Thursday, November 18, 2010

Very Early Thursday

Very late evening/early Thursday update:  Dec10 gold 1353 & Dec10 silver 26.25

Be sure to read Harvey...

I simply cannot stress enough the significance of these events on the Comex. To scare $4 out of silver yet the OI only contracts a couple couple thousand contracts? Words cannot describe how unprecedented this is. I have referenced a buyer(s) of size for months. The BoS has seemed intent upon breaking the EE and their Death Star (the Comex). At times I must admit to fearing that I was reading too much into the price action...maybe I'm just chasing specters amongst the shadows. But with each passing day, as we head in to late November, it becomes more apparent that my vision is 20/20. The BoS seem determined to break the EE, if not in December then very, very soon.

Buckle up tight and hang on. We live in historic times. Much fun is immediately over the horizon.


  1. its screaming right now and the trends are vertical so far in Asia.. im curious to see how it pans out here come December..

  2. Hi, Brandon.
    Yes, very strong price action right now. We'll probably see 1358-60 overnight before the EE will comes in around 7:00-8:00 EST and begins beating it back.
    Don't be surprised if we get another look at 1345-50 tomorrow morning.

  3. BoS ... Buyers of Size

    Turk: "For example, UK banks have $222 billion of exposure to Ireland, of which “about $42 billion” according to the WSJ is “to Ireland’s battered banking sector”. German banks have $206 billion exposure to Ireland, of which $46 billion, the WSJ estimates, is to Irish banks. When France, Spain and the other EU countries are added in, European bank exposure to Ireland could run well over $100 billion, and probably does because EU officials are now talking about a €100 billion ($136 billion) rescue package for Ireland – hmmm, I mean a rescue package for European banks because that is who will really benefit. So where is this money coming from? The ECB will create it – as the saying goes – ‘out of thin air’.

    The ECB already demonstrated last May during the height of the Greek debt crisis that it will bend to the will of EU politicians. The ECB started buying Greek government debt back then, breaking a long-standing promise not to do so. In the process, it also violated the most fundamental building block upon which it was formed – namely, that the ECB would remain independent of political control like the Bundesbank, the model upon which the ECB was to be based.

    So barely six months after bailing out Greece with a massive giveaway that placed a burden on the rest of the EU and called into question the fundamental worth of the euro, EU officials are again facing the disintegration on the fringes of the cockamamie empire of Brussels’ bureaucrats. Another European domino is ready to fall, and after it topples, a lot more are lined up around the globe, including the biggest debtor of them all – the US government."

  4. Fractal man Nichols:

    Wednesday was an uneventful day, which should be just the mellow consolidation period directly ahead of the fireworks at the end of this week.

    Day 86 for this timing cycle arrives on Thursday (Nov. 18th), which should bring some more drama into the gold market. This big cycle date typically triggers a strong and energetic reversal in a market either on the last day of the cycle, or more frequently, on the first day of the new cycle.

    Since there have been a few hard down days on the way to this Day 86, my guess is Thursday will turn out to be a relatively mild end to this cycle, with perhaps a half-hearted push down to probe the lows, but nothing as dramatic as we’ve been seeing. As I discussed in the last report, gold is free to “waffle around” and consolidate near the lows right here, as the big 38.2% retracement has already been hit on Tuesday’s drop.

    This $1,330 - $1,335 area is a big energy level for the massive growth pattern, and I can actually trace its “fractal roots” all the way back to the genesis of this pattern 11 years ago. So there is a reason why this current drama is playing out around these levels, as it’s linked to the way energy scales over time and distance in a financial market. This level should continue to hold up gold prices, and it is a perfect springboard to much higher levels.

    So again, we should expect the general weak tenor to continue in gold on Thursday to finish up this cycle, which will set up a big upside reversal on Friday as the new cycle gets underway.

    I also need to mention at least once more that the energy surge from the next up cycle may be delayed by one week. It’s unusual — and more than a bit confusing — to have 2 distinct timing cycles only 5 trading days apart, but that is our situation here in gold. However, we should have little trouble interpreting the action in real-time, as the energy surge from a new cycle is not hard to recognize.

    It looks to me like the energy mix is right for the upside reversal to hit this Friday. This should lead to an epic hyper-growth phase lasting either 43 trading days (2 months) or 64 trading days (3 months).

  5. Reminder - in one of my last posts: Cyclist has the low, since weeks already, Nov 18th - that is today; so I guess not only Gold will start flying. The bottoming action in indices looks pretty good and BTW like gold also indices snapped sharply north ...

    just that I still don't know what the reason was - due to the DOWs action I can't be a Gold or Silver short squeeze and some think ... must have been some good news in Asia ...

  6. sorry for the spelling errors - once more the second part:

    just that I still don't know what the reason was - due to the DOWs action it can't be a Gold or Silver short squeeze as some think ... must have been some good news in Asia ...

  7. Hi, great blog you have running here. I am noticing the big up-turn now too. I am excited to see what it brings tomorrow.

    When you say the EE will likely try to beat it down, how do they do that? I know that raising the margins is one way. But what are their other devious methods? Are you talking selling lots of paper? Thanks

  8. Congrats Turd .. we have just seen 1358 print in midst of european session! And everything else is also rallying - and guess yesterday the buck peaked for this year.

  9. Whats up with Silver this morning? It beginning to look like a caged beast getting ready to break free.

  10. Wondering what the Flying Monkey Brigade has in store for us today.

  11. EE? OI?
    Turd, can you spell out the 1st usages at least for the newbies?

  12. nice recap on the Eurozone in your post

  13. To answer a couple of questions:

    1)The EE is the Evil Empire. Primarily composed of JPM and HSBC. These banks are known as "bullion banks" as they are the main providers of the almost endless supply of paper gold and silver on the Death Star (the Comex).

    2) OI is short for open interest...the total amount of open futures contracts for any one contract month. NOt all months are the same, however, as only every other one is a major delivery month. December is a major delivery month and, as such, high open interest shows that many more than usual are standing for delivery. Since the EE don't have physical backing for all the paper gold they create, the more contract holders that demand delivery, the more closer the EE gets to crumbling.

  14. The "Flying Monkey Brigade" in retreat.

  15. Yes, they are going to have to fall back to the 27.75 level. They'll fight like hell there, however.

  16. Thank you. What an excellent blog.