Monday, April 11, 2011

The Great Carry Panic Redux

Well, it seems we've finally gotten to the bottom of the "risk off" rationale today. The situation at Fukushima has been downgraded to a Category 7, which is the worst possible scenario. As far as I know, there is no "category 8". In our brief history of dealing with fission, 7 is as bad as its ever gotten. Read more here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-accident-assessment-officially-raised-maximum-level-7

I have a feeling that what we are about to see is a repeat of four weeks ago, when nuclear fears in Japan led to an unwinding of the yen "carry trade" and a steep selloff of all "risk" assets. Stocks, commodities, PMs. All down. For a reminder/refresher, read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/global-meltdown.html
And this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/buckle-up.html

So, if I'm right, we are about to see a de-leveraging trade occur again. Remember, I'm a big believer in pattern and trend so I went looking this evening for confluences that could tell us where and when we could/should do some dip buying. Look what I found!

First, take a look at this 12-hour silver chart. Note that "Carry Trade Panic #1" trimmed nearly $3 out of the price yet the trendline contained the selloff and, when cooler heads prevailed, silver continued on its merry way higher. The trendline currently resides in the area around 39 to 39.25.

39-39.25. Hmmm, now where have I seen that before? Coincidentally, 39-39.25 is the exact same area where we see solid support on this 2-hour chart. The most recent breakout-and-consolidation of silver was in the middle of last week. This area now acts as very stout support in this ongoing bull market. Isn't that nice and convenient. Oh how I wish I hadn't allowed myself to get knee-deep in the hoopla last Friday. My options account currently has a cash balance of just $236. Shit. If I had any available funds, I'd be backing up the truck at $39 silver.


So, I wonder if the same pattern exists in gold? Whaddayaknow?! It does! First, let's take a look at a 12-hour June gold chart. Again, laying the primary trendline through Carry Trade Panic #1, we get a support level somewhere between 1440 and 1445.
Gee, I wonder if the 2-hour chart confirms this level? You bet it does! In fact, diligent readers will recall that I've been predicting a retest of the 1445 level since gold finally broke out last week. See point #3 of this post: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/wednesday-pre-close.html
Here, take a look for yourself:

So, what does this all mean? I'm expecting this current selloff to continue as the financial markets are shaken by a renewed carry trade panic due to the recognition of the worsening situation at Fukushima. I expect silver to drop toward 39 and gold to drop toward 1445, probably as soon as tomorrow. At those prices, both would be screaming, short-term buys as recent history would suggest that the bounce from the trendline will carry gold toward 1500 and silver to 44.

If I'm right, we get a great chance to BTFD. If I'm wrong, the PMs just simply reverse, build a couple of beautiful FUBMs and rally from here. We'll be back above 1465 and 41 very quickly. As I type, we're back UP to 1460 and 40.25. Sounds like a win/win to me!

See you in the morning! TF

159 comments:

  1. Ok. I am officially a Turd addict now. I find myself Along the Watchtower many times daily now.

    Good work ! Buy with both hands.

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  2. But I thought the nuclear power and uranium sell off was just an overreaction? There's some pundits out there that deserve a swift kick in the balls for trying to talk people into buying their worthless crap.

    Yukon

    p.s. Yes I'm still angry about it.

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  3. I was getting worried about the decisive rout we had today, but this helps me see some sense in the all the selling. Does this mean you don't feel the EE had as much blame? I thought I detected a number of FUTF's in the charts from today.

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  4. And Dont forget to tell all your friends to buy physical. Just converted another 2 friends to "real money"

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  5. I wonder when all of these events would transpire. Another piece of news to the puzzle perhaps? Do you think that under current conditions it will just happen?

    Nikkei/Dow/Russel All down in the afterhours right now:

    http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

    Here we go again...

    It is getting a bit ridiculous, world is driven on news that rotates to keep everyone on their feet. It is not like the situation at Fukushima has crept up on them.

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  6. salacious: It would appear that The Cartel "front-run" the selloff this afternoon. $0.32 in one minute has EE written all over it.

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  7. Scott - Good evening. I was saying something similar on the old thread (THANKS Turd for giving us an over-night thread) about trotting out news. They have almost run out it seems to me, and the big one left is all out war with Iran.

    Salacious - I thought I saw the hand of the EE at work today too. And I am not one of those who always thinks that is what is going on. It was the shape of the attacks. Right now we seem to be getting higher lows on the one minute chart, so despite Turd's excellent and compelling analysis, I think we will creep up tonight so a manufactured down day can occur for the news cycle tomorrow. But the ratchet will keep ratcheting upwards.

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  8. oooooh. I have no dry powder and a drop to $39 would trigger such greed I'd be scheming how to access more money. Will have to leave the house and walk in the deep woods without my cell phone if $39.00 happens.

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  9. All out war with Iran is yesterday's news. Not sure if you've heard yet, but tomorrow's war you'll hear about soon is war with Pakistan.

    Yukon

    p.s. They have nukes so this should end well.

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  10. Yukon - war with Iran should be yesterday's news, but that won't prevent it from being used - no boots on the ground, or that new way of declaring war, getting the UN to declare a 'no fly zone'. There is escalation right around the corner. And you are absolutely right that war with Pakistan is the elephant in the room. That is the big one. And you are also right, it won't be pretty. Pakistan is fragile beyond belief - the thin veneer of civilization has rarely been so tightly stretched.

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  11. $236 is certainly enough to spring for Monday night beer! Meh, I'm down to my last $1601. That's enough to last all week and wake up next Monday!

    Let's party!

    The world is ending, after all.

    Whoo Hoo!

    (Only Canadian beer though - no need to torure ourselves with crap-lite in the end days!)

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  12. And that is why I'm investing so strongly now in North American (Canada/US) plays. Natural gas folks. I know some people think it's early, but I'm thinking it's well past due. Anyone investing throughout the world today in places like Africa is just taking on so much risk. Have you heard about or talked to someone in South Africa lately? I have. They're scared.

    There's all kinds of things going on in the world that we never hear about and it all comes down to a downtrodden young up and coming population with minimal prospects vs established wealthy older folks. Thank god it's in South Africa and not in North America right? Yeah, keep thinking that. Our time of increased age based conflict is coming soon as well.

    Yukon

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  13. exk bought high sold low i got so fubar'ed today

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  14. Raised some dry powder on Friday last...took off 20% SLW and 30% AXU/AXR...will keep my eyes and 'puter open!

    Bill

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  15. I found a fascinating site by the daughter of a nuclear physicist. She lives in Kiev and takes rides on her motorbike through the land of "the land of the wolves" Chernobyl dead zone. She has written a journal on what its like in there, who and what lives there and where and in what the cocktail of radiation lurkes. Surprisingly asphalt doesn't retain radiation so she's relatively safe to ride around. In terms of radiation plutonium is the king with a half life of 24,000 years. In her recent update journal on fukishima she notes --
    "Let's face it; with the lack of information coming from Japanese authorities, and so much going on behind the scenes we are like prisoners in proverbal Plato's cave who only see shadows of things from real life that is above the ground. Writing this volume is like putting a puzzle together. A puzzle with many bits missing because it is disaster in a making."
    "First they were telling about iodine-131, as if no other elements have been released.., always mention that half-life of iodine-131 is only eight days. They did it for a sake of winning a little time because general public believe that half life is time for chemicals vanish away and dissapear. Next step to introduce us Caesium, Ruthenium. Strontium... all marching one by one like on parade with Plutonium at the end. Place of honor on this parade of isotopes is solidly reserved for a king. Half life of Plutonium-239 is over 24,000 years. Unfortunately this information become available for general public when story is not longer on the news."
    elenafilatova.com

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  16. The USD is tumbling against the yen, and yet silver and gold are steady. That is bullish, n'est-ce pas? At least it means you are better sitting in silver than USD, and when the average person realizes that, away we go.

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  17. Some thoughts: Looks like "they" have chosen to let the dollar rally a little, to push commodities down. You see, Joe Smith doesn't understand the commodities market that much, but he does understand that his dollars are buying less each day, at the grocery store and at the pump. If the previous months scenario were to keep occuring, the FED would be caught red handed since they have been denying inflation forever. Can't let that happen, so we have our buddies at Goldman "close" their long commodities positions, the IMF comes in and downgrades the world, and all of a sudden crude is no longer at 110. Crisis averted...for now.

    What does that do to our precious little metals?

    They keep rallying, Joe Smith doesn't really care about the price of gold because he can keep his gas guzzling SUV and the price of milk is the same it has always been. Gold and silver keep appreciating, since they are being used as a protector of wealth.

    I also think stocks will take a bit of a hit, after all the stock market is risky.

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  18. Dr Jerome posted a comment the other day which really cut through the fog. if u missed it here it is again.
    "ON Adrian Douglass, I agree with his conclusions... It is reasonable to conclude that the bankers who invented fractional reserve banking and stretched it beyond sensible limits with fiat would also practice it with gold & silver (a much smaller market) and stretch it beyond reasonable limits. Turd, you and Harvey have me convinced that there is very little physical in any of these vaults... the COMEX and LMBA simply shuffle what little PM bullion there is around where it is needed today--with industrial users taking possession of of what they need. If other sovereigns are taking possession and moving it to their shores, what happens when industry can't get what they require? Perhaps we are already there.."

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  19. Can silver carry radioactivity? just askin...

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  20. Just a thought that ran through my head while discussing the market selloff that will eventually occur:

    This video has a nice hypothesis on how Japan's economic situation will ruin global GDP. It was posted earlier and I tend to agree with his lower GDP assessment, which should (if it were a free market) induce another crash. The possibility for this along with the liquidity crisis with QEII ending in June ties in nicely for either a big "correction" or a new bailout program.

    http://goldsilver.com/video/we-have-until-july-at-latest-even-a-caveman-can-see-it-michael-c-ruppert/

    Here are my thoughts just thinking ahead:

    Remember, the end goal of this currency war is to have a global currency run by the same banking elite, but in an even more consolidated (credit-based?) and more monopolized way.

    As of late, we have seen the UN exercise its bold new "humanitarian" efforts to "bring peace to the world." Just so happens, that peace comes through war, in which all of the western empires and their respected banking lords get to show off how much they "strive for democracy." What I am getting at is the U.N. is asserting itself to a global government role, playing the democracy card in a room full of criminals.

    My thoughts that I wanted to mention where...

    Since this has become a "global market failure," I am hypothesizing that the solution may very well involve "global banks."

    I will assume that the majority of people in the world do not know what the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and BIS (Bank of International Settlements) are, or that they even exist. People are catching on to QE I/QE II, and will be hesitant if QE III comes out in the same fashion after another market crash. I don't know if people will be begging for another QE program that the FED stopped inducing a market crash. Remember perception is king...

    Could we be starting to phase into the importance of the IMF/BIS with a "world bailout" that is worded with such doublespeak such as "The Patriot Act."

    I personally am looking for something different than QE, even though it will end up having the same result, as it will just be money printing or phantom credit extensions.

    Gotta think out of the box in these days, don't expect things to be as planned ever. Always keep your mind thinking.

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  21. I'm looking for $37-$37.50 to back the truck up, so i hope the Turd is wrong here. When we broke $30 we quickly hit $31 and then back down to $27 and didn't get back up to $31 again for 6 weeks. Then we messed around between $34 and $37 for awhile and then finally broke and went up in a hurry!

    So a 10% haircut again and that slut BM better pucker every hole she's got cause she's gonna get fucked as we get to $50 in a hurry.

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  22. Interesting SLW tidbit:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Randy-Smallwood-Succeeds-prnews-1540404503.html?x=0&.v=68

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  23. I hope we did not cause you an inordinate amount of consternation today. I enjoy our little banter, Mr. Ferguson.

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  24. We're discussing the nuclear story on a forum I moderate...thetreeofliberty.com The last two or three pages has been rich. http://74.39.184.126/vb/showthread.php?t=133606

    I wish everyone well with their trades. If you don't have the physical, I'd be thinking about a transition in that direction....soon.

    BB

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  25. Rui

    Utah has restored gold / silver eagles as the legal tenders. However, a one-ounce gold eagle would be worth $50, namely the face value. Someone (I believe it was Ryan Paplava) called the law a voluntary confiscation program.

    Could someone please tell me a good place to store my 1000-ounce silver bars ( having taken delivery)? A depository, allocated account etc. Caanda would be preferred. US is ok, too.

    Thanks!

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  26. @Blythe

    Not a bit sweetheart. We smelled you slither into the room and stepped aside for a small haircut. Give us all you got babe. The lower you take it the better we like it you magificent reptilian bitch.

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  27. Scott -I think you are on to something. Instead of a Fed QEn+1 to infinity, what about a sort of global bailout that introduces a new digital global fixed currency. Another insane attempt to fix a price, whether through gold or collusion. So the IMF somehow eats US and EURO and JPY debt. Just rambling but I see how this fits nicely with using catastrophe to introduce a global currency. And absolutely nobody has heard of the BIS. Amazing. I was stunned when I found out about all this stuff, and then it seemed so obvious that I didn't even realize I was drifting into conspiracy.

    Ouch on the charts.

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  28. Dollar falling against the Yen.

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  29. Hi Blythe,

    Just another day in the ROK. Thanks for checking in though. Shall we expect another fire sale tomorrow?

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  30. You don't really think that's BM, do you? That'd be too good.

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  31. Watcher -- thanks for sharing the link. Very interesting reading. Seems like you've got a good group of folks there too - any converts to TF yet?


    Sleep well (-ish) my friends. Tomorrow ought to be interesting.

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  32. It is the internet - it could be a twelve year old. I cry nonsense.

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  33. Monkeys are at work tonight. 39.85 and falling. Tomorrow will bring some great buying ops.

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  34. @Blythe

    I got out of the way very early this morning when I saw you post at midnight saying to get prepared. Maybe you have a soft spot for us after all. Thanks for saving me loads of heartache and wads of cash, bitch. Maybe I'll buy into your ponzi the other 75% tomorrow.

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  35. Yep. No market manipulation here. Nothing to see here folks. Everyone just move along. Move along now. That's it keep moving...

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  36. @xty, @rodney

    Whoever it is saved me a lot of money cuz I got completely out this morning at 41.89, it might be her, who knows, who cares.

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  37. Glad to hear it Leonard. I'm kicking myself for not selling half my position at 41.80. How did you put it? "Loads of heartache and wads of cash."

    "Bitch."

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  38. A fresh update from Santa:

    Posted: Apr 11 2011 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: April 11, 2011 at 10:32 pm
    Filed under: General Editorial
    My Dear Friends,
    Today was full of business meetings in New York. Having spent 27 years on Wall Street, getting me into that city is not easy. When duty calls however, who am I to argue.
    I watched the gold market today somewhat displaced from the action. In fact it is via a CME app on an iPhone. A few times I was asked a question, but my mind was on gold. I had to on more than one occasion ask for the question to be repeated.
    What I saw impressed me. All during the USA night gold held its highs nicely. The trend certainly confirmed that the drama of closing down the US government shined the light of day on the over the top US debt position.
    Today was an operation in the gold market because it was scary for it to have held its high. Just as the Exchange Stabilization Fund thinks a strong dollar policy is that it dies in front of our eyes slowly, control of the gold market is only that it does not go straight up to $3000 – $5000.
    Gold is heading to $1500 plus, will get blasted back to these levels and then on to $1521, $1600 and $1650. There is no desire to stop it but only to make the climb challenging.
    Stay focused on debt. Do not accept any of the hawkish central bank governor’s MOPE. They simply like to hear their own voices and to see their sketches in the Journal.
    There is no practical way to drain the liquidity put in by QE everywhere in Western World finance. The operative word is PRACTICAL. Academically there are many ways with the risk inherent of bombing the weak recovery and running the Western World into a depression of all time.
    Alf and Martin may well be right with their predictions of gold going to $3000 to $5000 and maybe beyond.
    Regards,
    Jim

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  39. We all love you, Mr. Turd, and I'm proud to be a dingleberry on your blog.

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  40. i'm sure glad i sold off @41.50 but not so glad that i bought back $1 lower @ 40.50. Anyway will continue from here to buy on dip all the way down to $30

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  41. @Trading Arcade: keep the faith. Marginal errors in entry points are inevitable. Just watch your next buy levels to average out ur earlier buys.

    All the best!

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  42. Turd,
    thanks for the timely post from Santa. Just like the real Santa, he always brings a smile to my face. And if we're good, we'll get our presents.

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  43. Quick! Silver is on sale! 39.99, get while it's hot, will not last long at these prices!!!

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  44. Key carry trade pair (AUDJPY) turning around here - up 0.5% from lows, carrying equity markets up, as usual. Looks like that's helping to stabilise oil and PMs, too. Hope I didn't speak too soon!

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  45. Yukon,

    Excellent points. The seeds for age/generational conflict in this country are already well sown.

    Young folks are graduating college in unprecedented debt slavery with terrible job prospects. And at the same time boomers are starting to retire, expecting this younger gen to pay for all the benefits that they have been "promised".

    I am half way between both groups so I get to see both sides of the coin. And they both have valid but opposing perspectives. There is no way this friction can be shaken out without one of the sides getting seriously burned.

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  46. Santa's reiterations used to seem sharp but I have heard him say the same thing so many times it now seems dull.
    I do not see the usd/jyp cross deteroriating the way it did 3 weeks ago. Additionally, anyone with half a brain knew that reactor situation was going to get far worse.
    I want the Turd to be right and respect that he most likely will. But I think a $4 + correction from $41.98 is not unreasonable to expect.

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  47. Turd,

    Life is not a trade. Ita actually about fundamentals.

    I told your board last night, there has been a policy shift, this is nit Blythe Masters on her period.

    Go and read my posts. I said we are going to be smashed, I also said the kick to 42 was a setup. Go read the posts junior.

    There is a policy shift. If they want 32 dollar silver, its going there.

    Its about food, and 10 countries in MENA>

    This is not that cunt dicking around. WE are heading deep in the 30s for silver, and perhaps the 1200s in gold.Its policy, and they can put these prices wherever the fuck they like. Go to the dictionary and look up "humility".


    Life is not a trade bud.

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  48. $40.00/oz on the way to $200+. Not tomorrow of course. Or next week. Someday....and then, we won't be thinking of silver in terms of $$$, but rather as what it is by its own merits. BTFD.

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  49. mcinerneytw: great find with that website, intersteing even just for something to take my mind off the slide down today. A good reminder there are worse things than a commodities selloff.

    Blythe: if that is you, don't listen to these other angry residents trying to villanize you with spurious and juvenile insults. You have a job to do, and you do it well right?
    Join us. We all know you read the turd. The pay might not be anything like what you get now, but you will sleep better. What you are doing is hurting more than just the united states. Just because you are rich doesn't mean you have to be evil. Its not too late.

    The cabal you work for are committing crimes that make pedophiles look like jaywalkers, and you to them are just a tool to do their bidding and be discarded when the warranty expires. What is a worse crime, abusing a child or watching them starve to death only because it makes you a profit? At least the pedophile can say they have physiological problems and are sick, Mr. Dimon is doing it for money alone. History will remember you Sally Jess, one way or the other.
    Its not too late, Join Us.

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  50. If we get down to 39, I'll buy with hands and fists. It's fricking 3$ off the highs.. I have bought even 1,5$ dips as recently as a month ago.

    Would have bought already at 40$, but I had to book some profits and don't really wanna stretch my margin too far.. unless it's a 100% buying opportunity.

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  51. Another thought that I am sure has been mentioned on the web, slightly hinted at by SilverGoldSilver.

    Re: $1,000,000,000 bet on SLV below 27$ by 6/15/2011

    You know, SLV going below 27$ in 2.5 months could happen while silver going to the moon. Remember, SLV is a fraudulent vehicle that will eventually go to 0. We have this delivery month in April for Comex Gold (0 deposits to the dealer) for 245,000 oz of gold still, and then we have May which will surely be interesting (144,000 open contracts right now). I would imagine it is surely possible that SLV hits the fan before Mid July thus the put position pays out massively?

    Just throwing that out there, probably not right but worth noting in my opinion.

    Interesting the bet is for July, as I always have had a belief that when SLV, GLD, or Comex goes down... that all of them will go down. And when all of these go down, it will surely bring havoc on the market (the big crash?) which would lead to programs that people may not accept now, but would in this situation. I can see it now...

    "Private central banks have ruined the country, let the U.N. Banks control monetary policy for economic security."

    Now go back and tie this in with the world bailout plan I suggested earlier...

    I still have this "Federal Reserve Note" is dead by the end of 2012 at latest theory... and the timing of these looming financial meltdown situations are all stacking up for one big show eventually. As for when this is going to be, wouldn't everyone like to know.
    -
    Scott

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  52. vamoose,
    what gives you such confidence that you are right?

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  53. At 12 Pacific where i live i told you sycophants we were walking straight into a smashup.


    I went into exhaustive detail.

    At present we are ten percentinto the mission.


    Do i give flying fuck. Nope, the US dollar is headed to zero.

    Dont buy the dip... you dolts. Thats trader horseshit.

    Silver is likely to kiss 32. We will take 150 dollars off gold.

    Fucking grow up. I told you. Read my posts.

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  54. @Vamoose

    So when was it ever policy to have the PMs at these levels? What was that "policy" brainiac?
    Whenever you have to remind people of your past postings, you lose all crediblity. The "policy" shift should be toward retoring the dollar. That would cure all ills. Vamoose, the only junior I see in the room at the moment is you.
    "Life is not a trade." What jackel would even presume that anybody's life was about a trade?
    Please return to farmville ASAP.

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  55. Silver can be placed at the whim of any solvent adult.

    Food prices must be smashed, or we lose Saudi, if we lose saudi, we lose the system.

    ERgo, we will smash the commodity sector, paste the fuck out of it.

    I told the board this 36 hours ago.


    This is no JPM raid you juvenile delinquents, this is a policy shift.

    Now grow up for jesus sake. silver 32, gold 1190.

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  56. Vamoose, here is how I know you are either a troll or worse severely uniformed. If you are a troll, you better work at it a bit more, its pathetic. If you are uniformed, then maybe you shouldn't speak with such confidence.

    Gold to 1200$ while silver heads back into the low 30s?

    Is this a joke?

    Gold is suppose to lose 250$ while silver loses less than 10$? Tell tale sign of a troll or someone who has not done enough research...

    Do you have any idea what you just implied here?

    And what would happen to the physical markets at these low prices? I am sure you are factoring this into your thoughts.

    Bottom line: I'm watching you, and your dis-information tries to play fear instead of logic.

    If your primary reason is "b/c she wants it to be there," you are clearly uneducated and trying to provoke fear. The fact that you think this is up to Blythe Masters is funny in the first place. She is only a front-woman for a much more pressing threat to all of our survival.

    I hold no respect for your arguments without evidence and will no longer feed you.

    This post is meant to point out the troll, not to start arguments about who is right.

    Long Live the Truth

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euaAPC1-PmY

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  57. vamoose,

    That would take a hella of a lot of shorts, that would require no one on the other side of the trade and the EE would need to actually provide Ag at the end on May, which indecently they don't have. Let me add, that with the upcoming margin compressions, the reduction of global GDP due to Japan and the pause of QE, is this not all bullish for PMs?

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  58. Vamoose reminds me of "Buck Shot Bill" from the movie young guns. He walks in with gusto then just blasts away the Bill the Kid gang.

    Lol, very entertaining, but speaks out of both sides of his mouth.

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  59. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  60. I wish it would go to $32. Or even better...how about $2? I've got a void of a three-car garage to fill.

    "Trader horseshit". Yep....ok. I'm not the asshat trying to call a top to a long, long, long trend. Correction? Sure, why not. Kick the can? Sure again. Does paper silver go to zero when the sheeple catch on to the fraud? Why not.....but when the global debt implodes and futile easing once again propagates, physical pms will skyrocket. It's the same story that is centuries old....

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  61. And if silver does reach 32.00 USD, I'm buying another 1000 oz, LOL! Considering it should be over 100.00 USD if adjusted for inflation. But anyway, the EE can take paper silver to wherever they want to take it, real silver, WILL NEVER GO TO 32.00 per oz USD! That I can promise!

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  62. Thanks Turd, awesome as always!

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  63. Vamoose said:

    "Identical, since these subhumans breed like rabbits."

    Ouch. Any Saudis in the room that would like to speak to this?

    Hey - vamoose - you can be right without being nasty.

    Truth is non of us know what tomroow will bring for sure. Just ask the Japanese.

    Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

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  64. vamoose, what a self-righteous douchebag you are. Claiming victory on a 1-hour chart for a target which is 20% lower, is childish and you tell us to grow up. Really?

    Just because you posted you expected a pullback after an epic run doesn't make you obi-wan. I and several others said we agreed with you that it was overbought not because you posted some mind blowing original thought.

    You mentioned Turd learning some "humility." Do you even know what that means? The irony! How about karma? Burn bridges much?

    You've been burned very bad in the past. I can smell it. Now kindly, piss off.

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  65. obviously you people are scared shitless. i have been in this business since 1963.

    none of you irrespective of the turd on a riff understand clue one, you are a mutually self congratulatory group of dolts.


    i made an incredibly exhaustive case last night for what we see before us today.

    you are chumps, thats what we called you in the 70s, silver 30 to 32, gold 1150 to 1200.

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  66. @ Scott

    Soros has been pushing a world currency - and all the attendant world government organizations that that would require! - since the fall of the USSR. His Open Society Institute was just a cover to secretly spread his tentacles into every corner of the globe along with his subversive ideology. The only thing anyone needs to know about him is that he is a megalomaniac with visions of himself personally ruling the world.

    How absurd is it that Soros, and the economists and bankers he invited, would meet at Bretton Woods to discuss a world currency without any mandate from the very people whom it would effect? Who do these people think they are? Hasn't the European experiment with the Euro taught them that you can't have a shared currency without shared government institutions with the power to dictate budgets? Whoops!!! Did I really say that?

    And look at the media outlets he funds - they're all corrupt and run by activists of the most deplorable character. From Media Matters to MoveOn.org - they are all low lifes, i.e., just a reflection of Soros himself.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Okay one more I couldn't resist!

    I recommend people don't do as I am doing and keep the banter up with him, as there are people (not saying him but it is possible) that come to shake communities up. Please do not get into an argument with him, whoever he turns out to be. As we can see from his spelling and vocabulary... he is either foreign, a computer program, a child, or just immature. Either-way, no need to worry about what he says, for he pointed out his own ignorance best here:

    At present we are ten percent into the mission.
    --
    Oh really? Being generous and looking at the highest levels that gold/silver has been:

    41.98 to 40 is ~5%
    1478 to 1455 is ~1-2%

    Either you are a troll,
    Or you are immature and just want attention by saying contrary points to the common viewpoints on this blog.

    Okay all smiles for me now, just can't let bad algebra be not highlighted! Then again, algebra is hard stuff... much more complicated than all of the factors relating to the PM trade ;)

    ReplyDelete
  68. i have ten times more money than all of you combined. probably 50 times.

    there is a policy shift. Commodities get crushed. Gold and silver get pasted. not for long, i just laugh.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Vamoose,
    As a wise man told me awhile back...
    "Stop harping.
    Maybe you're right...maybe you're wrong.
    You made your point" Stop now.
    And, by the way, you're an angry person,
    so get some help, or PISS OFF.
    Peace everybody.
    Think about our Asian brothers and sisters right now.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Vamoose,

    The wealthy don't inform others of their plans, that how they stay wealth, LOL!

    I gonna try this one more time, maybe you are slow, drunk, dimwitted or actually are a child?

    But, you understand that commodity prices have risen due to inflation, caused by excessive liquidity as a result of poor fiscal policy by most central banks in order to bail out TBTF banks?

    ReplyDelete
  71. He has stacks and stacks of 20's.
    He won't have time to post soon.
    He'll be with Blythe and Ruprecht doing hookers and blow to get rid of all that paper.
    Don't expect Blythe to sell you any silver with those 20's BUD DY

    ReplyDelete
  72. @ Malcolm:

    Just a FYI:
    The Pentagon hires people to troll the internet and to create arguments to distract from intellectual discussion:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euaAPC1-PmY

    Remember when Turd said "all of the top callers will roll out of the water works?" Well, we have to remember that Turd's comment system is relatively anonymous and mainstream.

    In the future, I know I sound paranoid... but watch out for people who build up reputations and then use it to invoke anger. It will surely happen, but hopefully the Turd will have his finger on the button (or more likely someone who is running it for him) to use better judgment.

    We as a board may as well get used to dealing with the trolls now. There will be more.

    However, not saying vamoose is 100% troll, but it sure does look that way.

    Look how the conversation switched from deep conversation to talking about a troll. Whoever he is, he won in the short term battle from good comments being said and wasted energy on defeating a useless troll.
    -
    /end chat rant

    ReplyDelete
  73. Vamoose, how would it be done. What markers do we look for? Has this "shift" been done in last 10 years outside bullion banking?

    ReplyDelete
  74. vamoose,

    You could be right. Commodities could be crushed for a short time. But frankly it's a little weird thinking that someone working since 1963 (that would make you around 70 years old?) writes these kinds of posts. They are indicative of a young, impatient person. Similarly, I find it hard to believe that anyone working since 1963 would make such basic math errors. It's not impossible, but not very probable. And the typing as well as the boasting. Honestly. You just give away the game.

    So, what's the real story, cookie?

    ReplyDelete
  75. i would not fuck around at 39, when its on a bullet mission to 32.

    is it going to 100 plus, probably a large plus well beyond that , dont be dicking around for a skinny buck.
    i have several tons of physical silver, anyone ever lift a thousand ounce bar at 60,

    itsa 62 pounds, and its not like your suitcase to europe, its the concentration of weight, its bloody awkward, ...


    look, if they want to fuck with silver in the 30s, kinndly observe this large pink thing,


    i am indifferent as to how many amewrican dollars you might be inclined to give me today. for one of my 62 pound brutes, I could give a flying fuck. Its not for sale for your poison paper, and there is no price. I just laugh at these juvenile machinations.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Vamoose it sounds like you've just been waiting for something to happen to unleash the pasting.

    Sounds like the something was a policy shift to prevent SA from the horrors of high food prices.

    Who is making this policy and how are you sure that it shifted?

    ReplyDelete
  77. vamoose, just your usual troll. Best to ignore him.

    ReplyDelete
  78. @ Scott

    "Look how the conversation switched from deep conversation to talking about a troll. Whoever he is, he won in the short term battle from good comments being said and wasted energy on defeating a useless troll."

    Scott, you're really smart. This is not a waste of time. It's an opportunity to learn about possible con jobs, how to spot them, analyze them, and evaluate them.

    It's not enough to be great at math and economics and finance and all the other book learning in the world. Ultimately, it's about learning to read people. I'm pretty lousy at it and have paid dearly on a few occasions, but I'm learning. My husband is very good at it and I'm trying to follow his example. It's very hard for me because my default is to give everybody the benefit of the doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  79. @SilverBleve ... "If only you knew the power of the Dark Side.".

    Folks, let Vamoose & Blythe speak. They aren't called ThePowersThatBe for nothing. If they think it's time to sacrifice the markets then they will. Question is - will the Algos let them do it? Perhaps we find out who is really in charge.

    ReplyDelete
  80. It's usually quiet around here at this time.

    vamoose,
    good, you are forcing us to think.

    Yes, I would also like to know: outside of the bullion banks keeping gold to <20% increase per year and the silver games at COMEX, any examples of policy makers successfully controlling commodity prices?

    ReplyDelete
  81. @Scott:

    "Look how the conversation switched from deep conversation to talking about a troll."

    On that note....what I wonder about is the ceiling on paper silver....i.e., how high is possible before the fraud is well known....

    ReplyDelete
  82. @ Irene

    Scary when you say things like this and then I remember this from when I was in Kentucky...

    http://joemygod.blogspot.com/2010/10/kentucky-rand-paul-supporters-attack.html

    Talk about staged...

    I love the opening line:

    "Rand Paul supporters clearly don't like a woman who tried to confront them tonight."

    --
    I will be investigating Soros soon to look for hints on a global currency being implemented (I haven't looked into the Bretton Woods part II yet).

    I have heard a lot about Soros, but my view on him is he is just a puppet and I really don't care what he says. I don't think he is a "big player," and could care less what he invests in. However, his organizations that he funds I surely should be doing more research on, as they seem to play a role in how the world plays out (see the attempt of with the moveon.org staged curbstomp).
    -
    Any favorite links would be appreciated :)
    -
    I love your humor in the way you disclose things.

    Scott

    ReplyDelete
  83. Personally it's hard for me to understand the idea of gold being a "risk trade" in uncertain times. I would call the dollar a bigger"risk trade" at this point in time.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Yukon, I too have a Black Swan Natgas raft. Volatility and black swans will make navigation almost impossible.

    Scott I also have $10 2012-13 slv "default" puts. Plus dry powder, semtex, willie pete, and bouncing bettys ready to go. 70/30

    I do not dismiss Vamoose because of his abrasiveness, protect your flanks, rear, and supply lines.

    ReplyDelete
  85. vamoose said...

    "i have several tons of physical silver"

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    ReplyDelete
  86. @turd Scott is right about vamoose. You have to keep this board under control or it will sink like so many others.
    it's good to have diversification but it has to be sincere.
    his comment aobut his moeny is totally assinine-

    ReplyDelete
  87. @ SilverBullet

    Interesting, I have never really stopped and thought what the price at which paper silver and physical silver truly diverges. If I had to guess, it is going to revolve around the trio of empty promises defaulting, specifically the Comex Futures.

    Currently, backwardation has drifted a bit off of the futures in silver for the next 6-9 month (from what I remember from Harvey's report), but instead of the levels we saw last month. Last month the May contract was in backwardation to the March contract by the slightest of all bits reported by Trader Dan.

    If you follow silvergoldsilver, he suggests that "The Fed" (who is really behind JP Morgan/HSBC/etc..) can supply unlimited paper to keep the scheme alive (the beast will do whatever it takes to survive). This easy amount of money I am referring to I hypothesize could be used towards buying the farther out silver futures to bring them out of backwardation. The people who really want physical silver from COMEX are in the front month, not the later months.

    I remember also reading somewhere that JP Morgan/HSBC had initiated a long position sometime during the recent run-up. Could it have been in these front months to prop up the paper market?

    What this all gets at is we would have to figure out the time of the physical default, and then conjecture a fiat price that would be at.

    If I had to take a guess, It surely could happen within the next two delivery months for silver (or even this delivery month in gold). What that price will be, that's an interesting thought.

    @ Irene

    Thank you for recognizing the importance of understanding one another through using emotional intelligence. I am a very big believer in emotional intelligence, and I surely do not discount a learning opportunity to deal with adversaries, no matter which the situation.

    I have learned the most important things in my life through putting my self in other people's shoes. In person, I am always looking for the "real story" behind the words. Empathy and self-reflection can lead to a wonderful mindset.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Little talk of what the food supply situation is like in Asia.
    Can anybody comment on how supplies are getting to the population?

    ReplyDelete
  89. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  90. oh man , how do I change settings so everyone's posts don't go to my e-mail? I like reading what everyone has to say, but not twice!

    ReplyDelete
  91. More money printing on the way.

    April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said the March 11 earthquake may result in a larger hit to the economy than previously estimated, indicating the government’s greater appetite for stimulus one month after the disaster.

    ReplyDelete
  92. @ Lord Koos. you are absolutely right but "they" want people to think of gold as risky and avoid it. and guess what they have. that's why they always trot out that 1980 $850 flash high-bla bla bla-only short coverers bought at that price.
    Gold is as safe as it gets its called "exters pyramid"-check it out

    ReplyDelete
  93. Sorry all, for a minute there I thought it was Rick James grinding his boots into Turds furniture yelling, "Fuck yo couch!" Funny yes, but that shit gets called out.

    I've always admired persistence though. Baghdad Bob comes to mind. That's a team player. Time will tell and gauntlets are always good sport.

    On with the show!

    ReplyDelete
  94. @ Scott

    Yes, the biggest lessons I learned was to identify and see my own weaknesses and ingrained beliefs. Question your assumptions! I was always good at that in economics and business and lousy at it when I had to look at other people.

    As for Soros, he is no bit player. He was the $$ behind Obama, period. His stooges, from David Fenton (Fenton Communications) to Wes Boyd and Joan Blades (MoveOn.org founders-husband and wife team) caused major, if not irreparable, damage to the U.S.A. It's too late in the night to go on about it, but I am just jotting down the very tip of the iceberg here.

    ReplyDelete
  95. vamoose is the shit. he speaks a lot of truth about the self congratulatory nature of the bullshit here. he is shaking up the groupthink and I am all for it.

    hilarious how the most poisionous on the board, the lemmings, appeal to turd to get rid of an independent thinker...

    it's not that you have to agree with vamoose...he could be wrong, as I bet he would admit...this may not go to 32...turd may call it at 39.25

    silver is crazy overbought, and his points about SAUDI are dead fucking right (wake up younglings)

    ReplyDelete
  96. Hi Turdle

    I'm not surprised the Japanese are going to print more yen. But I'm sorry that they have to.

    ReplyDelete
  97. also, board wide ban on talking about emotional intelligence please god

    ReplyDelete
  98. irene please read soros books before parroting beck

    ReplyDelete
  99. Tim,

    Hey Tim, are you out there? Thanks for posting the web site info for the ATB 5 oz. coins. (http://www.jackhuntatb.com/) I hope they, or one of the primary dealers, start selling their hoard. It would be great to catch a deal like you did.

    My apologies to you for getting a bit flippant when I didn't see a link to your claims.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @ viking

    You have some nerve saying that knowing nothing about me. I've seen about 15 minutes of Beck in my life.

    As it happens, my husband is a journalist and personally interviewed David, Wes, Joan and many others (Arianna Huffington, etc.).

    This info is firsthand. They thought he was one of "them" and opened up totally to him. I transcribed many of the interview tapes so I know what I'm talking about.

    ReplyDelete
  101. me thinks, some people just speak to speak!

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  102. Vamoose, you know you sound kind of like a crazy person when you forget to take your meds...

    Great, you made 1 call that has been right for a grand total of 1 day. You had a 50/50 chance of making that call. If you'd been wrong, I'm sure you'd be back another day to try again. And when you finally got it right, you could stamp your foot and yell from the rooftops that you're a messiah.

    Look, nobody gives a shit how much silver you (purportedly) have. Nobody gives a shit that you won a coin toss on Friday. And the more you talk down to people on this board, the less respect all of us have for you. Jeez, you'd think that an 80 year old would know better.

    You've said your peace, now shut the hell up. We're all adults, and can make our own decisions without you pounding your views into us like some insane woodpecker.

    Now, why don't you do us all a favor: Be true to your namesake and...vamoose!

    ReplyDelete
  103. big whoop irene

    have you read soros' books? no. you haven't.

    who does your journalist husband work for?

    your one of 'them' comment--is that code for democrats?

    if you are partisan either to right or left you don't understand what is really going on

    mwah

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  104. viking,

    I'm all for speaking your mind and having differing opinions. Something can always be learned from good debates.

    But I read vamoose's posts last night, found his points of view interesting, and he mostly wasn't rude, malicious or vulgar.

    But somebody must have peed in his cheerios sometime today. I guess since there weren't enough people kneeling at the alter of VAMOOSE and giving him praise, he get's all pissed off. Debates will fall on deaf ears when that crap starts.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @ Viking

    No, "them" is not democrats. You're just a rude person. There's no reason to make assumptions about me, what you think I do or do not understand, etc. As for reading Soros, buddy, you just don't want to go there.

    /I'm out

    ReplyDelete
  106. i liked his posts today. most people are pussies with no opinion. i also like rude malicious and vulgar people like Dr. Hunter S. Thompson.

    plus vamoose is clearly a drinker. i don't trust people that don't drink, aside for a few AA buddies...

    what I don't like are: emotional mewlers, partisan hacks of either stripe, rank and file mediocrities, younglings that talk to much without saying anything, people that are 1/2 right, people who adhere to a 'book' either Koran or Bible

    what I liked about vamoose was his saudi perspective--its all about the house of saud...the mena revolution has not been priced in...

    I also like native american spirituality much better without the dogmatic bullshit

    now whether or not TPTB can still control pitch, i dunno, can't see the future

    cheers punx

    ReplyDelete
  107. irene

    i so want to go there. i'm not making assumptions, I'm asking you questions.

    1. what "them" were you talking about?

    2. what books by soros have you read?

    i'm not being rude, you're being evasive because i busted you

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  108. Hmm.. backwardation pretty much gone. Let's see if this is a condition that is about to stay. I'd say silver will slip in and out of contango for maybe the next year or so, then backwardation will become chronic - only a price increase of a two digit multiple would solve this issue for the time being, because so little silver is used in most industrial applications and the price impact on the final product is so low that it will take a massive increase in the silver price to decrease industrial demand even slightly. And demand now is far higher than supply.

    ReplyDelete
  109. The wicked flee when no one pursues! Gas bag trolls may pucker their sphincters for some temporary control but soon nature takes it's course. Shit runs out deep!! Just keep accumulating your real money and let the gas bag trolls showing up drown in their own shit!!

    ReplyDelete
  110. Peace to you Afrum...

    life is short.
    NO time to waste, especially at these critical times.

    Must sleep and awaken to more yield

    Look back at March... same timing...same week...same "correction"....
    the market is going sideways and has adjusted to more "liquidity".

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  111. Nothing new to a 3% correction... we've seen these saw-tooth patterns as the PM market plateaus near OEX. Then, it will correct down near FutExp.

    no new policy change either...

    ReplyDelete
  112. having a differing opinion but saying "eff you" to the person whose opinion differs from you doesn't lend any credibility to your own opinion or to yourself as a mature adult.

    just another insignificant opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  113. ...and we're climbing again!
    but for how long?

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  114. $40 support is strong so far.. Tested 5 times if I'm correct. Meanwhile a nice bounce is taking place. Let's see I we can get it through $40.87.. Sure looks like it.

    Today will be very interesting indeed!

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  115. Chna has reportedly been buying EUR and pledging to support Spain.

    Should help keep the POSX down

    ReplyDelete
  116. Thank god, we're up...that bitch almost gave me a heartattack yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  117. What a jerk. Really. With no class or respect for Mr. Turd and probably drunk or stoned (64 makes him a sixties hippie), he has the gall to come on here and call Mr. Ferguson out.

    32, 1190...really? Wanna bet one of those bars, or are you up drinking so late because you're deep in your shorts? No wonder you hate him.

    Mr. Armstrong forecasts a June low for the metals, but no need to be a jerk about it.

    The world's nations are swimming in liquidity and the US is sinking in trillions of dollars of debt and food stuffs are going thru the roof and you think that is going to change because of Saud?

    Maybe the Fed will surprise with a rate hike....I said maybe. Lets see, what did the rate hike do for Euro gold??? Will a rate hike change the physical market?

    The collapse already happened in 2008. Nothing can save the fiat endgame, and the physical market will never drop to 32 or 1190.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Poor Turd, bless his heart. He thinks he may be wrong. Oh NOES!!

    Just because all those people say it, doesn't make it so, sil vous plait :-)

    ReplyDelete
  119. Amazing how a little dip (And buying opportunity)
    brings out the Trolls from beyond. Just 2 weeks ago we were at $36, we have now reached a high of $42!!! sure there is resistance there..GOOD! I want to load up on more bargains. People whine all the while you have quadrupled your investment if you bought low, which I have. At this stage price does not even matter to me, I just want to keep padding my already profitable investment.

    Cheers to all of you have a very good morning and profitable day as well.

    Bill

    ReplyDelete
  120. Good Morning. I will go back and read, having just skimmed. Earlier in the life of this blog, I have commented on the use of foul language. Vamoose and Viking should be ignored. They have got people rattled, and through crass and vulgar behaviour will ruin our conversations.

    Looks like both silver and gold survived the night. 40.50 and 1460. Do not listen to fake 'blythes'. Turd has warned plenty of times about disinformation and trolls. Not saying there might not be a correction (but I certainly wouldn't wait to buy at 32) but don't get shaken from your position by an anonymous fool who cannot express himself without coarse language. I know I sound old fashioned, but you must ignore them.

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  121. Just got a package from Great Panther. Happy times. I bought these @ $36.00/oz all-in. Let's not forget how far we have come in a short time.

    Canadians (at least in Ontario) need not worry about paying duty/taxes on their order.

    Although Vamoose is less than eloquent and rambles on an on about the same thing, he does make one good point (and one that I've been thinking about for a long time); it would appear to me that low comodities prices would be in essence a matter of national Security as far as the US government may be concerned. There is little doubt that soaring food prices are resulting in instability globally and especially in countries that would have significant ties to the US. I also ask myself how free are the markets/ what tools does the government have to combat from within?

    As many have posted here, while silver and gold increasing it is short term great for us, but if that continues and comodities go to the moon.. what then?

    ReplyDelete
  122. The divergent opinion was a breath of fresh air. Maybe you get to a certain age and think "fuck the manners"

    Forget the style, just look at what he's saying. And what he's saying makes sense re: saudi.

    Who the jimminy cricket knows what it means for the price of silver in the short term. How can anyone really know. I don't know why we would try and ban someone for saying we're looking at a pull back if that's what they believe. Make up your own damn decision.

    MULLET OUT

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  123. Xty - I've just been catching up on the overnights as well. Methinks Viking and Vamoose share the same DNA. Seems they both Vamoosed together, which is good.

    I've seen good blogs get whacked by the "changelings"... those that post repeatedly under different handles. Perhaps the new blog will have a sign-in with a profile lock so that doesn't occur, it it's technically possible. Then, over time, folks become familiar with names and such.

    ReplyDelete
  124. You MUST click on the link to see his illustration of the relation of silver and gold. Most excellent!

    Silver, the Canary in the Gold Mine
    By: Darryl Robert Schoon


    http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1302588180.php

    ReplyDelete
  125. Hey "Vamoose"- vamoose, OK? Bought at 14/850 so who f-n cares... So KMA!!!

    ReplyDelete
  126. SIlver has doubled in 6 months. It could have a bit of a pause.

    It doesn't have to be Blythe, NWO conspiracies, Gov't "policy", or anything else. A market that has doubled can take a rest. Sometimes it really IS that simple.

    ReplyDelete
  127. At the same time... looking at the charts I'm glad I had loads of FIAT to BTFD @ $38.06!! :)

    ReplyDelete
  128. I find it ironic that someone would call us sycophants. Gold and silver investors are a tiny minority in the Western world. Anywhere else we go, we're seen as bizarre, or crazy, or risk-taking. I don't know anyone in meatspace who believes like I do. So, I come here, and a couple of other places, for information-sharing and kinship. Groupthink? Whatever, dude. This is one of the few places where people actually *think*.

    ReplyDelete
  129. @Mister - I second that too!

    ReplyDelete
  130. Eric - yes. But when an anonymous poster calls you a sycophant etc., I suggest listening to other sources.

    Bill - no need to ban, just scroll and ignore.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Anyone besides me think Vamoose = Viking? Look at the vernacular, and the repeated same mistakes and style of writing. And, just so happens as soon as Vamoose stopped his rant, a guy named Viking picked up with the same tone picking fights with the same people.

    Just saying.

    Anyways -

    CFTC Meeting today, I am sure it will be useless and disappointing once again, but definitely worth watching for:

    Also, the Treasury budget is today @ 2pm EST. Does anyone know what to expect from this or is it a non-event?
    http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

    ReplyDelete
  132. I would rather be called a sycophant as opposed to a SOCIOPATH. And lord knows we have had our fill of those types.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Nations and their central banks are involved in the gold and silver market at this time. Some could care less about the Saudis....like Russia and their allies. Matter of fact, Russia would love nothing more than a revolution in SA in order to control the oil market. Who do you think is in the midst of the MENA uprisings?

    ReplyDelete
  134. Watching the early a.m. XAG action and enjoying more blue than red (on netdania).
    Stepping out in a bit for...an interview! Wish me luck (or skill if you prefer, have plenty of that too). Would love to get a bundle of new FRNs every 2 wks to swap in for more 100oz bars :)

    Won't be watching market much today, got stink bid of 39.25 in and am happy if we get there or carry on to the other side (41.25+). Still holding so I'm good either way.

    If we drop another 5% today, buy physical!
    You probably should even if we don't :)

    ReplyDelete
  135. Troll operating manual, very sophisticated, five waves of attack:

    http://digital.net/~gandalf/trollfaq.html#item8

    ReplyDelete
  136. So what do we think for today? Will we end up thinking "Ugghhh, more pain"? Or "Whew!, glad that's over!"

    ReplyDelete
  137. Eric - gold is back at 1465 so I am now thinking it might be a flatish day by the end, but with interesting volatility. And I think 40 is a pretty firm floor for silver and we might bounce off it a few more times.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Going by Trader Dan's chart:

    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/silver-8-hour-chart-update-1130-pm-cst.html

    I expect some consolidation this week ... interspersed with EE raids of course :-)

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  139. Good luck Pailin: interview + stink bid

    ReplyDelete
  140. I do think vamoose was intoxicated and posting. I don't care for run-on swearing.

    However I have both done and seen "out of the mouths of babes" insights. The piece about Saudi Arabia makes sense as others have noted. There are times when it's self-congratulatory here although I don't think it's a problem yet.

    Too bad he (is he a he?) couldn't have articulated more before passing out.

    Will be good to get his perspective after we don't go anywhere near $32 this week.

    ReplyDelete
  141. On the Saudi and commodity price correction thing... sure, the prices can obviously be manipulated. Happens every day, like a yo-yo. If TPTB want bigger drops they can certainly engineer them with the help of world banks and their central bank partners, certain guv'ments, moneychangers like GS and JPM as well as the stock exchange casinos themselves.

    But to think that the commodity and pm markets can be manipulated at will to arrive at set numbers consistently is to forget the size, scope and DEMAND of the physical products. Mining and growing takes time. Weather and geological conditions have their effect on production.

    Another minor detail: those pesky little people all over the world need to eat. Pretty much every day. Yep, gotta eat. If they can't eat, they riot. If they riot, they cost governments untold fiat dollars and if that goes on too long, their treasuries of precious metals and warehouses of commodities become leveraged. Or the 'rulers' themselves are taken out.

    My head hurts just considering the complexity of how the 'system' is so intertwined globally. My heart hurts when I consider the evil "system of things" we all live under in the world. My arms will hurt from buying if the price of pm's drops 8 percent.

    No matter how large or dubious or connected TPTB institutions and minions are, if they stay in front of the commodities and pm's to hold prices down unnaturally for too long, some of them will have "a religious experience" when the Demand Train runs over them.

    As so many wise ones have said, there will be violent swings in the market. Gold could drop (or rise) $300 in a day or two. I expect silver would follow suit.

    We will watch and - depending on our individual finances, circumstances and risk ability – we’ll balance buying and selling. Can't sell core holdings and miss a surge, and can't use all dry powder on all little dips.

    In the meantime, I’ll sit on core holdings, buy the big dips (trade all the dips if so inclined/talented) and be sure to keep dry powder.
    We have not yet seen what a global EE can do to shake most pm holders from their trees. There will be a whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on.

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  142. H'mmm...just caught up on the posts above and all I can say is....nothing, regarding vamoose.

    Don't get sucked into it. It feeds the flame of those who look to start a fires on here. It appears to me that we have some of those ZH Tourettes-like haters on here now and then.
    Enough said about that. I agree with Larry.

    When it's all said and done (soon I hope ) the Fukishima /Japan dissater will be a 8 and the scaling system will go up to 10 just to accomodate the severity of what is still developing. Scary stuff.

    The negative thing about options is the inability to play them or to lock in prices pre-market as well as post.
    I wanted to buy more USO when it was $108+ but that opportunity has passed today.

    Gold and silver at this point have blasted off again and as this debt ceiling narrative gathers momentum so to will Au/Ag to the next level.
    It's going to be bumpy thats for sure

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  143. A news release out of Claude Resources today. Nothing really "news" here. Just starting a drill program. I only point it out because it's the potential for the Madsen property that really excites me about Claude.

    http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2011/12/c3298.html

    Word Ver: mizarie
    Sounds like yesterday afternoon

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  144. Interesting posts, vamoose. Whether they cross a line I'll leave for others to judge; but I always appreciate a substantive view, especially one that presents something to consider that I hadn't been thinking of.

    I can understand the rationale. Can't stop greasing the money supply because can't afford higher interest payments, etc.; can't continue to because of societal instabilities that result. One strategy, then: continue with the loose money but use some of it to consistently hit and suppress commodity prices.

    Not too unlike a governmental subsidy, except it's one that discourages rather than encourages production. And there's the rub for me. With regard specifically to silver, there apparently are already severe supply issues (though who knows with so much disinformation flying around). Price controls in general only exacerbate shortages.

    But I wonder how true this is when a lot of the demand is investment demand. Kick the price of silver down ten bucks and what will happen? I suspect some will back up the truck; some will already be full in and simply watch and wait; and some will cash out and look for somewhere else to put their money. I'm sure I don't know what the predominant effect would be; if I had to guess I'd say the cashing out had the greatest immediate effect giving a real temporary reduction in demand and thus increasing supply, but that would be shortly overwhelmed because all the fiat and deficit forces are still in play.

    Of course, investment demand can also be curtailed by regulation and law, e.g., imposing severe limits on long positions while leaving short ones unregulated. This is what most concerns me long term with silver. True, it is a global market, but the U.S. has shown before that they're able to do a fair amount of international 'convincing'.

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  145. Wow, is that dollar a piece of shit or what?! I've long been aware that all fiat currencies ultimately end at their intrinsic value - zero. But to see Bucky rocketing to the downside versus other fiat trash is breathtaking.

    I've got the mother-in-law wanting to buy some silver today. She's wealthy. She wants $1000 worth of Morgan dollars. Better than nothing, I guess, but I don't think it's going to offset her (likely) sizeable bond holdings. I'm going to print some long-term charts of the dollar, Dow and precious metals, and try to show her the truth.

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  146. I apologize for allowing myself to be sucked into a response to the troll vamoose. It was his attack on Turd that got me angry and I responded without thinking. I know better and will not feed trolls in the future. Have a great day all.

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  147. She wants $1000 worth of Morgan dollars.

    -------------

    Add another zero to that sum and maybe she will make a dent ( Wink )

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  148. Anyone know what is going on in the Peruvian Elections? Here is my take:

    At 86% of ballots counted in Peru's elections, Keiko Fujimori has established a comfortable lead over Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. The tally according to the National Elections Office is:

    1. Ollanta Humala 31.4%
    2. Fujimori 23.2%
    3. Kuczynski 19.2%
    4. Alejandro Toledo 15.3%

    http://www.livinginperu.com/news-14628-2011-elections-update-peru-election-results-86-pct-keiko-4-pct-over-ppk

    -
    From a conversation I just had with my brother, he mentions a run-off on June 5th because somebody needs 50% to win. Does this mean that the race is for 2nd place, to be in the run-off vs Hamala? If this was the case would it be reasonable to expect that Hamala would not do so well in a one on one runoff vs a "normal" politician because of his militaristic viewpoints?

    I would imagine that the Kuczynski and Alejandro Toledo camps would support Fujimori more in a "politician" vs "military leader." Kind of like when Hillary Clinton supporters flocked to Barrack Obama after swearing off on him. However, I have no background on this situation and was wondering if anyone has any input on this.

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  149. Just a couple of notes on blogs vs. a full up website that will be capable of hosting multiple forums for different subject matters simultaneously:

    1) First, I would be against "banning" a Vamoose. Want him to clean up his language? Sure, but that's a different issue.
    2) He has kernels of truth for both the Saudi/MENA issue (I'll call it "the Caliphate", you guys can use western marketing terms) and the issue of what he called "group think" on this board. During a day like yesterday, there is no question that fully 2/3rds of the comments were "huddling together in group fear" nature with a smattering of nuggets... THAT'S OK...but call it what it is, don't deny it. After all, it is part of the beauty of the internet... the internet can bring together otherwise geographically scattered minority groups into a single forum that helps share information and sometimes "huddle in fear" while looking for collective strength to get through difficult periods, but again, don't try to pretend that it is not that.
    3) Howeve, because this group is currently stuck on a single blog, EVERY COMMENT is forced under a single thread regardless of subject matter. One of Turd's greatest challenges on the new site is going to be in determining "how to segment this snake" into about 5 digestible forums of different subject matters (e.g., 1 for "questions about futures/options trading," 1 for "stock/etf recommendations," 1 for "political forum/world events", 1 for "prepping for when THTF"... whatever... it won't be easy). But one thing is sure, there needs to be a running real time chat or posting forum for the day to day, minute to minute "huddling for strength" that goes on daily... call it the "support group" forum or whatever...

    ... but don't "ban" people like Vamoose. I was waiting to see someone cut through the noise and attack his core argument (as opposed to the form of what he said) and it didn't really happen until this morning. I thought the interesting replies were the ones that were honestly asking him to explain/expound on his thoughts.

    To an extent, he is exacly right... on any day they choose, TPTB, through a "policy shift" can wipe at least $1 TRILLION out of an asset class if they so choose in order to "get rid" of a lot of the paper fiat/added zeroes that they've pumped out over the last few years and they have effectively "contstricted" the money supply. Look at QE3... if they decide "no QE3," what will happen to the market? We get a what, maybe 25-40% "correction" in the stock market almost immediately and POOF!!! $1TRILLION gone overnight... then start QE and repeat. You don't think they can whack silver (or commodities in general) down SHORT term if they want and wipe at least half the people on this page out overnight? That's his point. If you don't believe that, you are fooling yourselves.

    Tell me where he is WRONG (and I'm not saying he is right on everything he said), not that he should be banned because you don't like what he says (although he could clean up how he says it).

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  150. PS And I do agree with some of you and I've said it before... usually when people brag about what they have, they don't really have. But even that doesn't change what he said about KSA/food prices and TPTB's ability to take down an asset class overnight (albeit it a temporar takedown, it's still a takedown). He may even be right about the price of silver... hell, for weeks here people were agreeing with the chart that showed the price of silver and gold absolutely collapsing at some point (due to paper metal collapse) then re-establishing its "true" physical, astronomical price. VAMOOSE SAID THE SAME THING!!! ... gave a collapse price and said it would be TEMPORARY before it took off. How did people miss that when it is in complete keeping with what everyone was saying on this board 2 months ago!?!?!?!?

    Get a grip... we're dealing with volatile metals/commodities in a volatile world, and I for one, would rather we continue to have "volatile" commenters with differing opinions/ideas... but yes Vamoose, no need to go potty mouth on everyone, it hurts the meaningful things you had to say.

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  151. Scott

    I have no background on it either, but my read is the same as yours. In the June 5 runoff, I expect Fujimori to consolidate the anti Humala vote, and prevail. Just a raw, blatant guess. My only real horse in this race is that I do own Fortuna Silver.

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  152. PPS There are two things that control the world right now and one of them is changing massively which is impacting the other:

    1) Debt. It is the United States greatest export, but other people are starting to control it... it is why the Fed has been trying to gobble it back up. HE WHO CONTROLS THE DEBT CONTROLS EVERYTHING ELSE. Was a great, great and very enlightening scene in the movie "The International."

    2) Food supply (and, to a lesser extent, but it's going to get bigger as we go forward, fresh water supply).

    #1 is crumbling around the world and it is impacting the price and availability of #2 (among oter factors).

    Look at debt and look at food supply and you see a lot of things regarding CONTROL.

    I would say oil too, but oil is really wrapped up in debt/the dollar rather than being as independent as the othe two.

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  153. AGQ CEF MY NICK

    I woke bleary eyed to stumble to my computer this morning (I don't like placing stock orders on my phone - less macro view) and bought 450 shares of AGQ which I won't be able to sell until settlement date which is a bit scary. No conditional sales, nothing - bareback. But they've been tantalizing so far and if Blythe doesn't get PMS until next Tuesday I guess I'll do well.

    I put a limit order at $37.50 to buy 300 shares of TBT but don't know if it will catch or not. GRC.

    My core and largest holding is CEF, well over half my IRAs. My screen for their NAV is stuck on 12 April and shows a ZERO NAV which is, people, a fire sale if you believe in gold and silver and have powder to expend. I'd by more but I'm fascinated with playing with AGQ.

    I have this nick, Curmudgeonly Dissembler because ages ago it got associated with my gmail account and my husband says to get rid of it because it sucks. So in preperation for Turd's new page I'll choose a new one somehow; blogspot is just so damn limiting. I think I'll switch to Huxley Ann - my nick on Zero Hedge - so might opt of consistanacy (if not gender accuracy.)

    Hope you all have profitable days.

    I"ll go check and in the time it's taken to type this brief update I hope my green has grown and not regressed to red.

    Xyt: I'm not saying good thing about the CEF NAV (which I cant get a current one of anyway) or changing my nick AGAIN because I hate PSIL. I don't hate PSIL or Sprott. I love both.

    Bestest,

    Brad

    PS The sterling necklace is supposedly moving slowly along. First the bracelete. If it's pretty and I'm not too lazy, I'll post pictures on flicker or something

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  154. eToro is the ultimate forex trading platform for rookie and pro traders.

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