Thursday, December 16, 2010


Very nice rally in response to this morning's beatdown. Let's see if Blythe tries to hit us again on the Globex. Reader Jennifer in Colorado U.S. sent me this snapshot of today's action. Only a bald-faced EE attack can produce a gap on the chart, during the day, when there are no rumors or headlines to frighten.

The good news is that we've closed the gap as silver has traded back up to 28.95 and looks to move even higher. Also, someone yesterday gave me this link...said this guy's pretty good. So far, he's right!

OK, I hope that, by now, you've accepted the notion that the Evil Empire controls the daily action of gold and silver. Furthermore, now that I've made you aware of the almost daily assaults they make on overnight gains, you'll begin to watch the early morning NY trade for signals of their daily intent. Today brought us a particularly egregious attempt to smash price. Take a look at this one-minute chart:
I must ask, has anyone seen any negative-gold headlines in the past two hours? Its not a bond market or "risk off" problem, at least not yet. As I type, bonds are only down a couple of ticks and the stock market is flat. Could it be that the dollar is suddenly, sharply higher? No, that's not it, either. The USDX is actually down on the day. Hmmmm. Perplexing, isn't it?

Maybe, just maybe, Blythe is torching the metals for her own gain. The Death Star is smoking, folks. Its taking rounds and is wounded. To satisfy those December longs that are standing for delivery, the Comex is increasingly settling in cash. See Harvey for details. Blythe knows this can't continue! Let me ask you this: If you are still long some Dec10 and standing for delivery and Blythe comes to you and offers you cash settlement plus a hefty premium (bribe), why wouldn't you take the money and then take your proceeds and buy even more March11 contracts? Of course you would! You'd be foolish not to. Blythe know this so she must act NOW and crush the metals at all cost to dissuade folks from this trade. Get it?

Now, our BoS are not stupid and they will not fall for this bullshit. They are determined to buy metal and take delivery. I would expect them to put an end to Blythe's game shortly. Take a look at this:
This chart would seem to indicate that we are very close to the point where the BoS will put a stop to this nonsense and begin to drive prices right back up. Now look at silver:
Same deal. I liked this chart a lot more two days ago but, oh well, no real damage has been done. Again, I'd expect the BoS to step in very soon and stop the madness.

Alright, that's enough for now. Go buy yourself some coins to take advantage of today's "sale". I'll be here watching. A move in gold back up thru 1370-72 would be nice. In silver, a bounce back up to 28.80 or so would be a good sign. I'll keep you posted. In the meantime, watch this and relax. I see good things ahead for you and I.


  1. Holding on with both hands...backin up the truck!

  2. This is not over. Tomorrow 135x. And not the higher. OE. Rinse and repeat.

    With POMOs nobody sane fights the fed. Ok.
    But why OE after OE PM-bulls run into the same trap??? I just don't get it.
    These are repeating patterns - why not finally start make money out of it?

    Guess indexes will make new highs again - that will be the next round of shorts - at least for me. DYOD

  3. Indexes: either new highs - or test yesterdays highs. Tomorrow the same as today. R & R

  4. Looking for a good entry point For QNMNF and AEM.

    Just finished the conference call from AEM.
    You can also hear it re broadcast by going to the AEM webpage. Outstanding stuff!

    This is a gift! Take advantage of it.

    Vamos a compar PLATA!

  5. And instead of "Shenanigans" - thanks Blythe, nice and predictable Lady! Looking forward to tomorrow and the next OEs. :)

  6. Remember the KWN article that JPM is a rigger in both Gold/Silver and bond market? This is JPM fighting for life as bond market is crashing and they are being killed on both fronts. They are trying to attack PMs, hoping bond holders have one less reason to dump the bonds to go into the PMs.

    Gold has hit key 50DMA while Silver 20DMA. They both rallied back in the past along the way. Let's see if they do the same this time around. We know JPM is desperate now.

  7. Reckon we're looking at the death throws of the price surpression scheme right now. Im a buyer at $1364 and if it drops I'm buying more,

  8. Bought more First Majestic (NYSE: AG, just listed) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). Got a nice 5+ percent discount on the pullback.

  9. TF, And the crew. I'm I seeing a breakout point failure in the DXY?

    Seems like it can't bust through resistance.

  10. TLT is about to have 50DMA death-cross 200DMA, and that's why EE is so desperate to attack gold and silver. It may take a little back and force for the down trend on bond to establish.

  11. And the 30-year is struggling to hang on to 119.

  12. Anyone notice how quickly the silver price rebounds on these attacks? That NEVER used to happen before. That's encouraging, IMO.

    Bay of Pigs

  13. I have a question...

    I'm not an investor, and only recently becoming interested in understanding the machinations of our financial system. I have been buying some silver...

    Now, I just finished Matt Taibbi's book Griftopia, which has a chapter dealing with the commodities bubble. He attributes the $150/barrel oil prices we saw primarily to speculation in the futures market, with most of the speculative dollars coming from commodity index funds being marketed to everyday investors, including pension funds. So the problem was that the price was going up not because of increasing demand but because of this flood of people betting the price would go up.

    So, my question is, isn't that what's happening in PMs? Isn't there a risk that once people drop their GLD and SLV shares and get out of commodity indexes or whatever... that that demand will never come back for the physical metal. Is it different this time? Have we not reached that stage for PMs?

  14. Answered my own question.

  15. Dylan,

    "Now, I just finished Matt Taibbi's book Griftopia, which has a chapter dealing with the commodities bubble. He attributes the $150/barrel oil prices we saw primarily to speculation in the futures market, ""

    While I like Matt's attack on Golden sack-of-shit he lacks basic understanding of fiat currency. Speculation yes some.

    But.....the US dollar DXY, is the real reason for the "bubble" in all hard asscets.

    To understand more maybe read the fantastic book, The Creature from Jekylll Island.

    Visit and

    Which is where our fearless leader the turd-a-nator came from.

    Ask yourself this. If you had a choice of $50000.00 in USD or gold coins which were put in a lockbox that you could not have
    For five years. Which would you choose?

  16. Oil is, but Silver and Gold are money, not "Commodities".

    GLD and SLV are paper based scams designed to divert people from owing real Gold and Silver. Stay away. As Oliva says:

  17. Heat, thx for the reply.

    I understand the fiat currency issue and I also came from ZH. I guess I'm just trying to understand the effect of these Wall Street commodity investment vehicles on prices. Some people talk about them being instruments of price suppression, but it seems like it would be the opposite–that they would cause a constant supply of "longs" on the futures market that would drive up the nominal price, and that they're at least part of the that prices have been going up. And I understand that governments have an interest in keeping the price down. Just trying to wrap my head around the forces at play here.

    Thanks again to you and Turd for sharing your insights. (I'm still buying)

  18. Miners will make lower lows tomorrow.
    HUI 545 minimum.

  19. Turd,

    I know your a frequent reader of Harvey Organs blog (which Im new to). Do you know why he lumps banks, EE, etc into the "Commercial" category in his COT commentary?

    Based on the CTFC notes, wouldn't banks be large speculators?

    Also, the CTFC report has 5 categories: Producer/User, Swap Dealer, Managed Money, Other and the implied "Small Speculator". Why do we change this format into Large Spec, Com, and Small Spec?

  20. Theos: Great question. I'll try to answer.
    The bullion banks are not classified as specs because their "role" is to help mining companies hedge and/or sell forward their production. Thus the "commercial" classification.
    I think P/U and Swap Dealers are Com. Mgd Money and other are Large Spec. Harvey is just condensing the data into 3 categories instead of 5.

  21. "As noted above, only a decisive move through 1370 and a daily close below there would be cause for concern and even if that were to come to pass, it only means that 1350 may be in the cards. No big deal and a terrific buying opportunity should that happen."
    Bounced off 1362 so far today.....
    Turd, think there's anymore meat on the downside bone tomorrow?

  22. belling: $1360 should be rock-solid support. I have a real hard time believing that, absent major issues, the BoS won't hold that line. If Blythe gets through there maybe, maybe 1355, but man its hard to see it making much lower than that.

  23. Thanks Turd - I was able to calculate Harveys "Commercial short" equal to: P/U Short + Swap Short + Swap Spreading.

    However, reading his commentary, referring to the commercial short change:

    "Our hero bankers, JPMorgan and HSBC who have been perennially short did not like the looks of a rising silver price and they lessened their shorts by 1491 contracts."

    He seams to imply that Com shorts (78k) = "bank shorts". That doesn't seem correct. The Bank Participation Report claims about 26k contracts short. I know we're missing the entire OTC market. Do we have any idea what the ee short position really is all said and done?

  24. Question for AGoldhamster: Any chance you would care to elaborate on your viewpoints? Notionally, I'm with you at the moment, as it seems like volumes are too light to cause any real comeback in the price, and the 'EE' are firmly in control. Anyways, I'd love to hear your further thoughts, as you contrast the prevailing opinion on this blog very nicely. I mean no offense to TF and the rest of the crew by that! I'm still very (by my meagre standards) long PMs, but I have taken a beating lately trying to be smart and can't really afford another wrong move!

  25. Spreadsheet Update, lowest COMEX inventory I have ever seen..

    Click Here

  26. Thanks JPM!!! Bought 20 .1 oz gold eagles and 100 silver maples today. Looking for one more nice correction to add to my position before the fireworks begin. Blythe may be Cruella DeVille, but every month she drags this game out is another month I can add to my position.

  27. Good buying towards the close in GDX/HUI ... whether it is enough?
    Favoring a slightly higher open tomorrow.
    Often a trap, especially on Fridays. As the selloff on Fridays come later in thinner markets.
    Though right now not enough "footprints" to set up any bets. Hence I'm flat overnight, except a few small index shorts - not to fall asleep.
    Turd should have a somewhat good night!

    Fiends' Brave Victim: go to my blog, there you will find my views. It won't be fair to Turd to slam his blog with my views. I just occasionally come here - if I think I have something important to share.
    In general I share Turds views - seems that we just have different views right now ahead of the OEs. But not much difference. As obviously we see the same support levels.

  28. Thanks AGold hamster, can you point me towards your blog please?

    Oh by the way, I've yet to see it pointed out yet here---from Metropole Cafe's Midas report:

    JUST in after the stock market close:

    "Margins on the Comex for silver are being raised effective tomorrow to $10,463 and $7,750.

    ONCE AGAIN, they are raising margins AFTER the price has been clocked. This pitiful move really suggests The Gold Cartel is getting desperate, and further strengthens the notion that panic in the silver market is not far off."

  29. Fred said,

    'ONCE AGAIN, they are raising margins AFTER the price has been clocked. This pitiful move really suggests The Gold Cartel is getting desperate, and further strengthens the notion that panic in the silver market is not far off."

    Very good analysis! The Hamster is also giving us real pearls!

    Man I love this place!

    I must add this. CALIFORNICATION IS COMING!!!

    After the congress gets in there will be WAR
    (Fake) over the bailout that will be needed.

    The Republicrats and Demo-cans (Think Coke or Pepsi) have a fake food fight over the bailout of Californication they will cave and blast out spending AGAIN!

    The Muni chart is dead man walking.

    So......have the fundamentals changed?

    Hell no! Remember this is really and mind game. Take the RED pill and do not drink the Koolaid!

    Do not take your eyes off the prize.