tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post6444703951115343680..comments2024-02-23T05:16:46.265-05:00Comments on Along The Watchtower: Sprott UpdateTurd Fergusonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-61442393717647801532010-12-09T22:48:52.138-05:002010-12-09T22:48:52.138-05:00Got it TF. Like I said, it should have just asked...Got it TF. Like I said, it should have just asked for an explanation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-86181687772895897652010-12-09T21:28:58.618-05:002010-12-09T21:28:58.618-05:00Give, think of it in this simplified example:
JPM ...Give, think of it in this simplified example:<br />JPM decides to sell 1000 brand new paper silver contracts and the last sale for silver was $30. They look at the order books and they see that their 1000 would be the offer at 30 but there are not enough bids at 29.95 to cover it. Maybe instead, to fill the order, they have to find pending bids much lower. Maybe there's<br />100 at 29.95<br />100 at 29.90<br />100 at 29.85<br />100 at 29.80<br />100 at 29.75<br />100 at 29.70<br />100 at 29.65<br />100 at 29.60<br />100 at 29.55 and the final 100 contracts find a buyer at<br />100 at 29.50<br /><br />By taking advantage of a momentarily "thin" order book, Blythe drove the price all the way down to 29.50 from 30.<br /><br />I hope that helps. TFTurd Fergusonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-14862456788326725802010-12-09T20:30:08.671-05:002010-12-09T20:30:08.671-05:00Turd: Help me understand this. The EE manipulate...Turd: Help me understand this. The EE manipulates the price by overwhelming the system with sale orders. The price plummets. Why does this work? Doesn't there have to be a buyer on the other side of the sale? If so, aren't they eventually going to wipe out the buyers they force out of the market? I mean once you've taken all of my money, I'm no longer a player. Seems to me, eventually, they are going to have to act as both buyer and seller on the same transaction. I should have probably just said, hey I don't get it, explain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-49360689218916286352010-12-09T20:17:30.538-05:002010-12-09T20:17:30.538-05:00A great public service, Turd. Thank you.
btw, I r...A great public service, Turd. Thank you.<br /><br />btw, I received a very gracious personal response to my email to Bart Chilton.<br /><br />BC/TF 2012!Silver Timerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04384510197314818840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-85906364640805954552010-12-09T19:01:18.919-05:002010-12-09T19:01:18.919-05:00Fiend's Brave Vctim,
My understanding, which ...Fiend's Brave Vctim,<br /><br />My understanding, which is by no means that of an expert, is that it is a matter of degree. If you look at the amount of volatility, the up/dow of silver is MUCH more dramatic than gold.<br /><br />With respect to manipulation, the data would suggest that while it occurs in gold, it occurs more more dramatically in silver, once again by looking at the data. Concentrated short position is much MORE concentrated in silver.<br /><br />Another interesting observation is that at times recently, silver and gold DIVERGE to an extent, rather than moving in seeming lockstep.<br /><br />So I think it is accurate to say gold is not "merely reacting to silver price movements", as you point out.<br /><br />Rather, the cause has a more dramatic effect in silver.<br /><br />I would welcome any other thoughts on this point. And let's thank Turd ONCE AGAIN for supplying a place to exchange ideas in this way!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-10142456765907817432010-12-09T18:45:44.532-05:002010-12-09T18:45:44.532-05:00Can I raise a point for discussion? It seems to me...Can I raise a point for discussion? It seems to me that there is an inconsistency here: If the price of gold is not being manipulated just as much as silver, then how come when we see a raid like we did earlier in the week it happened almost identically (let's say looking at the shape of a 10 minute chart) in both metals. It doesn't seem possible that gold is merely reacting to silver price movements---gold is a much heavier market and so surely it would take a huge and well-connected player to be able to short these movements, especially as quickly as it seems to happen. I do see the gold price follow the silver price with a slight lag sometimes, but we're talking seconds here. Surely not possible!<br /><br />All thoughts appreciated, I'm really enjoying the commentary on this blog, keep it up.Fiend's Brave Victimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17899540469822874225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-13117637297614334532010-12-09T18:38:32.361-05:002010-12-09T18:38:32.361-05:00GG,
For sure. I only started with options just thi...GG,<br />For sure. I only started with options just this month actually; have a LOT to learn. Have spent the better part of five years ACCUMULATING physical, using retirement funds for SLV (now PSLV based on arguments here), mining stocks. <br /><br />Options are just "insurance" if you will for the explosion, which is coming soon. Like 1-2% of total investment at most. For anyone starting now, I would say as many Eagles/Maple Leafs as you can get.<br /><br />Options are the tip of the pyramid, which has a broad base of physical.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-15879240732075718372010-12-09T18:30:15.840-05:002010-12-09T18:30:15.840-05:00Cris, the possibilities are indeed exciting and th...Cris, the possibilities are indeed exciting and the potential profits are seductively enticing. But, let's always remember that "the market can stay irrational [or illegally manipulated] longer than you can stay solvent". Let's make sure we don't overbet so that we will still be around when the price does take off.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-86212907035452657232010-12-09T18:21:38.662-05:002010-12-09T18:21:38.662-05:00GG,
Yep. The key figure to watch here is the gold...GG,<br />Yep. The key figure to watch here is the gold:silver ratio IMHO. It's like what 48 or so now. Historically, for HUNDREDS OF YEARS, it was 16!! SO I agree completely that silver will be a rocketship compared to gold. That's why I REALLY perked up on that story from King World News that said their inside source, who has been spot on, expects gold to jump $150 in five weeks. That means AT LEAST $4 in silver, if not much more given the possibility of overshoot.<br />Just WAY too many factors for silver:<br />1. Regulatory --- position limits which BTW only really affect silver<br />2. Physical shortage -- more and more stories of delivery delays<br />3. Increasing investor demand -- Eagles being SNAPPED up<br />I think we all have to position ourselves aggressively in options. It's kind of like insurance that we MAXIMALLY profit from being right about this -- if we LITERALLY wake up one day and find silver at $40, or $50 (or more!) we want to be set. A couple $K in options each month assures that. <br /><br />If they go down the tubes this month fine; next month, fine; one moth VERY SOON we will be correct and our exponential profits will make previous losses seem quite trivial.<br /><br />My bet is that is how JPM is thinking. <br /><br />As Mr. ted Butler wrote, and I paraphrase, imagine the unimaginable and position yourself accordingly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-89544845227942853902010-12-09T18:14:48.432-05:002010-12-09T18:14:48.432-05:00A must-read from King World News, with some good i...A must-read from King World News, with some good intel. on the BoS.<br /><br />http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/9_KWN_Source_-_Gold_Will_Move_%24150_Higher_Within_5_Weeks.html<br /><br /><br />http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/sumohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16490367189677374605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-46492359823152197552010-12-09T18:14:16.095-05:002010-12-09T18:14:16.095-05:00Dd: yes you can find this at ZH, too. The highligh...Dd: yes you can find this at ZH, too. The highlight of my day was seeing that I got it posted 7 minutes before "Tyler" did.Turd Fergusonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-70614108398956449652010-12-09T18:14:01.780-05:002010-12-09T18:14:01.780-05:00Blythe and the Greedy Bankers,the best advert for ...Blythe and the Greedy Bankers,the best advert for Gold and Silver ever.Such Knowledge,Such Brains,Such Education,Such Arrogance to think they know better than the past 5000 years of safeguarding wealth.<br /> <br />Buy Silver,take down a bank,its your Patriotic Duty !!!!!!!cbottlebobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00083472530750601310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-26543594273032342992010-12-09T18:08:25.343-05:002010-12-09T18:08:25.343-05:00Cris, I do see logic in that argument. It's b...Cris, I do see logic in that argument. It's backed up by Sprott's report, which tells us the relatively miniscule shorting of gold. That says to me that the current gold price may be a reasonably fair one, in that the comex price is probably not radically different from a price that would be determined in a purely physical market. But what Sprott taught me in his report is just how outsized the price distortion is in silver. It has convinced me to reduce my gold position and increase my silver position.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-48431412794518516502010-12-09T17:59:41.187-05:002010-12-09T17:59:41.187-05:00GG,
Another poster suggested a theory that I think...GG,<br />Another poster suggested a theory that I think is actually most likely, namely that JPM may turn around someday and go long. With the ability to leverage profits almost exponentially with options trading, it is difficult for me to beleive they would not at least break even, given they would lose a bundle on the short side. I think they MUST have some strategy from getting out from under this position, given that we must assume they are very bright.<br />Additionally, I have heard the argument that this would bring the whole system down and end fiat etc. I don't think this is true; after all, the silver market is a TINY, TINY market, esp compared to gold. So another reason I love silver is that simply ridiculous things could occur with respect to price, and THE WORLD WOULD GO ON.<br />Another intersting thing to me is that the upcoming imposition of position limits in silver trading would by definition affect LONGS and SHORTS. If this theory is correct, we could see fireworks very soon.<br />One way or another this will work itself out in short order. The growing physical shortage will see to that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-55575731472743520432010-12-09T17:40:47.246-05:002010-12-09T17:40:47.246-05:00Turd, this is great, thank you very much.
Just fo...Turd, this is great, thank you very much.<br /><br />Just following up on your earlier comments regarding Blythe's "dirty pool" tactics, shouldn't such tactics be cause for celebration? As long as we are not day trading silver, then who cares? More significant, to me, seems to be the increasingly desperate situation for the short sellers. If they can't push prices lower during high volume times they will naturally move to low volume times. But that just means their manipulations are increasingly less powerful, no?<br /><br />Just look at what the silver price has done over the last few months. I'm sure JPM would like to have silver at $10 rather than $28. They are clearly losing. All the "dirty pool" tactics are doing now is to slow the rate of price increase, which doesn't bother me too much.<br /><br />What concerns me more, given that the short positions are too big to be covered, is a new, out of left-field, manipulation that none of us have imagined yet.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-375649166376317692010-12-09T17:20:10.708-05:002010-12-09T17:20:10.708-05:00Maybe easier to read at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.c...Maybe easier to read at ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprotts-double-barreled-silver-issueRoCoachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15137911853961787561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-9147198448329419592010-12-09T16:46:25.871-05:002010-12-09T16:46:25.871-05:00Turd, this is awesome. Do you have a link to a PDF...Turd, this is awesome. Do you have a link to a PDF or something, the fine print is hard to read!ddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15903424701139390195noreply@blogger.com