Early Monday

Fabulous start to the week in the PMs.
Overnight, gold, as predicted, did settle back to the Friday, Comex-close level. Feb11 gold reached a low of 1409.80. It is now 1415.80. March11 silver, however, only hit 29.48 and it is currently 29.84. That silver is now trading through and clear the 11/9 high of 29.40 is extremely exciting. From their lows of 11/16, gold is up 6.39% and silver is up an astonishing 23.54%.

For clarity and context, let's take a look at the other three "commodities" we follow:

The Jan11 soybeans will resume trading in Chicago at 10:30 EST. They had an overnight close of 1301. The corrective low of 11/17 was $11.75/bushel. This means our rally from those lows is 10.72%.

The March 11 wheat stands this morning at $7.89 with an 11/17 low of 6.56 for a gain of 20.27%!

The Jan 11 crude is at 89.20 and its low of $80.28 was on 11/17. A gain off the lows of 11.11%.
I think crude is a very important signal going forward so lets take a moment and look at a weekly chart:

If you look closely, you'll see that crude is at a very important moment in time. Last Friday, it made a weekly high above the weekly highs of last January. The $93 level from last May is now clearly in sight. If/when it bests that level, what's next? Your guess is as good as mine but, if it can close the gap between 95 and 97, I'd sure say it looks like $110 is in the cards, at a minimum. Why is this important:
1) Gold and silver will certainly tag along on the upside
2) Crude above $100 stifles any and all signs of economic improvement/growth worldwide
3) No growth only guarantees QE3, QE4, QE5...
So, let's watch crude and see how much higher it goes. Oh...and don't give me that crap about "crude can't go higher because of slow global economies". That's yesterday's nonsense. Crude is going higher and will continue higher because it is, primarily, a dollar-denominated asset. Period. End of story. Just like wheat, soyas, cotton, etc.

Lastly, you must always be vigilant on days like this. We've made new highs on both PMs so, if successfully attacked by the EE, they are both subject to the dreaded "outside reversal day". Again and in short, the ORD is a technical warning where you trade above yesterday's highs but close below yesterday's low. The low on Friday in gold was 1385.30, so it would take some work but never underestimate Blythe and Her Monkeys. She may not try it today as 1385 may be too far away but she'll definitely try her tricks again someday soon. Of that you can be certain.

More later. TF

NOON EDT UPDATE

We are rolling! Feb11 gold is 1420 and March11 silver is 30.03. Great stuff but lets not get too excited until after the Death Star closes at 1:30. Gold in particular could benefit from a few more dollars. Again, the intra-day alltime high was on 11/9 at 1426 even. I'd like to see us best that level and, if possible, close above it. We'll see...