Tuesday, November 30, 2010

This Might Take a Minute

Several items to touch upon this evening so please bear with me.

First of all, I need to extend a genuine, humble "thank you" to all of you who have "fed the turd" today. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine this outpouring of support and it is greatly appreciated. I plan to use the donations to buy some silver, of course. I'll post a picture of my purchase when I make it. Additionally, our little site had a record 8,113 pageviews today. This is a mind-blowing number. 3MM annualized, for crying out loud! In all sincerity, thank you.

If you haven't gotten your daily Harvey yet, I suggest you do it now.
Unprecedented happenings at the Death Star! At this point, there are some 27.14 million ounces of silver standing to be served and delivered. If you're keeping score at home, that's 844 metric tons! By the way, if you're wondering how I did that conversion, keep this site handy:
Anyway, back to the Comex...Of course, not all those standing will, in fact, demand delivery...but...844 metric tons!!! That's about 5% of all global annual production! Holy moly, the next few weeks are going to be very, very interesting.

On to today/tonight's action on the Globex. As I type, the Feb11 gold is at 1390.10 with a high of 1391. March11 silver is 28.21 with a high of 28.25. Gold is particularly interesting. If it can draw away from 1389 overnight, it'll probably run up and tap 1400 before the Comex open tomorrow. At this point, Blythe and Her Monkeys have two options:
1) Bad
2) Worse
She can cling to this silly, H&S top notion and try to jam it down overnight. Absent some global "event", I don't think she'll try it. Too much genuine momentum against her at this point. More likely, she'll fall back to the area between the all-time closing high of 1412 and the all-time intraday high of 1426. She'll fight like hell to paint a "double-top" there for sure. Will it work? Who knows? Who cares? Even if it does work, it will only be temporary. Go back and look at her pathetically unsuccessful track record of painting double-tops at all the previous "all-time highs". She's worse than Prechter! Hey, wait a minute...I've never actually seen Blythe and Bob together, in the same room. Hmmm....interesting. I digress. Sorry.
Silver continues to struggle with 28.20-25. Lots of contrived "resistance" there. I've got a hunch that by late tomorrow or early Thursday, silver will smash through, hit a bunch of "buy stops" and catapult up toward 29. Let's watch and see.

Next, I've been asked several times recently if I believe in the miners and, if so, which ones. OK, here you go. First, a disclaimer: I don't know any more about these equities than anyone else. I own them for various reasons, which I'll try to explain below, but that doesn't mean they're all going to work. Got it?

First of all, maybe you'd just like a plain, old mutual fund. My favorite is the First Eagle Gold Fund. Well diversified in quality companies and well-managed. Any registered financial advisor will be happy to sell it to you. Trust me, he/she is dying for a commission right now.

If you'd rather own an exchange traded fund (ETF), for pete's sake, don't buy the fraudulent GLD or SLV! (http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13341:the-seven-sins-of-gld&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131)
Check out GDXJ, instead. Its comprised of what are called "junior miners". The "juniors" are typically where you get your most bang for your buck and greatest leverage to rising metals prices. Here's a link:

The five miners I currently own are: EGO, TRE, NG, SVM and EXK.

EGO: I must admit that I got this one from Cramer. Big presence in China and, at 17.44, its about $3 of its all-time high.

TRE: This is Santa Sinclair's little baby. I figure that if anyone knows how to run a gold exploration company and not screw it up, it's General Jim. I also own it because, one of these years, I'm going to attend the annual shareholder meeting and finally buy Jim a beer. Its also a point off its highs.

NG: Simple greed led me to this one. I'd read that it was a possible takeover candidate and the chart looked OK so I bought some at 8 something. Its now 14 and change. Working pretty well...so far.

Now, for the other two. They are in silver and, as you know, I've very excited about silver right now so these are my two biggest % holdings. They are junior and explorative companies. Riskier but more upside than say PAAS or SSRI.

SVM: I own this one because, like EGO, it has great exposure to China and it seems to be relatively solid financially. I also think uninformed people drive the demand for it because of its name "Silvercorp", think "Goldcorp". Kind of a lame reason, I admit. But, hey, I think that's a better fundamental reason than some of the nonsense spewed by CNBS all day.

EXK: Had it for a while and it became a top holding when I read this:
Interesting, huh? We'll see but I like it. A lot. It's also run into profit-taking lately and, at 6.21, is down about a dollar from its recently-attained, all-time high of 7.16.

Finally, be sure to review these charts from Trader Dan at JSM. New all-time, monthly high set today for gold. Remember, the hourly and daily charts are for short-term trading only. The real, long-term, secular bull market in gold can be plainly seen in these charts. Ignore the fool top-callers!!

So there you have it. That's enough for today. Time to go spend some family time.
Rest well. Let's see where things are tomorrow morning U.S. time. Another $9B in POMO is scheduled for tomorrow so, absent armageddon, we'll probably have another fun day. Turd night night.

 8:25 EST update: As mentioned above, gold did draw clear of 1389 overnight. The Feb11 contract reached a high of 1398.30. The March11 silver actually traded as high as 28.88. Though, the EE has done a little of their 7:00 am dirtywork, the pullback has not been too significant.
Almost everything is up this morning as the dollar rally appears over at it reached the 81.50 level I'd mentioned back on Monday. Watch 80.80 on the DecUSDX for confirmation. Again, lots of POMO today so lets see if we can break 1400 and 29. More later.


  1. Turd, thanks very much for your guidance. I've just donated about 4oz of silver worth of fiat money to you. Sorry the donation is in USD, but PayPal does not have a "Pay in silver" option (yet)...

  2. Turd: This is ASKBAS. Finally got in. I just wanted to say I picked you up on zerohedge. You were one of the few people posting who weren't speaking in code. Great site but seems like everyone posting was a member of a club. Kinda like listening to an inside joke but you're not in on it. You do seem to have your finger on the pulse of things and explain it so us dummies get it. Like Harveys site too but don't really understand the OI info he puts out. Maybe you could comment on that in laymans terms. Lastly, and probably most important for me, you and your postings act as a calming influence when things come under attack. Keep up the good work.

  3. Just today I was thinking, "look at all those double tops" on the last coupla years worth of charts. You do rock Sir Ferguson. Bberg says silver had 14% pop in November because it's "a cheaper alternative to gold". lol

  4. Delivery Notices are up for the day:
    Gold: 1098 (6114 for the month)
    Silver: 34 (90 for the month)

    Interesting that people seem eager to get paid for their Gold, but nobody wants to turn over their Silver.
    Source: http://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsReport.pdf

  5. The Monkeys are under attack!

  6. . . .here come the night shift time zone folk - HAD to report silver @ 28.25 & rising *wink*

    busy time for me, so it's lovely to be able to get my concise PM news & updates at chez turd, read the informative, entertaining posts & commentary (some great links, thanks all!). . .

    AND I spotted the Turd-Feed button - well done! - pressed & fed, and will make sure you & the mrs. get more snacks in the future. . .

    the energy is palpable, deep breaths everyone.

  7. I have been following your writng for a while on ZH and now here and I want to say thank you. The wife and I have put our savings into PMs and are doing quite well. Thanks for all you do. Keep it up. ps. Fed the Turd!

  8. By the looks of it, there is a high probability that the Asian traders may run us into new highs tonight!

  9. Preliminary Open Interest numbers are posted
    Gold Dec10: Down 7910 to 7285
    Silver Dec10: Down 3485 to 1943

    Source: http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2010231.pdf

  10. Do you think we may have a dip in silver in the next 2 weeks? We are small investors and trying to buy the dips. but they are getting a lot harder to hit. Even 26.00 physical would be nice.
    I know folks make fun of me as being a small investor and late to the dance. I'm learning I wonder if they are?

  11. Recent interview with Lorne Waldman, Corporate Secretary of SVM ...


    PS - Thanks Turd for the insightful commentary, and thanks to all for the discussion around each post.

  12. We're all learning all the time. It's never to late.

  13. I have learned so much I'm a very small investor but even I have a couple of pounds of silver and got a few others onboard. Well do a cost averaging and keep buying. I think buying silver is good all on its own. If I can grab that last ounce and catch JPM all the better.

  14. @ adventures: I wouldn't hold out for a dip that big anytime in the next 2 weeks. Given that PM's just recently corrected it's unlikely we're going to see $26 anytime soon. At least not unless something outrageous and world changing happens. If you're going to be buying in the next two weeks I would say to just put your order in sometime tomorrow.

  15. TF, Tried to donate (albeit not big) but could not as I do not live in the US and apparently Paypal needs a US state to be specified. Keep going, your work is much appreciated by all here.

  16. Turd, do you see any risk that this Buyer of Size will stop buying any time soon? Or is the BoS looking to accumulate a serious (e.g. Sovereign Fund-like) position over time? Any whispers out of London on this?

  17. sumo: The BoS has been intent on rallying silver, in particular, since August. No signs of them stopping yet.

  18. For all interested, I tagged a small update to this blog a/o 8:30 edt.
    See above.

  19. Oops, spoke too soon. Never, ever underestimate the ability of the EE to spring and attack, especially between 7:00 and 9:00 eastern US.
    Blythe just managed to take about $8 out of gold in about 3 minutes. Price held at 1383 and is now already back up $5.
    Its gonna be an interesting day.

  20. Its simply criminal what The Monkeys do. Now that you've been made aware, watch the action every morning to see the direct EE reversal of the overnight action. Happens about 2 days out of every 3.
    I promise you, if ever elected to Congress, The Turd will demand a Special Prosecutor and hearings to end this crap.

    Turd 2012!

  21. Maybe you should write to Chilton at the CFTC. I heard an interview with him the other day and he sounded like a straight shooter who was actually interested in hearing from the public.

  22. "Turd" is a name I'd LOVE to see on the 2012 ballot. :] ...you know..it's funny. Turd is a complete stranger to most (all?) of us but I think it's that you've got a track record of spending your time and resources to help people like me ...that's why we are all so eager to help/support you in your efforts.

    Adventures In Self Reliance: I am in exactly the same boat as you. Heck..I'm just a mom and a small time Ebay business store and website owner. I was in denial for the better part of last year that any of this could actually happen so now I am kicking myself and trying to catch up. Have a few good (I hope) mining stocks, just over 400oz of silver and a growing stash of food. I so want to build all of those resources much FASTER... but am limited by what I can spend on them. I'm worried. But I am also one who believes that the best you can do is all that you can do and then just trust in God. He may let us go through some bad times.. but He will also provide blessings enough to set things back right if we do our best and help others to prepare too.

    I don't have alot of technical stuff to offer here to help so I do hope posts like mine that are not as 'useful' will still be ok.. ..If not, it won't offend me.. I'll just hang out and read and learn!! Thank you all for the insights..

  23. uh ....it's looks like I typed 4000 ounces of silver above. ...I WISH!! ....it's 400 ounces. "/ ....NOT ENOUGH!!!... ...would love to see a huge dip in January when I'll get a bit of money. sigh.

  24. Ok.. this is the last comment from me on this thread..but I just realized that I had posted a 'Thank You' to Turd last night on this thread thanking him for the stock info.. and I don't see my reply now. That's weird. I thought for sure I had posted it. ...Anyway.. no matter.. just wanted to say thank you. ..And I had posted that I do have 2 of the stocks you mentioned Turd.. EXK & EGO.. ..I appreciate the info you provided and will look into diversifying more.

  25. Woke up sick as a dog this morning but somehow mustered up the energy to see what Sir Turd was up to. Back to bed now.

  26. Awww yeah. This is what I like to see.

  27. What this means, simplified:

    Many people cannot afford to make their mortgage payments. Whether from predatory loan, no doc loan, outright fraud, loss of a job, or what not, the underlying issue matters not. What does matter, is that one who cannot pay their mortgage payment on time, is supposed to lose the home to the lender through foreclosure. toner It is called different things in every state, but the basic process is the same much like q2612a.