Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Sick of Outages

This sucks and I'm getting tired of it.
Apparently the site has crashed again. Here are two charts.
I think I'll take the rest of the day off. Sorry for the inconvenience, everyone. TF

Wednesday, February 29, 2012


Two of these charts just ain't like the others. Two of these charts just ain't quite the same.

Actually, crude is now UP 40 cents.

Combine this with what we know from our loyal Turdite regarding JPM indiscriminately dumping 10,000 contracts of gold in two minutes this morning.
Clearly this was a coordinated attack, meant to create the cascading waterfall which ensued.
1705 and 34 are still holding, however, and must be watched closely for clues as to whether or not there is more bullshit to come.

Bots and EE Simultaneously Attack

First of all, I greatly apologize for the site being down yet again. I enrolled yesterday in the site "Alexa" with surveys the site and measures the traffic. Perhaps the overload of traffic that is crashing the site is due to an initial Alexa survey? Maybe. Of course, when the crash of the site coincides perfectly with a crash in gold and silver, it sure makes me wonder.

The reason given for the smash of gold and silver is the testimony of The Bernank. Hmmmm. Of course, stocks aren't down very much. Hmmmm. Look, Santa has warned us repeatedly that there is extreme volatility coming. Today's action is certainly a part of that trend. If you can't stomach the volatility, I suggest you completely avoid trading and only use the big dips like today for adding to your stack.

That said, I guess we now know what the EE has been planning to do with all of their leased silver. Lost in the madness of yesterday was a drop in the 1-month rate to -0.48%. Since we've been discussing this possible "raid" indicator here for weeks, today's drop should really come as no surprise. Let's see now if $34-34.50 can hold. I suspect that it might not. $33 will be a possible floor as that is a significant level and it would represent a roughly 10% drop from the highs of yetserday. Even $31 is not out of the question, though.

Gold is getting punished, too, but should find a solid floor between 1680 and 1705.

Please be patient and try to keep your wits about you. Silver is going much, much higher from here. Later this week, we will discuss some extraordinary, new fundamentals that will drive prices. I know it's tough but try to hang in there and enjoy the ride.  TF

Friday, February 3, 2012

Backup Post

Just in case the site goes down again, here is a reprint of the main post from today:

Getting Caught Up

After yesterday's nefarious activities, I had hoped to create a lengthy, comprehensive post for you this morning. The BLSBS has gotten in the way and, since things are moving so quickly, I figured I'd better just post what I have and worry about going into detail over the weekend.
Before we get started, thank you all for your patience in dealing with the nonsense of yesterday. The attacks continue today but Ron and Stephanie have battled through the night (seriously, I don't think that either of them slept) to get the site back up. Their efforts are greatly appreciated and, since their efforts aren't inexpensive, all of those who have donated to the "TFMR DoS Defense Fund" are greatly appreciated, as well. We don't know for certain who is behind these attacks but we have our suspicions. I, for one, would like to bring in the FBI and/or Interpol but, apparently they're a little busy. Maybe we can simply organize some type of TFMR Goon Squad to go have a "visit" with the perpetrator. wink
OK, first the BLSBS. All you really need to know can be found at ZeroHedge. (What else is new?) Go there to find the truth. Here is just one of the links:
Additionally, in the spirit of seeking the truth through the manipulation and the propaganda, you are really going to enjoy the next podcast. I recorded it yesterday and it is quite timely. It will be posted later this afternoon so please be sure to check back later or over the weekend.
Here are the only charts that matter. When reviewing them it is critical that you remember this:
I am diligently following the daily changes to open interest in the precious metals. In doing so, it has become quite clear that there is very little, regular trading left in the PMs. All we have are The Cartel and the EE alternately covering and adding shorts as well as some HFT WOPRs that swing back and forth depending upon which way the POSX is moving. This is a double-edged sword.
  • This makes movements in the PMs even more easy to predict than usual.
  • This also brings significantly greater volatility which can wipe you out fast if you're not careful.
Anyone attempting to trade (and I do not encourage it) must trade cautiously and use well-defined stops.
To that end, let's start with the POSX charts. It looks like The Pig has, in fact, found a short-term bottom this time. I thought it had double-bottomed at 79 earlier this week. Instead, it has formed a rounded bottom. Nevertheless, you can clearly see on the one-year daily chart that 79 functions well as a technical support level...at least for now. I still have a hunch, however, that Pigatha will soon head even lower, toward 78 and maybe even 77.
Next is gold. Unfortunately, the trend from last Wednesday's FOMC minutes is now broken. Oh well. It had to happen sometime. As you can clearly see, however, gold could fall quite a ways from here and still NOT violate its trend from 1/1/12. In the end, all is well. QE is going to infinity. BTFD.
Lastly, silver might actually be in a tradable position. Maybe. I still think that the real Battle Royale will be at 35-35.50. IF that's the case, then it may be possible to trade some March calls from 33.25-50 up to 35-35.50. Maybe. Again, trade at your own risk and be on guard for some nasty volatility, to the UPside and the downside.
OK, I'm going to stop there, cross my fingers and toes, and pray that when I hit "SAVE" that this post actually appears on "Main Street" and simply doesn't disappear into the ether. Thanks again to all who have donated in support of the Tech Team and security improvements. Be sure to check back later this afternoon or over the weekend for a great and timely podcast. Have a fun day!!  TF

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Chart Update

The Tech Team is still working with the server company to blunt and stop the continued DoS attacks. In the meantime, at least we have this backup platform to utilize.

I'll keep this brief. I had tried to buy back my Mar $35 silver call today but I never got filled. Nuts! I thought I might on the pullback late morning but it never happened. I was looking to buy it back because I'm expecting a decent UP day tomorrow, post the BLSBS.

I may still get another chance. If tomorrow plays out like your typical BLSBS day, the metals will surge in the moments right after the numbers are released. They will then get hammered back about 15 minutes later before reversing course and heading higher. Now that 1750 and 34 have fallen, the next targets are The Battle Royale. 

Gold is head to the area around 1770-80 where it will encounter the downsloping trendline from the September highs. Silver is headed to 35.50 or so where it will also encounter stiff resistance. With a lousy BLSBS number, both metals may reach these levels by tomorrow.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, these two charts are the only ones that matter right now. Both metals are trending higher post the FOMC "announcements" last week. Look for these trends to continue.

I'll let you know via twitter when the site is back up. Until then, enjoy blogspot!  TF

Denial of Service

For all who might be wondering, the site is currently being maliciously attacked by someone or something. The common term for this is a "Denial of Service" attack whereby the site is shut down by an overload of requests for access. The servers get overwhelmed and the result is a site shutdown.

Who is doing this and why are the questions we are trying to answer. In the meantime, please keep checking the site to see if it has come back up. Hopefully, by later today, we'll get back to business.

On a side note, you've surely noticed that silver has finally smashed through $34. With the BLSBS coming out tomorrow, I expect this rally to continue, probably all the way to heavy resistance between 35 and 35.50. Gold has broken out to and should continue rallying all the way to the major downtrend resistance line, somewhere near 1780.

Thanks for your patience. TF