Like silver, you can expect gold to see some follow-through selling overnight Sunday into Monday or Tuesday. You may see gold trade down to 1345-50 but that ought to be it.
What will be most interesting is to see how it reacts as it rebounds back toward 1390 (where it was just a few hours ago, I might add). You can be certain that Blythe will be waiting with nearly unlimited paper gold to sell at 1385. She and her flying monkey brigade will do everything in their power to paint a head-and-shoulders top on the chart in an attempt to constrain price for a while longer. See below:
My best guess is that she will be successful, at least in the very short term. Like silver, gold will rebound with the help of $33,000,000,000 in POMO next week. With Blythe sitting squarely upon it, gold will most likely be range bound between 1345-85 until after Thanksgiving. We'll then finally blow back through 1400 by 12/1 as that first week of December sees another $35,000,000,000 in POMO.
Cyclist (think of cycles), THE famous poster at Kitco, also since decades in the markets, has a low for markets around 18th .. that comes close to your projection.
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteThanks a ton for starting your blog. Do you still see gold hitting 1500 by 12/10.
The technical damage that Blythe inflicted over the past three days is significant but there's no sense in changing my mind now.
ReplyDeleteI crunched the numbers back in July and came up with 1350 by Halloween and 1500 by 12/10/10. I sticking to it!
Hi Turd,
ReplyDeletehave bookmarked your blog. I post on ZH as Max UK.
I find these markets impossible to time. Time and again, the dip comes just after I made a major purchase. Yeah it will pay in the end, but I could have bought more ounces had timing been better.
By the time my funding was in place (with Goldmoney.com), we were near the silver top already. I bought in small packets on the intra day dips over two days, waiting for a big dip, but reluctant to sit on the sidelines. Just after my last purchase, then the price tanked. Two days of effort wasted. Very humbling.
If we look at gold, I think that there have been a number of mini parabolic runs that gets everybody panicked into 'not missing the train.' I thought that this silver run was going to go like a rocket, but same old, same old.
The cartel have convinced me that they can continue to overwhelm rallies in the short term. We can count on their motivation and resources to keep doing so as it is the oligarchy in survival mode. I think Jim Sinclair is right in that we may soon see gold swing hundreds of dollars in a day, and by inference, commensurate violence in silver.
My message to anybody is to ALWAYS leave some of their powder dry, for dips that if history is a guide, will come. My average cost per silver ounce shot up far more this week than was necessary.
Silver fell over 10% in three days this week; I moot that parabolic runs up will always be a prelude to a big correction. Everybody likes your posts because you actually try to quantify the inflection points.
Good luck with the blog. This market needs nerves of steel, and the blog helps to build camaraderie. Brothers in arms & all that.
Fractal man Nichols ...
ReplyDeleteFractal Gold Report for November 13, 2010
By David Nichols
Throughout this big growth pattern, gold has shown a tricky tendency to extend the counter-moves during its corrections up to new highs — making it look like the pattern is about to go ballistic — only to see it all come tumbling down soon after.
And I fall for it every time. You’d think I’d learn.
First off, let’s establish right up-front that this is not a big deal, except right now in the short-term, which is unfortunately — as far as the markets — where we all live our day-to-day lives. But if we step back just a little, we see that this is all part of the November consolidation period that I have been anticipating all along. It has just developed in a form that is more difficult to interpret in real-time, but quite easy to recognize with even just a bit of hindsight.
We can look back and see how the last few corrections have developed, and how the ultimate resolution was back to the upside — with a vengeance, too.
It’s clear now that the November retracement/consolidation period is actually still developing, but along a more bullish path. It looks now like the period from Day 65 to Day 86, coming up this Thursday, is going to be a month-long (21 trading day) sideways period, characterized by a sine-wave-like oscillation of down-up-down that ultimately ends up right about where it started.
The point of this consolidation period is to get the weekly fractal dimension a bit higher, after the lengthy
I know it’s easy to believe the worst when gold gets roughed up like this, but this weekly gold chart is amazingly bullish. This correction right now is very likely the last chance to get any sort of “pull-back bargain price” before gold gets sucked into the upside vortex.
So personally I am going to use this dip to build a full position, up to what I deem to be the max leverage for this type of inherently volatile pattern, in preparation for the final run. There could be lingering issues for gold out until Thursday, but most of the pull-back has already happened, except for perhaps $10 more of weakness as gold roots around for a bottom over the next few days.
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Thursday fits exactly with Cyclists take, and fits with Turds - and most important fits with TA as both Gold and Silver will be at major support. So that support lines will be bought like crazy. If we get there.
Good info Goldhamster; that is the right context for my own experiences.
ReplyDeleteI buy 'n' hold with physical metal, and trade with virtual metal. I use Goldmoney for silver, and Bullionvault for gold, due to the respective charging structures.
I can recommend Bullionvault to anybody seeking to churn some gold holdings, to buy dips and sell on peaks. This process if successful, succeeds to lower your cost per ounce through time. There is a 0.8% commission both on buying and selling. If you set your spreads at 5% or more, then there is money to be made. It is easy to configure it to your intentions, then you can leave it to do its thing.
It is an internal market, so none of the players need to buy or sell at spot price, there is that caveat. But it is a fantastic site for us rookies, with great functionality. You need not ever miss a spike or dip again; you don't need to be manning your account in real time.
This past year wasn't so volatile, and this game needs volatility. But I think that everybody agrees that volatility is coming up.
Thanks, guys.
ReplyDeleteI really appreciate your input.
King world News Interview with Jim Sinclair ... Gold to Swing $100 to $300 in a Day
ReplyDeletehttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/11/12_Jim_Sinclair_-_Gold_to_Swing_%24100_to_%24300_in_a_Day.html
One of my sources says "Shorts that don't cover at the open will pay higher prices to cover later".
ReplyDeleteAnd he says the spike north in Gold comes Tuesday and not as of Wednesday as most expect. Wednesday Shorts will need medical attention.
And he says gold will again be stronger then silver.
And he says for the first step HUI 790 and Dollar 10% lower.
Over more than a year following my source I have learned NOT to ignore his calls which are most the time very accurate. Deep pocket folk with good connections - the latter is a guess.
And btw he says silver 36 and guesses gold around 2200.
DYOD.
what is all along the watchtower ??? thx
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