Friday, December 17, 2010

Worth Watching

Just thought I'd give you a quick note of some levels worth watching today.

We were looking pretty good overnight in the metals but, for the third day in a row, Blythe has decided to administer a beating in the early morning. Today's gold beatdown began promptly at 9:35 EST with gold at $1375.40. By 9:46, it was 1367.20. Silver, of course, same deal. At 9:35 it reached 29.14 and by 9:56 it was 28.84. Silver's the one that's got to be pissing Blythe off, however, as it seemingly does not want to buckle under her constant pressure.

For this morning, lets watch for clues as to how we might end out the week. The Feb11 gold needs to hold 1365 or so and then close back above the 1370 mark. Last week's close was 1385 so, obviously, its going to take a lot of work to have an UP week. In silver, $28.80 has acted as a barrier to Blythe's evil intent. Let's hope that level hangs in there this morning, too. Silver closed last Friday at 28.61 so it is looking to have an UP week. Don't think for a minute that Blythe isn't aware of this so expect some relentless pressure as we go through the morning. If the monkey brigade are unable to collapse silver, a rally simply to 29.28 will gives us a new post-1980 weekly high close. After all the raids and pain of this week, to still have a new post-1980 weekly high would be huge. Therefore, be on your guard and watch 28.80 very closely.

Lastly, bonds are showing some strength today. If they can hold their ground and build from here, the "anchor" shows that the worst may be over, at least for the next few weeks. Rallying bonds may ease some of the recent pressure on the PMs, too.

More later.


  1. Yeah it's been painful watching the relentless smackdowns since Monday. The metals are coiled and ready to spring it'll only take a small trigger to send them straight up and there are just so many triggers bubbling in the background that I suspect we shouldn't have to wait too long.

  2. Yeah I have been watching silver in real time all morning. She is having trouble keeping it down but its obvious she is trying. It looks like she is trying to give a pissed off feral cat a bath.

  3. Crap!!! And there goes the big smack down!!! Geez, its like you can't win with that kind or manipulation.

  4. eventually the bath will be over

  5. Can anyone help me with PM options expiry this month... is it today (maybe the raids will finally end)?

  6. Merry Christmas, Turd.

    Donation of 1oz silver coming your way, priced at the June 30, 2011, post-COMEX default spot value.

  7. The mid to long term trend is up, there is no doubt about it. Sit back and by Monday, this will be behind us. Supply shortages are real. I placed a significant order for 100oz bars from Eric Sprott's company ( on Nov 22 & 23 and I was just advised yesterday that they had finally received the bullion and would be shipping it out to me.

  8. Co_Dan: Good man. A reminder to everyone to Feed the Turd.

  9. Thanks for the reminder, dd. Please keep reminding folks to visit our google "sponsors" too.
    G&S hanging tough. 100 minutes to go! Lets get em!

  10. Went to a local dealer here in Fort Worth yesterday and bought the last buffalo's they had and a nice old 10oz Engelhard bar. The guys I talked to said there is definitely a shortage of physical.

  11. Thanks Dave... Harvey talked about gold option expiry (today) in his post last night (maybe not the comex)... seems there's always a reason to beat PM prices down.

    Wish I'd left some powder dry (for the dips), but pretty much all in at this point, keeping a firm grip on a strong branch, while the Wicked Witch shakes the tree.

  12. Finally fed the Turd. Thanks for all you do here TF, more coming as I am able.

  13. There's been remarkably little substantive discussion re: yesterday's CFTC meeting. I was not able to watch firsthad yesterday, but I just got finished watching the archived webcast. Position limits discussion starts at around 2:35 out of 4 hour webcast.

    A number of things struck me:

    1. The CFTC has "broad leeway" to go past "deadline" under the law, if they see fit. There is plenty of precedent for this according to the lawyers.

    2. CFTC has absolute authority to ask for significant amounts of additional information to sort out the true situation ie to get information re: swaps to sort out the information now available in public COT reports.

    3. Chilton in particular made a number of "clarifications" re: the CFTCs ability to effectively put larger traders OUTSIDE of current recommendations re: size of position on a "heightened level of oversight" or a "watch list"

  14. The meeting was abruptly dismissed; This has been largely interpreted as not having the votes to go through with sending the proposal to a public comment period.

    As with everything else, I would encourage you to listen for yourself.

    That being said, I don't think we should be surprised that there will be more discussion before we get a "conclusion". It is a little simplistic to expect that such a huge problem will be dealt with at a single meeting, especially given the powerful forces allied against significant change.

    What I think is clear though is that the CFTC undertands the problem; they are looking to implement a careful scheme for all commodities, and that is taking time.

    I further think however, that they MUST be reminded by the public that the silver market is the EXTREME scenario and that they should focus on fixing this "crime in progress" as a PRIORITY.

    JP Morgan MUST understand they are BEING WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. We already have the press reporting that they are "materially decreasing" their position. We know from the COTs they are decreasing their short position slowly.

    The upshot is there is NOTHING to suggest silver will not continue its inexorable march upward to its TRUE VALUE. Whether or not regulations ever catch up with JP Morgan, and they probably will in time, the physical shortageis something they CANNOT overcome.

    Just my opinion... still waiting to hear Ted Butler's formal take, although informally he stated that everything was good for silver.

  15. I have covered all shorts and a bunch of my hedges (also shorts) and hence now net long again.
    That doesn't mean that there's a guarantee that we couldn't go lower again.
    Just that bottom picking is tricky - and Hammy prefers scaling in.

    HUIs low 551 - instead of expected 545
    Gold 1364 instead of 135x
    Silver 28.6x instead of 28.
    EURUSD thanks to that Asia/Europe rally 1.5 figures higher then expected.
    Indexes as usual don't listen to my calls.

    Reason why we missed my targets? What about this theory: BoS arranged a short cover rally in Asia/Europe session exchanging zillions of worthless dollars against some Euros - and at the same time providing a (higher) floor for PMs - and this way having nicely outwitted our wicked white witch Blythe?
    Boy these guys are smart!

    Next week a new game - guess for this week Blythe is done.

  16. Excellent Post,

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    Scott J

  17. Nice work, hammy. You had a great week!
    Let's watch that March11 silver for the next hour. If the BoS decides to jam it up Blythe's you-know-what, they only need to get it to 29.28.

  18. I legged in on the lows of yesterday and today. Looking for the rally to continue on Monday, as today will be the third positive close consecutively since Wednesday. And another positive weekly close, as well as all time high like Turd pointed out.

    Kitco has a pretty cool data chart that logs the daily close, and gives you the highs, lows, and averages for each month. Kinda cool to monitor Silver's amazing progress there.

    Go to the yearly silver chart section, select the year, and click the charts and data button.

  19. "Supply shortages are real. I placed a significant order for 100oz bars from Eric Sprott's company .."

    Same here. I have 100 each 1 oz Ag rounds that were supposed to be delivered this week. Called them. It's going to take another two weeks. Huge order volume. The mint cannot keep up.

  20. Silver is really cooking into the close! Can we get 14 more cents in the final five minutes??

  21. Heard rumour that one of the Mints is going to stop supplying dealers that don't shift more than a certain weight of silver per month from January.

    Can anyone verify?

    Shortage of physical? It's certainly getting tighter.

  22. Holy Crap! Check out this pic I dug up. Its the witch and wynter in the New York times in the same article. Looks like they were teammates before. Damn interesting, oh, and your welcome ;)