Thursday, December 2, 2010

Terms and Conditions

Before we get started this morning, I thought I would share an email I received yesterday from my new friend, Graham, in Australia. (My new friend, Graham, in Australia! Isn't that awesome?)

"I have only request: as you get more followers (and potentially more "donations"), please do not change your style and the frank way you express your views.  If you get too successful the trap for you may be that you try to keep everyone happy all the time by "sitting on the fence" or hedging your views so that you are never "wrong".  The world is full of useless, equivocal market prognosticators.  May you never join their camp!"

To live by these rules you, my dear reader, and I must have an understanding. You know I started this blog because I felt that we need to educate and warn as many folks as possible about what is, most assuredly, coming. The end of The Great Keynesian Experiment and all that that implies. However, I very much enjoy following the gold and silver markets and profiting from trading them. Obviously, this is an interest of yours, too. Now, I recognize that I seem to be particularly good at predicting future prices. Since that's all part of the fun, my promise is that I will continue to tell you exactly what I think is going to, tomorrow, next week and into the future. When I am right (often), take it for what it is...another good call by someone who has some experience in this arena. When I am wrong (sometimes), let's all just deal with it and move on. If you, my dear reader, promise not to whine and/or complain when the markets temporarily move against us, I promise to always tell you exactly what I think

OK, on to today. I must admit that I am surprised and disappointed that gold and silver didn't blast off last night. Perhaps that move is still in the cards for later today but I felt quite certain that we'd be above $1400 and approaching $29 this morning. Nuts.

So, why aren't we? Good question. I've looked at all the headlines and checked for rumors. Nothing. So, to me, there are a couple of things going on:

1) Consolidation. We are already up $20+ this week in gold and we are poised directly below a "century mark". Gold often tends to consolidate and trade flat in between days of big up moves and gold often struggles with century levels...1000, 1100, 1200 etc.
2) BLS BS. You and I aren't the only ones concerned that the BLS will massage tomorrow's employment numbers, thereby creating the illusion of an improving economy, leading to dollar strength, leading to algo PM selling. Can't blame big $ traders for taking a "wait-and-see" approach to tomorrow.
3) Same old, same old. Feb11 gold did manage to make it to 1396 at 3:00 am before the Monkeys on the Night Desk drained $11 out of it over the next 6 hours.

So, sit back, relax and enjoy the action today. We've got about 9bil in POMO this morning so "sh*t ain't goin down". I'll be here keeping an eye on things and I'll keep you posted if I see anything interesting happening.

And one more thing, with so many new readers flocking to this blog (utterly unbelievable to Mrs Ferguson and I), I've being asked quite often for a "glossary" of Turdisms. This would probably be a fun note to construct...maybe something to do over the weekend. So, if there are any acronyms, terms or names that you'd like me define, put it in the comments section below or email me at (can't wait to see which ones you all find to be the most confusing). 


  1. Of course the basics:
    - Blythe (I mean, new readers don't know wtf Blythe is)
    - EE
    - Flying Monkey brigade
    - Death Star
    In short, all the funny terms to deal with this actually not so funny reality.
    Thanx as always!

  2. Good idea, CD.
    btw, I'm feeling better and better about my call of 81.50 on the USDX as the top of the dead cat bounce. From here watch 80.25 on the Dec10 USDX. Let's see what happens there.

  3. PS: I didn't even know Blythe was a name.

    And, yes, something else - where did you buy your crystal ball from? I mean, do you have nightly visions or how did you learn to predict market behaviour so precisely?

  4. Here, Daniel, try this:

  5. I'm also very interested in knowing what you look for to discern the market situations. Your posts have been doing that for me. Your charts with definitions of support/resistance are really helpful for me to get an idea of "why" you think what you do. I don't like being dependent. :) But I realize we all need teachers.

    Ive heard that if you do just about any task for 20,000 hours you will get good at it. I'm about 2 years into this.

    Thanks for being a willing teacher.

  6. OK, now we're starting to roll.

    1393.60 and 28.82

  7. Big spike just now. Maybe $29 is still in the cards today.

  8. Turd, I'd suggest you define "doucebag" as it is obviously one of your favorite terms of describing certain types of people. LOL.

  9. Graham sounds like a smart guy. He gives good advice!

    Yup, we are rolling now...28.86 and POMO is starting...

  10. Graham in Australia is smart guy. I was thinking yesterday that one of the potential downsides to succeeding at something is that (sometimes) it tends to 'change' people. The advice about not feeling like you have to cater to any particular interest is priceless. Stay who you are and doing what you do Turd! .....It's brought you this far.

    POMO ?
    BoS (Buyer of Size, right?)

  11. Turd dear,
    you are an island of sanity in this mad world.
    When i come for your blog I am in search of understanding. I don't trade, I just want to understand what's happening cos even if you have prepared, you don't know how long you can hold the line. Nobody knows.

  12. It's 10:35 EST. Let's just see if the BoS decide to quickly punch us through 1400 to 1405. If they want to, they certainly could. Keep your fingers crossed.

  13. A start ...

    Abbr. Description
    BO or bo breakout (of range or trend channel or other TA pattern)
    COT Commitments of traders Report
    DYOD do your own due diligence" or "Do Your Own Decision"
    fwiw for what it's worth
    gl & gt good luck and (many) good trades
    IMHO in my honest opinion
    LMAO laughing my ass of
    LOL laughing out loud
    MOP maximum option pain
    IMVHO n my very honest opinion
    NAV Net asset value
    OI Open Interest
    OMG Oh my god
    PMs precious metals
    PM or pm private message
    PO price objective
    POG price of gold
    POMO permant open market operation (Fed)
    TOMO temporary open market operation (Fed)
    POS price of silver
    ROFL rolling in the floor
    SAR Stop and Reverse
    SM Stock market
    SSDD Same shit - different day

    EUR Euro
    GBP or cable British pound
    CAD or loonie Canadian dollar
    CHF or swissie Swiss franc
    JPY or yen Japanese yen
    AUD Australian dollar
    NZD or kiwi New Zealand dollar
    crosses currency-pairs between major currencies - f.e. EURJPY, EURCHF

    @ES SnP
    @DJ Dow Jones
    @NG Natgas
    @CL Crude
    @HG Copper
    @GC Gold
    @SI Silver
    @PL Platinum
    @W Wheat
    @C Corn
    @SL Soybeans
    @DX US Dollar index
    @HO Heating Oil
    @C Corn

    F January
    G February
    H March
    J April
    K May
    M June
    N July
    O August
    U September
    V October
    X November
    Z Deecember
    Example GCK09 = Gold May contract for 2009

  14. Oh my goodness, you MUST take time to read this:

  15. Thanks for the heads up there TF...appreciate it.

    Now to pass it on...put something in your email to make it non machine readable (the word (at) like I wrote) or you'll be inundated with spam when a bot discovers it.

    Thanks again...

  16. Re guardian article: I found the comments more telling than the article. Seems like a lot of people fail to see the criminal and immoral nature of JPM's market manipulation. I fear that as things continue to heat up people like us will be labeled "speculators" and scapegoated.

  17. December 2, 2010 7:39 AM - Turd don't expect too much of it - that "campain" is already a week or two weeks old I think - but combine it with the european bank run dec 7th (empty you bank account - and put at least part if it in silver) - and that could get pretty interesting.

    Unfortunately though at that date we might see mega silver prices, so that is just wishful thinking.

    Anyway 5 days left - and with dec 9th Cylicsts high for this cycle (for most markets) - we could see a deflationairy spat after dec 7-9th.
    Add year end redemptions and thinner volume into yearend ... and some being afraid of a dollar devaluation over the yearend and you have very good reasons to flee back into cash or shorts for some weeks at least.

  18. this video is close to 3 weeks old already ..

  19. ok 2 weeks and 2 days ... sorry

    Nevertheless I think the resulting sentiment is quite important - as silver is in the spotlight since weeks now.

  20. Turd, I've seen you write that your preferred way to trade is on options on futures. I've invested in equities before, have largely exited that world and bought lots of physical (especially silver) in anticipation of What's To Come (tm). But until that day, I'd like to try my hand at trading futures. Of course I've started by reading about it a bit, but I want to know what you did when you got into it. Any books you think are must reads? Or did you just open an account and learn on the fly?

    I've seen your links to other blogs about metals. What about agricultural or energy? I understand if you don't want to show your whole hand. You've been so kind in talking about things as much as you have. I just want to see what else is out there. Thanks so much! -Phaethon

  21. Palladium and silver usually move in lockstep, but the Pd has been outperforming over the last few days. Any ideas why?

  22. Unfortunately, Phaethon, the best teacher in the options market is experience and, often, experience costs you a lot of money.
    Many online futures brokers will set you up with an account, however, and let you "practice" trade for free, to kind of learn the ropes a bit. I'd start there and, only if you get comfortable, and, if you have money you are comfortable losing, then give it a try.

  23. flaunt: Fundos? I dunno. Your guess is as good as mine.

  24. Hey, I have a question.
    I've received several notes regarding difficulty setting up a Google account so that a visitor might be able to post comments. Anyone else have the same experience? Anyone have a simple, explainable solution?
    Much obliged.

  25. Google uses the same login for all of their sites. So the easiest thing to do would be to open a gmail account.

  26. turd,
    what do see as key levels for closing today?

  27. turd-my buddy (who has been buying gold for the last few years as well) was excited this morning that goldman hiked their call to 1750 on gold. i don't necessarily like this because it brings too many speculators to the market who aren't buying physical, while i am. if the EE can keep the ponzi alive a few more years, it creates a lot of uncertainty and doesn't allow me to buy at levels i'd like to.

    any comment on not whether you agree with goldman's call, but to whether you like them doing this?

  28. Roger: The only thing to guard against today would be a reversal and close back below 1385. Not that even slightly expect that to happen as we push 1400 but you never know.

  29. Nukes raining down on the Death Star!

  30. Kyle: If you're a fan of ZH, you know that Goldman is often dead wrong and misleading in their predictions. On this one, however, they are correct.

    Gold has been consistently putting in 20-30% annual gains for almost a decade now so, when predicting 2011, that's the place to start. If we finish this month at 1500, why not expect 1800-1900 in 2011?

  31. "Don't let money change ya" -Gift of Gab/Blackalicious
    I don't know Mr. Ferguson [no relation ;)], but I do know he's been dropping knowledge consistently for the better part of a year at least on other forums and I have yet to experience anything even remotely disingenuous or self serving. The interwebs can be a strange and scary place. I think we are free from that here.
    Turd Ferguson=Fresh Air

  32. dd: Use the force, Luke. Trust your instincts.

  33. Getting set up to be able to post here WAS an extremely confusing and time consuming exercise. They don't make it easy. Basically.. after a few tries I just finally linked a blog that I have set up (RightIsRight..which I don't currently and it seemed to let me post here after I did that. ...That isn't much help in the way of explaining a simple stress free way of getting signed up.. but it does tell you that they make it way too durn hard! ...I can understand people's frustration and many people are probably giving up since it's so time/labor intensive.

  34. I've noticed there are a lot of mainstream prognosticators nowadays low-balling gold and silver in an attempt to seems smart when the two inevitably outperform their feeble predictions. It's just a way to jump on the bandwagon and say "see I was right." It's bullsh!t. The ones who really know what they're talking about show some balls and are often right... James Turk was predicting silver to 30 when it sounded crazy and it would have gotten there if it hadn't been for the margin hike shenanigans. Jim Sinclair is calling for 1650 on gold by January. With the gold/silver ratio shrinking that would put silver easily over 35.

  35. I hear ya, flaunt.
    Beginning last July on ZH, and at the heart of the last serious correction and gold was 1175, I started calling for 1350 by Halloween and 1500 by 12/10/10. I think most folks thought I was nuts.

    That said, I'm gonna need a little help to be right on the second one. Is $100 in six trading days too much to ask? We'll see.

  36. Btw, you all are currently seeing gold pause right at the next "century" mark of 1400, the high of the day in the Feb11 is 1399.70. Nobody wants to be the first to print a filled order ticket at 1400.10.
    If hangs it here long enough, however, it will burst through and head straight to 1404-05.

  37. Oh, and have you noticed the $? Sinking like a stone. A decisive move through 80.15 and its headed immediately to 79.65. The next half-point drop will catapult the PMs even higher.

  38. Kyle - the stalker, a pretty wellkown source of GATA/Midas and possible a chinese buying group a few months earlier already projected 1600 as of end of March 2011. That stalker source has only once been wrong in all the past years - when the projected price was reached couple of months after the predicted one.
    So back to Goldmans call ... 1750 is not that far of - and given Cyclists peak in june 2011 - 1750 is quite possible. According to Turd and Cyclist we have the next peak Dec 9th, thereafter a correction and then then next leg higher into March and possibly even summer.

    But thru the mediumterm waves I think we can't have better guidance than Turds!
    Stalker - Cyclist - Bruce - Turd
    Our 4 musqeteers
    With Turd the d'Artagnan
    And Blythe Milady.
    And JPM Rochefort.
    Long live d'Artagnan!

  39. 3.3 Billion Ounces thats a hell of a lot of non-existant for sale silver to find or put it another way a lot of metal that has been sold that was never owned.The net is indeed closing in on the Silver racket.Now here is a very interesting question, what is the real unmanipulated price of physical Silver,what will it be in 1 year or 5 years,I think we will be getting a hint of that astounding price very soon and this won,t be like the Hunt brothers in the early 80,s,the market won,t collapse and the new astounding price will be the new reality.

  40. copied for wikipedia:

    The character is initially a hotheaded youth, and tries to engage the Comte de Rochefort and the three musketeers, Athos, Porthos, and Aramis in single combat. He quickly becomes friends with the musketeers, and has a series of adventures which put him at odds with Cardinal Richelieu, then First Minister of France. In the end, Richelieu is impressed by d'Artagnan, and makes him a Lieutenant of the Musketeers. This begins his long career of military service, as detailed in the sequels to Dumas' famous novel.
    D'Artagnan's role among the Musketeers is one of leadership (his skills and brains impress the musketeers greatly), but he is also regarded as a sort of protegee given his youth and inexperience. The musketeers (especially Athos) see him not only as a best friend and fellow musketeer (despite his initial job as a guard) but as a son. They are very protective of him, though they usually let him take care of himself like the others.

    Turd Likes!!

  41. $28.90 is the line in the sand right now. (12:40 EST) Same as a couple of days ago...battle starting at 12:00 and after about an hour, a breakout.

    On a different note: When the Republican house takes over in January, won't Bernanke have a lot of splaining to do?

  42. Cyclist must be a subscriber to the McClellan Market letter since that is exactly what it is saying. Left unsaid is that McClellan also sees the major 13 month gold cycle low in early January. But as their letter often notes, bottoms sometimes are things you drop into and sometimes things you just rise out of. So the approach should be to buy any dip into Dec 9 and make sure you have your full position on in January.
    Between McClellan and Turd, I'm covered on both the short-term trading cycles and longer-term investment cycles.

  43. Masters to Monkeys: "Attack!"

  44. First squadron of Monkeys just took off from USS BLYTHE.

  45. Wow, almost 0.50 in 20 minutes, and they may not be done yet.

  46. With no news or even rumors out there, my gut tells me that Blythe is trying to paint an "outside reversal day" on the daily chart. To pull this off, she needs a Comex close below 1383. In 15 minutes we'll know if she's successful.

  47. I've often wondered how precise support/resistance lines, previous highs/lows were -- how close do you have to be? Horseshoes or pool?

  48. Turd, you're the man!...didn't see that possible play for an "outside reversal day".

  49. dd: You mean this one?
    Roger: The only thing to guard against today would be a reversal and close back below 1385. Not that even slightly expect that to happen as we push 1400 but you never know.
    December 2, 2010 8:44 AM

    Always gotta be on guard with Blythe lurking around every corner.

  50. SLV up .29% for the day.

    Sprott physical silver fund (PSLV) up 3.18% for the day?

  51. I just stumbled upon your blog, We are talking about the same thing!! I have a blog doing the exact same thing you are. I hope you have looked into Ron Paul... which I am sure you have.
    Please when you get the chance check out my blog and maybe in the future we can work together possibly.
    Keep up the good work, I will be following as well now.

    Scott J

  52. This comment has been removed by the author.

  53. To Turd: just keep on calling it like you see it, and your blog will flourish. I'd rather have the straight poop from a guy calling himself Turd as opposed to what passes for financial advice from some dingleberry analyst. You rock, Turd.

  54. To Phaethon: if you're interested in futures, there are quite a few books out there, and a lot of them can be pretty dry or downright confusing (not to mention dangerous to your account). One of the better ones, from a fellow who was not only a great trader in his day, but who also had some good insight into investor psychology, is called "How the Futures Markets Work", by Jake Bernstein. The book is jargon-free and presents complex ideas in a simple way. Worth the cost. One more book you may wish to consider, since it's loaded with real gems with regard to trading, is called "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre, first written in 1923 and detailing the trading of Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators who ever lived. Check it out.

  55. eToro is the #1 forex trading platform for beginning and full-time traders.