Thursday, December 16, 2010

The Wicked Witch of New York

Blythe attacked early and often today. I'm happy to say that we survived her brutal onslaught, fallen back and we have appeared to re-group for a Friday counter-attack. I must give credit where credit is due: reader AGoldHamster has been all over this correction. Be sure to look for his comments.

After observing the metals markets for years, I've noticed that weekly gains are often made early in the week and selling usually occurs later in the week. The pattern repeats so frequently that I began to wonder if it was not coincidence. Then, the proverbial light bulb was lit and I finally connected the dots. The Evil Empire is trying to hide their malicious intent from the weekly Commitment of Traders report! As you likely know by now, the CoT comes out every Friday but it is basis the previous Tuesday. So, any new short positions initiated by the EE yesterday and today will not show up on the CoT until next Friday. That also means that the EE has until next Tuesday to cover any brand new shorts they just initiated if their raids fail. So...down go metals mid-late week on fresh paper-metal selling; up go metals early the following week if shenanigans fail and shorts are covered before new CoT survey. Below is a 12-hour gold chart that dates back to October. I admit that it proves nothing however, it should certainly give you something to consider.
Below are three charts to help with your fortitude overnight. First, lets look at gold which, tonight, rests squarely upon its 50-day moving average at 1370. Can it go lower? Sure. Will it? I doubt it.
Here's the same 12-hour silver picture I've posted lots of times. Notice how it is still about $2 above its 50-day and, further, notice what should be rock-solid buying support around $28. With a last of 28.93 as I type, silver still looks very, very good.
Lastly, for a treat, here's a little HUI for ya. In case you don't know, the HUI is an index of mining shares. You'll notice that the chart resembles the actual metal charts. Also notice that we are at a pretty nice spot on the chart for you to add to or initiate positions. This chart is basis yesterday's close and we stand tonight at about 558. We'd have to see this index move down through 545 and 540 before I'd start to think that a significant correction was upon us.
OK, that's it for now. I'll probably add more this evening after I get a chance to see what Harvey thinks.

43 comments:

  1. Gold to silver ratio now down to 47. If that isn't a proof of silver strength, I don't know what it is.

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  2. News just in from Metropole Cafe:

    JUST in after the stock market close:

    "Margins on the Comex for silver are being raised effective tomorrow to $10,463 and $7,750.

    ONCE AGAIN, they are raising margins AFTER the price has been clocked. This pitiful move really suggests The Gold Cartel is getting desperate, and further strengthens the notion that panic in the silver market is not far off."

    Apologies if it has already been mentioned!

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  3. Thanks for the news there FBV. Yea they are hurting man. Looking forward to Harveys take on the CFTC meeting today.

    Just went to a local shop and picked up 21 one ounce buffalos and a cool little 10 ounce engelhard bar! Thanks for the dip Blythe!

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  4. The Crimes scenes established,suspects collared,evidence in ..... jury rigged,case dismissed.Whatever anyone thinks to many mines in the minefield waiting to go off,one day soon the EE will find the carpets to big to cover the problems.Bonds is the real biggie at the moment.

    Stay lucky,Buy Silver,take down a bank,its a Patriotic duty.

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  5. Ladies and Gents,
    This correction in PMs could take a month to play out.
    This is a necessary correction where support levels must be tested to ensure solid forward momentum. Hold your buying until $1,330/oz.
    Note: $1365 is already been breached and we are now undergoing a small dead cat bounce. Selling will resume tomorrow.
    Just helping.

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  6. Ed Steer of Casey Research has often surmised that 'da boys' may have a way of hiding actions taken just prior to the cutoff on Tuesday - or at least a way of pushing them in to the following week for COT purposes.

    This could explain why Tuesday is often the craziest day of the week as well as host of the most brutal hammerings like the one on 7DEC.

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  7. More detail on the margin hikes:

    For speculators in the main Comex silver futures contract, the “initial” margin was increased to $10,463 from $9,788. The margin for hedgers and the “maintenance” margin for speculative accounts were upped to $7,750 from $7,250.

    These are small percentage increases compared to the most recent ones.

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  8. Turd,

    Could you supply a chart for silver like the one you did for gold with the Tuesday/Wed peaks?

    That's a remarable chart; predictable cycles seem to be appearing.

    I wonder if it is interesting to mark the dates of margin requirement increases as well. I suspect we might see that the margin requirement increases come at predictable points in declines.

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  9. If the game stays true to form then this down move cannot last too long...BoS and investors are buying bullion in these dips. IF true and I know I did.....then as discussed previously these moves expose them to severe bullion leaks everytime they do it.....sure.. they get to cover the short position but at what expense. The comex is a dead man walking. Should be interesting.

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  10. +1 Cris. Also noted that the biggest peaks in silver occurred 6-7 of Nov & Dec. Almost like a Swiss watch. Anyway, added 500 silver maples today. More dips please.

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  11. A question on the ASIAN BOS in the LME market: Do they have to pay VAT over there in London whole sale market?

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  12. Blythe isn't wicked at all. She's doing us all a favor by making it possible for us to buy physical at bargain prices. If it wasn't for Blythe, many of us would not be able afford silver and we'd be stuck holding dollars, bonds and stocks.

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  13. Rui,
    In LME, VAT on Ag, not Au.

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  14. Turd, was your gold chart constructed using simple moving averages, or exponential moving averages?

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  15. Thanx for the answer, flowers.

    It then brings the 2nd question about the motives on Asian BOS: Why do they buy Silver from @LME that charges the goofy VAT? They could just come to CRIMEX and squeeze the heck out of the place. Is paying LME VAT to get physical silver really worth it?

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  16. Every 2 weeks, a peak & then a takedown. Mmmh? Clockwork.

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  17. Peaks + takedowns = milk the loose hands

    Now that the hands have firmer grips, Blythe shakes harder by hiking COMEX margins at just the right time. COMEX, like Congress, is bought and paid for.

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  18. No VAT on exports as far as I know. This applies to anyone visiting Euroland and leaving with gifts /assets. make sure to keep the receipts for everything you buy exclusive of service related stuff and you get a VAT refund in cash on departure.

    -beastie

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  19. Turd, this article from a contributor at seeking alpha goes quite along with your assessment.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/241902-figuring-the-best-day-to-buy-silver?

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  20. Nice to see the metals perking up this evening. "Sell the rumor. Buy the news?"

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  21. Check out Franklin: http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

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  22. Turd,
    I am hoping you can help us decipher Harvey's entry for today.
    Don't know what the status is of the roughly 4% of annual production position limit he refers to.
    Then he refers to a letter from Senator Harken, but can't see where that is. Then he makes a reference to JPM lying to the CFTC?

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  23. Pennant pattern formed and heading for a breakout. be prepared.

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  24. This nightly $0.15-$0.20 pop from our Asian friends has been almost as dependable as Blythe's pre-dawn raids of late.

    Running a bit hot tonight...

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  26. RoCoach, if you dig a bit deeper into Sander's site, you'll find another site of his. Good basic info, even for seasoned traders/investors.

    www.the-moneychanger.com

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  27. I'm astounded that some of you are just now discovering "The Money Changer"...Franklin Sanders...this fine gentleman is a good ol' metals boy with tons of smarts and experience...well shucks, better late than never...he may not always be correct, but will rarely steer you wrong...when you compile all the info from the experiences of T.Ferguson and throw in a dash of Turk etc.etc. you will find at the end of the day that you have one hell of a stew!

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  28. deepsouthtrader: ...and a lovely pennant it is. A solid push to 30 will break us out!

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  29. LOL dd - trying to, getting the "slide" page ("someone is shorting silver futures"). . .

    now ya got me all excited - sounds like news!

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  30. What happened to the Hedge???

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  31. dd: site servers are overloaded. What's up?

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  32. I'm using: 188.126.66.68 and 188.126.66.66

    and getting in - see if that works?

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  33. Thanks, Aura. That worked. Nothing is unusual.
    What is dd all worked up about?

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  34. ha, thanks back atcha Turd - I've been scanning the posts, don't see anything that might be noteworthy - thought maybe it was just my lack of "trader nous" impeding awareness - now I don't feel so dim! *phew*

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  35. Just wanted you guys to catch the pic on the landing page...classic. Silver not doing too bad either.

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  36. Sorry if I got anyone worked up for nothing. Ok, back to more serious issues....

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  37. There is something wrong with the DNS server references. The IP address works, but the name is gone.

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  38. I am guessing Sacrilege is working on the main server(s), while a smaller (backup) system keeps the site up. The sitename redirects to the 'please wait' page until the server(s) able to handle the standard Thu evening traffic are back up. Or he tried to implement the 'minor' modification again that took the site down the last time, and he is still having trouble with it. Either way, the 'Cave' picture with a (reasonably) current message suggests a temporary issue. Last few times they were still shorting EUR futures (I think).

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  39. ZH has gone to .org, they sent me an email.

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  41. Turd,
    Thanks for the link. I noticed Nov-9th and Dec-7th are marked as days of peak on the 12-hour gold chart there. May I point that these two days are when the peak was hit and followed immediately by severe raids during the same day, which changed the trend downward for a while.

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