Coiling

The Tech Team is still working on bringing TFMR back online this morning. Their making significant progress and I hope to have the site back online later today. In the meantime, here's a quick update.

We've had a very nice rally this morning, one that is extending as I type. Of course, this is very encouraging and gold, in fact, is building a very nice "stair" accumulation pattern on the shorter-term charts.

Everything looks positive as $85B/month of QE is confirmed for the foreseeable future. To that end, the metals appear to be coiling for a breakout move here. They look to be ready to extend toward the current downtrend lines that extend back toward the highs of early October last year. As you know, I've been calling for such a move for about the past 10 days and it's looking increasingly likely. For now, though, there are two key questions:

1. Will this happen? As stated all week, these gains are nice but nothing of significance will have occurred until gold break $1626 and silver trades through $29.40. Will they do so soon? I think so but we'll see.
2. What happens when the metals encounter those down trendlines? Will they roll over again as they did in November, January and February OR will they burst through and begin to establish some new, UP trendlines?

For now, getting back to question #1, can the metals break out of their recent ranges? Amazingly, silver has now spent 4 weeks between 28.40 and 29.40!

Have a great day. I hope to get things back to "normal" at TFMR very soon.

TF

Malice

As we continue to work on getting TFMR back online, I figured I'd simply type up a new entry here.

All is (relatively) quiet this morning as the markets await the Fedlines and Bernank presser at 2:00 p.m. EDT. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/usa-fed-statement-timing-idUSL1N0C5D9Q20130313

It's always fun when The Bernank issues statements after the Comex closes and it's going to be a very wild ride again today.

Coincident to that, our pal Santa will be hosting his "chat" in NYC this afternoon. You can bet that, if given the chance, The Gold Cartel will try to jam prices down while Santa is talking, if anything just to remind him that they are still in charge...for now.

So, anyway, expect significant volatility this afternoon. On the bright side, though, is this: In between outages, I've posted two separate quotes/interviews from The Brenank's lapdog, Jon Hilsenrath of the WallStJournal. Hilsenrath has twice emphatically stated that the FOMC will not be swayed, that QE will continue ad infinitum and that The Fed will keep "hitting the gas" in order to wring out as much growth as possible from the moribund U.S. economy. With that in mind...maybe, just maybe...we'll actually get some UPside volatility. Maybe. Just be sure you're paying attention at 2:00 p.m. today.

Lastly, about the outages. It's not just my site that has been hit. You likely noticed that Max's and some others have been having trouble, too, and this appears to be related to the attacks on KWN, SD and others last month. The Tech Team is working overtime to try to fix things and we all should be extremely grateful.

I'm hoping that a forensic investigation will yield actionable results because I am fully intent upon pressing charges, if possible. These malicious attacks are designed to disable this site (my business) and they are doing significant financial damage not only through the downtime but by the cost of repairs. If this were to happen to a brick-and-mortar business, authorities would be called and arrests would be made. However, because this is the internet, the hackers feel safe behind their anonymity. Not if I have any say so in the matter, they're not. I will keep you posted in my efforts to bring them to justice. It may take a while but I'm going to try.

That's all for now. I will be traveling again today so, even with all of the Fedline volatility, I won't be able to make an updated post until this evening. Remember, nothing of significance has taken place until gold moves through $1626 and silver moves through $29.40.

TF

TFMR Down Again

Just as I posted this update, the site went down...again. Really sucks and very frustrating. Oh well, at least we have this backup site.


Why is that, lately, every time I try to get away for a few days, all hell breaks loose?
So, once again, I apologize for another abbreviated post. The Fergusons are currently in the great state of Iowa visiting MrsF's centenarious grandmother. I'll be back in my office by late tomorrow but, for today, I've got to make due.
So, let's start with this. Despite the tireless efforts of the legal teams and several, hard-working industry insiders, The Morgue finally won the permanent dismissal of the silver manipulation civil suit yesterday. Sadly, this does not come as a surprise since the rationale behind the dismissal changed little from the preliminary dismissal late last year. You can read all about it here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-jpmorgan-silver-lawsuit-idUSBRE92H10520130318. But for a more in-depth analysis, I would refer you back to the excellent legal commentary written for us by CALawyer back in very early January: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4408/guest-post-summary-silver-civil-suit-dismissal-calawyer
Moving on, the Cyprus story continues to dominate, as it should. Disregard the misinformation and disinformation. This IS a big deal. That gold and silver have barley budged while the U.S. stock market has rallied back to unchanged should surprise no one. MOPE and manipulation at its finest worst. Remember, at this critical time, gold (and silver) cannot be perceived to be a safe haven and a viable alternative to fiat currency....particularly fiat currency held within the confines of the banking system. With counterparty risk, negative interest rates and now "shared bail-ins", why would any sensible person continue to store wealth in fiat currency? At all cost, gold must be suppressed in order to promote the impression that it is equally unable to preserve wealth. Do not be fooled by this! Global demand remains extraordinarily strong. Fiat-conversion price will, very soon, begin to reflect this physical demand.
Finally, regarding Cyprus, this article from Ben Davies at Hinde Capital is terrific, written not only from a current, but also a historical sense. Please take the time to read through it. http://www.hindecapital.com/blog/cyprus-oh-the-irony/
And we must touch upon the GLD again today. Remember, the conventional thinking among mainstream analysts is that GLD is seeing a drawdown due to investor selling and asset re-allocation. You and I both know that this is complete nonsense and that GLD gold is being redeemed and withdrawn by large investors seeking immediate allocation and physical delivery.
Well, the mainstream narrative took a major hit yesterday. In the face of Cyprus, fiat and ECB distrust and a rising gold price, GLD had redemptions of 13.55 metric tonnes or more than 1% of the alleged "inventory"!! This brings the "total gold in trust" down to under 1220 mts, down from 1350 mts a/o 1/1/13. One hundred thirty metric tonnes, nearly 10% of "inventory", has been withdrawn since the first of the year. http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/
As I go to close, I see that gold is surging to new highs for the week. This is constructive but, again, I caution you...I see no reason to get overly-excited until gold moves through and closes above $1626, which is the low of the post New Year decline back in January and the break down point from the Chinese New Year raids. Above that level and the smarty-pant, momo-chasing spec shorts will begin to get vehwy, vehwy, nuhvuss.

Silver is rallying, too, but still unable to draw away from $29 and, like gold, until it breaks back above $29.40 or so, it's still simply banging around within the range.

Finally, I just checked ZH to see if I've missed anything while typing. Not much. Only all of this. Remember, this is simply a "one-off" and "no big deal".
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-contagion-spreading-greek-bonds-plunge-most-bailout
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/germany-enters-grace-bull-liquidating-cyprus-china-shop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/former-cyprus-central-bank-head-slams-blackmailing-european-leaders
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-finance-minister-resigns
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-now-set-vote-against-bailout-ruling-party-abstain-guaranteeing-failure-ratify
Have a great day and remember that the FOMC is meeting this week and Fedlines are due tomorrow. Keep your helmet and airsickness bag handy.
TF

Just A Reminder

TUESDAY, JUNE 14, 2011

WE'VE MOVED!!!

At long last, the new home for TF Metals Report is ready!

Before you head there, however, please take time to watch this informative video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5W9ATVcXL0

OK, click the link below and you'll be directed to our new site.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com

See you there!! TF

Sick of Outages

This sucks and I'm getting tired of it.
Apparently the site has crashed again. Here are two charts.

I think I'll take the rest of the day off. Sorry for the inconvenience, everyone. TF

Discrepancy

Two of these charts just ain't like the others. Two of these charts just ain't quite the same.

Actually, crude is now UP 40 cents.

Combine this with what we know from our loyal Turdite regarding JPM indiscriminately dumping 10,000 contracts of gold in two minutes this morning.

Clearly this was a coordinated attack, meant to create the cascading waterfall which ensued.

1705 and 34 are still holding, however, and must be watched closely for clues as to whether or not there is more bullshit to come.

TF

Bots and EE Simultaneously Attack

First of all, I greatly apologize for the site being down yet again. I enrolled yesterday in the site "Alexa" with surveys the site and measures the traffic. Perhaps the overload of traffic that is crashing the site is due to an initial Alexa survey? Maybe. Of course, when the crash of the site coincides perfectly with a crash in gold and silver, it sure makes me wonder.

The reason given for the smash of gold and silver is the testimony of The Bernank. Hmmmm. Of course, stocks aren't down very much. Hmmmm. Look, Santa has warned us repeatedly that there is extreme volatility coming. Today's action is certainly a part of that trend. If you can't stomach the volatility, I suggest you completely avoid trading and only use the big dips like today for adding to your stack.

That said, I guess we now know what the EE has been planning to do with all of their leased silver. Lost in the madness of yesterday was a drop in the 1-month rate to -0.48%. Since we've been discussing this possible "raid" indicator here for weeks, today's drop should really come as no surprise. Let's see now if $34-34.50 can hold. I suspect that it might not. $33 will be a possible floor as that is a significant level and it would represent a roughly 10% drop from the highs of yetserday. Even $31 is not out of the question, though.

Gold is getting punished, too, but should find a solid floor between 1680 and 1705.

Please be patient and try to keep your wits about you. Silver is going much, much higher from here. Later this week, we will discuss some extraordinary, new fundamentals that will drive prices. I know it's tough but try to hang in there and enjoy the ride.  TF