@kliguy38: It looks to me like they're sitting around waiting to buy the hell out of the dips, just like the rest of us should be doing. I'm not sure how that would equate to no thanks for cheaper silver...
Mark....thats my point...the BoS aren not letting the biatch give us any cheaper silver...it looks like they've said "thanks for the discount but we're going to take it higher".......time will tell....anyway I've fully reloaded my PSLV and PHYS cores (yes i did reduce my "core" ...a cardinal sin) so I was lucky and thankful to Blythe.
Turd, again thank you for your excellent analysis.
I posted earlier today some questions regarding whether, in the future, silver might "only" be an expensive industrial metal and not a companion to gold in a new monetary system. I posted that at 5:30am my time, so I've since had a chance to wake up and think more about it a bit more.
Let's say we take it as an article of faith that China is the BoS. We have no direct evidence, but let's say they are. Assuming they are, has anyone asked WHY they are buyers? We know that they are building up industrial capacity, as the next step in moving up the manufacturing value chain. They'll need lots of silver, just as they have needed, and still need, lots of iron ore, coal and copper.
Who's to say that China is not buying silver merely to stockpile it for industrial use? (They may also be buying gold as a store of value and to diversify out of paper money). We have seen over the last few years what happens when China slows its purchases of iron ore, coal or copper.
Anyone have any thoughts? These uncertainties make me cautious about going too overweight in my silver holdings vs my gold holdings.
If China fully believes in silver as money they'd shut silver export down, and yet that's not happening.
Then on the other hand they've been telling people to invest in gold and silver since last year so there’s definitely a purpose behind it. Silver has been money historically in China. They call banks in Chinese phrase as, in straight translation, “silver depot” or “silver warehouse”. So it’s a mixed signal.
Will we see a historical 1:17 gold to silver ratio after gold becomes the reserve currency again? I don’t know. I believe for silver to gain substantial monetary status, the price has to go lots higher to get traction.
You may consider buying official mint coins only in future though they come w/ a higher premium.
Reasons being: 1. Huge bars might be difficult to trade if the price goes up. Say if silver goes to 200$/Oz then your 50-Oz sells at 10,000 which triggers an IRS report. No good.
2. Risk of counterfeit. It's hard to counterfeit 1Oz coins especially official mint. 100Oz and 50Oz bars are chunky and opens the door for fraud. Not that your bars are fake but if the buyers have doubt there'd be hassle of assay and so on.
Official mint coins don't have the above issues. I like maple leaves in particular. Big bars are excellent for long term storage though, especially if they are of the well respected JM, Canadian Royal .9999 or similar brands.
@ Rui why would $10k trigger IRS report? i thought that was only if you had money in a foreign bank and had to file FBAR. i have been buying bars from apmex that are not name brand, but say, for example san francisco mint. will this be a big problem? thanks!
Rui, I bought the generic brand from gainesville coins because of the cheaper premium. I'm looking to diversify my PMs with rounds and bars alike so eventually I'll have a little of everything. Thanks for the great info.
What I don't understand is why the BOS and I guess 'we' even care about the price of silver going up. I mean sure, we get vindication etc, but should we not relish the opportunity as it stands. The price today is not so different to where it was a month ago. If the price halves, we will just continue to stockpile, but just get a better exchange rate. If I was a buyer of such magniture that my movements affected the value I'd relish the work of BM. The only benefit I can see in the BOS buying the dip is that they know that’s all they can do because the market is going up whether they are in it or not.
I remember a sale over 10,000 automatically triggers IRS record. I could be wrong but that's in my mind.
Safe to say anything from APMEX is fine. An easy way to judge the quality of coins is to look at the image. Does the front side and the back side align well? Are there any rough edges on the coin? The more refined the better.
Fourth: Personally, I feel the idea of the BoS being the Chicoms is a bit overdone. I've always felt that our BoS was a loose consortium of global, big money individuals.
Rui: Personally I don't envision any PM selling for some time. Unless I see some AG-AU ratio signs that would make it worth my while to convert more Ag to Au. I've been a big fan of Ag, FOFOA would consider me a "silverite". I believe history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme..values and stores of exchange are what the A and B side make 'em imho. Where I'm headed, the hillbilly crew will work with whatever they have...I've seen and experienced already in this tough winter...deer kill down to 1400..last winter was tough and people are strugglin'. I guess in a way I'm like ol' Turd. I aint transplantin to another country. for what?!? I'll make due with resources here...i'll try to help out with what I can in ol' south branch! anyone read those firefox books...I'm polishing up myself
needless to say, best chart i've seen all month.
ReplyDeleteUppercut!
ReplyDeleteprefer the view upside-down ;)
ReplyDeleteI just got the FUBM comment. Funny!
ReplyDeletehey Turd - the balance of my paypal account is CHF 11.64.
ReplyDeleteIt's yours - I'll let you pick the day the transfer takes place though...a week maybe?
Master's moment.....Looks like BoS is saying no thanks to cheaper silver
ReplyDeleteJust about $1 round trip today in about 3 hours.
ReplyDelete@kliguy38: It looks to me like they're sitting around waiting to buy the hell out of the dips, just like the rest of us should be doing. I'm not sure how that would equate to no thanks for cheaper silver...
ReplyDeleteMark....thats my point...the BoS aren not letting the biatch give us any cheaper silver...it looks like they've said "thanks for the discount but we're going to take it higher".......time will tell....anyway I've fully reloaded my PSLV and PHYS cores (yes i did reduce my "core" ...a cardinal sin) so I was lucky and thankful to Blythe.
ReplyDeleteI picked up 5 100 oz J-M bars last Friday at 28.90. Needless to say, I could't be happier!
ReplyDeleteJD
watch 9.45 EST everyday of the week, this has been going on for 2 years, guaranteed daily short scalp plus bonus low entry buy
ReplyDeletehttp://24knews.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=381
Turd, again thank you for your excellent analysis.
ReplyDeleteI posted earlier today some questions regarding whether, in the future, silver might "only" be an expensive industrial metal and not a companion to gold in a new monetary system. I posted that at 5:30am my time, so I've since had a chance to wake up and think more about it a bit more.
Let's say we take it as an article of faith that China is the BoS. We have no direct evidence, but let's say they are. Assuming they are, has anyone asked WHY they are buyers? We know that they are building up industrial capacity, as the next step in moving up the manufacturing value chain. They'll need lots of silver, just as they have needed, and still need, lots of iron ore, coal and copper.
Who's to say that China is not buying silver merely to stockpile it for industrial use? (They may also be buying gold as a store of value and to diversify out of paper money). We have seen over the last few years what happens when China slows its purchases of iron ore, coal or copper.
Anyone have any thoughts? These uncertainties make me cautious about going too overweight in my silver holdings vs my gold holdings.
@GG
ReplyDeleteIf China fully believes in silver as money they'd shut silver export down, and yet that's not happening.
Then on the other hand they've been telling people to invest in gold and silver since last year so there’s definitely a purpose behind it. Silver has been money historically in China. They call banks in Chinese phrase as, in straight translation, “silver depot” or “silver warehouse”. So it’s a mixed signal.
Will we see a historical 1:17 gold to silver ratio after gold becomes the reserve currency again? I don’t know. I believe for silver to gain substantial monetary status, the price has to go lots higher to get traction.
A learning PM noob here, what does "BoS" stand for? Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, just received shipping confirmation for my first ever silver purchase (one 10oz and one 5oz bars).
thecoloredsky,
ReplyDeletesee Turd's Glossary posted on Dec. 6
make that Dec. 5
ReplyDelete@ sky
ReplyDeleteYou may consider buying official mint coins only in future though they come w/ a higher premium.
Reasons being:
1. Huge bars might be difficult to trade if the price goes up. Say if silver goes to 200$/Oz then your 50-Oz sells at 10,000 which triggers an IRS report. No good.
2. Risk of counterfeit. It's hard to counterfeit 1Oz coins especially official mint. 100Oz and 50Oz bars are chunky and opens the door for fraud. Not that your bars are fake but if the buyers have doubt there'd be hassle of assay and so on.
Official mint coins don't have the above issues. I like maple leaves in particular. Big bars are excellent for long term storage though, especially if they are of the well respected JM, Canadian Royal .9999 or similar brands.
@ Rui
ReplyDeletewhy would $10k trigger IRS report? i thought that was only if you had money in a foreign bank and had to file FBAR.
i have been buying bars from apmex that are not name brand, but say, for example san francisco mint. will this be a big problem?
thanks!
Thanks GG.
ReplyDeleteRui, I bought the generic brand from gainesville coins because of the cheaper premium. I'm looking to diversify my PMs with rounds and bars alike so eventually I'll have a little of everything. Thanks for the great info.
Guys,
ReplyDeleteWhat I don't understand is why the BOS and I guess 'we' even care about the price of silver going up. I mean sure, we get vindication etc, but should we not relish the opportunity as it stands. The price today is not so different to where it was a month ago. If the price halves, we will just continue to stockpile, but just get a better exchange rate. If I was a buyer of such magniture that my movements affected the value I'd relish the work of BM. The only benefit I can see in the BOS buying the dip is that they know that’s all they can do because the market is going up whether they are in it or not.
@ Cookie
ReplyDeleteI remember a sale over 10,000 automatically triggers IRS record. I could be wrong but that's in my mind.
Safe to say anything from APMEX is fine. An easy way to judge the quality of coins is to look at the image. Does the front side and the back side align well? Are there any rough edges on the coin? The more refined the better.
Fourth: Personally, I feel the idea of the BoS being the Chicoms is a bit overdone. I've always felt that our BoS was a loose consortium of global, big money individuals.
ReplyDeleteRui: Personally I don't envision any PM selling for some time. Unless I see some AG-AU ratio signs that would make it worth my while to convert more Ag to Au. I've been a big fan of Ag, FOFOA would consider me a "silverite". I believe history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme..values and stores of exchange are what the A and B side make 'em imho. Where I'm headed, the hillbilly crew will work with whatever they have...I've seen and experienced already in this tough winter...deer kill down to 1400..last winter was tough and people are strugglin'. I guess in a way I'm like ol' Turd. I aint transplantin to another country. for what?!? I'll make due with resources here...i'll try to help out with what I can in ol' south branch! anyone read those firefox books...I'm polishing up myself
ReplyDeleteSounds like a tough mountaineer, cheers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/jp-morgan-shifting-its-silver-and-gold-shorts-non-us-domiciled-and-thus-unregulatable-banks
ReplyDeletevery interesting development