Thursday, April 21, 2011

All About The Buck

There are a number of interesting things going on. Chief among them, if you haven't read this yet, you need to take some time and consider the possible implications:
And then there's this. Here's the link to ZH where you can read the full FT story with registration:
Hmmm......sounds a lot like or Buyer(s) of Size, doesn't it???

Anyway, as a precaution, I am now long 1 July $50 silver call which cost me a cool $7500. However, the recent spike, the upcoming option expiration and this latest news all but guarantees a steep but brief selloff is just over the horizon. I'd put the chances at 90%. On the 10% chance there is no pullback....which is why I bought the call...silver is going to accelerate UPward rather quickly here. This will be a very interesting day.

Two main thing I want to discuss in this note. First and foremost, the POSX. It's sure living up to its name, isn't it? WOW! Look at this six-hour chart:
Also keep in mind the longer term perspective:
This is an absolute disaster. In their attempts to shore up the bond market with limitless printing of money, the Fed has succeeded in killing the dollar. Trader Dan wrote a terrific piece on this yesterday:

As the POSX approaches 72, the almost has to be a Calvin coming. The dollar will rally and bonds will sell off but then what? The dollar will roll back over and down it will go.

Lastly, I've been getting a lot of inquiries about the horrific underperformance of some/most of the mining shares. Keep in mind, there are three main issues affecting share performance currently:

1) ETFs. ETNs and closed-end funds siphon investment dollars that would traditionally have been flowing into the miners.

2) The "ratio trade" employed by hedge funds whereby they sell the shares of the hedged miners and use the proceeds to purchase paper metal contracts on the Comex. Eloquently described here by Trader Dan:

3) Equity analyst limitations. This is important. Eric Sprott touches upon this is his latest (which is copied below) but let me expand upon this. At a sell-side firm (retail, private client or investment management firm), analysts all have individual areas of expertise. In making their forecasts for equities that they cover, they get feedback from other analysts that specialize in other areas. For example, the analyst that covers a  multi-national company like GE may know everything about that company's growth prospects but his opinion will be enhanced or tempered by the opinion of his company's "global economist". Global macroeconomic forecasting is not the expertise of the GE analyst so he will defer to the global economist when implementing growth forecasts into his earnings projections.
The same thing happens with mining stock analysts. The analyst may love SLW and all that they do. But if his firm has a "commodity specialist" who forecasts year-end commodity prices and this fool has a 2011 price target for silver of $30, then the analyst has to use the $30 price as his number for projecting earnings per share numbers. So silver can go to $45 and you and I know that SLW will make a boatload of extra money this year but until the "firm" changes its price targets, the EPS forecasts will stay the same and money will not flow into the stock. Does that make sense? I have a feeling that this concept is much more easily explained verbally than in text. Anyway, I hope that helps.

And here is the latest Sprott letter, in its entirety. Really, really great stuff. I love how he inadvertently blasts all the trolls as folks who don't understand the fundamentals.

MARCH 2011
Markets at a Glance
Follow the Money
By: Eric Sprott & Andrew Morris
You know silver’s doing well when the commentators start giving it the ‘gold’ treatment. Silver’s recent rise has been so spectacular that it’s caught many investors off guard. It’s natural to be sceptical when you don’t know the fundamentals driving strong performance, and many pundits and commentators have been quick to downplay it as a result - much like they do towards gold when it enjoys a run. Silver is also an awkward metal for them to categorize. Is it a commodity, a monetary metal, or both? And which side is driving demand? If it’s industrial demand, that’s ok, because that’s bullish. But if it’s investment demand for silver as ‘money’, well then that’s sort of bearish, isn’t it? The fact remains that most commentators have failed to grasp the monetary shifts that silver is signaling today, and in doing so they’ve failed to appreciate just how high it could actually go.
The financial media’s failure to grasp the benefits of precious metals ownership continues to perplex us, and it’s not just the commentators who are prone to perpetual disbelief. The sell side analysts are equally as irresolute. According to Bloomberg, the ‘expert’ consensus silver priceforecast for 2011 is $29.50, representing a 31% discount from the current spot price. This same group of analysts also predicts prices will decline another 25% in 2012 and a further 9% in 2013 to $20 an ounce. When you consider that the silver price has appreciated by over 21% annually over the past 10 years, these forecasts suggest a very dramatic change in the long-term trend. Will this reversal come true? Probably not. These were the same analysts who predicted that spot silver prices would average $18.65 this year - so they’ve missed the mark by over 100% thus far.
We don’t mean to bash the silver analyst community, and there are several whom we highly respect, but it is important for silver investors to appreciate that these price forecasts are being plugged into financial models that dictate equity valuations. These models are used by traders, bankers, analysts, andportfolio managers to derive valuations for silver stocks and create asset allocations for portfolios. To anyone questioning current silver equity valuations, we would ask: what price assumptions are you using? Of course we as allocators of capital are thankful for this phenomenon, as it allows us to buy our favourite silver stocks on the cheap, knowing full well that the herd will be following behind in due course as those backward-looking forecasts get ratcheted higher.
How can we be so confident that the price of silver will continue on its upward trajectory? Our thesis is premised on the most rudimentary of economic principles – supply and demand.
One of the key indicators that we’ve been monitoring is the gold/silver ratio. Much has been written about the ratio of late, and we won’t go into great detail on the subject, other than to note that the last time money was synonymous with defined amounts of gold and silver, the ratio was set at 16-to-one. In fact, for most of the past millennium, one ounce of gold would have been convertible to somewhere between 10 and 16 ounces of silver - an amount roughly in line with the relative occurrence of each mineral within the earth’s crust.1 For the better part of the past century, due to the world’s abandonment of bimetallism and then the gold standard, the gold/silver ratio has fluctuated widely, twice reaching lows near the 15-to-one mark and a high of 100-to-one back in the early 1990’s. The most recent high reached in the latter part of 2009 was nearly 80-to-one. Since then the ratio has been tumbling to where it stands now at 35-to-one – which reflects the incredible outperformance of silver over that time period. In our opinion, this ratio will continue to move lower, driven by nothing more than basic supply/demand fundamentals.
The US Mint, which is the world’s largest silver and gold coinmanufacturer, recently reported that it had sold 13 million ounces of silver coins and 370 thousand ounces of gold coins on a year-to-date basis.2 This means that the US Mint is now selling roughly equal amounts of silver and gold in dollars so far this year. Furthermore, bullion dealers like Sprott Money and GoldMoney have confirmed with us that they are now sellingmore silver than gold in dollar terms. For additional confirmation of this investment trend, just look at the flows for the two largest gold and silver ETFs. Investors have withdrawn approximately $3 billion from the GLD so far this year while the SLV has seen net inflows of $370 million over the same period. Dollar for dollar, investors are allocating as much if not more money to silver than to gold. And why shouldn’t they? Silver is much more of a "precious" metal than the current ratio of 35-to-one would suggest.
To explain, we must first address mine supply. In 2010, the world mined approximately 736 million ounces of silver and 85 million ounces of gold.3The world also produced an additional 215 million ounces of silver and 53 million ounces of gold from recycled scrap.4 Adding both together brings us 951 million ounces of silver and 139 million ounces of gold supply, for a ratio of nine ounces of silver to one ounce of gold.
Interestingly, this 9-to-one ratio is very similar to the ratio of available in-situ silver and gold reserves. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there are current in-situ reserves of approximately 16.4 billion ounces of silver versus 1.6 billion ounces for gold, or about a 10-to-one ratio.5
The case for silver is even more compelling when one considers the ramifications of its dual role as both an investment and industrial metal. Last year, non-investment demand for silver (which includes industrial, photographic, and silverware demand) totaled approximately 610 million ounces.6 This represents approximately 64% of primary supply, leaving approximately 341 million ounces to satisfy investment demand.7 On the gold side, industrial usage totaled 13 million ounces, or about 10% of primary supply, leaving approximately 125 million ounces left over for investment demand.8 So, after netting out the industrial usage the primary supply left over for investment demand is about 2.7 times that for gold. However, if we convert those ounces to dollars at current prices, we’re left with $15 billion worth of silver available for investment versus $186 billion worth of gold, or a one-to-13 ratio of silver to gold! This means that in terms of primary supply, silver only has 8% of the capacity for investment that gold does despite having equal if not more dollars flowing into it.
Now, it’s true that another potential source of supply is the very silver that investors already own - and at the right silver price these inventories of silver and gold bullion may be sold into the market to supplement any supply shortfalls. As we’ve noted previously, however, due to decades of underinvestment, the amount of silver bullion inventories are actually extremely small, even compared to those of gold.9 Recent estimates suggest that reported silver bullion inventories stand at roughly 1.2 billion ounces versus 2.2 billion ounces of gold bullion, or roughly a 0.5-to-one ratio.10 To put that amount in perspective, consider that at present there is only $52 billion worth of silver bullion/coins and over $3.3 trillion worth of gold in inventory which could potentially be recirculated into the market. Converting this to a ratio, you get a one-to-63 ratio of silver to gold inventories. So how is silver still priced at 35-to-one?!
All indications lead us to believe that there is now roughly an equal amount of investment flowing into silver and gold on a dollar-for-dollar basis. And although the price ratio of silver to gold has fallen substantially since the highs of 2009, our analysis strongly suggests that this ratio must move lower to restore a fundamental balance between supply and demand. Only time will tell how much lower it will go, but we would not be surprised to see it hit single digits before settling into a more sustainable equilibrium.
What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement. Yet, when compared to gold, it is silver that offers the most attractive value proposition by virtue of the gross mispricing of its scarcity, which, we might add, has existed for many years. Thus, in our opinion, as this new bimetallic standard takes root, silver investors will continue to be justly rewarded with marked outperformance. We truly believe that this is the investment opportunity of a lifetime, and increasingly so, others are taking heed. What is clear to us is that with equal investment dollars now flowing into silver and gold, the current 35-to-one ratio is unsustainable and has only one direction to go: lower.

Have a great day. Stay nimble and be mindful that The Cartel would do just about anything right now to convince May contract holders to roll into July. TF


  1. Is bacon in a can really as good as it looks?

  2. Here comes silver... Back up the truck guys. We got to thank the witch! :-)

  3. Oops, missed the new thread again. REPOST


    yes, Yoder's. I ordered from the place that I posted the link to. They got it to me in 3 days. No exp date, as explained above. The can does have a date code for it's production date. I can tell that mine was produced on the 81st day of 2011.

    Now, I've got to stop posting, stop eating, and open up my account and see what's shakin'.

  4. A plea from a lurker... There's no way I can digest 300-400 comments a day. I'm in no position to dictate what y'all should do, but please any idle chatter that can be omitted would be much appreciated...

  5. 5th!

    Everyone look at me I'm posting ON AN INTERNET!

    (Stupid idiots with their firstposting bullshit. :rolleyes: )

    Eric - Going to order a can for kicks and see how it tastes :)
    Made a lot of fiat overnight so we can afford it.

  6. Turd are holding any crude or brent calls?

    My plan was to be gready this week and then ended up taking profits. Just seemed to good to be true. Hard not to take profits up 300% in a week. Oh well I'm left with one 500 contract on 200x leverage and all my longterm holdings in Oanda.

    There is to many buyers waiting on dips anymore. They just aren't working for Blythe like they once did. Until the comex delivers I think this run continues IMHO

  7. @uptofreedom: we aim to please lurkers. So all idle chatter from henceforth will be excised.

    Can I get you a cup of tea with that? How about cookies?

  8. Silver Wheaton Raised To Outperform From Sector Perform By RBC >SLW 04/21 09:47 AM

    ver: mirci

  9. This is me this morning. I'm the dog.

  10. PSLV up even in the face of the dip. Makes me wonder if the EE is quietly accumulating shares to redeem for the physical. At some point it would be easier to pay the premium and do that rather than cash settle all the time.

  11. Thanks for your great post today Turd.

    My gutsy feeling tells me something is different this time.. Also, I keep on thinking about that one post from WB telling that the first batch of profits would be booked around $60.. I wouldn't be surprised if we see our so desperately requested pullback for the first time around $60.

    It seems almost everyone is expecting a steep correction @ $50.. So it probably won't happen.. Result is lot of people jump on the train again trying to not miss it.. And then boom.. This summer it might be different.

    Let's see if we can get to $47,03 today.. ;) Probably not! All other options for the yellow hat were already taken!

  12. Thanks Turd. Great post. I would like to throw in something also. Please go in and look at the price of silver in ALL currencies. Not only is silver going up in the dollar, it is also going up in the yen, yuan, etc etc etc. I feel the move in silver has to do more then 90% in supply demand fundamentals. The dollar is only effecting this price move slightly.

    Thanks for a great blog Turd.
    signed-a devoted turdling

  13. Jeff Christian is a toolinski. David Morgan, I'm not so sure about. And Puplava now seems to want to be the counter to Eric King.

    As for SLW, if I recall correctly, a few analysts have upgraded in the past few weeks, the latest being Scotia @ 58, so I don't think that explains SLW's current malaise. AUY is also down but it hasn't been as highly regarded as SLW. Perhaps the streaming business model has lost its appeal, after all how hard is it break your contractual obligations - the TBTF do that all the time. Or is it just a shake out of the weak if 'they' already know that SLW's latest numbers will blow estimates out of the water? The action in the first week of May should answer that question. Till then, I just don't have an answer why SLW isn't higher than SLV.

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

  15. Didn't somebody once post a Google Spreadsheet with the Silver COMEX open interests and inventory? I cannot find the link anywhere. Could somebody repost if they know it?

  16. No suprise here, but I'm going to take the contrarian view regarding getting out today or just staying in there until the end of the day.

    Could today be like the last several Fridays except more intense buying in Ag?

    I see Au hanging there despite a slight pause in crude and the PO$x decline. Good sign!
    The EE tried pretty hard this a.m. and yet were still rising and Au is steady above $1500.
    Very encouraging.

  17. Anyone notice that SLW may have finished a 5-3-5 elliott wave correction? Should be enough to spook the algos hopefully and its looking great today. First 8 day correction began on 3/6, then the second 8 day correction may have ended yesterday. I don't trade EW method cause it usually burns me if I do, but this one is possible especially with the SLW/SLV ratio so low.

    Damn looks like its being raided after I prepared the chart image:

  18. Check the volume!

    Gold vol. vs. WTI and Silver is very impressive.

    Gold volume is huge, whilst WTU and silver is normal.

    This looks like they are NOT touching silver (yet) -nor WTI-, but Gold's been taking a small beating.

  19. Thanks Turd for addressing the miner issue. Particularly SLW. Now we are fighting "Equity analyst limitations" as well. Are these financial wizards really that inflexible? Can they not see what is happening in front of their noses day after day? I mean, sooner or later they have to cough up some phlegm and send out an email correcting their colossal fuck-up. Then again, maybe not. As SLW sits poised to cross into the 41's again, I guess it's investors like me who need to adapt. THe smartest guys in the room sure aren't gonna.

  20. Oh and PSLV & PHYS have been eating CEF's lunch these past few weeks too. Don't have an answer for that one either.

  21. Hi, Turd,

    Thank you so much for the knowledge sharing and the inspiration. You are a rare talent with clear long term view, accurate short term prediction and honesty. Your bets on 43/44/45 silver are brilliant.

    Now the secret is well known. WB group and other traders have cornered jpm. Every 2 months, jpm has to pay 20-30% premium to cash settle standing delivery contracts. JPM can at most deliver 8M oz like in March, I doubt they have any million oz silver left for the May delivery. Silver will be up 10% every month, until jpm or comex defaults - not sure it ends, they still have 160M oz shorts. Just my thoughts.

  22. uptofreedom - why don't you post more, instead of just coming on and telling us to shut up? What are you trading, what are your strategies, why do you read this blog? What are looking for from us?

    Me, I enjoy the bacon reviews, and the idle chit chat - scroll on by, and wait for the new site.

    So - my hubby's dad phoned up and wondered if it was too late to get into silver. Do we think SLW is a buy right now? I am inclined to think it is a bargain, but maybe somehow it is never going to recover? I don't own any in my miner account, but we do have some elsewhere that we are holding. It is a question of buying it now.

    Any clue what my special message meant?

  23. Nimble indeed!

  24. Small 6.0 earthquake a bit closer to Tokyo just reported :-(

  25. DarkPurpleHaze - I am lying here in the SLW road with you. Are your eyes open? I can't see. Are your eyes open?

  26. XTY please stop running around like you own the place. It's so fscking annoying. You come in here with your attention whoring and always need to be the center of everything. You stay up 22 hours a day posting here. You are ruining this place. Destroying it! Then when you get called out on it by several long time posters, you whine and post "oh that's it I'm leaving forever" precisely for the purpose of hearing everyone stroke your ego and tell you "Oh No, XTY, please don't go, you're soooooooo valuable!"

    You are an ATTENTION WHORE and that is all. You will do or say anything to be the center of the blog.

    For the record, I run and maintain a VERY large community of over 43,000 users, I know your type, and you are bad for business!

  27. quickie
    I am a trader so the things I do should have no influence on you. Turd is the man and compared to him I am a drunken sailor. No offense intended to drunken sailors. I suspect that any corrections from these levels will be shallow ($1 to 1 1/2) and fast (intra day). I think the mkt is headed much higher. I would not be surprised to be at or near $50 next week.

  28. Bond market closes early today and both bond/stock market closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. Knew I was feeling antsy about getting my 80 year old Father to lightened up on PSLV shares. You certainly would want to knowing the bankster fraudsters have a 3 day weekend to orchestrate a crashcading of PM's into benron speak wed. 4/27. In addition all the new treasury funds in taxes coffered give the dead head feds plenty of fire power to lift the USD and crush gold/silver. Just a heads up before FOMC week. Might want to take care of any stock cleaning chores today?

  29. Turd

    Thank you for this post, it is very timely and right on!

    As I read Follow the Money, I was reminded of a similar situation that occurred in the tech sector and how the forecasters and commentators attempted to 'explain' the huge rise in some companies without fully understand the underlying fundamentals.

    They would attempt to define Apple - Is it a hardware company that sells software or a software company that sell hardware? a phone manufacturer, music distribution company, tablet manufacturer? Or Google - With all its manifestations it was beyond any known conventional metric used by analysts.

    Only those able to think outside the box and see the potential of these companies were even remotely close to long term price projections. And even those wise ones admitted they could be grossly underestimating the long term potential.

    The conventional analysts couldn't grasp the magnitude of the growth of these companies and were left in the dust wondering what they missed. The SAME thing is happening in silver right now!

    As someone once said, "History doesn't repeat, it rhymes."

  30. Average Joe: Yes I have 3 June 115s and 2 July 115s.

  31. @SSK. I used to forecast for a fortune 50 company but not commodities. 15 years, eventually managing a team. For sure what Turd says does go on. Nobody inside a company wants to be the only forecaster saying the emporer has no clothes. Plus times like these induce a psychological state we called "planner nervousness" and could reduce most analyst/forecaster types to a shambles. Don't blame them they're only human.

    Now between companies (or investment houses) it's a different thing because competition to be the best forecaster can inspire. Inside a company, with the culture, koool-aid etc etc what Turd is saying in spot on.

    @atlee - assume you got your buy. I got my sale but missed the buy. Are you thinking to exit today? I will buy again if 45.50 is met.

  32. I just dumped the last little bits I had of SLW, CDE, and PAAS. I don't tolerate underperformance for long. Plenty of others on my list that don't treat me so badly. I'll revisit if they show some relative strength again, someday....

    Good luck to all who are holding on, or contemplating buying. It will probably work out. Just not my style. I like strength.

  33. SLW went from 42.80 to 42.30 in a blink of an eye. Just what happened yesterday. As soon as it gets its mojo, some massive sell bomb takes out its legs in a matter of seconds. Seconds.

    SO yeah, my eyes are open. Trying to not even blink.


  34. Another angry loser on here I see.

  35. The first time we hit $45.90 today, I'm pulling the plug on everything for the weekend.

  36. @ Happy
    Ya $326.85. Minute by minute. If we close at $47ish I stay. If they give me a quick down draft today I will step out and back in and recalculate.

  37. I do not like 10:30. Or 12:30. Or 1:25. These are the usual smackdown times.

    Thanks Happy for your post. It's good to have guys on this site with inside experience.

  38. JohnBC...Yep. Wide open. Not phasing me at all.

    SLW will make a boatload of money like TF said and it will rise proportionately. I'm confident and patient.

  39. XTY...Simmering a bit? I know you are. Got your back over here.

    Eric#1...Is today the bacon burping day :-)

  40. Got back into AGQ with a small position at 328... will probably regret it later, but I'm finding out I'm more comfortable with a large negative position if I'm totally sure that it will come back up, rather than just sitting on my hands waiting for a dip.

    Unlike the miners, I know silver will return to whatever level I buy it at.

  41. Wow, I didn't know 43,000 trolls would gang up in one place.
    Should we feel honored by the lead troll coming out from under the bridge?
    (sry, couldn't resist, I'm done)

  42. Turd,

    How about a WAG re: what might be the case should China move the yuan 10% as is rumored? Is USD dead, Bernanke announcing time of death, secondary infection that officially caused its demise and new hardcore remedy coming from the FED?

    I'm a little worried about a trapdoor giving way vs a dead cat bounce if the Yuan gets juiced(rehydrated?), making me not want to sell everything going into the weekend.

  43. DPH - just perforating my tongue, nothing more.

  44. SGS wrote this yesterday and its very interesting. PLease read:

  45. Does anyone trade HZU on the Toronto Exchange (Horizons BP comex silver bull etf) leveraged 2x. It's had a nice run for the last 6 months.;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

    Would like to hear Turd's comments or from anyone else for that matter on this leveraged etf.

    Great Blog Turd


  46. ETA... that above I meant to specify Bernanke making announcement, as planned, on April 27.

  47. Lotsa support for gold at $1500. Encouraging. WTI at $111 helps.

    I have half my long XAG position re-established.
    Saving some funds for next week, unless we get a red-blooded two-fisted smack-down today, or a scalded-cat breakout.

  48. XTY....LOL!

    West-backed Libyan rebels face Qaddafi who is aided by China, East Europe
    April 21, 2011,

    Chinese arms sent to QaddafiBoth of Libya's fighting camps are taking delivery of a surging influx of weapons shipments and military personnel – each hoping to use the extra aid for breaking the military standoff in its own favor, debkafile's military sources report.
    The British, French and Italian military officers bound for rebel headquarters in Benghazi are part of a package that includes arms and military equipment from the US, Britain, France, Italy and Qatar.

    On the other side of the Libyan divide, China, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Serbia are keeping the pro-Qaddafi camp's arsenals stocked with new hardware along with combat personnel from Eastern Europe and the former Yugoslavia.
    Building up in Libya is a confrontation that recalls the 1999 war in Yugoslavia...

  49. Ok, I'm out of everything now for the weekend. If we drop down to $45 I will go about 25% back in. Just can't risk it this weekend.

  50. Plumber,

    My thinking is if China get's "uppity", it gets smacked down. Gotta keep things "in the family" ya know...

  51. According to the 'Terminator' movies, today is the day that Skynet takes over....

    So, will that be bullish or bearish for the markets?

  52. Hi guys, I need advice on a super-accurate weighing scale - must do measurements in grams and troy oz - preferably an inexpensive one :)

  53. The grains all just opened down pretty hard -- especially corn. No idea why.

    The dollar seems to be doing a pretty good job of bouncing off its lows.

  54. Crude rebounding and the PO$X starting to fizz away.
    Should get interesting again soon.

  55. Oh yeah I also need to know, is it safe to store parboiled rice in HDPE#2 white 5gal pails, or do I need to do anything special? Same question with 50 lbs of sugar.

    It was open house at Sam's club last weekend and the wife and I bought about $500 worth of rice, oats, honey, sugar, salt, instant coffee, oil, peanut butter, etc. We have 200 lbs of parboiled rice in bags on the counter and need to get it stored :)

  56. At this point I'm inclined to stay in over the weekend for worry of being out of the market first thing Monday a.m.

  57. atlee, kiwi. Thanks. Haven't seen Fort yet hope his heart's in good shape!

    I've pulled up the AGQ chart since I'm the lone Canadian trading our local version and can't expect you guys to always quote in silver price.

    Looks like you bought just under where I sold. Well that's divergent thinking and all good. Holding a small piece.

    @SSK glad that helped. I myself have planners nervousness today for the first time since I started this. Can't tell if I'm looking at forest, trees or the inside of my own eyelids.

  58. Well Kiwi they seemed to use a lot of metal... So bullish is my guess

  59. Kiwi...:-0 That was so random. Love it.

  60. @Patrick. I trade HZU. There is a USA version that you will hear talked about often called AGQ and comments for one usually apply to both.

  61. EXK taking it on the chin this morning.

  62. The daily asymptote is painted.

  63. pablo - this will sound wrong, but I am sure of this - go to a head shop. They will have an assortment of surprisingly accurate scales at low end prices. I don't know how I know this.

  64. @ Xty

    Don't worry about the troll, you will undoubtedly take it personal because you are a person who has empathy. This is obvious as I have seen plenty of your posts :). Yes you post a lot, and yes you get off topic, but your words are almost always positive, encouraging, and thought-provoking.

    This troll is good, as he knows exactly what to say. He has the buzz words that effect your emotions, don't buy into them. Trust me, I have been on the other side of the agitating before...

    Times are escalating, keep your cool.
    @ Afrum

    You have been calling this from the beginning of the week, and I personally think this is the most likely outcome as well. However, there has to be things that we are not aware of. This theory depends a lot on the fact that conditions are the same as before. We could be entering a new phase of the market where the physical floor suffocates all negative buying pressure. My position in miners is a buy and hold strategy, which may not profit as much as others (trying to upgrade my account to do options soon), but I think a large payout must be coming soon.

    I sometimes worry about my optimism for the miners given the fact that the facts don't support it. However, I realize that my confidence is a extreme majority position relative to the larger market. I have a feeling there are will not be as much selling in the miners on a pullback if it comes (still will be over 40$ and $1480), as this miners are prime to blow (imo).

    Thanks for your opinion, we shall see what happens.

  65. The prices don't support my optimism**, the facts are why I am in.

  66. You guys all play nice today...out for most of today...check back in tonight...thursdays are a write-off here...

  67. Dear Turd,

    Are you a time traveler from the future? Silver price at 45.80ish now is almost close to your 45.81 prediction for the Comex closing today. You da man. Congrats!

    Best Regards,

  68. 46 again!

    46 again!

    Blythe jumps out the window,

    and it's just a case of when

  69. EXK taking it on the chin this morning.


    Sold it, Long week could be a blood bath.

  70. @happyinthewoods

    Thanks - I'll watch out for comments about agq.

  71. xty

    lol @ "I don't know how I know this."

    Sorta like, "If you can remember the sixites, you weren't there."

  72. Why didn't Equity analyst limitations prevent SLW from hitting recent highs of 46.38 and 47.60 on Mar 7th and Apr 8th when the price of silver was $5 and $10 lower respectively than today's silver price?

    SLV is my only trading exposure to silver. I've got 4 weeks remaining on my may options and they're down about 50%. I can sell now and suffer a major loss but have dry powder to buy back in later. I know SLW will come back but what happened yesterday while silver was breaking out to new highs almost not believable. I agree with you DPH that silver seems to be holding up quite well to all that EE has thrown at it today. I am sure the BOS are watching the dollar and not about to retreat right now. But what happens Monday?

  73. Some of the things I like ...

    idle chatter ... bacon ... SSK using "taking it on the Chin" ... Ginger frazzled ... Afrum ... Old Navy ... Turds ... the smell of silver smelting in the morning ... XTY going naked short bacon ...

    I could go on but you get the point ...

  74. FOAGQ....

    Just getting caught up on all the posts.

    I put about 30% of my funds in at around $314 during the dip yesterday (after my stop triggered me out of 100% at $319), and left it in overnight, so obviously I'm happy. I have tight stops in again today and am just watching for now. If I had to guess, I'll probably take a little profit and leave somewhere between 15-25% of my powder in and then wait for next week.

    That said, I agree completely with atlee's awesome post which means technically, I shouldn't be afraid to buy more today and hold because 10 days from now, it's higher no matter what happens between now and then.

  75. Scott,

    What facts don't support optimism for the miners? Earnings should be strong. Look at the first two majors to report. FCX beat. NEM beat estimates as well -- even with lowered production. The staggering price of the metals they mine will make up for all fuel and commodity cost increases. Jim Sinclair put out a great post back when gold hit 1400. He said something to the effect: just you wait to see the profits the miners will achieve with 1400 gold. THis earnings season will show average prices at 1400. Fundamentally, the miners have a gold/silver price juggernaut behind them.

    What is it that gives you pause?



  76. Thanks for the response Turd! You the man bought yesterday after your commentary.

    My first ever oil purchase just wish it was bigger. So frigin cautious <>

  77. Just read the ZH article regarding Sinopec.
    Thats a big deal!

    Pablo...Smoking accessory shop for the young at heart. Know what I'm getting at?

  78. Stay sharp! Volumes picking up again.

  79. Scott - got my teflon suit on, no probs. And frankly I only get off topic with others here, and usually at quiet times in the market. I hardly posted during the North American day yesterday, and I do have a surprising amount of skin in this game.

    Like you, I am doubting the severity of the predicted dip. There are as you say many forces at work here, least of which might be brokers telephones ringing off the hook as clients ask why they weren't directed towards silver and getting on board. I do not think they can pull the dollar up much more no matter what the antics. And selling my miners now and then watching them sky-rocket would kill me more than watching them trade sideways.

  80. Oh, I don't think we have pot shops here in America. Maybe you have them up there in Canuckistan where that kind of thing is legal but it's not legal here :)

    So about the scale and food storage, any ideas?

  81. Pablo...

    HDPE-2 is NOT necessarily "food grade.". It must also say either "food grade" or USDA or NSF or FDA approved... Or you can check with the manufacturer.

  82. DPH: I thought you meant an engine shop - cylinder rebores, head and valve lapping ... OMG I feel old.

  83. I posted the web site with the open interest at the Comex. Just checked the book mark below, however it no longer comes up with the spreadsheet.

    Not sure why?

  84. Pablo, I'm a American.
    They are everywhere but are discreet for the most part.
    Look in phone book under "smoking accessories" and you'll see.
    Perhaps a medical supply store?

  85. Hey Y'all,
    Just trying to catch up on all the posts from late yesterday on...

    Thank you StrongSideJedi & Salud!....(Very Much) ...and If I can do options..... A.N.Y.O.N.E. can do options!

    I read a post where someone mentioned a radio show that Scottj was on.. I went back and re-scanned the comments.. but can't find the link or mention. I know I am in just too big of a hurry but would someone mind too much steering me to this? Scott, I'd love to hear it.

    Chin Music,
    "..Ginger frazzled" >ROFL.. ..That made my day :D ........You sure do have my number. ;)

    Options Update: Because I promised I would post everything for the world to see what a newbie options trader does when she doesn't really know what she's doing..but she's trying real hard to learn! This is an education for me. A REAL one. I bought some Jan12 USO calls this a.m. ...And then because I want to add to my profit at every single opportunity I bought some Jun 46 calls. :[ ...I was scared to do it..but I was also scared not to do it. This is how I looked at it: By the end of today if I can book an additional profit..then yay me. If I take a loss today I will just hold on to these calls because I'm *fairly* certain they will rebound before June. ..So, yeah. Anyway. OldNavy, you not gonna jump back in until next week? ...Oh..and here is one more thing I'm learning ...You know that I have a very small amount of $ tied up in this.. now only $2K ...but I'm discovering that the more $ you have tied up the harder it is to trade! I guess you feel like you have more to lose (duh) it makes me even more cautious..nervous..FRAZZLED!!! lol. :)

    (I don't say it enough...THANK YOU TURD)

  86. Stephen wrote:

    "Why didn't Equity analyst limitations prevent SLW from hitting recent highs of 46.38 and 47.60 on Mar 7th and Apr 8th when the price of silver was $5 and $10 lower respectively than today's silver price?"

    Now there's a good, cut through the bullshit question. Something has fundamentally changed SLW's trading in the last 14 days.

  87. pablo - not legal here either, but accessories are - not sure where you live, but California or Austin ...?

  88. "...And then because I want to add to my profit at every single opportunity I bought some Jun 46 calls."

    That should have said Jun SLV 46 calls..

  89. Pablo

    It probably doesn't meet with uptofreedom's approval, but I'll tell you anyway.

    A head shop is a place to buy, a among other things, paraphernalia related to marijuana. They can be interesting places run by interesting people.

    If that sort of place isn't to your liking, try this:

  90. I get the feeling that Blythe assigned a couple of monkeys to crush EXK and GPL just to destroy our morale.... damn chimps.... we will have to use code words for any new favorites....

  91. Algo's kicking in now. Silver spot to $46.50, then pullback to $45.75, close of trading has spot at $46.66.

    Just saying . . .

  92. I sold AGQ at 330.71, I might be a complete idiot for doing so (I have this sinking feeling for doing so), 20% of profit in a week is plenty for me, so that helps me feel somewhat better. Here's to the TURD BOTTOM at $42.50 next week......I hope!

  93. My guess is no big $2.50 correction at least until $50 and quite possibly higher. At this rate we hit $50 next week. I think we are in the blowoff top stage. The 8 hour chart is totally parabolic.

  94. Scales - Search Amazon. Lots of them and less expensive than Fleabay. Lots of reviews for most of them. 10 lb scales will not be that accurate for grams and visa-versa. You might need two. Don't try to get too cheap. Buy a calibration weight made for the scale.

  95. Hello everybody-

    I've posted a couple times but wanted to weigh in here. Does anyone read Ted Butler? I've seen it mentioned here but no "in-depth" conversations (although I'm busy and can't get to every post). What we may be seeing here is INDUSTRIAL demand. One of the reoccuring themes of Ted's work is that when silver inventory starts to get squeezed by investors that the companies that rely on silver for production will buy in earnest to ensure their production lines keep producing- at ANY cost. They will rush in to ensure they have it.


    Oh, and Pablo - the rice should be stored in cans (airtight) with a packet of oxygen reduction added. I can't think of the exact term at this moment, but it says "DO NOT EAT" and is in lots of products- beef jerky, for example. No need for a vacuum seal but needs to be air tight and out of UV rays. Will store around 30 years!

  96. Pablo they aren't advertised that way here but the large posters of a leaf are enough for anyone looking.

    In terms of a scale you might actually need 2. Reason is scales have a range. Say 5 lbs and under and then 1-100 lbs.

    Kitchen supply stores will have them as well as laboratory equipment suppliers. Hmm and maybe brew-your-own beer places.

    Look to pay 60-100 for a decent one, make sure it weighs to the fineness you need (eg 0.1g, 0.001g etc) and you want a 'Tare' button.

  97. Pablo:
    From my high school days in Chemistry class we used "triple beam balance scale"

    Very acurate mechanical that can measure to 1/10 gm & one can estimate to 1/1000 gm.

    Re yr plastic containers: Maybe you can put a food grade plastic bag inside yr container to be sure all is safe.

  98. I don't put too much stock in the $50 number anyway because this is a global commodity priced around the clock. A round number in USD is not a round number in Tokyo at 3am our time.

  99. @pablo
    Pail (and Lids)

  100. @ SSK

    Mis-type, the facts are there and the prices are not. I am not worried about the fundamentals of miners, and am very bullish on the short-medium term future for silver and gold miners.

    For the argument about cost of mining going up which will cut into profits into miners, I laugh at this (at least in the case for silver miners). Clearly they are not seeing simple algebra...

    Let us say that 50% of the cost of mining involves energy costs such as oil (even though I think this is closer to 25%). Now, various silver miners can mine an oz of silver for ~$4-$10 an oz. Say the cost of energy doubles (as oil will do when it heads back to $150+). This would give a new range of cost of mining from previous levels to ~$7-$15 dollar an oz.

    Silver is currently 46$ and will be much higher by the time oil doubles. In short, the underlying asset of silver is outpacing the cost of production to leave a profit margin that is truly a breath-taking opportunity for silver miners.

    Silver miners at $100+ silver will be loved by the market. The capital has to come from somewhere to meet the demand for physical that is surging.

    Gold miners too, but I like silver miners better for their profit margin potential comparatively to gold.

    Sorry for the sloppy spelling/phrasing in my previous post. I would like to add the fact that the physical floor would suffocate selling pressure, not buying pressure.
    War on Libya is a War on Gold
    (The silvergoldsiliver video really was fantastic)

  101. The food grade 5gal pails are very expensive. The ones we got at Sams say HDPE #2 on them but not "NSF" or "FDA". Is it really that big if a difference for rice and sugar? They do seal tightly. We don't have any oxygen packets but we were planning to wash the pails and fill them right to the very top.

  102. XTY - didn't mean it to come across as a "shut up", sorry if that's what how you took it...

    I'd post more if I had anything to share that I felt would help y'all "prepare accordingly". As it is I'm just soaking as much info as I can from TF and crew. At 100-200 comments/day I could manage to keep up, but this past week it's been impossible.

    And no, no clue what your "special message" meant. Was it important?

  103. Ok chaps, another 12 hour day done for me. Keep the faith and wishing everyone a blessed Good Friday ahead.

    Take care and see ya on the other side.

  104. GPL is testing 3.91-3.92 for the Nth time, seems like there is some sort of support in that area...tempting hmmm

  105. Stephen - "Why didn't Equity analyst limitations prevent SLW from hitting recent highs of 46.38 and 47.60 on Mar 7th and Apr 8th when the price of silver was $5 and $10 lower respectively than today's silver price?"
    Great question, something else is holding these miners back - SLW, GPL, AUY, GRS, EXK - they are making a killing - why are they down - maybe "The Club" knows that if miners breakout, more people see this and Silver shoots to the moon. Just my thoughts - they are being held down.....

  106. Buy a calibration weight made for the scale.
    Clarification - Many scales have a calibration and the specs call for a certain weight of a particular size. Find that weight amount and buy a calibration weight at that size.

  107. DPH

    I got bacon oozing out my pores as we speak....

  108. Pablo

    Just go to eBay and search "digital scale". Tons of sweet little digital scales out there. Multiple unit settings. Cheap.

  109. Amazon has a bunch of scales.
    Try some of the digital kitchen scales.

    If you want real analytic precision try

    I purchased on of there expensive hig precision scales fro some of my rocketry chemical analysis stuff.

  110. Pablo, use mylar bags and oxygen absorbers. That way you can re-use buckets or buy non-food grade ones.

    I've been prepping for five years, since I first heard a lecture by James Kunstler. I've amassed a lot of knowledge and research that I'd love to share.

  111. - I agree - code words for new miners so "The Club" does'nt hold them down.....

  112. Word ver: DOTTU - akin to ditto - anagram: Dis Orderly To The Upside (again)

  113. upto - I guess I was kind of snarky - sorry. The comment section has grown, and we all need the new website. I jumped on you and apologize.

  114. @atlee

    Thanks for the kudos, I just hope come mid next I'm not feeling like I should be riding the short bus to trading school,lol!

  115. Turd, what do you think about SGS's assertion that the U of Texas actually bought GLD and not physical?

    Thanks for everything!

  116. No worries, XTY. I'm cranky in the AM, too. :)

  117. Thank you for that link Robert Leroy Parker. "Monetary Accident"... I'm not so sure.. I go back and forth between wondering if this is indeed an 'accident' (unintentional through stupidity) or done on purpose. I tend to believe it's done more intentionally but the results are the same unfortunately. Good article. Scary in its truthfulness.

    Turd is a 'harpie'. :] ...Keep on harping Turd. We need good harpers to wake everybody up.

  118. @happyinthewoods

    In regards to HZU, do you use a "stop loss' and if so how do you set it, keeping in mind the volatility.


  119. Avino is killing me today. Don't know whether to bail or double down. As stated above, I hate underperformance. But I'm so emotionally wrapped up in the "story" on this one it's hard to cut the cord. The others were easy to sell because I had no emotional attachment.

  120. Anyone know the latest news on PSLV's premium? I'm thinking of picking up some next week if silver dips. I know that PHYS also had a huge premium, until they did a follow on offering. Has there been any public comments or speculation about the possibility of a follow on offering with PSLV?

    Also...thanks to everyone who answered my miner query. I think I'm going to hold most of my miner's for now. The only one I got rid of is PAAS--I didn't like gambling on the potential actions of the Bolivean govnt.

  121. As someone who has owned GG since 2004 and SLW since 2006 and has added more over time, I see PM investors as much closer to the finish line that to the starting gate.

    For those who began their PM trek after the deleveraging of 2008, you can be glad that you missed being crushed nearly into oblivion.
    (SLW dropped to $2.51 from mid-teens, GG dropped to $13.84 from over 40)

    Silver at $46 and Gold at $1500 is still almost unfathomable (to me) yet here they are.

    For the miners to lag at this penultimate moment is definitely frustrating and somewhat confusing, but there is no doubt (in my mind) that the coiled spring is compressing tighter and tighter.

    A portfolio of good miners should grind higher.

    Just my two cents. I am hanging on.
    Good luck to all.
    Tom T.
    PS Nimble short term traders, have at it.

  122. @DM -- I think SGS is saying that their mechanism for acquiring physical was by redeeming GLD shares rather than buying on the Comex. B/c there may not be that much gold in Comex vaults for delivery, the implication goes.

  123. SSK & DPH,
    are you sitting through the long weekend? I must say its really tempting but my palms get all sweaty just thinking about it hehe..

  124. :( how many times do I have to ask, what options/trading software should I be using? I have looked at optionshouse, optionsexpress, but they wont allow me to invest in commodities like oil, corn etc. wtf should i sign up for, sctotttrade? please someone give a noob some help

  125. @waffen

    thinkorswim is the best options platform, without a doubt (my opinion) with most reasonable commission strucutre, make sure u ask for and fight for $1.50 at most per contract.

    interactive brokers is cheaper but horrible interface

  126. Patrick - I used to set up stop losses but got burned or came too close for comfort on those dips that last only 5-10 minutes.

    Not anymore. Generally I don't play on margin either.

    Everyone has their own style here.

  127. @waffen, perhaps the whiny, pouting, self-indulgent tone of demanding an answer might have something to do with the lack of response. As is the fact that if you Google your question focusing on this site with Google 'Advanced Search', you will find about 3 dozen answers.

    One more hint -- look VERY closely at the hand-annotated charts Turd posts, the watermark will tell you where to go.

  128. So, all my proceeds from SLW, CDE, and PAAS just got dumped into Avino. Ay yi yi..... What the hell am I doing?

    Word Ver: quiter

    as in, "don't be one"

  129. LOL!

    Great read as well

  130. Don't know if anyone here follows BAA but they are sitting on a pile of gold right in the middle of the Congo and just got additional support from a Chinese company to expedite the extraction...

  131. Re: food storage. Mylar bags and O2 absorbers in 5 gal. buckets are the way to go. You can also use dry ice to displace the oxygen. See and search for bucket mylar and dry ice.

  132. Beware of the Great Silver Correction
    By Silver Shield, on April 20th, 2011

    "Silver has been used and abused for 138 years since the “Crime of 1873″ when the Rothschilds sought to demonetize silver as money. With the discovery of the huge Comstock Lode in America, the banksters new that this debt free money would soon eliminate the debts the banksters accrued. The Rothschilds hired Earnest Seyd to go to America with $100,000 dollars to bribe every politician to demonetize silver. Samuel Hooper who sponsored the bill admitted that Earnest Seyd actually wrote the legislation himself. This single act effectively cut the money supply in half and forced debts to be repaid in gold, which of course the Elite controlled. This made debt repayments nearly impossible. Within three years of the act being passed, a new dark ages was created in America as the money supply shrank."

    This and only this is the real core fundamental reason why the miners are under-performing and why silver has been under-performing for as far back as we can remember. This manipulation has made silver extremely cheap for manufacturing all kinds of things it it way to rare to be used as such. It seems I have to keep reminding people of the fundamentals. The bankers to keep we average Joe's, who is relatively poor, dependent upon their fiat fraud. Above all, they have to keep the poor mans real hope of freedom and independence silver, out of favor and extremely suppressed with respect to its true value relative to everything.

    All other reasons theorized as the cause of silver and the miners low price is secondary.

    The ETF'S are simply the latest and most effective tool used to suppress the price of silver and divert massive funds away from the miners which the naked short sell. The miners should be zooming way way ahead of silver. So, If they can suppress the silver miners, they can suppress any run to silver and then to gold, and the fiat fraud can continue another day longer.

    We are witnessing the end of this 138 year, and longer, attempt by these criminals too fool the majority of mankind and rob them of their wealth and freedom.

  133. coulda put that $ into options Eric.. ..or CZN.. ..just sayin' what needs to be said is all...


  134. sp... thankyou, I will look at it.

    cd.. i see the the watermark now, as for googling, i did that plenty of times, I was hoping for some sage advice from those with experience

    as for my whiny attitude, i thought I asked quite nicely many times, and seem to have gotten lost in the noise

    thanks for the responses

  135. Cron or Abbyfield,
    Do the 'buckets' have to be food grade if you use the vacuum seal bags FoodSaver? ...I have been madly food-savering lots of rice, beans, etc.. but don't have enough pantry space. I have lots of (clean) rubbermaid tubs but am not sure about the long term safety of storing foods sealed in plastic bags stored in plastic tubs. What do you think?

  136. Kennedy tried to return us to a silver standard and issued an executive order to print silver backed currency. I have no doubt that he was murdered to prevent that from happening. Shortly after Johnson was sworn in this order was rescinded.

  137. 200,000 shares traded in SLW in one minute on the TSX just now at $40.26 Can.

  138. Borte...I'm sitting tight. Sweaty palms are a good sign. Listen to your gut.

    Treasury sells TIPS at negative yield; bonds up

    Things are just so upside down. A negative yeild?
    The Fed and their cronies are so up against it. Who would buy anything at a negative yield?

  139. Turd

    Thanks for that SGS connecting the dots link.

    Since I'm a relative noob forgive me if this is a stupid question. If the Yuan increases it's value might it also alter conditions to lessen the likelyhood of further QE?

  140. ginger

    i told you way back in February that I wouldn't touch CZN or TRE. I don't regret those. I can pick my own losers!!

  141. Pforth-

    PSLV just updated at 11:29 EST 23.9% intraday

    there is a link for PHYS, sprott's physical gold fund, on this page as well fyi

    Central Fund has been much more reasonable of late and holds 50-50 gold/silver

    CEF updated last night at 2.8% USD

  142. Currencies

    April 21, 2011, 11:53 a.m. EDT

    Dollar hits 16-month low vs. euro, pound
    ECB’s Trichet says he’s confident U.S. will address budget issues (MarketWatch) —

    The dollar fell to a 16-month low against the euro and British pound on Thursday, with strong U.S. corporate earnings and a further rise in equities leaving investors to shun the greenback.

    The Australian dollar continued to press into uncharted territory.

  143. Why bother investing in miners when the lag constantly? So many people complain about the price action, why not just go straight up silver?

  144. DPH

    People buy regular treasury debt every single day at a negative real yield. TIP's have an inflation adjustment, so it just happens to be obvious on those.

    Negative real yields remain the primary driver behind precious metals, and that ain't changing anytime soon.

  145. Housing Math: Hard not to think in those terms seeing this divergence grow.

  146. Anybody watching the action today? Funny how they can move the prices so far within a minute. Check the action around 11:50-55 AM EST.

    Simply astounding.

    That is a LOT of paper.....

  147. I know what you told me Eric.

    I just don't think you meant it though. If I don't like what you think...I just change it in my head. :D

    I am trying to look out for you though. Fellow virgos or something like that.. ...or maybe it's just the fact that misery loves company.


  148. xty

    I'm going to take that as a positive sign that someone wants to get long for the weekend.

    As for the price of $40.26 CAN,,,I last showed $42.12 USD.

    How can it be less when the C $ is higher than the USD. What am I missing?

  149. Mothers Milk said...
    EXK taking it on the chin this morning.


    Sold it, Long week could be a blood bath.

    MM - Are you in the camp that thinks there will be a delay between QE2/3? If thats the case, that might be a solid short term play (admittedly I've been thinking about as well).

  150. BOrte,

    Going to sell some SLW. Probably some more HL if it ever hits 9.50. Problem is, SLW isn't anywhere near my ask. I keep waiting for a bounce to 43, but it ain't happening. And since we are about to run through the buzzsaw of the London and COMEX closes I am once again feeling like I'm playing chess with SLW and every move just a dodge out of check. What about you BOrte? How are you gonna play it?

  151. Pablo,

    For scales, you can also go to sporting goods places like Cabelas or similar that cater to ammunition reloaders. They will have lots of scales, digital and analog, that can measure to 1/100th of a gram, as well as micrometers. I would go with analog so you don't have an unnecessary dependency, personally. And don't forget checkweights.

  152. Silver has used up in manufacturing, thus squandered, because of the suppression therefore it is as rare above ground as gold. I think silver is actually more precious than gold.

  153. Ginger,

    You can store food inside food-grade plastic bags in Rubbermaid containers or any non-food grade bucket. I put in oxygen absorbers when I'm doing vacuum sealing, too.

    Check out Dehydrate2Store on Youtube. That woman is the absolute queen of dehydrating and food storage. I really recommend getting a dehydrator if you don't already have one. I dehydrate not only my own garden produce but also frozen vegs I buy in huge bags from Costco. Just throw the corn, peas, beans, whatever on the trays and dry - the blanching has already happened.

    I can make an amazing soup in about 20 minutes using dehydrated kale, corn, peas, sweet potatoes, mushrooms, carrots, potatoes, green beans, peppers, tomatoes, onions. I cook them (re-hydrating really) in broth or water then I throw in some cooked meat or beans. Ohmigosh it's good!

    I've recently been experimenting with making pemmican and dehydrating hamburger "rocks". Cool.

    Okay, back to talking about silver.

  154. bbdgoco - because our dollar is mightier than yours it takes fewer of them to buy the stock - I get this backwards all the time. It seems like a rip off, but then I remember the whole problem here is that the USD is losing value, so it takes more of them to buy something.

  155. HOusing Math:
    Because over time the miners outperform. ALways have and will again. It's the timing that's killing us. The funk is pronounced and deep but not forever.

  156. @Housing Math...

    Hedge funds/investment firms are viewing gold/silver as peaking and very frothy. I think that's why the mining shares are relativly stagnant. Eventually the shorts will get taken out and they'll play catch-up faster than you can fathom. The overall volume in mining companies has been weak.

    With the next round of earning in the mining sector it will be hard to ignore the substanial profits.

  157. ah ok Duh, got it backwards too. From a lifetime of looking at the $ with a higher value. This going to take some getting used to. I better get it straight, cause that's how it's gonna be now.

  158. @ben.roberts

    According to the sources on wiki, the "crime of 1873" was a giant hoax and ernest seyd was a bimetallism advocate. And the bill to demonetize silver had been overwhelmingly passed in 1871 before ernest seyd ever came to america.


    Where does silver shield get his sources?

  159. Silver spot:

    Volume on today's morning raid is about half the volume of yesterday's raid. Is that because NY closes early today? Or because traders are already taking the day off for the long weekend?

    Anyhow, I am pretty sure that low volume means higher silver spot close. I will be watching all day.

  160. Abbyfield,
    Thank you VERY MUCH! ..This is information that I need. We were just talking about a food dehydrator over the past weekend. It's my next step...along with canning this summer. I appreciate your timely posts as I will now be in the market to get a dehydrator. You gave me the extra push that I needed to take it from just my thought processes to actually doing it!

    Thanks so much and I will check out the YouTube info as well.

  161. If anyone is looking for a gem that's been flying under the radar I strongly believe Argonaut Gold is a company to take a look at. Management is essentially that of Meridian Gold, which was the target of a $billion+ takeover a few years ago. Management is back and attempting to build another mid-tier producer. Lots of cash, no debt and a great road map to success...

  162. Turd,

    What silver options do you use, SLV or futures?

  163. @california lawyer

    i can't answer this with any scientific proof, but the city seems quiter today, lotta of places are half-running

  164. About dehydrators - the gold standard is definitely the Excalibur. I also have a round stacking American Harvester. I find the round stacking one better for dehydrating kale and collards and other leafy stuff because you can pile the leaves on a tray and then push down another tray on top of it.

    But if you only get one and can afford it - get an Excalibur. And then maybe a cheaper round one...

  165. This guy has put together a heck of a site with tons of research dedicated toward mining company reviews.

  166. Ginger said...
    Thank you for that link Robert Leroy Parker. "Monetary Accident"... I'm not so sure..


  167. @psycho

    Argonaut is not under the radar. I and others have mentioned it many times here in the past.

  168. Thanks Eric#1...On the surface it seems almost absurd regarding negative yields.
    Thanks for the insight.

  169. @ Robert Leroy Parker

    You really believe everything you read on Wikipedia? You don't think that there is a chance that the true story may not be on Wikipedia?

    Where do YOU get your sources from? :)

  170. @SSK

    I have been frustrated with SLW as well but there is no way im selling before earnings may 9th.
    There has been no reports of trouble at any of their mines as far as I know. Their cashflow must be insane with this quarters silverprice.
    Someone wrote that miners might want better deals fram Wheaton now. That's probably true but they have grown so much so fast that im okey with them just collecting and paying out dividends. If they do then they might become very popular with pensionfunds.

  171. Just my opinion, but if you are storing grains in oxygen flushed mylar bags, you are going about it wrong, unless you are planning to use the grain in 20 years. You need to be using and rotating through your supply. The time when you need it is the wrong time to figure out how to start incorporating it into your daily routine. Now is the time to get habits of milling and baking ingrained (sorry, pun).

  172. SSK,
    I decided to ride it out, sold my small portion of SVM yesterday at 14.3 so I have around 25-30% dry powder for next week. So my slw@43.3 and gpl@4.04 is still in the red.
    Im thinking they cant sell (short) forever, this has to stop sometime. Hopefully we are in some kind of bottoming process, test of exhaustion etc. I feel like mine is tested to the limits.

  173. Ginger
    You're post has me confused. Did I say something harsh? Didn't mean to at all. "/

  174. MM - Are you in the camp that thinks there will be a delay between QE2/3? If thats the case, that might be a solid short term play (admittedly I've been thinking about as well).


    Yes sir I am.

  175. psycho

    I own Argonaut, and have mentioned it here. Still one I love, unlike a lot of the rest of the dogs in my kennel right now.

  176. @Scott

    The wiki article cites 10 sources including newspapers and congressional records. Can I get 1 from you or silver shield? Don't insult my intelligence by insinuating I do not know there are problems with wikipedia. But why the hell should I believe silver shield...

  177. The nice thing about Argonaut is that it has already gone through a period of funk, and now appears to be coming back to life. That's a nice spot to be in.

  178. @Eric...

    When I bought AR back in Sept there wasn't hardly anyone buying so it's good to see that it's gaining a little attention but I think it is still flying under the radar in relation to BIG money.

  179. @ Awful

    At 10:14, you chastised “XTY”; I've incurred her wrath a few times myself (my first two posts here were deemed “disingenuous”). She never apologized to me for being “snarky” as she just did @upto, but my mama always told me.. well, never mind what she told me. I don't know if you are a troll or not, as you were just accused of, since I have only been here a couple of months, but my search for your posts over the past week reveal well intentioned posts IMO. Thanks to you for saying what perhaps needed to be said. And remember that even the bully's have their followers and goons.


    I have been trading metals, financials and Ag futures on OptionsXpress for years in one of my accounts. They are not the best, but their streaming charts are “real time”,support staff is very responsive and you can trade with them 24 hrs/day.

  180. Xaritas,

    Yes, the grains stored in mylar are for very long term storage, or whenever the need arises. Otherwise the mylar and buckets and oxygen absorbers are a fair expense if you're just going to use it in a year.

    I agree - learn to use what you store. Buy a hand-crank grinder and get grinding and baking, or soaking and cooking. There is a big steep learning curve to all of this.

  181. Corey Rosenbloom warning traders about calling a top in silver:

    "Look at these ETF Charts SLV ZSL Before Calling a Top in Silver"

  182. GDX about to test the low for the day. Boy, no one saw this coming.

  183. Silver's in a huge cup since 1980. Perhaps as we reach around 50 again...we'll have that correction which will paint a huge "handle"....then, up after that? Just pontifications at this point.

    Below is an interesting article which shows the huge cup formation. Also of interest, the author shows how volatility was much higher in '80 at silver peaked...indicative of the end of a move. The volatility today as we approach the half century mark....much lower than 1980s volatility. Here's the article link :

  184. America, get ready, the truth is being spoken so plainly. Our nation will fall apart. Simon & Garfunkel wrote "A Bridge over Trouble Water" We need a bridge over trouble water. Aretha Franklin later put a soulful touch to it. We are in trouble and 90% of America will fall to the way side. There will be no middle class as we know it today. I BEG EVERYONE - We need a bridge over trouble water. That bridge must be food, shelter, water, guns, ammo. Then silver and gold. SAIL ON SILVER.

  185. The nice mail man just dropped off a tube of Maples I ordered last week. Boy oh boy is they pret-tay!

    So, like, raid unsuccessful? I thought the take down would be much more drastic. Or will they try to sneek it in on Monday on light volume?

  186. lj stick around and you'll think of that drop as normal, expected, and really, not all that much of a dip.

  187. @Rob

    How long would the handle be expected to play out on a chart pattern of that time frame? Years?

  188. Eric!..NO!! ...You didn't say anything harsh.. I was kidding.. ...Sorry.. my weird sense of humor kicking in.. ...Just telling you that I refuse to believe that you don't want a slice of CZN.... so I 'changed that in my head' :D ...Meaning if someone does or says something that I disagree with.. I just pretend you agree with me.. ....OH nevermind! LOL.. I'm digging myself in deeper! :D:D ..........It's a gift I have...


    But I was just being silly.. ..and didnt' make that clear I s'pose.. ..Either that.. or the bacon is lodged in your ears and you didn't hear me right. :D

    Ok.. I'm going to go work now before I get myself in real trouble. :]

  189. Pablo...

    All the cheap scales you find at head shops will measure grams & avoirdupois ounces only.

    Look for professional quality digital scales in the $100-$200 range that lets you switch between grams, avoirdupois ounces, troy ounces, grains, carats, etc. At least displaying 0.01g (accurate to +/- .005 g).

  190. I know there are tons of comments on where to buy silver/gold at the best prices but does anyone have any suggestions on where to sell when that time comes? People are paying $55/oz for silver eagles in monster boxes on ebay. The premium keeps rising as supply gets tighter.


    Everything I read is worthless in most places.

    When will the topics of Trust and Value be the basis of finance?

    When those we have placed Trust in is brought back to the Value they offer?