tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post3666357579279427620..comments2024-02-23T05:16:46.265-05:00Comments on Along The Watchtower: Having A Good Day?Turd Fergusonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comBlogger196125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-28883883620410644452011-03-02T09:52:53.731-05:002011-03-02T09:52:53.731-05:00I hope the new website will have a section/forum f...I hope the new website will have a section/forum for what I would call the "day traders" here vs. the "long term until the fundamentals change" people.<br /><br />Yes, there is overlap between the two camps, but if you bought a stock like GPL yesterday and got out yesterday for a 5% gain, your goals are much different than mine. I'm up more than 70% on GPL, but I'm just not going to worry about the day to day other than to watch for more buying opportunities.<br /><br />I'm with Dr. Jerome on this one... if you are "fearing" daily EE attacks vs. "embracing" them, you probably need to settle down a bit.<br /><br />I think the height of paranoia (and page hits) was last week... a time when Turd said, "F it, I bought the dip." So did I. <br /><br />I'm still scanning everyones comments because there are still nuggets in there, but if you are a "nervous nelly," just read Turd's posts and updates... the rest is largely noise (and I don't mean that as a total negative on the "noise," but fear/panic breeds more fear/panic.<br /><br />No one can show us a single, long term fundamental that would indicate a reversal of current trends in commodities in general and PMs specifically... here's a short list that I tick through every day:<br /><br />1) our Federal fiscal problems. Deficit Panel spoke, everyone ran. Until the types of change they recommended are embraced and implemented, we are on a "path of doom" and more QE.<br />2) our State and municipal fiscal problems. See WI. People are not "embracing/implementing" as stated in #1.<br />3) world fiscal problems. Enough said.<br />4) scarcity of resources... again, the commodities... things that "come out of the ground" from food, to energy, to metals...<br />5) geopolitical instability due to all of the above plus other things like cultural/religious differences/lack of reconcilliation.<br /><br />Until even just ONE of those things change in a MEANINGFUL way, I'm long gold and silver (physical and miners) and playing with other commodities. This is all seperate from being prepared for really bad times.<br /><br />So, the "day to day" is noise other than accumulating, adjust stops, rolling things over... but all the "what will EE do today!?!?!?!?!" or "what is being reported today"... all noise, except for the buying opportunities they provide.<br /><br />If one truly believes in the kinds of things I said above (and I think Turd largely, if not completely, does), one would have had NO problem pulling the trigger last week and dumping a bunch of cash (or at least a good chunk of ones available cash) into physical and paper as appropriate. If you didn't take that opportunity, you probably need to re-evaluate what you THINK your goals are and what your risk tolerance is... there were a LOT of people last week that said they didn't care if "silver drops to $20, I'll buy more!" but I don't know how many of them bought when it fell a buck seventy-five when they had the chance.<br /><br />Hang in there everybody, NOTHING has changed and QE3 is being telegraphed more and more EVERY day in spite of all the rhetoric to "scaling back" or "ending." Remember, even "scaling back" means "more." That or we'll just give it a new name again... "QE," "monetizing debt"... whatever.<br /><br />Actually, my only "irrational fear" would be this: The Fed hasn't actually "printed" money, just "added zeroes." So, what keeps them from "removing zeroes" or, more likely, deciding to target an asset clase and taking it down to the tune of roughly $1T? Might be hard to do now with PMs, but look out markets... at some point, the Fed will need to "destroy" about $1T of "money" somehow.Fortinbrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15205543663947112302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-42218724935938624332011-03-02T09:35:49.066-05:002011-03-02T09:35:49.066-05:00Hey Turd! Corn is King!
CORN ETF is what I play in...Hey Turd! Corn is King!<br />CORN ETF is what I play in addition to PM's, miners etc. CORN will break your heart in a New York minute. That is because ADM and Cargill can drop the market on any given day and minute because they have to take delivery to run their HFC syrup and ethanol plants. 40% of the corn crop is used as ethanol feedstock.<br /><br />RE weather conditions: Corn supply is inversely proportional to prior winter snowfall. Snowfall records this winter will cause spring flooding and dalayed planting. That reduces yield. Lately midwest summers are extreme, either constant rain and tornados, or drought. Both are bad. Follow simple logic to make your own prediction about future prices.<br /><br />Read this article about land prices for corn ground in Iowa (where I grew up).<br />Iowa land prices on a rocket ride <br />http://www.globegazette.com/news/local/article_07c71e98-3bfd-11e0-9a68-001cc4c002e0.html<br /><br />Here is Iowa land price survey database up to 2010:<br />http://www.extension.iastate.edu/publications/fm1825.pdf<br /><br />Buying arable land could save your family when TSHTF. Buffett also recommended it just this morning. LOL<br /><br />Anybody who wants to join up with me to make a sustainable refuge from the coming sh!tstorm, just let me know. I am not trying to make money off of anyone. I just want to have my lifeboat ready and plenty of good peeps rowing with me.<br /><br />Pat Hoekstra, PMP (specialty, EPC Projects)Black Hawkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04095784124116932452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-63224498659191371022011-03-02T09:32:33.700-05:002011-03-02T09:32:33.700-05:00new threadnew threadTurd Fergusonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-88333890442524030892011-03-02T09:31:46.694-05:002011-03-02T09:31:46.694-05:00that's good advice myth. If the non-producers ...that's good advice myth. If the non-producers do get attacked, great if one could get out & get back in after the shake out. Downside is, as George postulates above, one sells only to see much more upside. Anyways, glad to be having the discussion.caramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-65202033556957111882011-03-02T09:30:35.271-05:002011-03-02T09:30:35.271-05:00word verification was "binge" lol
Yes, ...word verification was "binge" lol<br /><br />Yes, Eric The Red has flair. But never really been one that's big on stagenames of any sort. Just kind of like just being myself. I could go either way I guess.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-10272822326322918582011-03-02T09:28:38.067-05:002011-03-02T09:28:38.067-05:00OK, well I'd have to try to figure out how. Ju...OK, well I'd have to try to figure out how. Just using my gmail so if you can guide me along on how to do that I'd give it a whack. Then I'd need to decide if it's a real picture or if it's some cartoon or something.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-9355269099987360532011-03-02T09:26:06.694-05:002011-03-02T09:26:06.694-05:00Why not Eric the Red? Has flair...Eric#1 is ok tho...Why not Eric the Red? Has flair...Eric#1 is ok though.Don Pontioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02452933558086907142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-51219066416366847132011-03-02T09:25:35.873-05:002011-03-02T09:25:35.873-05:00Eric#1
How about adding a picture to your handle?Eric#1<br />How about adding a picture to your handle?Dr. Jeromehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03006106422825163554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-83695071871494226292011-03-02T09:23:09.949-05:002011-03-02T09:23:09.949-05:00OK, guys. Toying with the idea of this handle chan...OK, guys. Toying with the idea of this handle change, in order to avoid any confusion as per our discussion of last night. What do you think?Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-84721347410521283432011-03-02T09:13:00.256-05:002011-03-02T09:13:00.256-05:00Dr. J,
Loved your jumper. One of the best ever :-...Dr. J,<br /><br />Loved your jumper. One of the best ever :-)<br /><br />Am I paranoid about the EE? In a word: YES!ewc58https://www.blogger.com/profile/08838475045073270530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-20820471647861767182011-03-02T09:12:49.234-05:002011-03-02T09:12:49.234-05:00I don't think we will have a brutal EE attack ...I don't think we will have a brutal EE attack today!!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631790961444613890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-7342556880027867202011-03-02T09:10:48.681-05:002011-03-02T09:10:48.681-05:00just sold my gpl for a 5 % gain from yesterdays bu...just sold my gpl for a 5 % gain from yesterdays buy in premarket today. I am too scared to hold til open for some reason due to market yesterdayragedmaximushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04039264952218783151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-89662168902510792712011-03-02T09:06:11.462-05:002011-03-02T09:06:11.462-05:00So if we have another day like yesterday, do I tri...So if we have another day like yesterday, do I trim a little more back? That's about the only thing on my mind right now.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-35932003770147766902011-03-02T09:06:06.122-05:002011-03-02T09:06:06.122-05:00"A Turd! A Turd! My Kingdom for a Turd!"..."A Turd! A Turd! My Kingdom for a Turd!", <br /><br />My thanks to the Turd and his Turdists for this site. There is much to learn about the day to day machinations in price that I have witnessed but have not understood. <br /><br />let us all go forth now and collect in swarms like flies on Gold.rthaler71https://www.blogger.com/profile/03227298271202513472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-13327254843878991562011-03-02T09:04:09.199-05:002011-03-02T09:04:09.199-05:00@caramel, I think what you'd see in a serious ...@caramel, I think what you'd see in a serious trouncing in the market is all the speculative non-producing juniors getting nailed the most. <br /><br />These are very different times from 3 years ago in so many ways and I don't think gold, and particularly silver, would see the downside action they did in 2008. That being said, some of the larger miners like HL, AUY, NEM, GG, etc. could see upside if gold and silver were to advance as it would be a way to stay in commodities and leverage into a safe-haven play.<br /><br />There is A LOT of money floating around and even during a recession or slaughter in the market money is looking for return. <br /><br />We'll have to wait and see but being invested in non-producing miners is about as risky as can be. Trust me, I was heavily invested in GORO during 2008 when the stock went from $4+ down to the low $2s and I didn't sell; since then it has done quite nicely and is now producing. If I sensed a massive sell-off panic was about to occur I'd probably bail out of most of my non-producing positions. <br /><br />Just my .02Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-12659531708737155842011-03-02T08:59:48.769-05:002011-03-02T08:59:48.769-05:00Are we so accustomed to EE paranoia that when a We...Are we so accustomed to EE paranoia that when a Wednesday looks like it is opening strong, we don't trust it? Perhaps we are in new territory.Dr. Jeromehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03006106422825163554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-67524227239461842302011-03-02T08:59:09.978-05:002011-03-02T08:59:09.978-05:00extremistan:
1. love the handle babe
2. He might...extremistan:<br /><br />1. love the handle babe<br /><br />2. He might want to share that little tidbit with his AGA butt buddy Munger.<br /><br />Hey Turd, nice use of "AGA" there, eh? I'm trying. Haven't seen it used enuf since your vid last Sunday. But Charlie Munger: when you look up AGA on wikilietoya, his picture shows.ewc58https://www.blogger.com/profile/08838475045073270530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-56920805164432200662011-03-02T08:53:09.814-05:002011-03-02T08:53:09.814-05:00Sumo, what a joke these jimmied numbers are...
He...Sumo, what a joke these jimmied numbers are...<br /><br />Here's a does of morning reality: USDX down 0.33 to 76.72, while the metals are hanging tough.<br /><br />Either Blythe is late into the Morgue for whack-em Wednesday, or we are into new territory.ewc58https://www.blogger.com/profile/08838475045073270530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-59981320403885269042011-03-02T08:51:42.799-05:002011-03-02T08:51:42.799-05:00I would love to know if someone has done some seri...I would love to know if someone has done some serious analysis of Gold and Silver prices ever since JP Morgan had closed their proprietary trading desk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-50924628537519134892011-03-02T08:36:29.806-05:002011-03-02T08:36:29.806-05:00JPM has a sweet tooth
via WSJ:
Raw-Sugar Deliver...JPM has a sweet tooth<br /><br />via WSJ:<br /><br />Raw-Sugar Deliveries for March Futures in N.Y. Surge to JPMorgan(JPM). Almost 1 million metric tons of raw sugar was delivered to JPMorgan Chase & Co. to settle the expiring futures contract in New York, the most for the commodity since 2009, exchange data show. JPMorgan Futures, a unit of the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, took delivery on 18,748 sugar contracts, or the equivalent of 952,398 tons, ICE Futures U.S. said today in a report on its website. That’s 9.2 percent of what the government expects the U.S. to use this year. Prices have rallied 75 percent in the past 11 months.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-54024169857457976362011-03-02T08:35:06.111-05:002011-03-02T08:35:06.111-05:00Buffet just said on CNBC, quote: "paper money...Buffet just said on CNBC, quote: "paper money is not a good bet" ...I'm assuming he is endorsing real money, like Gold and Silver, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-27012189438889566982011-03-02T08:17:40.220-05:002011-03-02T08:17:40.220-05:00ADP payrolls up:
prior: 187,000
current: 217,000
...ADP payrolls up:<br />prior: 187,000<br />current: 217,000<br /><br />The glorious recovery continuessumohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16490367189677374605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-10290388295541954012011-03-02T08:11:04.373-05:002011-03-02T08:11:04.373-05:00the rally looks really formidable. the dollar is c...the rally looks really formidable. the dollar is collapsing. im wondering if it might be even more successful then you guys are thinking.Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01119542166710974384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-87917424884541487712011-03-02T07:58:42.988-05:002011-03-02T07:58:42.988-05:00do you think sprotts etf would benefit from an slv...do you think sprotts etf would benefit from an slv collapse. Or will every one abandon paper stocksTimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18089960937809261232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-8522183182205129862011-03-02T07:50:52.397-05:002011-03-02T07:50:52.397-05:00sumo, likely will be over the longer term. Just p...sumo, likely will be over the longer term. Just pointing out that anything can happen in a downturn on the physical price and/or prices of mining stocks.caramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.com