Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Bots and EE Simultaneously Attack

First of all, I greatly apologize for the site being down yet again. I enrolled yesterday in the site "Alexa" with surveys the site and measures the traffic. Perhaps the overload of traffic that is crashing the site is due to an initial Alexa survey? Maybe. Of course, when the crash of the site coincides perfectly with a crash in gold and silver, it sure makes me wonder.

The reason given for the smash of gold and silver is the testimony of The Bernank. Hmmmm. Of course, stocks aren't down very much. Hmmmm. Look, Santa has warned us repeatedly that there is extreme volatility coming. Today's action is certainly a part of that trend. If you can't stomach the volatility, I suggest you completely avoid trading and only use the big dips like today for adding to your stack.

That said, I guess we now know what the EE has been planning to do with all of their leased silver. Lost in the madness of yesterday was a drop in the 1-month rate to -0.48%. Since we've been discussing this possible "raid" indicator here for weeks, today's drop should really come as no surprise. Let's see now if $34-34.50 can hold. I suspect that it might not. $33 will be a possible floor as that is a significant level and it would represent a roughly 10% drop from the highs of yetserday. Even $31 is not out of the question, though.

Gold is getting punished, too, but should find a solid floor between 1680 and 1705.

Please be patient and try to keep your wits about you. Silver is going much, much higher from here. Later this week, we will discuss some extraordinary, new fundamentals that will drive prices. I know it's tough but try to hang in there and enjoy the ride.  TF

35 comments:

  1. Not sure you get in Pinig's club posting here, but I think yours is a legitimate first post--after an update by Turd.

    Site seems to be back down... I am going to go for a walk!

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  2. We are here Turd! Not sweating this a bit. Hope you get your site up and running ASAP. But yes, it is weird that the smackdown and your site takedown happen simultaneously.

    HeNateMe

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  3. Yes and it's very frustrating.
    I can't stress enough that this type of volatility must be expected to continue. However, please continue to stack, particularly on days like this.
    By late this week, I hope to share from very exciting information with everyone. Hang in there.

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  4. Turd, I think you're on to something with the lease rates. It's almost getting to be a red flag.

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  5. Nice little FUBM developing, I hope they exhausted most of their shorts on this take down.

    What a buying opportunity.

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  6. Funny, I used to remember some posts mysteriously disappearing from blogspot, and wouldn't you know it. Just happened again, right after UK-Stacker's post.

    Anyway, the only thing I can do to help "the cause" after a waterfall event like this is to remove 500oz of RCM silver bars from my favorite supplier. I'm fine with $34.75 spot + $1.39 premium. One of these days, I'll have to use Tulvig, but APMEX is so convenient and it's easier to BTFD.

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  7. Mea culpa. I went about 85% in this morning, including some SLV JUN 42 calls. This is apparently what the algos and EE have been waiting for!!

    My bad.

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  8. I just received this email from a concerned Turdite:

    Turd
    my RJ obrien broker just called me. he never calls me. I have a large PM account (in options). he told me that someone on the floor-a trader-told him that a sizeable amount of contracts were dumped in the span of 2 mins in the silver market. He thinks it was 10,000 contracts=50,000,0000 oz of silver. He first thought it was 100M of oz, but it was JP morgan that dumped them. Or a hedge fund tied into JP morgan. I wanted to pass this on to you because it's critical data point coming right from the floor.

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  9. So,what are you sayin' Turd, you don't think JPM really has 50,000,000 OZ of silver??? ;)

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  10. ... now all those who have been calling .30 cent declines "raids" have a real raid to talk about. Not all that surprised at the sell-off considering how quickly silver moved up recently and through strong technical resistance as if it weren't even there, though I am a little shocked at how low we went and how quickly it happened. Not going to complain too much though, we're already well off of the lows and looking to start playing around in the $35.50ish area again. Maybe this time $36 will be the line in the sand like it should have been last time, I'd feel more comfortable moving up from there after building a stronger base to rise from.

    PS- Booyah to blogger as a backup when the site goes down ha ha, been a while since I saw an Along The Watchtower entry pop-up in my feed. Just realized Turd has used it a few others times recently as well, going to have to remember to check in here anytime the site goes down!

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  11. I'd been waiting to add to my yellow stack, so I took the opportunity - on the first small dip, then the biiiiiig one, then on the (hopefully) last one. Out of ammo now so hope we've finished dipping for today.

    The amount of euphoria on the blog yesterday was a warning sign to some, so today wasn't a great surprise.

    Hope the main site gets sorted soon, Turd. I'm sure you could do without this extra hassle.

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  12. Thanks for the update Turd.

    I haven't been following you much in the past few weeks for a number of reasons, primarily because I've been deemed to be part of an inner circle of terrorists that want to take over and/or ruin your site. Don't laugh, it's not a joke. Check the Turdville Stasi's intelligence file, it will show that I have been found to be a very dangerous guy.

    Happy Leap Year and good luck to all well-intentioned human beings that might still be lurking here.

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  13. It certainly does look like we were played. The cartel knew what Bernanke would say/not say and what effect it would have on the algos. They timed their punch just right.

    However, a $2 move in silver is not as big a deal as it was. We'll be back at $36 soon enough and we'll break through it again and head higher.

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  14. Gil--LOL I am also the boogey man! Tough telling the truth, the Turd gets furious when that happens. All hail the silver paper trades! Must have lost shirts today.

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  15. about march 20th, graham summers[don't have a url]

    Germany Will Force Greece Out or Walk... Either Way a Collapse is Coming

    The situation in Europe has now reached the point that the major players have shown their hands. And they are:

    1) Germany will not put up more money unless Greece essentially passes up its fiscal sovereignty.

    2) The G20 will not give more money to Europe via the IMF unless Germany and other EU nations create a "firewall" by putting more capital into the ESM mega-fund.

    3) The ECB has announced Greek bonds are not eligible collateral for its LTRO operations, so if banks need immediate liquidity, they need to go to national central banks (read Germany).

    This is quite a turn of events. Prior to this, the ECB and Germany were seen to be working hand in hand (aside from the usual political spats) to save Europe. But between the ECB's decision to swap out its Greek debt for new debt that won't take a hit in the event of Greek default as well as its recent rejection of Greek debt as collateral for LTRO loans, it appears that the ECB is increasingly going to make Europe's problems Germany's problems.

    Both parties have a lot to lose in this battle. Over a quarter of the ECB's balance sheet is made up of PIIGS debt. And German banks have plenty of exposure to the PIIGS as well.

    This is why both entities (the ECB and Germany) have made moves to firewall themselves from a European fall-out. However, it is Germany that appears to have realized the reality of the situation more clearly: that there is no "good" way out of this mess, that austerity measures only cripple economic growth and make defaults even more likely, and that the Great Euro experiment is coming to an end.

    This is most clear in the fact that Germany doesn't want to commit more funds to the ESM mega-fund. It's also illustrated by Germany's intense demands of Greece, demands it knows Greece won't possibly go for (which begs the question, "is Germany trying to simply force Greece out of the Euro without having to explicitly call for its exit?).

    After all, Germany has its own problems to deal with. German banks are some of the most highly leveraged in Europe. And when you include unfunded liabilities, German Debt to GDP is north of 200%.

    Plus you have an increasingly outraged German populace (the majority of them don't want a second Greek bailout) putting pressure on German politicians. Indeed, the only political points German leaders have scored in the last few months have come from playing hardball with Greece.

    So...

    Germany is in a great squeeze. On one side the ECB and G20 want Germany to step up with more money to save Europe. On the other hand, German CEOs, voters, and even the courts, are increasingly wanting out of the Euro.

    This is not a situation that gives one much confidence that Germany will stick around for too much longer. It is my view Germany is going to do all it can to force Greece out of the Euro before March 20th (the date that the next round of Greek debt is due) or will simply pull out of the Euro (but not the EU) itself.

    graham summers

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  16. Hang tough gang. This too shall pass.

    Peace and Aloha

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  17. Fellow traders
    Heed Turds words. Be patient here. We are probably not finished yet even at 34.50. That 33.73 did look attractive though but I expect we will go lower before we go higher. Just my 2 euros.

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    Replies
    1. "just my two euros"
      hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

      Delete
  18. Alexa did not bring the site down. From Alexa's faq:

    Where does Alexa get the traffic data?

    Alexa gets its traffic data, including reach, page views and rank information, from a global panel of web users. The panel is used as a statistical sample of Internet usage to extrapolate overall traffic patterns and web usage information. The panel consists of Alexa Toolbar users and other sources web usage information. Details about Alexa’s traffic data can be found on Alexa.com.

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  19. no point loosing time & energy by drawing lines and looking for supports & resistances and all that crap

    important is too mark dates like this in your calendar (bernake is speaking, options expiry, first day notice or last day notice and so on) and then be prepared for those days

    as only fundamentals are what matters and that is - silver & gold will be heading higher

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  20. Stocks are now green on the day.
    It is clear that this is nothing but a complete, coordinated raid on the metals. Here is a followup email from the same Turdite:
    His floor broker confirmed that JPM dumped 10,000 contracts of Gold, not silver, within 2 minutes, with complete disregard for price. This had the desired effect of the waterfall decline.
    This has only created a bargain for us.
    We will act soon to the buy the dip.

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. this is geTTing easier and easier. just BTFD. great insight there mrF. 10K contracts w/o a care is something special...wonder what else they have up their slEEve. don't think for a minute they are done with Ag. today sale is almost 5 bucks. 37.50 - 33.75.. i stiLL think they try and break 30...but i wiLL niBBle a liTTle this afternOOn at the LCS regardleSS....got a few '64 JFK's to pick up...

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  23. Too much downside volatility, time to raise margin requirements! Imagine the silver sale if the CME played that card again soon, I'd be all over it like Ron Paul flashing coins during Fed testimony.

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  24. Embalmer Allegedly Stole Gold Crowns From The Dead
    LONGMONT, Colo. (CBS4) – A man who was working as an embalmer says he stole from the dead in order to support his family.

    Adrian Kline, 43, of Brighton, is accused of removing gold crowns from the teeth of dead people and then selling them. He turned himself in last Friday.
    LINK
    After a body is cremated, any metal — including dental work — is usually removed from the remains to be recycled. Kline claims he only took the gold crowns that were going to be thrown away at the funeral homes, but one funeral home manager in Brighton said Kline was fired after jewelry belonging to a deceased man went missing.

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  25. trying to play safe in this market...its like....pulling teeth

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  26. From a watchlist of about 60 miners I follow....all down today except remarkably , two,....
    Pretium (up 2.7%) and Premier gold (up 2 %)

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  27. It's amazing what the talking heads are saying on the business channels. CNBC bull$hit spewing that the metals dropped because the Benny DID NOT mention QE3 or any other form of "easing". The only reason I'm watching CNBC is because I can't get Bloomberg or FBN (they seem to suck the least).

    Well, they have to put a pretty bow around it somehow from their normal list of excuses to make it look like a normal drop. They never talk about the market mechanic of the drop, like the info that Turd got from the trading on the floor.

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  28. Yesterday's gains in my miner shares were 90% wiped out by the today's actions.

    At least I was able to sell a bit of my Cream Minerals (CMA.V/CRMXF) for a real nice 40% gain, and buy some Great Basin Gold (GBG) at .883. This stop has collapsed since they missed there production estimates and haven't gotten the Burnstone going yet. This can't stay down forever!

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  29. Yup.....massive WHIPSAW REVERSAL ...but not surprizing ....is anybody surprized by the game anymore?
    Gold pushed down thru 1700 today, shows you what the Cartel thinks of 1700. Yesterday, 1700 looked like a fading train station....here we are again.
    This is the Game. Jim Sinclair says today.... dont worry about the price action and the game ,like today, as in,pay no attention to the wizard behind the curtain.
    ok...... well, technically, the move today does NOT look finished yet. Its only wave A with the next wave B amd C to follow, more down before its done ...targets down look like 1650 gold,maybe lower. and silver 32 again....like we could envision last week or two. After out heads stop spinning, the targets will re appear more clear.
    Yesterday, I posed the question....Does the Cartel have no more power to play their game? Today , we got the answer.
    target 1650 gold 32 silver maybe 1630 gold 30 silver
    Yes,buy the 'dip' But What 'dip' the dip to 1735?? like Turd was looking at ? or the dip to 1650 ? wheres the dip you wanna buy. 1700 is here now. paying 80 bucks more for a gold coin probably doesnt matter in the long run if its going to become a 10 thousand dollar coin in a few years. same with silver . 34, 32, 30, what difference will it make.

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  30. finland approves greek bailout this AM.

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  31. Doh! Just back home & see there was yet another dip....no fiat left today anyhow. Will just have to take comfort from stroking my shiny stuff.

    Got on to the web site briefly just now but couldn't get into the current thread....'offline'

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  32. Trader Dan's take on today. After reading this, I think I had things backwards in my earlier comment. The Cartel didn't take advantage of the Fed's comments, I think it acted at the Fed's behest to take down the metals and Bernanke provided the cover story.

    http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

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  33. seeking men

    how do I make money
    Prahok is prepared using fresh fish (both large and small). Typically, the larger the fish, the more valuable the Prahok made from it. Some types are rarer than others and the rarest are considered delicacies, thus are more expensive. One of the pricier types is one made from the gourami fish.

    ReplyDelete