Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Bonds and Expatriation

No, Barry Bonds is not moving to Costa Rica. For all I know, that roid-head already lives there. At any rate, the purpose of this post is to address two items prominently mentioned in the comments today.

First up, the remarkable sell-off in the bond market and its possible implications. Recall this illustration that Santa first created about 10 years ago and has since republished several times:
Note that the only pillar not "fulfilled" is pillar #5. Are we arriving at that moment? Perhaps as it is surely not a question of if, it is a matter of when.

If you haven't yet, now take a moment to read Dan Norcini's comments today on the technical state of the bond market:

OK, this got me thinking a bit. Recall that we have been in a bull market in US bonds for almost 30 years. The breaking of that bull is what Santa is referring to in pillar #5. I hadn't seen a long bond historical chart for a while so I emailed Dan and asked him for one.  He graciously replied and here is what he sent me:
Any way you slice it, once the US long bond moves below 113, it is all over. Goodbye, 30-year bull market. Hello, United States fiscal disaster. Again, not if, when.

The followup question and discussion was then, naturally, expatriation. Who, in their right mind, doesn't at least consider this possibility when the writing is clearly "on the wall", so to speak? My allegiance is to this great country and to the millions who have died trying to create and protect it. I will stay on and do my level best to fix things. However you, my dear reader, are certainly free to push on toward the next, great frontier. To that end, below is a link to the definitive expatriation guide "Tyler" posted at ZH in the spring of last year. My advice to you is to save it. Maybe even print it off and keep a hard copy or two somewhere. Well-written and concise, I believe you'll find it quite interesting.

The metals performed beautifully today. They valiantly shook of Blythe's attack this morning. She's now tried twice to raid them on the Globex post the 2:15 Fed statement. We bounced right back from the first attempt at 2:15. I'd certainly expect this current effort to fail, too.

Again, another $16B in POMO awaits tomorrow and Thursday. Hopefully, we'll build on this early week momentum and blast higher. I'll try to check in again this evening.


  1. Thanks for the guide, looks like it will be a great read!

  2. People who flee the country are pussies. I also don't have the ability to, so I am somewhat biased in my declaration.

    Why would anyone NOT want to be around when the slobbering masses run to the stores for food and provisions. It will make black friday mobs look tame.

    It will be epic.

  3. Thanks for the link Turd, I just printed it out for some bedside reading.

  4. People who flee one country for another are of most brave and productive kind. They are the ones who have what it takes to get up, start moving and take action to improve their lives. They are the ones who refuse to blindly take it.

    I have lived in 3 countries so far and US is my temporary home. However, I am working on figuring out the next "greener" pasture.

    That Expat Guide is great. Read it a few months ago and took notes of some points. Highly recommend !!!

    P.S. The black friday stampedes are indeed entertaining (no sarcasm). However they are much better watched on 60" plazma from another continent or country than from across the parking lot.

  5. @fuck....the people who DIDN'T flee Nazi Germany are what? It's all perspective.

  6. This post is going to cause Blythe to break character, at least in part.

    Blythe understands that we are nearing the end of the great (sic) Keynesian experiment, as this blog is so aptly subtitled. Part of Blythe's job is to manage this transition such that the dollar falls in a semi-controlled fashion against true money, namely gold and silver. Blythe knows that this is a battle she will lose in the long run, but as Keynes himself said, "in the long run we're all dead." Alas, it pains me so that my life's work and sacrifices go unappreciated by the unwashed masses.

    Wounded as she may be, America remains the indispensable nation, the last great hope of mankind. In the wake of a dollar collapse, when the wealth of the nation has been decimated, there will ensue an epic struggle for control of her assets and political/financial systems. More than ever before, America will need Patriots committed to the rule of law to guide her back to a prosperous and free future. Blythe watched the nascent Russian democracy succumb to economic collapse and knows we are not immune from the same fate.

    Expatriation is not an option for the Patriot, at least not now. If the collapse happens and the U.S. goes the way of Russia, then leaving is justified. But at this point in time a Patriot's duty is to remain here and to attempt to rebuild.

    Blythe is still waiting for expressions of gratitude for the buying opportunities I am providing for physical gold and silver.



  7. Turd,

    This one's for you:


    Norm MacDonald was great, once upon a time.

  8. Is that post by Blythe for real?

  9. The "London source" speaks again.

    Pretty good track record so far:


  10. I say again...Holy Sneikys! In that Kingsworldnews article...“If these guys converted all of their spot to physical, there would be a massive default today. No one in the US understands that, the Asians are laughing at these guys. It’s a way to unload billions and billions of dollars into the market. Looking at the futures market gives you a totally false impression of what is going on, this is going to totally blow up. Remember if you are China, your primary goal is to get out of trillions of dollars, that means purchasing hard assets such as gold and silver.”

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  12. I am 29 years old. My first child will be here in 3 weeks. How then do I leave the country?

    Money, which I have very little of, is the biggest hurdle to leave the country. If I was older, then that would be a different story.

    Someone please give me a realistic way for average people (like me) to get out of the country.

    I read the guide awhile back, and laughed because I was already disqualified from the word go.

    "If you have substantial assets, the cost of either passport will be more than recouped from your
    first year of tax savings alone. For an individual, the St. Kitts-Nevis passport is $200,000, and
    Dominica is $75,000, plus legal and processing fees."

    So genius what is $75K x 3? More than I currently have in net worth.

    Comparing the US to Nazi Germany is relevant yes (in regards to the progression towards fascism), but with everyone trying to flee Germany and a fucking WORLD WAR there were many places that would take German refugees. Who the fuck is going to take American refugees? Canada?? Mexico?? Don't make me laugh.

    So knowing that leaving is out of the question, I will stay and watch what happens, hunker down and help rebuild.

    I will reiterate, if you are a US citizen and leave America to watch it burn from abroad you are a spineless PUSSY.

  13. From King World News:
    "The only way to fight it, and it can’t be done in the US, but it can over here in England (the Asians can), is to buy the foreign exchange transaction which is gold versus dollar, silver versus dollar. So essentially what you are doing is shorting the dollar versus gold, or shorting the dollar versus silver."

    Why can't you guys in the US trade spot PMs vs USD (or EUR, JPY, etc.)?

  14. @fuck...so you don't have the money to relocate. Ok. But don't refer to those who are aware of the danger ahead as anything lesser than you are. Most people are in your shoes and cannot leave, but those who can leave and do, I have nothing against them what so ever. Saying they are weak because they are fleeing harm to their family is SMART. Those of us who stay and fight because we CHOOSE to does not make us better in any way. We made the choice to stay. Believe me, I know what my family and children are about to go through....

    Now that the moment has passed...let's redirect that emotion to the proper targets.

  15. f - - -,
    If I am not mistaken, most of your forefathers arrived in the US to try to make a better life for themselves. How is leaving the US to go somewhere else any different? If other places offer the freedoms, opportunity and hope that the US now lacks, why are the departees PUSSIES? I would say they are visionaries.

  16. Joe asks: Is that post by Blythe for real?

    Now wouldn't it be great if JP Morgan and Ms. Masters had that level of compassion. Had they that level of compassion they would have considered the many that have been financially decimated and devastated by their actions in the PM markets...criminals and compassion...I doubt it.

  17. any chance we could dispense with the word "fuck" on this blog...certainly there must be more educated and intelligent ways to describe and discuss issues among gentlemen...

  18. Here is an interesting take on the expatriation problem:


  19. I sort of agree with tim re: "fuck".

    However I recognize at least a slight level of hypocrisy on my part seeing as the blog's author is named "turd."

  20. Turd,
    I believe this King World News article is, if true, monumental.
    We knew China was accumulating PMs. What puzzled me, though, was why they would be supporting the spot &/or futures prices, as it would mean they had to pay more for physical. The "contact out of London" tells us why: they are now measuring their wealth in terms of the market prices of PMs, not USD. So, they don't want the spot price of PMs to fall. The fx market is a good vehicle for them, as each XAUUSD or XAGUSD transaction is a contemporaneous long in XAU or XAG and a short in USD. It completely aligns with their views of where future value lies and where it will be lost.

    What do you think?

  21. I agree about the "f--k" word, but gotta love that Freedom that we still have.

  22. GG: ding! ding! You win the prize! I believe you have answered the question correctly.

  23. ben said: agree...I say how about we just abbreviate it like f'in...certainly we all have enough education in the English language to come up with more appropriate adjectives...aside from the fact that the word has a tendency to make us look vulgar...which none of us are...there is a time and place for everything..mostly this isn't the place...and the word "turd" really doesn't rise to the level of the "F" word...your choice...free country!

  24. Thanks Turd. I am adding. Trying to resist backing up the truck.

    BTW, nice work putting the USDX chart there. It would look better if it was currently 78.xx, though :) Oh well, our Chinese friends will help it get there, no doubt.

  25. Ain't no familiar w/ that fOREX XAUUSD thing so could anyone explain how it is traded? Is it an option, future or sth? Are they able to settle it in gold or silver at the end? Does it have an expiration date?

  26. I feel part of the problem is the short termism that exists so much in the modern world.When we discuss leaving a nation for whatever reason this says volumes for how powerless and insecure and without prospects the individual feels within that country.Transience of population via migration is of epidemic proportions last seen when Hitler went into Russia starting in 1942.People have lost the community spirit and feel that as long as they are alright the world is a good place and sod everyone else.China has succeeded against capitalism by fighting it with a $ a day capitalism and ultimately it has won.People can keep on running wherever they want but until people demand a better future from their leaders things will not improve.Buying Gold and Silver is one of the best things and most patriotic things you can do,the system is rotten to the core,it has to fall,once fallen it has to be replaced by something better for the State to continue.We have to revalue what a patriot is,is it carrying on doing nothing or is it to publicly say enough is enough,as more do it the Government has a problem,if millions do it they have to listen.If you care about your country you don,t leave you do your best to put it right.To say the best people leave is to write your country off.Whilst we may be bankrupt we as people still have values and are the light of the world,we need to discover the power of the mass voice and quickly.JPM,the Fed,etc, are all symptoms of a country where the people have not asked enough questions and never got enough answers.

  27. There will be few safe havens, some of the countries mentioned cannot either feed or energize themselves. When trade collapses, where are you going to get stuff that is not made there. Also, where in the world are all of the medicines produced, ahem Europe and America, are you going to trust Asian Pharma?

    Do not be deluded, that you would not be a mark for the native population for taxation, and or expropriation of your assets.

    Stay here and fight to fix what is wrong.

    The collapse of America will be breathtaking for the Asians as they watch it boomarang on them (no export markets), with a pissed off America with the only Blue water Navy and a fleet of strategic aircraft that can redirect anything it wishes through the threat of instant desruction.

    I am not a myopic American rah rah person, just looking at things with a clear eye.

  28. Rui,
    Look here, for a start:

  29. @f---

    Expat Brit here: I left to better climbs in the southern hemisphere in 2004 because I was reading people cleverer than me (and with provable track records), who all said what is happening now was inevitable.

    Leaving wasn't about being a 'pussy' as you put it, it was about giving myself and my family the best chance of survival in a world run by a sociopathic banking elite. The work I do is also struggling very badly for jobs in the UK now (along with unemployment across the board), a great many friends and ex-colleagues are hurting financially (and with the cold and expensive heating bills...)

    America's forebears and founders were in a similar situation, but in that case the sociopathic elite were royalty and aristocrats. My ancestors were turfed off their land in the highland clearances, much the same way people in the US are being thrown out of their houses.

    I see very little difference to the underlying principles between then and now - the the only option is to look after myself and my family the best I can because no other "f*cker" is going to do it for me. If that makes me a 'pussy' i'll wear the moniker proudly.

    PS. Turd, great work!

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  31. The difference between our founding fathers and us is that they rebelled against an old way...a tyranny...an unjust monarchy. We are from a country that is great still in many ways but was much much greater and founded on Liberty and Freedom. I want to fight for that freedom and do my best to see it come back again. So I choose to stay. it will not be fun or easy, but we need a core of people who have these values to be here to sustain the constitution against chaos. I would rather die than see America fall to socialism.

  32. wow Cris, thanks for that KWN link - a rather large piece of the puzzle, it's all becoming so clear, and unsettling. . .

    with regards un-settle-ing, ie expatriation, I'll just add my experiences - I left the US at 20, lived abroad for about 15 years, mainly UK, some euro-nations as well. . . I realise that being single sans family ties made it all easier, but I don't regret any of my time spent away.

    I have contacts in a few countries now that I will probably make good use of in the coming months. . . moving is easier when you have folk already in place, it's good to have friends.

    I understand & support those who choose, for whatever reason, to remain in their birth-nation, but to realise there ARE options is important. . . from my perspective, nations have fluid "boundaries" - they shift with wars, over time, and we know those who pull the strings have no loyalty to a "nation" - it's my choice to put chosen "family" & friends before allegiance to a "country".

    and just to weigh in on the f-topic - I'm not so bothered about the "f-bomb" as an adjective, but I'd rather not see this commentary thread degenerate into the typical sexualised trollage seen elsewhere. . . not everyone here is a "gentleMAN" *cough* & one of the main reasons I enjoy reading the posts here, apart from a great learning curve, is the level of debate is respectful, information is shared & commented on. . .

    genuinely hope that continues, thanks all.

  33. Bob said,

    "Also, where in the world are all of the medicines produced, ahem Europe and America, are you going to trust Asian Pharma?""

    Bod having lived in Thailand and Asia I can tell you that they make super good meds. I also live in S. America. I speak fluent Spanish. The med and medical care is wonderful and cheap as is Asia.

    And no dirty lawyers who distort the system and rob the people. Just MHO.


  34. Great post Turd. Thank you for your insight into the bond market.

  35. To Heat, good luck with that when global trade breaks down, my comment is WTSHTF. You will see counterfeit meds, I guarantee it, we already are struggling with it here.

    Unfortunately, I am only fluent in German, and I agree on the lawyers.

  36. TF, I'd like to hear your opinion on this. Assuming that the US stock market collapses, do you think there will be a similar reaction in the commodities markets as well? And including the PMs market, at least as a severe knee jerk reaction? Judging by ZH's Dow Zero theory and bullishness on PMs, one would assume not. But I can't help seeing a positive (rather than inverse) correlation between the stock market and PM prices as of late, although this was not necessarily the case in the past. Everything seems so linked these days through HFT. Perhaps the answer lies in the RELATIVE ups and downs?

  37. If global trade breaks down, just about everywhere else is going to be better off than the US. It's one of those times you don't want to be in the centre.

    As to the costs of expatriating - the $$$ methods are for those that have them, and primarily save time. Certainly not the only method.

    At the very least, pick a likely location, take a trip overseas and find out.

    If you want a 'western' nation, Australia and New Zealand could well be some of the best bets. Space, resources, energy, government systems that actually work.

    Germany could also be a good place to be this time around. Current situation is rather working to their advantage.

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  39. F-man doesn't need $$ to relocate abroad. He just needs to sign on the dotted line. Join the Army, see the world. Europe, the Far East, Middle East beckon. Of course, that's assuming F-man is a true patriot and willing to fight for his country ... not a spineless pussy he so despises. Join the Army, F-man! Be all you can be!! The attitude adjustment will do you good.