Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Today's Action

"This week promises to be crazy. Be prepared for some wild price swings as the squeezing vise gets tighter and tighter on the Evil Empire. Can't wait for tomorrow."


First of all, I think its critical to remind you that I warned you of impending volatility last night. $20 drops in gold like we've seen in the past 90 minutes are to be expected. They should not cause panic.


After reaching $90.76 just about two hours ago, crude has rolled over and is down almost $2 from those highs. Predictably and just like yesterday, Blythe waited about 45 minutes and then ordered the monkeys to attack. Gold since plummeted from 1426 to 1407 in a little over an hour. So, what's next?


First up, gold should be very well bid by our BoS between 1400 and 1410. If 1400 fails, we could trade all the way back to 1390 before I would start getting interested/concerned. Two levels to watch from this point forward today:
1) We still need a daily DeathStar close above 1426 to confirm and continue the breakout above the old highs of last month.
2) Yesterday's low was $1409.80. A DS close below there would give us the dreaded "outside reversal day". The ORD is not a cause for panic. It would simply be a note of concern and it would be nullified if/when we move back through and close above today's high of 1432.50.


In silver, I'd expect a lot of bids between 29.50 and 30. I just flipped over to Lind-Waldock and I see that price bottomed a few minutes ago at 29.83 ands has since rebounded to 30.11. So far, so good. An ORD in silver would require a close below 29.48. Outside of Blythe changing the rules again or The Second Coming, I just don't see that happening today.


DO NOT forget that, as I type this, HellyBenny is in the process of off-loading about 8B in new POMO dollars directly to the PDs. That money will begin making its way into stocks, bonds and commodities later this morning so expect things to stabilize and head higher as the day goes along.


Keep the faith. Trading/watching the PMS is not for the faint of heart. All will be well.




11:45 EST UPDATE
Though clearly not out of the woods yet, we are recovering quite nicely from the raid.
Feb11 gold reached down to 1407.50 but has a last of 1416.60
March11 silver hit 29.83 but has a last of 30.22. This has got to have Blythe pissed off to no end. She's probably walking around screaming at people for no reason. "Where's my coffee?!?" "Who took my cigarettes?!?" "Somebody make me a protein shake. NOW!" My hope for The Monkeys is that she's not PMS-ing today on top of everything else.
Crude has stopped bleeding, too. Recovering back up to near 89.
The next 90 minutes will be telling. Let's watch and see what happens. 



1:10 EST UPDATE
Only 20 minutes until the Death Star closes for the day and everything from stocks to crude to gold is rallying. A green close in both gold and silver would be quite a nice little victory and it would completely ruin Blythe's day. She'll probably try to whack it one more time, however, to avoid this outcome. I'll update with summary on a new blog post sometime after the close.

27 comments:

  1. The Second Coming, lol.

    I would expect as the manipulation continues to weaken and break, the rebounds from sudden plunges will get even stronger. Okay, that's probably too Captain obvious but that would continue the pattern I've seen over the past couple of years.

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  2. Your words as usual are very calming...

    Any thoughts on Corn?

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  3. No, Jack, I hear ya.
    The trend is so strong and the fundos so incredible that EE interventions are going the way of BoJ interventions in the currency markets. They used to be effective and everyone was terrified of them, now their moves seem to have an effective life of about 6 hours.
    The game has changed. The jig is up. Its a brave new world.

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  4. dd: I still can't believe they blew a 17-point lead to Oklahoma but they really went downhill mid-season when their QB got hurt.

    Oh...you mean corn the grain...my bad.
    Corn and beans don't have the same current fundos as wheat but, that said, if it can get through 5.80, its headed back to 6.20.

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  5. "The game has changed. The jig is up. Its a brave new world."

    Be brave. Buy the dips!

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  6. hey turd do you ever check out

    http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

    he thinks an intermediate top is close at hand in PM

    I've read Gary a long time--he's pretty good

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  7. Man that was beat down, now its back up LOL I bet she is head deep in the toilet bowl! Nice Call turd

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  8. ZH is also reporting that the monkey brigade is at work: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cause-banging-close-so-2009

    I'm new to this, how can I see the individual bids and whether or not they get taken out?

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  9. Viking: Interesting point the guy makes. I would put more credence in them if the gold market was purely trading on technicals, which I have, on numerous occasions, stressed that it is not. I like how he slaps away the "whole squeeze JPM thing". This makes him sound like just another out-of-touch TA generalist looking to call a top.

    Mark: We can't. Its all part of the opaque nature of the Death Star that we all rail against. Trust me...the EE does look at the order books, though, and likes to pick moments of thin bid volume to stage a paper attack and momentarily overwhelm the bid. This is how you get $6 out in three minutes, like we saw today a couple of times.

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  10. Haha that reminds me of the Nazi Germany video that was posted on ZH yesterday. Hitler was Jamie Diamond of JPM and it showed the last few moments of JPM's solvency. They had noted the Blythe had failed, but it was ok cause they would hire her over at the IMF. Caption's were changed to tell the story, it was HILARIOUS!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/adolf-jamie-artists-impression-jpms-ceo-hearing-silver-trading-over-500

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  11. Mark: Here's your visual aid for today's shenanigans:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESI19h4wDo

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  12. Another run on all the commods a/o 12:10. Hang in there.

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  13. Hey Turd, Volume is extroardinarily high today, last I saw this was the day they jacked the margin's and everything fell through the floor. Is this a sign of anything? Avg Volume is 28M, and we are already at 35, something seems a little fishy...

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  14. Crazy really,trying to Hammer down G & S and realeasing QE which finds its way into the market.Economics of the mad house.Fed could send me a cheque and I,ll just put it into G & S,save them a lot of trouble.Top Blogg turd,keep the faith brother.

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  15. So who is Dorothy if the monkeys are in attack mode?

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  16. publiusnot:

    We are Dorothy, friendo!

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  17. I always kind of felt like the Scarecrow.
    Lots of heart, no brain.

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  18. Again and for emphasis:

    Everything is having a hard time rallying and staying up today. Even stocks. Don't freak out about the PMs. They can't go up every day. In fact, we wouldn't want them to. If they did, the EE would panic and enforce new, draconian scare tactics to control price. Days like today are no big deal. Let's see what tomorrow brings, and the Thursday, before we go getting all nervous about tops and corrections, blah, blah, blah.

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  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  20. Turd,

    Gary doesn't totally go on technicals--ive heard him say many times that PM technicals aren't that great

    he's more of a timing bander...

    would def. recommend keeping tabs on him as he has nailed many intermediate PM moves in last 4-5 years

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  21. After that dismal interview on sunday from The Bernank I expected an immediate upward price "correction" in both gold and silver far beyond what we saw yesterday. That anyone could watch that interview and come to the conclusion that one should keep their wealth in dollars is absolutely stunning.

    I don't claim to know what causes the price action day to day but any sort of downward pressure on gold and silver this week just doesn't feel right.

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  22. when are they gonna call these pricks naked short selling onto the carpet?! ever?!

    i mean seriously?!

    i understand buy everyone buying physical and insisting on delivery it squeezes the dirty whores. but man will it ever end?!

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  23. Midnight Metal Report
    Things are looking better for PMs than I thought at this stage. Silver is very strong, gold is strong, and platinum made a comeback, as I said it would previously (I hinted it would flash crash, which is common for platinum to do at least once daily-it did it twice today- even thought the second flash crash was not uniform).

    I still say we dive to support at $1400 during NY trading tomorrow, but...there are so many swans...the whiteness is blinding.

    http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/2010/12/midnight-metal-report.html

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  24. They bolted the wheels back on the America the Beautiful 5oz coin wagon. Must have melted down those seized liberty dollars.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704156304576003931976247962.html

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    ReplyDelete