Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Here Comes The Fun...

And I say, it's alright.

Oh man, what a fantastic day. We speculated last night that gold would tap 1400 overnight. It hit 1398.30 before, again as predicted, it rolled back and tested the 1385 area. Turd's Crystal Ball was equally accurate in silver as it nailed some buystops overnight and rolled right up to 29 before pulling back to the (now) support area around 28. Once that was all accomplished, the metals consolidated and pushed back higher. In fact, they both closed above the significant levels we've been discussing. March11 silver needed to close above 28.24 and it did it, closing at 28.42. Feb11 gold needed to close above 1385 and it made it, too, closing at 1389.20. Gold even withstood a last second EE barrage. See the chart below:
You don't think Blythe isn't looking at the same things we are? Think again. She knows that the close through 1385 is going to set off some buy-side algos tomorrow and she took a stab at preventing it. No such luck. HAHAHAHAHA!

So, where do we go from here? In a word: UP!
The charts look terrific and there's $17B in POMO still to come this week.

Below is the current, 3-hour Feb11 gold chart:
Blythe and The Flying Monkeys are definitely going to try to stop gold somewhere between 1412 and 1426. Of that you can be sure. However, you can also be sure that we will move into that zone as early as tomorrow, as late as Friday. Gold is going higher right now.

Now, take a look at this March11 silver chart. This chart is even more simple and clear.
From the looks of it, silver should immediately trade back up to 28.99 which is the closing high from 11/9/10. Above 29, the EE will be waiting to desperately attempt a double-top paint job between 29 and 29.41, the old intraday high of 11/9/10.

Will it work? Maybe. I don't know. Who knows? Who cares? It may work for a day or a few days but not much longer than that, if it works at all. Silver is headed much, much higher. Probably 33-35 before consolidating and pulling back again. Review this if you need a refresher:

Lastly, though I expect the PMs to stage these rallies tonight, tomorrow and Friday, don't forget that we get our monthly BLS BS number on Friday at 8:30 EST. Do not be surprised if this disgustingly manipulated, government-issued, economic metric isn't massaged to reflect a "surprisingly positive" jobs summary. The BLS BS report of 12/09 was the "green shoot" used by CNBS et al to concoct the whole "Recovery 2010" nonsense exactly a year ago. And, yes, they do think you're stupid enough to fall for that line of crap again.

I'll try to check in again this evening. Until then, any extra thoughts I have will get placed in the "comments" section of this note. Thanks for reading. TF


  1. Nice update Turd. Jesse has a decent chart update as well looks like a whole bunch of different angles all lining up for $31 on silver short term, Jesse has been calling $1475 for gold for some time as the completion of a large weekly cup & handle pattern. The weeks price action may drift but know this, some key levels have been hit this week and this bodes well for both silver and gold.

  2. Some wisdom from Santa himself:

  3. When its knocked down its buying time.Prices on the net of physical very healthy appears more buyers than sellers as more people protect their wealth and get rid of fiat.Interesting times.

  4. My local silver shop said they would sell me 32 2010 silver eagles for $1,000.00 out the door. That makes them $31.25 a piece. He also said that they buy back at $3 below spot unless I show them my receipt that I bought from there, then they will go higher. (Not that I'm planning to sell them back, I was just curious) Is this a good deal based on spot price right now? Sorry, I'm a noob when it comes to buying physical metal and I respect the opinions shared here.

  5. I cant wait! Time to buy even more silver!

  6. $3 over spot for ASEs seems to be the going rate. Though I do own some I find them kind of pricey personally. I much prefer buying larger quantities like 100oz bars where you only pay $0.50-$0.60 over spot.

  7. Damn Monkeys....

    Cover me when I run
    Cover me through the fire
    Something knocked me out' the trees
    Now I'm on my knees
    Cover me, darling please
    Monkey, monkey, monkey
    Don't you know when you're going to shock the monkey

  8. Thanks Turd! Check out the quote....woozer, makes you think. We could be hours, days or just weeks away from boom.

    "Look at Harry (Schultz) dean of the whole bunch, he believes that when confidence falls, it falls instantaneously. It may be ebbing and flowing, ebbing and flowing, and than all of the sudden wham, it’s gone! And that will be both the dollar market and the gold market, and it will be in synch.”"

  9. I must now up my previous "Feed the Turd" donation...I feel ashamed for using such a resource for a lousy $10. More coming your way Turd today and in the coming months.

  10. All VERY good news! Thanks TF for the updates.

    Winning is fun!

  11. Alot of us did $10 dd ...As I can afford more I will definitely pay more. I think Turd understands that some of us are struggling to get as much silver as possible right now before it's 'too late' and he was very gracious about the amount no matter what the amount was!

  12. RightIsRight: I'm with you on the affordability part, but I still feel bad!

  13. Hey, hey , one should feel badly about anything. All "donations", regardless of size, are appreciated and respected. I don't ever want anyone to feel that they need to give more...or anything at all for that matter.
    I do this for fun and as a public service. Period.

    Thank you all very. very much for your support and for frequenting this site.

  14. Turd,
    What do you think of the view that, more and more, the COMEX is losing its power to be the price-setter for silver, and that the physical markets are taking over? See the article below, from which the following quote is copied:

    Our view: We believe there is a tectonic shift underway for silver. A shift of historic and generational proportions that is only just now starting to surface in a material way. We believe that global public demand for precious silver is once again returning the metal to its historic role as money – alongside its rarer cousin gold. We believe that the recent absence of concerted short selling is more likely a logical market reaction by hedgers and short sellers to the reality of much higher demand and the realization that existing and available supplies may not be sufficient to satisfy that burgeoning demand at current pricing.

  15. @Matt&Amp: that's a decent buy price but if you were to sell I recommend selling to Apmex. They buy generic gold & silver at spot and will pay a little above spot for things like eagles or any other popular minting.

  16. What I do not understand is why there is such a disconnect in physical vs futures pricing. Why not just hold futures for delivery if you can sell 1000 oz bars for .50 or .60 more than spot silver?

  17. GG,

    That is without a doubt what is going on. Where there is smoke, there is fire. I think Turd's calls are 100% correct and very conservative. If gold moves $100 in a DAY (as Sinclair thinks is coming), silver is moving in multiple dollars, not cents.

  18. Seems at this point the only thing they can do to bring down gold is...

    Squeeze the USD.

  19. Dave, that's not working either. We've had many up days in gold coincidental with up days in the dollar index. The only reason the dollar index has been going up is because the euro has been getting crushed on the bailout news. The euro comprises 56% of the weight of the index, so it's nearly always inversely correlated with the euro. People aren't flocking to USD over gold, gold is outperforming USD.

  20. Turd: This all seems to be moving much faster than anyone's predicted timeline. Although it's extremely nice to be on the right side of all of these moves, doesn't it concern everyone that this is really the canary in the mine and all the really, really bad things that have been discussed for so long are having their timelines shortened also? I almost feel like I'm the only guy in the neighborhood who has a bomb shelter. Who really wants to survive a nuclear holocost?

  21. I bought 40 oz of First Majestic coins at $29.50, just minutes before they raised their price to $29.80. That felt like a smart purchase.

    Turd, I am a late comer to PM's but I've been doing some hoarding of late. I appreciate your time and effort, and will make a donation to the Turd Fund just as silver goes up somewhere above $30/oz.

  22. Uh, I know turd isn't asking for anything but anyone who's ever sat opposite a dealer in a casino has tipped those dumbasses more in a couple of hours on a few lucky hits, which by the way, the dealer has absolutely no control over than most of you are owning up to. Just saying.

  23. Turd, Harvey Organ's latest:

    He suspects that Comex is not delivering Silver to longs standing for delivery:

    "...With only 34 notices sent down, one can only conclude that 15 million oz of silver were bought off with cash and a huge premium. These guys then entered the market and bought which will explain why the total open interest remained relatively the same as the day before.

    The payment of dollars for a silver or gold contract is totally forbidden by comex rules. However the USA do not pay attention to rules and they do whatever they like..."

    What are your thoughts on this?

  24. Turd,
    Why 33-35 before consolidating ?

  25. Lots of questions. I'll try to take them one by one.

    GG: What you wrote as "our view" could very well have been written by me as "my view". Nice work.

    Deep south: The answer lies in the margins and cash required to purchase quantity thru the Death Star. Most individual, physical holdings are in smaller quantity. Smaller quantity in anything almost always means higher markups.

    Dave: Good point but its not "bring gold down" its "contain gold".

    Igiveup: Yes, things are moving faster in some areas, not so fast in others. Gold vs the stock market, for example. The key is to understand what is, in fact, coming and prepare for it. Its why I started this whole blog deal three weeks ago. To do my part to spread what I believe to be true. I doubt any of us are going to get "rich" as this progresses, however, the goal is to not become destitute like so many others will.

    neil: Just a guess on my part, really. If you go back to the "Moron Silver" post, I was projecting that the next ramp up would take silver a similar % up as the past two ramps. That gave me somewhere between 33-35. I understand that that's not concrete advice but I hope that's not what you're looking for anyway. If we get to 33 as quickly as I suspect, I may use the strength to roll my March silver options into May.

  26. Everything looks great tonight. The short-term charts are terrific and both silver and gold are modestly higher as I type. Barring major news, I expect gold to approach 1400 again overnight and silver will trade back up near 29. Tomorrow should be a big day as momentum-based buyers flood the pits and $9B in POMO greases the skids. A $1410 close in gold and a $29+ close in silver are not only possible but likely.

    Have a great night.

  27. Great stuff Turd,

    Some of us who have seen the WORST of the JPM/COMEX bullshit for the last ten years know something IS very different now. There are HUGE problems that CANNOT be resolved without much higher gold/silver prices. It's that simple. Hang on everyone. Blast off looks imminent to this old vet...

  28. Great day indeed! I agree with Turd that we probably wont get rich. BUT we will hopefully maintain our purchasing power, when everyone else holding paper gets wiped out. That is my intention for holding physical, to have at least something for my pension.

    CD: Yes word is definitely getting around, although 95% of the people i discuss these things with still looks at me as i'm a nutter. They still believe the government is doing the right thing, and has absolute faith in paper money.

  29. I'd like to recommend this article. One of the best laydowns of how JPM & others manipulate the CRIMEX (with government backing).


    ‘Shock and Awe’ in Precious Metals

    by Jeff Nielson Wednesday, 01 December 2010

  30. Turd,

    When you are buying silver/gold do you stick with physical or to you typically buy etfs, stocks, or futures and why do you suggest whichever one?

  31. Deep: My puny IRA is completely non-diversified. I own the five miners I mentioned a couple of nights ago and that's it.

    I have my real fun at Lind-Waldock. In my account there I trade options on futures. Its very risky, very fun but not for everybody. Futures options will clean you out real quick if you get caught on the wrong side of your trades. The staff at Lind is always very friendly and helpful so, if you ever want to take a stab at it, I'd suggest you give them a call.

    The best strategy of all is simply to buy physical and take delivery. Whether in coins, bars, jewelry, whatever. If you own physical, Blythe can't bother you. She can flail away but the daily machinations of the PM markets will not matter. It all just becomes a rather entertaining form of theater.

  32. Thanks for the info turd. Very helpful as always.