Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Watching Gold

I'm getting a bit uneasy this morning.

As expected (hoped) last evening, 74 provided too much resistance overnight for the POSX and it rolled over, making a low on the June contract of 73.57. On the chart below, it is quite clear that the pig should catch a bid near 73.50. As it bounces off of there, it will once again encounter that down-sloping trendline. If it can break through, it will rally as buyers emerge and shorts cover. It would likely make it all the way back up to 74+.
When this happens, you can bet that it will put pressure on the PMs. Silver will retreat back toward the bottom end of this pennant.
And gold is not going to be looking very good, at all. A concerted effort has been made to contain gold below 1550, as you can plainly see on this 30-minute chart.
I think I now know why. By capping price and momentum at 1550, the daily chart begins to take on a nasty-looking double top. When we called Turd's #2 back in May, I mentioned that 1560-80 was my June target for gold. It reached 1555 yesterday and that's pretty close. Watch this daily chart in the coming days. I'd say that trendline is pretty important so, IF gold rolls over, we're going to want to pay particular attention to the action in the 1520 area.

All of that said, please keep in mind that these are simply words of caution. The PMs may continue higher and all will be well. The POSX may trade all the way to 73 before finding support and, even there, it may just bang around between 73 and 73.50 again, like it did back in April. Let's hope so. In the meantime, keep an eye on the charts.  TF



12:20 pm EDT UPDATE:
Sometimes it sucks to be right.
As if on cue, The Cartel took the opportunity presented by a lack of buyers and jammed gold down about $10 an hour ago. Fortunately, I took my own advice and sold one of my August 1550 calls before the beatdown. I'm now looking for a spot to buy a dip with a tight stop. That spot looks to be somewhere near 1530. We'll see.
Of course, today's action presents another possibility that we must be aware of. Namely, that The Fed has warned their friends that The Bernank is going to give a "hawkish" speech this afternoon, seeming to disavow QE3 and attempting to give support to the lifeless, dying POSX. This has caused a rush to the exits from the connected, inside money. Wouldn't be the first time this has happened, now would it?
More later.

250 comments:

  1. I get the silver angle by TFTB, but gold?

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  2. Turd,

    Any thoughts on Bernanke talkig at the end of the day?

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  3. Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up drinkin'

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  4. @LevelHeaded
    You've stated numerous times in the last week or two that silver is headed to the moon. I think we all (generally) believe that for the long run, but you also state it's going to happen any second/minute/day now. Just one question...

    Why?

    Please give us a storyline we can follow and judge your bullish statement by. And also specify what you're trading with - futures, physical, or ??

    If you can't/don't answer, then you're one of the most uncommon trolls of all, but a troll nonetheless - the "bull troll" :)

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  5. picked up crude now 37.9 and sold original position for break even on the way down

    now waiting for it to go to the moon and i'll move to Venezuela

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  6. waffen: Lately, every time The Bernank talks, it's been positive for the PMs. Let's hope that trend continues.

    Here's a somewhat interesting article I just found:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-traders-strangely-subdued-2011-06-07?link=MW_story_investinginsighta

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  7. stevy

    Venezuelan hookers and blow? Woo Hooo!!

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. This is an off-topic numismatic question.

    When I was a kid I found in an old Camp Henry Jackson a 1914-D penny which is a key date. We're out of food and I was cleaning out the chest freezer last night and FOUND IT. It's definately not mint state but would it sell better on eBay if I had it slabbed?

    The good good part is I found 5 rainbow toned silver dollars and one 10 peso gold coin.

    The bad thing is that I had a supposedly stronger chain for the centenario I wear and it just broke and everything fell and now I can't find the chain (I have the coin on another chain.) I have to get the damn broken chain because he won't be much longer to bring my 50 toz sterling necklace and bracelet set.

    Everything has a frequency and the frequency of prosperity is EIGHT; Josh and I each carry one of those door numbers with an 8 on it in our wallets a;; the time. Consider doing the same even though it sounds mashugganah to you

    OF

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  10. Great post, as always, Turd! The price of gold and silver will be under pressure....mainly because the EE needs to prove how bad things can get before they go for another QE Injection. My thoughts are we will be experiencing unpredictable volatility until late August with the Dow and Russell taking a 20% hit from current levels. Helicopter Ben will avoid any talk of QE and will continue articulating a wait and see platform until after QE2 had ended and stopped for a period of time. The EE needs to form a high pressure storm, in my opinion, to gain support for further moves they want to do....get OBummer re-elected in 2012.

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  11. In case anyone is interested in reading doublespeak directly from the horse's mouth, the FRBNY has a blog too:

    http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/06/a-closer-look-at-the-recent-pickup-in-inflation.html

    "The fact that the disinflationary forces operating last fall were of concern to policymakers, then, might suggest that the recent reversal in inflation could be viewed favorably as a return to more normal pricing patterns, rather than as the first step in a prolonged reflationary episode. On the other hand, the fact that the traditionally more stable components of inflation, such as rents, are the ones driving its increase could be a source of concern, since the movements in these components tend to be harder to slow down and might therefore continue to drive overall inflation higher in the months to come."

    It's great to see that such firm, decisive and prescient hands are controlling US and global monetary policy...

    So, the fearless leader will say the recent undisinflation is a sign that QE has worked as intended. We will end the $600B program known as QE2 but otherwise proceed as the Dallas FedPrez Fisher outlined:

    @Fortinbras:
    "While Fisher made clear that the $600 billion program will end in June, "we will continue the process, until we change our minds, of replacing the run-off in the mortgage-backed securities portfolio we have," he said, a portfolio that is roughly $900 billion in size.

    What happens going forward, will depend on how the Fed sees the economy evolving, he added"

    http://imarketnews.com/node/31846

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  12. @Pailin

    I also have a hard time believing silver to da moon in the short term. Even with the current craziness, silver isn't going to make a dramatic move upward within the next month in my opinion. I see it ping ponging between the 30 to 40 range. There definitely might be money to be made if you're willing to continue with paper trades and can see the channel signals moving up or down. But then....I'm here...and enjoy Turd's take on things to temper my own.

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  13. @Fortinbras (from previous thread)

    What Bernanke said at the last FOMC was that QE2 would end, but they would continue to replace maturing debt already on the FED's balance sheet. Is that the $900B to which Fisher referred?

    I thought at the time that this was tantamount to saying stimulus would continue, but we won't call it QE anymore. I didn't hear anyone else making that observation, though, so maybe I misinterpreted it.

    Also, the president of the Philadelphia FED said that the FED should exit QE whether there was a rise in jobs or not. Maybe that was a telegraphing what BSB will say later today.

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  14. Will there be default in SLV?

    I was out of town and haven't read all posts like I have been for the past few months so please forgive me if this idea has been presented. Also, I am new to PMs and trading so if this idea is plain stupid just say so.

    First, a few assumptions that seem to be commonly accepted on this blog:

    1. EE has the ability to manipulate the commodity markets.

    2. SLV and GLD are two places they do that.

    3. EE wants to keep PMs suppressed to make the dollar appear stronger than it is.

    Because I am new I do not know all the different things possible the EE can do to suppress the PM market. What I have learned is massive shorts and margin hikes are two ways.

    There are also limits to the impact of what anyone thing can do and if they over use one thing it will become too blatant (not that it already isn't).

    So here is my idea.

    What if they are purposely draining the amount of metals in the ETFs to the minimum possible level they can without defaulting and then they keep enough metal coming in to just get by.

    If they can scare enough people into believing a default is near wouldn't that help drive the price of silver down?

    I am a small player and I am too scared of default now to buy SLV, thats what made me think of this.

    Maybe we are all being played in a new way?

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  15. @Shill...

    Here is what I heard Fisher say and he seemed to be uncomfortable with it as he went on... I'm paraphrasing, but this is what I heard regarding the "end" of QE2 and whether there would be a 3 or not...

    "QE2 as you know it will end..."

    "We will continue to..." I can't remember the mumbo jumbo, but he said that they would keep doing something with MBS' and he said that they total $900B+.

    So, it sounded to me like they could be in for up to roughly another $1T without calling it anything new and with QE2 "ending" and no QE3 "starting."

    So technically, he said QE2 was ending, didn't mention a QE3 (said they'd done their part), but it sounded like they'd be taking up to another $900B of shit of the plate, so call it what you want I guess.

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  16. Understand what is happening.....this is a twofold process...one is to prevent the headline prices of PMs getting too high.....duh and two is the real game which is to accumulate miners and physical during this consolidation period.....sheep (us) become nervous during consolidation range bound time periods and couph up their shares.....the weakest hands already couphed up their shares during the take down last month.......now they want to take the traders out....gl baaaa baaaaaa

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  17. @Pailin

    You are unbelievable. Simply unbelievable. I can understand you being upset because you are hedged while the metals are moving higher. I can also understand that you are upset because you are so vocal about shorting here and hedging there, all the while we keep marching up.

    Can we search for a specific poster on this blog? If so, go look at my posts from the last 3 weeks. They are all dead on. All of them.

    RE:"but you also state it's going to happen any second/minute/day now"
    I never said this, go look. I did say we are going to get paid this week on last Friday's close. I also have been pointing out EXCELENT pullback/dip buy points over the last couple weeks.

    RE: "Please give us a storyline we can follow and judge your bullish statement by"
    I have said from the beginning that I trade TA not FA. Stories are for children. Do you think when you hear some news (silver inventories, Goldman Sachs upgrade/downgradeof commodities, margin hikes) that no one else has already traded on that information. 1000 people probably trade on it before it is even public. All of those trades are reflected in the charts, and that is what I pay attection to. I have posted over and over about why I think the charts look good. The charts are bullish. I really hope you stay short/hedged.

    RE: "specify what you're trading with - futures, physical, or ??"
    I own physical, AGQ, SLV July 2011 calls and SLV Jan 2012 Calls, silver futures, and gold futures. I am a better trader than many many traders but no one is better than the market. I always use stops and I try to avoid being too dogmatic. I will sell if the charts violate.

    RE: "If you can't/don't answer, then you're one of the most uncommon trolls of all, but a troll nonetheless - the "bull troll" :)"
    Hopefully this satisfies all the NON-trolls. This is the last time I defend myself, I will not do it again. Follow my posts if you wish, if not, I don't care.

    PS. Using "please" and ending with a smily face doesn't make the tone of your post any better.

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  18. The problem with counting on MBS rollovers to fund the current funding requirements is that the monthly output is figured at only $30 billion and the treasury needs $100 billion. The difference needs to be funded from somewhere. The Fed balance sheet as it is currently structured is insufficient to keep the Treasury afloat as I understand it.

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  19. @ CD

    Allow me if you will, to translate the Fedspeak:

    "We don't know WTF we're doing and what, if anything, will work. We have no idea how to fix this mess we created And maintain our primary mandate of keeping ourselves at the top of the food chain. (Those other mandates of full employment and low inflation are just for public consumption. We will continue to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks. If there is even the slightest positive change in the economy, we will of course take credit for it and continue to obfuscate."

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  20. @oldNavy -

    If Ben Actually says that, I wouldn't want to be stuck in any short term positions overnight.

    My own WAG is that a lot of this talk of no additional QEs is going to pressure markets down at the official ending date, and with some important levels in the 11Ks of the Dow, anything could happen. When it does, presto, QE3 or financial rescue or some other name.

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  21. Thanks CD... yes, that's what he said, and with my public school education and all, I'm pretty sure that gives them a ton of lee way to play with $1-2T without calling it anyhing.

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  22. Silver looks poised to pop. No wonder they're pouring it on atm...

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  23. Rolling over matured MBSs into newly acquired MBSs, or into Treasuries? Big difference either way.

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  24. Despite the trend (that when Bernanke speaks, PMs go up), would it be prudent to consider the nature of what Bernanke will say today?
    I'm considering what Tesla wrote about the nature of what Bernanke will say today. Can anyone anyone can comment on the specifics?

    Tesla wrote:

    "Bernanke's speech tomorrow - please see my two posts above (WAY ABOVE) regarding the Feds decision to mandate that banks need to increase their currency reserves:

    What this means in PLAIN ENGLISH = retraction of liquidity, reduction in lendable monies SOLID PUSH DOWNWARD ON MARKETS and a UPWARD ON THE DOLLAR/POSX - banks lend multiple dollars for every dollar they hold (fractional reserve lending)."

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  25. Harvey's post last night includes an interview of JS Kim by Max Keiser that enlightened me on how the Comex silver and gold settlements are done through the GLD and SLV etf's, very little actual physical settlement occurs. Comex failure may be postponed until Comex/SLV/GLD and maybe even London also fail..
    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

    "comperie" I am comperieng physical with paper..

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  26. Apologies for the typos...meant "Can anyone comment on the specifics?"

    Muchos thanks.

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  27. @LevelHeaded
    I believe I called 35s before you did, but that's neither here nor there. Let's talk TA chart looking great. Which chart? I don't trade you, but others might be, they need to know what they're getting into. My trade is upfront and obvious, yours is mysterious and wonderful. I wish you the best :)

    :) = my sarcasm face, because I generally think you're an @ss and have since your first post :)

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  28. Lets face it, we are in the weakest time of year for the PM's and until the BOS return we are stuck with the EE power to do what they will, when they will with the price of PM's. Look at this disgusting overt display of their criminal power. Dollar down, Dow Jones up, oil not moving up or down, and they just now smash the hell out of the PM prices in a waterfall starting at 7 am.
    So, we are just going to have to wait until perhaps August before all this manipulation will have a counter-force when the big seasonal buyers return.

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  29. @Shill, Fort and Old Navy,

    The MBS on the FED's balance sheet generate cash as the underlying mortgages mature or are paid off early (refinanced). The Fed's stated intention is to use this cash to purchase Treasuries. (Ongoing QE Lite.)

    ZH has done good work documenting that this source of cash is insufficient to meet the Treasury's deficit funding needs, therefore it won't work to fill the gaps in the current account and fiscal deficits and QE3 will be necessary.

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  30. @@LevelHeaded
    You're BTFD right now right? Cuz it's a doozy if you're thinking 30s are bye-bye any day now.

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  31. Isn't this the fifth time they have beat back the price of gold from the 1550 level? Damn these bastards don't give a damn how blatant or overt their criminal activity is in your face.

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  32. @Pailin

    Gold is down $4 you knucklehead.

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  33. Actually, I withdraw that wow...

    30c in a minute or so.... I've said it before, we've had worse!

    but 8 hours worth of gains wiped out in a few minutes... not so nice...

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  34. @Pailin
    I'm buying physical today. Yes.

    I'm not buying any more futures or calls today. I bought them 2 weeks ago while you were shorting.

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  35. This is quite homoerotic between Pailin and LevelHeaded.

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  36. Here's an excerpt from an article that I found interesting about MBS rollovers....

    For Olivier Garret, CEO of Casey Research, the most interesting part of Wednesday’s announcement is what happens next.

    “At this point it’s going to be very interesting to figure out how the Treasury is going to find the $100 billion per month it needs just to finance the deficit forward. This is not counting that they have to roll over an additional $2.5 trillion over the next eight to 10 months just to refinance the debt that is expiring.”

    Bernanke said the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities for an indefinite period to keep the balance sheet from shrinking. “When we complete the [QE2] program... we are going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS. So the amount of securities that we hold will remain approximately constant.... Put another way, the amount of ease monetary policy easing should essentially remain constant going forward from June.”

    But Garret estimates the proceeds from the expiring MBS rollovers at about $30 billion a month, less than one-third of what is actually needed, and he wonders who is going to line up to “start buying Treasuries in excess of the standard rollover, which is a staggering amount on its own?”

    The result, says Garret, is that the Fed is between “a rock and a hard place.”


    No Surprises on QE2

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  37. @Pailin
    I'm done talking to you. Don't bother adressing me.

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  38. @Pailin and Level,

    While the two of you engage in a pissing contest, the rest of us are getting wet.

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  39. Who else just watched SLV and physical spread over 1/2%? Silver down .4%+, while SLV stayed positive around .2%. Likewise, AGQ and SLV aren't pacing today's spot (as reported by Netdania and Kitco anyways).

    So there's a premium on alleged physical vs promises for physical or cash settlement inside of 30 days? Interesting.

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  40. my guess is the metals will go down till Hitler speaks and then will rally ....

    just a guess but i'm waiting for 1530

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  41. @beprepared,

    You live up to your name. You are prepared with the details and data to enlighten the debate. Well done!

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  42. @LevelHeaded
    I've been short silver since Friday. As in 5 days ago.

    Gold down more now :)

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  43. waterfall on gold and silver right now

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  44. @Dakini

    Please read Jim M post further down the same thread.
    I believe his view tempers my bearish sentiment regarding Bernanke's speech somewhat and his argument and understanding of the system and specific bank balance sheet holdings may be better than my own.

    We will see soon enough =b

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  45. pailin ..what gold level are you waiting for ?

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  46. @silvernomics
    Not that there's anything wrong with that :)

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  47. Out and out banditry. This is your country people, like the way it looks? What a joke this all is. Criminality writ large. That's our "Financial System"

    Buy phyzz. It's The Real Thing. Get 'em while they're cheap, as the muggles continue their sleep.

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  48. can't we all just get along?

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  49. @stevy
    I like gold at 1525, small bet for a day flip. 1530 may be same difference though as 1525 may not happen, pretty lowball. Dunno. 1525 is bottom Bollinger on 8hr.

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  50. This has to be TFD....so whos buying?

    got a small position to average down a little at 36.68..

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  51. How does everyone feel about buying at ~$1520 (if we get there) this time around?

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  52. This perspective clarifies who is in the right and who is in the wrong between Pailin and Levelheaded:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jr9hPbYmBo

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  53. @NCOT
    For a day trade anything in there 36+ is probably good for a little bounce back up towards 37, but you'd need to be okay to dump it before it breaks lower resistance - if we keep dropping.

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  54. EE trying to smack down PMs before the Bernank opens his big mouth and drives them back up this afternoon!

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  55. interesting that platinum and palladium are UP and silver and gold are down ... always like to watch the other PM's as it becomes an indicator of what is going on ... MANIPULATION in the highest degree.

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  56. new here and Hi all !! maybe a triangle forming for gold to consolidate gains and work off over bought conditions...$1575 down to $1475 upto $1555 then down to $1495 then upto $1525 back to $1515 and then on to the next leg up? daily stochs definitely toppy...regards, Enough

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  57. come on...group Turd hug everyone!

    *HUGS*

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  58. @Pailin, thanks stops set in at 36.35 (pure guess)...

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  59. @Levelheaded

    I don't think your a troll - thanks for you posts!

    @Pailin

    I appreciate your posts as well - cant we just ALL GET ALONG?

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  60. lol @ DB..

    Someone put out the bat signal for an FUBM please...

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  61. The tight money scare today continues: Fed is doing some reverse repos tomorrow. Wow, this is a busy day for the perception manipulators.

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  62. It's a beautiful afternoon here in London and I've just snagged some tickets for the Olympic boxing quarter-finals. Category B, no less, so there's an excellent chance of being spattered with blood.

    All I need now is for the Bernank to light a fire under this bad boy.

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  63. seems to me gold keeps bouncing off 1538. I am buying 1538 again and selling at 1550 - also thinking of getting silver at 36.5 but it hasn't hit that yet

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  64. @Lazy Lester

    Thanks! I can see the heavier storm in front of us with two points of convergence for the Treasury....(1) Refinancing $2.5 Trillion over the next 8 to 10 months and (2)Lack of significant Foreign bid on Treasuries after June. Then...to top it off...another $2 trillion expansion to the debt ceiling, which is inevitable. I'm just trying to discern when Congress and the OBummer will feel enough pressure to allow the Fed to open the spigot yet again.

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  65. Brent crude up, WTI down... contrast or what... I'm betting on the wrong barrel!

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  66. Turd - I agree that this action in gold feels no good. Had a very sizeable UGL position built up (feels "boring" after getting used to AGQ), and was actually relieved vs. annoyed when tight stops took out about 75% of my position in the 81.30 range.

    I disagree on Bernanke - we had a nice gain when he spoke at the end of April and that ended up being the set-up for the May Massacre. I am expecting something similar over the next day or two as the next big step down in the equity markets gets "blessed". WTFDIK but after the gold stops hit, biggest remaining position is TZA (3x short Russell 2000). Will nibble back into the PM's but going back to the beginning just don't feel good about the paper PM's for the moment . . .

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  67. @DB,

    I hope nobody is squeezing a turd while on here, let alone in a group setting.

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  68. @Tesla,

    or as atlee says "get a thong", "hit a bong"

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  69. Silver bounced off the bottom of the 120 minute bollinger band. Gold off the rising trendline from the May bottom. So far so good.

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  70. @NCOT
    Looks like a good stop. Next question..what's your target sell? I'll post mine (if I was trading it) after you post yours.

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  71. for those who like Hecla (HL) ...

    back in March (I think) I posted that there is a gap at $7 from the beginning of Nov. 2010 on the charts ... it still is there ... maybe something to watch as a buying point for that stock ... present price is $7.74 ... DYODD

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  72. Ill pass on the bong.... but if the thong comes with a Venezuelan hottie - sweet!

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  73. I am out of my POSX short with a profit - will get back in after some peaking. Still waiting to pull the trigger on buying crude or silver.

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  74. Am on vacay in a neighboring country.
    And you wonder why I've always strived to lighten up the mood here...lol
    People tend to take themselves way too seriously.

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  75. @beprepared,

    Not just "when", but as important "how" QE3 will not look like QE2. It can't, or markets will call them on their game.

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  76. Press conf coming up with obama and merkel. expect merkel to look like the rich stepmother that has no choice but to pay for her lazy stepdaughter's big fat Greek wedding. also to look like "why am I wasting my time talking to this empty suit who doesn't know anything about economic policy or business in general?"

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  77. @Tesla
    I asked for context and got BS. What's to get along with? I'm open-minded and love to analyze well-formed arguments different than my own, that's how you grow and learn. For some reason that was a hard thing for LevelHeaded to provide.

    Still waiting to hear what chart LevelHeaded uses for TA to provide huge bull call. There's a big difference in look between the 1hr and 1wk charts :)

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  78. JoeKa

    LOL. You are in Singapore, right? If you cross the street, you are in a neighboring country!

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  79. Enjoying just lurking and laughing.

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  80. So sorry I did not enter a spread on APPL...

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  81. Just picked up a little bit of AGQ at 186 following my strategy of BTFEER (Buy the F'ing EE Raid). I'm finally gaining wisdom, and set a stop at 184. But I could use some advice:

    1) Should I move the stop up as it goes up? (Assuming it goes up). How often/how much?

    2) Is there any way to set a stop limit below and a sell point above? My brokerage account does not seem to have that option.

    TIA!

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  82. @atlee
    Then you need a more appropriate avatar :) :) :)

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  83. @Pailin

    Part of the prob could be your avatar. I don't know about others, but it makes me want to kick you in the nards. But then - based on your handle - I'd be afraid I'd hear "you betcha...bless their hearts."

    :)

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  84. suggestion for atlee's new avator, lol

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  85. ride down is easier than the ride up. Plus they got more dough. Long physical short the paper on rallies. How about that strategy? Forget the paper long side. Naw.

    How about instead of the whipsaw ride on AGQ, short ASL? Same return with out the harry ride and the large capital requirement.

    Shutting up now and going back to trading and lurking.

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  86. @ Quixote

    I agree abotu the avatar.. Seeing George Soros constantly pop up makes me despise that poster with utter and complete contempt. I have no desire to be exposed to that disgusting face.

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  87. @JoeKa... yeh we've missed you , no ones getting my British humour...

    @ Pailin, was thinking of either holding til high 37's (where I'll break even on all my positions together) or just low 37's for the day if A it bounces that far and B the bounce doesnt have too much steam..

    For the record, I appreciate both yours and Levels opinions..

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  88. in honor of Xty's return, I'll go back to this one for a while.

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  89. @Lazy Lester

    True. The form of "QE3" will have to take a different path. I am guessing one aspect will be to address all the pending foreclosures on Freddie's, Fannie's and TBTF bank's balance sheets. I hate what I'm thinking, but it will most likely be a directive to all institutions to write down 1 to 2 million mortgages to current market levels with the Fed giving the banks the difference....a nice $300 to $400 billion program. The banks are made whole, once again, and reduce their exposure and the sheeple get another hand out. OBummer gets re-elected.

    I detest it because it continues to reward the bad behavior that was perpetraded by all players and kills anyone who tried to live honestly. I'm not saying it takes that exact form, but I think a component of the next Fed Program rolled out will be specifically geared to allow the Prez to keep his job....regardless of the consequences.

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  90. well i know little to nothing ... but looks like they have everyone chasing their tails, and taking swipes at each other! Perfect...

    VER. word-CONSTAB-
    Go with it... plenty to work with there!

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  91. fwiw

    i was wrong about quick bounce back in equities, whether or not they will continue going up remains to be seen but i got flat again at least for my short trade.

    i'm essentially flat spec on everything now....(except long bikinis this summer)

    everything else is choppy all over the place...

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  92. I'm short.........

    literally, I'm 5'3, thats short......

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  93. @Pailin,

    Now your just an old man pissing all over himself. Pathetic!

    ReplyDelete
  94. EE to JPM - "Maybe just one more raid at noon before Ben Speaks...for good measure?"

    JPM to EE - "Oh, why the hell not?"

    High fives all the way around.

    ReplyDelete
  95. @JoeKa

    You're on vacation, out of the country, and it's the middle of the night... and you're on the blog.

    You got a serious case, man! You need help. :))

    ReplyDelete
  96. @D E - Merkel certainly any more about economics than the empty suit ...

    ReplyDelete
  97. Aw geez. New avatar.
    Never meant George to be permanent anyway, just a walk-on after that cookie monster cr@p.

    ReplyDelete
  98. @beprepared

    Sounds plausible to me.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Back early 1900 we had 2 mild recessions with runs on the private banks. JP Morgan stepped up and put up the money and stopped the problem. then the bankers convinced the gov that the US Government should put up the money. So in 1913 the gov put in the Federal Reserve so the gov could be the lender of last resort when the banks got into trouble.

    So the purpose of the Federal Reserve is to BAIL OUT THE BANKS.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @beprepared,

    You do a good job of articulating the details of what amounts to outright purchases of underwater mortgages. I think you're right in the path the money will take if this becomes policy. You know the Treasury would never just cut a cheque to needy mortgagees.

    Bailing out the banks again, if it seen for what it is by the sheeple, could the flashpoit for civil unrest.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Finding the right avatar was hard for me, I looked all over the place, then I saw a picture on ZeroHedge the other day and decided THAT'S the one for me!

    It certainly looks like Turd called it again on Silver, trading within the penant until it either goes up or down. I'm hoping up myself.

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  102. does anyone know what happened to my FUBM I ordered???

    ReplyDelete
  103. @Animal Sacrifice

    Wow, a 1914-D!
    Is it in Fine or better condition (lines at top of wheat grains are visible on reverse)?

    If you get a good picture, E-Bay buyers will identify the condition for you. But you should research the value based on grade.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @ pailin

    I am with you buddy.

    So is the setup that last time Bernake opened his pie hole we rallied and this time we dive?

    If he doesn't throw us a bone, this mkt looks very tired. Gold walking the highwire here may slip off.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @NCOT
    The day is young, but sometimes you take a hit on a day trade, key is to drop it when it's time. Not time yet, you've got your stop for that.

    ReplyDelete
  106. 1) Should I move the stop up as it goes up? (Assuming it goes up). How often/how much?

    2) Is there any way to set a stop limit below and a sell point above? My brokerage account does not seem to have that option.
    ++++++++++++++++++++

    1) The Million Dollar Question.

    2) I believe you can do it on commodities. you do a One Cancels Other order. OCO.

    if the price is $95 you can

    sell @ $100 or better
    Buy @ $90 on a stop
    OCO

    ReplyDelete
  107. Long oil? Why?

    Weak economy, China slowing (and half their companies turning out to be total frauds anyway), Saudis saying they want oil lower, QE 2 ending, Europe about to go tits up.

    So what's the bull case for oil?

    I'm not short oil, but by being long USD/CAD it's a pretty good proxy.

    ReplyDelete
  108. thanks Pailin...

    just getting tired of seeing red on my account for the last few days!

    ReplyDelete
  109. Pailin and all -

    Figure I'll chime in with why I'm otimistic to see if my TA makes any sense... Feel free to be brutal with any criticism.

    I'm using Ira's indicators (18, 45, 100, 150 MA's + SS) with the MA9 and 200 thrown in. The daily chart is looking pretty neutral, but we are above that key MA18 line. Barely...

    The 4hr, however, is getting me a little excited. I've uploaded what I'm looking at to my dropbox, have a look, I'd love to hear if you see what I see... http://db.tt/5j7P46K

    Looks to me like we've turned some resistance into support. Hit a wall at the MA45 this AM, but with some sideways action it looks like the cluster of support wants to lift silver through that. If silver clears that MA45 we could be looking at a quick pop to the upper 38's.

    It's the cluster of support just below here that has me optimistic. I'm thinking it should be tough to break through that. I could be wrong, the cluster of support could be taken out in one swell foop and then I'll look like an idiot. I've got orders in to lighten up just shy of 38.8 (AGQ 204) in case I'm right, and to add at 34ish (AGQ 160) if I'm wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  110. 'Silver trading in a pennant, until it goes up or down'

    That pretty much sums up my opinion of the value of technical trading : )

    ReplyDelete
  111. ==> The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has announced that it will expand the set of counterparties it uses for reverse repo transactions to include money market mutual funds. Previously, only entities designated as primary dealers could engage in such transactions with the Fed.

    http://financialreform.wolterskluwerlb.com/2010/03/fed-to-allow-money-market-funds-as-reverse-repo-counterparties.html

    ReplyDelete
  112. humahuaca,

    1) Peace and Love in MENA
    2) Saudis are about to FLOOD the world with their excess capacity

    There's plenty more but my screen name prevents me from additional writing.

    ReplyDelete
  113. @atlee
    I don't like seeing S&P sub-1300. It's a bad vibe trend-wise and tells me selloff everywhere at any point culminating when clients start calling advisors to protect their 529 assets by moving to money market. Of course it's far too late then and that's when we're buying heavy again.

    Bernank is a trigger, not sure if he's the ultimate trigger. June 21 sucks if nobody says anything at all about extension of free money. And raise rate talk kills PMs, doesn't have to realistic, just has to convice the Street to sell. Most of them are sheeple too, just have bigger bonuses.

    And let's not presume Obama re-election is the goal. He could be the 21st century Jimmy Carter. With a much sh!ttier Reagan to follow, say Mitt? He's got to be NWO all the way, he's already drunk of the SLC Kool-Aid :)

    ReplyDelete
  114. @uptofreedom...

    Still trying to work out charts better... but thanks for posting

    ReplyDelete
  115. @sockeye1

    Thanks for the info! I guess I'm about to learn about getting stopped out :-P. If I can prevent myself from getting creamed again like on MayDay, it's worth the learning expense. And with a stop in place I can go to the bathroom without worrying about an EE waterfall costing me big bucks.

    ReplyDelete
  116. please check an important update

    ReplyDelete
  117. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/07/bankers-politicians-food-betting-game

    Wait I thought it was the speculators?

    ReplyDelete
  118. 1) Should I move the stop up as it goes up? (Assuming it goes up). How often/how much?

    Instead of asking the question. I suggest you try to answer the question in writing right here on the blog.

    What do you think ???

    ReplyDelete
  119. SPX 50DMA has rolled over. Watch the area between 1260 and 1250 for support. If 200DMA fails, look out below. 2008 all over again.

    ReplyDelete
  120. @ uptofreedom

    Ira bias is negative on silver. He says it is in neutral territory but he is sticking with the seasonal tendency for now. He also uses daily chart for decisions. There are some other things I think you are missing like where is the low or high in relation to the 18 day ma. want to see that higher than that last low or vice versa. also want an imbedded stoch.

    ReplyDelete
  121. np, NCOT. I'm still learning this TA stuff too though, so don't take my word as gospel. Were you able to access my dropbox alright? Works for me, duh, just want to make sure pers are right for others to access...

    ReplyDelete
  122. @Lazy Lester

    The titration of QE3 mixed with the possibility of civil unrest has a time delay element to it....in that whichever form QE3 takes, it will take time to work its way through the underlying system in such a way that the effects won't be obvious to the sheeple until much later (12+ months). If we consider the potential goal of this next Fed action is keep the Prez in office, then initiating an 8 - 10 month program starting in Sept 2011 takes us to May - July 2012. A perfect timetable for OBummer to campaign on his saving the people from this great housing crisis. Nevermind, he just montezied private debt onto the public for the sake of buying off votes. The deleterious effects of this compounding debt may not show its overt inflationary head for up to 12 months....well after the November elections.

    Obviously, huge conjecture on my part, but if we are trying to be prepared for the collapse of the fiat system......understanding the how, the when and the why might help us to structure our actions accordingly. OBummer can't have a collapse before November 2012, so he and his EE cohorts will do whatever it takes to extend the bigger way of inflationary forces until after he can't be touched. If the sheeple wake up and civil unrest ensues, well....we all know the Government playbook at that point.

    ReplyDelete
  123. That's the second hold of 1537. $13 off the day high. If you have ZERO and want to start building a position. I suggest you nibble here at 1540

    ReplyDelete
  124. @uptofreedom...

    yes worked fine thanks... hope you're right..

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  125. @Level.. had a very small nibble at 1538.30 a little earlier...

    no biggy, just some change to practice with..

    ReplyDelete
  126. These are all logical places to hold
    1537 - Rising trendline
    1530 - TF call
    1525 - 200MA on 120 minute chart
    1519 - 20 day MA

    If you want to build a position, nibble here and hope it goes further down.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ Lazy L

    Soon as Ghaddafi gets booted oil will drop $10.

    Don't forget shale oil for the longer term.

    I'm not fanatical about shorting here, or else I would take a meaningful position, but I sure as hell don't want to be long.

    ReplyDelete
  128. From my college days. . .

    Prof) So what do you have at the end point of the titration?

    Student) A beaker full of ions?

    Chemistry was a killer for me.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Turd, first of all, thanks for answering my question the other day about when options on futures can be traded. I really appreciate it!

    Secondly, yesterday's post at GoldTrends might explain why 1550 and 1516-1519 are important levels to watch for gold:
    http://www.goldtrends.net/

    "...THE NEXT COMING FEW WEEKS ARE VERY IMPORTANT to the trend. Weaker cycles are due to kick in but price remains above the 34 day moving average. In 2010 -- June also missed a short term cycle and make SLIGHT new highs near month end. ANY CLOSE above 1555 would argue for the trend to remain up in the short term. It takes a close below 1516-1519 to turn the short term trend down. Watch the 1533-1538 area on Tuesday for First support..."

    Their calls are pretty good (in this case, they've identified similar levels to the ones you did). The thesis they're leaning to is that we'll peak in PMs by mid-June and experience a seasonal summer correction through August.

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  130. I know I was on a roll....was having too much fun....I'm sure you get my point, though.

    ReplyDelete
  131. @atlee - based on the daily, yeah. He's neutral at best, possibly bearish. That's why I'm looking to the 4hr for insight. SS did look like it wanted to embed this morning. Now, not so much. Support's still holding like a champ though. :)

    But like you say, I am missing some stuff. Still learning. Also, I'm not the nimble day trader that Ira is, can't be in the IRA. Trying to figure out a swing trading strategy to use considering I've got settlement periods to deal with...

    ReplyDelete
  132. Anyone getting the feeling that with QE3 coming, JPM has been busy covering their short position ahead of any blastoff? Silver has been showing amazing resilience the past few days, in the face of falling oil prices and equities.

    Just me thinking aloud...

    ReplyDelete
  133. Hmmmski...

    Turdski- - FUBMski???

    Spasiba mena tovarich!

    ReplyDelete
  134. @Pailin
    Curious....what is "the SLC koolaid"? Thought they didn't drink in Utah.

    ReplyDelete
  135. @humahuaca,

    The means to export Libyian supply has been blown up. It will be a long time before that oil is back in the market.

    Yes, there is shale oil, tar sands and deep water oil. None of those sources are of the type we currently use. Namely, "cheap" oil. (if + $100/bbl can be called cheap.)

    ReplyDelete
  136. @uptofreedom
    Considering you've got trading limitations, why not only play trend fat pitches? You could do fine by getting into and out of daily Bollinger top/bottom. These would essentially be trades you sit in for weeks and sometimes months, leaving you to not worry about each tick and not sweat settlement periods. Pull up the daily chart and you'll see that as a trend, buying the bottom when price spikes though and holding all the way up until price spikes through top to sell would be a great long range trade, taking few of the hits and keeping most of the profits.

    ReplyDelete
  137. SilverisKing

    I think JPM has busy covering their shorts since the May collapse...assuming they had the huge Bear Stearns position still in play. I still think its telling how quickly they got a vault approved by Comex and how it allows them to play both ends quite effectively without much audit or oversight. Not that they had any to begin with....

    ReplyDelete
  138. "Ah, number 37, I've been expecting you..." {swivles on chair, stroking a silver coin}

    ReplyDelete
  139. SilverisKing,

    Thinking right along with you.

    PMs behaving pretty much as they did last year during the hiatus between QE1 and QE2. (As in remarkably well, considering the sell off in the broader markets.)

    ReplyDelete
  140. Damn, my store still isn't open. Wish they opened at 9 instead of 10.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @NCOT
    Watch your charts and know your exits. If I was trading this, I wouldn't be looking at my buy today being a ticket to 39.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Oh, you guys are gonna like this one!

    ReplyDelete
  143. @Silveris king.... In a round a bout way, that's what I've been saying...

    with the drops in oil and gold, we'd 'normally' be losing over a dollar at a time, minimum..

    As Level Headed 'predicted' yesterday, roughly a 75c drop from peak seemed max. and about 85c today (so far)

    In the scheme of things.. Its holding its own ok I think..

    ReplyDelete
  144. Hey Ben - Ever hear of Bastille Day???

    ReplyDelete
  145. i am confused if, Bernanke is supposed to be negative QE3 why did Silver catch a big up?

    ReplyDelete
  146. @Pailin

    the most honest answer to your question is that I'm still sold on the fundamentals and don't want to miss a run up. Don't want to be all out. Very light at times, sure, but not all out.

    And, I forgot to mention BB's, but I do use them. Breaking either is a sign to add or lighten up, depending on which was hit.

    ReplyDelete
  147. SIK,

    Bob Chapman's outlook is that the prolonged PM price action we've seen is designed to beat down PM prices before QE3 and other dollar destroying measures kick in. The idea is that PM's will only move to new all-time highs rather than do a moonshot.

    Kotlikoff says we're 200 Trill in debt. Even if he's wrong by 50%, you get the idea. Like ALL prior fiat systems, this one is coming down.

    Use the opportunity to buy phyzz at these prices. And take careful note of ongoing developments that will lead to cutting off your full control of your own retirement monies.

    This crew is both desperate and unconstrained by regulators or the "Law". The Law only applies to you and I.

    ReplyDelete
  148. @Pailin, thanks, I'm not expecting 39..

    Got a bad feeling we wont see that for a long time.. (hope Im wrong)

    I'm still hoping high 37's though, I think thats possible..

    For todays trade though.. I'm thinking 37.20-30 near the days highs.

    If it looks stronger, I'll let it ride and move the stop to 37.20

    ReplyDelete
  149. Maybe it is the real Bernanke....

    who actually has nothing better to do....

    ReplyDelete
  150. Not only do we face the election in Nov 2012 but we face much worse. We face the Federal Reserve getting a renewal on its 99 year contract for another 99 years. That is due in December of 2012.

    We started out in 1913 in good shape as a country. The Federal Reserve has destroyed us. If we give them another 99 years of this insanity we will be all dead.

    The Fed Reserve is even running its own candidate. As if all of them were not in the bag. But this time they are putting up Herman Cain the former head of the Kansas City Fed Res.

    I believe the Fed Reserve has controlled all the elections these past decades. Well they did not control Kennedy. They had to bump him off one week after signing a presidential order to end the fed res.

    ReplyDelete
  151. OPEC helping the Anointed one get elected for another term.

    Priceless

    ReplyDelete
  152. @Old Navy - THANK YOU.... glad someone has a sense of humour...

    ReplyDelete
  153. uptofreedom:

    you probably have it right (I hope so) as I also see a run up but my version has a sudden and strong run up where if you blink you miss the initial run. Kind of like when cartel attacks comes out of nowhere and suddenly silver is down a buck in 3 minutes of suddenly out of nowhere trading. of course they have unwitting help from black box hedgies and whatever.

    but until someone explains who is going to buy a couple of trillion of US new debt when the Fed is not buying I really have to like PM.

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  154. last time my pal benny and the presses spoke silver was down hard before he began. Review your chart. This time maybe we go in up and come down hard.

    ReplyDelete
  155. @ewc,

    In 100% agreement. There's no way out of this with the dollar surviving. No one has provided that road map because none exists.

    ReplyDelete
  156. My personal feeling is that we're rounding based off 35 again (last was 4/23- 5/3) which should bring us back near 37.3 today before back down to test 35 by the end of the week.

    For now, trading on the bands while sitting on a decent short position... and - sorry, all - but hoping 35 doesn't hold on friday.

    Of course... there's a big wrench getting lobbed into the machine here in a couple hours, so WTFK, eh?

    ReplyDelete
  157. I need to set a timer.... 2hr 40mins and counting...

    ReplyDelete
  158. @uptofreedom
    I'm with you, that's why I don't trade certain assets at all. Every day I'm further and further from being all out, as some accounts grow (and I add to them) while others are in flux. Maybe something you want to look into also?

    Even on a 4hr you should have lightened up earlier at 37.50, we busted through the top Bollinger..your re-buy target would be 35.50 or lower. My opinion, that's still a short chart if you're on a T+3 schedule, silver can move that the full range in a single 24 hr period.

    ReplyDelete
  159. How long is he going to speak? Is it possible nothing will really happen until after market hours since it's so close to EOD? Why is he speaking so close to the end of the trading day, to avoid a potential broad sell off in the markets (i.e. give ppl a chance to process what he said)? Just thinking outloud.

    ReplyDelete
  160. @flaunt... silver never sleeps..... (well a 45min break and weekends)

    ReplyDelete
  161. I have to admit I am happy. Sometime during lunch I got my buys at $38 for crude and $36.6 for silver - and both are now up!

    ReplyDelete
  162. @Pailin - Would've, but couldn't trade then. IRA's at USAA, can only trade between 9:30 and 4.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Indirect bidders buy 35.6% of 3-year auction
    Bidders offer $3.28 for each $1 in 3-year debt
    U.S. sells 3-yr debt at lowest yield in 7 months

    ReplyDelete
  164. Citigroup, B. of A. profit outlook cut by Sandler

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroup-b-of-a-profit-outlook-cut-by-sandler-2011-06-07?link=MW_story_latest_news

    ReplyDelete
  165. @ Ben Bernanke

    Bring it. Your short term manipulations don't scare us--we know how to make money from them & we get to add physical at a cheaper price.

    Long term you're screwed.

    ReplyDelete
  166. @uptofreedom
    That's why I day trade Forex.com and leave the NYSE hours account alone. Sorry for not being more clear initially...Forex allows 24 hr trade, but of course you get a lot less sleep :), part of the reason why I'm backing off to seasonal trend trading.

    ReplyDelete
  167. this Thursday (pay day) I plan to buy more silver (part of my bi-weekly accumulation)...

    When is a good time of the day to do so given the whole "flying monkeys" thing? My window is from 8:30am - 4:30pm EDT

    Any & all advice would be appreciated. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  168. going short some crude, black gold, texas tea.

    ReplyDelete
  169. @sockeye
    Cain=FED=FED renewal

    wow, didn't know that.

    I wish I could buy Herman Cain futures. That's a lock.

    ReplyDelete
  170. ncot - I know silver is pretty much always trading. I was talking about a stock market selloff. BB may be worried about that which is why he's scheduled so close to market close. Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  171. @uptofreedom
    One more thing, there's an old SLV rule that works really well in a tough silver market - sell the open and buy the close. If you do it religiously, whether it's a gainer or loser in the moment, you should make out much better than buy/hold due to the way the market climbs overnight and is weak to negative during US hours.

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  172. Been thinking about opening a forex account for exactly that reason. Got an Oanda account I've been practicing my TA with, but for now my only paper silver is in my IRA.

    ReplyDelete
  173. @NCOT

    My humorcard, I never leave home without it. :)

    ReplyDelete
  174. Pailin - Don't you have to execute that trade in futures rather than SLV? Just thinking about all the times I've seen a big sell off in silver just before market open, almost like it's done on purpose to screw stock traders.

    ReplyDelete
  175. The Ben Bernankie troll would be a lot more convincing if he posted a comment shortly prior to an EE raid rather than after.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Atlee, you know you've got API inventory numbers out at @ 4:30 today and DOE tomorrow at 10:30 am. FYI

    ReplyDelete
  177. I usually try to hold my trading positions longer term. This is because I'm usually such a crappy trader. But I made some OK quick profits on some short term trades along side my longer term positions. I'll continue trying this until it stops working.

    ReplyDelete
  178. @ DE
    Yes thanks. Got a stop at $100.50

    ReplyDelete
  179. This is all part of the game plan. Funny many do not see this yet. TPTB do not want the market too rise they want it to crash ...Save me Mr. Big Government save my 401k...We need at least a few thousand more points down before any talk of additional money is added in the toxic soup.. Plan accordingly.

    Just look at today's action, in reality we are trading flat.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Some new trading commentary from James Turk:

    "Trading Comments, 7 June 2011 (posted 09h15 CET):
    The evidence continues to mount that the low point of this correction is probably behind us. But we may have more back-&-filling to re-test support. For now, gold is leading, so the gold/silver ratio may still reach my mid-40s target. When this ratio starts falling again, it will be another signal the correction has ended."


    There's a bit more here. Turk outlines his specific buys and sell-stops
    http://www.fgmr.com/trading-current-positions.html

    ReplyDelete