Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Waiting For The Bernank

Of course, I have no idea what ole HellyBenny will have to say this afternoon. Because the POSX sits so precariously upon support between 73 and 73.50, I think you have to expect him to try to talk up the dollar. However, as you know, there is reality and there is fantasy. There is fact and there is fiction. There is TRUTH and there is MOPE.

MOPE: 
Management of Perception Economics. A term, coined by Santa himself, to describe the idea that by convincing citizens that all is well, all will actually be well. The Bernank's belief in the "Wealth Effect" is proof of his devotion to MOPE.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm

TRUTH:
Fiscal 2011 U.S. Federal Government outlays: $3.6T. Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government revenue: $2.1T. Total Deficit (need to borrow): $1.5T
Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government outlays: $3.75T. Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government revenue:
$2.1T. Total Deficit (need to borrow): $1.65T
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703361904576143253522341850.html

WHAT QE IS "ABOUT":
1) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
2) Providing free cash for insolvent TBTF/PD banks
3) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
4) Creating the inflation necessary to service existing debts
5) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
6) Infusing cash into the Primary Dealers which they, in turn, can use to buy S&P futures and prop up the stock market (see "Wealth Effect" above)
7) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government

Before The Bernank, takes the podium, please take a moment to ponder from where the U.S. government will find its $1,650,000,000,000 needed for next year without continued Quantitative Easing.
1) China? Nope.
2) Japan? Good one.
3) Europe? Mmmm, no.
4) The Middle East? Negative.
5) TBTF banks. Jim Rickards says so. He's fooling himself. $1.65T? From the banks? Hahaha.

Be not afraid, my friends. The Bernank and his willing accomplices/stooges in the media may preen and posture all they want but MOPE cannot win long term. MOPE may get them by for a day or a few weeks but TRUTH shall prevail in the end.






4:25 PM EDT UPDATE:
Never before have I heard The Bernank take so much time discussing individual commodities. He even mentioned wheat and the drought in Western Kansas, for crying out loud! It seems that The Chairman was taking great measures to shift the blame of commodity cost inflation to supply disruptions and global demand and away from Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Why and why now? To me, The Bernank is again trying to buy himself some time. As stated above, money must continue to be created from thin air if the U.S. Federal Government is going to continue to operate. As austerity is not forthcoming, further quantitative easing is the only possible funding solution. By shifting the blame and focus away from the weakening dollar and onto miniscule, specific events, The Bernank can continue to print money while blaming the attendant continuing rise of all dollar-denominated commodities on "transitory" events.
Again, MOPE can buy you time but TRUTH shall prevail. It's unavoidable.

383 comments:

  1. MARAdona,
    F you. Go to some other blog to try and shit on the author.

    I thought what Rickards said was very interesting. Probably most everyone here heard what Rickards said already. We don't need your "help". Get lost.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The situation continues to appear to be a race to the bottom with every fiat currency facing the inherent fallacy of its creation. I guess we could say the winning fiat will be the one that collapses last and, maybe, becomes the eventual winner. If you can say that what we'll be facing at that point, really means anyone's a winner.

    I stick by what I said earlier today that the Fed will play it cool until the end of August. They need to give the stock market and the economy enough time to tank after QE2....guessing 20% drop from current levels. PMs will ping pong between their relative ranges, i.e. Silver $30 to $40....until enough pressure builds that allows the Fed to continue QE3 by another name. The timing of QE3 or the Default Mortgage Program will be geared to help OBummer get re-elected. Fun times behind...Crazy times now....Sh@tty times in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @bepreparedforanything,
    I agree that is a very possible scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Well, the do need that cooling down, or the economy might hyperinflate faster, I guess

    ReplyDelete
  5. Guys, i feel we really need to debate this Comex has no silver issue. I made a foolish investment prior to May 1st, because I was under the impression that the Comex was about to bust and we would have a short squeeze that would launch the price skyward.

    I know the likes of Kid Dynamite and Brian OFlanagan cause stirs of anger here, but perhaps they are correct in regards to Harvey Organ and the Silver Mafia misinterpreting the SLV EFPs?

    I know we really need a forum, to resolve these types of discussions. I am just afraid that many of us may be relying on somethign that is not the case.

    Case in point, the presumption that JPM has massive short positions and how buying sivler will crash it. Yet, JP Morgan is the biggest beneficiary of the rise in Silver this year. With massive profits and Blythe saving her job?

    What happened to Max Kaisers Silver parity with JP Morgan stock price would kill it?

    Perhaps our faith in QEIII is also misplaced?

    I hope I am wrong, but I believe we really need to clarify some of these beliefs.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @waffen

    I'm afraid there will be no clarity of vision.. as the old saying goes "Opinions are like assholes - everybody's got one, and they all stink".

    I also think the new forum may actually accentuate the vitriol... if you look on most forum sites with different threads going, each thread seems to end up as a slugfest between 2 posters, while a few others comment or spectate. Maybe Turd has a way to short that out, but that's one reason I hardly go to the Kitco forums anymore.

    As for me, I think TPTB will find a way to weasel out of any "Comex bust", the rules or regulations or laws will change or they will go to 200% margin with settlement only on days with a "q" in them. Or the government will step in and "curb the speculators" by only delivering to industrial users. All it takes is a lack of conscience, and since honesty is not in them, they certainly aren't going to fold because we rabble are making noise.

    So I don't think trading counting on the failure of an organization that makes it's own rules is the best approach.

    Just my own stinky opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  7. @waffen

    KidD and BrianO simply do not know what they are talking about.

    If you observe the COMEX short position in silver from last August to the end of April you'd notice the average was about 250 million OZs. Silver was pushed from 18 to 49 during that period.

    Now think of this: If you have enough physical silver to support 250 million OZs short would you allow anyone to push you from 18 to 49? Definitely not. The fact that they were taking it was the easiest tell that they did not have the physical silver to cover it.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The Great Panther Silver Summer Giveaway.

    http://www.tfnn.com/summer-silver-giveaway.php?carousel

    Just found this...maybe some of us Turdites can win some silver this summer from Great Panther.

    Looks like you just enter your name, number, and email each day and they have a drawing. Winner gets a Great Panther 1oz round.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Rui,

    for the benefit of us all, could you please point out the mistakes that KidD made in his response to the ZeroHedge article by JS Kim

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/js-kim-max-keiser-discusses-banker-manipulation-gold-silver-futures#comment-1342908

    ReplyDelete
  10. Didn't the former Soviet Union blame everything on "the weather" when things didn't quite work out the way they wanted them to work out?

    Man, "the drought" sounds a lot like they believe the public will buy it... oh wait, they DO buy it. That's how they have been getting away with this stuff for as long as they have.

    ReplyDelete
  11. http://www.collapsenet.com/free-resources/must-see-videos/item/964-blame-the-peasants

    June 7, 2011, 1300 PDT, SEBASTOPOL -- Max Keiser cuts loose in this one and I'm glad that he did. Not only does he see and clearly understand that the world is out of time, he puts it directly in our faces about how much we are cooperating with a fundamentally evil system that is losing any possible image of being "benevolent". What Keiser sees is the same thing that I see and everyone else who truly understands collapse sees... It has now become all out war to destroy the incomes of working people everywhere on the planet. "It is clear that what must happen for these schemes to work is to reduce the average American income from $40,000 a year to $4,000 a year so that wages can be uniform across the globe."

    That's what the banks do. They blame everything on us. And make no mistake about it, the banks want and need to kill us to maintain control for just a little while longer.

    As long as ten years ago I saw and stated the obvious truth that as industrial civilization shuts down it would be necessary to destroy American incomes to provide a level playing field... for the banks.

    My inner anger is rising daily. I have been sitting on it waiting for the time when its expression might bring a little benefit because all of us with our heads out of our butts are getting that angry. Keiser's venting is appropriate now for all of us because the time is here when civilization enters the Social Phase of collapse. We all need to get this angry.

    If you are a Collapsenet member, save this one for after you have read the stories on the World News Desk. This is a bucket of real cold water, right in the face. And it will hopefully shock you into fully understanding how precarious these last few months of "business-as-usual" hypnotism really are... and what is waiting for us all when they vanish forever by the end of next month.

    Bravo, Max Keiser. -- MCR or Micheal C. Ruppert

    http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-153-keiser-report/

    ReplyDelete
  12. @waffen

    the COMEX thing has been going on for months and years. it is highly possible that it will go bust. it is also possible that with the right amount of cash, they don't need silver to settle the accounts. what would u rather have, if u r a hedge fund, $100 million of silver bars in a vault or $150 million of cash? in other words, since the silver market is so small, they can essentially bribe their way out of giving silver.

    ok, now u may say, well, why would a hedge fund want paper currency instead of silver? i asked my cousin this (he manages a small fund ~100 million at a hedge fund with overall ~2-3 billion, to put in perspective, he is a small guy)- he said don't believe the blog conspiracy, don't believe the COMEX nonsense, etc. now this doesn't mean his right. but it does mean that he is in denial about his glorious paper (not that much denial as he is sitting on a lot of gold & farm property).

    but from job perspective, he basically also said, how the hell will i give bars of silver to my clients, how can i even explain this to them, esp now since it is $30? btw, in fairness to the guy, he got me and the fams into gold and silver in the late 90s so he was positive about PM at some point.

    ok finally, what i think is that a large entity (like China) could bust the comex and not take the bribe. but do u think the Chinese would do that, thus busting the PM nonsense, thus killing the dollar when they still have trillions of $ to unload!!!!

    btw, imo, the only way comex will go bust is if TPTB thinks it is only an industrial metal & not a monetary metal with no impact on the gold price (which is the key price at this point). i don't think they believe that and i think they can definitely bribe people to be convinced.

    in fact, i'll sell anyone all of my silver for a 50% premium today and just go buy it somewhere else!!

    ReplyDelete
  13. btw for all of u guys dabbling in trading i'd recommend u seriously watch out right now.

    as they say, don't fight the fed. well, no one (including the fed) seems to know what the hell they are doing right now. i have 99.99999% belief that there will be another round of QE (meteor could hit the planet, fusion generator created tomorrow could ruin that). but i can't tell u the date. it is the date that will move the markets. they will be choppy until given direction, just like any group of drunk adolescents will be while waiting for the final booby peak...so be careful. if we our lucky we may get 20-30% decline across the board. if that happens, i will consider this the best summer xmas ever!

    ReplyDelete
  14. My issue with KidD and O'Flanagan is their consistent dismissal of the (to me) obvious fact of market dislocation, oligarchic control and ongoing manipulation. Everything else they say is tainted by this willful ignorance/explaining away of documented, proven reality.

    As for MARAdona -- have YOU READ Mr. Rickards' bio? Carefully? It reads like the rap sheet of a serial economic/geopolitical hitman (should you choose to look at it that way): "He has held senior executive positions at “sell side” firms (Citibank and RBS Greenwich Capital Markets) and “buy side” firms (Long-Term Capital Management etc.)" <-- ALL of these are shining examples of prudent financial policy and "saving the financial system", right??

    Then: "Mr. Rickards has been a direct participant in many of the most significant financial events over the past 30 years including the 1981 release of US hostages in Iran, the 1987 Stock Market Crash, the 1990 collapse of Drexel, and the LTCM financial crisis of 1998 in which Mr. Rickards was the principal negotiator of the government-sponsored rescue. " So this is the man we are supposed to bow down to and accept unconditionally as the arbiter of true reality?

    Titus said it best (and much more to the point) -- FYVM & GTFO until you can converse & debate in a civilized manner, and (if you are truly interested in figuring out the truth) look in the mirror to recognize you are in the throes of the same mindless sycophancy you accuse all of us of indulging in.

    ReplyDelete
  15. CD,
    for the benefit of us all here, can you please point out any mistakes that KidD has made in any of his analysis of the silver market?

    ReplyDelete
  16. I guess everyone closely follows these blogs, but there's a couple new good posts:

    Jim Sinclair - Gold to Exceed $12,500 to Balance US Debt
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/7_Jim_Sinclair_-_Gold_to_Exceed_$12,500_to_Balance_US_Debt.html

    Trader Dan - A potential signal for further monetary stimulus, aka, Quantitative Easing
    http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks, CD. That's more or less what I figured. And I didn't dismiss Mr. Rickards. I asked a question: What difference it makes where the borrowed money comes from. I guess I'll need to find that answer elsewhere.

    I'm sure we are all familiar with the Peter Principle, that people continue to rise until they reach their level of incompetence. That's always in my mind when I consider the thinking of "the top people in their field".

    ReplyDelete
  18. Waffen.......you are in a war trading the paper market and you have to know you counterparty. They are much more powerful than you and make the rules. They are playing a game and many factors enter into their calculations. They will NOT go broke in the near term imo.....but that does not mean the price of silver will not climb much higher this year. 2012 will be a different story as the confluences of multiple major cycles collide. It should be quite a fireworks show. Unfortunately many of you will be wiped out in paper trades or on a personal economic scorched earth deflationary spiral as unemployment begins to effect areas of the economy you never dreamed it would. Some very smart people have advocated not being in the paper trade of PMs....I have elected to remain a participant which I may regret...but I like to test myself against the true powere. You cannot leverage yourself and you must remain patient. Gold and silver are going higher......much higher.

    ReplyDelete
  19. So why are we fighting this? Why are we all getting pissed off about this? I have a little bit of physical silver, just started stacking in March, good timing huh?

    I was one of the sheep that just didn't pay much attention to all the world's fiat currency. We all agree the sh*t will hit the fan, now a little later than sooner. It will happen.

    So, unless you were about to sell your silver/gold to pay the rent or mortgage or planned to buy a boat tomorrow....you should all be smiling and grinning from ear to ear....we get to buy silver at $25-$28-$30-$32 oz, and we get to buy gold at $1250 - $1300 - $1400.

    I can't wait to buy my first oz of gold!

    I'm only pissed that we will only get a last shot at these low prices this summer, (and I have to pay for a wedding this summer)...then QE3 will take over and the prices will start to increase and probably not look back.

    For those pissed off, like me, that loss some money...man up...this is the stock market..not playing cards with your Dad, when he gives money back if you lose.

    Learn to make money in a declining market...there are a ton of bear etfs...ZSL, DXD, FAZ, SCO etc.

    Learn from Pailin...she announced and stuck by her call of shorting silver from $38, even while some started to getting upset towards her. These posts along with Turd's posts are what leaders are made out of.

    We are here to share knowledge, make dollars, and prepare for when the dollar falls apart, right?

    Stop thinking that buying 20 ozs of ASE is going to bankrupt JPM or shut down the Comex or make Ben cry before he goes to bed.

    Start thinking, if I can buy silver/gold cheaper now and it increases in value (or store my wealth)for the years to come.....(insert personal dreams).

    ReplyDelete
  20. @ Turdle GG

    KidD was right about one thing: it's consensual between the sellers and buyers @FarceMex to settle in whatever paper vehicles they agree upon but that just proves COMEX to be what I call it - a farce.

    There are three groups that can affect silver price at COMEX: Big shorts (Morgue), big algo-driven traders (hedge fund managers) and big longs (China). None of them has interest in busting FarceMex. Us shrimps have too shallow a wallet to affect it.

    Morgue has obviously no reason to bust it.

    Hedgies are hunting for the cash gain only like WB group so while they enjoy riding the trend they are not interested in buying and holding the physicals. That's why you see them settling in papers a lot. They are looking for cash profit to begin with.

    China has no reason either as it serves them no good to have their Dollar reserve free falling in value over a COMEX default. Plus the real big longs always buy directly from the pit or, better yet, simply buy the mine altogether so they don't acquire the metals by shopping from the open market only.

    Actually big longs enjoy watching us shrimps running into the May bloodbath kinda ambush. They don't want to enter at the high, which would make them holding the bags for shrimps. They'd love to see small fella being blown outta the water first. When there's blood in the street and everyone gets scared they put their bids in, which might explain why Martin Armstrong keeps saying there'd be a huge retest before metal launching the next leg. He's probably thinking of how big longs usually enter the market. I'm not sure he can get it this time tho.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Turdle, I am at a loss to point to a specific point or error in judgement/reasoning. I am NOT saying there is a specific error I can prove.

    But look at this:
    "Note: I have nothing against silver. What I’m against is mass mis-information in the silver community, and those novices who base their trades based on faulty information fed to them by others who themselves don’t even have a clue what they are talking about. It’s sad. It’s tragic." June 7, 2011

    "Is Weiner’s Wiener-gate the Latest Attempt To Manipulate the Price of Silver Lower?" 6/2/2011

    "So You Still Think JP Morgan Is Short Billions of Ounces of Silver?" 5/11/2011

    "In what will go down as another impossible to appreciate ironic twist, the silver bugs will be up in arms this evening, ranting endlessly about manipulation and attempts to quash the silver rally, as the COMEX has raised margin requirements on silver futures for the third time in a week. Meanwhile, today’s price action in silver should put to rest any accusations that such margin hikes are unreasonable! The chicken and the egg analogy comes in because the silver bugs won’t understand that the margin hikes are a reaction to silver’s extreme price action recently – not vice versa." 5/2/2011

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/

    For an objective, disinterested poker afficionado, KD goes to an awful lot of trouble to ridicule anyone and everyone who considers precious metals to be a viable investment/trade, and anyone who dares to question that markets are free & fair. That is all.

    ReplyDelete
  22. @Pailin

    Thanh thinks you have boobs and your first name is Sarah. LOL. Pailin is a dude bro.

    Welcome to the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  23. http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/01/the-next-financial-crisis-will-be-hellish-and-its-on-its-way/

    “'There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner,” says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius, “because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis.'

    "We’re raising our alert status for the next financial crisis. We already raised it last week after spreads on U.S. credit default swaps started blowing out. We raised it again after seeing the remarks of Mr. Mobius, chief of the $50 billion emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management.

    "Speaking in Tokyo, he pointed to derivatives, the financial hairball of futures, options, and swaps in which nearly all the world’s major banks are tangled up."

    MUST READ -- The very first economic alert I ever issued at From The Wilderness on September 9th, 2001 was all about derivatives. This is the crushing weight now threatening to implode. The $600 trillion number is way low. Nicole Foss and I both estimate the derivatives bubble at well over $1 quadrillion dollars. All of that is useless paper debt that cannot be supported by physical assets or now forever-gone cheap energy.

    It's here. It's now. We will soon be in a whole new world. I'm just grateful that so many of us have been preparing for a while. -- MCR

    ReplyDelete
  24. @CD: Wow, flip side of the coin right? I didn't defend what Jim Rickards DOES, who he has worked for, and I certainly didn't say that Citi and LTCM are great did I? Nope, I did not thank you very much! The fact that you judge Rickards for just having worked for those institutions or being involved in government negotiations is pathetic and impish.

    What I did intone is that Mr. Rickards likely knows a hell of a lot more than Turd about how the Treasury market works, how the lack of QE can be picked up by other participants in the market, and the ways in which a QE-less market might function, and any other such things that actually relate to the truth of a market and not some comic acronyms and Star Wars references to pseudo-bad guys.

    But you might be right, maybe a guy named Turd who asks for donations to fund websites, rather than relying on the killer gains made from his stunning trading prowess, knows more than a guy who has 30 years of experience in high level monetary, governmental, and bank operations.

    Or loosely translated for you: "baaaahhhhhh" :)

    ReplyDelete
  25. @waffen,

    If you bought physical silver, you didn't make a foolish mistake. Keep buying, accumulate and listen to the experts like James Turk. I've heard those types of arguments for over ten years now. My advice to you is to ignore them and focus on your own situation.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeQtpRGSI_8&amp

    ReplyDelete
  26. Beprepared--not necessarily the last shall be first. Bernankenstein's academic career, not without factual back up, led him to believe that the Great Depression was caused by tight money in the face of economic collapse and deflation. In the actual case, it appears that those countries whose currencies were devalued the soonest were the first to recover and became the strongest. Now, it may be that to divorce the economic policy from the geopolitical situation that existed from the late 30's through 1945 leads to an incorrect conclusion, but this is what Ben is bringing to the party. Hence, Helicopter Ben: it is better to severely lower the value of paper currency in order to get the economy moving than suffer the human cost of sound money in a great deflation where the lower classes will die in the streets. Why? Well, the political changes in Italy and Germany are his answer.

    Is he right? WTFDIK.

    I do know I just bought more July silver at 36.90. We'll see how it goes.

    GLTA

    ReplyDelete
  27. Lets all hold hands and sing Kumbaya.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Turd, what a great overview you provided and yes, the TRUTH will set us free in every way, every day no matter what the MOPER’s say. And no matter what the likes of maradona says in his/her haughty way. Beside, I saw no dismissal of JR, only the thought of banks bailing out the Fed. Not sure what the kerfuffel is about. Anyway…

    Only one point in your post do you miss a possibility. It was the same point that the agitator pointed out but not testy and not a condemnation or insult. And that’s on the issue of where the U.S. government will find its $1,650,000,000,000 needed for next year without continued Quantitative Easing.

    Rickards may be wrong but right at the same time. It is quite possible the TBTF banks will be the ones who step up and cover the $1,650T.
    Here’s how it could play out: The Bernank prints a special batch of fiat, transfers it in some creative and hidden manner over to his banksterbuds.

    Then the TBTF buds, with much planning, timing, pomp and ceremony… trumpeted from high atop the MSM towers in NY, give it back to the Fedsters. Kind of like the JP Morgan of old has been reincarnated to highjack, uh, hold hostage, no, I mean SAVE the American economy! Oh, the patriotism. The JPM and NY TBTF banksters become the saviours of Wall Street, um, Main Street.
    Surely there would be a ticker tape parade.

    The only thing the banksters ask for in return (as though they weren’t given the chips in the triple wildcard poker game that they play/control) is, they ask that all mortgage backed derivative OTC nightmare be excused and rolled up into a nice, neat little package called “Ten-Year Moratorium on Fraud Comeuppance” (TYCFC) and traded (exchanged/stolen) for IRA’s and 401K’s from coast to coast across the fruited plains.

    In a decade, when the paper promise comes due they will have long since scattered like roaches, assumed new identities and lived a high life somewhere in South America.

    ReplyDelete
  29. CD,
    I think he likes to ridicule because much of the "analysis" out there is based on beliefs rather than facts.

    I'm not saying I know all the facts. All I'm saying is that I do prefer to take note of someone who has specific knowledge of some technical aspect of a market I'm interested in. I don't care if his knowledge is "tainted" by some character quirk/arrogance/whatever.

    ReplyDelete
  30. @Thanh

    I agree with you. Often people feel a need to get angry, but the really is no point to it. We are fish in the ocean in these macro issues. We just need to swim with the currents, stick together in our school and eat all we can consume. No point in getting angry at the sharks. They're just being sharks. They can't help it. I only get pissed at myself when I miss an opportunity to gobble a little morsel.

    ReplyDelete
  31. @MARAdona,

    If you can't tell the difference between Turd and a some newsletter writer trying to cheat people out of their money, then it is clear to nearly everyone that you don't have any judgment.

    Get lost.

    ReplyDelete
  32. [Sigh]. {Facepalm} Nevermind, MARA. You are much more adept at proving my point than I could ever hope to be.

    Just out of curiosity, do you have any other points to impart other than that Rickards is God when it comes to discussions of monetary policy, and Turd is a laughable amateurish hack, who is 'ripping off' the readers of this blog and gives us nothing but mumbo-jumbo? I would be honored to learn from your vast well of experience, which you are so generously sharing with us.

    ReplyDelete
  33. @Titus: Is Jim Rickards selling a newsletter? Where did I vouch for any newsletter writer? Are you high every time you respond to me?

    The difference between Turd and a newsletter writer is that one guy asks for money and one demands it. Of course guys like Doug Casey, Brent Cook, Gerald Celente, James Dines, Richard Russell, and any number of other newsletter writers are really "cheating" people out of their money right? All of those guys are crooks right...right? *crickets*

    ReplyDelete
  34. All right Sarah! Yeah, I'd hit that...

    ReplyDelete
  35. Turdle -- agreed. Contrary viewpoints sharpen and hone thinking/mind.

    My problem is that KD is just as blinded by an apparent belief that there is NO conspiracy/unfair market behavior/manipulation as are the 'hardcore' conspiracy theorists to whom every flutter of a pigeon's wing in Central Park was ordered by BB/Dimon/Blythe.

    The gentleman doth protest a bit too much, methinks, that's all. I am not sure his belief in fair & efficient markets is genuine.

    ReplyDelete
  36. @Atlee

    re: Pailin being a dude and not a dudette.

    Maybe that's why he (she) has such big balls.
    Thanks for the correction. and thanks for the welcome.

    My only dilemma is whether or not to roll over my Trad IRA into a Roth IRA before taxes are increased, or to cash out the Trad IRA and buy a bunch of physical gold/silver.

    I suppose it all depends on what the future wife allows me to do. (This just goes to show I probably have smaller balls than Pailin.)

    ReplyDelete
  37. Correction: I am fairly sure his belief in fair & efficient markets is NOT genuine. His reasoning (like any logical train of thought) rest on some basic assumptions assumed to be facts. The structure can be sound, but if the underlying assumption is false, the argument in turn is also false.

    Which is not to say he can't be right. But his reasoning does not (to me) satisfactorily explain the ~10x increase in Ag price over the last 10 years, and especially not the tripling since last summer.

    ReplyDelete
  38. One last thing and then I'm done with this.

    MARAdona - I posed four questions to you in my "silly, uninformed" post. The only one you chose to address in your reply was that, yes, the whole point of your original post seems to have been to pick a fight. You may think this is intelligent conversation and/or debate on your part. It is not.

    ReplyDelete
  39. I cashed out of half of my long Comex gold position. These Zero Hedge articles kind of freaked me out.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-qe-3-optimism-excessive

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-more-cold-water-goldman-bernanke-speech-suggests-fed-squarely-zone-inaction

    They're in line with my own thinking and similar to what @bepreparedforanything said above.

    ReplyDelete
  40. What do you all think about Micheal Ruppert's prediction that by the end of july we will be witnessing a global economic collapse that will turn into the beginning of a worldwide great depression era?


    MCR has a 80% correct track record when predicting economic future trends. He predicted the 2008 financial collapse in 2002.



    http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/01/the-next-financial-crisis-will-be-hellish-and-its-on-its-way/

    “'There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner,” says hedge fund legend Mark Mobius, “because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis.'

    "We’re raising our alert status for the next financial crisis. We already raised it last week after spreads on U.S. credit default swaps started blowing out. We raised it again after seeing the remarks of Mr. Mobius, chief of the $50 billion emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management.

    "Speaking in Tokyo, he pointed to derivatives, the financial hairball of futures, options, and swaps in which nearly all the world’s major banks are tangled up."

    MUST READ -- The very first economic alert I ever issued at From The Wilderness on September 9th, 2001 was all about derivatives. This is the crushing weight now threatening to implode. The $600 trillion number is way low. Nicole Foss and I both estimate the derivatives bubble at well over $1 quadrillion dollars. All of that is useless paper debt that cannot be supported by physical assets or now forever-gone cheap energy.

    It's here. It's now. We will soon be in a whole new world. I'm just grateful that so many of us have been preparing for a while. -- MCR

    ReplyDelete
  41. I signed up for a free trial of a trading service. They email me couple a dozen times a day with trades in commodities. Been watching them for a week. They use wave cycles and fibonacci and pivots. So far they havent had a profitable trade! They couldn't hit their ass with both hands although they do have a good commentary. They went long a mini silver contract tonight at 37.23 with a stop at 35.20!!
    They are looking for 38.60 by Friday. LOL. risking 2 for 1.37. Now that is what I call money management. Too funny.

    The daily gold stoch is no longer imbedded. If it stays that way, it is time to get the truck out of Dodge.

    ReplyDelete
  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  43. CD,

    Good comment. I might add that those of us vets who have watched this process unfold since the 1990's (I shit you not), are accutely aware of the KidD's and Brian OFlanagans of this world. You can spot them a mile away after awhile.

    I'll stick with the experts who have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt what they know to be true as it pertains to PM's. Sinclair, Embry, Turk, are the types I am talking about. Perma bulls? Yes, so don't expect day trading advice. You want sound logic, superb reasoning and a decade worth of solid gains? They have done it.

    Anyhow, best of luck to those here. Hang in there. We will see new highs in due time. I expect them sooner than later myself. The US cannot pay its bills or even continue on without more QE. It's that simple.

    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  44. @ Tristan
    That is the 2nd time in 15 minutes you have posted that. quadrillion dollars? is that all?
    I thought it was a bazillion sextillion tragillion dollars. Whew, what a relief. We can all breathe easier now. I was getting tired of wearing this combat helmet and flack jacket.

    ReplyDelete
  45. CD - I just want to weigh in here real quick, and then I'll be gone, because you just metioned a key, key point, that frustrates me to no end.

    "His reasoning (like any logical train of thought) rest on some basic assumptions assumed to be facts. "

    ahhh - no. they're not ASSUMED to be facts - they are facts - that's the point. When I tell you that JS Kim is incorrect in what he wrote about EFPs, you don't have to take my word for it - you can go and look it up on your own. It's not my opinion - it's fact.

    If you're talking about my assuming that SLV has the silver they claim to have - well, I guess that's an "opinion" of sorts, but every fact points to my side of the "debate." It's not something I really want to get into AGAIN in a comment thread now, but SLV is the key to the silver market - which is why critics attack it so vociferously.

    and a correction - i positively do not "goes to an awful lot of trouble to ridicule anyone and everyone who considers precious metals to be a viable investment/trade"

    I readily admit to ridiculing those who allow their emotions to cause these "investment" to become RELIGION, and those who blindly follow whatever line of nonsense they are spoon fed, regardless of how wrong it is (just look at the reaction to the JS Kim piece! it's a PERFECT example). Take a step back and see if you can see how the online silver community resembles Harold Camping and the Rapture crew...

    Oh, and if you buy silver and bury it out in the woods 4ft underground in a PVC pipe and mark the spot via GPS, i'll probably ridicule you, but that's a slightly tangential topic.

    best of luck to all.

    ReplyDelete
  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  47. @atlee,
    What stochastic settings do you use?

    ReplyDelete
  48. @ Kid Dynamite:

    I have read your posts on your and SGS blog. In my opinion, some has merit some does not. But my question is that if you feel the way you do about the online silver community, why do you bother? What is it to you? Is it your mission to piss on their leg? You seem reasonably inteligent. Why are you wasting your time engaging the unwashed?

    ReplyDelete
  49. @ titus

    14, 3, 3. Same as Ira.

    ReplyDelete
  50. I don't post often...but follow the blog pretty regularly.

    Most posers here seem to be open, honest and respectful.

    However, I read MARAdona post, to to be as polite as I can; he comes across like a douche, whose mother probably kicked his azz when he was a kid.

    Clearly, he has no idea how to communicate, has poor people skills and is a flamiung azzhole.

    As I tell my kids: You have the right to do and say what you like, but, more important than that is HOW you say and do things.
    That is what you are judged on.

    So MARAdona, as a few have already said; go fluck yourself and get lost.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  51. I don't always post, but when I do, I prefer to post what's important: you're going to want to keep an eye on 10 tomorrow! You'd have never seen it coming!

    ReplyDelete
  52. anyone have any comments about this after market mini-crash? Seems most commodities getting knocked back off their gains from the day.

    ReplyDelete
  53. @Larry

    Your post was much more substantial and articulate than mine (to MARA), but you ultimately make the same point. Even if the money does come from the TBTF banks,so what? They ARE the FED. It's still the same old shell game that's been going for 100 years.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Looks like silver is being duck walked down tonight, I'm thinking we could see a good buying opportunity in the $35 range tonight or tomorrow.....although the lack of QE3 has many people spooked so we could see a retest of that $33-$34 range if things get really crazy. Long term silvers a lock above $50, but if you're using leverage right now....good luck is all I can say!

    ReplyDelete
  55. @Atlee -

    FANTASTIC question - WHY DO I CARE? I actually tried to answer that for a few colleagues today.

    I have a compulsion. It's a "sickness" - when I see misinformation being spread, I feel the need to correct it. I guess it's not the worst compulsion to have, but it's a very unrewarding one.

    You've seen this cartoon, right?

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/my-life-its-funny-sad-because-its-true/

    that's me.

    In silver, specifically, I pity the poor folks who come into the market, read blatantly false stuff, and get buried. It's sad. It's tragic. I don't derive pleasure from watching people get their faces ripped off by trading off bad information - I try to prevent it by educating them. that's all.

    So, for example, people can stock up on silver because they read that 99% of all trades are settled in paper EFPs, and they concluded that the COMEX is about to implode - or they can understand what EFPs really are, what they mean for the market, and why concluding that the failure of the COMEX is imminent because you looked at and misunderstood the EFP data is a terrible trading/investing strategy.

    good night, good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  56. I have a great strategy. Buy silver today and trade it for bread sometime later on. I'm not even worried about stocking up on toilet paper - I'll have plenty of federal reserve notes to use for that.

    ReplyDelete
  57. MARAdona I really tried to think of you as not a troll.

    But you are.

    Pulled the classic "aha! I made you assume I back Rickards. Well we all know what happens when you ASSUME"

    Right, so you attack Turd invoking Rickards. But you don't necessarily back Rickards. And you don't necessarily not back Rickards.

    Net it isn't about Rickards. It's just about Turd.

    What a jagoff move.

    ReplyDelete
  58. @DE

    Great thoughts...the different angles on this discussion helps put light on how things might unfold. I agree with you that Bernie's motivation is to have just enough inflation to stave off deflation...and to have the dollar in the sweet spot of maintaining its reserve status. I know Prof. Bernie considers himself the ultimate pontificator of all things related to the Great Depression and I also believe, as incredulous as it may sound, that he knows that this is different.

    We, as a country, are the following:

    (1) 1930s - Creditor Nation
    2010s - Debtor Nation

    (2) 1930s - Industrial & Agricultural based Econ
    2010s - Service based Econ (with some Ag)

    (3) 1930s - Nation not at war
    2010s - Multiple wars in several countries

    This list could seemingly go on forever. We are missing so many of things that made us what we were are that time. I can't see people waiting patiently in line at a soup kitchen...riots would break out if the food stamp program was cut in half. Our norms and mores are so different...our understanding about individual rights as vested by our Creator and as scribed in Our Constitution has been lost by most of us.

    The Depression we are in now is so much different than the 1930s Depression. There really aren't too many bag of tricks left that won't eventually lead to a very difficult political and economic shift within our country. Print and inflate or Raise Interest rates and default. Whatever the action, the Fed is motivated only to serve the banks and to maintain a President also willing to serve the banks. We, the People, don't factor in too much anymore other than what will keep us asleep. Eventually, the last vestiges of caring at all will be removed when martial law is put in place against in what will be construed as a national crisis. What's sad is most people will most likely be clamoring for martial law and the loss of their liberty without realizing they will most likely lose if for good.

    Believe or not, I'm generally considered an optimist...the last couple of years and the facts contained within them though...leave little room other than to seek to be prepared for anything. :-}

    ReplyDelete
  59. Jim Rickards is one of the good guys.
    Turd Ferguson is one of the good guys.
    I do not need to choose between the two.
    I am free, in fact I am compelled, to read both and make up my own friggin mind.

    ReplyDelete
  60. @KD - It's good to see that you drop by/follow this blog.

    It's also heartwarming to know that you care so much about the few / hordes of misguided silverphreaks to educate them so they may avoid getting fleeced. It would be nice if you could try to do so in a way that does not also imply that you consider the lot of them (and most anybody who does not agree with your viewpoint, whatever that may be) to be utter imbeciles.

    It would also be more interesting if, instead of tearing down strawmen and the occasional real mistake and claiming the whole thing (e.g. silver is currently undervalued, and the US economy/currency is on an unsustainable path) is a massive hoax, you could lay out your theory on how and why things are rolling the way they are.

    If you already have such a piece I honestly would like to read it.

    ReplyDelete
  61. @Kid

    Didn't read your post about how Kim was wrong. Below is a portion of what he posted. Can you explain again. Also, is he one of the newsletter writers that rip people off? I believe his returns are pretty outstanding over the last 4 years.


    Exchange Rule 104.36 enacted on February 18, 2005, which allows for the substitution of gold ETFs for physical gold, states that the “physical” part of the transaction “need only be substantially the economic equivalent of the futures contract being exchanged” and that “the purpose of this Notice is to confirm that the Exchange would accept gold-backed exchange-traded funds (‘ETF’) shares as the physical commodity component for an EFP transaction involving COMEX gold futures contracts, provided that all elements of a bona fide EFP pursuant to Exchange Rule 104.36 are satisfied. Thus, acceptable gold-backed and exchange-traded ETF funds include, but are not limited to, the iSharesCOMEX Gold Trust (ticker: IAU), which began trading on the American Stock Exchange on January 28, 2005.”

    ReplyDelete
  62. @ Ben Bernanke

    You have a great sense of humor. I actually get a chuckle everytime I see your post "First" on this thread.

    Do me a favor, let silver raise over night, I'll buy some ZSL just before your 10am beatdown. Or you could have just said 7:30am, 8am, 10:30am, 12noon, 1:30pm etc.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I know nothing about technical analysis, but I do look at your graphs and find them informative.

    However, I was looking at this post's crude graph, and I was wondering why you chose such a long term scale for the top line. To me, the top line could have been just as easily plotted from last wednesday to today, making it far more inclined, which would indicate that crude would be close to breaking the range very soon (like tomorrow), either up or down ?

    Like I said, beginner's comment here, but it seems to me that the positioning of the "range lines" it a bit arbitrary ?

    ReplyDelete
  64. SUMMARIZATION OF TODAY'S COMMENTS:

    atlee as always u killed it, esp with the thanh/pailin bit.

    kid dynamite is some dude explaining how the silver system works and how those thinking comex will explode are retarded. he has reasonable points but to get to his point, "we will be screwed by the bankers not the comex" (my quote).

    some soccer player was very angry that some bald fat guy he likes was not appropriately respected. to encourage our respect he kindly posted a link to fat guy's "bio" which basically looks like every other 50 yr old guy in manhattan's resume.

    bernake is an asshole who doesn't know what he is doing and presents things like he is the stutterer in 6th grade.

    also (this is a guess) some guy probably said that saturn may cross jupiter and therefore silver will go down tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
  65. Kid Dynamite must have attended the same school as MARAdona: he sounds like a douche, can't present a point without being combative and was abused by the same step uncle when he was 8.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  66. @ Turd- bbdgoco

    Can't believe BB said North Dakota is an example of low employment.

    North Dakota!!

    Population: 672,591 rank 48th

    Economy: Agriculture and Energy

    No wonder their unemployment is low

    June 7, 2011 4:21 PM
    -----------------------------------------------
    Turd...great site...been lurking a few months and picked a spot to chime in.

    I'm not a resident of North Dakota, but have read Ellen Brown and her Web Of Debt articles. I'm surprised the Bernank mentioned it.

    How North Dakota Escaped the Credit Crunch
    Ironically, the only state to have one of these socialist-sounding credit machines is a conservative Republican state. The state-owned Bank of North Dakota (BND) has allowed North Dakota to maintain its economic sovereignty, a conservative states-rights sort of ideal. The BND was established in 1919 in response to a wave of farm foreclosures at the hands of out-of-state Wall Street banks. Today the state not only has no debt, but it recently boastedits largest-ever budget surplus. The BND helps to fund not only local government but local businesses and local banks, by partnering with the banks to provide the funds to support small business lending.

    The BND is also a boon to the state treasury. It has a return on equity of 25-26%, and it has contributed over $300 million to the state (its only shareholder) in the past decade -- a notable achievement for a state with a population less than one-tenth the size of Los Angeles County. In comparison, California’s public pension funds are down more than $100 billion—that’s billion with a “b”—or close to half the funds’ holdings, following the Wall Street debacle of 2008. It was, in fact, the 2008 bank collapse rather than overpaid public employees that caused the crisis that shrank state revenues and prompted the budget cuts in the first place.

    Seven States Are Now Considering Setting Up Public Banks

    Faced with federal inaction and growing local budget crises, an increasing number of states are exploring the possibility of setting up their own state-owned banks, following the North Dakota model. On January 11, 2011, a bill to establish a state-owned bank was introduced in the Oregon State legislature; on January 13, a similar bill was introduced in Washington State; on January 20, a bill for a state bank was filed in Massachusetts (following a 2010 bill that had lapsed); and on February 4, a bill was introduced in the Maryland legislature for a feasibility study looking into the possibilities. They join Illinois, Virginia, and Hawaii, which introduced similar bills in 2010, bringing the total number of states with such bills to seven.

    http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/wisconsin.php

    ReplyDelete
  67. @John

    That's interesting info... of course, my pessimistic inner voice says that in most states, a state bank would just be another place for the the state to borrow huge amounts of money with no ability to pay it back, and the Fed would have to bail them out with QE7 or QE8. Fiscal sanity is generally not a requirement for state politicians.

    ReplyDelete
  68. @Kid dynamite

    So the short answer is you are a narcissist. I mean come on, even your handle "Kid Dynamite". Whatever gets you through the night but be honest about your motive and what you are. Most others recognize it immediately .

    ReplyDelete
  69. I would just call him (kdynamite) an azz.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  70. KD has long held an avid interest in PM funds (ETFs and otherwise). The gentleman certainly seems knowledgeable and intelligent -- perhaps his work was in some way connected to setting up these vehicles?

    There is merely a stubborn resolution on his part to assume that a) markets are fair and efficient, b) market actors (esp. market makers) are ethical and law-abiding, c) rules are well understood, rigorously and equitably enforced, d) all financial vehicles, methods, technologies, exchanges, tools -- ANY financial innovation is inherently GOOD b/c it increases the 'efficiency' of the markets.

    Despite some poignant observations as to the corruption in the financial system, he seems to be very much a 'company man' at heart.

    I will try to read more, b/c his level of expertise (if real) may be good to learn from -- or (if not real) still good to learn from so as to learn how to emulate knowledge.

    http://kiddynamitesworld.com/category/best-of-kid-dynamite/

    Also, take a look at his dates:
    "Kid Dynamite spent 8 years as a trader at a major Wall Street investment bank. From June 1999 thru April 2005 he specialized in portfolio trading, and from May 2005 thru November 2007 he was the head trader for an internal hedge fund on the buy side of the same firm where he managed a multi-billion dollar merger arbitrage portfolio, and continued to implement portfolio trading related strategies as well."

    Do we know any firms with internal hedge funds which might have necessitated moving to the woods of New Hampshire in November 2007?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOMPCGL25O4Y&refer=home

    ReplyDelete
  71. John

    In my post I was in no way denigrating the state or people of North Dakota. Not at all. In fact, I hold the hard working farmers and oil patch folks in high regard.

    My point was the Bernack pointing to ND as a place that was not impacted with high unemployment was disingenuous when one considers the small population. He was being very selective, just as he was when he said the weather was a bigger factor in high agriculture prices than Fed policies. That's just plain BS. My other point, it is no wonder the unemployment rate is low. The Dakotans are producing real commodities that are in high demand.

    btw my first sentence should have read: Can't believe BB said North Dakota is an example of low UNemployment.

    Hope this clears up my earlier comments.

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Happy: How can I back Rickards, or Turd for that matter, if I have no idea what will happen? If I knew what would happen I wouldn't back either because I'd not need to listen to either of them. Who do I believe has a much greater grasp on the Federal Reserve's mindset and the intricacies of the Treasury Market? Jim Rickards without a doubt.

    I believe Turd is foolish for mocking Rickards', while not even attempting to dissect what Rickards says, most likely because he has no ability to discredit what Rickards says since Rickards almost certainly knows far far far more than Turd will ever know due to his position in the financial hierarchy. If you don't understand this then don't even bother responding to me because you're a sheep.

    If being a troll means asking questions of those who discredit far more knowledgeable people than themselves then I'm a troll. If I ever need to open a frozen yogurt stand I'll be sure to ask Turd, not Jim Rickards. Happy now? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  73. Where are all the "helpers" on the slow days?

    ReplyDelete
  74. Pretty sad KidD,

    Compare silver bulls to Harold Camping and the Rapture crew? That's just fantastic. Are you always such a "know it all" asshole?

    Expect no civility or respect from me going forward as you deserve none.

    Good luck finding "followers" of your own for that blog you have going.

    And for the record, SLV's prospectus resembles Swiss Cheese. Thanks, but I don't need you to explain that to me with your totally "biased" view, you banking shill.

    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  75. MARAdona -

    TF challenged 1 specific point/claim from Rickards -- how is that 'discrediting'?

    why don't you enlighten us blighted idiots reading the musings of an ice cream man, what DID Rickard specifically say?

    Or better yet, just go here:

    http://www.tangentcapital.com/team/rickards.html

    Email James directly. Enroll at his course at Northwestern. Camp out in front of his house. Spread your wings and gain your true potential under the tutelage of one who "almost certainly knows far far far more than Turd will ever know due to his position in the financial hierarchy".

    Stop letting this nuisance of a blog and its sheep denizens be an albatross around your neck.

    ReplyDelete
  76. @ Ben bernanke
    So when are you going to txt me a picture of you & Tim? A beat down in the morning. Wow. Shocking prediction.
    What would shock me now would be a small market rally here.either way, beat down commences this week. 401k holders will be screaming bloody murder...but wait, Jaimie said we fixed everything!

    ReplyDelete
  77. Dude that sun explosion is serious shit, some would equate that with a very large earth quake on earth very soon. That was incredible.
    --------------------------------------------
    FEMA did their National Level Exercises May 16-21.

    And the exercises were for "an earthquake in the New Madrid fault".

    Looks like the sun stuff will be blamed for the earthquake.

    The New Madrid earthquake is suppose to be a 10. They are wanting severe destruction. FEMA has ordered food for 14million and underwater body bags.

    Check out info on youtube about where people are already warning about the earthquake coming.

    ReplyDelete
  78. And also......the market has made it's final high already on May 2.

    It will be going down from here and you will see support after support broken.

    SPXU AND SDS .....buy.

    ReplyDelete
  79. @ Cookie Monster June 7, 2011 7:15 PM , superb our kid, great stuff, just started my day with a loud garumph from your comments. BRAVO

    Good luck all today............

    ReplyDelete
  80. Hmmm - on this blog we talk about the gold and silver markets, but now we seem to be talking about the people who talk about the gold and silver markets, and now some seem to be talking about the people who talk about the people who talk about the gold and silver markets - is this like derivatives?? Weapons of mass discussion destruction?

    ReplyDelete
  81. Let's talk about rainbows, i hate those friggin things!!

    ReplyDelete
  82. I just listened to Rickards' interview from the weekend. I know there's disagreement about his view that the banks will be the buyers of bonds going forward, but his comment that the Fed doesn't mind a slowly rising price of gold (as it helps to slowly kill the dollar) was noteworthy.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Starting to think M.O.P.E and the "Truth" might be screwed!!!

    ReplyDelete
  84. Silver should pick a direction soon. If I had my Bollinger bands turned on I'd expect to see a volatility squeeze setting up on the hourly chart?

    I love listening to what the Asians and Europeans say about the US in the overnight session - nothing like what you hear MSM in the US. I think most Americans are just too stubborn to accept the truth even when its staring them in the face.

    Old Ben sure was the butt of some good slams on here earlier - still laughing my azz off! Some of you guys here are freaking hilarious!

    ReplyDelete
  85. @TPM


    RE: How Sun Spots/CME's Effect the Earth - Theoretically

    Magnetic field lines on the sun are twisted and distorted because the sun is composed of liquified gas. The suns equatorial regions and poles spin at different speeds causing a folding or twisting of the pole to pole magnetic field lines that regularly corrects with small events.

    visual of twisted field

    The huge Coronal mass ejection posted is a visible outward sign of magnetic field lines being stretched beyond there limit and then 'snapping back'. The snapping back is actually a letting go and then re-aquiring of the field which is what you are observing on the link Leonard posted.

    The magnetic fields of Sun and Earth and all massive planetary bodies oscillate - they are not fixed. These magnetic fields will naturally seek harmony when they are within each others sphere of influence. It's safe to say that the Earth is very much within this sphere of influence as the magnetic force is many MANY orders of magnitude stronger than gravity. (1039 orders of magnitude)

    This particularly spectacular example of magnetic field snapping like a rubber band - puking up several Earth masses of matter - creates a dissonant magnetic frequency that sympathetically has the same effect upon the earths magnetic field. This influence is unavoidable as the Sun is 333,000 times the mass of the earth.

    In theory the dissonance is NOT resolved immediately but instead the two massive bodies 'fight each other' (If you've ever tuned a guitar you know what I mean) and set up a standing wave or throbbing crescendos of dissonance / non dissonance "wah wah WAH WAH wah wah" this will go on for several days or longer until the smaller body re-aligns in frequency with the bigger body.

    The rising and falling mechanical resonance will theoretically stress the Earths structure significantly.

    I of course don't know what will happen after that huge CME/Sunspot but in my mind seismic activity could easily be triggered by an event of significant magnitude occurring 93 million miles away on the Sun.

    This will be both interesting and tragic if it does turn out to be such a significant event.

    Pretty spooky what you said about FEMA above.

    ReplyDelete
  86. @all, man it's SO confusing to skip the first 200 comments. I'd ask WTF started it, but I am certain I don't want to know.

    Antrobus said...
    "...seem to be talking about the people who talk about the people who talk about the gold and silver markets - is this like derivatives?? Weapons of mass discussion destruction?"

    I just woke my wife up laughing so damn loud! Oh, can I say "damn" here?

    - Jim M.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Reg global warming, I once read the cause: "it's the sun, stupid." It was in the NY Times, so it HAS to be true.

    Ok, that was a joke. I know with the mood here tonight, I gotta make that clear.

    - Jim M.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hey Jim

    I hear ya man - had to skip over all the name calling and post about sun spots and earth quakes stuff. But I'll shut up and just try and learn something for awhile lurking and eves dropping.

    ReplyDelete
  89. OK, my devil's advocate side is coming out. Some of you will call it my "sh1t stirring side..."

    Let's say KD is who he says he is... former banker/trader making lots of coin that feels a narcissistic pity on us sheeple ("Pity the fools," he say!).

    I have to say, he's right in line with what I'd expect. I mean, do any of us really think ANY trader making coin in NYC believes he's not the world's end and we're just the dumb peasants? That Todd dude at Minyanville is about the only one I can think of.

    OK, one question for Mr. Smarty Pants: if you don't believe big players are manipulating the price of silver lower, exactly how do you explain the MASSIVE selling volume 2-10X greater than any amount in the day pushing the price down in 1-5 minutes during the thinnest trading times?

    I may not be a super-elite, super hero NYC trader, but even I know if I don't spread my bazillion contract sales out or at least sell during heavy volume periods, I'm gonna get a far worse price for my silver.

    So, WTF would "they" do that for? Only logical and sane reason is price down is the goal, perhaps with a much larger position profiting from the price drop.

    Maybe not "rigged" in the purest sense of the word, but it's f*cking not a true price discovery and done for ONE group's benefit.

    So that IS manipulation.

    OK, super elite crime-refuting trader stud boy... address why YOU would do that...

    Oh, and "because I can" does not qualify as a stud hero trader's quality reply.

    - Jim M.

    P.S. - KD, explain this to me: is it market manipulation or rigging if I lease tankers to hold oil to create an artificial shortage to drive the price up?

    - jam

    ReplyDelete
  90. For once, the sun thing MIGHT affect price of silver (and everything else), if in fact it does in the end cause earthquakes and other major disasters (I hope it doesnt), and we all know what happens to good ol' PM when major disasters strike

    HINT: Inject liquidity to the system to rebuild and econ damage control.

    ReplyDelete
  91. erm.... takedown.... ( I dont want to wake anyone!)

    ReplyDelete
  92. Knew that was in the works - sh*t

    I suppose as long as 36-36.20 holds It should recover (1532~ Gold)

    ReplyDelete
  93. Notice london market just opened and look out below ...T I M B E R !!!

    ReplyDelete
  94. 10Y-30Y bond auction ahead so expect weakness.

    ReplyDelete
  95. @Rui got a link you can share regarding that?

    w/v xesse
    xesse market meddling pisses me off - oh yeah that one was easy!

    ReplyDelete
  96. I closed out my Comex gold position literally 2 seconds before that spike down. Maybe it will turn out to be a bad decision, but I don't think I want to be in this market right now.

    I really hate having NO long position in the PMs, but I need to get an idea of where this market is heading before I get back in. I don't have a good feel for the market's short term direction.

    One thing I have been using as an indicator recently is platinum and palladium. They have really made some good gains and (like gold) have held up when silver has gotten taken to the woodshed. Even now, they're still holding up pretty well. So based on this, maybe any correction in gold will be mild. I cannot speak for silver -- I have not traded it since May 1st (I've only bought the physical).

    ReplyDelete
  97. I'm out of this market since yesterday, sold AGQ around 192, which was during the first real downspike at around 37.20-30. Greatly appreciate the cautionary notes here.

    We might bounce, but I dislike hanging on to a loss or seeing profits dissipate just on the hope that we might bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  98. s & p down below pivot point of 1283.75. would have to close below that tomorrow to keep going down, but at this rate only a miracle could rally the markets.
    silver is tricky, but lately has been going down w/ the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  99. blehh... dont like this...

    last time my stomach felt like this, was at 35.30 last week and it turned out that was a time to buy...

    not so sure today...

    ReplyDelete
  100. Overnight session didn't do much buying. That's usually a bad harbinger of what the US session will bring. Doesn't mean there won't be opportunities to buy, but they've got to be treated as day trades...you've got to get out of them when nearing overhead resistance (after they turn profitable), risky assumption that we'll break through that resistance.

    This won't change until lower highs/lower lows cycle is broken.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Thanks Pailin..

    FYI, That trade I had yesterday at 36.68, I set a stop last night of 36.85 and that got triggered.. so made a little, had a bigger position from the other day at 36.40 which closed at 36.90 with some green too.

    Set a small buy at 36.60 yesterday, that got triggered too, so we'll see how that pans out.

    Larger longer positions are still open average is now 37.60.. should have closed the lot yesterday at 37.20 with a loss.. but thats hind sight for ya..

    ReplyDelete
  102. @NCOT
    I would think we'll re-test 37 sometime today, not feeling that we'll break through though. Looks like those stops are working for you, instead of taking losses, you're taking smaller gains, but still gains.

    There may be a good fast day trade buy before that oil figure at 10:30 am ET, but be very careful, the volatility will be a lot of higher and could turn red really fast, especially if stops get blown on the way down. If you play it, you'd want a stop just under whatever previous resisance was set on a 15min or 1hr chart and know you're equally likely to take a hit as score.

    ReplyDelete
  103. I wonder how confident Level Headed will be today..?

    ReplyDelete
  104. @NCOT
    Hard to say. It depends on the chart being used for that TA, which still hasn't been disclosed. I'm really bullish on the 3yr chart...it's the daily and weekly that cause me concern :)

    Speaking of which, gold looks really crappy right now on the 1hr, hanging by a thread over a chasm to 1525 support. A bounce off that would be good, a solid break through would be bad. Also, gold needs to get a close above 1550 soon or that upside window will close...in the short term :)

    ReplyDelete
  105. @Pailin,

    I really dont want to touch my Junior
    stocks. They are based in the Yukon and should
    be due to have first drill results in a few weeks. I actually doubt a stock market collapse
    here and now because pessimism is so high. Have
    also stopped PM trading as I have lost my 'feel'. However, am uncertain about equities
    and thinking about putting on some short etf's to protect miners. A double short general mkt
    etf and perhaps short copper etf would seemingly fit the bill. Would you agree ?

    ReplyDelete
  106. @harfwit
    In theory I agree. But understand that I don't play the miners at all and haven't played equities since October 15, 2010. In uncertain times where loss prevention is more important than gains, a hedge strategy is the way to go. Just make sure you really feel that way, because you will be red on one side while green on the other and depending on your weighting (probably lighter on the shorts?) it may end up being a case of merely "losing less". But you'll keep your position, in the miners, which is a Livermore classic of being right and staying right. I do hope you're right on the miners. My avoidance reasons are the same as have been stated by others here - all the risks of metal volatility combined with equity risk. A little too much for me.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Thanks Pailin,

    I landed a few 2 and 3 baggers last year and have really spent a hell of a lot of time in research. I've also witnessed a lot of 5 and 10 baggers, some of which were at least partly predictable (in hindsight) There are around 3500 juniors on the cve, and I only really like half a dozen or so that I've found time to get really acquainted with. I also like the CAD, although typically the GBP has been firm against it of late, so not picked up any loose change that way. The problem is that these stocks are very fickle, and unless several ducks all line up, nothing good happens.
    Think I might go double short FTSE right now just taking a small dose, then add increments. Short copper would probably start to fly if a stocks waterfall takes place, which isnt happening just yet.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Gotta run out and do some stuff, put a XAG buy in for 1526. Small order, just looking for a day flip to 1535-40.

    ReplyDelete
  109. man this is ugly looking..

    no rises or bounces...

    I cant see volumes... anyone got any clue to the volumes?

    ReplyDelete
  110. just me then so far...

    I'm keeping my bull hat on...

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/11145928/3/the-silver-etf-a-surprising-turn.html

    ReplyDelete
  111. Nice summer bargains coming up in the metals camp. Sweet if your a buyer like me, and when Benron fires up the presses I will be holding strong. For now I make it on the downside and flip it into real money.

    ReplyDelete
  112. I expect all, broad market weakness globally now to resolve itself in a weaker dollar and stronger gold. Timeframes for these downdrafts, in which everything goes down, and then for the resolution--gold up and dollar down--are going to be around 24-72 hours. That's the pattern I see forming and it roughly started 3+ weeks ago. Think of it as a ratchet.

    Yes, my ratchet will be rough going for periods up to 72 hours, but look at how much has been accomplished already in GOLD/SPX. Same with the dollar.

    By the end of this week, I could see Friday closes of Gold 1550, SPX 1250, and USDX of 73.20

    G

    ReplyDelete
  113. Shorts carrying the day thus far. Not exactly a fine how-do-you-do for my favorite guy. Corn still looking good though (oops! maybe I shouldn't alert the shorts!)

    Latest from the farm: dry weather may mean the Scottish Highland steer may have to be finished off with corn instead of grass before he's finished off--not sure his healthy appetite will affect the July contract, but here's hoping. In the interim, I intend to keep upwind...

    ReplyDelete
  114. Anyone know whats going on today? Hardly anyone seems to want to buy but everyone sells. I don't get it :(
    I need 37,8 to break even

    ReplyDelete
  115. http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm

    DOW Futures -127

    ReplyDelete
  116. Mikael, I'm in a similar boat to you...

    The one reassuring thing is that this drop is market wide on most things..

    I'm not happy about the drop, but I'd be more worried if it was only happening to Silver which we've seen in the past..

    Stay strong ...

    I'm looking for a point to try and average down.. but would need to risk a large amount to get it to around 36.50 and I'm not prepared to risk it right now..

    Word Veri: DISTA "is DISTA dip to buy?"

    ReplyDelete
  117. @Shill
    The question is during market day, does Dow sub-12k induce buying or more selling. I'm leaning towards more selling. There may not be a ton of sellers right now (across the board, all markets) but there are even less buyers.

    I'm watching gold carefully, it's holding up much better than most everything else and is definitely a good long term play too. Getting caught in it is not the worst thing on a downdraft as long as one isn't over-margined to the point of losing the position. That's paper. I'm buying physical at every 5% haircut off the all-time USD high. I'm way too light and should have been buying all last year instead of playing paper so much.

    I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for a visit to 1300s again (briefly) before gold starts another really strong leg up to 2000+.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Benny's speech/news conference. The perception is that QE will end and the U.S. will adopt austerity. Bad for stocks, pm, almost everything. By the time Benny announces the next QE, everything will be cheaper. (Maybe lots cheaper.) This all happened last summer too, which lead to Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech and QEII. Hang on to your cash and wait for the dust to settle.

    ReplyDelete
  119. I've said it before.. I'm purely paper right now, but with my (eventual) profits (I hope) I'm buying physical..

    When I buy my first bit of Physical, I'm posting it on here!

    ReplyDelete
  120. Yep, looks like a serious down day. I keep thinking about playing ZSL, but I'm more comfortable with BTFEER (Buy the F'ing EE Raid), after a huge waterfall there's usually some bounceback, like yesterday, get in, get out. But if it's just a steady grind downward I'll just sit and watch my core position lose value...sigh.

    I don't think we are going to bottom anytime soon, I'm thinking the 30-33 range, but I'll stay small until there's a confirmed bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  121. @NCOT
    Is your fiscal situation so dire that you couldn't swing picking up a few rounds or a 10oz bar each month? It's a general thesis around here that at some point, sooner than later, that will not be as easy as it is now - for reasons of shortage/hoarding or premium spread or both.

    And there's another danger.

    The problem with playing long paper to turn into long physical is that when you cash the paper out you've done so at what you feel like is a high and now you're now buying even higher priced physical (with premium, taxes, shipping, whatever). Then it tanks (ala May 1) and you've not gained much, lost or at least have to wait a while for spot to catch back up with your cost. It takes exceptional discipline to sell paper high, wait for deep dip THEN buy physical. Trust me - been there, done that, but have no problems with the bars I bought in the high 30s and 40s the last several months. I feel covered in every dimension, but of course not enough. That's why I'm still playing and all that.

    It's better to do both in tandem, at whatever level you can afford so you won't be left out in the cold altogether.

    ReplyDelete
  122. @Pailin,

    Sure, I could by a few ozs today, but the plan was to make on paper to the high and then buy phys on the drop..

    That was the plan... til I realised I'm crap at the paper game!

    ReplyDelete
  123. @Pailin,

    You are correct in that his paper price appreciates at the same rate as physical so he's not really ahead by waiting. If anything, premiums on physical may go up, costing even more although the one way, albeit dangerous way, to get ahead, is to use margin effectively so as a $1 price gain on 2,000 oz gives a $2 gain if one is buying 1,000 oz.

    Otherwise, my suggestion is to buy physical in increments over time, regardless of price although time is running shorter and shorter.

    ReplyDelete
  124. NCOT, where are you living? UK?

    ReplyDelete
  125. @NCOT

    It's pretty straightforward to make a few bucks in paper during a bull run, the market tends to be forgiving if you buy a little too high, it will catch up to you. In a choppy market, or one that is trending down, IMHO you have to be careful about entry and exit points, and have much lower expectations about your gains... lock in small gains before the market turns on you.

    I don't know if I'll be any good at trading in this kind of market, but I will "watch the tape and set close stops".

    ReplyDelete
  126. Mornin'. Fugly one, but meh...

    POSX catchin' a major bid, sheds some light on PM's...

    ReplyDelete
  127. China warns US debt-default idea is "playing with fire"

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/idINIndia-57573120110608?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+Business+News%29

    ReplyDelete
  128. Yes, I think brief visits to the 1300's and low
    30's are spot on too, but conditional on a biggish
    stock slide which isnt in the bag yet. TPTB may be buying stocks with both hands soon and that c ould be followed with a rally
    in everything. A QE2 end crash doesnt quite gel
    with me though - much too predictable on the one
    hand and on the other it makes something of a mockery of all that has gone before. Am buying
    some crash protection just in case, as Pailin
    says, preservation of capital outweighs search
    for profit when uncertainty all around us.

    ReplyDelete
  129. @e736.. yes, London based

    @Kiwi, thanks, I'm getting better at setting points, I did last night and this morning and banked some profit. I'm also getting better at taking losses,

    I just need to improve my prediction skills! I thought 36.60 was a good re entry point based on yesterdays action....

    ReplyDelete
  130. Atlee called it, overnight raid.

    Just a balls out display of in your face criminality.

    ReplyDelete
  131. @NCOT
    I'm all for playing paper, you guys should know that by now. But the biggest (by far) danger of paper is that it keeps your brain dollar-centric (or GBP or whatever). Physical isn't the same, it's heft-centric :)

    So when the chips are down, the paper "losses" rot your brain because they're denominated in the same form as your bills and vacation with wifey. Then the nagging begins and the doubt creeps in. That's just the way it works, because of the denomination. And paper is easier to trade in and out of. That's actually a detriment on the downside, too easy to book losses. Physical requires calling a vendor, listing on eBay/Craiglist, driving to a bullion store, etc. All effort, at least more than clicking "market order". Those are the two big negatives to paper vs. physical.

    Example. High in 2008 was $22. Low was $9. Anybody on paper $22 got most likely wiped out and/or was scared to BTFD anywhere under $15 (a 33% discount from high). Yet today, we would all LOVE to get silver, paper or phys for $22, right? So keeing it in context, I'm pretty sure a lot less physical was dumped onto the market at those lower numbers than paper was. Same as where we're at right now. How different would you feel about paper silver vs physical silver at your cost basis right now, but if spot is down around 25? For paper, would you even still be in the game? Please take some time to think about this.

    ReplyDelete
  132. @Pailin, that's a very astute observation. You are exactly right reg. holding through dips phyz vs. paper.

    - Jim M.

    ReplyDelete
  133. The Great Panther Silver Summer Giveaway.

    http://www.tfnn.com/summer-silver-giveaway.php?carousel

    Just found this...maybe some of us Turdites can win some silver this summer from Great Panther.

    Looks like you just enter your name, number, and email each day and they have a drawing. Winner gets a Great Panther 1oz round.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Sorry but I totally disagree that the paper price doesn't matter when it comes to physical silver. I hold physical silver and I agree it's easy to hold onto it during down drafts, but that doesn't change the fact that it's less valuable when the paper price goes down. Until you can buy groceries denominated in fixed ounces of silver, until you can pay your mortgage or rent with a fixed amount of silver, until you can live thinking only in terms of silver, the paper price matters.

    To me it does anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Good morning guys

    @ewc58 thanks man.

    I really think that until the market begins trending, most people should not trade the paper market. If you absolutely have to, then consider using it to hedge your long physical ie buy puts, write calls, short agq or buy zsl on rallies. Especially over the summer. Stay out of the long side of paper. Buy physical and trade from the short side.

    The short side of the paper mkt is really more fun than the long side. Until we crested at 49, I only traded from the long side. Since then, it has become a trading affair and more money is being made quicker on the short side.
    GTLA

    ReplyDelete
  136. @Pailin, thanks for the time to write that..

    Really appreciated. Seriously, I've said it before and say it again, the people are here are great. Everyone's been so helpful.

    Any other board you get flamed for being paper!

    I got wiped out 31-26 in Jan Feb.. was so scared of getting back in, I missed the rise to about 36, then from 36 to 50 made some money, but then got semi wiped out on May 1st.

    The irony is that if I'd left my original trades run in Jan and topped up the leverage, I'd be in big profit now! I just keep chasing the profits which turn out to be losses.

    I'm def going more longer term on the bigger drops. Also, since Jan, I've learn't a lot more about silver and trading and trying to understand charts more, but tbh, all I see from charts is that it depends how you look it with time frames and reference points..

    Anyway, thanks again to you and everyone else for their help and advice.

    (if anyone else feels like handing me a 'dead cert' bet, then please feel free!)

    ReplyDelete
  137. @Jim
    Thanks. My argument was a revelation to me several months ago, when I was on the wrong side of exactly that scenario. It came from a discussion with my father, nobody is more anti-gold/silver than he. I realized as he beat me up over losing so much trading in January, that I wouldn't give a whit if I had those ounces of gold instead of paper losses in XAU. Here we are +200 later on gold, the paper losses are locked in and I am working on the ounces but at a higher price. Dumb.

    Stepping away now to go out for a 5 mile run, too much PC time lately when it's nice out.

    ReplyDelete
  138. I bought most of my physical gold and silver much lower, but I just hold and don't worry about the fluctuations much. It really is disheartening to go to sleep and wake up in a hole before you get out of bed, but that is the way this damn market is right now.

    ReplyDelete
  139. hmmm...any thoughts on how much further this $ can rally? it's struggling @74.25

    ReplyDelete
  140. @Cookie, you scared the crap out of me, I was wondering if I had my eye of the ball and when it hit 74.25!!

    ReplyDelete
  141. so i guess nothing but down from here? =/ till qe3 announcement in august/september--> 2012 WTFKs

    ReplyDelete
  142. I appreciate the sage advice on this board and the recommendations leading to other solid blogs and stories.

    Interesting: I made a cursory review of headlines on CNBC... they are actually starting to sound bearish, yet at least one paid hack still recommends stocks over the next two months...

    I'm expecting a general market crash to pull silver down with it, temporarily.
    Question for all: How far out of the money should one buy protective puts in any of the usual instruments?

    Word Ver: aution... I plan to trade with caution.

    ReplyDelete
  143. OPEC meeting breakdown, CNBS are reporting.

    No decision reached

    ReplyDelete
  144. Good morning level..

    Trust you to come in and silver goes up 40c!

    I'm interested in your thoughts for today..

    I hope you're still confident.. we need some positive vibes on here!

    I'm concerned that DR Jerome is right (along with other people) and that Silver is getting dragged down with the indices..

    ReplyDelete
  145. So crude caught some hot air, other commodities PMs followed. Whats up with this? Any news?

    ReplyDelete
  146. oh that is good news about OPEC = higher oil

    ReplyDelete
  147. @jimmy, wow, been so busy typing I missed that !!

    Damn... could have made some dough!

    ReplyDelete
  148. Iran, Algeria and Venezuala are not agreeing to increase output

    ReplyDelete
  149. Tremendous action huh guys? Tree shaking. Any nuts fall out?

    ReplyDelete
  150. JEESH I just popped $5k in like 5 minutes

    ReplyDelete
  151. Hmmmm...That was interesting. Looks like everybody is on one side of the boat...

    ReplyDelete
  152. LH, you still think silver is headed +30 in the near term?

    ReplyDelete
  153. @Kurt, define popped?

    If you made 5k I'm jealous,

    If you lost it, it makes me feel better!

    ReplyDelete
  154. Good Morning all =b

    Friggin Banker raids SUCK dog doo doo.
    Looking pretty bouncy for the moment...
    Thinking 'Somebody Buy Buy Buy" but imagine some are prob selling the little rally right here =[

    I'm glad my cost basis is so low - but have a feeling I won't be bragging about that much longer if EE keeps wizzin in my corn flakes every morning / night like this. Just once I'd like to wiz all over their cornflakes...

    arrrgh!

    w/v parablene
    para blene a lot of profit margin today

    ReplyDelete
  155. @Pailin

    You make excellent points about the psychology of paper vs. physical. I trade paper to get out of a large debt, I could trade anything but silver is a "simpler" play than equities, and the volatility can make for quick gains. Or losses, and that's why I'm commited to using stops from now on.

    Looks like silver has broken down out of the penant, but I'll wait for some TA wonk to say for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  156. @Level, no the exact opposite..

    nuts firmly retracted!!

    @Flaunt.. its still +30....

    ReplyDelete
  157. In a european perspective, starting from last august 2010 gold for an euro-portfolio performance was quite low considering the exchange rate.

    E.g. gold aug10 1330$ to max apr11 1580$ is about +19%, applying the exchange rate from 1,29 to 1,5 of the same periods you reduce the performance to +2%
    Silver performed better: from 20$ to 50 peak in 2011 is +150% then applying the rate it is reduced to +115%. It is good the same!

    But the real gain on silver it was on the leveraged etf, because consering the inverted correlation between PMs and $ it allowed to 2X the rise of the metal compared to 1X of the cha movement of the exchange rate. So for an european it was the best instrument even if risky. In the same period it performed about +400% from 20€ to 100€.

    Now, talking about risk, supposed that we r all people that follow PM since at least 1/2 years our view is long term, the reason to choice ETF paper or leveraged is only to fight your mind against higher volatility, because in a long term rise trend of PMs the only risk I see on leveraged is in case of Comex default, where the leveraged instrument will be cash settled (is written on the contract clauses). And the ETF physical with underlying physical guaranteet (written on the paper) should spyke on the moon. But you really believe that in case of silver comex default the ETF protects you?....i don't believe. In the majority of ETFs the TBTF are involved as custodians...what kind of guarantee they could give?

    Between Paper ETF and leveraged I prefer leveraged as I don't believe the first give any additional guarantee, adding that the leveraged in an up trend it performs better for the $ exchange rate. (of course in the low trend you are kicked out...)

    But real physical remain the best opportunity for the fucking future, it is real money, is out of the shitty monetary system. Its real value is exponentially higher than the actual and predicted price because in a monetary system collapse you will own something others will not have.

    About mining stocks they are really very volatile and risky, many of them in a bull market will perform much more than PMs and also leverage but it's a bet to choice the best and you can't buy all. For sure if you are a mine investor you must to diversify in many countries, avoid US. In a moneary system collapse scenario the country risk is very high, for confiscation, taxes etc as seen recently in Bolivia, Peru were only newspaper rumors made fall some big caps more than 10% in a day!
    Another issue is that many of the junior-medium stocks are in gain only from this year! with gold at 1300 they were in red in the past!! Are they really profitable in a volatile trend market???
    And what about that many of them are also manipulated and shorted? what are you buying? Consider them of course speculative and risky similar to a leveraged ETF, maybe safer only in case of comex slv default, less in case of monetary system default, they will be probably confiscated such as the physical.

    At the end I prefer buy physical and some few junior miners, hoping they will do the jump of the 80', but they could also be loss of money.

    bye all

    ReplyDelete
  158. OK, read back my earlier post about having a feeling in my gut and thats the point to buy...

    That was when silver was at 36.30.... now 36.70...

    Following my gut from now..

    ReplyDelete
  159. @flaunt
    I do. Busy trading. Back in a sec

    ReplyDelete
  160. Enjoy the rise before the EE slap!!!

    ReplyDelete
  161. Look at WTI gooooooooooo

    Long term long on that finally looking better!

    w/v - FLATENT - The markets have flatent manipuflation

    ReplyDelete
  162. Just announced is that the OPEC meeting in Vienna just broke up with no decision, other than a decision to disagree. No production increases . Apparently some of the OPEC ministers rushed out of the meeting, jumped in cars and sped off according to CNBC reporters just now.
    Crude oil futures have rallied. US$ now also on the day's high.

    ReplyDelete
  163. @ NCOT = I made $5k but also realize I woke up this morning DOWN $10k from last night. Futures are like that:

    $1 in price of oil = $1,000
    $1 in gold = $100
    $1 in silver = $5,000

    ReplyDelete
  164. What leverage you guys using?

    ReplyDelete
  165. In terms of salary, how much physical metal is enough (or bare minimum). 6months, 1 year, 2 year Salary etc.

    Was in Chengdu China last week. They block all the blogs in China so I couldn't read Turd's website. Looking forward to the new website.

    Thanks

    Patrick

    ReplyDelete
  166. @NCOT
    I think that spread betting is debilitating
    in the psycological sense, because instead of
    looking at least at a residual credit balance in
    the case of a falling stock, with SB all you see
    is the actual loss. This is only suitable for
    very seasoned traders with nerves of steel, or
    perhaps to use once in a blue moon to smash the
    ball out of the stadium when that very special opportunity presents itself. SB scares the hell out of me, (and I live or die juniors) so I have to admire you for persevering with it & wish you the very best. I guess that you get more and more battle hardened as time goes on ?

    ReplyDelete
  167. UBT equels payday.

    Silver catching a nice bid here.

    ReplyDelete
  168. bearish engulfing pattern on the POSX daily. rally ain't gonna last...

    ReplyDelete
  169. ok well I am out of paper... saved $600 out of my original 8K put in before May 1st.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Anybody have a down side target for the SP500... like a retest of 1248-50 maybe? Was expecting a capitulation gap to downside this morning...
    oop never mind there it goes =[

    ReplyDelete
  171. This market is really taking the fun out of the vacation. Nonetheless, off to the beach. Let the EE do what they will do today.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Greek banks under siege -

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/08/greek-banks-under-siege/?iid=HP_LN

    ReplyDelete
  173. @Kurt - well done, or not.. not sure!

    I like to refer to it as making up loses, positive spin on negative.

    @harfwit, yeah spread drive you nuts... two ways to make it work,

    1, boat loads of money for leverage and go long term, averaging up or down .
    2, quick in and out. My first silver trades made me £300 in 30 mins using all of £50 in leverage... Should have stayed that way!!

    I'm being more and more strict with myself!

    ReplyDelete
  174. what do you think about shorting SPX now?

    ReplyDelete
  175. Just have a look at this David Banister report where he is talking of a truncated top in gold at 1551.

    http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/gold-could-top-sooner-than-later-and-fool-some-bulls/

    BTW is it possible that silver and gold might correct following the Armstrong turn date next week.

    ReplyDelete
  176. When I look at the three massive manuscript volumes which contain our work for the year 1894, I confess that it is very difficult for me, out of such a wealth of material, to select the cases which are most interesting in themselves, and at the same time most conducive to a display of those peculiar powers for which my friend was famous. As I turn over the pages, I see my notes upon the repulsive story of the red leech and the terrible death of Crosby, the banker. Here also I find an account of the Addleton tragedy, and the singular contents of the ancient British barrow. The famous Smith-Mortimer succession case comes also within this period, and so does the tracking and arrest of Huret, the Boulevard assassin -- an exploit which won for Holmes an autograph letter of thanks from the French President and the Order of the Legion of Honour. Each of these would furnish a narrative, but on the whole I am of opinion that none of them unites so many singular points of interest as the episode of Yoxley Old Place, which includes not only the lamentable death of young Willoughby Smith, but also those subsequent developments which threw so curious a light upon the causes of the crime.
    kenmare hoteltoronto stone veneers

    ReplyDelete
  177. We were alone in dark so thick it stopped up my nose. Caleb was right. This was a bad place. I wouldn't last a day. And worse, when Ma found my lifeless body, she'd know I was a liar.

    I was about to sink into despair, but Frank distracted me with more twitching.
    charmsred pine oil

    ReplyDelete
  178. Mr Hague said he had been struck by the potential for Burma if the reform trend continued.
    "This is a very exciting time because there is a chance that what she [Aung San Suu Kyi] and her colleagues have hoped and longed for for so long will actually take place in this country," he said.

    Aung San Suu Kyi said she trusted the Burmese president
    personal loansinstallazione impianti fotovoltaici

    ReplyDelete
  179. Isuzu AC Compressor

    document management systemsDon't think the FED would act against the interest of its owners?

    Maybe the other interests/owners in the FED aren't necessarily concerned about the outcome JPMs stake - like they might benefit if JPM eats it?

    Just an errant thought

    ReplyDelete