Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Watching The Wicked Witch

First up, for anyone new to Turd's World, here's a visual of today's pre-market planning meeting at JPM:

We did successfully paint another wonderful FUBM formation on the intra-day chart. HAHAHAHAHA!
Now, Blythe must be watched very closely this afternoon as she is, most assuredly, getting desperate. Remember this? It was only two weeks ago today:
Do not be surprised if she attacks again on the Globex this afternoon. I say again because she's already done it once:
But, wait, here come our friends!
Here's an updated daily chart. If we can hang in there today, Blythe will have no choice but to intervene again tomorrow as silver is poised to spring a serious, short-covering bonanza of $1.00 or more. The fun thing is that we are on to her game. Six straight days makes it obvious to just about everyone. "So easy, even a Turd can do it." If little ole me can see this shit coming every day, you can bet your sweet batooty that our big $ BoS can see it, too. Blythe has truly painted herself into a corner. Does she:
1) short even more new paper silver contracts and incur even greater losses during the inevitable pop, or,
2) give up and not intervene tomorrow?
Thankfully, she loses either way. HAHAHAHAHA

Now, in fairness, the USDX isn't helping our cause. It definitely looks like it has broken upward and now the area around 81.40-60 must be watched very closely as a move through there could be quite harmful to the short-term prospects of the metals.
Lastly, lots of talk about copper these days. For anyone interested, here a daily copper chart. Pretty impressive. Looks a lot like silver, don't you say?
That's it for now. I'm going to be tied up a bit this afternoon into this evening so I probably won't post again until later tonight. For now, keep a close eye on Blythe and her monkeys until 4:30 EST. As of 2:30, I have a last of 29.30. So far, so good.
And please remember to "visit our sponsors" on your way out the door. The Turd needs to do some Xmas shopping for Mrs. Ferguson and the two little Turds. Thanks again for participating! TF

A quick 4:20 EST update:
Both copied for JSM. First, read this:
Trader Dan is The Man!
Next, for those of you that get all excited over TA, I present you with this:
The timing sure coincides with my thoughts on an imminent, upside breakout. We'll see.


  1. I'm a noob at the PM game. I can see it happening but how is it done in Silver. Are the flooding with paper silver to increase the (supply) and so decrease the cost?
    I have yet to find the book "Market Manipulation for Idiots"

  2. hrm, how old are the little turds? are they young'ens that justify one sponsor visit, or teenagers that need 9001 sponsor visits?

    Maybe i was just an expensive teenager...

  3. Looks like an interesting, unexpected twist on US monetary policy.

    Posted on Mish's site...


  4. can we expect takedown on light volume at week's end or nxt monday? though not traditional tues/wed takedown to hide shorts later in the week, BM struck the Friday after turkey day. I'm nervous about my longs in a holiday week, but don't want to miss the pop.

  5. The PTB couldn't have PMs breaking to all time highs on the same day the Fed broke a $TRILLION in Treasuries. Lord have mercy, and no end in sight!!!

  6. Looks like you got your 80.80. Strange action in all markets today, precious metals still looking strongest!

  7. well, there goes the 4:15 crash

  8. Nah, we're cool. Everyone's gone home for the day.
    Let's see what happens tonight.

  9. It seems to me (as an average guy with a basic understanding) that the harder the EE tries to pummel the PM prices and the longer those prices hold up, that this actually strengthens the long position as it establishes a very solid support for prices.

  10. d: Right on. Now, consider that this price manipulation has been going on for 25 years and that the above-ground silver:above-ground gold ratio may be something in the neighborhood of 1:1 and you get a feel for what the EE is up against.

  11. I sense a firm and bold move coming in silver.

  12. Soon, the announcement of a bailout of the US cities north of a trillion bucks should add at least 20 bucks to silver, IMO.


  13. Interesting news:

  14. Absolutely amazing how the graphs for G & S are so identical today.Not much movement up,but how much is it costing the EE keeping em where they are.The next move up,s gonna be big.

  15. I sense that the key world to the precious metals bull is CHINA.
    And it will be so to the end.

  16. Blythe....as hard as you try....you will never become Carolina.....


  17. Hey Turd, Keep up the good work here. I have been a reader since almost day one from ZH. I have been a physical buyer since before the 2008 crash in which I cashed everything out ROTH, 401K, SEP IRA etc (paid penalty etc), and started buying physical every since.

    My question comes from Harvey's interview that you post a short time ago when he made the comment about the 100 to 1 ratio in paper contracts vs physical. Could you or someone explain what that means in actual dollor terms ? I learn better with the K.I.S.S explaination. My ADD will always win.

  18. I guess he means that a 100 paper contract owners own the same lump of gold.
    Its like a situation were a hundred people have paper contracts showing they bought a house ,but the same one house was sold to all of them.
    So we have one "ounce" or one house and a 100 buyers.

  19. Thanks George,

    What does that mean for the phyiscal price then?

    $29.32 x 100 = $2,932 spot price physical silver?

    Am I reading this wrong or am I un-educated in this matter?

  20. For years they have never had to produce the Gold,just brought em off with cash,different now,100-1 don,t go baby...........yeah

  21. I can see trouble ahead,moonlight,music,romance,lets buy the SILVER and dance .............. Lets get Physical,Physical oh yeah,baby,baby..........

    Stay Cool,buy Silver,take down a bank,its your Patriotic duty,baby .........oh yeah !!!

  22. Northern Border I guess 29.30 x 100 = 2930 is the price of silver for the seller,the price the seller gets from the total of sum paid by the buyers...just as if you sold the same house to a 100 buyers for 29.3 $ to each one,the price of purchase for them would be 29.3 but the price of sale by you would actually be 29.3x100 buyers =2930 the price you got,that is the ..secret..sale price.
    Excuse my english though as I am not a native english speaker.

  23. George,

    That still doesnt give me a "real" value of the physical that I own. I understand how leverage works when your the seller. I understand how a buyer in the leveraged 100 x 1 works as well.

    What I am trying to figure out it, take away all the paper and what is the value of the 1 oz American Eagle on my desk worth?

  24. It seems to me that the students might be forgetting who the teacher is. If I were this particular teacher, I would let the students think they'd figured me out and when they were sure they had, boom! Remember, the other terrorists learned lots of bodies moved into the area after the primary explosion. Result, a secondary explosion. Lots more bodies that way. These chickens haven't gotten fat by letting the peasants pluck them. Be careful with what you've learned.

  25. Northern Border: today, tomorrow, next week, next month spot plus .50 cents...a year from now????? probably the same, but who cares, we won't be exchanging silver for dollars and why would we when we're trying to get out of dollars...

  26. Northern- Just my 2 cents: Ratio of gold to silver in nature is 17 to 1, and this pretty well mirrors the historical ratios of gold and silver when used as currency. If you believe gold is priced correctly today (and I do not, it has been artificially manipulated just like silver) that would put the actual value of your Eagle at just over 81$. And that's just for starters...

  27. I can't see any bailouts for the states and cities happening. The American People are against it. I am against it. We are tired of new fees, taxes and moochers. It is time to bite the bullet.

  28. If you have infinite money to print you can do anything. I have a great laser printer, I could buy some specialty paper and pay all my bills. When I do it its counterfeiting. If the Fed does it it QE whatever and economic policy.

  29. Tapped out for this month, but come my next paycheck I will be out there doing my part to buy up physical silver and squeeze the shorting establishment to let a true price emerge.

  30. My local dealer in Sydney is pretty much out of everything, no 5kg, no 15kg. All they had left were 5 pamp 1kg and a few overpriced coins. Waiting time is 4-6 weeks.

    I asked if there was a silver supply problem, to which they responded "No, it's our fault really, we can't get them cast fast enough.". Apparently by the time they order, then manufacture a batch they have fully allocated it and are sizing up the next order before it even arrives.

    Initially they were surprised by how much Diwali day knocked out their reserves, then local demand never let up.

  31. @fourth

    What's the tax situation on gold and silver in Australia?

  32. @Nic

    No appreciation tax either? That'd be great.

  33. Correct, however, that might not be as god as you think. If you buy a house, then later sell at a profit you pay capital gains tax, generally 30%.

    Gold\silver\platinum is given special 'money' status here, so it isn't covered by sales taxes.

    If you are paid more than 63k aud then the income taxes are actually greater than 30%. So I believe (unconfirmed) that PM increases would be classed in the same way that FX\interest gains are, as personal income.

    If you have enough to bother, you could move the cash in to a company \ trust then buy the gold\silver there. That would enclose the taxation scope to company taxes only, hence 30% maximum again. HOWEVER, as a company you can probably imagine a lot of expenses, like buying gold oversea's, an office, computers, internet connections, etc, etc. So there are some advantages.

    I guess the lowest PM taxes are paid by people who just move their gold to another country, then resettle.

    I've love to be corrected on any of the above(to improve my knowledge).

    Anyone just see PM's and the AUD bump upwards?

  34. Capital gains tax applies in Australia on the sale of any asset, with some exemptions (none of which are relevant for gold and silver). CGT rate is equal to personal income tax rate, but discounted by 50% if the asset was owned for >1 year.

  35. George,

    Tu eres latino cierto?

  36. Heat...no,no soy Latino.
    I guess you liked the video my friend.
    I see that blythe pretends to be carolina again...silver 29.20..

  37. Everything set for another raid.

  38. The Wicked Witch might have a new toy! :D