As noted above, only a decisive move through 1370 and a daily close below there would be cause for concern and even if that were to come to pass, it only means that 1350 may be in the cards. No big deal and a terrific buying opportunity should that hapen.
More likely, just sideways action for the next 100 minutes. If we can finish this day at about even, consider it a major victory. Then, with $16B in POMO tomorrow and Thursday, we should be able to put 1400 in the rearview mirror again.
Addendum: Please take time to read this. Its as if I wrote it myself. Thanks, Dan. Great work!
http://jsmineset.com/2010/12/14/implications-of-the-long-bond-price-collapse/
Turd,
ReplyDeleteYou see Mish's latest on silver? There is just no reaching this guy. I give up. I'm done posting on gold/silver over there.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/still-more-hype-regarding-silver-just.html
I love Mish's work for the detail that it offers on some of the major financial issues that broadly effect the PM's. I am somewhat surprised about his stance on silver but I like occasionally getting some challenging feedback from a respected source. I think it's good actually.
ReplyDeleteI agree with him that Chilton could end up doing something that silver longs don't like, such as limiting long positions as well as short. If you read Chilton's comments you'll see he's not just going after JP Morgan's short silver position. He talks a lot about "speculators" in general driving up prices of commodities. So yeah, be careful what you wish for.
ReplyDeleteI smell 31 coming our way.
ReplyDeleteWell if people continue to take delivery of physical silver what can they do to keep the price from rising?
ReplyDeleteThanks Turd for your excellent blog and insight. I have been lurking for a while and thought I should finally chirp in.
I do not believe that JPM has covered any significant portion of that silver short. Now, they may have offloaded a portion of it to another financial institution. By carving the huge short position up into different trading accounts associated with other firms, they could bypass position limits and pretend to be in compliance, which looks like the song they are beginning to sing. But until the COT shows a reduction in the TOTAL commercial net short position in silver, then no part of that short has really been covered.
ReplyDeleteBut even if they split it up, it will still be centrally or collusively managed. It has to be or else the short squeeze would be on. The only change will be that some of the flying monkeys will log into different accounts.
Mish is a good generalist and he should stick to generalities.
ReplyDeleteflaunt: I've been saying this, too. Position limits will be on both the long and short sides. Outside of the PMs, the concern is that too much long speculation drives up prices in the relatively tiny futures markets of cocoa, sugar, coffee etc.
They long-term effect on PM trading would be positive if the EE were to be reined in. The short-term effect? Hard to say.
btw, 1405 and 29.80 here at 1:00 est should be enough to make all of us about 2/3 stiff.
ReplyDeleteI'm 7/8 there!
ReplyDeleteSinclair is correct overall but a couple of notes....The initial effects of QE were to stabilize the housing collapse. A lot of refies were made with the lowere rates and now Ben is letting the 10y float a little and that helps Ben's banks on the yield curve...Ben can also claim "better economic data" as an underlying reason. Look for Ben to keep rates in a range 3-3.5 over the next few months...Here is the kicker...I am hoping this is the scenario...if they can keep this ponzi together this year then you can tactically manuever in this market and the paper trades.......however if we see silver exploding to the levels of 2to 500/oz then we are not going to like the investment world we all trade in.....it'll be Mad Max stuff......I'll take 500/oz but how about 5 years.....unfortunately that may not be a choice....just be careful what we all wish for.
ReplyDeleteThis bond stuff scares me, fortunately it takes 6 months to push through on the economy and another 6 to affect Joe and society in general.
ReplyDeleteAre you guys staying in the US?
I live in the economically "good part" of Europe, and still I believe things may get ugly here. Don't even wanna know what will be going on in the US by then...
I'm still up in the air about staying in the US. A lot hinges on what goes on in 2011. If Ron Paul decides to make a presidential run in 2012 I'll probably stay.
ReplyDeleteAre we on the verge of a breakout? Gold coiling up again above 1400...very interesting week indeed.
ReplyDeleteWe are witness to Blythe Masters death throes!
ReplyDeleteWowza, the 30 year bond just pounded through 120 and the ten through 119.5. Fuck, make that 119.5 and 119.25. I know all y'all are probably watching this too, but I don't have much else to say today. PM getting a hammering, obviously...
ReplyDeleteGreat thread Turd… getting better every day!
ReplyDeleteBtw, shouldn’t you be answering in “question form?”
Good strength by the PMs today! To the Fast Money gang… how’s that short call working for you?
Blythe has lots of help (remember Andrew Maguire)… she spreads the word to the inside crowd the day before (see late day weakness, and FM call… yes, they’re now “officially” part of the EE), and they all jump in for a quick (soon to be worthless) buck, once she starts the action.
One for the good guys today… hope they got burned big time!
SRV
Movements getting violent...breakout getting closer...
ReplyDeleteMark: I like the idea, but I don't think we have that much time. We will see a lot of the super bad stuff while Obama is still in office, and we saw how well that's has gone so far. If Ron Paul ran for office he wouldn't even be sworn in until 2013. That's too far away. I think that's when I would consider coming back. I have plans to be out of the country by August 2011 and soak up the rays in Costa Rica while the shit hits the fan here. Then hopefully come back and help rebuild.
ReplyDeleteFiend: Again, patience will be rewarded. The dollar CANNOT continue to rally in the face of this massive selloff in bonds. It can't and it won't.
ReplyDeleteJP Morgan is at it again. Can anyone stop these criminals?
ReplyDeleteBarclays, JPMorgan Violated S Korean Rules on Derivatives - FSS
http://tinyurl.com/2943h9f
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ReplyDeleteI hear ya Chris. A couple friends of mine and myself have been saving to buy land in Central America at some point next year as well. We're not set on a country yet though. I'm personally a fan of Guatemala and Belize. All but one of my friends seem to be capitulating, and I am wavering a bit because my parents just bought a farm in PA, and I'm considering moving there to try to help them get set up to be self-sufficient instead of leaving. In any case I continue to buy up as much silver as I can each month, I'm trying to start an online business, and all the while I've been building freelance web development connections to bring in more income now, but also so that I'll have work that will pay well and can be done abroad. That work may very well evaporate if the US gets thrust into chaos however. Your timeline/plan sounds like it's probably right to me, and it very well may be the same one I follow, but I'm trying to keep my options somewhat open because it's so hard to predict exactly when/how things will play out.
ReplyDelete