Friday, December 10, 2010

$1500 by 12/10/10

Well, nuts. We didn't make it. Since this site is about honest opinions and I enjoy the "atta boy, turd" comments that roll in when I'm right, I feel I must discuss the ultimate failure of this call.

First, some context. Last summer gold broke, and broke hard. After reaching a high of $1267 on June 21, gold corrected all the way back to $1163 on 7/27. That's 8.21% in 5 weeks. Ouch. By late July and early August, many of my friends at ZH were apoplectic, dispeptic and, frankly, pathetic. Constantly goaded and ridiculed by trolls, some even gave up and sold their gold and silver.

I, your humble correspondent, knew that the secular bull market in the metals wasn't over. Not even close. We were simply in a corrective phase and corrections happen all the time. They are, in fact, healthy for the long-term life of the bull. Talk is cheap, however, so I knew I need to make a bold prediction. Put it out there and repeat it often in order to provide, if I could, some measure of confidence to those in need.

If memory serves me correctly, August 13 was the date I first issued my "1350 by Halloweeen and 1500 by 12/10/10" proclamation. On that day, gold closed at $1218.20 so this was, by no means, a lay-up. I was certain, however, that gold was in a long-term bull market and that the late summer correction had run its course. As it turns out, I was right.

Many have asked how I cam up with the numbers. It probably won't surprise you that it wasn't complicated. The $1350 price target was only about 6% from the high of 6/21 and maybe 16% from the low of 7/27, so it really wasn't asking much. Plus, 1350 was a nice round number and Halloween was an easy date to remember. We made it! Gold reached $1352.60 on 10/6/10, more than three weeks ahead of schedule. My reasoning behind $1500 by 12/10 was that gold would likely rally another 10% from there before some year end profit-taking. We almost got there. In fact, there was still hope just this past Tuesday when gold traded as high as $1432.50. Close...but no cigar. However, considering we've moved UP almost $300 from the lows in July, I still feel vindicated. The naysayers and trolls will always be there. Ignore them. Always ignore them.

So, where do we go from here. As you all know, Santa has maintained for years that gold will reach $1650 by 1/14/11. Wow, if he's right...whew, that would be great. As for The Turd, I'll just continue to play the percentages. If gold were to finish up 2010 around this level, we'll put another year in the books at +25% or so. This is about the average annual gain since the current bull market started back in 2001. With no end to QE and its incumbent currency wars in sight, there's no reason to think 2011 won't bring more of the same. $1400 + 25% = $1750

Hmmm....where did I hear that $1750 price target before??? Oh, now I remember...Goldman Sachs!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-to-peak-at-1750-in-2012-goldman-sachs-2010-12-01
Isn't it amazing that you can do some simple math and come up with a gold target but if you put a GS logo on it, people will voluntarily pay you millions in fees and commissions? Jeezo pete, this "industry" is such a sham. But I digress, that's a topic for another day.

For today, some BS economic "news" has provided the dollar with a little bounce and given Blythe the opportunity to raid gold once again. Two things we have going for us:
1) There should be a lot of support between 1370-75 and lots more at 1365. Blythe will fail and when she fails, she will have unwittingly painted a very nice double-bottom for us on the chart. Thanks, Blythe! Also, let's watch the $1374 closing level as that is still important on the weekly chart.
2) Silver is hanging tough. Currently $28.39. The EE'd have to take it through 28 to do any real damage.
Remember this, too, from Dan Norcini earlier this week:

"There is a band of congestion support in silver coming in near the 26.75 – 26.45 level. From a technical perspective we would not want to see it violate 25 to the downside. Good technical action in the grey metal would be for it to hold above the recent breakout level near 27.90 and work sideways for a week or so."
Ole Dan has forgotten a lot more about metals trading than The Turd currently knows so he provides some excellent advice here. Sit tight. Let's see what happens next.

67 comments:

  1. Well, Turd, at least you owed up to a missed target, which is better than most would admit to (for most, their successes are carved in granite and their failures in sand). Better luck next time.

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  2. Thanks, Turd. I was a bit taken aback by the numbers this morning, but they are just numbers after all. I suppose that's the nice thing about holding physical. In the end, the only number that really matters is the number of ounces...

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  3. Just fro fun...a close back above 1395.60 would give us an upside reversal day. Something to root for today, at least.

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  4. Ron Paul as we all know has been after Bernanke and the Fed for sometime. Were he and others successful in gaining some control if not completely abolishing the Fed one could only wonder what it would mean for PM prices short and long term. One would think it might be helpful for America...any thoughts? See the short read below from GATA.


    http://www.gata.org/node/9407

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  5. Not to worry Turd...our bearded wonder will speak soon and when he does...$1500 will be a distant memory of what was one a cheap entry point. Besides, $1500 is just another number on the chart that will go under the psychological resistance/support column. Keep the good/bad news comin!

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  6. Turd, darling, this was a lovely post. I admire a man who is willing to face up to his shortcomings. I adore the analysis and your charts are like artwork.

    But here's the truth honey: I own this market and therefore I set the price of gold and silver. The paper I print costs me nothing. It's not even paper. It's just an electronic sell order generated by a computer. I can generate billions of these in a few seconds--I don't even need people to do this. I have unlimited credit at 0% courtesy of my friend Ben, and a backstop guarantee from my friends Tim and Obama. I am strong, smart, beautiful, and sexy. But most of all, I am invincible.

    The paper market is my sandbox, honey. I own it. You can play here if you wish, but you have to pay to play. And I will see to it that you pay.

    Those of you in the physical market can thank me at your convenience for another buying opportunity. Blythe appreciates your warm wishes.

    TTFN,

    Blythe

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  7. Blythe: I love you, sweetheart. Please keep posting here. No one should consider you a troll. Your posts are terrific!

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  8. Turd, this is a bit OT but important..not sure if you have read this yet, but if you haven't...this should solidify in anyone's mind what is coming. If the military is preparing, then we are certainly on the right track here. http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/12.10/pentagon.html

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  9. Hey Turd,

    Thanks for the great writing style that makes this informative blog just keep on truckin'.

    In relative terms, I put your predictions as good enough on the money! Corruption abound, who sez you're not a target too, eh bub? = )

    I'm not a paper-player and I'm into physical slowly and surely. I make sure to check your posts daily so please do keep em coming.

    Thanks man

    James

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  10. For anyone watching the USDX...which should be about everybody with a short-term price interest...we don't want to see the DecUSDX get through 80.42 and move higher. It hit that level on both Wednesday and yesterday and was repelled. We certainly don't want to see it go through there today.

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  11. Notwithstanding the humorous/educational posting above, who's to say that the real Blythe isn't lurking around Turd's blog? Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants?

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  12. I see Ms.Masters comments as a sure sign of her culpability...my warm wishes for you would be 3 hots and a cot.

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  13. Blythe baby, history is simply littered with examples of seemingly all powerful entities who were taken down. From David v. Goliath, to the Bluecoats v the Redcoats, from Gandhi v the British to Ali v Foreman, right up to the Giants v. the Patriots.

    And it happens when you least expect it.

    So get a nice tan this weekend in the Caribbean -- remember bikini season is right around the corner. No Chrsitmas fifteen for you Blythe!

    You have to keep yourself well so that someone wants you after you go down in flames. Little thing called position limits is coming. And if that doesn't get you, the inevitable shortage of silver will.

    You see Blythe, you don't make the rules. You just think you do. Just like every other seemingly invincible person before you.

    It must be tough to get old Blythe.

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  14. Turd-I posted something kinda similar the other day, but I was thinking about JPM and HSBC and how much anger people have with them. We should all actually be happy they are keeping prices low. I would much rather buy silver at $28.25 right now than $38.25 or gold at $1380 than $1680. We all know how this game is going to end. Why not be happy we can accumulate more?

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  15. I did it!
    Kitco charts for gold and silver are finally on this page!!

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  16. Turd,

    Can you commment on what Franklin Sanders said in his blog last night about the "present glut" of silver on the market. This is incongruous with what I am reading and seeing. Is this a cause for concern?

    BTW, your blog is teh awsum.

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  17. Pentagon planning always makes for good conspiracy fodder. As someone who been there and done that contingency planning/operations is something the military does all the time. You conceive of a scenario, someone has built a contingency plan to deal with it. When they run out of scenarios they pull old plans off the shelf and rework them based on updated data and current events. Just a day at the office for your average Strategic Planner. You can over react if you want to. I'm not.

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  18. Treasury Secretary Geithner to undergo kidney-stone surgery...The Metals really likes this announcement it seems.

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  19. poor timmuh. Kidney stones hurt like a MFer.

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  20. TF:

    Here is the "glut" link:

    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

    It's in the post from yesterday, about 3-4 screens down.

    Danke.

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  21. Turd,

    You put silver in euros per ounce just to screw with us right?

    I looked up and and was like WOW, it really dropped today. $21. Time to load up the truck! HOW much is in that home equity account, honey?

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  22. Silber: I take it that this is what concerns you:

    "Folks keep on questioning me about the present glut of silver on the market. They cite JP Morgan's silver short, etc., etc. Whether that JP Morgan story is true or not, I only know that when refineries are backed up from now to February, and when large wholesalers completely pull their bids on 90% coins, that does NOT signal a silver shortage. Rather, the opposite. And remember that the pipeline is very narrow, and easily clogged, and very shallowly financed.
    Apparently this was not clear to numerous readers, so I will clarify: US refineries are clogged with a glut of silver. Gluts of silver do not appear at market lows, or at continuation levels; gluts appear at peaks. I do not mean the ULTIMATE peak of the bull market, but certainly an intermediate peak."

    Who am I to argue with this guy. He sounds reasoned and experienced. On the other side, who am I to argue with this guy. He is certainly reasoned and experienced, too:

    http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264545225&qz=00b57b

    My money is on Sprott.

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  23. TF,
    You must feel ashamed. You have led so many of us astray. How do you sleep at night? Apparently, the whole JPM silver short thing is just a made up story designed to make Max Keiser and a few coin dealers very wealthy. Boy.. are we all gullible or what.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/241152-jp-morgan-and-the-massive-silver-short-the-greatest-story-ever-told?source=hp_latest_articles

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  24. PS.. I'm placing my bets with someone who goes by 'Turd' and not someone who goes by 'Kid Dynamite'. ....At least you aren't a cartoon character.

    ........or ARE you ?? *raises eyebrow*

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  25. DXY looking very heavy and set to roll back over...nice 3 failed spikes on my 4 hour chart.

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  26. RIR..so are you with the Turd or not with the Turd. Im confused. Did you forget the /sarc at the end of that?

    "You must feel ashamed. You have led so many of us astray. How do you sleep at night?"

    "PS.. I'm placing my bets with someone who goes by 'Turd' and not someone who goes by 'Kid Dynamite'. ....At least you aren't a cartoon character.?

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  27. Turd, I see a future in which you will post your highly anticipated weekly video blog in costume no doubt. It will be the biggest hit in the metals blogging universe!

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  28. Hi Ben.. ..my humor is a bit too dry I admit. I am VERY grateful for TF's blog here and all that I have learned so far. I am not looking back as I go forward with my new collecting hobby (SILVER & MINER!).

    I honestly would love for Turd...and all of us...to be wrong because it would mean that our country isn't going to suffer the fate that we all know it will if current economic policies continue. But if you are a student of history, logic and just plain old common sense, then you know what we are in for and what the powers that be are setting us up for. What I really can't figure out is whether I believe if it is all intentional or being done through some massive collective stupidity.

    Sorry if I didn't make my (sarcastic) intent clear enough in the above!

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  29. Seeking Alpha...what a peanut gallery.

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  30. @RIR Thanks for the clarity...I was wondering!

    @dd... that would be awesome! Dont know if Turd has that kinda of time, but it certainly would be entertaining!

    Wuddya say Turd? Ready for the big time?

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  31. RIR had sarc most definitely on, I'm sure.

    To me, Ag just *feels* right. That's all the evidence I need.

    JPM also *feel* like a bunch of evil bastards. So I'm going with the laws of nature and vibing off the duality here.

    An Oz in the hand backs this up. Nuff said!

    I think this is the case for a lot of people out there, too.

    In short: Fuck Kid Dynamite, he's a shill, bitchez.

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  32. Silver Daily Double Bottom "basic" Analysis

    1) Double bottom Nov 16 & 17 $25, silver climbs to $27.89 in 3 day.

    2)Double bottom Nov 26 & 29 $26.50, silver climbs to $30.75 in 6 days.

    3) PENDING double bottom Dec 8 & 10 $28, silver climbs to ???

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  33. I have started a Google Spreadsheet to keep track of the COMEX silver inventories over time. I will try to update this daily if possible.

    Google Spreadsheet

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  34. Very good observation. I have been watching the same thing, SLV just broke out above yesterdays closing price. SLV is usually a leading indicator of the price of silver. We should resume the uptrend now.

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  35. @dd 3) PENDING double bottom Dec 8 & 10 $28, silver climbs to ???

    Infinity and beyond.

    @sassballsgrandpa Can you put those values in a chart on that google spreadsheet? Is that option available?

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  36. Turd.Don,t worry the more they forces the price down the more physical Gold and Silver are disappearing from the market,in the short term they are holding the line in the long term they are committing economic suicide.Eventually when the printing is valued in the reaction is going to be violently down for the worthless dollar.As they loose physical they are loosing control.Buy the f****n dips.

    Buy Silver,take down a bank,its your patriotic duty.

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  37. It will be interesting to see how today plays out. If we are already finished with the pullback after only 4 days it will be hard to judge where we will go from here. Sell into strength, Buy into weakness and you can't lose. Try to find the exact tops and bottoms, and it'll humble you almost every time.

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  38. I found one collaborator who I authorized to update my Google Doc Google Doc

    He may add some rows, columns and delivery info. Until there are a few rows, graphing is not realistic for now.

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  39. dd: I accept your challenge.

    $31.85 in 4 1/2 days!

    Great analysis by the way.

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  40. I've been out Xmas shopping. Very pleased to see the PMs rally back. Very positive, especially for a Friday.
    I'm anxiously awaiting the unveiling of the new POMO schedule at 2:00 est. I have a new post and updated weekly charts a little later.

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  41. [ backstop guarantee from my friends Tim and Obama ] The 2 biggest losers the world's ever produced...As for the silver glut...suppressing silver prices for 2 decades has resulted in no significant new mines being opened. The demand has gone up exponentially while supply has dwindled....I'm glad I studied economics and not cartoons

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  42. All this talk of a short squeeze made me think of you, Turd, and all your Freudian issues with size.

    Blythe keeps up on the short squeeze gossip, and keeps a personal stash of physical, which she somehow manages to buy at the bottom of the market every time, in her penthouse. It's good to be Queen; membership has its privileges.

    Blythe's most recent purchase of the shiny silver metal (at $25.xx/oz, thank you very much) from a major U.S. Mint is scheduled for delivery in March, 2011. That's a four-month wait for delivery, which does not indicate a glut of physical on the market. Blythe would be careful about rumors of a glut. Whoever would start such rumors?

    My day is almost finished, although I may work a little OT today for a quick run at the Globex before my weekend jaunt to my home in St. John.

    TTFN,

    Blythe

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  43. Watching the 5 minute Silver spot chart...the 20ma is wanting to cross over that 50ma...it fell back a few ticks ago. If that 20 heads over the 50 we should see a decent uptick here. Unless something else twisted happens.

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  44. You gotta hand it to her. That Blythe is a real trouper, coming on here and joshing with us like that. She must feel she's got everything under control in the office.

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  45. "I honestly would love for Turd...and all of us...to be wrong because it would mean that our country isn't going to suffer the fate that we all know it will if current economic policies continue."

    Well said.

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  46. edit: Watching the 5 minute Silver spot chart...the 20ma is wanting to cross over that 200ma...it fell back a few ticks ago. If that 20 heads over the 200 we should see a decent uptick here. Unless something else twisted happens.

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  47. Here's an interesting reader note that I saw on today's post at www.urbansurvival.com. It relates back nicely to the earlier post about Asians buying bullion.

    "For years now the "doomsayers", in the financial alternative press have been predicting that the next and perhaps final great crash of the world markets will be a sovereign debt crash and would first appear as open dumping of government debt, like T-Bills, etc. Well, last night the word hit the rumor mills that the Fed was terrified by the initial dumping of bonds across the globe on Wednesday, so they pulled out all the stops and used every resource they have to drive down all commodity prices in the hope of cutting off the bond rout. It worked, for now, but the surprising part is that they were unable to drive the physical metals down further. Both silver and gold hit support levels and would not fall further. Why? Because the Chinese are calling their bluff. The Chinese are buying and taking delivery of gold and silver in a big way right now through third party agents. They are laughing all the way to their bullion vaults as they cart off the last physical reserves the Fed can get hold of. In the words of one writer out of London yesterday afternoon, they consider the Fed to be like a bunch of cartoon characters - dumb and comical as all heck - and they are taking full advantage of the situation.

    The Fed's response was that they had their mouth pieces out late yesterday announcing the "shocking", revelation in the financial press that the Chinese have been huge gold buyers for the last year - secretly dumping their paper dollar reserves for gold. This is hardly a revelation to insiders, but it is news to the mainstream media. Why is the Fed announcing this? Because they are loosing the battle to suppress the prices of physical metals. There is shortly going to be a market forced big pop up in the price of both gold and silver as the Fed looses control. The Fed is setting the stage to blame the whole thing on Chinese intervention in order to try to hide the fact that large investors across the globe continue to dump government bonds and move in to commodities even as I write this. "

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  48. I could easily be wrong, but I'm not sure that Harvey Organ's stats support a current massive Chinese buying spree. The truth is in the numbers, not in the chatter.

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  49. "I honestly would love for Turd...and all of us...to be wrong because it would mean that our country isn't going to suffer the fate that we all know it will if current economic policies continue."

    I am sure all you boomers/old x'ers would. You could then live out the rest of your days confident that you didn't fuck the generations behind you into a life of indentured servitude to TPTB.

    Leave it to my generation to clean up the mess. We will have no problem putting things back together, and rest assured you will not like our solutions.

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  50. I dream of the day when we double bottom at 33!

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  51. $105B in the next round of POMO

    Link is here:

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    Laugh, cry, wonder in amazement. It is what is happening.

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  52. @fuck Regardless, we have to clean the mess up...boomers or not. I sincerely hope we don't collapse, but unfortunately I see NO WAY in HELL for that to not happen. There are certainties in life, you know...death, taxes, and Gold/Silver. Pitchforks and Torches will be the solution I'm afraid.

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  53. Yes Ben the probability of calamity is 1.

    Unrelated note.

    If you have a Globex GTC order, the brokers will be cancelling at the close of trading today.

    I wouldn't be suprised to see a rout in Globex.

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  54. @fuck...what do you mean, a GTC order will be closed out today? I was under the impression that GTC meant good-til-closed or good-til-cancelled. Waht gives a broker the right to cancel an open order without being instructed to do so?

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  55. Looks like we're headed for some sort of movement before the end of the day...up or down. Hopefully UP is the way for the Silver spot. golden cross on the 15min chart is possible.....I'd love a close of $28.80 or so today.

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  56. hey fuck - you've decided to adopt the persona here of the angry young dude, which is fine, there's a lot of anger out there. . . but I hope you can leave the stereotypes behind soon. . . the arbitrary labels you've adopted from the media are not much use except to undermine those who would band together against those who pull the strings - in this, age does not matter, okay? intent is the basis.

    not everyone here is a "boomer/oldX'er" - not everyone of that age group thinks/acts the same, not everyone has been out there strip-mining the system. . .

    don't let the media do your thinking for you.

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  57. I'd like to see it go down some more. My next buy/add point for both physical and SLV calls is the 20dma.

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  58. Rocoach......you must know the game and what the Chinese are doing is playing a game they invented....Death by a thousand cuts. The BOS are playing a game they control. They understand reality however. WHY WOULD they blow up the COMEX when they can completely and slowly squeeze the market position of JPM to death....they will use that short position to continue to accumulate large physical bullion over a period of time...and the longer they drag out the time....the betterl

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  59. Since I have drawn the ire of the board. Allow me to address you.

    Concerning Globex.

    I got a message from my broker. Here it is verbatum. Whoops it appeared that I deleted the message. They said it had to do with system changes on the COMEX Globex market. No other specifics were mentioned.

    Concerning my hatred for the elderstatesmen of this board.

    I realize that most of you reading this blog aren't like your peers. I don't mean to lump others into catagories where they don't belong. For that I apologize.

    I really didn't mean to choose the word fuck as my handle. Please address me as HorseFucker, which is what I meant to put.

    Nay!!!

    P.S. I hate the media, and technology. Terminator 2 scarred me in my youth, and I have a rather disturbed view on technology in general.

    I believe nothing that is told to me, only the sweet nothings my wife says to me when I am giving her a hot carl.

    I really just said that, cause I don't give a fuck. This be the internet.

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  60. Here's a tip for the silverbugs...
    U.S. Mint is set to relaunch the sale of the ATB (America the Beautiful) 5 Oz coins today. They have placed a strict limit on the premium price and also limited them to one per customer.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704720804576010132267578092.html

    Since these were PRESOLD on eBay for up to $3000 a set and the estimated cost (based on the U.S. mint requirements) should be in the ballpark of $895-$1000.... I suggest you go to APMEX and put in your request for a set today.

    http://www.apmex.com/Category/110/America_the_Beautiful_Silver_Bullion_Coin%E2%84%A2_Program.aspx

    Just a friendly tip on a potentially good profit purchase.... enjoy.

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  61. Maybe the putative JPM short issue is ultimately irrelevant? We all believe that silver prices will rise. A lot. We had that belief before we'd heard of the JPM short, and we'd have that belief even if there is no JPM short.

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  62. Bill Murphy on PM manipulation...a must listen video!


    http://inflation.us/videos.html

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