Both of our metals performed admirably today. I must say that I am
very surprised that the EE was unable or unwilling to mount a successful raid today. Feel free to make any inference you'd like as to why they chose not to act. Personally, I feel that it only increases the likelihood of a raid tomorrow or Friday. Keep you gameface on!
I've always promised you full disclosure on my trades. I
did not get any fills today. The market makers are pumping premium into the out-of-the-money silver calls faster than they are putting it into the in-the-money calls.
Again, read into that what you will. At any rate, I stand currently with the exact same list of positions I've had for weeks. I'll be watching the action very closely overnight and tomorrow, however, as I still feel a tradable raid is imminent.
I'll close for now with these three charts. First, an 8-hour gold chart. I mistakenly wrote "daily" on it. This chart takes us back over the past 10 weeks or so. Looks very nice!
Next, here's a picture of today's action in silver. Note the aggressive buying of each dip. Blythe has to look at this and want to barf.
Lastly, here's an updated version of the 2-hour March11 USDX I've been posting this week. Note that we are still in the "umbrella". A break of 79.80 would almost certainly send us to near 79.
Gotta go! More later. TF
Thanks Turd for putting so much effort into your blog. I have vacation this week and it's a lot of fun watching the market in real time as things develop. Again, thanks for your insights.
ReplyDeleteTurd, any thoughts on PMs/GM up, while GDX/GDXJ flat to down - heavy distribution???
ReplyDeleteThanks jd
Trader Dan calls that the "ratio trade" where foolish money managers sell the miners and buy the futures.
ReplyDeleteThanks Turd - I need to do some research on the concept. jd
ReplyDeleteOur Asian buddies may kick Blythe's ass tonight if she doesn't take action soon.
ReplyDeleteI like that the dollar is weakening into the close.
ReplyDeleteJim Willie: Ultimate Cost Of 0% Money
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/dec292010.html
RobotTrader posted a useful link on ZH a while back -- you can look at PMs in various currencies side by side:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$SILVER:FXE,$SILVER:FXY,$SILVER:FXC,$SILVER:FXS,$SILVER:FXA,$SILVER:FXM,$SILVER:FXB,$SILVER:FXF|B
I think we will consolidate at $30 and $1400 in the next 24 hours. Then I think there will be a huge move up. Is there a full day of trading on Friday? The move up will take gold to $1440 and it will only take a couple of good days. Next weeks looks prime.
ReplyDeleteRe: Pairs trades
ReplyDeleteNothing better than a correlation trade using leverage. They are the weaks hands in this trade IMO. Someday in the future they will be required to cover the miner shorts and liquidate the futures. I would love nothing more than for a few funds to blow up using this flawed strategy.
Correct if I am wrong, but pairs trading killed LTCM.....right?
Jimi, thanks for reminding me.
ReplyDeleteFriday is regular Comex hours and a globex session that ends at 4:15 est.
Correct me if II'm wrong, but it looks like the EE tried some major raids today... knocking silver down 11 cents 2-3 times but those BOS stepped right in and brought it back up. It seems her raids are becoming less and less effective. What are the chances that raids will look like this from now on with only the big drops coming when the market has its natural adjustments as well? Am I being over-optimistic?
ReplyDeleteMiners are performing very well! These prices of silver are going to be reflected in Q4 Earnings reports for these miners that will come out in the New Year which should give full boost to these junior miners in my opinion!
ReplyDeleteI think Blythe did not attack because simply... she can not attack. We are at the moving average and there is to much support for the big buyers. Any major price movement down would cause a buying panic, resulting in the adverse effect that manipulation would try to do... She will wait for silver to get out of hand again before it gets knocked back down... I think we will ride to 31.50+ before we get an attempt at knocking it down .60 cents or so...
-
http://thehardrightedge.com
I have all investment advice and Ron Paul Revolution info available for convenient research!
-
Doing great Turd.
-
Scott J
Turd Last night when you mentioned you were looking for the usual hit this morning, my first thought was, on top of all the other problems they have ( BoS, lack of pysical at Comex, CFTC, ect) now they are facing a class action suit against SLV which specifically calls attention to their manipulation. The deck is getting stacked ever higher against them.
ReplyDeleteJeff or Turd, what do you think will happen with SLV? Wouldn't you think that with the lawsuit could cripple the stock? Or will that take time for the lawsuit to move through the courts? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteTrade idea: Buy call options on various silver and gold ETFs when we know EE is going to attack. However, I've yet to figure out how to trade options before stock market opens.
ReplyDeleteEither that, or buy a straddle at previous day's close.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@countermeasure -- you must be looking at the end of 2011. Friday is 12/31 in 2010, 1/3/2011 is Monday (this coming Monday).
ReplyDeleteSweet, the Silver Ninja is making its move under the cover of darkness - started about 10:20 tonight. Tomorrow will be very interesting! jd
ReplyDeleteMay I express some irratinal exuberance? $30.70 at 9:35 CST. Blue sky from here.
ReplyDelete