Below is a re-post of a blog entry from Tuesday evening, November 16. I re-post it tonight to prove(?) the idea I put forth that evening:
"I took some time tonight to review the charts of several of my favorite commodities and I found that they all have something in common.
After reviewing gold, silver, wheat, soybeans and crude, I found them all to about 1-2% away from what would be looked-back-upon as very logical bottoms. I find this quite interesting from a correlation standpoint.
We've all observed the PMs getting smoked for the past week. No doubt we've seen the entire commodity sector get smacked around pretty good. But would you have thought their charts looked so similar, not only on the upside the past six weeks but back down this past week, as well?
This draws me to a conclusion in which I am quite comfortable. What we have seen in the past week is a wholesale selloff of risk assets. Nothing more. The five commodities listed above are related only to the extent that they are dollar-denominated. For example, wheat has an entirely different set of fundos than gold but the wheat chart is almost identical in terms of percentage move.
As this relates to the PMs, it is further proof that we are simply seeing a price correction. Not a top. Not a new paradigm. Not a Wave 1 of Bear 1 of...blah, blah, blah Elliott nonsense.Gold will probably test today's lows and may even see 1320 but I am supremely confident that that is as far down as it will go.
Silver will test 25 again but no way it goes much below 24.75 before rebounding sharply.
Crude's gonna find a ton of support between 80 and 82.
Wheat may see $6. If it does, holy cow! The chance of a lifetime to buy. Very tight global stocks and a long, cold winter guarantee it won't go any lower.
Beans between 1160-75 are a steal.
My point, again, is that all these commodities are within the same % of very substantial support.
The change in sentiment that has caused this correction is very near the point where it will flip back.
Keep the faith. Buy this final dip. Much fun lies ahead."
OK, so what is the point? Well, I think I'm being proven correct. All five commodities were experiencing a simple correction; a temporary move away from "risk assets". Nothing more significant was happening. This is proven by the fact that all five stopped and reversed course almost exactly where predicted.
Gold: Had hit 1329 on 11/16 and double-bottomed at 1330 the next day. Now 1367. +2.86%
Silver: Same thing. Hit 24.98 on 11/16 and 25.02 on 11/17. Now 27.17. +8.77%
Crude: Made a low of 80.28 on 11/23. Now 85.89. +6.99%
Wheat: Hit 6.18 on 11/17. Now 6.50. +5.18%
Beans: Traded down to 11.75 on 11/17. Now 12.35. +5.11%
As this relates to the precious metals, these rebounds prove to me that the down move from 11/9 thru 11/17 was, however painful, just a simple price correction within the ongoing, secular bull market. Only if silver and gold make new closing lows below 24.98 and 1329 should you begin to get nervous that something more significant is happening. These numbers now provide a very telling "line in the sand" for us bulls. Until then, keep the faith. Buy all dips. Hold your ground. Rest well. Much fun lies ahead.