Monday, May 23, 2011

Beware WOPR

You know, sometimes the charts can only take your so far. You shut down on Friday and all of the charts look great. Go back and look at my post from Friday afternoon. I was really excited to get back to work on Monday. Then, here comes the old PIIG boogeyman out of the closet and down goes everything. If you know what you're looking for, there are definitely times when the charts can predict the future. Unfortunately, in an era when computer algorithms can be tripped and swayed by simply managing the headlines, you've got to learn to take your lumps and be patient. Today is such a day.

I guess if there's a fundamental "rationale" for today's trade it's this: The global currency structure is going to be dramatically changing. The economic disruption caused by this will be significant. Therefore, sell commodities such as copper and crude but buy gold as a "safe haven" asset. Sounds nice, doesn't it. Sounds perfectly rational. Too bad that's not what's going on. Instead, mindless computers which have been programmed to "buy X and sell Y" at the push of a button are in charge and moving markets. As an example, last evening the grains were all UP about 10 cents on supply and weather concerns...real fundamentals. But that doesn't matter to WOPR. Nope. WOPR see rising dollar. WOPR sell everything.

For today, let's see if humans intervene and begin buying back what the computers sold. IF there is genuine (non-artificial) intelligence in the trade today, established support levels will hold once again and the commodities should turn. Crude looks very firm at 96. DrC should be well-bid between 393-395 and silver should not trade below 34.

Eventually, perhaps even in the not too distant future, today's euro is going to be replaced with a new "Nordic" euro. Then the East Asian nations will all combine to sponsor their own, regional trading currency and the dollar will be left for dead. WHEN this happens, gold and silver will be much, much higher in price than they are today. That doesn't matter much to WOPR, though. WOPR only knows today and, today, WOPR is selling.

More after the close. TF


  1. Is this the WOPR to chich you refer?
    AKA SkyNet?

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. aren't computers programmed by man..

  4. I was wondering what was going on. Thanks for the succinct explanation. I'm hanging tight with the SLV and GLD calls I bought last week.

  5. timpa: Don't be a smartypants.
    Man programs them to think for him.
    Man needs to now take advantage of opportunity created by computer.

  6. Ok, clue me in WOPR? Turd, you ever do a yellow hat giveaway for figuring out your acronyms?

  7. Hoping to BTFD on some mining stocks today but they are holding for now. I feel really bad for the people of Joplin, MO today.

  8. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  9. Turd, I still say gold being down such a small % in the buck, and up big % wise in other fiats, is very positive.

  10. Dan -- GFY.

  11. I assume WOPR is the computer from the movie War Games. WOPR is was a dick in that movie.

  12. Ginger
    Paul W. sounds like he knows what he is talking about.

    I'm thinking a whole teaspoon sounds pretty heavy. I'm guessing something in the few drops to quarter/half teaspoon would be adequate. I'm going to go back and re-read some homebrewing stuff regarding sterilization of equipment for some guidance.

    I'm sure a lot depends on the water you are starting out with.

  13. Yowza, nice movement in silver but still seems a bit fast.

    Would be nice to see some consolidation with another few legs up.

  14. @Turd: "Therefore, sell commodities such as copper and crude but buy gold as a "safe haven" asset."

    Turd, why didn't you mention my Silver as a safe haven?

  15. Gold/Silver/GDX/CEF looking outstanding in this BS!!!Perfectly showing where the smart folks want to be when the SHTF, IMO. jd. GLTA.

  16. WOPR (pronounced "Whopper") is a fictional military computer featured in the movie WarGames and its sequel. It is an acronym for War Operation Plan Response. Director John Badham invented the name "WOPR" when he thought the NORAD SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) was "boring, and told you nothing".[1] "WOPR" according to the director plays off of the Whopper hamburger and a fuzzy image of something going whop.[1]

  17. 2.935%
    VALUE: 17.058
    Greece 10 Year (GGGB10YR:IND)

  18. Turd: didn't mean to be a smart ass...just a question out of harm, no foul

  19. I snipped this from my May newsletter I get from a source I'd rather not reveal, but I feel is accurate......
    "While some economically sensitive commodities have declined in recent weeks (oil declined 17% over 4 trading days in early May), gold has so far declined just over 5% from its recent high in April at $1575. The out performance of gold versus other, more economically sensitive commodities is typical during an economic downturn. If we continue to see gold outperform silver and oil while maintaining the bulk of the
    gains made over the past two years, it’s likely the recent high in silver will be recorded as a significant intermediate-term peak within its larger bull market (not unlike gold’s top at $730 in 2006). In fact, this is our expectation."

  20. Eric.. ..Yeah.. I agree.. I need to do more research too. ..Been meaning to actually.. but you know ..never enough time.

    The milk jug thing has me concerned but I'm thinking that if that's all you've got's possibly better than no water! "/

  21. timpa: Just giving you some grief, too. Don't sweat it.

  22. Huh, really nice bounce for both gold and silver, without the dollar tanking...and while the Dow is cliff diving. Promising thus far.

  23. Pat, no doubt! Very positive, indeed.

  24. Turd,

    Nice write up in Jim Willie's weekend issue regarding your forecasting........

  25. I love that movie WarGames. Cheesy re-looking at it now though.

  26. @ TF

    Still hopeful that the silver will reach $37-38 later this week or did that end up being pushed off a few days due to todays drops?

  27. Ginger and Eric, yeah maybe a tsp is too heavy. I didn't do a lot of research on it, my girlfriend said that's what her family did, so that's what we have been doing. but then we also just realized we were over starching our chickens by feeding the young ones cracked corn instead of growing feed, so we are constantly learning!

  28. 1 min chart shows Silver is good for another run up. 5 min looks a bit rich but the 30 min chart looks like we still have room to go.

  29. Water Storage

    Here's a couple of sites that sound like they know what they are doing.,11666,7534-1-4065-1,00.html

    One says 1/8 tsp per gallon. The other says 1 tsp per 10 gallons. About the same. But a lot of other good info in the articles.

  30. Cheeburger Cheeburger Cheeburger...GULP !!!

    Greek 10-year yield=16.632%

    No Coke OR Pepsi...

  31. Nigel: Can you send it to me? I doubt Jim would mind.

    Thias: No. I still expect silver to be higher this week. Break 36.50 this week. Make first assault on 39.50 next week.

  32. Here is a question not regarding metals...I never participated in a blogger discussion before Turd's, and I was frustrated that I had to go open an account to post I joined livejournal. Sometimes it works sometimes it says my credentials can't be verified. Other times like today I actually have to post from my fiancees Mac because when I click "post comment" the page refreshes, my message is erased and it isn't posted. WTF! What system do you all use?

    Will the new website have this same chatroom platform?

  33. RVM popped this morning. Got greedy and missed it though.

    TRE is popping again today, testing the 7.30 level which is proving tough resistance. If TRE can break through here, it's gonna find some love.

    Miners are puking up some of their gains right now. Strange action. Don't really know how to play. Very little silver exposure for me right now. I'm with King Gold.

  34. A teaspoon in a gallon is way too much, especially if you have a Berkey or a similar water filter. You just need a few drops. Use a sharpie or a label on the jugs to mark the date you filled them and refresh them after half a year.

    Here's one source, I'm sure there are many more. <a href="></a>

  35. The homebrewing sites talked about sterilization of bottles, etc. Not storage. They talk in terms of a tablespoon or two per gallon to clean bottles, then rinse well of course.

  36. Getting whacked by WTI and Silver today; last night I looked smart and handsome...see how it plays.

    Looking forward to the planting progress report today; heard Pa, Del. & Md still pretty nasty and soybeans will be the default planting.

    John Deere hats off to Art and Turd for the commentary.


  37. Corn report: "Golf Ball-Size Hail Possible Tonight"

    Southwest OH and Southeast-- "The chance for quarter- to golf ball-size hail is in the forecast for later tonight, May 23."

    If the farmers didn't get their corn in by Sunday, they're screwed. If they did get it in, they just might be screwed as well.

  38. TF I hope you're right about next week, 6/3 is my birthday.... :)

  39. @agophillic,

    A Google id is probably the most reliable since Google owns Blogger/Blogspot. However, everybody occasionally experiences the disappearing post problem. You have to either compose in something else (TextEdit on the Mac, for instance) or select and copy your response before you hit the send button. It's a free service and making it 100% reliable would probably quadruple their costs, so... hedge accordingly.

    @Eric #1,

    One of the many awesome things about homebrew is that no pathogens will grow in it. However that doesn't mean you can't make a truly disgusting beer if you allow some harmless wild yeast in. As you say, most of homebrew sterilization involves the bottle and the fermenting vessel. Some of the chemicals used can be quite nasty (Iodophor in particular) so I advise avoiding homebrew sterilization techniques to treat drinking water.

  40. Nigel Farage... [are you the actual famous UK politician ... or is this just a psuedonym??]

    Do you have a link to Jim W's weekend piece?

    I was thinking it refers also to his comments last year on the Nordic currency:

  41. @Agophilliac

    The computer you have trouble with is ...? XP,Vista, Win7 ???
    Try Firefox or Opera or Safari browser maybe... New version of IE is making me crazy too. (posting from my Mac now but I know what you mean)

  42. turd... bought a $40 July call this morning before reading your blog. however I'm very impressed with silver and gold thus far.

  43. Nigel
    re: "...Do you have a link to Jim W's weekend piece?.."
    I see it's a private thing.
    Perhaps you could give a little summary?? :) [please] Ta

  44. Bought a few UGL calls when gold was at 1491. I have been watching very closely and gold just won't give up the fight. This morning when the $ took that vicious jump over 76 it refused to even get close to 1500. The dollar upswings are retarding it slightly but it jumps aggressively on downswings. Things are a little wild but if gold holds the downdrafts on days like today then I think monitization stabilizing the marketlater in the week still brings us a good upswing.

    Also the swings in the dollar are starting to look so violent I am not sure it matters what the index price point is as much as the volatility is probably beating the crap out of fat boys running to it for safety.

    Whole thing is a little sketchy but I am keeping those calls at least until friday (I hope) I am not sure gold can beat an entire market going down like this, if it can... well, that sort of strength would be noteworthy.

  45. @John,

    No, I lay no claim to being a politician. The Golden Jackass is a subscription-only, but very well connected publication.

  46. Xaritas

    Agreed. Those links I posted are dedicated water storage links, not homebrew stuff.

  47. @Xaritas
    I copy the message EVERY time...I never know if the word verification box will show up.

    @Tesla I have a sony viao laptop running XP and firefox with what I assume is the most up to date version. I haven't tried using my explorer yet...I can't stand it.

    Thank god her mac laptop is on the same table as my laptop...all I have to do is roll my chair over one space...still a pain in the ass though.

  48. I think in order to reach 36.50 we're gonna need more than just an absence of sellers. So it could be a bit more labored reaching that target. Much of this is also dependent on how impulsive to the upside Gold can get.

    Crossing that line however could see further bullishness spurt as shorts would need to cover again.

  49. I've had a Berkey for almost a year...actually have the PF2 filters on it for fluoride and water ever.

  50. Spent some accumulated fiat monopoly money on some silver Buffaloes this morning. Figured we might not see $34.40 again for awhile if ever again. Thanks to Turd I had been lying in wait for this opportunity. Why are folks so gloomy? If you are into physical silver, isn't this a good time to BTFD? We all know the fundamentals have not changed. We've got to take advantage of this manipulation while we can, don't you think? Thanks, again.

  51. Strong words about the state of affairs of the ol' US of A. Even worse than Europe.

    (by the way, does anyone know why I can copy/paste a link? I'm having to manually type them...grr) Thx!

    (formerly: IHAL,Gina)

  52. @agophilliac

    Heard that man - Macs really kick butt.
    I hate my micro-snot boxes other than their low cost!
    Don't use em for anything except displaying price charts and testing coding and script compatibility when developing (PHP, ,Javascript etc..)

    I think of them like disposables bcuz they are so cheap.

  53. Mr. Turd
    Where can we find a good level to re-entry with gold?

  54. @agophillic,

    Okay. I just don't think there is a magic combination of browser/operating system/authentication source that is going to make the problem go away. The problem is that Blogger sucks.

  55. I'm still thinking we could see a spike down today to the $34 range, all it takes is some Algo to go ape and in 30 seconds silver can drop from $35 to $34 and then climb back up to $35 about 5 minutes later.

  56. agophillic said...
    >I've had a Berkey for almost a year.....

    What model Berkey do you have Agophillic?

    oldtime in NC

  57. Anyone have issues with their Macs dropping posts?

  58. @Tesla - nope running Safari and all good.. have to remember to do the verification word..

  59. Hi Turd, nice turn in gold since the open, perhaps people are back-filling what Skynet sold off. Ag all over the place, whatevs...

    Doing my part, I bought two 2 coin 5oz ATB sets from APMEX. Gettysburg and Glacier. I'll send one set to PCGS or NGC for grading/slabbing and save them to sell on ebay in the Fall.


    A couple of people were looking for more info or links to some of the Greenfood/Superfood products I mentioned last week. Enerfood and the others contain tons of chlorella and spirulina. One way or another, these are a key to our health, PLEASE be sure you begin to incorporate them into your diet each day. There's a ton of truly health enhancing and energy producing nutrition listed here, consider copy and pasting it you find the information and links of interest.

    Real Nutrition is the perfect compliment to Real Money! Here's some of my favorites at the best prices I've found them for:


    -Green Vibrance:

    -Green Max powder:

    -Fruitein Rainbow Shake:

    -Maqui Powder (BIGTIME antioxidant; huge ORAC #)

    -Goji juice (another great antioxidant)

    -Wolfberry (aka Goji berry) Standardized Extract

    -Goji Wolfberry Supreme w/Quicksorb

    -Yaeyama Chlorella

    -Hawaiian Spirulina Pacifica


    I saw that Chin and Eric #1 mentioned Green Magma. Swanson has it for a great price:

    Buona Salute (good health in Italiano)

  60. @LaMachinna
    (by the way, does anyone know why I can copy/paste a link? I'm having to manually type them...grr) Thx!

    standard windows hotkey shortcuts tend to work when right clicking does not

    cntl C = copy
    cntl X = cut
    cntl v = paste

  61. Thanks for the linkage, ewc... :) Any favs you'd recommend to a green smoothie virgin?

  62. Just through my Dow Jones newswires. An interesting note:

    9:53 (Dow Jones) "The current USD rally is happening at a time when the US economy is weakening," HSBC currency analysts point out. This may seems counterintuitive but it speaks to a quickly developing dollar-rise paradigm, one tied to global growth slowdown fears.

    US economy still matters to global growth projections, and will be watched intently. To that end, "a weak US economy is not necessarily USD negative at all," says HSBC. "The FX market to some extent has been turned upside down and the concepts we used to assess the USD, and other currencies, have had to be put on the shelf."

  63. @Oldtimegal
    I have the Berkey light...didn't want to splurge for the big heavy stainless wanted to be able to take in case of a bug out situation. The only pain is filling it with a 5 gallon bucket a few times a day...I will gladly do it to drink pure water though.


    I think that one really good superfood will take care of all those supplements. I suggest Dr. Schulze's Super Food..its wild harvested and organic with no crappy fillers.

  64. Liking metals here a lot. Hold strong.

    Do these Shorts make my ass look big? :)

  65. ewc58

    What do you think of this stuff? It's been around for a long time. I've gone through a few cans of it, but none lately.

  66. A word of halfwit wisdom to all the
    foodies on the site. I assume that
    general bankfail equals bankcard plus
    bankcash = no more use in foodshop hence
    no foodshop. Ok, perhaps. Equally
    however, pistacio and curdled raspberry
    juice smoothie not much cop vs bubonic
    plague or typhoid. Bad plan, according
    to halfwit. Think 30-40' non sinking sail
    boat, small outboard only. Oz or Africa
    maybe. Learn navigation not cookery. Park
    boat very near coast to get away b4 any
    gov gunboats turn up. Who knows how it'll
    be ?

  67. Isn't it amazing how in less than 3 weeks ( give or take ) we have gone from
    " the recovery is near " too the world is going to crash. Amazing, wonder where all that cash is sitting?

  68. Hope all turdites and family are safe near Joplin, Missouri after last evenings tornadoes. Word trickling in is 3/4 city is gone and reservists that worked Katrina say devastation is equal to if not worse than Katrina's. geez....thinking of them today. Am thinking that Missouri has a bullseye on 'em :(

  69. Silver just needs to consoildate for a while longer. 10 min chart still showing a bit rich.

    Looking for a bounce at around 34.80.

  70. Oldtimegal,
    This is the one that I have:

    Where are you in NC? ...I am near Raleigh.

    Eric & All,
    Thanks for the links!

  71. LaMachinna,
    I agree with you. Prayers going out for all in Joplin and nearby.

    More rough weather on the way later today for parts of the country. :[

  72. Turd, here's Jim Willie's headline to his piece on you, will email the rest of the text to you directly: 'TURD FERGUSON LAYS OUT A FORECAST FOR THE SILVER PRICE TO RETURN TO $42/OZ BY THE END OF JUNE. THE KEY IS NOTICES FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX, WHICH USUALLY RELEASE THE PRICE TO MOVE UPWARD'

  73. For all who asked:

    On October 28, 2010, a sophisticated, experienced law firm filed a class action lawsuit against JP Morgan Chase & Co., and all of its related entities, as well as HSBC Holdings PLC and its related entities. The class action complaint alleges that these defendants unlawfully manipulated the price of the COMEX silver futures and options contracts from at least March 1, 2008 to the present, in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act (7 U.S.C. section 1, et seq.), and section 1 of the Sherman Antitrust Act (15 U.S.C. section 1). Forty additional actions were filed against the same defendants alleging the same facts and violations of law.

    In February 2011, the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation ordered that all similar actions be consolidated for all pretrial proceedings.

    That case number is 1:11-md-02213-RPP. If anyone wants to look this case up, please just google PACER, and sign in. Run a Query, insert that case number, and pull up the Docket sheet. Any document filed is available for $0.08 per page.

    The next post is a detailed summary.

  74. More severe storms headed toward Joplin NOW. I've been following Dutchsinse on YouTube for details...

    Keep stackin' and keep 'em below ground. Or in the case of Halfwit - below decks. ;-)

    Ol' Michael

  75. Part two:

    The lead Plaintiff is Paul Kaplan, who is an experienced silver trader. Since before March 2009, Mr. Kaplan, has investigated whether a small number of market participants with large short COMEX silver futures positions depressed, and were continuing to unlawfully depress, COMEX silver futures prices.

    Mr. Kaplan's investigation included analyzing voluminous market and trading data of COMEX silver futures contracts as well as bid/ask data, and providing information to the CFTC regarding suspicious trading in silver futures contracts which appeared to be de-linked from legitimate market fundamentals.

    In January 2010, Mr. Kaplan was interviewed in person by high-ranking CFTC Division of Enforcement personnel at the CFTC's offices in Manhattan. Following his interview, and throughout 2010, Mr. Kaplan has continued to have direct communications with high-ranking CFTC Enforcement personnel, including CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, regarding the claims alleged.

    The plaintiffs' law firm, Lowey Dannenberg, has also built upon the intensive investigation undertaken over the last two years by its client Paul D. Kaplan, and has:

    (a) obtained and reviewed the definitive COMEX silver futures trading data set, including
    "bid and ask" market depth and intra-day time and sales data;

    (b) consulted with a former NYMEX Director with extensive NYMEX futures trading experience concerning the review and analysis of silver trading data;

    (c) analyzed the price patterns of the COMEX silver futures contracts prices, and related contracts and commodities, in light ofthe Defendants' conduct, and their structure and financial motives;

    (d) interviewed COMEX silver futures traders with hundreds of millions of dollars in silver futures transactions during the proposed class period;

    (e) interviewed COMEX floor traders and members familiar with the COMEX market activity in the silver futures contracts during the proposed class period;

    (f) interviewed market analysts and other COMEX metals market participants.

    Part three follows.

  76. SHALL...WE...PLAY...A...GAME? WOPR reference shows some age dude. Nice calls Turd. You the man!

  77. Turd, I am new to your blog. What is your take on gold vs. silver. If we have deflation, gold will do better than silver? I am talking about physical metals.

  78. THis is getting ugly. GDXJ down 3%. GDX down 1.35%.

    Watch out below . . .

  79. re: Trader Dan's comments on last COT

    Overall the last COT is very silver positive, but more in the long run. I would expect the next COT to be even more positive as today and early tomorrow will show more short covering occurred.

    The bad news is that recent price action (like this morning and last Tuesday afternoon) with these strange extended grinds up without corresponding waterfalls are clearly against the trend and show the big shorts covering against the (smaller) hedgie selling. It means that our upside in the near term will be very slow...driven primarily by real buyers vs. large short covering. As I'm a day trader, this doesn't affect me much, I just play each side there and hold my core, but it is something for options players to consider on far OTM calls.

  80. @Mr. Hyde.

    Minera Frisco has an ~100MM toz hedge book with expiries between now and 2013.

    Carlos Slim

  81. My prognostication for silver over the next hour:

    Silver has an appointment with 34.60 and it will be meeting it within 30-60 minutes.

  82. Part three:

    For those of you who need a bit of background.

    A class action lawsuit is one where a representative sues on behalf of other persons similarly situated. The purported "class representative" files the lawsuit. The class representative then must prove to the court that he or she is a proper class representative, and that the lawsuit is properly filed as a class action.

    There comes a time down the road when the court "certifies" the lawsuit as a class action.

    The real battle is over certifying the class. Once it is likely that the class will be certified, the defendants usually settle. The plaintiffs' lawyers make a ton of money, and the members of the class get some small change for their status as being members of the class.

    There are tons of rules about this. I cannot possibly begin to explain all of it or give out advice, nor will I. If anyone feels inclined, please do get a lawyer and join up with the class. I have provided below, the names and contact information for the lawyers actually involved in the case.

    The Court appointed the firm Lovell Stewart Halebian Jacobson LLP, by Christopher
    Lovell, as Interim Plaintiffs' Lead CounseL
    Lovell Stewart Halebian Jacobson LLP
    Christopher Lovell
    61 Broadway, Suite 501
    New York, New York 10006
    Tele: (212) 608-1900

    The Court appointed the following to the Interim Plaintiffs Steering Committee.
    Labaton Sucharow, LLP
    Bernard Persky
    140 Broadway
    New York, NY 10005
    Tele: (212) 907-0868

    Lowey Dannenberg Cohen & Hart, P.c.
    Vincent Briganti
    White Plains Plaza
    One North Broadway
    Suite 509
    White Plains, NY 10601
    Tele: (914) 997-0500

    Hausfeld LLP
    William P. Butterfield
    1700 K. St. NW, Suite 650
    Washington, DC 20006
    Tele: (202) 540-7200

    Cohen Milstein Sellers & Ton PLLC
    J. Douglas Richards
    88 Pine Street
    14th Floor
    New York, NY 10005
    Tele: (212) 838-7797

    I hope that all goes well, and that the manipulation is stopped. If anyone suffered losses, my only suggestion is to get involved, perhaps by contacting one of the plaintiff's lawyers, or for sure by getting legal advice from a lawyer of your choice.

    I do not have any expertise on class actions, nor do I want to get involved as a lawyer on this case. My only role here is to point out the lawsuit, and let you all make your own decisions.

    Best of luck to all.

  83. I see people have added comments and links for clean water.

    If you query Jim Humble and MMS, you will get all sorts of information on how Jim used sodium dioxide to cure malaria as well as other diseases such as cancer. I can't confirm any of that, but I have taken it without any adverse effects, and coughing from smoking, is virtually eliminated.

    Sodium dioxide is used by the water industry to clean water.

    Here is a link, but many others as well:

    By the way, silver bugs, you can also use your silver stash. Buy physical.

    Here is the link, but I am sure many more as well:

    Stay well,


  84. Last two weeks have had down days Fri-early Tuesday. I think we're in the same pattern right now, so I'd expect more down today and some early a.m., then short covering buys for COT into COMEX close tomorrow. Then general up trend for rest of week (except Friday?) At least that's been the pattern...

  85. Krauser, Thanks for the update.
    I guess the equity market is puling PMs down.

  86. For those who don't know who the guy is:

    Nigel Farage: Trapped inside an economic prison

  87. Turd (or others),

    I thinking 45 is a good entry point for ABX. Do you( or others) agree?

  88. @uptofreedom: you are most welcome. Depending on your budget, GreenMax on the low end of Enerfood or Green Vibrance on the high end.

    @Eric#1: I have can of it but I don't love it and would't buy it again. Don't like the taste. It is however an excellent product. I want to try this one next instead:

    Or this one:

    The entire Nature Plus Source of Life product line is outstanding. I have my wife take SOL Ultra Whole Life Energy Enhancer:

    My daughter Molly (16) takes SOL Power Teen:

  89. thanks or the update California. how long before
    a judgement ?

  90. Everyone, be very careful, even though I think we go higher into June ($36-$39), we could see mid to high $33 silver today or the next....silver is being slowly walked down to $34 and we could see a short term waterfall event that takes it lower.

  91. Do you remember the scene where WOPR is launching? That got made into a very interesting free game recently called DEFCON. If you want to get a grip on how nuclear war is fought this game will square you away. Every time I strap a friend up to this game they come away entertained and shocked. Which I am well pleased with, so hard to get past peoples blocks these days.

  92. @UK turdwatcher:

    Class actions are very complex. There is a giant battle up front to certify the class.

    Based on the stakes, perhaps 10 figures, I do expect there will be months and months before we hear anything about the class certification motion. In all likelihood, once the class certification motion is granted, if at all, then there will be settlement talks, and perhaps a resolution. All I can tell you is to go to the website yourself. It is a free website. Pacer. Just google it, go to the Southern District of NY, and type in the case number. Pull up the docket sheet, and read the entries. There is always some future hearing, and you can see and track the progress of the lawsuit.

    My basic gut instinct is that the case will probably resolve in 2012.

    Just my $0.02.

  93. ewc58

    Yes, taste is an issue.

    I prefer to mix most shakes just with water, but with this one i find that a little milk, maybe up to half milk half water makes it taste tolerable.

  94. Well, if Silver does keep rallying, the 5 and 10 minute charts show that there is room to brek the 35.20 and head for 35.40.

    If it keeps rallying of course.

    I don't see sub 34 today. Massive bot attack or the like might get us sub 34.5 but so far we are making higher lows and hopefully soon, higher highs.

    I think I have run out of fingers to cross.

  95. I haven't ruled out one more plunge down into the 29-32 range. IF we get there, I plan to hit my coin shop for a bunch of 90%. IF NOT, I'm OK with that for sure.

    A lot of things I look at tend to agree with TF that the period now through late June could be pretty damn good, but macro events can blow everything out of the water.

    Be careful out there. Never overcommit.

  96. @Cali
    Thanks for the effort.

    Since our founding fathers set the USA up with divided government we should have a fair independent look at this issue right?

    Please forgive my skeptisism. From your view of the inside of the legal system, is there any chance that this case has legs?

  97. @Ginger, Eric #1
    Unless you like the taste of chlorine and possible negaitive long-term effects, filter your water, then store with this stuff in it:
    Aerobic Stabilized Oxygen: This non-toxic formulation prevents development of microbial growth in stored water up to 5 years without rotation. E.D. Goodloe's is the original! Each two-ounce dropper bottle treats 70 gallons of tap water. Effective against Salmonella, Cholera, E. Coli, Streptococcus, Pseudamonas, Staphylococcus, various parasites and microorganisms including Giardia Lamblia. When stored out of sunlight or fluorescent light, shelf life of aerobic stabilized oxygen in its original container, is indefinite. (Note: Some websites claim two ounces of Goodloe's Stabilized Oxygen will treat 110 gallons of water. That is incorrect, and our information comes directly from the manufacturer.)

    Also, when using the water pour it back and forth between two buckets to get more air in it and avoid the flat taste it may have.

  98. California - thanks for your $0.02c
    I will follow this as you suggest but suspect
    by then the silver game will have moved on and
    its effect on markets been managed by TPTB

  99. Europe is imploding (about a dozen times so far this year isn't it), dollar spikes, stocks tanking... oh, and Tim has billions in bonds to sell this week... hmmmmmm (just another week in the "free" market based

    Convenient isn't it (btw... watch the DOW creep up after the auctions each day... the corruption knows no bounds).

  100. PTB getting ready to turn the equity markets right here at S&P 1,313 - let's see what gold/silver do when they kick in a week of major POMO! jd.

  101. Eric, btw, it looks like vitacost has even lower prices than Swanson for many items. Thanks for a great additional low cost option.

    All, here's that supplier:

    fyi, free shipping on orders over $50 thru 5/31

    For Navitas Naturals products, vitaGlo has a much bigger selection, also at excellent prices:

  102. Keep getting your silver and gold, we are going to need it.

  103. @LevelHeaded:

    You said: "From your view of the inside of the legal system, is there any chance that this case has legs?"

    Let me not parse things. I am just a very small player in the legal system. I represent the little guys. I love what I do.

    The big class action cases are all about the atty fees for the big firms who do them, on both sides.

    The stakes are HUGE, and I mean HUGE with a capital H.

    General rule of lawsuits: the bigger the stakes, the bigger the attorneys' fees on both sides. Know that.

    Also, know the corollary: when the stakes are so huge, it is not in anyone's best interest to actually get to the end with an actual trial, where there is a winner and a loser. A settlement lets everyone win. Both side will claim victory. Meanwhile, the real winners are the attorneys, who bank MILLIONS AND MILLIONS in attorneys' fees.

    Again, look at this class action like a cost of doing business for JP Morgue. It is no different than payment for lobbying, in my opinion. JP Morgue needs political cover, so they buy a lobbyist, wine and dine, and voila!

    Look to the legal system in general, and this case in particular, for the demonstration of this simple point.

    JP Morgue and HSBC will settle. There will be a huge payment which is relative. Huge to me is $100 Million or so. $20-30 Million will go to the attorneys, and the rest will be paid out to the investors harmed by the silver price manipulation. Remember, some of the big hedge funds have a stake in the outcome, too. So, in the end, there will be nothing major that happens, except, that it will provide something to comment about later on when it is all over.

    Same shit, different day. Really.

    Sorry to break that news to you, but 20 years of doing this has allowed me to peel off the rose colored glasses.

    The best outcome we can hope for is that one of our elected officials actually thinks that the Comex manipulation is something that can get the politician elected. Then we may get some truth. Otherwise, keep stacking . . .

  104. Today's action doesn't suprise me, in my post yesterday I wrote that several of the indicators show that the buyers have not reentered the market and sellers have only declned to flat or a slight downward direction.

    The AROON and the ADX both show that this is true and until the buyers retrun this is what we will see.

    We are still several trading days away from a buy signal....

    With SLV the ADX today shows that both buyers and sellers are leaving the market, bullish.

    The Parabolic SAR is at $37.07 today and should move down tomorrow to about $36.30'ish, when the price action touches the SAR it generates a buy signal... The amount will decrease by about 75-80 cents a day.

    The MACD opended up a little but may crossover with in the few days.

    This type of price action is consistent with the indicators shown. As buyers return the action will go up.....duh, I know, every one here knows that but there may be one who doesn't

  105. Thank you Black Hawk!... checking it out..

  106. Eur/Usd is now rangebound in a very critical channel. A break over 1.405 suggests the Euro bleeding is temporarily over for now (yet news and other events could surely change the trends of the algorithms on a heartbeat), or a break below ~1.3986 (essentially 1.40 for all intensive purposes) shall show if the bleeding will continue.

    On other note, Euro Gold and Pound Gold (Britain!) are making all time highs:

    As far as a lot of the junior miners/miners, remember the Canadian Exchanges are closed today, leaving room for lighter than normal volume.

    Remember, options expiration for comex futures on Wed, and there has usually been pressure into this date, so I would assume that if we won't really start moving towards the end of the week... Where it is on Wednesday will tell a lot in my opinion.

  107. Err, I meant break below 1.397. Lower lows is all I was saying would indicate its not over.

  108. California Lawyer,

    Thanks for your great posts... I look forward to periodic updates on significant progress... I'm beginning to feel we may actually get some (muted of course) action to at least reduce the criminal activity in the metals... as the truth begins to creep into the mainstream.

    Thank you for your insite!

  109. I actually registered with the class action lawsuit back in Feb. The problem is, I could only claim losses on my SLV. Mining shares are not included and that's primarily where I got slammed in 2008.

  110. I lost that Max Pain site for options expiry. Last I read is for once it would be on the shorts for PM's anyways. That would make this Opt. ex. different.

    Does anyone have the link? Or can inform me where max pain falls for PM's

  111. @Scott88
    EUR might break out of this morass it looks like to me, 3rd time testing 1.404.

  112. From here, I would rather buy gold than silver. Silver not catching any of the flight to safety out of the EUR.

    I am staying out of silver until we restablish an uptrend or we trade down toward the bottom of the channel again.

    That is all I can add today, GTLA

    That is all I have to add

  113. @averagejoe said...
    I lost that Max Pain site for options expiry.

    The site is but he has stopped updating after Feb options expiry.

  114. I'm very impressed by gold hanging in today, and silver isn't too shabby either. Looks very positive to me.

    I'm still wary of buying silver myself, but I have sold off over half my USD position, bought back my SDS puts (at a tidy profit) and gone long TBT at 33.60, all 'bullish' bets on a rebound from here.

    As long as Greece doesn't collapse today the Euro/USD should hold, and we'll drift up over the next few days, IMO, and then it will be time to re evaluate. Don't think I will be long over the weekend, not a good position these days.

  115. @averagejoe --

    This may be the one you are looking for. But bear in mind, this applies to EQUITY options, not futures.

  116. I'm with Atlee on gold versus silver at present. One of these days I will be buying EXK and SLW again. Not now though.

    I am accumulating NGD, GG and have bids in for TRE. If only DZZ actually acted like a leveraged gold play. I do not understand how DZZ underperforms every day. Very odd, that.

  117. Thanks G and CD
    CD thats the one

  118. Gold and silver look like they have been abandoned.
    I think people are moving on to other markets and this play may be coming to a coma soon.

  119. The calm before the storm, Mr. Miyagi. ;)

  120. Gold and silver look like they have been abandoned.
    I think people are moving on to other markets and this play may be coming to a coma soon.


    Enlighten us old wise one as too what these other market plays are?

    Treasuries? ha ha ha good luck with that, I am shorting treasuries here.

  121. Lots of overhead resistance in Silver off the parabolic crash. This is natural. The older brother Gold is once again assuming the lead. Makes complete sense. To work off the overhead supply it will take some time and lots of speculators were wiped out of the Silver trade and have a bad mouthful of that trade. Nonetheless, should Gold start spiking up, Silver I would think will follow.

  122. anybody try this WATERBOB for emergency water storage?

  123. shill, I was thinking of shorting treasuries soon as well, especially 10 yr note. it appears it is overbought. what is your take on the end of QE though? if there is a delay, the primary purchaser of treasuries would be gone, but stocks would go down, so would investors be moving into treasuries for "safety"?

  124. Shill,
    The rest of the market, financials, techs, anything else with a pulse.

    Storms can go either way.

  125. California Lawyer, Pforth and others:
    You brought up an issue I've thought about periodically but wasn't sure whether or not it was worth the time to persue. I'm a Canadian - have accumulated SLV shares from time to time, long term holds are CEF and physical bullion and major trading positions are SLV options. I Have considered registering with the silver class action law suit but wasn't clear where to start, how much time commitment it would take and whether the chances of a payoff was worth it. Your thoughts? Thanks.

  126. MrMiyagi said...
    Gold and silver look like they have been abandoned.
    I think people are moving on to other markets and this play may be coming to a coma soon.

    Mr. Miyagi do you ever have anything other than that to add? You have been saying this every day for the past week.

    wrd ver doomer

  127. atlee,
    I haven't been on every day.

  128. new site can't come soon enough, eh atlee? ;)

  129. The rest of the market, financials, techs, anything else with a pulse.


    FINANCIALS?????? Are you a broker peddling your wares? That is the worst advice I have ever read in this blog. TECH??? Ok why? touch pads> ya that is going to save the markets alright.

    Comical and entertaining.

  130. @ up to freedom

    amen bro.


    Pls allow me to be the first to politely suggest to you that you wax off on over to a mkt that has a pulse and stop polluting this blog. Unless of course you have something of real value to add.

    Pls accept this in the spirit in which it is offered.

  131. Shill,
    Chill... I did not give advice.
    I'm just pointing out that compared to the daily climb of the past six months, the price of PMs has flatlined for a short while and the fickle public is bound to go to other trades seeing this play comatose.

    Why is it that only positive, going higher! style posts get attention here?

  132. Dave we may see a 2 handle, but eventually the bond market will rise. Right now Ben owns said market, but very soon, he will lose control and rates will rise, whether he likes it or not. And as far as safety..Are they really? Just another sliver of paper.

  133. > Dr O

    I had to go through and find all my buy sell history for SLV and send it to the lawyers. They had a due date of Feb 20th or so for submissions but this might have changed. CEF was not included (I have a lot of that too).

  134. Chill... I did not give advice.
    I'm just pointing out that compared to the daily climb of the past six months, the price of PMs has flatlined for a short while and the fickle public is bound to go to other trades seeing this play comatose.

    Why is it that only positive, going higher! style posts get attention here?


    The fickle public has already had its fill of that sector since 08. Chill you say, I am as calm as the driven snow, do not interpret my text as an attack, its not. But your call is flawed, and I am assuming you have positions to unwind.

  135. Thanks for your take Shill...I sometimes wonder if I think things out too much.

  136. Shill,
    I guess you haven't seen much driven snow but that's another topic...

    I don't have positions to unwind, I'm trying to justify the calls for higher prices. That might make me initiate positions.

  137. Man, crude has been my mistress for way to long. Once she reaches 101 again i'm breaking up. Good/bad idea?

  138. Shill,
    I guess you haven't seen much driven snow but that's another topic...

    I don't have positions to unwind, I'm trying to justify the calls for higher prices. That might make me initiate positions.


    Considering I live south of Boston Massachusetts, ya your right I have never seen driven snow..How utterly ridiculous.

  139. Off topic, but zerohedge just tweeted that Oprah now has less viewers than Judge Judy. Am I the only one who'd tickled pink by that?

    On topic, looks like silver's catching a bid... Go, silver! You can do eet!

    edit - word verification: "anealdc"... man, we could sure use some of that... :D

  140. "Considering I live south of Boston Massachusetts, ya your right I have never seen driven snow..How utterly ridiculous. "

    Dude, I live north of 60 degrees latitude. Anyway... no need to quibble about this!

  141. Hopefully we should get some more action upward on happy tuesday tomorrow.

  142. Love how Silver is now tracking the DOW.

  143. Can someone save me looking up the following info.

    Does SLW pay a dividend? If yes, how much?

  144. "Considering I live south of Boston Massachusetts, ya your right I have never seen driven snow..How utterly ridiculous. "

    Dude, I live north of 60 degrees latitude. Anyway... no need to quibble about this!


    Sound like a good idea, but serious MM financials? Even retail would have been a better offering. No one is lending or borrowing.

  145. have always been fan of Ron Pauls' gold standard...with that said I just watched the "secret of Oz" (thanks whoever suggested it here) and now I am wondering if I was never thought I would be rethinking that position! Anyone else take the time and watch it?? It was enlightening to say the I hate the bank cartel even more!!

  146. @shill - $28 billion in POMO this week. PM's bound to catch some of that...

  147. Lazy Lester,
    SLW pays 12 cents dividend.

    I'm not saying it's a good idea, merely implying that some other market would/may be sought.

  148. Cool, stepping out for a break.

  149. Nothing unexpected happening today. About what we expected if you look at Turd's roadmap. As he said, it'll be awhile till Ag heads higher for the June interval.

    In the meantime, go easy on yourself. Take your pick:

    Glass 1/2 empty: aw damn, Ag goin' nowhere for now


    Glass 1/2 full: yeah babay, accumulate Ag on weakness (like NOW :-)

    Rock on Turd Town. Keep stackin'

  150. ewc58

    Here is another one that is sometimes worth comparing prices on.

  151. Firedollarz
    I don't think that's who he is ... that's why I asked him - in case he was the owner of that brilliant speech in the European Supreme Soviet - I mean - Parliament building.

  152. Teeny-tiny gains. That's what I've been making of late. Barely even base hits. More like bunts. While we have no shortage of miners dropping to nice entry/accumulation levels, I'm not seeing any significant upswing. I'm increasing my buys and not seeing any real profits. Two hundred bucks here. Three hundred there. Eighty-five there. Anybody else out there finding slight gains on their trades of late?

    And if you're actually making some coin, what are you doing?

    Good luck.

  153. Pforth - Thanks - on a slow day maybe I'll put in a call to one of the lawyers California listed and see where it goes

  154. Re ABX

    Barrick is not a real mining company. It is a device to transfer wealth from investors to the wall street bankers. This is why they need ex-presidents on their board. Don't buy ABX.

  155. Terri - yes that secret of oz has opened my
    eyes to the history of banking - and yes I now
    see a flaw in the gold standard if the central bankers control the gold.

  156. what is a good Ag ETF?

    CORN? DBA?

    i see alot of talk about agriculture, from what i have gathered, seems like corn will be affected the most


    i am not seeing gains or losses, just daily noise in my portfolio right now. my equity hedges and gold are making money slowly, everything else is losing

  157. Anybody know what is going on with ARNGF and GPRXF today?

  158. Very encouraged by the fact that we held steady, are over 35 again, and that despite the USDinker's little rally.

  159. What I am seeing is a very choppy, difficult to trade consolidation. It is more indecision than lack of interest. We can see that by the sudden violent moves with no follow through.

    If someone has to be trading something then finding another vehicle with a little more trade-able action is not a bad thing.

    This is healthy consolidation but it is not much fun to trade. Small scalps are all you get.

  160. Mr. Turd:

    Do options for gold expire during this week ?
    How could this affect the price of silver and gold?

    Thanks in advance.

  161. the slow stochastic on silver is no longer oversold or imbedded and looks like our next move is to $38 area.

    I am going to buy a little.


    define good. Here is one I use. It is slow so it is not trading vehicle but you can buy size and it is good exposure across 20 ag commodities. It is not sexy though. RJA

  162. Green!!

    Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla Holla...

  163. Man this board has slowed down. It's about as exciting as the market today. Slow day. I just completed a flip of RVM for $200. Yawn. That's my only real trade. I did just buy some more NGD at 9.15. NGD just keeps re-testing the daily lows. It's going to run back to 9.40 in a hurry on the first sign of strength.

  164. lol atlee

    decent point; good is very generic. i've used that in the past too. that will prob work; it's been a while since i touched ag...of all the ag though, one i am watching most is corn, haven't traded with CORN ETF though

  165. @ atlee
    which time frame? daily?
    otherwise i can't see that. i'm still waiting it out.

  166. To anyone who can help DANI...they have requested info a couple times and I don't have enough knowledge...can anyone help them here...I think Dani is asking about physical.

  167. SP

    the corn futures contract is not that expensive to trade. Timing will be important. Art is the expert there. Crop report tonight I think he said/ I think I heard looking for 85% planted.

    July is tight but Dec is the question. Just parroting what I have been told.

  168. thx atlee i will have to do more due diligence into this.

    i may just go long corn only ultimately after i look at the futures.

    as always ur advice if helpful

  169. @cookie

    the risk is high because there are no nearby MA or bands and the nearest low is 33 then 32.38

    gold is better for a rune to 1556. try to buy around 1515 but I think anywhere is good.

  170. Time is running out for the biggest scam in history .
    This is the third test of the 50 day M/A of the DOW 30 , the first one failed and took us down to the 100 day M/A , the second rebounded and now the 3rd is about to retest the 50 day and 100 day M/A .
    If it fails it will take us down to at least the 11,600 level but possibly a lot lower .

  171. cool i see that & macd wanting to turn up

  172. Big silver battle currently on the upper end of the 3 day trading channel; to me it looks like it wants to break through - if it can maybe we get a pulse for Miyagi!

  173. This may be the most important thing to happen so far with respect to PMs and disposing of the FED.

  174. beck

    Somebody said the Canadian exchanges are closed today. A lot of my 5 letter F stocks are showing no change today. No volume.

  175. Belarus Just Devalued Its Currency By 56%


    Read the comments... interesting stuff.

  177. Well.. ..Trinity B was very specific there with the Tuesday, London time info.

    (Thank you Renald for that link)

  178. @terri5125
    First of all for asking others to help me, I honestly don't know where to check that kind of information (when do options expire for Gold - June?), but I believe it's quite common that the price is smashed down, is that right?

    I am actually trading during my leisure time trying to profit BuyingTFDs

  179. Well I'm seeing the worst losses of the day in my portfolio. NGD just wants to go doooowwwwwnnnnnn. Don't know why, but it keeps retesting 9.0 over and over again.

    3-4:00 has not been kind to miners lately.

  180. Silver rallying into NYSE close? How nice.

    Now if it can just get a bid overnight we might be able to get somewhere tomorrow.

  181. Eric #1,

    Thanks. I am seeing the same thing.

  182. "Well.. ..Trinity B was very specific there with the Tuesday, London time info.

    (Thank you Renald for that link)"

    I missed the memo, what's happening Tuesday London time?

  183. @Dani -- try this:

    Options for JUNE 2011 Gold contracts have their last trading day 5/25

    For a PDF of the full year's worth of dates, see:

  184. okay, so what does get your silver 'READY' mean anyway? and, was London time a give or a take? soooo tired of all the cryptic gah-bage. Oh, the twisted games we play.

  185. @JNG
    "Trinity B said...
    3. I am, of course, not Blythe Masters (who is, incidentally, a very nice person: you should see all the money she gives to and raises for breast cancer charities, for example). But I may as well be her. Make of that whatever you like.

    4. I'm not Sprott's daughter, either (from where the WB project originates). I have no personal financial agenda, and I am certainly not in the position of aiding sickening pump and dumps the like of which you've all just gone through.

    5. If you're buying, make sure you have all your silver ready before midday (London time) on Tuesday. You'll get a nice surprise. I'll let you know if and when it's time to get off the train.

    Big cuddles,


  186. @Ginger

    Specific about the time, typically mysterious about anything else. These cats really love themselves, don't they?

  187. Midday, Tuesday, London.



    Market Manipulation?

  188. What is sick about all of this is that we have no way of knowing whether or not the source of information is legitamet or not. For all we know, some "well-tuned" posters could be disinfo agents themselves, working their way into the community for later time periods.

    Somebody is definitely involved in reading comments sections of websites, and for this reason it is never safe to follow anyone's view but your own.

    Not trying to sound paranoid, just looking at from a wider angle in a larger pond than we as individuals can grasp all at once...

    The only thing I can conclude is something is going on... the charts have been painted for something big to be coming...


  189. OldNavy,
    Yes.. I'm very skeptical. ..Of course my options that I bought way too soon will love it if she's right. :D ....But as someone pointed out on that blog.. Tuesday CAN be a 'happy' day anyway for the metals given past performance (and TF's predictions this week as well).. so, it's always so difficult to guage whether these type of 'informants' (so to speak) are for real ...or not.


  190. Dammit, markets closed in Canada, I was really hoping Silver and Gold would fall today so I can BTFD on Tuesday, but they've stayed at around the same level!! Disappointing.. at least it's starting to have an upward trend now though, even with the overnight low volume raids.

    What's this Trinity B warning, is this person reliable or just another one of those sht disturbers?

  191. Although this song was released in 1993, the lyrics perfectly describe our Govt and the TBTF Banks of today.

  192. Thought this was a well written piece from FORBES Mag. Was on yahoo cover page somewhere.

  193. I don't want to be hostile
    And I don't want to be dismal
    But I don't want to rot in
    An apathetic existence

    See, I want to believe you
    And I wanted to trust you
    And I want to have faith to
    Put away the dagger

    But you lie, cheat and steal
    You lie, cheat and steal
    You lie, cheat and steal
    And yet I tolerate you

    Veil of virtue hung to hide your method
    While I'm smiling and laughing and dance
    And sing and praise your glory
    Shroud of virtue hung to mask your stigma
    As I smile and laugh and dance
    And sing your glory
    While you lie, cheat and steal!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  194. Many newbies here (like myself) to options trading have expressed interest in learning more about how to become an options pro. I haven't read all the way through this yet but it's just one more tool in the arsenal if you are interested in learning how to do this better. From the NIA. They have been advertising that they were working on this for a while and it just got released.

  195. @ Ginger

    I missed that Trinity comment and cant find the original. What were the first 2 points?