The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.
First! Lol! :-)Posting here from no man's land as the site is currently down for myself off and on all morning.It's seems kind of weird being on here bit it also seems oddly comfortable as so much goodwill and original thought was provoked and stimulated here when the market scene was different and the miners were smoking.Were those the good old days? Time will tell.
Site is killing me. Up. Down. Up. Down. Hopefully up again soon.
I hear ya' TF. You probably want to pull your hair out. Have you dislodged your fist from your monitor yet? Lol!It might be a good idea to remind folks when the site goes down to congregate here. It might actually be fun on some level.I'm looking forward to the site changes you spoke of earlier. Hang tough!
Posting some thoughts here.I mentioned over the weekend that gold/silver don't seem be to correlating to much of anything lately and that it might take a jolt from oil to start moving things along.So here we are with a jolt in oil that precipitated the move early this a.m. in gold.The other obvious thing I'm looking at is that all the major bond prices are moving down in unison. This very odd and abnormal imho and taken as a whole I'm speculating something is about to noticeably change going forward if the bond/oil=gold movement continues in this odd correlation going on right now.When oil Or hold bonds or notes etc. start to happen it'll make the price of oil noticeably and steadily jump in USD.I'm not sure that's what I'm seeing right now from the very beginning but it's what I'm thinking.
Ooooooweeeee, what up with dat. I got a gap. ($28.91)
"Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends...step inside, step inside."Never a dull moment at TFMR and in cyber-land these days. It's actually pretty incredible that things work as smoothly as they do.I still see gold correlating to oil right now. Today at least.
Turd,Site has started asking me id/Password, looks like your Admins are still hard at work.What's going on ?GS_PHYS
It's too bad that more folks don't know about or use this old blogspot site during outage times.BTW, has anybody been following Eric De Groot lately? He's got some very interesting analysis, and is starting to see an end to this madness from "the invisible hand", using his DI (diffusion indexes).http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2013/03/end-of-bearish-operation-in-gold.html
Wow, almost never post, but Turd is a daily must read as much for comments as for reading Turd's wisdom.Had serious symptoms of near drug withdrawal when the site started asking for passwords and such before even letting me on...and even then couldn't log on.I'm getting better nowCrambo
My server company attempted an "update" last night. It must have seriously Fd up a bunch of sites because we are unable to get through to them or get them to call us back.The password thingy is Ron and Steph trying to fix it on their own.Hang in there. Hopefully back up soon.
Ouch Lots of outages today. Darned frustrating for us all and I'm sure Turd is the most frustrated of anyone. We really do need to have a 'Bug-out' location to communicate .. I guess this is it!
Ah, finally found my friends:)
Reach West....I think you've just unofficially made this our virtual bug out spot.I've given that idea some thought before that could add a whole other level of fun or interest in TFMR at some point seeing as how the site is more then just a PM/preparedness site.It's also a social media website and the concept of some type of virtual animated village community (like a Zynga concept) that is a virtual bug out community that uses our avatars or usernames seems possible.Admittedly this is an abstract approach to making the site more fun essentially when things get a bit tedious or market negative on all of us. The bug out village game would need its own forum and it would give folks a place to socialize or play at something that is somewhat related to the theme of the site overall.It would keep people engaged and give them another reason to stay on-site and it would appeal to and draw another type of crowd to the site once the word got out.In a social media intensive society it seems getting lost in some virtual PM/Prep Zynga like game would be extremely appealing.The thought of specific virtual games that appeal to other tastes like gun advocates or alternative theories etc. would serve as a magnet in that respect and give folks a place to vent or interact in whatever unmoderated way they feel comfortable in.All of that might sound silly but if you think about it from the perspective of drawing traffic and keeping people on-site it makes sense and would be do unique I'm almost positive it would be a hit even if it was just out of curiousity.There's a reason why Dungeons & Dragons etc. is so popular. A virtual bug out village that kind of mimics Survivor that is laced with modern economic or geo-political scenarios sounds like a potentially good revenue making idea that no one else online in the hold/silver community could match.
i actually checked to see if i read the FED calendar wrong and ben was speaking.
Can you tell I miss the 'edit' feature or what? Sorry for the spelling and fat finger typing from my tablet :-(
Since stocks have been running contrary to metals the bonds seem to be a reasonable confirmation for the action today, although with triple witching this Friday, the wild week is far from over.
Hi guys. Test message from Opticsguy
wow that was easy....NOT do we really have to prove we aren't machines for every post
So are Turd's server guys "fer er agin" him. Holy cow!
does anybody know whats going on?
what did silver surfer do now? sarc
i am still working out the kinks
Swap Traders Seeking Help In exiting Positions Under Dodd-FrankNew rules mandating that swaps be backed by clearinghouses and executed on regulated systems are complicating investors’ ability to exit the derivatives trades, according to money manager AllianceBernstein Holding LP.Regulation created by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act will require that most swaps be traded on exchanges or similar electronic systems known as swap-execution facilities. Investors who want to terminate contracts that are no longer the most actively traded, such as a five-year interest-rate swap with only three and a half years left before expiration, are still required to use those systems rather than negotiate a price directly with dealers as they typically would.“A lot of real-money, buy-side trading practices have been ignored in this process,” James Wallin, senior vice president at AllianceBernstein in New York, said in a telephone interview. How investors can terminate trades in compliance with the Dodd- Frank Act “is a crucial step in building something that addresses all of the trading needs,” he said. “Essentially it’s only a complete market once you have this.”TrueEX Group LLC, an interest-rate swap exchange in New York, will begin testing its Portfolio Termination and Compactions service this week, which aims to allow investors to electronically offset their cleared swaps in clearinghouses owned by CME Group Inc. (CME) and LCH.Clearnet Group Ltd., Sunil Hirani, chief executive officer of trueEX, said in a telephone interview.“It’s needed because the participants spend way too much time terminating swaps,” he said. “It’s operationally inefficient and prone to errors.” In the privately-negotiated market, investors send a spreadsheet with the transactions they want to terminate to one or several dealer banks.Reforms related to swap-execution facilities and other changes to the $639 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market will be discussed this week in Boca Raton, Florida, at the annual conference of the Futures Industry Association. Executives from BlackRock Inc., Nasdaq OMX Group and Vanguard Group, as well as Hirani, are expected to speak in panel discussions.Under the new regulations, the process for exiting a portfolio of such trades should be similar to how block futures trades are negotiated off exchange, Hirani said.“Long-term, traders should be able to terminate specific trades in a clearinghouse by using the trade identifier rather than having to offset the transaction with a new trade,” Matt Scott, a trader at AllianceBernstein in New York, said in a telephone interview. “Terminating trades will allow us to reduce the number of line items we have,” Scott said.The CFTC and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are writing Dodd-Frank rules for swap execution facilities that compete with exchanges, including those operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange Inc., for trading of interest rate, credit and other swaps. The rules are meant to reduce risk and boost transparency after largely unregulated swaps helped fuel the 2008 credit crisis.The five-member CFTC has been negotiating since late last year on final regulations for trading platforms. The agency has yet to schedule a vote on the rules to govern trades by firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)Investors may also get better prices to terminate cleared swaps if large trades are treated as blocks as in the futures market, Scott said.“We think they’ve done a good job of constructing a rubric for it, and we are looking forward to seeing this functionality elsewhere,” Wallin said of trueEX’s termination service.Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, has said it intends to register with the CFTC as a swap-execution facility.
Something potentially huge resides somewhere within that article.I'm not sure how swaps exactly work as its very complicated stuff on the level they are talking about it reads like a potential exit door for he cartel if it's implemented.
how do we update the this site
Ron and Steph still working on the problem.This sucks.
I feel like I'm back on my windows 95
I've got faith in you guys, you'll figure it out.
I think the longer this TFMR outage persists - the more apparent it is that we may actually have to have a backup Turdville communications strategy in place. I mean if TFMR were down and some minor SHTF event was taking place, we would lose the group-think that is so valuable in Turdville. Yup - this does suck.
Now if I could just figure out how to upload my avatar, I could move in here and feel right at home. I'll work on that what you guys keep trying to fix the real site.
When the main site is prompting me for a password, in a dialogue box I don't recognise, I just decline.So, the metals; I wasn't expecting any action till next week (following Argentus' timelines). So we had a little burp today to remind us that they are still alive and kicking. I guess this is where the volatility will come from; if they try to melt up, they will be met with ferocious counter attack. Meanwhile, HUI is slogging upwards ;-)
As a backup strategy, this actually seems to be working. yes, this sucks, it's like having your brand-new Cadillac Escalade in the shop for repairs, and having to resort to a 20-year-old Yugo to get where you need to go. Fortunately, as far as the news is concerned, there isn't all that much to talk about today. Same old, same old. Working on a backup plan is a great subject. I'm working on it.:)
Worst case scenario is that gold and silver go ballistic and the sites down while it's going on. Luckily that's not the case today. I'm confident this will all get ironed out and in truth whatever fixes they're trying to do or look at gives them the time right now to try smooth the sites wrinkles out lately.Otherwise, even if it isn't optimal right now, I'm kind of digging it being back in 'the library'.In the beginning it all started here and now here we are back 'home'. It's feels comfortable.
HAS RON AND STEPH TRIED TO PING THE SERVER?
Never had a blogger account before, and after several failed attempts at uploading an avatar, I think my daughter might have broken the code. She always does.
Yes, we are back where it started and so is the price. May as well complete the hat-trick and move back in with my parents. I believe my Atari 2600 complete with Pitfall is still in their attic.
The 'Calvin" is relatively stronger then some might think it deserves to be but compared to a bunch of other weaker currencies it's still the strongest gorilla in the room.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Money flows to U.S. stocks from Europe show why the dollar could keep gainingMarch 12, 2013, 5:44 PM. For an indication of future U.S. dollar strength, it’s worth looking at equity-related inflows, which have seen a pickup this year, Nomura told clients on Tuesday. Equity inflows to the U.S. over the past three to six months have increased, with leading indicators for January and February confirming sizeable inflows seen in official data during the fourth quarter, Nomura’s global head of G10 currency strategy Jens Nordvig wrote in a report. Much of the movement has been driven by flows from the troubled euro zone, followed by the U.K. The outlook for the U.K. economy dimmed further on Tuesday after a government report showed industrial production logged a 1.2% monthly fall in January, and manufacturing output dropped 1.5%. Separately, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated a contraction in U.K. output in February. Nomura estimated foreign inflows into U.S. equities may be between $100 billion to $150 billion this year, compared with $62 billion in 2012 and a decline of $47 billion in 2011. From “a longer-term perspective, we think the flow story is improving meaningfully, which should support the USD over time,” he wrote. U.S. stocks have climbed this year, bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA+0.02% to new record highs, and the S&P 500 index SPX-0.24% closer to its all-time high. At the same time, the dollar, which tends to weaken when risk appetite grows, has strengthened since early January, and its gains have come in the backdrop of ongoing and aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The different impact on commodity and gold markets and bottoming of real rates in the U.S. TIPS market indicate the impact of the Fed’s third program of asset purchases “has been different in this round of easing,” wrote Nordvig. Still, there should be caution in dismissing the impact of quantitative easing on the dollar, he said, in part because weaker economic data in the second quarter could bolster expectations that QE will last for a longer amount of time. “All told, we are very focused on the changing flow picture, especially evidence of strong ‘risk’ flows into the US,” Nordvig wrote. “Over time, we think this could be important for dollar direction and correlation structures.” Nomura plans to revisit its longer-term global dollar forecasts over the next few weeks. The dollar index DXY-0.03%,which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, is up 3.5% this year. It settled Tuesday’s session at around 82.567. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/12/money-flows-to-u-s-stocks-from-europe-show-why-the-dollar-could-keep-gaining/
Martin Armstrong is saying that the bull in equities has a lot further to run. He says it isn't a bull market till it is reflected in every currency, and that the Dow & S&P are going to keep on going up.We'll make a mental note, and watch how it pans out.http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/05/the-dow-high-nobody-believes/
West 'looking for China to play greater role'The West is expecting China, under its new leadership, to play a greater world role as Beijing's involvement is essential in resolving the economic downturn and creating new order for the global financial system, according to former French prime minister Michel Rocard. "Dysfunction of the current world financial system is so deep that the classic recipes do not work. The West cannot conduct strategies to resolve the economic crisis without the Chinese," Rocard told China Daily.He was speaking while observing the ongoing National People's Congress in Beijing, which will elect the new State leadership. Rocard said China already has about 9 to 10 percent of world trade and he thinks the figure will double in 10 years. He added that the country will be the most active player in international organizations such as the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund. Rocard said China is shouldering increasing international responsibility and could contribute substantially to the improvement of world governance. "My wish is that China's new leadership can acknowledge it and act," he said. While European governments are looking for more investment from China to help regenerate growth and jobs, China is experiencing an economic transformation with a focus on consumption and sustainability, for which Europe has rich experience to share. Rocard said, "So there is a fantastic opportunity for Mr Xi Jinping and China's new leadership to explain to the Chinese people that Europe and China share a common future." Rocard, 83, served as French prime minister from 1988 to 1991 under the presidency of Francois Mitterrand. He is also the co-founder of the China-Europe Forum, a platform for dialogue among European and Chinese officials and scholars, initiated in 2005. He has been a frequent visitor to China, demonstrating his keen interest in what is happening in the country. While applauding the nation's rapid development, Rocard warned about real estate bubbles and relying too heavily on exports, which could endanger China's economy. "China can no longer play the card of exports," he said. "The problem you face is to redirect your economy toward internal demand and to create a mechanism for that."http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-03/12/content_16300660.htm
The DOC says JPM Chase has been hacked.....!
Nigel (for tonight) is actually Ned Braden
I just pinged the servers and all 4 are up and running. Seems to be a comunication of program sync problem.
Main site is back up. Bollocks is first!
tfmetals is back up great job Rob and Steph
We're Back In The Saddle Again...see you there.
here we go again
And I've got a new post I'm ready to put up but can't because the site is down...again.
I realize this is a fairly isolated incident among the server(s) the site uses.But there is a growing part of me that seriously thinks much of the US's computer or internet system has been breached in a big way by the Chinese with a virus of some type.That doesn't seem far-fetched at this point from everything I've been reading recently.There was an article in Reuters yesterday I think that was about how the Chinese would like to discuss cyber security with the US soon.Might it be from a position of strength?
Heck, do it here TF! Let's go old school: the books wallpaper, the sharpie, dollar a day moves in silver... it'll be just like March 2011 again.Now all we need is Atlee to make a guest appearance, Afrum to blast out a "shite hot molten silver melting paper shorts" post, and we will be good to go. Let's make lemonade, people!
Agree with that.I have no problem with this and making lemonade as P4 said.A whiskey sour sounds even better :-)
There might only be 4 of us commenting on the new post, but why not?
It would appear that TF metals has crashed again. I'm beginning to think that this has a lot more to do with the “endgame”, then just a simple server problem with TF metals. We'll see.
Oh - here we all are - again.I just took a break from my writing to check TFMR and I see that we're down again. Frustrating. Oh well. This secret bug-out hideaway seems like fun. I don't have much to say... just stopping by.I'll have one of this Whisky Sour's, if you're mixing DPH!
Re the TFMR "disruption". From Stephanie earlier...I'm not the server expert that Ron is, but I was looking through the server logs today when the site crashed briefly and saw someone repeatedly trying to FTP into the server over and over again. There's also been a huge spike in server bandwidth being used. I have a ticket in to make sure it's not just the server guys doing something on their end...or sometimes, hackers sneak into a server and run an FTP service to share videos and porn or whatever right under your nose! (I don't think it's that, but having LiquidWeb check it out is not a bad idea).I don't want to feed into unnecessary paranoia, because as I've mentioned before, there are tons of spambots roving the Internet just looking for servers to abuse...but I am also curious, and definitely feel you should keep your eyes peeled, for any threatening emails. I remember that guy from last year...I don't remember his name...and he threatened to hack into and take down the site if he was kicked off of it. It's most likely not something like that, but if you do get any emails that are threatening, you should let us know immediately.ThanksSteph
And this is interesting:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-13/cftc-investigating-london-gold-silver-price-fixing-manipulation
Sites down right now.I read Stephanie's post today and I went back and started looking at some of the threads before the "Sequestration Silliness' thread you had a couple weeks .That's when this started in earnest and when admin. first brought up the point about youtuve vid bandwidth issue's possibly but it turned out not to be thta by admin.'s own admission later and the spambot came to light.Whatever happened, if it was on site, I think would've been something that happened (wth a vid posted) or someone who might've gotten a hard time on the site and maybe got a little vengeful.That's just a guess and has no basis in anything but I started looking for instances where someone got weird on there or nasty. (besides me...lol)My opinion above on the internet and all computer systems being bugged or being heavily scanned remains at the top of my list given all the cyber warfare stuff I read in the new.I hope the site gets fixed soon because I have a doozy of a news artcile to post we've been waiting on regarding currencies.Keeping the suspense alive for now :-)
trying this at home.....and i am not a professional
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Good morning "Turdville".It would appear that the site is down again. The reliability issues are probably being intentionally undermined. There is just too much truth going around on the site.There is an all-out assault on the precious metals investor, and anything that can be done to discourage them is being done, in every way possible.As with everything else, complexity has its drawbacks. TF metals report is a wonderful community, who seeks to uncover the truth, and there are some very powerful entities who are committed to making sure that only propaganda is available.Hopefully, the shear simplicity of this site (The Watchtower) will be able to keep it alive.I have a full day of work ahead of me,I hope you all have a nice day.:)
LCK here... site always down when I have time to catch up... sigh:-(
Greetings, just checking in, but I see the site has been taken down yet again. Just wanted to thank AlexCoJones if he is reading this. On March 1 I posted a cute pic of my daughter on her birthday. Some of the Turdites sent very nice private messages and made comments on Turd's blog.Alex CoJones was touched deepply enough that he generously mailed my daughter a package containing a bunch of kid's jewelry. She loved it! She had such a good time sorting through it all, I need to have her put it all on and make a photo of her to post on Turd's blog.Thank you Alex and all the other the terrific, bright commenters!-Mammoth
Morning all - I think someone needs to check to see if Trader Dan hired a hacker team to take down tfmetals. jes sayin
erewenguy.....Lol! I know TF's not laughing over any of this but some of you are sooo randomly funny. Love it!The sites server seems to have some serious issues. It's at times like this I wish I was a seriously wealthy person and I could gift a server to TF for his sole dedicated use.
Sorry for the continued issues but we're working on it and the site should be back up soon. Until then, how about the STAUNCH defense of 1600 and 29??
Thank goodness for this virtual bug out spot, as DPH said. Oh well, let's all hope the regular site is fixed soon.Meanwhile, does anyone else find it coincidental that Santa's prediction is for lift off by end of month, and now TF's site goes all haywire? Just saying. . .
Knock, knock, knocking on 1600's door.Santa has been quite vocal for the past few weeks. I don't recall seeing him on KWN particularly often in the past - once a year maybe - now he's been on there several times in the last couple of weeks. That alone seems to be an indicator of something!
Also - I see this .. which is gonna light an even bigger fire in MENA:AP has this story "Israel’s military intelligence chief says Syria’s embattled president, Bashar Assad, is preparing to use chemical weapons"What a mess.
Howdy CA and RW...just like old times. I kind of like it but not at the expense or stress of TF and admin. etc.1600 & 29 are like brick walls at the moment and it can't stay that way forever.And yes, Assad will never go gently into the night. As we are currently witnessing the guy would rather rule over rubble then leave with an intact country.The magnet that Syria has become is troubling due to Russia's presence and also the diversity of rebels from far abroad that are there to fight the West, Assad or Russia in no particular order.
Yes, DPH, a nice retro feel, I like it.Anyhow, I cannot get my head around the solid defense of silver at or around $29.00. What the hell?Obviously there is a clear pattern. Obviously, silver cannot go higher, due to capping. Obviously, this "paper" silver is being bought heavily on the beat downs, so why is it so relentlessly being capped right here, at this price, for so long?Is there something magic about the $30 level? Is it the psychological level of $30 that makes for such an important price target?I give up. I really do not care about price anyhow. But, it is very enlightening to see this price action which we all see is definitively being capped right here in real time.Oh well, back to work.
Good morning....Just checking in here this a.m. after seeing the site is down temporarily.Anyone know how much a new server costs? With so many Turdites out there it almost seems possible for everyone if possible to chip in and get a new one.If it costs $100,000 and there are 1,000 of us it would cost $100 a piece one time.Count me in.If you double the number of people it halves and so on etc. A $50,000 server with however many people onboard dramatically lowers each persons contribution. Count me in if it's a one time donation towards it.Like I said, I have no idea how much a server costs but my idea seems very possible if were talking $100,000 or less.I'll go as high as $100 for myself personally as the cost (or dare I say frustration?) of spending $100 equates to less then $0.30 a day over one year to make sure that TF and TFMR are online and running strong.If you think of it in those terms its peanuts. Having the site up and running everyday is much bigger then those peanuts.I'll look into how much a server costs just for the heck of. Anything above $100,000 renders this idea a moot point.
I didn't realize the avatar fix request would bring it down. My bad.In all seriousness, I really do believe the alt media attacks and escalating geo events are related. How can you not? Something wicked this way comes.
So site is still down I guess.
Dang it - looks like TFMR is offline yet again.
Looks like I've broken the site again. All I did was try to post a headline, and a link, about Rand Paul returning $600,000.00 of taxpayer money. Linked from NPR, no less:)
this is getting ridiculous