Tuesday, June 14, 2011


At long last, the new home for TF Metals Report is ready!

Before you head there, however, please take time to watch this informative video:


OK, click the link below and you'll be directed to our new site.


See you there!! TF

Almost Ready

The new site is ready. The programmers are simply cleaning it up and removing test content. Keep checking back today.

Both PMs have found support in the areas where we would have expected it to materialize. Gold near 1515 and silver near 34.20. The support is nice to see but I wouldn't get too excited about it yet.

Gold gives us a clear range to watch bordered by 1512 on the bottom and 1525 on the top. A breach of either will provide us with some short term direction.
Silver is similar with a range between 34.40 and 35.20.

One interesting thing to watch is Ole DrC. Nothing to get excited about just yet but definitely something to keep an eye on.
I'll be sure to post a link on this site when the new site is ready.
Thanks for your patience. TF

The new site is almost ready for you. I'm currently uploading an introductory video and performing some other "housekeeping" tasks. None of this will take longer than two hours so please check back to this current site and you'll find all the directions/instructions in a new post I will have for you by 5:00 EDT. Thanks! TF

Monday, June 13, 2011

Just Mucking Fugly

Wow, what a brutal day this has been. It now appears certain that silver will not reach 42-43 before first notice day. That pick is going to end up costing The Turd a lot of money. I'm very sorry if it has negatively impacted your account, as well. The obliteration of Friday and today has caught me by complete surprise. Just another reason to leave the day-to-day trading of these "markets" to us poor, addicted gambling fools and, instead, confine yourself to the regular, slow accumulation of physical metal.

To that end, the new site is almost ready. Technically, it's finished but I still have to learn how to do my postings as well as craft some introductory messages. I may still get all this done by later today but I don't know if I'll make it. I'll keep you posted.

Let's start with gold. It has broken through the primary trendline which dates all the way back to Turd's Bottom in January. A couple of things:
1) It has done this before and recovered so its not the end of the trend...yet...though it might be.
2) The trend was/is going to end soon, anyway.
As stated in the "roadmap" and often since, gold was seasonally due to peak in June and then trade sideways through the summer. I strongly suspect that these "doldrums" have now begun and that gold will be rangebound, roughly between 1460 and 1550 until mid to late August.

Silver looks awful. Take a look at this dreary, ugly 15-minute chart:
And having broken down through the pennant we've been watching since last week, silver looks set to drop to at least 34, if not 33. Yuck.
Registered silver at The Comex is at only 28MM ounces, enough to physically settle just 5600 contracts but who cares? It doesn't seem to matter right now. All that matters is this mistaken belief that QE is ending for good in 17 days. Whatever.
Silver, too, now looks rangebound for the summer, bounded by maybe 31-32 on the downside and 37-38 on the upside.

Crude stinks, too, but it still has some support left. Take a look at this chart and be sure to note the quick, snap-back rallies that have occurred from the $96 level.
If our esteemed and highly experienced Chief Executive gets his way and crude moves lower, look for very strong support to emerge between $90 and $92.

Thanks again for hanging in there and patiently awaiting the new site. As I publish this, my next call is to one of the developers so she can teach my how to write these posts on the site.

Again, I'm very sorry that silver failed to make $42. It's a real drag but we live to fight another day. For now, preserve capital and maybe take the summer off from trading. Get ready for happier times in the fall. TF

Late Night With Sweetness

After a late night during which my buddy, Sweetness, filled The Turd with Hendrick's gin and Pine Ridge wine, The Turd is moving a bit slowly this morning. Coffee helps, however.

Accordingly, since I am away from my hidden bunker, I am unable to post charts this morning. I'll have a full update for you later today.

Gold bottomed overnight near 1525. Again, if we're going to see another stab at 1550, we really need to see 1520-25 hold as support. IF it fails, I think we can be quite confident that the "summer doldrums" will have officially begun...a rangebound trade between 1460 and 1550 until late summer/early fall.

The silver chart does not look good at all. A break of the lows from 6/3 at 35.06 would be a very bad sign so that level must be watched very closely.

At least the stockmarket is called higher and crude is firming up so maybe the PMs can reverse and put a little distance between themselves and those critical support levels. Keep your fingers crossed but stay diligent.

Have a great day! TF

Friday, June 10, 2011

Nuts, Not Today

I really, really wanted to open the new site this afternoon but I just got off the phone with my web developers and, unfortunately, there are still several kinks/bugs that need to be worked out. They've promised me, however, that we are a GO for Monday launch. Thank you for your patience.

I had sincerely hoped for a launch today, mainly because of this:
Amazingly, calling a bottom and then having gold move from 1315 to 1577 is not enough for some people. I've got an idea...if you don't like it, you can kiss my sweet, hairy...
Oh, how I wanted to open today. Just to piss off the tiny little whiners on that Kitco board and elsewhere. I sure would have liked to have poked them a bit. Maybe ruin their weekend. Darn it all.

Believe me, I would be glad to quit today and go away. Writing 2-3 witty, insightful and interesting blog posts per day is far more challenging than you might think. Extremely time consuming, too. But over the past three months or so, the response from Turdites requesting me to keep the site going has been overwhelming. I've also noticed that the world needs this site far more than I do. Look around, there are no PM-dedicated sites available today that provides the user with quality, non-biased information. None.

Well, there's about to be one...come Monday.
See you then. TF

Our Primate Picassos

If you ever wanted to save a chart for posterity, here is one for you. A perfect, three-stage Cartel raid of the gold Comex.
With nearly infinite, Fed-supplied, taxpayer cash at their disposal, The Cartel can simply overwhelm the public bid whenever they desire. They can't and don't do this everyday as blatant, daily manipulation would draw too much heat and leave them with too sizable of a short position. However, when an operation is needed to clip price or paint a chart, you can bet that The Wicked Witch will spring the monkeys from their cages and send them forth to inflict pain and suffering.

So, what did today's mission accomplish? Take a look at this 4-hour chart:
All that work over the past week suppressing price under 1550 has painted a nearly perfect, head-and-shoulders top on this chart. After waffling a bit yesterday, it is quite clear to me now that gold will be contained by the EE through the summer, in a range from roughly 1460-1550.

Silver still has the potential to break free of its current shackles and run to 42 or 43 by the end of the month but time is, unfortunately, running out. It is still within its pennant formation and may present a buying opportunity around 36 but anyone buying there must have a pretty tight stop. While a break of the pennant to the UPside would indicate a run to 39, 39.50 and even 42, a break to the downside could take it all of the way down to 33. Yikes.

Keep checking back today as we are in the final stages of preparing the new site and I hope to have it ready later on. It's a great new playground for us. Not the fanciest thing ever created but it will widen our conversations and provide some fun, new wrinkles, too.

Hang in there today. TF

I figured some of you might be looking for a crude update.

File these two away for posterity, too.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Jim Rogers on GB

So I'm working out this afternoon and I look up to see Jim Rogers giving a lengthy interview to Glenn Beck. My dear reader, I don't know what you think of Glenn beck and, frankly, I don't really care. However, you should take the time to watch this interview. Rogers is usually interviewed only on the financial networks. There, the questions are often the same and his responses, though genuine, frequently lack candor. In the environment of the Glenn Beck studio and given the time to expand on his beliefs, Rogers shares some opinions that fit right in with our stated mission here. Below is a link to the first segment of the interview. I highly encourage you to go program your DVR to record the replay of the program when it airs again tonight at 2:00 a.m. EDT.

In the metals, gold is quiet but silver looks firmly entrenched above 37.50 and ready to go tackle tough resistance at 38.50-38.85.
If you're wondering...Yes, there's still time for the "roadmap" I gave you three weeks ago to play out.
Remember, our goals are 1560-1580 in gold and 42-43 in silver before the end of June. IF silver can rally tomorrow and finish the week in the vicinity of 38.50, it will be primed to go attack 39.50 next week. It will then pound away on 39.50 and 40 while buying pressure builds as we approach "first notice day". After finally breaking through, we could get a quick burst to 42-43 very easily.

That's it for today.
Turd must rest as tomorrow is a very BIG DAY, not just in the PMs but in all of TurdLand.
See you in the morning. TF

Cartel Cap at $1550 Still In Place

All in all, a very good day for the PMs today.

It is clear to everyone but Ray Charles that The Cartel is making a concerted effort at keeping gold under $1550. Take a look at this weekly chart:
The question is, why?
To me. it's quite clear now. Although overt quantitative easing will eventually continue, The Fed is making every effort to convince the world that it won't. If/when gold closes above 1550, it will quickly move toward a new all-time closing high above $1558. Pretty tough to SPIN a brand new all-time high in gold as somehow indicative of coming austerity and Fed hawkishness.

Silver, though still pennant-bound, is also looking pretty good in the short term. As I type, it is trading in the Globex at 37.54, just 0.08 off of its high. The longer it can stay above 37.50 this afternoon and evening, the greater the chances that silver will jump toward 38.40-50 tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed.

I think you could tell that ole Turd was getting a little nervous yesterday but things are looking quite a bit better today. Let's see what tomorrow brings but, right now, it looks like we'll close out the week on an up note.


p.s. Would someone please sign up to follow TF Metals at Twitter. I'm stuck on 666 followers and its making me a bit uncomfortable...

A Quickie

This post will be brief as I have several other items that I need to be working on this morning.

A couple of quick notes on QE, though. First (I love this one), Bill Gross stated yesterday that there will not be a QE 3.
Gee, since PIMCO is on the record as being net short treasuries, doesn't anyone else see an apparent conflict of interest here? Nothing like talking up your book, huh, Willy?

Next, here's a little story from the Washington Times about the reality of no QE and its effect on rates.

And this is just kind of interesting. I don't believe in the entire top 10 but it may make for a fun discussion.

Here are some charts to watch. Have a great day. I'll have more after the close. TF

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

The HUI Pukey

You do the HUI Pukey and you screw yourself around. That's what it's all about.

I'm sorry. I don't mean to make light of the losses we all are incurring in the pig miners. I guess we should know better. That's what hurts. When you're dealing with market caps between $500MM and $1B, it doesn't take a lot of dough to manipulate things. Oh boy, there I go again, Mr. Evil Conspiracy is in the house. I guess my simple, obtuse little brain can't figure out a way to explain things so I must rely again upon the "evil conspirators" of The Cartel.

Since I'm such a simpleton, maybe some of the MBAs and PhDs in the audience can explain this one to me: Back in 2009 and 2010, Barrick Gold paid nearly $3B to "buy out" all of the hedges on their books.
Apparently, management was so confident that gold was headed higher, they wanted to maximize future profits. They no longer wanted to limit future profits by hedging. At the time, it sure sounded like a great idea. Hmmm. At today's closing price of $44.30, ABX is now at the same price level that it was in November of 2009. Interestingly, in November of 2009, gold traded around $1150. So, in the past 18 months, gold has increased in price by almost 35% yet the now fully-unhedged ABX is unchanged over the same time period. Hmmm. Full disclosure: I do not own a single share of ABX so this is not sour grapes, just an observation and, yes, I know that ABX has a market cap of about $40B.

If Apple can hold the cost of making a MacBook at $400 but, over the course of 18 months, they find that they can increase the retail price of a MacBook from $1150 to $1540, you'd expect their earnings to increase and, with that, a much higher stock price.

If Ford could make a cars for $4000 but, over the course of 18 months, they find that they can increase the retail price of a car from $11,500 to $15,400, you'd expect their earnings to increase and, with that, a much higher stock price.

A miner, however, can hold their costs stable and see the retail cost of the metal skyrocket. Their earnings increase commensurately. What's their reward? Nothing but a bunch of pissed-off shareholders who stomp away in disgust.

Here's a picture of the HUI. You'd think it would find support near 500 but I thought it would stop near 540, too, so what the heck do I know? At this rate, 450 or even 400 may be in the cards.

Lastly, here's just a sampling of some of my favorite miners. There's a oxymoron for you..."favorite miners". Kind of like "favorite punishment" or "most-likable demon". If the PMs have indeed entered their summer doldrums/consolidation, maybe you can put in some stick bids on a good-till-cancelled basis and pick up one of these pigs at a cheap price in a few weeks.

That's it for now. I'm off for more electroshock treatments. More later after I come to. TF

Hoping To Be Wrong

Back on Monday, one of our astute Turdites pointed out that the $/Yen was approaching 80 and that, below there, all risk assets would come under pressure. Astute, indeed.

Under 80, it seems that nearly everyone expects the Bank of Japan to flush trillions of new yen into the market.
Currency traders seem to be trying to front-run this move and have thus bid up the POSX from its lows right at support of 73.51. Having now broken the 2-week downtrend, technical buying may drive Pigatha all the way back up toward 74.50 and even 75.

The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780.

On January 21 with gold at 1346, I wrote this:
Here is the most important paragraph:

"I firmly believe that there is absolutely no reason not to expect the pattern to continue so, follow closely, as this is some pretty complicated math...
20 weeks from this Friday...assuming the lows for this correction are made this week, is 6/10/11.
19 weeks from next Friday...assuming the lows are made next week, is 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1345 puts us at $1614 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1320 puts us at $1584 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
Let's split the difference: $1600 on or before 6/10/11."

August gold actually bottomed at 1314.20 on 1/28. Adding 20% to that number gives us 1577.04. The high (so far) of the August contract came on 5/2 at 1577.70. I'd say that's pretty close. 

Again, if we are now rangebound through the summer and, sometime during the next two months, we retest the low of the range near 1465, then we get this:
1465 + 20% = $1758 December target

And I'll also give you this: The 12/31/10 close of the August contract was 1427.70. The average annual gain for gold since this bull market began back in 2001 has been around 25%.
1427.70 + 25% = $1784 December target

So, again, don't despair when you look at this chart. It is what it is.

Like gold, silver looks somewhat foul. If you're trading, you must watch that lower trendline very closely as a break of it may indicate that a move back toward 34 or even 33 is coming. I'm still hoping for 42-43 before the end of June but this, too, is beginning to look like it has found its "summer range", bounded by 33 at the low end and 39 at the high end.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't take time to thank those who defended me overnight against the continued attacks of Spalding "maradona" Smailes. As you know, I can no longer afford the time and energy it takes to tackle the trolls one by one so I appreciate the help. That said, it's probably best for everyone to simply take the same course and ignore them. Without the attention, they may just drift away.

Hang in there and have a great day! TF

p.s. For those looking for a crude chart this morning, here it is. No change you can believe in.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Waiting For The Bernank

Of course, I have no idea what ole HellyBenny will have to say this afternoon. Because the POSX sits so precariously upon support between 73 and 73.50, I think you have to expect him to try to talk up the dollar. However, as you know, there is reality and there is fantasy. There is fact and there is fiction. There is TRUTH and there is MOPE.

Management of Perception Economics. A term, coined by Santa himself, to describe the idea that by convincing citizens that all is well, all will actually be well. The Bernank's belief in the "Wealth Effect" is proof of his devotion to MOPE.

Fiscal 2011 U.S. Federal Government outlays: $3.6T. Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government revenue: $2.1T. Total Deficit (need to borrow): $1.5T
Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government outlays: $3.75T. Fiscal 2012 U.S. Federal Government revenue:
$2.1T. Total Deficit (need to borrow): $1.65T

1) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
2) Providing free cash for insolvent TBTF/PD banks
3) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
4) Creating the inflation necessary to service existing debts
5) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government
6) Infusing cash into the Primary Dealers which they, in turn, can use to buy S&P futures and prop up the stock market (see "Wealth Effect" above)
7) Funding the deficit spending of the U.S. Federal Government

Before The Bernank, takes the podium, please take a moment to ponder from where the U.S. government will find its $1,650,000,000,000 needed for next year without continued Quantitative Easing.
1) China? Nope.
2) Japan? Good one.
3) Europe? Mmmm, no.
4) The Middle East? Negative.
5) TBTF banks. Jim Rickards says so. He's fooling himself. $1.65T? From the banks? Hahaha.

Be not afraid, my friends. The Bernank and his willing accomplices/stooges in the media may preen and posture all they want but MOPE cannot win long term. MOPE may get them by for a day or a few weeks but TRUTH shall prevail in the end.

Never before have I heard The Bernank take so much time discussing individual commodities. He even mentioned wheat and the drought in Western Kansas, for crying out loud! It seems that The Chairman was taking great measures to shift the blame of commodity cost inflation to supply disruptions and global demand and away from Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Why and why now? To me, The Bernank is again trying to buy himself some time. As stated above, money must continue to be created from thin air if the U.S. Federal Government is going to continue to operate. As austerity is not forthcoming, further quantitative easing is the only possible funding solution. By shifting the blame and focus away from the weakening dollar and onto miniscule, specific events, The Bernank can continue to print money while blaming the attendant continuing rise of all dollar-denominated commodities on "transitory" events.
Again, MOPE can buy you time but TRUTH shall prevail. It's unavoidable.

Watching Gold

I'm getting a bit uneasy this morning.

As expected (hoped) last evening, 74 provided too much resistance overnight for the POSX and it rolled over, making a low on the June contract of 73.57. On the chart below, it is quite clear that the pig should catch a bid near 73.50. As it bounces off of there, it will once again encounter that down-sloping trendline. If it can break through, it will rally as buyers emerge and shorts cover. It would likely make it all the way back up to 74+.
When this happens, you can bet that it will put pressure on the PMs. Silver will retreat back toward the bottom end of this pennant.
And gold is not going to be looking very good, at all. A concerted effort has been made to contain gold below 1550, as you can plainly see on this 30-minute chart.
I think I now know why. By capping price and momentum at 1550, the daily chart begins to take on a nasty-looking double top. When we called Turd's #2 back in May, I mentioned that 1560-80 was my June target for gold. It reached 1555 yesterday and that's pretty close. Watch this daily chart in the coming days. I'd say that trendline is pretty important so, IF gold rolls over, we're going to want to pay particular attention to the action in the 1520 area.

All of that said, please keep in mind that these are simply words of caution. The PMs may continue higher and all will be well. The POSX may trade all the way to 73 before finding support and, even there, it may just bang around between 73 and 73.50 again, like it did back in April. Let's hope so. In the meantime, keep an eye on the charts.  TF

12:20 pm EDT UPDATE:
Sometimes it sucks to be right.
As if on cue, The Cartel took the opportunity presented by a lack of buyers and jammed gold down about $10 an hour ago. Fortunately, I took my own advice and sold one of my August 1550 calls before the beatdown. I'm now looking for a spot to buy a dip with a tight stop. That spot looks to be somewhere near 1530. We'll see.
Of course, today's action presents another possibility that we must be aware of. Namely, that The Fed has warned their friends that The Bernank is going to give a "hawkish" speech this afternoon, seeming to disavow QE3 and attempting to give support to the lifeless, dying POSX. This has caused a rush to the exits from the connected, inside money. Wouldn't be the first time this has happened, now would it?
More later.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Half-Full or Half-Empty?

I guess it all depends on how you choose to look at it.

Half-full: In the face of a rising POSX, a falling euro, negative crude and sharply lower grains, the PMs performed admirably in eeking out slight gains on the day.

Half-empty: After rallying all morning, gold stood just $3 away from a headline-grabbing, all-time closing high at noon EDT. The buyers had seized the day and the EE was on the run. Sadly, the buyers seemed to simply give up and call it a day before their work was done. This allowed the monkeys to take over and drive gold back down almost $10 by the close. Yuck.

By the descriptions above, I guess you can tell how I feel about today's events.

Oh well, today is over and its onto the overnight and Tuesday trade. Without question, the item of the day for tomorrow will be the performance of the POSX. It faces two very strong lines of resistance that are both intersecting around the 74 level. IF it can clear 74, the newly-energized bulls will seize the day and quickly drive it back toward 75. IF, however, it acts like it's supposed to, the 74 level will cap today's meager rally and the index will head lower, toward 73.50. Let's hope the latter scenario plays out as it will activate the "risk on" button of WOPR and send stocks and commodities higher on Tuesday.

Today's weakness in crude presents traders with another opportunity to get long near support and with limited downside risk. I gotta tell ya, if I was some big $ hedgie, I'd be all over this one. You can buy right here, between 98 and 99 and put a stop below the recent lows of 95. That's about $4 of downside risk. Your upside, however, is almost infinite.

The PM charts are simply updates of the charts I posted this morning. Sadly, gold failed to hold 1550 and was successfully beaten back for the fourth time in four days. Again, why The Cartel is so determined to keep it below 1550 and why buyers are so reluctant to drive it through are questions for which I don't have an answer. Feel free to posit your own theory in the comments section.

Lastly, here's a piece from one of my favorite commentators, Mark Steyn. It's about two weeks old but still relevant to the discussion here.

Have a great evening. Keep checking back as I may have more for you later. TF

Oh Monday Morning...

...you gave me no warning of what was to be.

As we begin what will surely be another unpredictable week in the PMs, there are just a couple of things to note. First, The Evil Empire has made it known that they do not wish to see gold trade above $1550. Why, exactly, this level is so important to them remains to be seen but their desire to suppress can clearly be seen on this hourly chart. Note how quickly that spikes UP to 1550 are quickly met with spikes down.

And look what I found in silver...a perfect pennant on the 3-hour chart. It's perfect in that the points line up almost exactly. As we've discussed here, pennants are interesting formations because they eventually close and the commodity in question has to break one way or the other. Usually, the break goes in the direction of the line with the greatest slope. In this case, the rising line of the bottoms slopes greater than the declining line of the tops. I'll try to update this chart several times per day as we go through this week  as it will give us clues for when silver will encounter resistance and when it will find support. For now, IF silver can clear 37.50, it looks clear for a run to 38.50 or so before it encounters the resistance of the down-sloping line.

Lastly, we had an interesting discussion here over the weekend regarding GLD and SLV.

I found this on ZH today and it furthers the conversation. You should take time to read both.

As I close, I see that the PMs have spiked UPward (for a change) while I've been typing. I have lasts of 1547 and 36.93. Maybe Monday may still give us some kind of warning of what lays ahead.  TF