Friday, December 24, 2010

Absolute Advice (Re-Post)

First of all, I'd like to wish everyone a Happy Ramahannakwanzmas. More specific, since is is 12/24, Merry Christmas to all. Thank you everyone for making this site so much fun. It is your input, not mine, that is causing this site to grow so quickly. I am amazed every day by the quality and friendliness of the comments. We are here, "along the watchtower", to help each other and, more importantly, educate others regarding the perilous times in which we live. Let's keep it going!

To that end, I wish you all luck in dealing with family and friends these next few days. If you manage to win any converts, please direct them to our "glossary" before they get started. It may make the adjustment to Turd's World a little bit easier:

Lastly, I banged out this little missive back on the day before Thanksgiving. It's probably may favorite post to date but, since its now buried amongst the other 100 posts we've made and since its still the holiday season, I thought I'd take the liberty of re-posting it here today. Again, from the Fergusons to you and yours: All the best this holiday season! Be safe and have fun. Turd out.

Absolute Advice For Relatives

If you're like The Turd, you will most likely get peppered tomorrow with questions from pseudo-intellectual relatives regarding the current world/market environment. Your over-educated yet under-informed cousin or brother-in-law will seek out your current "wisdom" on investing, politics, etc. He or she will then feign interest while you speak but you will feel certain that, in the end, they just don't "get it" as your absolute conviction overwhelms their status quo mindset. You could probably talk for hours about the failure of Keynesianism, Quantitative Easing, the criminal political class, the fallacy of TBTF, POMO and the PDs, the infallibility of gold, etc...but why even try? Your cousin's husband doesn't understand any of this anyway and your show of intellect will only make him feel threatened. He'll quickly tune you out and run off to the family room to watch the Cowboys.

So what do you talk about tomorrow when someone asks? What kind of simple advice can give someone to prepare them for what is certain to be a very challenging year ahead? I plan to dial it back a bit and talk about one thing...inflation. And not just any old, run-of-the mill 3% inflation but serious inflation. I'm talking 20-30% inflation. Milk to $5/gallon kind of stuff. That is what's coming and its a topic most folks can actually get their arms around. Even the fuzzy-headed new boyfriend of your divorcee sister understands inflation and he might even be able to understand why its coming if you explain it well. (This is a chance for you to show off some of your worldly knowledge, too.)

Most folks with a high school-level understanding of economics (this includes your Fed governors) only understand and recognize demand-pull inflation. This is the classic demand side, Phillips Curve inflation that says rising wages, employment and wealth cause economic expansion which leads to more money chasing a static amount of goods. New, excess demand "pulls" prices up and the result is price inflation. Pretty simple stuff. What is coming in 2011, however, is the forgotten beast of cost-push inflation. This type of price inflation is caused by producers and merchants being forced to pass along through higher prices the rising cost of inputs to their products. Consumers, particularly the lower-and-middle income, bear the brunt of the pain.  Your income isn't rising to keep pace with rising expenses and you get squeezed. Hard. And its not luxury items that are going up in price, its the staples. Bread, milk, gasoline, clothes, eggs, meat...the basics that no one can realistically live without. It's going to hurt and 2011 is going to be a mean year.

Why will input costs go up? Simple, they are all dollar-dominated and with our Fed now engaging in their final policy option, "QE to Infinity", all dollar-dominated assets are going up in price. Significantly. Your crazy uncle Henry may never take your advice to sell his stocks and buy precious metals but he just might take your advice to stock up now on essentials, before the prices skyrocket. Tell him that if he's going out to buy a new pair of pants, he should buy two. Tell your sister that instead of just buying her kids' winter coats for this year, she should buy coats for next year, too. Tell your cousin that instead of buying groceries every week to, instead, buy a whole dressed-out cow and put it in the freezer along with all the other dried and canned goods she can store.

Still, most crazy relatives won't listen but at least, come next Christmas, they'll remember that you were right. One down side, however. Because you'll end up being the only member of the family that will have prepared and, most likely, the only one with affordable food to eat, you'll probably have to host everyone at your house next Christmas. Oh well, there's a cure for that, too. Wine. Lots and lots of wine. Keep a couple of good Pinots on reserve and you'll be able to handle just about anybody.


  1. RE-POST
    I forget who asked for this, and I'm heading out the door again, so...Merry Christmas y'all

    OK, I promised some deep due diligence on Tanzanian Exploration, symbol TRE:
    - Chairman is Jim Sinclair. Too much to write about him here, so get Googling. Suffice to say, there is no better gold man in the world. His father was partners with the legendary trader Jesse Livemore.
    - Tanzania has the most stable gov't in Africa
    - there is gold everywhere even in surface gravel. That gold van be recovered for ~$50; yeah, that's a decent profit margin
    - under the gravel are quartz reefs, filled with gold veins
    - read the last few press releases, including the private placements to get money for the needed crushers. Lots happening now, 2011 will be THE year for the first moonshot in share price IMO. Everything is falling into place now quickly.
    - I have heard there will never be any more shares, no dilution going forward. Once they begin producing, no need.
    - Heard the dividends per share structure will be very sweet indeed. 40% of profits within company to expand etc; 60% paid out in divy's- PAID IN GOLD.

    Enough for now. This is Jim's Grande Finale, I think it will be one hell of a ride.
    Should have added I am definitely talking my book here on TRE, I own a chunky-chunk. Please do your own DD, and if you have companies you like and have info on, share.
    This is quite the nice little community shaping up here in TurdLand. While I love ZH and Slope of Hope to name a few other blogs, my focus is PM's baby, and so far no trolls, hah.

  2. Merry Christmas to the Fergusons!

  3. The Magic Bus Gal and I are giving two ounces of silver to each of our family members. I figure, two ounces now to inform their opinions is better than taking them in after the crash. In honor of the holiday I am building a stable for my relatives next to the The Magic Bus Bunker.

  4. Merry Christmas and thanks for ALL of your hard work. I am a software developer by trade and this whole thing completely blind sided me while I was pounding away on key-boards. I've been watching your FUBM charts RELIGIOUSLY and eagerly wait the dips to hit buy. While it won't matter much in the long run, it does save me the up-front cashola now, which I'll need until I don't :)

    Don't know when it's all gonna punch us in the nuts, but the comment that this is all an "insurance" hedge is so much easier for people to swallow than just saying "we're effe'd, buy silver, food, guns, water etc etc".

    Thanks again and good luck to EVERYONE; And remember.. don't lose your humanity.

  5. Thank you Turd for all that you do. Merry Christmas to everyone and be safe for the new year.

  6. Clive Maund has his new charts up for perusing. His intro...

    Little has changed since the last updates were posted on the 5th December, but what change there has been has increased immediate upside potential in both gold and silver substantially, as the minor reaction in gold and sideways action in silver of recent weeks has served to further unwind the earlier overbought condition.

  7. I'm going to hedge next years party by buying all the wine for it today!

  8. Merry Christmas to all my fellow hermanos
    at Turd central and remember that TF has given us a community where we can share the love for fellow man. And we can fight for justice and Freedom from slavery.

    Be happy warriors for the truth and may all your dreams come true.


  9. @Pat Thanks an awfully lot about the TRE information and DD. I wasn't even considering having any $$ to invest in ANYTHING (all I have is my IRA) but yesterday got several thousand dollars in a totally unexpected dividend (GDXJ) and my first thought was to buy more SIL with it but depending on what the markets are doing when it gets paid at the end of the month, I think a company with Santa as Chairman is a damn good bet. I'll be doing my own DD between now and the 31st.

    @Turd I've been following your blog since the day you first posted the URL on ZeroHedge and it has become a several-times-per day stop for me. I haven't been able to post until now (though I've tried) since we're unemployed, have our internet cut off and my only access is using my cell phone. Today I finally get access to real internet and want to thank you for this very wonderful effort and tell you that I'm sure you are appreciated by many more people than ever manage to tell you how much. Happy Christmas to you and to us all.


  10. Merry Christmas to all, and to Mr. and Mrs. Turd.

    Here is a little bit of holiday cheer:

  11. Merry Christmas all, Santa is delivering 500 ounces of silver today. I also have been an earlier investor in TRE ($3.80) and now that it broke this flag will buy 50 contracts of July 11 $11 calls.

  12. Merry Christmas all and thanks Turd for the blog. I'm starting to visit it so much at work I might need to check myself before I get fired :P

  13. Merry Christmas dearest Turd ,merry Christmas dear friends.

  14. I feel somewhat abashed, posting the following on Christmas Eve, but it has to do with precious metals (which is why we're here) and it ties in with what Turd was saying about the inflation he believes is heading our way.
    I was browsing over at ZH and found the following, which may interest you if you haven't seen it already (concerning the JPM silver shenanigans). Here's the link:

    In the video, they mentioned the term "normalcy bias". Never heard it before, so I did some digging and stumbled across this:

    The site gives an interesting and informative explanation of normalcy bias, but what's even more interesting is the audio clip within the site itself (Stanberry's Investment Advisory). Basically, it's a 1.5 hour infomercial trying to get you to subscribe to their service, something I shy away from, but it is loaded with plenty of nuggets of wisdom, which I think you'll be interested in, and which go a long way towards explaining inflation and the screwed-up state of America in terms that even a meat-head can grasp. Quite informative, and worth the time to listen, I feel.

    Anyway, it's a rum and coke for me now and hoping that Santa will provide me his list of naughty girls. Peace and prosperity, all.

  15. Merry Christmas to one and all!!!!!!!!!!11

  16. Merry Christmas to all ! I too like marcus feels a little abashed about posting on Christmas eve but yet again this does concern PMs. The PMs I am talking about are a little different than what Turd spreads his wisdom here. Now my current position in the physical PMs is probably greater than most posting, watching, lurking here in Turd world. I wanted to spread a little wealth on one idea that EVERYONE should consider. Now I have ammased a pile of pretty much everything you could possibly imagine reagding tangibles you can think of but I just started on my latest buying binge and I wanted to share my thoughts with everyone here.

    The buying binge of lately for me has been the lonely United States "nickle" currently it contains 75% copper and 25% nickel.

    Considering I have had way to many Christmas drinks I will keep it short. You exchange $100 dollars of paper money for a box of nickels and you already made 30% profit the second you walk out the door because of the "melt value" is over .065 per coin. Granted it currently is illegal to "melt" US coins and some will think I am crazy but you really get the best of both worlds with this one. If inflation does not happen, you still have your $100 dollar box of US currency, when inflation does happen, you will have a box of a "metal with value more than face" kinda like the "junk silver" that was dis-continued back in the 1960's. Yes I am a student of history and history is about to repeat itself. Just image with your knowledge and a "time machine" to go back and tell everyone to stock "face value silver coinage 90% silver" back then you would.

    Just a thought to share knowledge and help as many as I can along the way.

    Northern Border a little tipsy out !

  17. Merry Christmas Turd and Mrs Turd.Think your blogg is excellent.Looking around I feel the problems and warnings of them mean there is a very good chance Silver and Gold could well go parabolic this next year.Merry Xmas to all.Remember modern fiat coins are usually Cupro Nickel can be up to 75% Copper and still have a Silver tone.Noticeable that there is less Silver around to buy.All the best for the New Year to everyone on this blogg,Bob.

    Stay warm,Buy Silver,Take down a bank,its your Seasonal Xmas & New Year Patriotic Duty.God Bless and lets hope for Peace in the World.

  18. The Chinese have raise interest rates.

    Full coverage on ZH

  19. Pat said...

    I forget who asked for this, and I'm heading out the door again, so...Merry Christmas y'all

    OK, I promised some deep due diligence on Tanzanian Exploration, symbol TRE:


    Would like to share some info with you re: TRE you can email me at

    Merry Christmas!!!!

  20. I hear all this talk about Blythe Masters being this evil queen...driving down the price of silver to cover some giant short...while some mysterious "BoS" tries to get it to go up. Is that about right?

    Well I'm here to say that you've got it ALL wrong...BM works FOR the BoS. A buyer ALWAYS wants the lowest's the seller who wants the price to go up. BM works under commission for the BoS to get their silver at a discount. She get's the buy orders together, dumps them at the opportune time to drive the price down, and starts scooping up again. She's paid by how much she can get it down for the buyers.

    I LOVE this woman! The regular volatility she creates...playing AGQ, I can regularly make $3+ a share a day. I just wait for her move...pounce...wait a few hours (maybe) and sell. Since the trend is definitely up...what other way IS there with QE and whatnot... Let her help you make a little money on the way up.

    Tell THAT to your relatives!

  21. @ Northern Border

    Funny you mentioned nickels. I just made a post the other day about it. Nothing groundbreaking for those in the "know," but for those who need a kick in the butt it's just a matter of time when the government will replace the nickel with some bullshit composition.

  22. Turd,

    Funds sent from Luxembourg today, with compliments for the site.

    Should be enough to get you 2 ounces of silver and a 40 of bud light.

    More on the way soon

  23. can someone repost here the link to a good article about how SLV GLD are fraudulent ticking time bombs?
    arguing w/ my uncle back and forth about it, (and how most ETFs can be inefficient rip-offs), but i need a good article to back up my words.
    oh yeah, he is an SEC attorney whose job it is to regulate ETFs. god help us all.

  24. Here, cookie. Try this:

  25. Thanks. His only defense was, did you read the prospectus? I'm telling you, save yourselves, because the regulators have no friggin' clue. I told him about zerohedge...said he was too busy to read it. Will probably go back to the office on Monday, download music, watch some porn, & sign-off on Barclay's latest quadruple leveraged copper ETF.

  26. I'm happy with my CEF holdings..