Friday, December 3, 2010

Can We Hit The Trifecta?

Just three days ago, we were able to close the month of November with new, all-time highs on the monthly chart in gold and new, post-1980 highs on the monthly chart in silver. Very bullish for the overall, long-term secular trend.

Today, we have a shot at hitting the exacta, maybe even the trifecta. For the record, the #s to watch are:

In gold: All-time weekly closing high is 1399.80
             All-time daily closing high is 1412
In silver: Post-1980 weekly closing high (looks to be a cinch) is 27.25
               Post 1980 daily closing high is 28.99

As I type at 10:52 EST, Feb11 gold is 1409.40 and March11 silver is 29.34.

New, weekly all-time closing highs would be very bullish for the intermediate term.
New, daily all-time closing highs would be very bullish for the short term.
Establishing new monthly, weekly and daily alltime highs within the course of three days would be extraordinarily bullish...The Trifecta!!!

Now, before we get our hopes up, lets start by aiming for Comex closes that would establish new weekly highs. If we get to 1:00 EST and Blythe decides to let the Monkeys leave early for the weekend, we can begin to get excited about hitting The Trifecta. To continue with the horsey analogy...As of this moment, our PM thoroughbreds are running 1-2-3 up the backstretch and headed toward the quarterpole. Can they maintain their momentum through the stretch and make it to the wire??

Hold on to your hats. The next 150 minutes will be very interesting, indeed.

12:30 EST update:
First up, please go back and review "Another Quick Buck" from yesterday. The Dec10 USDX is desperately trying to hold the bottom end of support at 79.25. Today's low is 79.27. Failure there will take it 78.60, then 78.20 and 77.80. It will be next to impossible for the EE to repel the PMs from new highs if the dollar continues this rapid collapse.
One hour to go and Feb11 gold is hanging in there at 1407 and March11 silver is 29.26. Keep an eye out for Blythe in this last hour as I can assure you that she is looking at the same numbers we are.

1:30 EST update:
Alright, then. What a great day and week. I have a Comex closing price of about 1406 in gold and 29.20 in silver. That gives us an extraordinarily bullish trifecta in silver and a very bullish exacta in gold!!
I'll try to add a summary and recap later this afternoon. In the meantime, however, I took some heat last week for suggesting that this week was going to be fun and UP, mainly because of the $36B in POMO that was coming. Now, of course, POMO wasn't the sole reason for this great week but, you have to admit, ole Turd made a nice call. Gold, for the week, up about $40. Silver up $2.30 or so. 
Again, more later. TF 


  1. Thanks for the horse racing visual.
    All I can think of now is Spike Jones' William Tell Overture...

    The race actually starts at the 1 minute mark.
    My money is on Beetlebomb!

  2. I think silver PET (plunge engineering team) is about to come out painting a double-top once it hits the 29.2 zone.

  3. Turd - what is the breaking point for JPM and the short silver trade? At what point does it start to 'show up' in their price.. any ideas?

    Gubbmint Cheese

  4. What do you think are the prices at which all bets are off, when control is completely lost?

  5. Gubb & Michelle: Impossible to predict the "breaking pint" ahead of time because of the opaque quality of the JPM and HSBC order books,
    In hindsight, however, you will be able to clearly see the days and weeks when they finally lost control.

  6. Here's an interesting story.
    Typical US government political BS. For political cover, form a "Blue-Ribbon Commission" to study a problem. Let said commission suggest solutions to problem. Politicians then completely ignore commission.

    These things used to be funny. Now, I am saddened. Not that the commission's recommendations would have helped anything but the "politicis as usual" in the face of our demise is, simply, disheartening.

  7. Speaking of horses and silver, it was at the racetrack that I met Nelson Bunker Hunt.
    Scene: Delmar, August 1977.
    I was at the paddock rail eyeballing the horseflesh being saddled for the next race when a great jostling and shoving force threatened my left flank. The Hoss Cartwright twin muscling in was NBH himself. Hunt had a powerful stable of thoroughbreds in those days (later auctioned off en masse because of some unfortunate market reversals). Mr. Hunt and I exchanged some sharp words, but civility was soon restored since he was twice my size and I was feeling quite cheery after the previous race. Things even got quite chummy after we chatted a little and he learned that I knew more about his horses than he did.
    We parted good buddies, never to meet again.

    Now what we learn from this story is:

    1) The silverbug, like fleas, can pass from host to host.

    2) Silverbuggery is a disease with a long incubation period, decades even.

    3) Silverbuggery is a progressive illness and can be financially fatal.

    Myself, I began showing symptoms when silver was at $14 and am now close to all-in terminal.

  8. Interesting story CF as I contemplate trading in some of my gold for silver. Currently about a 55% silver/45% gold ratio. Thinking of going 67/33 or thereabouts. We'll see, either way, I'm holding long on the physical and understand your "all-in terminal" problem completely!

    Best of luck to all!

  9. fyi, market closes at 13:30 not 13.

  10. troy: Always thankful for the pointing out of typos but this one I can't find.
    Where do you see 13:00 not 13:30. I'll correct it right away.

  11. Gainesville has the US 5oz silver on Preorder, I just signed up for all 5

  12. I think he's referring to your 1:00EST comment.

    Up 2 cents in 5 minutes after 1....

  13. Do they prime this thing up again before they attack, or do the buyers step back in with conviction? Very interesting period ahead...

  14. Those Pre-order 5oz coins look nice. ..I normally stick with ordering whatever I can get for the lowest price over spot. Isn't it the metal that matters most and not the collectibility element of the metal? Or am I off base on my assumption?? I do have to say though ..I have been getting the American Buffalo silver rounds but last week I ordered a few of the Liberty/Eagle coins and I did love the feel and look of the Liberty coins better. Makes me rethink my getting the Buffalos. ..Any thoughts on which is best or is it pure preference?

  15. Jack: Got it. What I trying to say is if the EE hasn't attacked by 1:00, then they probably won't attack at all. We've got 12 minutes to go and no sign of them yet. I'd expect some light profit taking into the close and then a slow grind higher until 4:15. If all goes well, we should get a nice pop on the open Sunday evening.

  16. Right...These coins are selling on ebay now for over $300 That is 60bux an ounce! If you preorder you dont have to buy if the price is too high. I was hoping to get them for 30-35 then dump them on ebay before Christmas. Now I think that was wishful thinkin

  17. RightIsRight; I have noticed that, all things being equal, people tend to prefer the Silver Eagles over the Buffaloes. They even command a small premium. But I am of the idea that in a SHTF scenario, silver is silver.

  18. Anybody interested in a desktop app for kitco gold and silver quotes that works on windows 7? I was annoyed that their kcast program didn't work on 7 so I whipped up a quick & dirty to do it myself. If anyone's interested I'll make it freely available.

  19. @flaunt - your desktop app sounds interesting... would you like someone to test it? :)

  20. Turd I was out the whole day - and now back and voila da Turd projections once more as predicted. Gold over 1400 and just slightly below 1410 and silver hit 29.3.

    Truely astonishing, as this was just one projection among many already.

    Let me guess my friend - d'Artagnan, besides those extraordinairy fighting/trading abilities must have additional extraordinairy abilities ... Milady melting away in d'Artagnans arms and btw revealing this and that secret, line of defense ... boy you are a Turd, truly astonishing. And not because of that hat :)

  21. Is there a way to send you an email - as i generally and since years don't use (= refuse to use) credit cards!

  22. Here's a perfect example of what I was talking about yesterday... Fluffers at Goldman Sachs says gold "could" go to 1750 next year, top in 2012, and that it's not a long term investment. Meanwhile here we have someone who actually has been on top of the market all along, Ben Davies calling for 1600-1800 THIS YEAR:

  23. btw Turd, good calls this day, and week. Congrats.

  24. +1410. You get the rocket science gold blog award of the week, Mr. Ferguson. You are ON IT!

  25. Sorry, please replace exclamation mark with a questions mark.

  26. Yahoo is showing a close of $1408 and $29.27. Nice!

  27. I have - after NY close - 1415.45 for gold!
    Silver just 29.34

    Long time I have seen an after market spike in Gold!

  28. Still got an hour to go on the metals exchanges. I was following SLV today and someone sold a heavy right at the close. My guess is it's just idiotic traders looking for a quick buck rather than riding the trend. Toward the close someone really wanted in on the Jan 22 35 calls and ran them up hard. Maybe Turd's call for the algos to kick in is happening now.

  29. I don,t really believe any of the commentators on future Gold and Silver prices.The first thing we have to try and get our heads around is that this is not just a result of an above ground silver shortage of precious and industrial metals,manipulation by certain mega rich interests and it is certainly not a bubble,this is the start of a brave new world we are seeing.More and more of the elites are paying their employee,s in paper fiat and puchasing Gold and Silver to safeguard their wealth.The Gold and Silver price is not increasing,everything else is collapsing.We are still climbing the wall of worry and have not yet entered the mania and frenzy stages of this cycle.The long term trend is to infinity.Nice charts Turd,hope you have a spare crystal ball for when your current one blows up with the price increases.Wondered what you kept in that hat mate.

  30. I suspect that someone/something unwound a pretty sizable short position at the close. With the charts so undeniably bullish, can you blame them/it?
    That said, the first order of business for the EE on Sunday evening will be to claw back that gain so don't be surprised to see gold trade back to 1408-10 right at the Globex open.

  31. Did you ever think that when/if you became famous that people would be commonly referring to you as "Turd"?

  32. Brother are fast closing in on the century mark in the not too distant future, it will be in the thousands...that's just how this internet thing works...plan accordingly.

  33. dd: You may be correct. Amazing, isn't it?
    Just today I started constructing a plan to use the generous "donations" to construct a new, more user-friendly site. I'll keep you posted.

  34. Dan: You made me think of the movie, "The Jerk". In the movie, Steve Martin has a dog named "Shithead". An even more likely name for me than "Turd".

  35. Speaking of which: Here is a re-enactment of the Turd's formal education process in trading precious metals: