Well, nothing that has taken place this morning should come as a surprise to regular visitors to Turd's World. As mentioned yesterday, Blythe did indeed attack early this morning, early enough that she could "call it a day" before 9:00 am and head out for some last-minute shopping. If you think I'm joking, consider that, as I type, crude oil is up 0.02, the grains were unchanged overnight, the dollar and the stock market are flat yet
gold is down $12.70 and silver is down 0.32. Its so utterly predictable that I must admit I find myself chuckling at the absurdity of it all. Here's what it looks like, in visual form:
All I can say is "whatever". There's almost a kind of arbitrage that will now take place as we go through the morning. Since the EE has artificially depressed price, you'll most likely see prices drift higher going forward. If I had to guess, we'll probably finish at about $1380 and $29.25.
Lastly, Trader Dan has again written a terrific piece on the demons at the Federal Reserve and the long-term painful effects their foolish policies are going to have on regular, everyday folks. As you know, that's a major theme of this blog, too, so I implore you to take time to read this today:
http://jsmineset.com/2010/12/22/trader-dan-comments-on-todays-commodity-market-action/
I'll keep an eye on things and update again later.
We will have a very merry christmas at my house thanks to Mr. Ferguson's wisdom. Gracias amigo.
ReplyDeleteMy Christmas wish for the Turd: Mrs. Ferguson, after many egg-nogs, decides to give you a "celebrity exemption", if you know what I mean and I think you do. Then in March, as silver crests the 40$ mark, you make an appearance on CNBC where backstage, Mandy turns you into her own personal Turdsicle. Happy holidays.
Silver is trading very bullish!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like it's building a springboard to a higher high and lower low ramp up.
Yes even though silvers down for the day, with some huge volume sell orders just before 10.00 I'm liking the support at $29. Turd may well be right about higher support levels visible over the last few weeks. I'd put $28.80 as main support but $29 suits me fine too
ReplyDeletethe fight back has started
ReplyDeleteTurd, many thanks for both the site and your shared wisdom. I wish you and your family a joyous Christmas/December 25th/whatever you are having yourself.
And a happy Christmas/December 25th/whatever you are having yourself to all users and commentators on here.
This is ridiculous. They don't even try to hide it; I guess that would mean a little extra work. I can set my watch by it.
ReplyDeleteLike hammy says, use it. I bought GDXJ pre-market at 37.67, and just sold 80% of it at 38.37. Enough of a profit to go buy a few guns.
ReplyDeleteHa, six hours of beatdown reversed in less than 50 minutes - I like they way that looks!
ReplyDeleteSo whats going on with PSLV? The silver spot price since the open on Tuesday till now Thursday morning has fell perhaps 0.25% campared to the +3% of PSLV! This seems to be approximately a +10X leveredge! The other silver ETFs (eg. SVR SIVR) don't seem to be moving like this.
ReplyDeleteWow, very nice 20 cent POP!!!
ReplyDeleteSomeone's covering their shorts.
ReplyDeleteYep, I may get two pair of drawers for Christmas if this keeps up! JD
ReplyDeleteThe real reason the Fed is buying $100 billion plus a month in QE2 is not to "stimulate the economy". It is simply, that there are not enough buyers showing up to buy our debt. Not only do we have old debt rolling over every week that needs to be reissued, but the US is currently running at about a $1 trillion budget defict which needs MORE debt to be financed! If the Fed was not purchasing our own debt, the rates would skyrocket as there would not be enough bidders for ten year treasuries yielding 3.39 percent currently. This would really implode our economy if rates like doubled, imagine how well houses would sell at 9 or 10 percent interest rates..
ReplyDeleteMaybe somebody who knows these markets better than I do can explain what Blythe is trying to accomplish with these "Silver V" (or, as Turd so aptly calls them, "FUBM") formations?
ReplyDeleteShe's not an idiot. She knows the smart money is laying in wait and each raid is going to met with a flurry of buying.
Is she thinking that without these constant beatdowns and bouncebacks, the spot price is going to get out of control and catch the attention of the NFLX momo crowd? Is she so locked in on the London PM fix that she doesn't care what happens between 10:00am and noon EST? Is she just spitting into the wind knowing that the Day of Reckoning is at hand?
I don't get it.
This is almost like daily scalp clockwork. HOHOHO. Completely lawless BS.
ReplyDeleteCo Dan
ReplyDeleteSimple, she is backed into a corner.
She is a captive to her own /EE plan which has failed. You are seeing the death dance.
...in the same boat as Lee. What's up with the PSLV vs SLV difference in performace the last couple of days?
ReplyDeleteI too have been killed by PSLV underperforming SLV. It was trading at a 13 percent premium to the net asset value, they are are letting the air out of the balloon. Still, I'm never going back to SLV, after I learned that the Custodian is JP Morgan, and after I read the prospectus that their bars of silver can be held in allocated and UNALLOCATED accounts. If spot silver is trading at $50 to $100 within 12 months, it won't have made much difference. And you might be GLAD you are in PSLV if TSHTF and JP Morgan and SLV are exposed for what they really are..
ReplyDeleteI hear ya, sassballs. thanks
ReplyDeleteNot to derail the the topic as I love watching the War on PM's
ReplyDeleteBut time for some serious homework... Maybe it's the solution??
http://www.republicoftheunitedstates.org/
"What's up with the PSLV vs SLV difference in performace the last couple of days?"
ReplyDeleteThere is a huge short interest in PLSV -- recently up over 500%. The short interest in SLV is DOWN 32% over the same period. My take: the criminals are trying to beat down PLSV to discourage investors while propping up their ponzi SLV fund.
data source: http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=pslv&submit=Short+Quote%99
During Christmas closure, US markets are not trading. So I think silver and gold will drift higher due to lack of EE intervention. Everyone in agreement?
ReplyDeleteIn case some of you are interested in my silver spreadsheet, I'm up to 11 days of data now, and keep it updated daily:
ReplyDeleteClick Here for Spreadsheet
@countermeasures
ReplyDeleteAsian markets will be open, but if they hold to form it'll be a slow drift up.
Gold and silver are tightening up their ranges, when they pick a way to go it'll be big.
With energy and inflation expectations on the up, it's hard to see the PMs break down.
But you never know, so I'm staying nimble.
@countermeasure -- Simple-minded analysis from a non-techie: BoS thrives in high volume as it allows them to purchase physical without spiking the price. EE thrives in low volume because they can manipulate the price with less effort.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing the lower volume of the holidays will create a slight drift lower because we're on the EE's "home turf".
Just one opinion...
Countermeasure, it has espoused here and elsewhere that EE has monkeys in all markets, so as to be able to strike anytime anywhere.
ReplyDeleteAnd also so if there ever are limits enforced they have other entities to do their evil bidding.
PSLV is a major threat to the ponzi...MAJOR...because it backs the fund with physical....they are trying to kick you out of it with the short position ...its hilarious....just take advantage of the game...I did between a friend of mine and myself we have purchased 50K oz of silver in the past 2 days through PSLV can you imagine the retail effect of those purchases being multiplied by thousands.....YOU GUYS can make a difference as Harvey and Turd say ..buy the PSLV not the slv
ReplyDeleteDear kliguy38, I totally agree. I have over 20,000 shares of PSLV, and what I do is every payday, anything over $5,000 in checking gets sent to my broker. Let's say I send $250, that would allow me to buy 19 more shares at the present price of $12.63. Every share is a dagger in the heart of JP Morgan and the whole Ponzi. I'm going to keep this up as long as I'm employed and have excess cash flow..
ReplyDeleteCL is a rip today... Blew right past 91.17, paused a bit, then shot up to 91.60. Ouch for the USA.
ReplyDeletePat, Almost sounds like guerilla warfare. If EE has global entities as fronts, then we should deduce BoS has similar entities globally to do their bidding.
ReplyDeleteFrom reading KingWorld News, BoS had a mole in London fix and raided the vault(unconfirmed). Further, BoS now measures their wealth in gold to fiat exchange rate (unconfirmed). Combined with US's effort to export inflation to China via currency peg, I would think China would try to get out of their excess depreciating dollar reserve and therefore lead BoS should be China.
Yeah the 13% premium of PSLV seems to give them a lot of wiggle room. At the same time I am assuming they do have some fixed costs that the premium has to cover. Well anyway, hopefully some folks were able to get in at the discounted price.
ReplyDeleteCrude is blowing up today!
ReplyDeletePSLV is a closed end fund. Buying PSLV does not purchase ANY silver on the market.
ReplyDeleteHowever if the premium gets high and Sprot thinks he can get more physical silver they will offer more PSLV units trashing the margin and then taking more silver off the market. I've switched from PSLV to PHYS as the 13% premium in PSLV is just too tempting for Sprot to issue more units against. In PHYS the premium seems to have settled under 4%, I expect PSLV to eventually settle there as well.
If we see significant decoupling between actual physical deliverable silver and the paper futures siivler market then it becomes real hard to calculate and actual premium for PSLV.
This same dance played out on PHYS and I got burned by the sudden premium drop.
BoS is sticking it to BM today.
ReplyDeletePHYS is a gold trust, not a silver trust. Yes the premium is much less. But I still prefer to be in silver, not gold, as the long term price suppression of silver (see graph below for price history since 1970) has been astronomical..
ReplyDeleteclick here for chart
Paul, thanks for the concise overview.
ReplyDeletesassballs, gold has many unique edges over silver however.
ReplyDeleteSo I prefer to be in both. But hell, as long as we aren't in fiat no matter bro.
If physical silver is selling for twice the COMEX price of paper silver, something would be seriously wrong. Like there is no silver at SLV! At that point, owning PSLV would be golden, in that the Net Asset Value would be based on actual physical..
ReplyDeleteJust a quick not on PSLV and SLV...
ReplyDeleteI don't think there's really anything nefarious behind their movements. To me, days where PSLV underperforms are simply a reflection of arb-chasing algos trading off of the premium to NAV. The short position is essentially a longer-term trade looking for a collapse of the premium over time. A foolish trade, for sure, but a trade some are making nonetheless. I'm probably wrong but thats what I think.
Because of the premium, I wouldn't use PSLV as a trading proxy for silver, either. The premium almost assures that it will underperform SLV day-to-day. Everyone should know that I believe SLV to be a complete sham and NO ONE should hold it as a long-term investment, expecting physical. However, as a day-to-day trading vehicle, its perfectly fine.
If you are buying an ETF to hold long-term, however, by all means own PSLV. Leave SLV to the foolish masses.
Paul Breed, you are spot on. I learned that expensive lesson a few months ago with GTU. JD
ReplyDeleteWhat about SIVR? Does this trust also hold physical silver? The price of SIVR seems to coincide with the spot price of silver at this point in time.
ReplyDeletesass I agree I'd rather be in silver than gold, and I expect to get back in to PSLV when the premium adjusts. Like all things there is a risk that I could miss the big run by being in PHYS and not PSLV.
ReplyDeleteLook. The in ground ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17 to 1. Silver has many and growing industrial uses. It's also used as money historically and in some small parts of the world currently. Above ground bullion gold to silver is one to one. Above ground total stocks are 5 to 1. Silver should be selling for absolutely no worse than 17 to 1 ratio to gold. If gold goes to $2,500 per ounce in the next couple of years (not unthinkable) the price of silver should be $2,500 / 17 or $147 an ounce. It may overshoot this ratio. Believe me, I would love to own a no premium ETF like SLV, rather than PSLV, but I have NO faith in SLV with JP Morgan as the custodian. So I will keep accumulating in PSLV. If silver goes where I think it's going, it won't bother me to have paid a 10 to 12 percent premium along the way. That's an investor's mentality. I wouldn't trade silver. Why not? The beta is way too low - I would rather trade AAPL or GOOG or whatever.
ReplyDeleteThe long term suppression of the price of silver has led to the complete waste of this valuable asset. It was under $5 an ounce for a long, long time. Photographic negatives and processing used up a lot of silver over the years. Governments had billions of ounces in their vaults, but almost none of this is left. Even at $29 an ounce, the price of silver is being suppressed WAY below what it is really worth in fiat dollars. The longer this goes on, the higher the rocket shoot will be. It's physical properties make it irreplaceable for many industrial applications. JPM has 20+ lawsuits filed against it for illegal manipulation and price suppression. With what Andrew Maguire demonstrated, they can't possibly win in a court fight. I'm beginning to believe that SLV does not really have 350MM ounces in its vaults, free and unemcumbered. They may be able to list 350MM ounces worth of bars, but how many times over have these been sold, leased, lent, whatever? It's JP Morgan that is the Custodian!! I guess you can all figure out that I am a silverbug, and I've been accumulating and will hold for a long time, at least until silver is well over a $100 an ounce..
ReplyDelete