tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post6563402411841235251..comments2024-02-23T05:16:46.265-05:00Comments on Along The Watchtower: Return Of ChartDaddy (updated)Turd Fergusonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comBlogger114125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-89266762967252903862011-01-17T19:23:05.322-05:002011-01-17T19:23:05.322-05:00The report i just posted from McClellan is actuall...The report i just posted from McClellan is actually a year old, but not much has changed in the interim.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-47876072517566300182011-01-17T19:20:41.633-05:002011-01-17T19:20:41.633-05:00No doubt everyone has read this before, but just i...No doubt everyone has read this before, but just in case:<br /><br />http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_one_real_fundamental_factor_driving_gold_prices/<br />Key conclusion:<br />"Until the Fed decides to raise short term rates above the inflation rate, it is a great environment for gold prices to zoom higher. How much higher depends on how long the Fed stays on the wrong side of the ball, and keeps real interest rates negative."Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-24579539363232391892011-01-17T19:10:53.268-05:002011-01-17T19:10:53.268-05:00Barb I completely agree about physical. I could c...Barb I completely agree about physical. I could care less about the paper price because it's not even an investment in my eyes. It's real money I might never sell.... But most of the topic with Turd is short to medium term and those here with miners need to look at all perspectives....The market is an emotional beast and looking at many views can help in decision making. I've been long gold/miners for a decade. Today I'm short term bearish but some people don't even want to consider that. Ignoring the signs can be detrimental to your acct. You are right about miner/volatilityJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13647224553740343867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-65912375181356666252011-01-17T19:04:10.407-05:002011-01-17T19:04:10.407-05:00Imho Silver will violently oscillate between paper...Imho Silver will violently oscillate between paper and physical price. What I know for sure is that once the price is too suppressed, nobody will sell silver anymore. <br /><br />Look what happened in good ol' GDR times - everything was cheap, nothing was available. You could get high quality western stuff, but for 10x the price.<br />Same nowadays - same form of economy, same health of economy, same outcome. Just your government is not called Politbüro, yet. Who'd have thought that the Russians won the cold war and finally imposed mighty communism upon the US :)Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05671043146569168617noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-73136828063038911842011-01-17T18:52:16.782-05:002011-01-17T18:52:16.782-05:00What's that old saying? "The market can ...What's that old saying? "The market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent" or something like that. A corollary might be "The market can stay manipulated longer than you can stay solvent". Yes, if they slam down the paper price, miners will get obliterated. And all the rational or theoretical arguments in the world won't put that money back in your account. I guess where we differ ( if we really do) is what time frame we are talking about and what happens to paper vs physical prices. Paper can swing the physical around in the shorter run, but in the longer run I believe physical prices win the day. <br /><br />I quit trading miners a long time ago because personally I couldn't take the volatility. I saw too many stocks go down like 50% overnight, whether I thought it was rational or not. I've found that investing primarily in physical personally gave me the fortitude to hang in there and ride some things out that I never could do with miners, buy the dips without so much fear, etc, and I've done quite nicely. If you want to trade miners you have to be concerned with the short term, you have to watch the paper price, because that's what will make or break you. If it's working for you, Jeff, then more power to you. You're my hero man, but it just ain't for me. Finding the gig that works for each of us is what it's all about.<br /><br />EricBarbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11649262402849706241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-65667241674181590842011-01-17T18:50:31.546-05:002011-01-17T18:50:31.546-05:00Dear Turd,
I worry that Blythe may have found your...Dear Turd,<br />I worry that Blythe may have found your page and will do the opposite of what you predict. The internet is a small world.<br />I had a link to your new video in a conversation on my facebook page. Another friend saw it and commented that his friend had actually dated the white witch herself.<br />Still trying to find out the gossip on whether she has a penis or not. Must be hard to keep a relationship when you're up at all hours trying to take over the world.CookieMonsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08356636942317775128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-83546487208233698652011-01-17T18:50:05.828-05:002011-01-17T18:50:05.828-05:00Jeff-
Actually, we agree. If my theory is right, ...Jeff-<br /><br />Actually, we agree. If my theory is right, and if the stocks go up gangbusters, then the PM suppression will end. But if the earnings are so-so or Steve Jobs bum liver crashes Nasdaq (all the best to him for a speedy recovery) then the suppression would continue to prevent any unfavorable comparisons. Just a theory, but it seems as likely as some of the others posted here....Kiwi#1https://www.blogger.com/profile/14398102273757175751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-66348159661552056092011-01-17T18:25:29.676-05:002011-01-17T18:25:29.676-05:00Jeff wrote:
"And regardless the spread betwe...Jeff wrote:<br /><br />"And regardless the spread between physical and paper, physical will follow that price."<br /><br />According to Harvey, Comex shorts are paying off major longs with cash + premium, to avoid physical delivery. Premium is up to 30%.<br /><br />I would expect to see:<br /><br />Comex price + hidden premium = physical price<br /><br />If the Comex price suppression keeps up, while physical delivery gets tighter, I would expect both the physical price and the unofficial premium on Comex to increase.sumohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16490367189677374605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-583364906854124612011-01-17T18:03:42.355-05:002011-01-17T18:03:42.355-05:00Kiwi I can make just the opposite arguement rega...Kiwi I can make just the opposite arguement regarding a rising stock market might lift miners/gold.....It can be perceived (especially with the lying press) that BECAUSE the market is rising THEREFORE fear is dwindling and we don't NEED metal protection....Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13647224553740343867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-38740312838459441762011-01-17T17:59:20.079-05:002011-01-17T17:59:20.079-05:00FISD and Barb.... You can disagree with me all you...FISD and Barb.... You can disagree with me all you want.....Been trading miners specifically for a decade. If paper prices go down miners will go down. End of story. And regardless the spread between physical and paper, physical will follow that price.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13647224553740343867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-35058785649848100262011-01-17T17:41:53.497-05:002011-01-17T17:41:53.497-05:00Every single ounce that is not bought by the US Go...Every single ounce that is not bought by the US Gov (for Eagle production) will be quickly bought by Silvertowne, A-Mark, Sunshine, and the rest. Delivery backlogs will get longer on Eagles, shorter on others. No diff to me or to the market in general.<br /><br />EricBarbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11649262402849706241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-80195294952927760122011-01-17T17:41:39.199-05:002011-01-17T17:41:39.199-05:00Silver analysis:
http://blog.kimblechartingsoluti...Silver analysis:<br /><br />http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/01/breaking-news-gold-and-silver-stocks/<br /><br />http://www.peaktheories.com/docs/TDPJan142011.pdfJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-44666364725320595842011-01-17T17:31:11.143-05:002011-01-17T17:31:11.143-05:00the paper market/physical market/general stock mar...the paper market/physical market/general stock market/ relation to the mining stocks conundrum is something that isn't sufficiently covered on many of these sites. glad to see some discussion here as no doubt a lot of us are at least somewhat invested. <br />hopefully that can continue to occur without getting into individual stocks - but as a sector.brad pitts better looking brotherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17584420284703471899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-15706167203020030302011-01-17T17:29:44.166-05:002011-01-17T17:29:44.166-05:00A view on gold stocks from a very good analyst (&q...A view on gold stocks from a very good analyst ("good analyst" means someone whose ideas have helped me make money in the past):<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/246868-do-gold-mining-stocks-qualify-as-a-contrarian-tradeTurdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-57667024026687370122011-01-17T17:14:34.069-05:002011-01-17T17:14:34.069-05:00@titanium
Sorry if I wasn't sufficiently clea...@titanium<br /><br />Sorry if I wasn't sufficiently clear. I did not intend to imply the 111-302 allows the Sec Treas (Timmah) to set price. It does empower Sec Treas to set quantity and quality of Silver Eagles. What I meant is as follows:<br />1. The spot price of physical silver is manipulated artificially low by naked short selling at the Comex by JPM and perhaps the Chicoms as part of an accumulation strategy.<br />2. As we learned in Econ 101, an artificially low price will create a shortage of physical. (Expect spreads for physical to grow dramatically).<br />3. 111-302 was passed to give the Treasury statutory "out" to limit production of Silver Eagles. Under the law as previously written the Treasury would technically have been obligated to procure physical silver to mint Eagles in order to meet demand.<br />4. A shortage of physical silver will have no MEANINGFUL political consequences. Contra gasoline, nobody is going to lose their Senate seat because there is a shortage of silver. <br />5. Thus, the U.S. government is now solidly positioned to suppress silver future prices on the Comex as long as necessary.<br />6. Miners sell on the futures markets and according to spot prices. Always have, always will. Sales of futures finance current operations. If the price suppression scheme is successful it will kill the miners, and particularly the juniors. <br /><br />Barb has it right, with the caveat that the purpose of 111-302 is to insulate Treasury from the costs of an arbitrage play in physical silver created by its own price manipulation. The Treasury is now out. It's game on--all the guns can come out now.blythe_mastershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10163629297945429755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-79218767147241065922011-01-17T16:45:17.954-05:002011-01-17T16:45:17.954-05:00Totally agree with FISD. At some point the physic...Totally agree with FISD. At some point the physical and paper markets will disconnect. A willing buyer (say a refiner/minting co.) and a willing seller (say a miner) are not bound by whatever shenanigans go on at the COMEX in any way shape or form. They will find their own price.<br /><br />EricBarbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11649262402849706241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-19184168972057440762011-01-17T16:20:26.845-05:002011-01-17T16:20:26.845-05:00"If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you ..."If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade."<br /><br />I disagree. We are already seeing a disconnect between paper and physical markets. Just watch bullion vault prices vs COMEX prices someday or watch the price of silver purchased directly from a miner like First Majestic. When it comes to a seller parting with the physical they get to name their price. IMO the gap between physical and paper will continue to grow.<br /><br />Now if a miner is selling silver for $40/oz at some point in the future and the COMEX crooks have driven paper silver to $20, which number do you think the miner will be using to file their quarterly results to the market? As Martenson says, the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20. Share prices of the miners will DISCONNECT from paper silver prices at some point in the future.<br /><br />@DD - Your question for Blythe is priceless!Bill.Sarah.Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16045455049430825526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-21876492029367288022011-01-17T16:14:27.719-05:002011-01-17T16:14:27.719-05:00Rather than get a reputation as a perma-bear on th...Rather than get a reputation as a perma-bear on this board, I'll throw a hopeful thought out:<br /><br />Since, at the moment (or so it seems to me) the price of the PMs is being determined by politics and psychology rather than market forces, the end of the current manipulation may depend on some event/situation that moves most folks away from thinking about PMs. One possibility is if the stock market jumps on earnings season...if the Dow hits new highs during the coming weeks, no one will care if gold starts to creep up again. And it opens the possibility that the push-down was to make the PMs unattractive even if earnings suck and the Dow tanks. The Bernank is clinging to justifying QE-whatever on the basis of boosting the market....it would look really bad if the market was down while PMs stayed up.<br /><br />So if earnings look great, maybe the PMs will be unleashed.<br /><br />Just a thought!Kiwi#1https://www.blogger.com/profile/14398102273757175751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-21872769369356953952011-01-17T16:08:05.235-05:002011-01-17T16:08:05.235-05:00and yes it would probably only add to the scarcity...and yes it would probably only add to the scarcity buzz in the marketplace and make matters worse (from Treasury's perspective). HA HA HA.Barbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11649262402849706241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-88021859449540202842011-01-17T16:04:48.830-05:002011-01-17T16:04:48.830-05:00@titanium
Yeah, I recognize that a lot of people w...@titanium<br />Yeah, I recognize that a lot of people want Eagles for their silver, but when push comes to shove and you want some silver, and you can't get Eagles, you'll buy something else. Canada, Australia, Britain, plus all kinds of private mints that are well recognized in the marketplace. Johnson Matthey, Engelhard, A-Mark, Silvertowne, Northwest Territorial, Mexico Libertads, 90% coin, Morgan and Peace Dollars, the list goes on and on. No coin dealer will hesitate at all in buying back any of these. I think Treasury is way overestimating their own ability to manipulate the physical market just via mintage of Silver Eagles.<br /><br />EricBarbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11649262402849706241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-11366155968892853342011-01-17T15:44:40.765-05:002011-01-17T15:44:40.765-05:00"If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you ..."If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade."<br /><br />So, if the price of silver & the miners tank ...how long do you experts foresee that 'they' can hold the line on this? Has anything changed that we expect a different end game?.. I'm thinking that this game can only be played to 'their' benefit for only so long.<br /><br />Look.. it's bad enough that the country is being crushed. ..It's disgusting how 'they' always seem to win.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07800567034093544029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-73494238426188682632011-01-17T15:43:20.696-05:002011-01-17T15:43:20.696-05:00Dear Blythe.Silver is a real problem,the price goe...Dear Blythe.Silver is a real problem,the price goes down officially,unofficially physical Silver just keeps getting higher,however personally its not been a problem as for the last few decades its been easy to sell Silver that you don,t own and you just settle in fiat.Silver is not the problem fiat is,millions of people are voting with their feet and making a trip to the local coin shop.Your a clever girl get yourself down there if your very lucky they will have some.All the best Bob.cbottlebobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00083472530750601310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-54916621163379490982011-01-17T15:30:09.727-05:002011-01-17T15:30:09.727-05:00Titanium....In reply to Blythes mining prediction....Titanium....In reply to Blythes mining prediction.......Even with an eagle shortage "They" can manipulate the paper price down and, refering to 6 months from now, hold it there. As sad as it is, miners trade with the futures price. If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13647224553740343867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-53798770297361311582011-01-17T14:52:51.820-05:002011-01-17T14:52:51.820-05:00@Barb (Eric),
That's interesting, and is the...@Barb (Eric), <br /><br />That's interesting, and is the piece of the puzzle I was missing. On the surface, Law 111-302 didn't seem to help the Treasury suppress silver prices (in fact, just the opposite). <br /><br />But if they were indeed historically mandated to buy enough bullion to meet market demand, this law effectively allows the US mint to stop contributing to demand pressures. I think Timmy is hoping it will give them the flexibility to dampen the stress on bullion demand (and therefore contribute to lowering silver prices). My feeling is that it doesn't work out the way they planned, and that public demand for sovereign silver simply shifts to non-US sources. <br /><br />To the extent that other governments follow the US lead and artificially restrict finished silver supply, it's simply going to exacerbate the shortage of available silver to meet public demand for bullion, reinforce the silver scarcity thesis, and drive prices skyward in a self-reinforcing loop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-14841935403140367162011-01-17T14:38:40.667-05:002011-01-17T14:38:40.667-05:00Blythe, you lost me on the last few paragraphs of ...Blythe, you lost me on the last few paragraphs of your last post. Public Law 111-302 doesn't give the Treasury the right to determine the market price of silver. The net effect of Timmy deciding to limit Silver Eagle and other US mint production is that there will be less US mint bullion for the masses to buy. Public Demand will simply shift to bullion sourced from other sovereign mints (from Canada, the EU, Australia, etc). <br /><br />The net effect of a US bullion shortage is that it will drive prices up and make price suppression harder. Higher prices are good for mining stocks, so I'm not sure why you're saying they're going to be gutted as a result of 111-302. Care to clarify your thinking here?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com