Thursday, May 5, 2011

Maybe?

Though surely can't give you a bottom call with the certainty of "Turd's Bottom" back in January, if we are to have any hope that silver will halt its decline and reverse, it will happen here. This is a re-post of the chart I posted this morning.
As you know, it is useless to use traditional technical analysis in grossly manipulated markets such as the PMs. Regardless, we have to try to find spots where buyers might emerge, cause a reversal that leads to some short-squeezing and then, eventually, allow the market to stabilize.

IF we are going to see that happen with any kind of predictability, it will happen in the area around $34.
The POSX has finally "calvined" and has already moved to it's first resistance level around 74.50.
Gold is now $100 off of its high set on Monday (3 days ago).
Crude is down almost 10% on the day and is back under $100/bbl.

Everything that I would traditionally look at for a bottom is in place. Now, will it happen? Unfortunately, its impossible to say. The extent of the long-side liquidation is enormous and cycling (more selling leads to more margin calls which leads to more selling which leads to more margin calls...).

However, maybe just maybe, silver will bottom overnight around 34 and then trade higher. The BLS BS "disappoints" and the dollar sells off, back under 74. The metals turn and actually finish tomorrow in the green. We'll see. I'm hopeful but not necessarily optimistic.

Hang in there. TF

ps This note from Trader Dan is fantastic. Sounds like he needs to get drunk, too.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/collusion-by-fed-officials-and.html

244 comments:

  1. No joke, this is what my fortune cookie said today:
    YOU WILL HAVE GOLD PIECES BY THE BUSHEL
    That's it baby, it's a sign, I'm going all!

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  2. Thanks for the encouraging update Turd, we're hanging in there. We're immensely grateful you provide us all this, for free.

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  3. Sleeping with my fingers and toes crossed tonight.

    My bullion guy wasn't thrilled to see me today selling after calling in yesterday to lock my sell price at $40.

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  4. You would anticipate that the breakdown in the commod trade is going to be accompanied by a multi month dollar move here... this should position Ben for the political cover to institute QE3...silver hopefully will form a very obvious basing pattern....dunno if we get a good bounce here but with monday margin req....ya gotta think this has further to unwind....gl

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  5. Look beyond just the Silver chart folks. The "shitty economy" trade is on. Stocks are dropping, commodities are dropping, bonds are rising, even the dollar is coming back some.

    When The Bernak said he was ending QE2 in June, lots of people said it was the only thing holding up the markets and they would crash, taking the economy with it. Fast forward a week and the markets are crashing and taking the economy with it.

    For now, the dollar is perceived as the safe place to go, not the Euro or Yen. When The Bernak says "dropping commodity prices signal inflation is not a problem" and announces QE2 extension , QE2+, QE2.1, or QE3 or whatever it will be called, to help get the economy back on track and fund the Federal deficit, the safe place will again be PMs.

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  6. I had a very strange phone call from a TDAmeritrade account representative, locally, who said that he was assigned to my account. I do not trade on margin, so I am not used to ever getting calls with regard to my account.

    He said that he was surprised that I only had equities in my account and he asked if I ever used fixed-income or options. I told him that I had experience with options, but as my timing was bad, I preferred a longer-term buy-and-hold strategy and to ignore volatility fluctuations. He was telling me about their great resources and that they could teach me to use options to profit when the market was down or sideways. I told him that I knew enough about options and was satisfied with self-managing my account, and that got rid of him.

    I guess they are just trying to drum up more business, with higher premiums for any broker-directed stuff, but I thought it was very strange. I also don't like the idea of someone just randomly pulling up my account and perusing it.

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  7. hey all, hang in there. most of us have lost a lot. I was careless and lost way more than I should have. Bernanke was taking on Monday about NOT reinvesting maturing treasuries. The Bin Laden closure might prompt the US to pull out of both Iraq and Afganistan and stem the hemorrhaging of cash. Check out Gonzalo Lira's latest post. This is why the Dollar has a bid right now and PM and commodities are under liquidation. It can go further, but won't last forever. The structural problems for the US are still there. Pulling out of the wars will still leave the US a $1 Trillion deficit opposed to $1.5 Trillion. The economy and housing markets aren't getting any better. Yes, the decline can go further but being in PMs is the right place to be to protect yourself. Don't leverage, Don't try to get your money back quickly, just participate in owning whatever share of PMs you can afford. Hopefully I can follow my own advice. :) Best wishes All. Godspeed.

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  8. Turd, post more threads (just blank), too many comments otherwise

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  9. A big fatty works in these types of situations.

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  10. I am considering buying this kilo kookaburra coin from 2009. What do you guys think? Worth it?

    http://www.apmex.com/Product/43877/2009_Australian_Kookaburra___KILO_Size_Silver_Coin.aspx

    I love these giant silver coins. Mmmm. Delicious!

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  11. "Evil said...
    Important Update

    I'm going to risk coming out of hiding on unsecure wifi for 3 minutes because this needs to be said asap. I already think they know I post here. But I have to risk it.

    There is something going on, above my level, secret meeting with top level idk what's going on but I have a really bad feeling. DJIA/S&P not long for this world next week, latest projections DJIA 10,500 May 13.

    Consider putting your 401K or IRA in stable options or cash.

    Most important get some cash out of the bank. Get six or twelve months worth out and keep it somewhere safe. Do it now
    "
    -------------------------------

    What's going to happen exactly? Does it have something to do with the Israel-Iran stuff getting leaked on 4chan?

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  12. If 34 doesn't hold, I'm out. If we get a rally tomorrow that breaks downwards again, I'm out.

    All in all, I'm probably out tomorrow. But for the off-chance that I've actually waited long enough to see some money come back, I'm willing to risk some more.

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  13. I know lots of MSMs read this blog. Can one of you make up a good rumor, so I can short the fucking CME back for spite?

    Phantom

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  14. WTF is happening? Is this another 2008 meltdown? Is it?

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  15. ewc said: (from last thread)
    "It's darkest before dawn, don't anyone do anything stupid (unless you already have :-)"

    Ok... don't know why but that made me LOL. :D ...I think it's safe to say ewc, that most of us are in the already have column. lol.

    I am out of my USO calls. Couldn't handle the heat in that kitchen. Kept my UNGs.

    Eric,
    Sure... Mrs. Eric#1 might be swell and understanding ..but how's it going with all those OTHER Mrs. Erics ?? ;)

    Ok.. Is this 'Evil' person for real? ...I always fall into the 'way too naieve' category ..but why would you choose the online name of 'Evil' if you were someone up to any good. ? Spooky stuff he posts.

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  16. Turd, Why is the 29-30 area not stout support? To me it looks stronger than 34... granted most of what I know I learned here.

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  17. ***I mean Most of what I think I know.

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  18. Well, this is the very last comment rom the last post! here goes...

    I saw the CNBC midday report, too...Terranova was saying this seemed to be near or at bottom. Maybe nibble. One guy, Valequez (?) was opposite, crowing about a continuing dollar rally.

    I was reviewing my purchases and with my earlier purchases, I figure, that in spite of my high buys in the 45.83 and 43.70 range (inc. premiums)I'm probably in at an average price of $30 or so. A bit disappointing, but I'm still alive! But, I could have had OH, so many more ounces on those last to purchases, the highest being y largest single purchase. I only have a small amount I want to put in to reach 20% hedge, and am looking for gold to do it. I'd love to get gold closer to 1450 and may have bought if I had been around when it hit 1462 today....
    This is so nervewracking.

    Also, this AM I bough more GG and EGO to round out a trading position (have lower core on both), only to see GG really get hit hard.

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  19. The sad part about this scenario is the frickin fools go straight to the dopey worthless dollar when the markets and commodities tank. In a logical sane world, no matter which way the markets went, stocks, bonds, futures, options, and whatever, they would first secure their money in silver and gold and not anything else, when the markets are this irrational. Only the sane rational logical person knows this and does this. The rest are suffering from one form or another of mind control, brainwashing, or some other kind of ignorance or misinformation.

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  20. Yep. Just checked. Still the same number of ounces in the safe as last week. Actually, the same number of ounces since Turd's bottom. If the price gets much lower, I will probably add more.

    Feliz Cinco de Mayo.

    ¡Salud!

    Don Plata

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  21. From previous thread...

    Silver hasn't bottomed.

    That tiniest of FUBM you see at 4pm was all the day shorts closing their positions so as not to be at risk overnight. It's no indication of anything. It's typical and the small size of it should be telling.

    We may or may not get any blue-up from Asia, but we'll definitely get more red-down from London and COMEX in anticipation of that jobs numbers. Then the market will go where it goes. Or where it's lead.


    This Is Important ---
    At ALL TIMES sell a silver rally when the monthly chart shows RSI of 80+. I mean truly go flat on silver. Hell, take a small short on for fun if you want to play. It's that juicy. RSI 80 was broken through each of the major silver crashes - 2004, 2006 and (lucky us) 2011. That's called a macro indicator. I should have known better, as I'm no idiot, and in the back of my head I knew these things from macro XAU trading last year.

    Hindsight now. But there will be a next time for those of us that still have trading accts. And we'll all be talking about how "today it's different, silver is a game-changer" etc. Those things will be true too. But the rest of the world that controls paper looks at these things and laughs and laughs while they take all our paper. If you're in paper, you're in their world and need to heed the big paper warning signs. Let's try to help each other with this huge dodge signal next time.

    Monthly RSI 80. GET OUT NOW!
    Got it?


    @CurbYourMalthusiasm
    I'm not crazy about any of those four plays. My play, if I was gambling, would be to short the hard currencies against USD and be long CHF/USD for balance. I wouldn't play paper metal at all. That can/will bounce a lot on go forward. Day trading would have to be really nimble, buy/hold would have to have a really long horizon and be strictly bargain hunting on the buys. But I'm not gambling right now. I'm hunkering down for potential 2008 Part Deux. If I'm wrong, then I'll just put all that cash back in the bank and regroup for more fun and profit.

    If you must keep trading paper XAG...SELL 5min RSI 80 and BUY 5min RSI 20. Understand that you can/will get trapped on either side of this, so go flat if you've got to hit the john, pick up the wife, or catch a movie. Don't leave positions open while you're asleep, or over the weekend either. Until things normalize, if you trade XAG, you're putting your (once) full account value at risk.

    I'll be doing exactly above, but only short and close w/long to hedge and spec against my PSLV core. Consider it covered short-selling. RSI 80 at the top is tasty enough that I will risk making a few extra on spec too. NOT A RECOMMENDATION for others though :)

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  22. Whatever happened to that "buy silver, crash JP Morgan" strategy? I'm guessing that if you didn't protect yourself with puts, JP Morgan may have won this one...

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  23. Marcus,

    Look at the bright side of the 2008 meltdown. I pulled a recipt from my stash today. It read

    09/08/2008

    1 oz Maple leaf @ 16.00
    1996 1 oz eagle @ 16.00
    Morgan $ @ 15.00

    It's not all bad!

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  24. From the last thread, and this is INDEPENDENT of my physical position... only relates to paper trading.

    I was thinking about something Fleve said regarding everyone piling into ZSL and shorting every long ETF out there...

    Given the internet, the ability for ANYONE to trade in near real time, the advent of ETFs, leveraged ETFs, options... and I think we'll get a "bathtub" effect on any run up, and, as we are seeing, on the run DOWNS! This is surely true in all of history, but not at the same speed/velocity that we have today. This was not even possible yet with the dot com bubble and certainly not the housing bubble, but it is today. Add to all this is what Leonard just said, "No, your cabbie may not have bought silve yet, but ONE person HERE using 100x leverage fills the bill as YOU plus 99 cab drivers!

    What I mean is this: a small wave starts at one end of the bath tub. People start to pile in over the internet and the wave builds and then people pile into leverage and ETFs like AGQ and before you know it, you have a tsunami building in the tub until it hits the other side and even splashes over... but it doesn't stop there... the "investors" that "spalshed over the side" bail out... others stay long... but a LOT start piling THE OTHER WAY into ZSL and shorting everything they can short... so now the wave is racing BACK to the other side.

    Now, if the fundamentals were not on our side, I would say that would be the end of it for another decade/generation. But given that the fundos do appear to be on our side over the next 2-10+ years (but maybe not next 2-10 days, or 2-10 weeks), we will probably see that "short wave" splash up and over the original side, then everyone pile back into long and leveraged long positions and it might happen almost as quickly/violently as what we are going through now, but probably with not as much velocity as a LOT of people will now be broke or scared off.

    So, yes, I'm in ZSL now, but watching VERY closely to get back into long positions as soon as we have a day or two close a good chunk above the low of the previouse day.

    Also, as I've said before, equities haven't been "clubbed" yet, so I will be looking to "short" them with TWM.

    WHAT I'M REALLY GETTING AT IS THIS: DID WE JUST GO THROUGH A "FLASH BUBBLE" BETWEEN NOVEMBERISH AND NOW?

    I still think we go way up long haul wise because of fundos, but because of modern technology, ETFs, and leverage, we might have just had some kind of "flash bubble" within the larger cycle.

    Make sense?

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  25. KC....didn't I hear that Obama was NOT going to pull out of Afghanistan?

    I also heard a snippet about how the Pakistanis want us basically out of Pakistan except for "essential" U.S. military.

    What is this leaking on Channel 4? Which channel 4?? Israel-Iran?

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  26. Is it lost on anyone that as of right now Jul $70 SLV calls are priced at SIX CENTS! SIX CENTS!! ....Just a few days ago we were looking at silver being $65-$70 in June sometime!

    Turd,
    I know you can't possibly say (with any conviction) until we get a bottom that will hold... BUT.. are you comfortable in any way with thinking that a $70 SLV July call will be worth a bit more than .06 by July!?!

    Seems a no-brainer to me but I'm not buying yet. ..Just wondered what others here think of that pricing and potential. ..Turd did say that the next leg up would be a doosey ......but that was before we all had the perverbial rug pulled out from under us. ..Surely at some point though these SLV calls will help us make back the $ we lost. .....

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  27. Pailin, how can you find the RSI for spot silver? Or do you use the front month future?

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  28. I'm still holding onto my mining shares, except for Hecla (HL), which I dumped for a $950 loss, which doesn't look so bad now since my position currently would be a $1,600 loss.

    Hope it doesn't get much worse or else I'll just jump out of the 727 without a parachute next time.

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  29. Scottj88 said... "On a side note, while our financial portfolios may or may not be doing well, TPTB are creating something more dangerous than before. For you see, we are all growing because of this... whether you are able to step back and realize it now..."

    Evolution of the next generation of battle hardened warriors that will take $50 and march it up to triple digits?

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  30. I just fell for one of those **EVIL** type of posts with recent "news on a water fuel-cell car." I was skeptical, but I gave it a chance b/c in all honesty, I think these things exist and are suppressed by TPTB (or at the very least not encouraged to be financed by the ponzi scheme masters). Well, obviously it turns out it was a promotional scam and just playing on emotions.

    This "Evil" Person comes out and says "I am risking saying this on an un-secured wifi spot..." -- Well my logic says if he truly had that important of information, he wouldn't acknowledge he was on an unsecured network in relaying his message. What if people actually took notice and head his warning? Then his identity could quickly be discovered. He is full of shit, and is just some fear mongerer taking advantage of people during this time. Don't listen to illogical unspecified "doomsday scenarios."

    Yes, a lot of things could happen on the flip of a dime these days, as the world is propped up by an aristocratic banking elite intent on depriving the world of its wealth and grip its ugly hands on our freedom.

    If he was truly trying to be of help, he would not have worded it in such a way. I know that when I am trying to be compassionate about something serious that may be coming, I try to be as detailed and careful not to mess with people's emotions.

    If I created a name called AlQaeda and said "We will seek revenge..." would we be having this conversation?

    P.S. I am looking for gold to show me the way. Silver has been targeted by margins and all sorts of other things such as "bubble talk," but gold has been very interesting in the past days. I imagine the crude selloff hurt it bad, along with the silver downturn. However, we must remember, Gold could still be in the leading category for silver these days. Moreso than ever with silver being specifically "attacked."

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  31. Keep the faith, people. Many weak hands have been dumped out today. But the market is still in game on mode. Why?

    In October of 2008, the Comex had 132 million ounces of registered silver on hand. They are now down to 33 million ounces and draining fast. Let that sink in. THE COMEX HAS BURNED THROUGH 100 MILLION OUNCES OF SILVER IN 2 1/2 YEARS! They are down to scrap to keep going.

    If you thought people were going to buy when price was above $40, imagine what will happen if price bottoms at $34 an ounce. Or below $30. (!!!) I'm buying every scrap of silver I can if silver miraculously went below $30. Heck, I'm placing an order tonight if it manages to stay below $38.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED BUT OUR ABILITY TO READ THE MARKET IN THE SHORT SHORT TERM. You still get in when the entry point is low. You still buy low, sell high. Keep the faith, pick yourself up off the floor, and prepare for silver to bottom out. The Comex has months left. And then things get 'interesting'.

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  32. In Soviet Amerika, JP Morgue Crash YOU!!!

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  33. @55d28a48-775b-11e0-bde7-000bcdcb471e
    I use Netdania charts.
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

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  34. max keiser last seen with bleeding ass and drinking from a bottle of captain morgans

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  35. "As you know, it is useless to use traditional technical analysis in grossly manipulated markets such as the PMs".

    Precisely Turd, and every bit of this insanity,and the untold fortunes lost in this madness falls directly on the criminal bankers that manipulate all the markets. I just wish that most investors in all these markets would wake up and place the blame where it absolutely belongs. Get mad, get even, buy silver NOW !!!!

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  36. @Leonard said...
    In Soviet Amerika, JP Morgue Crash YOU!!!

    ------

    Haha ain't it the truth, in more ways than one

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  37. I think a good way to play from now on is use options on both sides of the fence and when one runs you keep it and sell the other

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  38. Marcus, I bought my main core of silver back in Feb of 2010, around $15.55 an ounce. Still have it, haven't touched it, and I'm STILL grinning ear to ear with silver above $30 an ounce.

    No, it can't be all bad. Trading silver is certainly different than holding physical. That is why some people are trying not to puke their guts out today while others are going to sleep very soundly on a physical stack of silver.

    Blythe and company are trying their best to spook out the longs before this moonshots back up. You think this price decline was 'volatile', wait until it reverses. The problem with manipulating markets is that they whipsaw up AND down.

    And it WILL shoot back up once price gets low enough that any idiot with 2 cents looks at silver and says 'gimme summadat cheap crap.'

    Just a matter of time. In fact, this may (hopefully) bottom out TONIGHT.

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  39. Scottj88 I didn't think he was serious necessarily but I recall some of his previous posts that seemed rather prescient, so I had to ask. I think he uses a VPN or something. If he really works for the treasury or whatever, he'll be dead soon enough anyway, lol!

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  40. Any trader who claims that he has not fantasized like a school boy about owning a time machine is a liar.

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  41. @pailin,

    yeah thanks pailin - i'm 80 percent physical, i put my life savings in when it was 17.5, a bit more at 27 and then a tiny bit today at 36. The other 20 percent is in my trading account which i planned to make a fortune, but i lost 10 percent trying to pick a bottom, but thankfully i had the sense to cut my loses instead of being stubborn. I've only been trading for six weeks and i've done tremendous research because i wanted to become a professional trader (i also wanted to be a rockstar when i was 16:). Right now i consider myself one of Turds sharks ready to jump in at a bottom.

    thanks for your tips and i've already set my alarm for 3am pacific time

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  42. "The technical dollar rally has no legs." Santa

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  43. I remember Obama did say something about taking action on us evil speculators -- pretty effective -- margin increases on Friday nights, expand the trading range in oil, "Tricky" Trichet going squishy just after Goldman backs off the 1.50 Euro call -- I mean this was good stuff and pretty well thought out.

    Of course, one has to ask, "What has really changed?"

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  44. p.s. clarification: 10 percent of 20 percent i lost, so really only 2 percent which still is a lot for me but never mind - still have some ammunition

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  45. $26.82 is the 50 Week Moving Average for Silver.

    It has been solid support since July '09

    IF...BIG IF...they can knock it down to $26.82 I will be selling blood, collecting cans, stripping for old ladies, whatever it takes to raise some cash to BUY! BUY! BUY!

    :)

    Yeah, the older babes can't see to well so....

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  46. Grandich today, for what anything is worth at this point...too bad he had to miss golf:


    http://www.grandich.com/2011/05/time-to-go-back-in-gold-1481-silver-35-75/


    Time to Go Back In Gold $1,481 Silver $35.75

    Just when I thought I was out they pull me back in.

    After literally getting out within minutes of the top in silver and gold and then watching a decline I anticipated could take weeks or months happen in a matter of days, I believe it’s time to go back in and buy back those positions.

    I may be 10% too early but we have plenty of room given what we sidestepped.

    So I’m now back in fully in gold and silver

    I will do an update on Grandich Clients by Monday’s opening. In the meantime, I’m putting a very significant amount of cash back into the junior and mining sector. I purchased 200k shares of ADV yesterday and today, have bids in for FCO, MIN, SQI and NDM and am looking at many others. Not a time to chase but to start picking spots.

    It’s fast moving and I’m trying my best to keep you fully informed of my thoughts… I even gave up a round of golf this afternoon!

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  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  48. Will be adding to my silver position this weekend or early next week!

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  49. Turd,

    You are a stand up guy. Anyone who has been in the military knows a person's character by their ACTIONS. Based on your actions, I would trust you with my LIFE. Please don't be too hard on yourself.

    -----------------------------------------------

    Folks,

    We sailed our ship into the EE's perfect storm.

    The setup:

    The EE let the PM markets run, giving us the false impression they ahd run out of ammunition. When, in fact, they changed tactics.

    Many markets closed for May Day.

    Bin Laden was killed (play that ace when it is REALLY needed). No body, no independent DNA, No pictures.

    In an orchestrated manner, commodities get creamed (hopefully) reducing the prices people REALLY care about...food and fuel.

    The EE, their relatives, friends, gardeners, who knows who was INFORMED, were READY to play what they KNEW was going to happen. We, on the other hand were PLAYED, big time.

    As many have mentioned, can we please look out for each other. Not everyone knows how to track the market indicators or has the time. If you know something that would help the group SHARE IT. And not in a condescending manner. If you made some brilliant move this time, SHARE it. But, please, we don't want to hear that you made 4000%.

    Finally, to everyone who is hurting, take steps each day to PREPARE. Have stored water, food and cash in case you need it. The recent tornadoes point out how much we depend on the EE's currency (FRNs and digital). When the SHTF, CASH will get you gasoline and groceries, your debit card and credit card will not if the power is off.

    Focusing on these things helps. I know, I lost big in 2008 and just recently entered the casino again to lose again (not so big this time).

    But guess what, my physical is STILL there! When the SHTF, people WILL recognize it as MONEY.

    The FRNs are just CURRENCY. GOLD and SILVER are money, and have been for THOUSANDS of years.

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  50. Move on...
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5NBja6NLTg

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  51. Not sure the reason for all the negative air. A significant pull back as been expected for a while. The pull back will present a very nice entry point for most people (most of whom did not get into silver at $20 (or $12)).

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  52. Jim Rogers on CNBC today:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7aipSoeEWY&feature=feedu

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  53. Turd, I am concerned about this next Comex hike to take effect on Monday. Can you or anyone comment on what the effect will be? Much appreciated.

    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110504AS_silvermargins.html

    "As of the end of business on Thursday, the “initial” margin to open new speculative positions in the main 5,000-ounce silver-futures contract will rise to $18,900 from $16,200, according to a notice released by the exchange. The “maintenance” margin for exiting speculative positions, as well as both initial and maintenance margins for hedger positions, will rise to $14,000 from $12,000.
    Then as of the close of business on Monday, the initial speculative margin will rise further to $21,600. The speculative maintenance margin, as well as margins for hedgers, will increase to $16,000."

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  54. Re: hedging with put option.

    If you buy at the money put option as hedge, then it doesn't cancel out all your potential profit as the loss is limited, while it can protect all your possible loss if properly hedged. Here is an example. Today's slv's closing price is 33.83 and if you bought 10 contracts of June 34 put at $3k then below is the possible scenario of price and P/L. Maximum loss from option is $2.5k but it can protect loss up to $7k. So it is better choice as hedge than ZSL (as long as you don't lose too much time value).

    Note: this is just an example, so I don't consider the possibility of slv going down to 23.7. Better hedge was doing this when slv price was much higher few days ago.

    slv px opt Price P/L
    33.7 3000
    35.7 2200 -800
    37.7 1600 -1400
    39.7 1100 -1900
    41.7 760 -2240
    43.7 520 -2480


    31.7 4100 1100
    29.7 5400 2400
    27.7 6900 3900
    25.7 8600 5600
    23.7 10000 7000

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  55. #3 on my Trading Rules..Do not trade with scared money...you will be paralyzed
    #6 Humility to know that "The market is ALWAYS right"

    Just sayin is all...

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  56. You know.. ..something is bothering me.

    As I read around the web I keep seeing article after article on how SO-AND-SO called the correction that came. And they are loudly proclaiming NOW that they called it then. When I barely heard a wisper. Seriously. Everybody is trying to tell you SEE WE SAID IT. :|

    I just sit here and scratch my head. *Maybe* I wasn't listening closely enough (and that truly could be the case as we sometimes don't hear/listen to what we don't want to believe)..But.. I sure don't remember that these folks voices were all that loud or that they quite screamed about it like they are portending now. ...Hey!.... SAY IT LOUDER NEXT TIME! K? :|

    At least Turd is honest enough to say 'Hey.. I didn't see this coming exactly like it played out'. ...Others are trying to say they were all bold and in our faces with the alert. ...At best... they were dancing around it and saying it in muffled tones with one hand covering up their mouths.

    Don't take my post as sour grapes. I am in no way upset at ANYone over this (well..except the schemers & manipulators) ...I just marvel at those who want to say 'I Told You So'.

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  57. Who was it that said that it's time for a "healthy correction"? Enough Already.
    From the Jan11 low -Apr11 high, we have given back over 62% of the gains.

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  58. Interested to see my turnaround points (yellow arrows in the picture)?
    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/pnZx6Z7YumgL80dYyeAt9LSf6WKsCDZrEqc6x09vnzk?feat=directlink

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  59. It seems to have suddenly become very stable around $34.67.

    I think this may be the bottom.

    (joke)

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  60. one more margin hike coming...at least. it appears to be bottomless

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  61. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. Dear Asians,

    Remember when you wanted to back your currencies with precious metals and were hoarding up physical? Please see the blue light special on GLOBEX and help stem the tide here before half this board flips its collective shit.

    Thanks,
    Jeff

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  63. Darth
    62%?? Isn't that one of those dead Italian's magic numbers? Fibonacci Pepperoni or whatever his name is.

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  64. Some contrarian (spell?) point of view of this "Asian BOS" concept people have been talking about. There are Asian BOS exchanging their junk Dollar for hard assets definitely but it's not guaranteed to be in this market.

    Remember that KWN story by Jim Rickards that China was buying from gold mines in Myanmar? That's BOS. Where were they shopping? Directly from the pit. They can do the same when accumulating silver - directly from the mining pit - so that they do not have to show their track in the open market and bid the price up themselves.

    If my guess is correct then the bulk of BOS is not necessarily immediately back in the game to offer support for us so just keep that in mind and adjust accordingly.

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  65. From tonight's midas..

    Seeing as am on a roll today, I wanted to point out that in a perfect historical echo, silver fell around 25% in 1979 (after an initial move of around 1000% from its secular low $2-20/oz)....after vaulting over this wall of worry it went into the manic scramble phase. Again we have risen 1000% from 4.50ish to over $49.0 before a similar correction) Again, worthy of mention when some are wobbling! Btw if anyone believes the idea that Silver will trade down to sideways for 3 months as suggested by some, then I have a large bridge to sell them in Brooklyn!
    Best
    Ned

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  66. Price will fall till daily MACD crosses.

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  67. Turd may be right, Silver prices (PAPER) may go to zero. The physical market will dictate the price. So look for a ZERO in the coming weeks/months?

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  68. Its in the green...Its in the green!!!Go shout it from your rooftops...Its in the green!!!

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  69. @Ginger

    good question re July calls and what to do. sell hold or double down. its anyones guess and we all have to decide for ourselves of course.

    I am the proud owner of July 45 and 50 calls and boy are they bleeding all over my screen. Now worth 1/3 of my ave. cost as I bravely nibbled on the way down.

    we have 10 weeks left till expiration. And this is non margin and house money for me so the farm isn't at stake here.

    I was certainly considering a double down early today and glad I waited. Still considering it as well. Of course, what I should have done is put stops up but I swear I have had calls stolen from me in the past by single spike dips to my stops before a move up.. Murphys law?

    I do think that IF we get a move back up over next weeks then I will be kicking myself I didn't hammer my ave. cost down during this blood bath.

    And I do not want to be completely "out" during these violent times as I believe there will be very violent moves both ways in the months to come.

    Murphy's law being what it is of course, if I sell these calls to preserve capital and lick my wounds, that is the moment we will turn and rocket to 60. And I mean the very moment.

    I believe (at times) that Blythe and crew have direct access to my trading screen and act based upon MY puny decisions of all things!

    Blythe: "MUHA HA...looks like Dmon has finally flushed his incredibly insignificant amount of July calls! Just the signal we have been waiting for these past days...end the blood bath immediately!
    GO LONG WITH EVERYTHING WE'VE GOT!! BUY MONKEYS BUY!!"

    Dmon: "RATS!" (cleaned it up for the censors)

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  70. The only good news here is that another piece shiny arrived in the mail. Gold always makes me feel happy no matter what. And it always helps me sleep at night. :)

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  71. @stevy
    It's 3am eastern! That's when London opens and starts selling gold and silver.

    @Evil
    I have no idea if you're full of sh!t or not, but my independent analysis gives me the same answer. We're in for a potential deflationary crunch that will allow debt ceiling increase to whizz right by, Congress authorizes Timmuh to issue more debt leading to full-on QE3 liquidity by Fed. And somehow the average Joe's will thank our leaders for this. I see some real likelihood of this. Metals for long range, cash in hand for short term.

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  72. cramer has head of Goldcorp on his show right now. If anybody owns it.

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  73. Please, can anyone tell me where I can find all of the margin increases at the Comex, how many, when?? There have been so many I don't know whats going on. I know of three so far. Thanks in advance.

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  74. I think this correction was needed now to shake out the weak hands and allow silver to continue to rise on fundamentals instead of speculation. I think his is the place to buy physical and the miners.

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  75. ben-->Here is all you need to know. History states margin increases have little effect over the long term. HERE

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  76. ben

    Lifted from a comment on Trader Dan's site and I haven't verified:

    Vik said...
    A brief history of silver margins (New contracts) from you blog:

    Nov 16, 2010 - $9,788 from $8,775
    Dec 16, 2010 - $10,463 from $9,788
    Jan 20, 2011 - $11,138 from $10,463
    April 25, 2011 - $12,825 from $11,138
    April 28, 2011 - $14,513 from $12,825
    May 2, 2011 - $16,200 from $14,513
    May 5, 2011 - $18,900 from $16,200
    May 9, 2011 - $21000 from $18,900

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  77. I heard from MSM that Soros dumped 96 million ozs into the market and Slim made a similar move. Two questions on this. Was this a physical dump or a paper dump and why has this not been mentioned on this blog? Did I miss mention of this?

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  78. @RC
    That happened in the past, but was only released to the public yesterday.

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  79. I'm planning to buy silver on Monday, and I'm guessing the price will go down into the 32s... I suppose it could go lower, but considering that I was happy to pay 38+ last week, it will be a bargain. If the price goes lower than that, I'll keep buying. I'm thinking of expanding into some other commodities BTW,so appreciate the tips. I couldn't find too much information on the one TF mentioned earlier, BBL, or belly button lint. The supply of BBL is even rarer than silver, so it is a mystery why the demand is low.
    Much appreciation. I also like the article posting on zero hedge, but get grossed out reading the comments there.

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  80. COME ON $35!!!!!!!!!!!! you can do it...

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  81. Just talked to the folks at CMI (JOSH) and told him about this blog!
    Asked if Bill Haynes had any special insights into what's going on, other than the margin hikes.

    Josh said Haynes he's just glad it's going straight down instead of fits and starts which would pull in a lot of people then hit them.

    Said that he's been getting 100 oz bars and 90% in, but only bought back one silver Eagle today.That's just one dealer, so it may not be totally representative, but it may give a clue about the action.

    He sold off SLV at 45, but has the Toqueville fund and something else ...he's too busy to trade.

    Said it's all these day traders, that over at CMI, they're looking at years out. He said someone who had just bought liquidated her 6000 oz and is taking a beating....he said he wish he could have stopped her...

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  82. Oops, I meant to say 48+ last week...

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  83. RC...Please tell me that is not true and its a joke. Can you confirm this.

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  84. RC yes that was mentioned on this blog already. It was paper. Means nothing, I hope paper goes to ZERO. They don't have the balls to own PHYSICAL.

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  85. I think there are several reasons for this extreme retracement in the PMs.

    First, I think the western central banks must pump up the dollar and smash down PMs. This is to keep the Chinese from spending their reserve in fiat U.S. dollars too quickly, and to give them a better price in gold for their reserve dollars. The western central banks were probably given an ultimatum. Bring down the price of PMs in dollars or we crash the system.

    Second, Bernanke announced that they would continue QE2 until the end of June, but I think most of the big mainstream market players think in fact it will end there.

    Third, the go away in May crowd seem to have taken this as a signal to sell now.

    Fourth, the extreme silver shorts by the big banks threatened to bring down the entire dollar fiat based global financial system.

    So, a lot of birds will killed with one stone. Looks like we will have to regroup and start over again in our quest to defeat the EE.

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  86. I suppose if I worked for the "Evil Empire" I might go by the name of Evil?

    It would seem that this EE would also run a number of potential outcomes as to be prepared for any possible swing or scenario. Certainly they (in such a position) wouldn't be caught without a number of plans and backup plans to hold everything together as much as possible. Any good battle plan would be made in seeing as many angles as can be conceived of within the realm of possibility?

    No surprises/prepare for anything. Much easier to respond effectively if you're a step ahead.

    ?

    Soros dumped paper - These guys know exactly what's up. I bet he has shit-tons of physical gold and no silver, aside from silverware and candlesticks;)

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  87. Thanks for the update Turd, keeping the faith and BTFD!!

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  88. Jim Rogers is NOT selling his gold and silver.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DYHPuNeq7s&feature=feedu

    Basically he is saying buy the dip.

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  89. We are definitely getting close, it looks to us like the cartel intends to attempt to stuff silver back down below $30. We'll see if they're successful. Physical buying will be monumental below $30.

    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/million-dollar-question-when-will.html

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  90. That will put a lump in your throat.... seeing gold Red w/ -$42.00. Makes -$7.00 look WAY better though!!
    Maybe I'll go on a shopping spree on The "Bay", see if there's any good sales on Yellow Metal.

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  91. I can see silver popping back up to $40 pretty quickly from here.

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  92. from traderdan
    http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/05/collusion-by-fed-officials-and.html

    "By their continued hiking of silver margins, the exchange effectively removed the liquidity in the silver market that the smaller specs have been providing. That left the market vulnerable to severe drops in price as these specs exited due to financial constraints which then removed a source of potential bids under the market as the CFTC commitments report has shown the small specs to be good buyers in the silver market. Even the bigger hedge funds are impacted by such a sharp hike in margins as their losses in silver then precipitate even more losses across other assorted commodity markets due to the cascading effect of mounting paper losses and margin calls and the need to raise cash."

    I think that says it all!

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  93. Quick note as I won't be back in time, Ron Paul is participating in Southern Republican Presidential debate tonight @ 9pm est. He has a money bomb going on right now and has raised $671,000 so far today. It will be interesting to see where it stands at the end of the night, as this was completely organized by grass roots. It is on Fox News Channel.

    Just wanted to point it out, I am sure he will be trying to stand out.

    http://ronpaul2012.com/

    P.S. -- This new zerohedge article is rather appropriate for these days. The turning point is coming for humanity...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-exposes-big-lie

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  94. Maybe we should all review Turd's previous video re Blythe's plan to buy Venezuela ? from April 23rd.

    Turd this all just earlier and deeper than predicted?

    Subtract 10 from the low and we are in the ball park.
    If so then perhaps the snap back up will also be higher than predicted as well.

    I haven't sold an oz.

    Time to start working for us yet Blythe!

    http://www.youtube.com/user/TFMetals#p/a/u/0/WhcFI-vzNXk

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  95. oh and the best part is this!

    "Oh by the way, I might note here that the Japanese Yen has moved to within 58 pips of the level that brought about a massive coordinated intervention back in March that was tied to the tragic earthquake and tsunami. All of those billions spent on knocking the currency down have been wasted as the newest plan to derail the commodity markets brought about another unwinding of the Yen carry trade causing the exact same problem for Japan once again. In other words, less than two months later and after spending billions to derail the Yen and prop up the Dollar against it, we are right back to where we started on Dollar/Yen."

    I see this ending very badly and sooner than most though! Maybe this summer!

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  96. Trend chart and article regarding tomorrows BLBS report is it compares to ADP. What is the consensus around here, because considering the extreme market volitility tomorrow is pivot point.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/chart-of-the-day-adp-vs-bls-on-jobs-created/238367/

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  97. from MARTIN ARMSTRONG paper published September 17, 2010...page 7:

    ..."I began to notice that EVERY market makes a FAKE-OUT move just before a major advance. THe market needs to swing the sentiment back to bearish BEFORE it rallies. You need the energy to rally and that is created by the wrong traders who fight the tape. They provide the fuel for the early stages of the rally. As the rally begins to mature, it now attracts new money for investment. The tape fighters continue because they refuse to believe that they are wrong. This is the ENERGY that creates the move."

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Gold%20an%2011%20Year%20High%20for%202010%2009-17-2010.pdf

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  98. Silver is still being bid at ~$46/47 per oz on ebay.

    http://coins.shop.ebay.com/Bars-Rounds-/39489/i.html?rt=nc&LH_Auction=1&_catref=1&_sc=1&_sop=1&_sticky=1&_trksid=p3286.c0.m301#http://cgi.ebay.com/10-X-1-Troy-oz-Silver-Bars-999-PURE-SILVER-BULLION-/250811824820?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3a658cbab4&vil=1

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  99. Pailin said...

    @Evil
    I have no idea if you're full of sh!t or not, but my independent analysis gives me the same answer. We're in for a potential deflationary crunch that will allow debt ceiling increase to whizz right by...

    ---------

    This is about the best guestimate of what is happening right now, that I have seen so far. They desperately need the debt limit raised, & there is nothing like a little crash to wake up any congress critters who have been on the fence about hiking the debt ceiling.

    Disclosure, I am long physical, zero paper.

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  100. I don't know about the rest of you bastards but I am buying some physical with both hands tomorrow! I've had some casch sitting on the side for just such a dip.

    Happy Cinco De Mayo to all you others out there in Turdland...

    Turd - Have a good one man and thanks for laying it out there like you always do!

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  101. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  102. the only thing to take home from Norcini is that whenever you trade metals, at key points you are literally playing against a team that will suddenly move the goal posts right down the field and change the rules. In the normal world its called cheating and theft. I think its best now for me to begin buying bullion and get out of most of the paper game. In truth, Silver would have been at 60 this afternoon had they not touched margins, think about it, just think about it.

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  103. My greatest worry is that im gonna miss the rally on the way up. I'm sure someone gonna go in and scoop up the whole lot. :P But on the other hand i'm afraid it'll be a fake bull-run and i'll get shafted. Oh the horror.

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  104. Lower prices for the golden triangle - oil, gold, silver - give the Fed more room to crank up QE3.

    "No commodity inflation to see here, folks. Move along. Buy stocks and feel the wealth effect."

    A certain Fed primary dealer, who just happened to be bleeding from a massive short silver position, might be willing to help bring this about.

    Hypothetically speaking. Yeah.

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  105. @raged
    I had the bull spreads on options. In fact, I was sitting easy when I decided to get cute and buy back the top side at a good profit Monday afternoon. I used up most of my cash to buy those back. Now that the bottom has fallen out, I'm stuck with waiting for the eventual climb back up.
    Fortunately these calls are for October and December, so there is time for the recovery.

    On a personal note, the last time I felt this wrung out was when I held on to Tyco before their accounting scandal blew up some years ago.

    -Not whining, just venting at myself-.

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  106. @rthale71,

    agreed, I'm only down 4K in my commodity stocks, from 55K, my 1k oz Ag and my 50 oz Au, are fine and long with my FRN.

    I just think dan has a very good perspective on what is happening throughout the entire commodity complex, in addition to the USD/YEN carry trade! We, if we didnt already know, can now see how interwoven the entire financial system is! The baby gonna burn, the only safe harbor is physical.

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  107. The unemployment numbers tomorrow as TF stated will be very big for silver for the short term.

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  108. Kevin, would you care to elaborate? The numbers today was horrible, yet the PMs tanked.
    If by tomorrow they report that the employment situation is looking better, will PMs rally?

    Feels like a tank/tank scenario.

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  110. @marco

    While I'm sure members of the EE read this blog, I don't think it makes much difference. These people have been experts in crowd psychology/herd mentality for decades.

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  111. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  112. A long term bull market always rescue you even if you are trapped at an intermediate top. That being said it does NOT rescue your leverage or heavy margin plays which are not investment but gambling.

    Manage your risk. Preserving your capital is the #1 principle in trading.

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  113. Demand is the flip side that hits silver and crude. When it costs too much we use less and buying stops until the price or supply drops.

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  114. @Jimmy

    I just believe if the numbers are good, they will be used to hit the PMs even harder. But you are right they can hit us anytime they want and as hard as they want it seems like. It just gives them more of a reason to hit us if the numbers are good.
    Also, could the 5th margin hike already been priced in today? Maybe making tomorrow not so bad? IDK...

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  115. jpm/cme very likely have cash settled more than 60% of silver contracts, more than 30% gold contracts in the last 8 mths based on CME published data, the real cash settlement could be much higher, given the observation that the last trading day 20,000+ OI became 2,000 OI at the first notice day last week. If proven to be true after investigation, it will be a huge fraud and crime. I don't understand why there is no class action law suit against jpm/cme for their highly possible fraudulent activities. CFTC is hopeless led by a former goldman manager. Where is GATA and where is Ron who sits as the chair of the monetary committee in Congress ? If some law firm starts the law suit, I pretty sure millions of PM bugs will join and donate millions bucks as legal fees.

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  116. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  117. uh


    i think i did predict it.

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  118. You have to be leery on Ebay results right now since the bids could have been placed days ago before the bottom fell out.

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  119. I sold my position (over 500 ounces with a profit) at 39.38( I came in at $29) I plan to get back in at the bottom. Don't worry Tufd all of us who got out are like alligators lurking ready to spring at the first sign of an upturn. I got 125,000 Chinese Yuan ready to blow.

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  120. [one more time]

    @turd and all us turdities

    HERE IS A NOVEL THOUGHT.

    I wonder if this and similar sites help the banksters in hatching their strategies to rid people of their silver and $$.

    Aren't we unwittingly helping the EE and encouraging them to move forward aggressively by virtue of top-calling and, conversely, telling the whole community how far down things will go (which then, as it invariably does, leads to an overshoot and a lower trough). These kinds of statements only grease the wheels for the EE and unfortunately prime people to sheepishly accept "the inevitable."

    Why is it that those bast@rds (the EE) get to strategize in secret, yet people on this site (for the sake of the "common good") telegraph and announce every strategy and thought they have?

    If I were Blythe, I would regularly visit this and other sites to figure out how far of a sell-off people expect and can stomach, how many have already bailed, when others are proclaiming they will bail, what mood buyers are in, how much further they can be pushed, whether they are becoming disheartened or demoralized, if there is going to be a revolt, when people plan to buy again, etc. etc. It's like giving your football opponents a seat of honor at the strategy table before you go out on the pitch to do battle with them. Why would you want to do that?

    As great as a site as this is (because I am sure it has made some a lot of money and because of they great community of people who are here), the fact is that whereas others do their strategizing and financial plotting in the dark, it's all out in the open here. I'm not sure that--on balance--this is helpful. I can easily see how Blythe is laughing at how stupid her enemies are by blabbing and completely emoting about everything in public.

    Playing the markets is dealing with one's own and others' paranoia, over-confidence and neurotic tendencies, and knowing how to leverage that info to get ahead. This site and others are laying all of this bare so that it can be used by the the EE.

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  121. Here's a great article. A must read for physical investors.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/267531-the-last-great-opportunity-in-silver-and-platinum?source=email_watchlist

    Ejoy, there's a damn good reason to be ready to buy.

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  122. Coinhawk Awesome Article read that earlier on.

    These prices are fantastic, and I am backing up the truck.

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  123. @Marco

    Marco you are right. Maybe we should keep our plans to ourselves.

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  124. Holy crap guys, look! Silver up $.01! A whole penny! Yay!

    Whoever says Max is bleeding out his ass is a fool. You don't bleed until you sell. He's not a silver investor or a paper player, he's a fundamentalist. I can't imagine the stack of shiny he has on hand. Everyone bails and wants to take everyone else with them cause misery loves company.

    Max and the "army" will be the last ones standing....silver is here to stay, banks go under every day.

    Getting so tired of watching Kitco day in and day out. I'm well loaded and will stay that way for a long time. My retirement account consists of a pile of "worthless" metal nobody wanted in the spring of 2011 and no one will print it by the time I go to spend it.

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  125. Blythe,

    I know your out there. You know people have probably killed themselves because of what you and government collusion have done.

    You know people have probably lost their life savings.

    I know you will probably laugh and scoff, but deep down inside your a human being. One day you will regret what you have done in life.

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  126. lumpyshorts,

    Thanks for the laugh and the visuals. Maybe we could be a tag team. Anything to come up with the cash to get more!!

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  127. Randy if we keep our plans to ourselves we are defeating our actual purpose. And that purpose is too educate the masses. The EE may have won the battle but we regroup to fight another day.

    We have then running scared, but they have the paper we just have the will.

    We will prevail.

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  128. Has there been an "official" explanation why the usd went up a buck today and why everything else tanked?

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  129. Tulving just raised the premium on 100 oz JM bars from $0.89 to $0.99.

    During the Jan bottom, Tulving briefly sold out of 100 oz JM bars.

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  130. Harald, haven't you heard..Obama killed Osama... LOL...Quick someone give me a dollar.

    By the way folks I managed to turn another one onto PM's he made his first order today.

    FU Blythe and your monekys.

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  131. We all have our parts to play in this world, Mr. Waffen.

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  132. My 2cents. The EE or whatever doesn't care about anyone or anyone else's opinions. I think the shorts were there until they reversed their position which could be done in less than a day ( http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-slvs-largest-holders ) The bottom looked to be in but selling continued after a bounce. its impossible to tell until tomorrow the confirmed upward move would be moving past 35.5( aprox fib level). Craziest shit I have ever seen shit is dropping faster than a biotech that just got an FDA rejection

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  133. Evening Blythe, why do you hate Free Markets?

    And why do you hate freedom.

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  134. @marco

    No they dont care at all we are nothing. All they care about is institutions and themselves. Weather we accept whats going on our not it'll still happen.

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  135. @Marco

    Are you serious dude? Of course they read here. They read zerohedge too. They read everything. Maybe we should all go under the cone of silence!

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  136. SLV:

    My understanding is that the daily fluctuations in the SLV do not change the amount of ounces they have (virtual or otherwise). It just changes the market cap of the ETF, right? So why do the MSM report the fall/redemption of 6 million ounces as if the ETF is selling silver? So my question is, is it that the silver leaves the ETF because people are redeeming the shares for it, not that the ETF is selling its silver?

    By the way, did you guys see the volume on SLV today? ~300 million!!! Absolutely crazy!!!

    Phantom

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  137. Apples at 7:24 PM wrote:
    You have to be leery on Ebay results right now since the bids could have been placed days ago before the bottom fell out.

    I wondered about that; simply click twice on a few select 1 oz, and you'll find bids just hours ago at $40+.

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  138. Keep your shit together people, don't lose to an illusion. Do not lose your nerve, or your faith. Few of are here because of mania, so just remember the real reasons you cast your lot with PMs. In reality, not one thing has changed. Expect maybe 10 margin hikes a month now :-0)

    With time to ruminate on all of it, I'm sticking my neck out and making an early call. I'm telling all of Turd Town here and now: I AM CERTAIN we've just been hit with a MULTI-level psy-op specially designed to make the proles decide to sell low. I'm a longtime media watcher and an astute analyst and even I've been impressed with the magnitude of the all-dancing, all-singing production we've just been forced to watch. OMG the level of shit the "news media" can gin up is off the hook. And even after being told mostly lies their entire lives, somehow the proles still buy it. Perhaps that is what is most troubling.

    Please watch and listen to the first 40 minutes of The Matrix again, but this time VERY carefully. Then compare the cocoon to what you are living in. Disturbingly similar: all one's inputs controlled, this garbage-in/garbage-out synthetic existence becomes the Real World. Except to a special few.

    I was a very early adopter of Clif High and George Ure and was shocked in a good way that Turd recently hooked up with the Forum. I thought it was fascinating.

    Ok, here's the good stuff: Clif's research indicates that a new generation of electronics the Chinese are about to trot out is going to have the effect of making the price of silver go thru the roof. Evidently a lot of Ag is in the new mix. Ag would recover in an amazingly short time. After a low of about $32, wham-O, a pivot to a reversal of fortune. A reeeaaaallllly big one.

    Is Clif right? In the past, he's made some calls and missed a few. I guess we're about to find out.

    But whether his specific prediction holds or not, my heart and my head are shouting SCAM-BOLA! In my 53 years, I've seldom been wrong when feeling like I do about the info I'm taking in.

    For those who can hang, do. I know my patience will be rewarded well beyond Ag 50 & Au 1600. I trust that yours will be too. But everyone has their own threshold.

    Hang through this shit storm and you'll know you're truly a hard-ass. You'll know you went eye to eye with the EE at this critical juncture in history AND DID NOT BACK DOWN. This shit is so blatantly and transparently bogus. So fuck 'em in the ear.

    Get some rack Freedom Fighters, our offensive begins anew in the morning.

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  139. Jesus, total carnage. I hope none of you were buying during the freefall. At least wait for a bottom.

    SLV is dumping silver on the market as people bail on it.

    20 Million ounces out yesterday.

    3.8 Million ounces out today.

    You can't fight that buying Maples and ASE.

    More pain tomorrow. Have the smarts to hedge until we bottom.

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  140. G/S ratio now at 42.96/1 up from 38.43 this morning...
    and 33.24 on Monday.

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  141. Next time, perhaps listen to Chris Martenson closer:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-coming-rout

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  142. King World New:
    "Ben Davies - We Are Now Buyers of Physical Silver"
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

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  144. Shill, there have been no free markets since 1913 :)

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  145. The POSX looks like it's fixin to roll over...

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  146. @marco

    man we are just gnats. in this game, even if u throw $5 million bucks on a trade, u r a gnat. this is a game being played out on a multitrillion dollar scale. they don't give 2 shits what we think or say. besides the price action speaks for itself. they see all of our trades.

    as far as reading the stuff goes, i think some of them prob read it. i don't think most do. most of the ones under 30 leave work to hit the bars and get fucked up at clubs and waste time. this is not an erudite group we are dealing with (at least not most of them). trust me on that! unfortunately i know way too many of these idiots.

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  147. Blythe is busy getting her nails done...she isn't interested in data mining sentiment...thats is done like most things in her life by her minions...and yes they do check sentiment through various means including these boards. But more importantly they already know what the chat is because the manipulate and create it with expected accuracy outcome plus or minus 2%.....so you can't beat them you have to know where their game is and go with them, at least in the Paper trade....that is THEIR CASINO and you better play by their rules.

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  148. Shill, there have been no free markets since 1913 :)

    -----

    Ain't it the truth. :)

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  149. Digging the Gold support, now if Silver can just catch a floor.

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  150. last month my friend and I had a little friendly bet about the economy - i predicted dollar collapse and metals rally, he predicted the opposite and talked about elliot waves.

    Today he emailed me this: http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/05/05/Gold-and-Silver-Why-Are-Prices-Falling.aspx

    is there any substance to this?

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  151. @sp

    I believe you are wrong. Read some of the sites that have broken down what was going on at the Comex beforte the clamp down. It was the small guys and their investments that were threatening Blythe and the Morgue. That is why the Comex has raised rates 5 times: to keep the smaller fish out. They were hurting them.

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  152. I had to drag my NetDania charts down to accommodate the upswing in gold and silver in the past few minutes. ;-)

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  153. gold catching the bid now. +13

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  154. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japanese-stocks-plunge-on-strong-yen-weak-oil-2011-05-05?link=MW_latest_news

    So Japan has been on holiday all week.

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  155. @kliguy38

    It is their casino if you invest in paper silver (which they can always renege on if you want to cash out). Physical is in a different realm, although not completely separate (obviously) of Blythe's machinations.

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  156. @marco

    Sorry to break it to you but thats bullshit spread across the internet. The small guys are loose change if that even.

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  157. 3...2....1. Commencing Short Squeeze

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  158. @marco

    i agree that they are hitting the small speculators, for sure. no disagreement there.

    but i don't think we are "small specs" that they are most worried about (meaning zerohedge and turdites). for every 1 PM lover like us, i would say that as silver hit 40+ there were probably 100x as many technical traders that got involved (or i should say 100x the amt of cash). slv has been the top trending ticker now for about a month.

    i think they were rotting out small specs (ie hedge funds & technical traders). who knows though, it is tough to data-mine anonymous boards. but i would guess 1 john paulson has about as much $ than everyone who reads zerohedge and turd combined. and there are hundreds of those types of guys (that are small fries compared to china).

    the other part of it is my own personal experiences with these assholes. in all my days of meeting jp,bear,lehman,goldman dickwads, i've met 1 guy who seemed to be able to see beyond his own bubble. the rest seem so insulated from the reality. i definitely think some look, but i just have a hard time believing that they would change anything because of us. not to mention i think the trading is 99% automated anyways.

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  159. Can someone please explain? Where are the buyers of size? Ive watched them attack the smallest dips over the past few months and now the dips are HUGE and there are no vertical ups on the charts.. Im new to watching markets but have been stacking since i was just a wee lad. Btw my stack is just as beautiful as last week and has even grown a bit but all the red in the charts is a bit depressing.
    Thank you all..

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  160. @sp

    You know exactly whats up. I feel bad for people who think that the small guy even has a chance. You just gotta play what the market gives you

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  161. A small ray of light after a deluge of 5 days.

    Ag double bottom. I wish.

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  162. fredco:

    I have this fantasy the BOS are just waiting for the right time to come in so fast it'll go from $35 to $50 within minutes. ;-)

    Seriously, though, that mini-FUBM a few minutes ago was escalator down, elevator up rather than the opposite.

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  163. What would general ackbar think of this action?

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  164. @R.trader

    i may know whats up b/c i'm surrounded by it.

    ex-gf, jp morgan banker. ex next door neighbor, goldman sachs. guy across the hall (total asshole) @ nomura. many of my colleagues wives or husbands are either attorneys for the banks or bankers themselves. to make it even worse, some of my uncles are managing directors at the big banks, many of my cousins are in hedge fund industry. goes on and on, i'm surrounded by these guys. when i was in my 20s i met alot of these guys hanging out at the same bars/lounges etc.

    most of them are arrogant pricks and definitely evil to the core...but very few of them quite honestly make major decisions.

    as far as their brilliant financial acumen, vast majority have all of their cash in bonds, or checking accounts (yea 1 guy actually had 500k, entire net worth in checking account). so i wouldn't say they are financially savvy either. very few (outside of the direct traders) understand options. most of them have failed the CFA multiple times (not sure how, that's what they are supposed to understand for a living).

    but one thing they all have in common, is that they give 2 shits about u and me.

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  165. Jimmy... LOL... I've been thinking that all week that ANY up tick is....

    "IT'S A TRAAAAAAAP!!!"

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  166. @turd

    Can you adress this myth please:
    marco said...
    @sp

    I believe you are wrong. Read some of the sites that have broken down what was going on at the Comex beforte the clamp down. It was the small guys and their investments that were threatening Blythe and the Morgue. That is why the Comex has raised rates 5 times: to keep the smaller fish out. They were hurting them

    Its unfair to those that do not know the truth and were lead to believe that their 1k or 5k or even 500k makes a different in the market. I've heard of so many people getting burned they have to know that the small guy doesn't really have control unless there is enough of them and frankly that just isn't possible.

    p.s. I'm not hating in the blog or anything I love it and really enjoy your insight. I'm just trying to keep people informed

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  167. Sadly, the Late Night Asian Ray of Hope followed by the Early Morning London Smiting of Doom is the daily pattern this week.

    My hopes will only rise if we don't see an attack before dawn.

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  168. I've got a feeling that gold has bottomed at 1462 and we will never see gold this low again...

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  169. yeah, fingers crossed, but who knows.

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  170. A week ago today my wife and I were headed down to Florida to see the shuttle launch. We spent the night before trying to figure out a "better" hiding place for our stash. Spent a lot of time at it. A week later I come home and she says we do we do with it now? I said, throw the shit in the front yard, nobody will pick it up. We threw 10 100 oz bars in the yard. I went for a run, came back a half an hour later and there was 17 of em there. What a difference a week makes. Oh, the shuttle didn't launch either.

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  171. buyer of size will not appear again until it is 100% confirmed that the COMEX can handle it. atlee provided a joke earlier which nailed this concept.

    btw, i suggest everyone reads this from kingworldnews

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/5_Ben_Davies_-_We_Are_Now_Buyers_of_Physical_Silver.html

    this to me is a very powerful statement, they are excellent technical traders

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  172. Newest ZH article on Comex here. 92,000 ounces withdrawn today, registered inventory is about to dip to 32 million. This is bullish for 31 million. :)

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  174. Phew, this has been a stormy week. Soon I'll pills to keep my blood pressure under control. Fingers crossed we are almost out of this roller coaster ride...

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  175. ok, someone help me out on this. 2006 the COMEX defaulted on Nickel. The price soared as the buyers and comex was forced to get the metals on the open market, thus boosting spot. Isn't the same expected if the comex defaults on the silver? If there's anything like a silver default, i'd want to be in before the announcement, no?

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  176. I'm waiting for Eric King to give us an update from his "source in London".

    On April 25, the source said:
    "$3 to $4 dollars days in silver will become common, from now on $2 days will be considered slow. There will be a great deal of volatility going forward, but more often than not silver will close near the highs"

    The source was right, except for the bit about closing near the highs...

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  177. General Ackbar would say it's a trap and run.
    The general never was not very successful at organizing an attack run.

    Frontal assault by inferior forces is foolish.

    Just ask Pickett at Gettysburg.

    It's always up to the Jedi and the individual patriots to make the run and exploit the weaknesses.

    We're supposed to be small and nimble. Numbers can out flank an opponent. Asia has those numbers. Asia has been sitting this one out.

    Basically, the EE is doing the bidding for the European and Asian oligarchs at the expense of millions of middle class investors in the USA.

    Instead, some of the new blog posters here seem to think owning a few hundred ounces of silver makes you Jabba the Hutt. Think again o' portly frog eater.

    TO VAMOOSE - THANK YOU FOR YOUR COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS. At first I thought your comments were trolling. If you had posted in less argumentative terms, I would have believed you more. But, I agreed that there was a possibility that the Soros meeting could have resulted in a substantial quiet shift in Fed policy.

    Caution to the sith... do not attack any longer. The slaves will revolt and you will die from the rebellion. It will be like in Moses' Exodus but 100X worse and global.


    I am reading Evil's comments... please elaborate on your model.

    I agree with the 2008 analogies.

    This is no diff and the charts track now to 2008.

    It's like the 2008 sequence but accelerated into weeks instead of months.

    Now, we have hours instead of days (sorry, but going into James T. Kirk mode).

    We need more power or we're all dead...

    Anyone have the access codes to the other ship?

    I'd like to lower their shields and then give them a hot set of phaser blasts in short sequence.

    "Oh, hello Blythe... we need more time..."

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  178. Look to the 2yr Au chart, just deflection off the upper channel. Same as January and last July.

    Best case: 1 month consolidating, higher highs by the end of June. (ala Jan 2011, Jul 2010)
    Worse case: this correction is followed by a 3 month consolidation. (ala Dec 2009)

    The fundos haven't changed: US.gov can't pay the debt, Quad$ spec markets have to unwind...same as it ever was.

    UF

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  179. C.A.P.I.T.U.L.A.T.I.O.N happened today. Reeked of it...good gawd the panic just smelled something fierce. Look at the volumes of the miners,GLD/SLV etfs folks. When Gold crosses 1500, there will be short covering panic of epic proportion. Bank on it. Looking forward to making money off of these (unhedged) miserable, bandwagon shorts.

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  180. Jimmy,


    http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

    http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#5years

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  181. @Eric, yes it's Fib Number, sometimes they mean something.
    eBay selling SAE for 40% premium!
    http://tinyurl.com/3s39n9f
    rather than giving the Fed 33% I'll give eBay 12%
    Of course I'll wait for $100!

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  182. Feels like "shorting at 34" is the new "buying at 48", is it possible this will bounce back as fast as it dropped, or is it just naive to think it will?

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  184. coinhawk,

    thanks for the link. Here's a paragraph from Goodman's article dated April 26, 2011:


    "If the performance bond committee is successful, they will manage to reduce the so-called "spot" price. In practical terms, however, the only thing they will have accomplished is to cause a few speculators to lose money while helping well-financed market vigilantes to buy more bars of physical silver for the same money. The bankers will then need to deliver even more physical silver than they would if the committee had done nothing. These futile attempts to fight back illustrate that a market manipulation cannot be effective in a market that is well aware of it."

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  185. Back from a long evening, happy to see that silver is a little higher and gold more so. Maybe we have passed the "Turd's minor bottom" and will start to pick up a tailwind (so to speak....).

    Still long LINT, waiting for the LINT/DUST ratio to improve before I do a swap.

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  186. Any fans of Pastor Lindsey "Whistling" Williams out there? I know his views have been discussed here before, but I took no notice at that time. Someone just sent me his videos yesterday and I took a look.

    10% fall in crude part of the plan for the elites on the way to $200?

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  187. bueno tequilla
    yes I am drunk but I promise not to trade or post anymore until I sober up
    love this blog
    gracias senor Turd

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  188. Fredco, IMHO the BOS are well aware of the details of this psy-op and are holding fire until the bottom. They know how long the raid is scheduled to last. Why pay 35 spot when you can simply wait for 32 to fall into your lap?

    Again, think. At a time when Fiat's NEVER been as dodgy, magically the stuff holding TRUE value has been made to decline in price. Nothing short of criminal behavior involved here. But you can't blame the BoS for waiting for their best price.

    The PTB knows Fiat's goose is cooked and are scamming us BECAUSE THEY WANT OUR METAL FOR THEMSELVES, ON THE CHEAP!

    The PTB thinks Fiat is for the lumpen masses. They think we are contemptible idiots and morons. See, in their vaults, you'll find gold and silver ingots.

    After coming this far, are we now going to prove them right about us? Not I.

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  189. don't listen to "evil" is my opinion. The "unsecured wi fi spot" "urgen info" is a dead giveaway - why don't you use a secure wi fi instead? i think he's trying to gain trust by saying that but it just doesn't cut it with me. You told me nothing i don't already know but i'm for one aint being reeled in by you

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  190. Great read SP. And I have done just that Positioned some serious Paper rectangles in both Physical as well as shares. Doubled up on GPL.

    Going forward miners will be in demand to refill the coffers if you will. A floor like this for a month or 2 is very much welcomed. This is the accumulation phase to all you new comers. Dollar cost average in, but buy you must.

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  191. why do we need to withdraw money from the bank if we it a deflationary crunch ???

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  192. Haze, Turdle,
    You guys are talking two sides of the same coin according to Lindsey Williams. $ default on MENA oil, revolting MENA (including Pakistan, Haze) and open Alaska fields at $200/bbl. Lindsey's informant says Yemen is suppose to be next.
    UF

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  193. I think your right TF.
    Approx. $34 seems to be the place it's hovering as the PO$X comes back to some reality.
    This has been a crazy thing to watch and participate in.
    I just bought a small stack of 1/2 oz. Ag rounds just to make myself feel a little bit better.
    It worked!
    It felt like I got a deep discount compared to 10 days ago.

    I think John97205 has a point about BoS' just licking their chops at the bargain prices and opportunity going forward in Ag.
    I see crude oil right now as somewhat similar.

    One bombing or missile between the "new" PLO and Israel and the risk trade is back on, quickly.
    I couldn't help but noticed the PLO forged their renewed alliance in....Cairo Egypt.
    Funny how this is starting to play out between our old allie and the PLO's new allie.
    The US doesn't even talk about Egypt anymore and they are forming obvious enemy alliances in the open.
    WTF! is going on? Things are turned upside down in way too short of a time period in highly turbulent regions.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    This whole new angle about Pakistan keeping quiet about UBL is troubling to say the least.
    It wouldn't suprise me if the Chinese were also giving aid to Pakistan and playing both sids of the coin. It would make sense if your China and Pakistan. China wants to get rid of and invest Billion$ of US dollars.
    The US gives approx. $3 billion a year to Pakistan. Thats chump change for China in US dollars and it's a neighbor in their backyard of influence. If you were Pakistan what would you do? Play both sides.

    MENA is so obvious I'm not sure black swan fits any longer.
    But a Pakistan backlash in the future seems possible given our distrust of each other and the role of Al Qaeda/Taliban and the nuclear warheads they would love to possess. If your the U.S. (or India for sure) your pretty nervous what part of the Pak. govt. or military controls the weapons.
    It seems to me that Obanma does not like the Pakistanis as he has spoken of them in the past with some contempt during his campaign and still during his presidency. I have no problem with that posture. He'll act over there in a second if he has to. And Pakistan knows it.
    The troubling part is if China is in Pakistans back pocket giving them encouragement.
    The Pakistani ISI isn't aligned solely with themselves. They aren't aligned with India obviously. Russia? I don't think so.
    China? You bet. Previously via N.Korea, but now starting to align in the open.
    MENA is always in play but some type of Pakistani-related trouble is the new black swan.

    Sounds all political, I'm sure.
    Any new Pakistan trouble or new terror incidents against us or elsewhere as a reprisal for UBL will cause oil and PM's to spike and the POS$X to drop.
    It would effect us all and seems possible and probable at some point. Pakistan is known for it's erratic behavior and split Govt./Military situation.

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  194. $35!!!! Never thought I'd be happy to cross that threshold again! fml

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  195. @Evil. Thanks for the heads-up on the Dow. What happened to PM's in the same simulation?

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  196. @marco I disagree about the monkey reading the turd. I've had thoughts like those before, but if you consider what a minority we are here, the ee would be foolish to bother taking our little group into any consideration at all.
    My local deal and I often joke, we are not even one tenth of one percent of the population (interested in PM's)
    Blythe would never waste her time here unless she's a total idiot. She does after all oversee all commodities across the board. Even in the areana that has become the silver market, we turdites are ants compared to sprott and the peoples bank of china.
    This is a much larger series of events than another attempt to manipulate the silver market.
    To bother coming here to see what we think or write for the EE would be like Darth Vader going down to the tatooine cantina to see what sentiments the 'locals' there have about the actions and policies of the empire. They have control of the deathstar, 'they' could care less what we think/feel/want etc.
    And say they did monitor this site, what 'strategy' would they be able to discern from turds posts and our comments? Them being in the know, we must look like a bunch of blind people fumbling around and discussing where the light switch might be. If anything, 'they' might stop by for some entertainment.
    An old addage comes to mind actually, in times of light, the blind person is a horrible guide, for anyone can see the path as it is illuminated with the light of common knowledge, but in the dark times, when all are blind, the blind person is the very best guide, as they alone know the way well enough to go without looking.

    In the land of the blind the one-eyed Turd is king! Happy conco de mayo everyone, and thank you again Turd for being yourself.

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