Thursday, November 18, 2010

Turd's Crystal Ball

I get asked often just how I'm able to so accurately price movements in gold and silver. It's not complicated. You can do it, too.

Once you admit to yourself that gold and silver are not free "markets" in the traditional sense, you're halfway to Junior Turd level. The Evil Empire, at the behest of The Treasury Department and Federal Reserve actively manipulates/suppresses price through the creation of unbacked, "paper" gold. In short, they raid the price by picking moments of bid weakness to simply overwhelm the bids with an avalanche of sell orders. This causes a period of rapid price drops. Tomorrow I will post a price chart from November 3rd that clearly shows their dirty, unfair work.

Now, once you know who's in charge, a quick study of the daily and intraday charts can give you ample warning of where and when the EE will attack. Their favorite time to attack is always going to 7:00-9:00 am eastern. Volume gets very quiet then as Asian and European traders are calling it a day but Americans haven't yet had their morning coffee. These early session raids are so utterly predictable that they almost become comical in the blatancy. Later, if you have a few minutes, review this:“fixed”-it’s-rigged

Absolutely one of the best, well-researched and complete reports on the Evil Empire manipulation ever written. As a bonus, in the comments section, you get to read some of the nonsense one "johnny bravo" used post for laughs. What a tool that guy was.

OK, on to today. As predicted via Crystal Ball, gold traded to 1358 overnight. Between 7:00 and 9:00 EST, it took four stabs at that level before finally giving up. On cue, here came the EE and price was driven back from 1357 to 1348 in 41 minutes, beginning at 8:51 EST. It has since stabilized around 1350  Silver was similarly beaten back from the expected resistance level at 26.60. It rolled back down to 26.35 but it is already beginning to crawl its way back higher and that is the key.
Again, as mentioned yesterday, silver is now the driver. I expect silver to consolidate this morning but then drive higher, through 27 and on to 27.50-75, maybe as soon as tomorrow. This would bring gold along with it, maybe to 1365 or so.

That's it for now. I'll try to update again later, closer the Comex close.


  1. It also looks like funny stuff often happens at 12:00 EST. (Lunch hour?) It couldn't be that simple...could it?

  2. Kitco/Bruce:
    "This could be the start of the hundred dollar swings in that situation the only place to be is in the stocks and hold on to your physical. As i can see in the last few months the traders are making smaller and smalle profits with less success. I have also seen charts now that are no longer working this is the times for the start of the hundred dollar moves.
    Get some gold stock is all i can say or have deep pockets.
    Could today be a 90 dollar move yes!!"
    Turd - do you expect such moves towards 1500?
    So far i don't see 'em - and instead I still view these as orderly moves.

    Question though is how far away should we have (trailing) stops? Is there a general rule in such an environments?
    Stops always x bucks below the last level of support - so right now around 1350 - x?
    Where x is something in between 5 and 10?
    Assuming this is a position trade towards > 1500 and not a scalp of course.

    So far I just stick to trend channel support - 30min. If we trend higher in this channel we should see 1390 around Nov 22. Next stronger resistances should be 1365 and then 1375 and then around 1388 - at each of which we might see some shots of the EE.


    Something which catches my eye - WTI ... that one looks explosive and could mach back to 89 within a few days (i.e. Nov 23) - not?

  3. Yes, Harold, it could.

    Hamster, I've found it challenging to use stops in tis environment. I'm having better luck just anticipating where/when the EE will intervene and then front-running them.

  4. This is fantastic of opinions in real time...

  5. This is interesting...

  6. James Turk:

    With gold and silver taking off to the upside, King World News interviewed James Turk today out of Spain. Turk commented, “What we are seeing right now is the breaking apart of the gold cartel. They are losing control of the market just like they did back in the late 1960’s when gold began trading above $35 in the cash market in London, even though the price was still officially fixed at $35. The market was simply saying, we just don’t believe this $35 price anymore.”

    Turk continues:

    “The same principle applies today. The same group that is trying to hold the price down is being overrun just like they were in the late 1960’s. Normally you would expect the gold market to fade into next week’s options expiry. The fact that we are so strong today is an indication that the shorts are being overwhelmed and I am looking for higher prices as a result.

    This could be explosive over the next few days if the shorts have to start buying because of delta-hedging on the calls that they have written. In other words, the more the price of gold rises, the more they have to buy. This can be a vicious cycle that feeds upon itself causing prices to explode.

    I like Pierre Lassonde’s observation in his new audio interview on King World News that gold is going significantly higher because of all of the money printing around the globe. Eric, Pierre is laying out the big picture as to why gold is going much higher in the years ahead.

    Silver is up a dollar from yesterday which is a good indication that this market is different from what we have seen all decade long. It’s like we discussed the other day, lower prices just increase the demand for physical silver. The amazing thing is that we are seeing this even in the paper market. Open interest on the Comex is growing, so if any longs were shaken out, new buyers came in to replace them. What that does is put the silver shorts in an impossible position because now they are trapped short.”

    What Turk is saying is the the gold cartel is on the verge of suffering a major defeat in the gold war. With regards to silver, let’s just say they have been defeated and are now in the process of a full retreat.

  7. AGoldhamster: great posts...much thanks...

  8. TF, don't speak his name too often, he may come back! :)

  9. It feels so good to just sit and watch these guys implode.

  10. I introduced myself with "Holy crap!" in today's post. This sure is a small crowd. I've read of James Turk's stuff for years and recently starting reading off that King World News site every day, it seems.

    AGoldhamster, I hope you're right about the silver shorts being in retreat since September, when the amount of shorts being piled up on price runups started to get noticeably smaller.

    It's hard to believe that we are finally here, at this point. I myself don't want to believe that since I went on vacation this week and don't have to be back until March 8th or so, I would be put in a position where I can turn in my resignation at my job ANY TIME I WANT, as soon as I make some strategic moves FIRST, all because enough people stand for delivery to finally break COMEX.

    What do I do with my life?! Where do I go next? Do I have to necessarily put up with winters anymore? Do things on the job I don't necessarily believe contributes to a solid foundation for society, all that?

    Wait a minute, wait a minute (pinches myself), but I'm not dead, though, I think... (reference to The Sixth Sense) Is it possible someone gave me an exit ticket out of hell six years ago, and here I am, on the other side? Kinda hard to believe...

    The exit ticket was given to me as a Christmas gift in the form of a Canadian Maple round and a few pieces of silver jewelry by a wealthy woman who had studied the story for a few years before 6 years ago, and she gave me specifically Ted Butler's name.

    I just find it hard to believe that it can happen...


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