tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post6746774529761915236..comments2024-02-23T05:16:46.265-05:00Comments on Along The Watchtower: Quick Globex UpdateTurd Fergusonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-20669315714166207402011-03-04T08:49:57.791-05:002011-03-04T08:49:57.791-05:00That was a big jump up. Should I STFSThat was a big jump up. Should I STFSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-90396013563806615982011-03-03T21:35:01.318-05:002011-03-03T21:35:01.318-05:00Paul Breed:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/45ageap
h...Paul Breed:<br /><br />http://preview.tinyurl.com/45ageap<br /><br />http://tinyurl.com/45ageapDarth Smokerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04656621355883742885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-24716047676459032532011-03-03T21:27:37.703-05:002011-03-03T21:27:37.703-05:00Question about option delta implied volatility etc...Question about option delta implied volatility etc.... Any good free or low cost option analysis calculators available?<br /><br />In about 1986 I wrote a dos based graphical option calculator/spread sheet for the PC, I have not done any serious option trading since that time. I could recreate my own tool in modern form in a few days, but it seems a waste if something ready to use exists.<br /><br />Is Black Schole's still the primary pricing model used? Based on the reference material I have a futures option should have a slightly different calculation than a stock option model, so do suggested tools offer the futures price model?<br /><br />Any tools that get real time bid/ask data on futures options and then spit out the various implied volatility, greeks etc..etc...?<br /><br />Looking at prices it seems that the call premiums are a bit fatter than the put premiums, I don't understand why this is, real interest rates are so low, why isn't this difference arbitraged to zero with synthetic calls?Paul Breedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11024641086551653462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-1425172306947158592011-03-03T21:26:35.346-05:002011-03-03T21:26:35.346-05:00@Liverdiefree
Many thanks.
WE@Liverdiefree<br /><br />Many thanks.<br /><br />WEWayne Edwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14750475483823431402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-20727073373057102652011-03-03T21:16:20.509-05:002011-03-03T21:16:20.509-05:00Man silver has been looking super strong in the ov...Man silver has been looking super strong in the overnight markets only to get bashed to hell the following day. It'll be interesting to see how furious the beat down is tomorrow with the NFP data which is sure to be good since the government has supposedly figured out another way to cook the books. One has to wonder whether the Gallup "underemployment" number which is probably much more reliable than the MOPE-peddling government will have any effect.<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gallup-reports-underemployment-surges-199-jobs-situation-deteriorates-bad-february-2010flaunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16131258898695819788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-69920284401828645462011-03-03T21:16:03.055-05:002011-03-03T21:16:03.055-05:00Your overnight thread has been prepared for you.Your overnight thread has been prepared for you.Turd Fergusonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03393759110641882003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-80491107558072924792011-03-03T21:13:28.976-05:002011-03-03T21:13:28.976-05:00@Wayne Edwards
Go to Trader Dan's site,
htt...@Wayne Edwards<br /><br />Go to Trader Dan's site, <br /><br />http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/03/remember-carry-trade.html <br /><br />and use the link to Fort Wealth Trading Company. They handle and will setup Comex deliveries.Sneedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01012273855309343589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-58874757957295770902011-03-03T21:13:08.443-05:002011-03-03T21:13:08.443-05:00syk,
it is very possible that the legal dept doesn...syk,<br />it is very possible that the legal dept doesn't know about certain things. What happens inside these banks is that traders often try to do things without informing the legal dept. (As you might imagine, traders and lawyers are quite different in temperament, risk tolerance, etc.). If a lawyer knows about an illegal act he has a duty to the court to inform the authorities. That provides a lot of incentive for traders to leave the lawyers in the dark. It can also promote a "hear no evil, see no evil" attitude among some lawyers. <br /><br />Trading desks also sometimes have their own lawyers, separate from the main legal dept. Such lawyers are paid from the profits of the trading desk, so you can imagine the temptations of such lawyers to take a liberal approach or to "look the other way". Amazing how a lot of cash can help a lawyer live with the guilt of breaching his profession's codes of ethics. <br /><br />And, if I might be cynical for a moment, if I worked as a lawyer for JPM I would not feel particularly concerned about anybody coming after me.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-16141186900154603282011-03-03T21:08:57.096-05:002011-03-03T21:08:57.096-05:00Impossible to believe that WB is the only group st...Impossible to believe that WB is the only group standing for delivery (or receiving cash settlements).<br /><br />Everyone knows physical is tight, and WB 'strategy' is you can call it that, is published on the web. So isn't a non-disclosure agreement too late? A premium of 80% catches eyes (if true) but personally anything more than a few % is unsustainable .... <br /><br />As an aside, can anyone provide a link / guidance as how to stand for delivery on a contract in May? I trade with a discount broker so obviously they are of no use. Have done a google search but there is not exactly a tonne of info ... masses of info written about Wynter Benton and the fact that there is no silver anywhere, but bugger all on how to actually stand for delivery.Wayne Edwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14750475483823431402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-88269144591328155772011-03-03T21:08:02.548-05:002011-03-03T21:08:02.548-05:00@Napa
Thanks! I'll check it out.@Napa<br /><br />Thanks! I'll check it out.oldNavyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13469860895472725824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-27771415480185515492011-03-03T20:51:09.894-05:002011-03-03T20:51:09.894-05:00syk & turdle gg
yup, this was all under the ta...syk & turdle gg<br />yup, this was all under the table...<br />what i'm trying to find out is whether cash settlements have to be reported.<br />harvey claims cash settlements are illegal, but i don't see that anywhere in the regs.<br />so blythe went behind the back of her own attorneys, and potentially the cash settlement rules of the comex as required by the cftc.<br />double doo doo doo for blythe. i think these traders are screwed also. all these WB rumors are BS to manipulate us is all i can come up with.CookieMonsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08356636942317775128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-21576044653580089912011-03-03T20:41:43.066-05:002011-03-03T20:41:43.066-05:00@Turdle GG
Inexperienced lawyer here, but do you ...@Turdle GG<br /><br />Inexperienced lawyer here, but do you think it's possible BM chose not to disclose the deal to JPM's legal dept b/c of the possible conflicts of interest? Or at the very least, do you think it's possible that JPM's lawyers have no knowledge of the silver scheme? <br /><br />If JPM's lawayers knew of financial fraud perpetrated by officers of the company, they may have to report out. Additionally, BM may be in breach of their fiduciary duties to JPM's shareholders.sykhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00278179022238474682noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-6614019941015653442011-03-03T20:33:43.572-05:002011-03-03T20:33:43.572-05:00kumanari, well said.kumanari, well said.Hej och Håhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15517761906357387426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-68983126539995078072011-03-03T20:31:39.104-05:002011-03-03T20:31:39.104-05:00Brian O'Flanagan,
thanks. I read your blog po...Brian O'Flanagan,<br />thanks. I read your blog post with interest. I do not have experience in US market regulation (my legal career was all in Australia and Japan), so I defer to your views on the NYMEX Rulebook. What I would add, though, is that JPM would surely not want to deal with the scrutiny that would arise from relying on rule 7B14.<br /><br />CookieMonster,<br />my point was that any cash settlement paid to the WB group would, normally, not be allowed to be publicized. A non-disclosure agreement is the way this is achieved. I have no US market experience, so cannot comment on whether offering a cash premium is actually permitted. What does seem clear is that COMEX does not enforce its own rules.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-5033573216875110502011-03-03T20:27:24.584-05:002011-03-03T20:27:24.584-05:00@CookieMonster,
obviously, if WB was subject to a...@CookieMonster,<br /><br />obviously, if WB was subject to a confidentiality agreement, they aren't doing a good job of abiding by the terms by telling Harvey Organ!Spicy Guacamolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838769139269608716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-65600163754444931132011-03-03T20:24:36.081-05:002011-03-03T20:24:36.081-05:00bbdgoco, NFL & possible NBA's on strike co...bbdgoco, NFL & possible NBA's on strike come fall of 2011.caramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-49399326619614419832011-03-03T20:23:23.195-05:002011-03-03T20:23:23.195-05:00First it was the WSJ, now the NYT offers this in-d...First it was the WSJ, now the NYT offers this in-depth blog post giving a surprisingly accurate detailing of the situation:<br /><br />http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/Salacioushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14365612626980259880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-7655429261647878322011-03-03T20:21:45.957-05:002011-03-03T20:21:45.957-05:00turdle GG
so is the "offer they (WB's gro...turdle GG<br />so is the "offer they (WB's group) couldn't refuse" really a private contract w/ proprietary info that can be kept secret? even though jpm is a market maker and they are so screwing those who don't take their offer, or can't play the game? trying to figure this out and i appreciate your input. sifting through this to find what can be kept confidential and what not:<br />http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/file/e9-8024a.pdf<br />I believe WB is a real part of the market, and the rumors, false, true, whatever, is blatant manipulation to try to sway the market. WB, BM, both going home in a body bag...doo doo doo.CookieMonsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08356636942317775128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-30369924665701938032011-03-03T20:16:40.856-05:002011-03-03T20:16:40.856-05:00Justin, My advice if you choose to accept it is ac...Justin, My advice if you choose to accept it is accumulate. I don't trade. I've 6 or 8 10 baggers, where this is going ..it's going to set your hair on fire to quote Sinclair. RE's potash, oil,nat gas, PM's, uranium. To juice it up I buy options 70/30 call/put, itm,ntm,otm. I don't care what slw did today,yesterday, or tomorrow.They are the best miner going I've got 41,42, 43, 45, 50 calls spread from now till '13. Mar 41 up 155%.$17 jul calls on REE. Roll/exercise profits into phys and shares. this is how the 80 yr olds and dead guys made/make bank. Spend your time looking for the holes/opportunities instead of watching a screen for a 5-30% move. We are in the greatest bull market in human history most will not make it thru cause they wanna be Gordan. I don't intend to end up with a 5lb phone! <br />Alohakumanarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15505410787224698111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-4309836005882239262011-03-03T20:09:02.093-05:002011-03-03T20:09:02.093-05:00Turdle GG,
I don't work on WS, but I totally ...Turdle GG,<br /><br />I don't work on WS, but I totally agree.<br /><br />On a side note, hats off to Turd on his comment about shutting off the tv's today. It about made me sick. I thought I was living in the 90's for a moment. Utterly disgusted with the rosy picture that was painted on the economy....breakout DJ....Gas prices back to $2.00.....jobs....etc. It was sickening. I REALLY wish it was rosy, but it simply isn't so. I guess as Turd says, "Stay strong."Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00416963902675135103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-65337035338027075262011-03-03T20:08:50.848-05:002011-03-03T20:08:50.848-05:00@Turdle GG
I believe even Turd agreed that it was...@Turdle GG<br /><br />I believe even Turd agreed that it was highly unlikely that buyers were getting 80% premiums to cash settle (saw it in the comments of one of these posts)<br /><br />My rebuttal is here:<br /><br />http://northeastbullion.tumblr.com/post/3629010780/more-absurd-claims-coming-out-of-the-silver-campSpicy Guacamolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838769139269608716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-3243779706004564552011-03-03T20:08:17.335-05:002011-03-03T20:08:17.335-05:00Going a bit off topic here
To add to all the woes ...Going a bit off topic here<br />To add to all the woes of the world, now it looks like we will have an NFL lockout. Used to be that whatever else was going on one could always sit down and watch a football game. The Wisconsin folk can't even enjoy reveling in the Packers SB victory, much more important things to contend with. Ah for the good old days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-18337440179389823312011-03-03T20:06:27.987-05:002011-03-03T20:06:27.987-05:00A good read posted by Harvey for newbies on what r...A good read posted by Harvey for newbies on what really happened in regards to JPM and HSBC shorts.<br /><br />http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hpdallascfphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11165283625977669658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-22814326453958748752011-03-03T19:52:37.264-05:002011-03-03T19:52:37.264-05:00Giel and paulbain,
thank you.
IF the group got pa...Giel and paulbain,<br />thank you.<br /><br />IF the group got paid off with a premium, the lawyers would have been all over it with non-disclosure agreements. No way would WB be able to publicize the fact that they got paid off. <br /><br />The only way it wouldn't have been covered by an NDA would be if JPM's legal dept weren't informed about it. That would indicate that Blythe's dept is truly in a life-or-death situation calling for desperate measures.<br /><br />Above are purely my speculations. I feel somewhat qualified to speculate as I worked as an in-house counsel at a Wall St investment bank.Turdle GGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01132822226095829192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3034901630224544639.post-66658283251032398432011-03-03T19:50:23.773-05:002011-03-03T19:50:23.773-05:00Anyone know where to find the COMEX's specific...Anyone know where to find the COMEX's specific rules regarding cash settlements on silver futures? There are very specific rules for "security futures products", including any cash settlement for security futures must not involve manipulation or be against public interest, but if I'm correct "security futures products" doesn't include the silver future contracts, right? Security futures products would be more like GLD or SLV, (which got a sneaky exemption from the CFTC). If this WB character truly exists and took a premium, we should be able to get that specific information with a FOA request, since these banks are federally regulated entities. Here's what I found regarding CFTC's requirements as they would apply to COMEX:<br />CFTC 17 CFR Part 40 Appx. A<br />(b) Application for Cash Settled Futures Contracts<br /><br />A board of trade shall submit:<br /><br />(1) The rules setting forth the terms and conditions of the proposed futures contract.<br /><br />(2) A description of the cash market for the commodity on which the contract is based.<br /><br />(i) The description may include, in addition to or in lieu of materials prepared by the board of trade, existing studies by industry trade groups, academics, governmental bodies or other entities, reports of consultants, or other materials which provide a description of the underlying cash market.<br /><br />(ii) Where the same, or a closely related commodity, is already designated as a contract market which is not dormant, the cash market description can be confined to those aspects relevant to particular term(s) or conditions(s) which differ from such existing contract.<br /><br />(3) A demonstration that cash settlement of the contract is at a price reflecting the underlying cash market, will not be subject to manipulation or distortion, and is based on a cash price series that is reliable, acceptable, publicly available and timely.<br /><br />For purposes of this demonstration, provide the following information in chart or narrative form.<br /><br />Having a hard time finding COMEX's "chart" detailing its settlement requirements and would like some help. Next step, I will send a FOA letter with my attorney letterhead to find out just what the premium these groups got was and if this WB thing is for real. I expect to be given the run around but it's worth a shot.CookieMonsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08356636942317775128noreply@blogger.com