Thursday, December 16, 2010

A Couple Quick Hits

Well, well, well. So far so good.
After a double-whammy of an EE blitzkrieg and a silver margin increase, whodathunk that our PMs would be holding in so nicely? Keep the faith folks. Have the fundos changed? Is the US suddenly crafting austerity plans and tax increases with a 5-7% GDP? I didn't think so. As I type Feb11 gold is about $1375, a full $14 off of the Blythe-induced panic attack of this morning. March11 silver is equally impressive, back above $29 at 29.15. A move back up through 29.25 would be very constructive.

Two quick things. First, I see I caused quite a stir by posting that gold chart this afternoon and positing the theory that the EE stages raids on Wednesdays so that their actions won't show up on Friday's CoT report. I didn't realize that this was such a revolutionary theory. I mean, I always thought it was pretty obvious. My friend, Cris in Maine, asked that I post the same chart for silver to see if the same pattern emerged there:
Well, whaddayaknow. How about that? In a truly stunning development it appears that the EE is at work  actively suppressing and manipulating the price of silver, too. Cris, maybe you can summarize some of this information and include it in your next correspondence with your friend Bart in DC? He might find it interesting. Anecdotal but interesting, indeed.

Second, lots of chatter tonight here and everywhere about "descending triangles" and "pennants". I thought I'd better take a look. Uh-oh, look what I found:
Boy, from the looks of it, it's all over. We're doomed! Or are we? Maybe we should consider a little. longer-term perspective:
All I did was extend the time period of our little window. Was it over on 10/27 with gold at 1325? Was it over on 11/29 with gold at 1356? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no! And it ain't over now! Avoid the wannabe top-callers and junior technicians. Don't let them frighten you with their stochastics and their RSIs. Ignore these people. History shows us that gold is going still higher. It may trade sideways for another day, even another week, but higher it is headed.

The metals continue to rebound. Now 1376 and 29.22. Feel good. Rest well. Tomorrow is another day. 


  1. My Japanese friends (and wife)will be happy that you've exonerated them Pearl Harbor. Germans, not so much!

  2. I saw this one graph that looked like the dreaded eagle flying over a turtle.... Hehehe.... Sometimes you just have to laugh at the crazyness of this thing called a market

  3. If memory serves me right, the last two times we had margin increases we had a drop in silver prices. This time it seems that the "markets" are digesting the news rather well. Maybe they already discounted this form of manipulation and the EE is running out of options. Just as with QE, could we be witnessing the law of diminshing returns?

  4. Daikokuten (大黑天), the little fella in the photo beside my name, will also be happy. In Japan, he is the god of wealth, or of the household, particularly the kitchen, and is often portrayed holding a golden mallet, otherwise known as a magic money mallet.

    Turd, one of those golden magic money mallets would go nicely with your hat!

  5. GG: I keep forgetting that not everyone catches my references. Here, this'll help:

  6. Turd, thanks for the pop culture education, and the laughs!

  7. Turd's "The Germans Bombed Peral Harbor" is an old John Belishi satire from Animal House.... haha Good one Turd.

  8. Just remember....they BLEEEEED bullion with each of these maneuvers.....and I'm helpin....

  9. O.T. Is anyone have trouble getting to Zerohedge?
    I keep getting 404'd

  10. check the "pennant" on Jesse's chart at Cafe Americain, it has quite the happy ending. When ZH posts Marla in the snow cave its usually brief and technically related on their end.

  11. @Turd that movie! "I keep forgetting that not everyone catches my references. Here, this'll help:"

  12. watch:

  13. You are the only turd in the whole world that I would love to see sitting on my front lawn. Then I could show you the shiny coins I bought last May with a loan against my 401k and again in September (insert smiley face here) thanks to you and ZeroHedge. Come January 3rd I am cashing in the remainder of my 401k, gives me 15 months before taxes etc are due, and going all in. It's either that or having my hard-earned retirement fund be a sitting duck until I retire in 13 years and also collect - ahem - social security. Thanks but no thanks.

  14. My IRA is almost 100% invested in gold and silver miners - mainly silver.

  15. Maxed out my JPMorgan Chase credit card to buy silver and chase JPMorgan out of silver market. My way of honoring the call for "Patriotic Duty".

  16. Regrading the 3rd chart - written two days erlier:

    "Chartwise I would favor a test of major support around 135x - that would create a nice and bullish (halfway) continuation pattern in the daily - and recharge golds batteries for the next leg higher."

    Note the phrase halfway. And then have a look at that "meatball projection" from grin:

    So, not to be pushed into the bearish camp - I'm fully in Turds camp - just that we have to respect the OEs. At least almost all of them. But the train could leave everyday now.

  17. Overnight action in EURUSD and Silver imho is lifting the downside targets and the risk of an ugly selloff on Friday.
    Also noteworthy the strength of EURUSD in the face of another 2 notch downgrade of Ireland.
    But the weakness in Gold confirms, that we are not out of the woods yet. Again imho.

    Regarding Euro - it starts looking as if the market finally starts getting tired of the endless bashing of european states.
    Will be interesting to see what stories the NY bangster will present next to prevent and delay the inevitable waterfall of the buck.

  18. I have been trying to convince my friends to buy Silver. One of them bit last week and bought himself 75 shiny 1 ounce coins.

    He took delivery yesterday and emailed me with 2 points

    - I never knew Silver was so pretty
    - I need more.

    Another convert!

  19. Hey Turd, all -

    Turd hope you dont mind me using your excellent blog for this - but would one of you ZH'ers mind posting on the site/down thread that user logins may also be missing?

    I only got my login at the beginning of December so I assume Sacrilege's db issue might have hit the user tables as well.

    anyway, would be cool if one of you wouldnt mind posting - so they are aware...

    Happy Friday everyone! I just got a call from the FedEx guy saying he was on his way with my perth mint ounces = )

  20. It looks like some of the "news" the NY Bansters are writing at least on Marketwatch besides the "US Passes Tax Cuts" is: "The Facing Collapse of Spain" and "Gloomy Christmas in Australia". I mean Spain is not news...... Its been one of the PIIGS for a year already.

  21. Turd - just had a look at the 6 months silver chart and it looks like yesterday formed a bullish 'doji star' candlestick pattern. It formation occurs when there is a move up countered by an more or less equal move down with the price finishing exactly where it started which creates the 'star-shaped' (+) form on the chart. The upper shadow on yesterday encroaches a little too much on Wed. red (downward finishing) candle but it fits with what you are saying. An up day on Friday would not be a surprise here.

    I have to say, you are not the first to notice the 'Tuesday rumble'. When Ted Butler used to do the metals rap on KWN he was always mentioning it for folks to be careful around that day. Ditto Gene Arensberg and 'Dan the Man' Norcini in his reports for Big Jim Sinclair (Santa).

    If you look at the silver chart or similar (I use a 6 mths chart), you can see it quite clearly.

  22. @rui

    I have a line of $25K on my Chase Card but am afraid to use it for PMs. But if I knew PMs were going up 40% in the next few months I cound go all in and the $25K would be worth $35K. I could then sell $25 K, pay off my card and have $10K for my own possession. It would have to go up rather fast though, due to 15% interest or 3% zero balance transfer fee.