Wednesday, December 8, 2010


There are days like today, that follow days like yesterday, where The Turd needs a little help with his "game face". Below, I present to you the official theme song of TF Metals Report. I like this version best in that its nothing fancy. Its simply music and lyrics.  TF


  1. Feel the spirit rising already. Just wish I had more cash to "influence" the market.

  2. I wish I could sense a rising spirit. My fear is that Blythe may wish to make a silver close lower than yesterday's, to assert her manufactured correction.

  3. The Hui is making new lows ... don't complain when gold and silver go lower too.

    In fact it is a welcome trading opportunity.
    For those not long but trend "biased".

    Long live Blythe.

  4. I'm sitting tight on my miner positions and my physical positions. But it surrre is difficult watching the miners crash. ....Actually I'm desperately wishing I had more $ to buy buy buy right now on these miner dips. "/

  5. Closed AGQ at $138.59. Took the profit (20%). Looking for a lower reentry.

  6. This is just a joke. Sheesh...tough to watch this nonsense.

    If you recall from two weeks ago, $28-28.20 was pretty strong resistance in silver. Therefore, we should expect that same level to act as support today. Should. With the EE firmly in charge, wtfk.
    If $28 gives way, we should again find a ton of support near 27.50-60.

    Hang in there, everybody. This sure does suck.

  7. this is just beautiful......blythe is giving us a bargain on discount silver and gold.......hehehhehehe......turd you KNEW they would pull enjoy the sale...this is the most powerful ponzi EVER

  8. In gold, "mission accomplished" for Blythe as she has, once again, let everyone know who is really in charge.
    Yesterday at this time, gold was trading at 1430 or so. Today its 1375. That's almost 4%!
    Once she got it through 1385, she was able to set off some stops and we quickly sunk to 1375. If it keeps going, I'd expect the BoS to show up in force between 1365-70.
    Remember, Santa has warned us all often to expect greater and greater volatility. This, too, shall pass. Keep the faith and get ready to buy.

  9. Yes, kliguy, I knew. The post from late Sunday looks rather prophetic. It sure hurts to watch, though.

  10. On BullionVault, physical silver price (ozt) is $29.24 bid. Futures are $28.39? WTF?

  11. I wish JPM would just tell us what price was acceptable to them and spare us all the nail-biting.

  12. This, too, sums things up pretty well. From Eric De Groot:

    Posted: Dec 07 2010 By: Eric De Groot Post Edited: December 7, 2010 at 9:09 pm
    Filed under: Jim's Mailbox
    Dear Jim,
    We are taught very earily in life that there are two sides of everything. The battle between good and evil, cartels versus free markets, bulls and bears etc. Unfortuantely, embracing this life lesson will pick the pockets of many men and women in the markets. There is only one side to the markets, that is, the right side. No amount of chart painting will reverse the right side. The chart painters use their operations to reposition to the right side under the cover of public panic because they know this lesson well.
    As you have said, three taps and out represents a reasonable supply and demand cycle for many markets. Three taps and out of the upper trading channel, and the gloves come off in gold.
    CIGA Eric

  13. Hey sumo...I've been trading AGQ also...taking profits as it has stair stepped it's way up...but yesterday...ouch! I had bought some near the opening thinking another down then up Mr Bill would say..."Oooooh Nooo!". I had a stop in...yup, it kicked off JUST as the spot hit $28.48...fuck me! Well, at least they just got some of their own money back.

    So TF...what's in store for today? When is it safe to get back in the water? I've still got my PHYS and PSLV.

  14. If I was a BoS, I would step back and let the EE pile on its shorts, wait for the EE to go too far, then start squeezing again.

  15. Watch that 20DMA. We'll get close to touching that on the Silver side of the house. That's my target at least. I'm guessing $27.70 - $27.80 then bounce...worst case. Cash in hand, bullion at the dealer. :D

  16. Sumo & Joe: We're getting close. I'd pick a spot that correlates to gold 1370 and silver 28 and see if you get filled.

  17. Turd-would you call yourself a gold and silver trader or someone who buys and holds? From following you on ZH, I always thought you were a buy and hold guy. I bought my first phys oz of gold at $700 and have been buying the metals ever since. I have never sold one ounce of either gold or silver so dips like this don't bother me. The only thing that bothers me is when speculators create volatility by jumping ship, but at the same time, it really does create buying opportunities for me. Its like Auburn turning the ball over up 28-14. It maybe a small win for South Carolina, but in the end Auburn pounded them. You wouldn't change your bet and start taking Carolina +6 if you could.

  18. I get the whole Star Wars analogies but have never been a huge fan (yeah.. I know.. there aren't many of us) so.... I will put it in my own terms. I kind of feel like we all are the collective Cinderella and are being constantly beat and abused and made to do without and to scratch for every crumb we get whilest the evil and wicked step mother and her family are living large and taking all the spoils at our expense.

    I just hope our Prince Charming shows up soon and puts these people in their rightful places.

  19. I posted earlier today that there is a VERY important meeting tomorrow at the CFTC. I think the post may have been deleted, so I will say it again.

    Bart Chilton stated publicly, quite emphatically, at the last meeting that there should be no further delay in setting appropriate position limits in silver trading. Of course, Chilton's statement is bolstered by the fact that it is now LAW that this be accomplished by January.

    Other commentators have suggested that all positions should be limited to the equivalent of 1% of world annual production. In fact, this is basically the case in every commodity except one. Wait for it... silver.

    Setting position limits, as now required by LAW, would be a "silver bullet", if you will, to the type of manipulative trading we have unfortunately grown accustomed to. In fact, it is ironic to understand that the Hunt brothers got slapped ferociously for having a LONG manipulative position in excess of 10-15%, whereas the government's own data show a manipulative short position in place in silver of at least 25%.

    I would pay close attention to tomorrow's meeting. It streams live at the CFTC website. The rubber meets the road. Let's see if there really is a rule of law. If there isn't, and Bart is all talk/no action, at least we will know to act accordingly.

  20. chill people...

    rule #1 in PM: don't overtrade. volatility will kick your ass.

    rule #2: PM bull markets have violent 30 dollar down days. Can't count how many times I've seen this during the bull. In a few weeks this will all be obliterated, we'll be on to new highs.

    Turd--Gary was spot on--called this as an intermediate correction.

  21. My newbie guess is that EE wants to monkey-hammer it today. I'm guessing $27.50, a bit below Ben's target.

  22. Just did a little holiday shopping. Not quite backing the truck up, but a few silver rounds added to the kitty. Note: if you buy at APMEX you can use their $5 coupon code:

    Not necessarily an endorsement of APMEX, but they did send me some popcorn. :)

  23. And yet the physical (local prices) aren't much lower than on Monday. Is this the beginning of the expected disconnect?

  24. Silver bounced off $28.01. Nice call Turd.

  25. Kyle: I am primarily a "buy and hold PM guy". No doubt about it. I do, however, maintain an options account at Lind Waldock. Trading there makes me "Vegie (Vegas) money", if you get my drift. To avoid disasters like yesterday and today, I try very hard to stay out of front-month options. Currently I own calls on Feb11 gold and March11 silver. I also own calls on March11 wheat.

    Right: Yes, the Star Wars thing can get tired. If you've ever been to DisneyLand, however, you'll quickly notice that Sleeping Beauty is much hotter than Cinderella. Smokin.

    Cris: You hit it out of the park. MOst don't know this: "Setting position limits, as now required by LAW". The law, for pete's sake! By obfuscating their responsibility, the CFTC shall become an unindicted, co-conspirator as they are allowing the EE TO BREAK THE LAW!

    Vike: I hear ya. Nice call. Let's just hope it's short.

    Dan: Turd loves those holiday popcorn tins, too, especially the caramel corn.

  26. Cris: That advice from Mr Butler is awesome. Thank you for posting it. I'd ask everyone on this blog to take :30 and read it.
    Again, keep in mind the cycle the EE is caught up in. They need lower prices to survive their squeeze but lower prices only create more, grassroots demand as buyers see silver "on sale".

    We will win. Of that you can be certain.

  27. After hitting a high of 28.7(SLV which trades about .6 lower than silver spot price) on Nov 10th, we bottomed out right around the $25 area after 6 trading days. And it only took about 8 trading days for the uptrend to resume. Now I know there is no exact correlation to what's happened in the past, but I do believe from the charts we can watch the fundos change, and the upward trend to become stronger.

    So I think this will be important. If we bottom out quicker than 6 days, and restart the upward trend quicker than 8. Then it should start to prove that the EE is losing it's ability to suppress the price downward for any significant amount of time. Our Asian friends obviously are helping to keep the buying pressure on after our trading hours are through.

    So in closing, Turd since obviously for the most part, the technicals are completely out the window. I believe that maybe we just need to tweak how we look at these charts, and view them from a different perspective to spot similarities. We just might be able to watch the EE's greasy little paws lose their grip on our precious silver :)

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  29. I'm exhausted mentally. This bitch is starting to wear me out!

  30. Turd,
    The quote from Mr. Butler seems to have been deleted, so I will post again:

    "If there is one key point I would try to impress on you about this silver transition, it is the often-repeated lesson from my gifted silver mentor Izzy. That lesson was the extreme pricing that comes with an actual shortage of an item in demand. Like most important lessons learned well, Izzy’s came from actually experiencing profound shortages of basic items in his native Romania during the Nazi occupation. The lesson was that price knows no bounds in an extreme shortage. This is something, fortunately, that most of us have not experienced, so it is hard to fully comprehend. Because of my great respect for him and his repeated lectures on the subject, I believe I came to as close an understanding of the shortage pricing concept as is possible without replicating the actual deprivation caused by war. I can tell you that when you contemplate deeply what the impact can be on silver in a genuine shortage, your thought process begins to short-circuit because the price possibilities become too extreme.

    In turn, over the years, I have often attempted to replicate Izzy’s lesson with articles describing shortage pricing and availability because of hurricanes and gas shortages and other modern day examples. The one thing we always agreed on was that the downward price manipulation must result in a shortage at some point. Of course, while we never knew exactly when the silver shortage would arrive, we did know it would be very quick to intensify once it appeared. And that it would shock the world. I may be jumping the gun a bit, but the signs of a silver shortage appear clear to me. The large price gains and the clear evidence of relentless demand and delays in silver shipments are a strong signal. Plus, you know you shouldn’t expect an engraved notice in the mail announcing the official start of the silver shortage. This is one of those things you need to jump the gun on a bit so as not to miss it.

    It’s hard to predict the very short-term price direction of anything in normal times. That becomes even harder in extraordinary times. Therefore, I would suggest you try to refrain from short-term prognostications on the price of silver. Instead, try to imagine the unprecedented circumstance of the world coming to grips with a genuine physical shortage of an item that heretofore had never been in a shortage in history. Try to imagine and position yourself for such an unusual circumstance, as I can assure you that those prepared, mentally and financially, will fare better than those who don’t see it."

  31. T, hang on to your hat. Looks like a nice bounce, but hasnt made up its mind just yet. What a fun ride indeed!

  32. Turd: LOL. Mrs. Ferguson of course out-smokes them all. Keep the home fires burnin. :]

    Question: I know you are otherwise pre-occupied with the day's happenings right now but would you consider using your blog here to school the newbies in some basic info to learn how to trade in options. I realize that is alot to ask but I'm only talking maybe post some links to your favorite sites where we can get some good information. I am smart enough to know that I'm not smart enough to try any of those sorts of trades until I know more than I know now. But I want to learn and am not sure where the best places on the web would be to learn from. Lots of money to be made for those who know the tricks of the trade ....and lots of money to be lost for those who don't know what they are doing. Interested in starting at the ground floor and learning the ropes. ...Good sites ...or books.. ..anyone?

  33. Right: That'd be a good topic for a weekend. Keep reminding me to do it, please.

    Chris: I speculated yesterday, pre-attack, that EE interventions may start looking like Central Bank interventions in the FX market. For example, the BoJ used to scare the crap out of everyone. Over the past couple of months, their effective half-lives have dwindled to the point where, now, even they have little impact.

  34. I use while they don't have the best charts( which in my opinion you can get for free at, they do have a great staff and they have a virtual trading platform that is free(also the lowest commissions I have seen anywhere). You can practice using virtual funds until you get comfortable. They have great tutorials and webinars that are all free, and are great learning tools. The best options book I have seen(as far as beginners are concerned) is Options Made Easy written by Guy Cohen. Amazing book and you should be able to pick it up from your local Barnes and Nobles or Booksamillion. Hope this gets you started

  35. dd I think everytime we get to feel exhausted mentally and worn down its a good idea to withdraw too much emphasis from the short term and take a look at the longer term chart of silver.
    Pay less attention to a brief lost battle and more attention to the wining war of recent months.

  36. In the meantime, does anyone have an opinion on what the rising price of gas will ultimately have on silver? Thanks very much.

  37. The reason touted today on CNBS for the PM Sell Off is rising interest rates.

    Despite the rising rates investors get paid with ever more worthless fiat dollars.

    Net net the bond investor will take it in the shorts.

    Moreover Real Inflation is over 8% according to John Williams @ shadowstats:

    So investors won't break even with Real Inflation and they'll be repaid with devalued paper. The market will realize before long.

    That’s why I’m are buyer today.

    Bought 100 ounces of Ag Rounds. 8 weeks to deliver. Bullion broker said they're going crazy. Huge order volume, 5:1 buyers to sellers.

    Also upped my positions in GDXJ & SIL. Both on sale thanks to JPM's market manipulation.

    This pullback today is like hitting a 50% Off Sale before Christmas. Thanks Blythe!! Thanks JPM!!! Thanks Ben!!

  38. I love my local dealer! Just scored some American eagles for $2 over spot. The bad news is that he was running VERY low on rounds. He had maybe 2 or 3 rounds left. I guess the eagles he has stashed for return customers :) He also had only about 200 oz of variety 1 oz bars and a few 10 oz Engelhard bars. Good news?...He has a few(3 or 4) more tubes left of the Eagles stashed aside! :D

  39. Chris.. .that is perfect. Thanks so much for the info ...writing it down...

    I'll keep following of course, Turd, so I don't miss anything you post about this. ..Or anything for that matter! :)

  40. Cris, it's very nice to read good ol' Butler's comment but I think it's from his paid subscription so it might cause a slight issue to post on a public forum. He himself probably doesn't mind the words going out to educate people as his past KWN interviews showed but he's under some pressure to keep it to subscribers as they paid the charge.