Friday, May 13, 2011

Friday The 13th

This day has been brutal. If it could go wrong, it did. I'm exhausted but you need a new thread so here it is.

In summary, the metals had a great day. Gold rolled all the way up to 1515 before being savagely attacked and driven back to 1485 (a higher low, once again). It settled this afternoon at 1495, however, so it looks good for next week. Silver got to 36.50 overnight last night and then got kicked all the way back to 33.90 (a higher low) before rebounding. This, too, looks good.



Next week will likely be one of upward consolidation. The risk:reward profile is rapidly shifting in our favor. There will likely be another attempt at a takedown sometime next week but the higher lows on gold and the strength in silver between 33 and 34 is eventually going to bring buyers back into these markets. Of that, you can be certain.

That's it for tonight. It's been a long day and I think I'll go knock back some fine chianti to take the edge off. I promise you a comprehensive week in review/preview tomorrow. The Wicked Witch has a few things to say, too, but she may not have time to make an appearance. I'll let you know. Turd out.

325 comments:

  1. Time to shift the BTFD-area from 31.5 to 33?

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  2. Looks like the order of the posting is a little out of whack. Might be kinda lonely around the thread for a while.

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  3. Harvey Called Thursday "The Battle of Waterloo", and "Gold and Silver Won"

    Particularly of note on Thursday from his commentary:

    GLD inventory changes: May 11.2011 :

    Total Gold in Trust
    Tonnes: 1,193.16
    Ounces:38,361,367.72
    Value US$:
    57,129,414,755.57

    Total Gold in Trust May 10:
    Tonnes: 1,201.95
    Ounces:38,644,033.41
    Value US$:
    58,035,405,362.86

    Yikes!! That is a lot of gold down the drain. He goes on to say:

    I am totally flabbergasted at this. We have been witnessing this vehicle lose gold inventory now for the past several months despite gold setting record prices. This is not liquidation. This is gold leaving the vaults of the GLD and being used to settle upon sovereigns wishing to put their gold onto their shores. Only one slight problem here; the gold does not belong to them.
    It belongs to the Bank of England who swapped their gold for cash. The transaction must be unwound at the whim of the Bank.
    What is even scarier, is the gold is not the Bank of England's either. They are using depositors gold such as Arab interests etc.
    Thus the gold swapped is a liability of the Bank. No doubt that this will be a much bigger bang than a default at the comex or LBMA.

    --
    Yikes... this will end interesting...

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  4. ...appreciate your faithfulness Turd. About the Chianti, what is your preferred brand? I don't drink Chianti. My preferred is a Pinot Noir after a long week of work. I was on the wagon for 30 years, so Im lacking wine knowledge.

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  5. I have some fears for Monday. Resistances are a technical and psychological phenomenon. A failed debt monetization will break them or prove them I think. I will watch this Monday intently. If the powers that be want to make the market turn down violently to get the authority to print money, or to get a taste for what the market will do under stress of a cessation of printing Monday will be a prime moment to get a grip on how hard the market will crash and how well they can control it. If they choose to back this market off quickly I think Monday will be the picture of the first days of a broad reversal might look like in future days.

    Monday may be a good day to judge just how hard manipulation can push into resistance and information on how this market might turn, and if the PM's go with it or not. Exciting times.

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  6. BLOGSPOT.COM IS UP AGAIN.
Click below to read why silver market manipulation will not end soon:

    
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-to-end-soon.html

    
If you haven't seen it yet, click on the next link to watch a hilarious animation telling you why you should buy physical silver:

    
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-regain-your.html

    Finally, click on this last link to read why the CFTC is doing nothing about market manipulation:

    
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/04/reason-why-cftc-is-doing-nothing.html

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  7. Membership fee?

    Well, here's my take on it.

    You have earned the right to charge anything you want.

    On the other hand, one of the things that have made this forum great is not only the fact that you are helping people, but bringing people together under one flag.I think charging is defeating one of the ideas that make your blog so great.

    As far as trolls go, Well, We're big kids now. We can handle the trolls.Besides we could use a little Yang in our Yin. What happens when you have no balance?

    Daniel:When do I learn how to punch?

    Miyagi: Better learn balance. Balance is key. Balance good, karate good. Everything good. Balance bad, better pack up, go home. Understand?

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  8. Did anybody notice that the silver bots sell off from the day's peak usually last for roughly 6 hours only?

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  9. Turd: curious to know which month you're going to be buying silver calls for and at what strike price

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  10. I prefer kitco's live silver price to choose the entry point: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif
    as I can compare the previous days' charts

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  11. @The Fonz I'm with you. Gold, and especially silver, were pretty much tracking the Dow today. My fear is that we're going to see a repeat of 2008 and that a second beat-down is coming over the next couple of weeks for PM's, especially silver. Oh well, no matter - if it does, it'll give me a chance to short SLV on the way down and buy some physical and paper on the cheap.

    Turd, I would really love to hear your analysis of the current state of the equities market - a lot of people are talking about a coming correction in equities, and I'd love to hear what you think about the probability of this happening and the short and medium-term effect this will have on PM's.

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  12. Next week the The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange starts trading gold. It should cost the COMEX about 30% of it's market and it's monopoly. Silver to follow. Should be an interesting week.

    Thanks TF

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  13. blogspots acting pretty weird these last few hours. I think we have some minocks chewing on the power cables.

    @CD from previos thread: I KNEW it! stabilize rear deflectors and watch for enemy fighters. And of course, stay on target..

    I have to also echo sentiments of F about the proposed changes to this site. This place has become much more than a blog, its a community, and as much as I come here for the Turd, I also very much enjoy the posts of xty, atlee, eric#1, afrum, yukon and yes, even vamoose.

    We should all make it a point to help Turd out, not just by clicking ads and feeding the turd but don't feed the trolls. Even to call someone out as a troll is just wasting everyones time. Disinformation bots can't help but make themselves very obvious as soon as their comments come up, and they are easily ignored.

    We can without serious effort be a self regulating community with only a few guidelines and policies instigated by turds web programmers. To apply such a blunt instrument as a paid only 'premium' section as a panacea to our current problems would like trying to brush your teeth with a hammer. as in "once we start doing it this way we won't need to brush our teeth at all anymore! alright!"

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  14. ZSL puts?

    I remain all in-- physical. Horrendous month so far. So it goes. Life is good nonetheless.

    I know PM will blow sky high at some point- Boom Zoom to the Moon ala Ralph Cramden.

    The EE (PTB) can indeed smash the market but not at will. They have startegies and tactics and limitations too. For one thing many of their minions are idiots-- like our pres and congress etc. Fundamentals and technical analysis can only do so much vs. thieving powerful manipulators.

    We can however learn their methods, their patterns and realize their desperation.

    I have a little cash to play the paper market and I want revenge in the form of profit.

    Turd et al what do you think of ZSL puts to play the Moon Shot? I know about Options decay and about Ultra slippage but I like the ZSL puts cause they're cheap and available out to 2013.

    ZSL puts: dumb newbie idea or interesting play?

    PS: Free Free Free-- keep it Free--- po' folk need advice/discussion too. Power to the People!

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  15. F...

    I'd be willing to wager that's the first Karate Kid quote ever posted on Turd's forum.

    Kudos...lol

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  16. If anyone hasn't noticed, today is a complete opposite of two Fridays ago (4/29), before the Sunday night massacre. If you recall, everything was up big that day, equities, crude, and metals...all except silver. If I recall, gold was up around $20' platinum and palladium were also up big, but silver was down 54 cents.

    Today, everything was down big...except for silver.

    Silver had every reason to be down today but it was up. Someone was buying big.

    Additionally, Clive Maund believes silver has completed its first corrective wave down and is now poised for a move back up before dropping again and the strength of silver last night and resilience today is telling. (to the Maund detractors, he has been spot on the past few months).

    I doubt we'll see a reverse of May 1 this Sunday night, i.e. up $6 within minutes of the open but today's activity bodes well for next week.

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  17. The FONZ is scared of NOTHING! Recognize

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  18. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  19. Via Jesse- -

    Let's see how the LBMA and Crimex like them apples:

    "Shanghai Gold Exchange cuts silver margins, volumes soar"

    http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shanghai_gold_exchange_to_cut_silver_margin_requirements_/3221517685e72110809b7bf7b70b2b37

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  20. I have a comment concerning charging a fee...I am a newbie and found you by someone giving this site a thumbs up at another site. I have been reading and learning and preparing. I have no issues with you charging as I think you deserve it BUT I don't think I would have bothered if I would have had to pay first...you would have been lumped in with the other thousand sites who charge for their "wisdom" and I would have never known that there really was wisdom here. Maybe if you want to charge a fee you could follow along the same lines as AVS forum. You can read all you want for free, if you want to post you have to register with real info and there are member only areas that requiring paying a small fee. Maybe in your member only areas there could be some teaching offered...some how to's as far as trading/options, best sites to learn from, etc.. those would be of value to me and I would pay. Thanks for at leats considering...I love this community...I do feel it is just that...I missed it so much last night and early today.

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  21. Does anyone plant to trade silver for gold if/when the gsr heads back under 20to1?

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  22. I suppose my original thinking on the fee got swallowed by the blogger problems.

    I'm very conflicted about it. Turd himself has posted some very sound reasons in the past on why it should be free. On the other hand, a troll or two can send the comments off topic for half a day at a crack sometimes and it gets pretty tiresome.

    If push came to shove, I'd still vote for free. If we could get some controls here or there, to ignore who we want, or junk who we want, or some such thing, maybe that would suffice.

    I know for me, much of my original impetus to start posting was the fact that I'd see perfectly good, well meant questions from newcomers on the blog and if I didn't see an answer pretty darn quick I'd think "Well, heck, I'll take a stab at it." My feeling was if you get that new person who ginned up the courage to make their first post, and if they got an answer right away, or a congratulations, or a "welcome aboard", then you've got a reader and poster for the long haul. And I think we are all richer for it. If I've ever added anything to this blog I think that's it.

    And if we put in a fee, then I don't think we get those casual, cautious new posters and much of my original reason for being goes away.

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  23. fredco

    Waiting patiently for GSR 1/20. AG into AU and later AU into real estate. My optimistic plan.

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  24. It would take a Bear/AIG/Lehman for another 2008
    which is possible but not probable, the system would not handle it, it would be game over.
    But I would welcome it with loaded arms as I lived thru it once and I am far better armed and battle tested bought THM,Minco,REE and several other 10x ++ in Dec.'08. Swam two years underwater in everything I bought in aug.'08 watched it crash, bought the crash way before BTFD. Find some strength my friends
    the bad shit is straight ahead. DARWIN UP This will be far worse than any of us imagine. But we will survive. The only thing I fear is PAPER in my pocket.

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  25. Bull: others may have different ideas, but I have found that, when playing options on the double-leveraged metal ETFs, buy CALLS on the direction you want to go i.e. AGQ for up, ZSL for down. For some reason, trying to take a contrarian direction using puts just doesn't work very well--maybe it has something to do with the derivative structure of these ETFs.

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  26. Hong Kong silver market to open on 18 May --
    How will it affect trading and silver's price?
    =========================================


    Hogie2010 wrote:
    ==================================
    Next week the The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange starts trading gold. It should cost the COMEX about 30% of it's market and it's monopoly. Silver to follow. Should be an interesting week.

    May 13, 2011 8:32 PM
    ==================================

    Hogie2010,

    According to an article on ZeroHedge today, Friday, the Hong Kong exchange will begin trading silver futures contracts on 18 May. And, for me, this raises a huge question: how will this development affect the short-term price of silver? This is an important question for anyone still holding shares of AGQ that were bought before the "Bin Laden dip" of 2 May.

    Folks, do you have any opinions on this matter? I especially seek comment from those who live in East Asia, such as our own "JoeKa" or "AverageJoe," one of whom (cannot remember which Joe) lives in Singapore. How about it, Joe? Could you please comment?

    Pailin, Atlee, Justin, Yukon Cornelius, ScottJ88, DarkPurpleHaze, and The Turd? Any opinions?

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  27. If it's not too late, I DEFINITELY vote for $20 registration fee to leave comments.

    This won't get rid of all the trolls, but it would help. Who can't afford $20?

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  28. Old Navy - read your post on the last thread. I feel for ya, man. It's disheartening to see the mining shares and your investments go down like that. I'm in the same boat (pun intended for a Navy guy), and I stayed too long for the same reasons as you.

    It's a really tough market for those of us that don't trade futures puts, calls, etc. But I know better than to stay like I did. Greed. Irrational exuberance. Whatever. I got stopped out at decent levels in 2008, but due to the impending EE fat finger flash crash potential, I had none this time around.

    While this is a bad time for a non-pro investor it's a great time for a savvy trader. Scary risky, but potentially big profits.

    In the meantime, hold on if you can to those mining shares. They'll be back with a vengeance. If I've learned anything these last 4 years following and learning about this stuff, it's that gold and silver will prevail. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

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  29. I think it would be a big mistake to charge to post a comment. That is not the solution. May I suggest that first you consider having moderators on your new site and having the following rules.

    1. Anyone who post for the purpose of continuing a debate or verbal war whose sole purpose is to name call or launch ad hominem attacks against another poster will be banned.

    2. Anyone who maliciously attacks Turd because he does not call every tick accurately 100 per cent of the time will be banned.

    3. Anyone who maliciously attacks Turds integrity or motives for creating this free forum for debate and mutual edification will be banned.

    4. Anyone who appears to post only to stir up hate and discontent in this community while adding nothing of informational or philosophical value will be banned.

    The problem as I see it is, too many people are undisciplined in their debating skills and are easily sucked into an exchange of name calling and waste theirs and others time in long tirades of self defense back and forth.

    I think that most of you value highly this forum precisely because it has not been like zero hedge where there are constant vitriolic attacks amongst those who have profoundly different views of the fundamentals affecting the metals markets. Such individuals do not know how to defend their positions without resorting to vicious personal attacks. I think we can self police in such a way as to discourage this kind of useless debate and arguing by posting the basic rules, having a few good moderators who understand the rules, and policing ourselves as we have done so far, with great success in my humble opinion.

    At the very least, grandfather in those who have already established and proven that they are civil and have added immensely to the high level of discourse and value of this forum.

    Finally,if you do have to charge, allow those members who do not wish to pay online, for the sake of privacy, a way to pay by check.

    Thank you Turd Ferguson for the best blog on the internet and considering my suggestions to hopefully make it even better.

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  30. New website -- Charging a fee for
    usage of -- Advisable?? NO!!!
    ================================


    I am reposting this, my comment from yesterday, 12 May, because it was deleted from BlogSpot and b/c I believe that The Turd is still interested in soliciting opinions on this issue.

    The Turd wrote:
    ==================================
    P.S. Should we charge a one-time "membership fee" for the new site? Maybe 20 bucks or something. Just enough to keep troublemakers [and trolls] out. The site would still be free for all to read, but only paid "members" could comment to the blog, chatroom and forums.
    I don't know [whether] I like this idea, but it's not about me. It's whether you think it would be useful.
    ==================================

    Turd,

    IMO, if you want to make the new website as successful and as popular as possible, then you should not charge anything except for premium services. IMO, you should follow the "Slashdot method," which is to make everything free except for premium services. Slashdot became the most popular and sucessful technology website for a reason. Please mull that reason carefully.

    I am wondering whether Blogspot will allow me to post this comment. Well, I shall soon find out.

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  32. A few weeks ago we spent some time talking about Richard Maybury and his newsletter. If interested, there's a new interview with him making the rounds.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20964/the-fall-of-the-us-empire-and-the-breakup-of-the-geopolitical-matrix

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  33. @Titus: Precisely! Who can't afford $20? Even trolls...especially if they're DIA?

    I have no issues paying.
    Best and most effective solution though is to IGNORE.

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  34. Turd, I hope you're not having Fava beans with that Chianti. Just sayin...

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  35. The POSX just broke out of it's 50 day moving avg. Ominous? I'm wondering what anyone's thoughts are on that. Almost looks ripe for another big drop.

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  36. Once in ahwhile you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.R.Hunter.

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  37. Chianti? I hope you're not having that with liver and fava beans. That's a no-no. Just kidding.

    Hey, here's an idea Turd; take a whole weekend off. No new threads at all. We'll survive. We'll get past the delerium tremens. Spend some time with Mrs. Turd and the wee Turdlings.

    You've earned it and more.

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  38. Here's a candlestick of the GDXJ. I'm just a junior ranger level chartist, but that looks like a seriously disturbed chart to me. Anyone thinking there's a bottom there is engaging in some bigtime wishful thinking. And this is coming from a guy who owns a whole list full of miners. Not Happy. :(

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ

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  39. Eric,
    Just catching up on comments and caught your post about options. :O

    I'm worried about your sleep now. :D

    Seriously, from all I 'know' about you from reading here you will be one of the most cautious and careful options players. You already know alot of the things that many of us are just learning. What will you buy? ..When will you buy it? ...And will you chase price down like SOMEBODY I know did just this week? (who, MEE?) :D

    Ok.. I can't wait to see how you do. And more importantly .......I can't wait to see what I will learn from you!! ;)

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  40. Eric#1 said
    "My feeling was if you get that new person who ginned up the courage to make their first post, and if they got an answer right away, or a congratulations, or a "welcome aboard", then you've got a reader and poster for the long haul. And I think we are all richer for it. If I've ever added anything to this blog I think that's it.

    And if we put in a fee, then I don't think we get those casual, cautious new posters and much of my original reason for being goes away."
    May 13, 2011 9:00 PM

    Well said Eric.
    My feelings would be along these lines as well.
    Though the insight and guidance provided here appears to be INVALUABLE!
    Thank you Mr. Ferguson for the time and effort put forth here. I hope the "community" is able to reciprocate something of value back for you!

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  41. Ginger

    Contemplating SELLING covered calls. Opposite side of the trade from most options players, sorry to say. Selling covered calls is pretty much the single most conservative thing a person can do in options. You should read up on it.

    It has it's own risks of course, but for one thing I wouldn't have Theta eating my lunch day in and day out. I'm all for that. Wish me luck, I may need it. :D

    Anybody else got some words of wisdom for me?

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  42. @Paul: with regards to your question on the HKMEx. They will be initially trading GOLD futures contracts from May 18 and not other metals, though there is a plan to eventually offer silver and other precious metals, base metals, energy and others.

    First thing that should strike as interesting is the contract size - 1 Kilo. This is a smaller buy-in than what the COMEX offers I believe. Hence this should attract a fairly positive demand and volume from East Asia wishing to trade in these metals futures.

    Secondly the advent of the HKMEx should provide added liquidity and Market depth into the precious metals Market starting with Gold. If one exchange Risk Offs, another Market might just do the opposite and Risk On. So if all markets flow in the same direction, we could get get some serious spot price action - upside and downside.

    Third, the Market in East Asia is predominantly Physical driven. In understanding this I see two possible effects or consequences:

    i) they also realise that manipulating the paper markets is an effective method of accumulating more Physical at discount,

    ii) they play both independently physical and paper and in so doing achieve their objective of having more "say" in price discovery.

    So it remains inconclusive what the nett effect will be on true price discovery. There are arguments for and against this. FYI Morgan Stanley is one of three clearing houses for contracts and they also helped set-up this system for the HKMEx, if that has any bearing on the outcome at all.

    Also note that the Chinese are the biggest gamblers in the world. And if trading paper precious metals futures contracts are akin to 'gambling' as some here would argue, then we're all in for a wild ride - Up & Down!

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  43. Eric,
    Of course I wish you luck. .....I just think you'll do very well. :]

    Yep.. I've read some about selling covered calls. Not nearly enough of an adrenaline rush for me.

    I'M KIDDING! ...lol.

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  44. keep the faith Turd, we are right they are wrong.

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  45. Ginger

    Of course, it's boring.


    Old "Get Rich Slow" Eric

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  46. @Paul: also the trading hours for the HKMEx is interesting:

    Trading hours for the HKMEx gold contract will extend from 0800 HKT to 2300 HKT, opening with TOCOM in Japan and encompassing the London Bullion Market Association AM Fixing, the opening of COMEX, and the LBMA PM Fixing. The HKMEx opening auction will run from 0730 to 0800.


    What happens to "banging the close" now?

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  47. Eric,
    One more thing... I've been thinking lately. I sure don't know nearly all that I should know to seriously be working with options. But... I think I sort of prefer the 'Forrest Gump' approach to options. ...In other words there is a certain amount of freedom, simplicity, and happiness in just not knowing everything. Does that make sense? I really don't have the time to read every book or to add one more thing to my list of stuff to stress over. It's kind of like if I don't know that I can't do it....well, then I can most likely do it.

    Trading options is kind of like a box of chocolates. You truly never KNOW what you're gonna get. So, I just pay my $ and go for it utilizing mostly only a good portion of common sense. ....I'm running and I'm not going to stop until I get to my destination. I'll get there too. ...Eventually. ;)

    Simple approach. ..But probably not recommended. lol.

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  48. Does anyone feel the "wedge" on the gold chart indicates a breakout move upward on Monday? I'd like to scarf up a few grams, but am quite cautious about the potential slaughter in July-Aug. Yes, I'm long but still.

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  49. "What we didn’t anticipate of course is the rapidity with which gold and silver pulled back, particularly silver which was on a parabolic rise prior to the pullback that we witnessed. I certainly think that (silver) was due for a good reversal of what appeared to be an interim speculative bubble. But longer-term you can’t deny that silver has just come out of a 30 year basing process and I think is in a longer-term bull market. But after you have this sort of speculative run-up and decline, you are probably going to have to see a period of weeks to months of a consolidation and reestablishing the next base from which price can pick up at a later date.... We haven’t had that many bull markets in it (silver). I think it’s intriguing that price went right back up to that major resistance of the old top and has stalled let’s say. It probably needs to come back and stabilize in the 30’s, I’d like to see it hold in the 30’s here.”

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/14_Louise_Yamada_-_$5,200_Gold_is_Long-Term_Channel_Target.html

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  50. "But after you have this sort of speculative run-up and decline, you are probably going to have to see a period of weeks to months of a consolidation and reestablishing the next base fom which price can pick up at a later date...."

    Well THAT was a depressing statement if you happen to have a couple of JULY call options. :D

    But it was an encouraging statement if you are hoping to accumulate more physical.

    Oh, the conflict that lives within my heart. :D

    "/

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  51. Shanghai Gold Exchange cuts silver margins, volumes soar.

    http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shanghai_gold_exchange_to_cut_silver_margin_requirements_/3221517685e72110809b7bf7b70b2b37

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  52. Greetings fellow Turdlings...
    I’ve given some thought to Turd’s question about some sort of fee structure for the new site, and here’s my thinking.
    I've been an avid reader of the blog since literally day 2, and have learned much from all of you in the past six months, such as:
    * Miner picks (along with DYODD caveats)
    * TA 101
    * Insights into options & futures
    * Macro-economic insights
    * etc.
    What’s the education been worth? To me, it’s worth a lot as I’ve done fairly well over the past 6 months, and have learned where my risk tolerance lies.

    I've fed the Turd on a couple of occasions, yet have no way to thank all of you for the education I’ve received as a result of the time, effort and thought put into your posts. I think there is real value in the free exchange of ideas, uncluttered by a bunch of troll-talk.

    That said, I think that a self-organized feedback mechanism would serve to keep the discussions productive and civil and allow for dissenting opinions. A rating system of some kind might prove useful, much like Amazon’s product rating 5 star system, or Ebay’s rating scheme with the number of transactions. Others have mentioned the “junking” feature at ZH. That way you'd know at a glance if the comments were from a tool, or a seasoned, and well respected community member.

    In addition, it would be helpful if the individual readers could set up their own filters of which bloggers they would filter higher or lower (or out altogether) and see them in that order. For example, I use the CTRL_F function to find posts from Atlee, Eric #1, Shill, SSK, Afrum and Ginger (for her broader preparedness commentary) among others, when I don’t have time to read everything. I would get to other posts when time permits, and would personally screen a few out that I don’t care to see again if I could set up filters of my own (by blogger and/or topic).

    I like the idea as well of some sort of commerce site within the overall structure (in addition to the Ads) where if we chose to make donations, pick up a Turd coffee cup, etc. with proceeds going to offset Turds time and $$ to run the show. I for one would show up to my kids soccer games wearing a T-shirt that says “Got Gold?” or “I fed the Turd” or a couple of Afrum-isms. Would at least spark a conversation with the sheeple nearby.

    Either way you go Turd, I’m in.

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  53. Dr Durden,I fear that we are hosed until at least Sept, ....

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  54. @ humahuaca (from last thread)

    And that’s why were not seing a mass exodus from the USD all at once. A slow organized devaluation of the USD and every gov’t saying “Nothing to see here… keep on moving”

    Times are changing fast. The US will not be the world’s largest consumer for very much longer. Manufacturing has been shipped overseas and I wouldn’t count on those jobs coming back anytime soon simply by devaluing the USD. Even if they do it would take years to ramp up manufacturing.

    The factories in China are much larger, more modern then US counterparts. Asian workers will work to put food on the table. American workers by contrast feel they are entitled earn $70,000 per year and thanks to unions work 5 hours a day, earn 8 hours pay, get sick pay, holiday pay, benefits, etc. I’m not saying they shouldn’t earn that but simply that business are not on a level playing field when operating costs are significantly less elsewhere.

    While a devalued USD may work to boost manufacturing in the US, productivity gains in Asia are very likely to be seen and will keep their products competitive in the face of a stronger Yuan in the short-mid term.

    I would argue that productivity gains are already being seen having visited factories in the USA and in China. In 2003 I sourced products from the US. Chinese competitive products were also available and prices were better however quality was poor. Processes simply weren’t there. By 2009 there was a night and day difference in products coming out of China. So much so that I shifted my purchases there. By 2011 many companies in my industry have either closed, consolidated, or been forced to purchase outside of the USA if they wish to remain competitive and in business.

    If the USD is devalued and the gov’t enacts tarrifs, than I would agree US manufacturing would increase somewhat however I would doubt exports would increase significantly. I would expect manufacturing to account for a larger percentage of domesic consumption but at the same time I would also expect domestic consumption to decrease by virtue of the reduced purchasing power of the USD.

    I need a glass of wine. :)

    ReplyDelete
  55. "I've fed the Turd on a couple of occasions, yet have no way to thank all of you for the education I’ve received as a result of the time, effort and thought put into your posts."

    Turd could give us all 'donate' buttons beside our posts. :D :D :D

    lol.. I am just feeling too silly tonight. :-D

    ReplyDelete
  56. I wonder what effect that shanghai gold exchange move is gonna impact the COMEX shills? 

    I'm guessing NIL.

    Also here's a further link to my earlier note on the HKMEx written by The Economist titled 'The Price Is Wrong'.

    www.economist.com/node/18682502?story_id=18682502

    ReplyDelete
  57. Hang10-Hawaii,
    Your ideas are well thought out for the new forum. I am among those that can hardly read the ZH comments. ..They are brutal and just always seem to dissolve into some kind of petty war over something. I really like the filter idea you suggested!

    BTW... I didn't read some posts for a few days.. does anyone know what happened to XTY? I feel like I missed something and keep waiting to hear/read what may have happened with her. I hope she's ok..??

    ReplyDelete
  58. Turd,

    If the sole purpose of charging a fee is to recoup website costs and maintenance, then that is fine. If the fee is to ward off trolls, then I don't agree with that. If users have an ignore feature, then that will solve the troll issue. We could even maintain a rolling list of trolls to help users. You are getting huge site visits because of the open community, I don't think the upside to a subscription is worth it.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Ginger said:
    "In other words there is a certain amount of freedom, simplicity, and happiness in just not knowing everything."

    My opinion, yes it totally makes sense.

    IMHO, you are in a very sweet spot right now. You've set aside a $ amount that you are prepared to risk and maybe you lose the whole works, but it won't break you. You can swing for the fences on every pitch. You have a fresh outlook on everything.

    Me, I tend to be haunted by an accumulation of scars. My first trial by fire was the Crash of '87. There was another big stinker around '91 or so. Later in the '90's was the LTCM Crisis and the Russian Debt Crisis. Then the Tech Bubble, and then of course 2008-2009 to top it all off.

    I seem to be getting more and more gunshy everyday. And it's not a good thing.

    ReplyDelete
  60. a troll will pay and then what's next?...perhaps give refund their money because they disgust us...I say have a way to flag them and after X amount of flags deny their IP access...

    ReplyDelete
  61. Ginger
    xty seemed to be just fine. She was using a pirate avatar. Then I saw one post which had no picture at all, and then.........nothing. So I assumed for a while that she was having problems with Blogger, but that is getting to be a couple of weeks ago now. No idea.

    ReplyDelete
  62. You know Eric.. ..we're about the same age. I marvel at your and others level of awareness during the past decade and beyond ..and I wonder WHERE WAS I during all of this? Truly, I was one of the sheeple. Just living my life and blindly believing that the PTB would not harm us. They were FOR US and wanted the BEST for us.
    *choke*

    What you gained over me in your head start of awareness was a head start in preparing. You've been around the block. You have those battle scars. I guess you can even STILL sense my sheppleness in that I don't know everything and don't want to. I just want it to be simple. There is a certain level of comfort in 'not knowing' but of course there is a price to pay for that obliviousness. So.. you make me see that we don't have the luxury of playing it too simply and in being too trusting. That is a hold over attitude from my sheeple days I think.

    You aren't really gunshy. You are just seasoned and battle hardened, have taken your share of bullets, and you know where the bodies are buried. Yet you see others of us not even being fully aware that there's even a minefield up ahead. You still know a good trade when you see one and you are still out there swinging and winning the game for your family. (Albeit in a very reasoned, list-making, well thought out self-respecting virgo sort of way ;)

    ...I could learn a thing or two from you. ...And I have.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Turd, I see lots of comments on having a free site vs a pay site, and I gotta comment.

    KEEP IT FREE AND OPEN!

    The diversity of comments and perceptions is a big part of the value of the Turd community. Yeah the AGA's turn up, and shit on the stoop, but who steps in it?

    What's worse than a troll infested discussion? I'll tell you what's worse. A hand holding kum-by-yah group think!

    Don't fuckin do it!

    The load is on you dude. You will have to maintain what you started. Give yourself lots of tools to hose the shit down (seriously, get the fuck OFF my lawn) and empower the Turdites to tag and flush the BS away.

    Keep doing what you're doing. A 48 hour Blogger outage just validated your efforts.

    There is no substitute. This is the BEST precious metals trading community on the web.

    Just a little breeze from the edge.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Ging
    Nothing from Irene either. Though I think she did say something about being out of town for a while. Family issues going on too.

    Nothing from Erica either. She was pretty nervous buying a bunch of physical. I worry about how she's handling this pullback.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Yikes.. you're right Eric.. ..Now that you mention it I haven't heard from Irene or Erica lately.. ..Just thought I'd been missing a bunch of posts.. but XTY's absence seems to have been very prolonged.

    I hope all are ok and that they will chime in soon. They need to know that This Too Shall Pass! ...The metals are going where we all know the metals are going in the long term..

    ReplyDelete
  66. Silver above 36, I'm betting rally, briefly.
    Up or down, feels like one more drop coming, esp w/ dollar rally.
    Dr. Durden I saw gold's higher lows lower highs means could go either way. My bet is down, but only in the sense I won't be buying it this wknd.
    If silver gets to 29, I'm clearing out the coin shop.

    ReplyDelete
  67. not sure what is the "smart" move...
    Have some $ burning a hole in my pocket... and want to buy some more physical... but is this looking to pull back further? lol! good question huh?
    If you had couple k to put to work, what would you look at?
    I was stacking till back in Feb. when the price went crazy. I held off, thank god!... but now the Metals call, as the Paper falls...

    ReplyDelete
  68. ...Or.. aNOTHER way to look at it is....maybe if I be quiet.. ..others can talk! :D :D

    ..Goodnight all! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  69. @JoeKa,
    If they're going to insult Turd, at least they have to pay him for the privilege. Let them. It is worth $20 to lower the noise a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  70. you guys happen to read this on APMEX commentary...
    Thought it was well written. http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/11/jp-morgan-hunt-afghan-gold/?iid=HP_Highlight

    ReplyDelete
  71. Gramp,

    I'm in the same boat. Did a little trading here and there but I'm still mostly in cash either waiting for June to hit or a nice dip to $33. $35 is like no-mans land to me. who knows which way we will swing. Likely $1 up and $2 down. :)

    Patience pays I've found so I'll sit tight until I get my entry point.

    In the meantime what scares me most is having all this money sitting in USD!

    Chianti was a good choice Turd. I popped one myslef. :)

    Have a great weekend all.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Eric, selling covered calls is the equivalent as selling a put (with half the commission cost). A covered call position will become painful when silver recovers in a big way.
    DS

    ReplyDelete
  73. Just cuz someone has a contrary view or doesn't agree with your opinion, doesn't mean they are a troll. It only means you yourself do not understand what trolling is. If you want to see real trolling go to /b/ and check that shit out. Seriously, I don't post much anymore after the one time I had a different opinion that everyone else and everyone was like, hey look at the new troll. I've been posting here for months. And all of a sudden I have one dissenting opinion and I'm labeled a troll, and you all don't even know what the term really means.

    These blog comments used to be useful. What a shame.

    ReplyDelete
  74. This membership business is a moot point. There won't be any noise on the new forums. You can put whoever you want on ignore and everything will be threaded. Turd can ban any IP he wants. Maybe you all are too used to blogger comments and don't know what a forum is.

    There's no need to charge a membership fee. You think ever family trying to prepare can afford $20 to read the comments? Hah. Think again.

    ReplyDelete
  75. How about a 1 month initiation for comments once the new site is up?
    All of us will be grandfathered in as well as current trolls but anyone booted or new would need a 1 month cool down phase before posting.
    Would make people think twice before being an idiot knowing they would be unable to post for a min of 1 month.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Why Growth is Dead

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/why-growth-dead/57764

    ReplyDelete
  77. Titus Andronicus said...

    This won't get rid of all the trolls, but it would help. Who can't afford $20?

    ----------------------

    What a pretentious comment. Maybe $20 is nothing to you but to me it's half a tank of gas and the ability to get to work for the next two weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Pablo,
    It's $20 to be able to post comments. Reading would still be free.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Poll:

    A: New site: $20 subscription
    B: New site: Were all in this together
    C: New Site: Turds site Turds decision.

    ReplyDelete
  80. ok,ok patience it is!
    I WILL b happy w/ phys. i have now.
    VERY happy about eeking last buys in "pre" launch/crash! Now, guess I will sit tight unless events dictate otherwise.
    Chances of PMs eroding back a bit further by june seem greater than chance of the Dollar "Crashing" by then.
    Not to get all "Mad Max", but maybe i will continue to improve my holdings of "physical" supplies, i.e. food/fuel. Really interested in a medium sized solar Generator, Power supply.
    We have a family camp in the North woods. Looses powere alot out there. Solar set up would be great there. Get to see how the system works too.

    ReplyDelete
  81. @LudaChris

    Who the hell is going to wait a month to post what they have to say?

    You guys are so overthinking this.

    I've previously been in charge of several forums of multiple thousands of users. I was a mod on a site with 75,000+ users for over three years. I think I know what I am talking about here! Heck I'd even mod this place for free!

    ReplyDelete
  82. @Titus

    What do you think half the reason is people come back here multiple times a day? The comments, obviously.

    Geez you guys are going to screw Turd over with your insistence on this. I know you don't mean it because you don't know, but geez if you want his new site to be a failure, go ahead and make it a members only club.

    If really need to charge a membership at least only charge it for premiums features, and at least make all the comments read-only for free.

    ReplyDelete
  83. DS
    Yes, given my underlying fundamental bullishness, it would be tough for me to sell a call on a very high beta silver miner. My buddy that keeps talking it up to me, I keep telling him, "yeah, but you don't want to get your best stocks called away from you". So, yeah I see those risks.

    Yet, not everything I own has to be silver miners. What if I owned something a bit more stodgy? Maybe CAT or DE? If it doesn't get called I pocket the premium. If it does, well that's life. Not the end of the world, and it doesn't leave me naked if silver and gold suddenly jump.

    I realize there's no free lunch here. Anything else I should be considering? I'm open to anything. This is a whole new thing for me. Contrary to what Ginger says, I DON'T know everything. :D

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  84. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  85. Turd, as a revenue generating feature I think you should have a 'consult the turd' button that will allow one to pose a simple question and get your opinion for $20. This will cut down on your email and help those of us who really need to some trading advice get thru the clutter.

    As for member or non-members I think $20 is a reasonable fee. A few nice member only features would be good incentive. Don't like the idea of disabling non-members from posting.

    ReplyDelete
  86. 6.2 earthquake in northeastern Japan.
    No reported damage, no tsunami warning.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Keep the site free and open. This is a community that benefits from all input. A fee to post will severely restrict new blood from entering the discussion which ultimately hurts everyone.

    I've actively been on forums for many years and there is a very simple way to keep the trolls in check. You need to appoint several moderators (volunteers) who have the necessary tact and humor to keep everyone on track and to take action if necessary.

    Moderators are also important in the continuing education of members to not give in to trolls and simply ignore the obvious ones. Attention is oxygen for trolls. Simply ignore them and watch how quickly they disappear.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Paper Empire, great post. Many trolls are merely hired guns that get paid to cause trouble and divert attention. I guess you can call them "drive-by posters."

    Eric, I started a lengthy post on writing Cash Backed Puts, but another day.

    ReplyDelete
  89. @Evil

    U sure your pay grade is high enough that you can post stuff like that on a blog and get away with it? Only the elites are untouchable.

    I am just paranoid.

    ReplyDelete
  90. I like the idea paid questions/answer. Minimum donation $1.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Mr. Ferguson, surely you must be aware that the amount of unwanted traffic and harmful words are a direct correlation to your success. After you have a glass or two,take a step back and try to see a bigger picture. Sure things people post might be painful to you and others here, but really they ARE only words. You know that saying about sticks and stones and words? Well, I think we all here know thats bullshit. Shakespeare said words are like a sharp knife cut without drawing blood, but if he were around today he would probably liken them more to bullets. Once they leave the proverbial barrel of the oral gun they can't be taken back, and only do damage if they reach their intended target.
    I'm not saying you need thicker skin, no way! I think if you just remember all the good your words have done compared to the bad a few miscreants and ee staff might do you will realize there is no need to drown out dissenting opinions with a fee, however nominal. I don't care about the fee one way or the other, unless the result is to lose good opinions like afrum, xty or vamoose.
    I'd pay alot more than $20 to read the Turd, but anyone who says that is not a lot of money should remember that still buys a 25 pound bag of rice that would feed a family of 4 for two weeks. Trolls don't bother me, they are just background noise. What bothers me is the apparent effect on morale of our commander in chief, president Ferguson. so do whatever you have to do man!

    ReplyDelete
  92. @Alex re:"I'm still mostly in cash"

    To me, paper and electronic cash seem a dangerous place to be "mostly in" for long..

    In "preparation for the end of..", you may want to consider a couple of thousand US$/FRN in the form of nickels. They can be bought today at a discount to NAV of 21 per cent (see coinflation.com). If deflation hits before hyperinflation kicks in then you can alway get back the nominal amount of FRN's you spent for the nickels.

    At some point nickels will trade for close to melt value, just like gold, silver, and copper coins before them.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Eric,

    While I'm not an options expert, I have been playing them quite a bit of late; maybe some of these ideas will work for you.

    1. I had a bunch of SLV shares. When prices got high, I sold them, and bought an equivalent number of DITM Jan 12 calls.

    Why?: DITM calls carry almost NO theta. More cash in my acct, and delta (price movement)pretty close to 100% of the underlying. I trade mostly out of my IRA, and it gives me 2 or 3x leverage.

    2. Sell DITM calls against stuff you want to hold.

    Why?: Started doing this a week or two ago; what I didn't sell outright (hi-divs with low cost basis)I sold DITM calls in October against. Mkt up, oh well, cheap insurance, buy em back. Mkt down I reduce my cost basis. After today, I'm down on all my remaining positions, but way less than I would be with naked stocks because of the high delta of DITM calls.

    3. Day-trade SLV Options +/- 1 Strike on Options Expiry

    Why?: 1 strike ITM options trade with only a 2-3cent premium to the underlying, but cost like maybe $1.50. 100sh SLV at 35 is $3500. Transaction costs RT might be $.20, so you need to catch a move of $.21 before you're green. For the same 3500, I can buy 23 puts or calls (2300 sh), at a slightly higher roundtrip cost. If you swing trade, catching a $.20 move nets about $400 or so, after costs. Again, I'm trading out of my IRA, so no margin, and 23x leverage can be helpful (or HURTFUL!!!!!). Assume you'll lose it all, and scale your bet size to your max pain tolerance. And take profits before the damn thing does a 180!! I lost more unrealized gains today because I got greedy, and didn't follow my discipline of taking profits at 50% gain.

    As aside, although I made money on my AGQ trades this week, that stuff is just too crazy even for my crazy ass. And I'm really crazy.

    Ok, commence with the rotten vegetable and excrement tossing, all you Turds!

    ReplyDelete
  94. smarsack61

    Good stuff. Thanks.

    My friend that does this stuff, I think he sells OTM calls on his stuff he'd like to keep. Like if he has a stock at 55, he'll sell a 60 call on it and hope it never gets there. Does that make any sense? I may have some details wrong. Having lunch w/ him tomorrow and he'll lay it all out for me.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Eric,

    Everything we do is a bet on the future, in one form or another, even holding cash. Your friend is making a lot of sense with the OTM calls, especially since the market looks ready to break down, IMHO.

    The reason I use Deep In The Money calls (right now) is that I'm expecting the market to tank while the battle of the budget and the future of QE is discussed and that I'll buy the calls back cheaper. They give me a lot more protection on the downside, potentially up to the full premium at expiration, and free up cash for bargain hunting if we get a big flash crash, Fukushima, Planet-X type event.

    Anyways, Selling slightly OTM upside calls in this Fed inflated mkt, for the last few months hasn't been a winner in my trade book, but it'll depend on the individual instrument. For example, selling OTM SLV call since the January lows had been an exercise in frustration.

    ReplyDelete
  96. turd,

    john wooden said, "Even the Mona Lisa has it critics." I would imagine everyone of us here have listened to BS and have to wade thru it in life, for my 2 cents, I'm shocked you let 2% bother you ... Look around, everyone gets shit deserved or not in this life when they stick their nose out in a public arena... people here know who the doofuses are; inhale, chant a couple Ohmmms, and be big enough to get past it... as far as charging, you in the end will do what you want, polling people doesnt make much sense to me.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Thanks Turd and hope you have a restful night...

    In spite of the household chaos, I finally did manage to get my last buy of gold in today at 1494 spot. Not as low as it could have been but OK. At least I caught part of the dip to offset my silver buy in the low-mid 40's. GRRRR!!!

    ReplyDelete
  98. Great blog - really great blog.
    Just wondering if someone could tell me what is considered the best FREE service for charting silver and gold online, for short term trading purposes ?

    If no such service is available, what is the most cost effective paid service ?

    Many thanks for your help folks.

    ReplyDelete
  99. PS....checking the Bradley siderograph, it's looking like gold should have a pretty strong rise within the next couple of days. It may have a dip Mon-Tues, but after that it should move.
    I just bought it today because my schedule will have me very distracted early in the week...

    ReplyDelete
  100. Ah but the ability to ignore someone is quite simply the hardest thing to do...as I've witnessed on numerous blogs and forums.

    We're always itching to reply and prove that we know better or to shame the other party. And since this is an easy affliction the thread goes outta topic very quickly.

    The human propensity to show one-upmanship never fails to amaze.

    Paying will lower the signal to noise for sure but will never eliminate 'trolls', the definition of which can easily be swayed by groupthink. Appointment of moderators may help but again does not rule out groupthink will can eventually lead to a closed 'exclusive' community.

    I'm not exactly sure that's what we want.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Wow, what a week. And honestly, I wish I like many other people could see what the next two weeks will bring to us, as I think they are going to be ones of massive importance. There are just TOO many extreme points for something to not break break:

    The Dow is in a consolidation mode, seemingly going to crash or breakout to the upside in the coming week(s). Some fantastic charts can be found at one of my FAVORITE people to follow on the web, Jesse.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

    Conventional wisdom says the DOW should have a big correction, as it is over-priced and a further breakout would defy market fundamentals as GDP is in the toliet. Record short interest is hitting the NYSE again as reported by zerohedge, which says that a lot of money is betting on conventional wisdom to occur. It seems in 2008 the NYSE reached record short interest, and we all know how that played out.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/82046-nyse-short-interest-rises-to-another-record-high

    So the logical movement for the DOW would be down for fundamental reasons, why would it move up?

    Since 2008, the free market has been killed. What we have now is the FED (which is really apart of a Western Banking Cabal controlling the Euro, Pound, Yen,...) completely painting the charts to fit their public relations campaign. This is perception management at its finest, and they will stop at no lengths to tell the story they wish to create. Just look at manipulated unemployment figures, misleading CPI, phoney strong-dollar policy, suppression of PMs, and etc... and you can see that they really run it all (the conglomerate "EE," whoever they are).

    So this pretend and extend since 2008 can only go so far, so I feel it is imperative we all consider deadlines of events occuring. In my opinion, the timeline is sometime in 2012 for a change in currency (and subsequent loss of sole reserve currency of the world). I wrote a brief article about it: Federal Reserve Note: 1971-2012?.

    I find myself finding it a bit hard to believe myself sometimes, but it would really just make a lot of sense from as far as I can tell.

    So what does this bring upon Americans if this is to be the case? Swift devaluation of their savings and threat of total currency collapse if "we do not move to a new system." This is where a push for some sort of global currency (or even continental currency) will be made by the global EE.

    Because of this timeline, I foresee it to be very possible that the stock market keeps "melting up" keeping the citizens and their false comforts of retirement (with social security already in question, the DOW cannot fail... a public relations NIGHTMARE) in tact while their countries freedom and prosperity dwindles at an alarmingly increasing rate.

    Continuing...

    ReplyDelete
  102. "what is considered the best FREE service for charting silver and gold online, for short term trading purposes?"

    If it's free live charts you're refering to, netdania is quite popular and versatile:

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    Comes with a full complement of studies, and detachable into its own window. I also understand that these charts update on a sub-second basis; correct me if I'm wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Why are people buying more PMs at this point? There are SIX WEEKS left in QE2. Cash will, temporarily, be king. POSX in the 80s king.

    I think 1400 gold (or even 1300) is more likely than 1600.

    This is the most obvious shorting opportunity I've ever seen. I am itching to buy puts on the Russell 2000, SP, treasuries, etc. I expect a 30% haircut by October unless they announce more QE.

    If the SP can creep back up to 1350 next week I am shorting it.

    Everything is trading together... SP500, gold, etc. For those of you anticipating a market crash and gold surge, that seems unlikely.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Unbelievably fail, lost my second part... and I did not copy and paste.

    Will finish thoughts tomorrow :(

    Only when all currencies make new highs will the true move in gold occur - Mike Maloney

    ReplyDelete
  105. Michael said :

    "If it's free live charts you're refering to, netdania is quite popular and versatile"

    Too damn right it is - exactly what I'm looking for !
    Many thanks

    ReplyDelete
  106. @Evil - thanks for your posting.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Most of us already know this, but for others who are unaware, watching this is very worthwhile


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuqZfaj34nc&feature=player_embedded

    ReplyDelete
  108. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  109. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  110. Technical indicators becoming really useless these days.

    ReplyDelete
  111. @Ferdinand
    That is a really good report from RT (russia today)
    and it is why RT is my favourite news channel, I never watch CNN, BBC etc. And of course it doesnt hurt that they have some pretty russian reporters ;)

    RE subscription on new site, I wouldnt mind at all paying a fee for the new site as I find the info to be too valuable. But after reading the comments it is probably best to leave it as it is and let the feed button do its work. I think most here can spot a troll from a mile away and usually its dealt with quickly.
    For me its more of a stability issue as we have seen the last couple of days with blogger.com.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Young Scott,

    President Elect Paul is on Fox News tomorrow. I watched a bit of fox this morning to get my reality fix (complete opposite of what they say). I love that I can watch the propoganda from Eurpe.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Turd, on a second thought, I suggest a similar structure to smartmoneytracker:

    -Make blog space freely available for people preparing for the coming economic crisis. I have learned more on this subject than anytime in my life from this blog during thee last six month and I believe this should be available to as many as people possible.

    -Create and charge 20-200/yr for premium site which is geared towards traders/heavy investors. If one is saying she/he is making a living as pro trader, generating anywhere between 100k and 1m a year utilizing your call, and not willing to pay 20-200 bucks a year then I would say this guy is full of bull shit and just enjoy talking here. We don’t want that kinda retarded filling the blog space.


    @smarsack61

    Much appreciated sharing your expertise with rest of us.

    I completely agree with you on options/AGQ. I had lengthy discussion on this subject earlier, and I would definitely prefer option to futures/AGQ. The reason of my preference is because you know what kind of risk you are taking with options as long as your are disciplined, and you can make educated bets on it. However, AGQ/ZSL look like a fonzi scheme to me, and disguises as a vehicle more accessible to naïve investors than options, while the fact is complete opposite. As an example, when I worked at a bank I was involved with a flow of providing hedge to a double leveraged fixed income etf, there was a huge hidden fee and it was passed to end buyer, and we used to joke that only suckers buy these stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Blorf-

    Regarding QE3,4,5, etc... the only QE success Bernake can point to is that the stock market is up... IMHO if the stock market starts to dip even a tiny amount, he will crank up the printing press again so that he can continue to be "successful". It doesn't cost him anything personally to flood the market with bucks, he just needs enough "academic" backing of position papers and studies so he can deflect criticism... that's being provided right now (see stories over at ZH).

    The short-term economic situation these days is shaped more by politics and personal ambition than by fundamentals. The wonderful thing about Turd (can't believe I wrote that sentence) is that he looks at the "environmental" forcers of prices... I'm trying to do the same.

    ReplyDelete
  115. pablo and joeka have it right.

    no fee will stop "trolls" if that's what so many here refer to them as. (sometimes it seems to be just differing opinions!)
    an ignore button is all that's necessary. hell, it can be used to ignore the "trolls" as well as people that seem to post every 5 minutes like this is IM or something.
    junks and moderators only cement groupthink. aren't we adult enough to handle other people you may not agree with? Is hitting the ignore button and being done with it not good enough for some reason?
    So many people here comment on the infringement of government into our freedoms yet the same ones immediately start off by asking to "control" what others write here when a simple solution is all that's needed. What a hypocrisy. Just say IGNORE!
    bottom line: what may be a troll comment to you may be informational to me. Anyone and everyone should be able to post unless TF decides he's had enough for whatever reason. Ignore button for whatever posters you wish to ignore solves all the rest.
    If TF needs money to fund the site, that is fine. Hopefully it will be as nominal a fee as is necessary to maintain it and make it worth his while as well.

    ReplyDelete
  116. @Evil Said...
    - Equities effect of a certain set of criteria implementing Gold < $1400 and Silver < $27

    I say, how about running criteria, Gold > 1764 and Silver > 65 kind of scenario on equities, S&P, DOW and treasuries ?

    Nevertheless, you are making many of us nervous here.

    Hope Turd can clear some air created by Evils' unwanted Farts.

    Evil can be of some help if he stops talking in riddle's and gives a clear direction.

    Turd is talking of charging for posting comments, I am all for it. Yes you can charge what you feel fit, but by charging nominal amount of $20, can you keep comments like Evil's away from the blog ? Evil predicted something for last week. Why that scenario did't play out ? And now he is predicting something for Mid June at a time when we most on the blog are feeling double bottom is in place and this correction is about to be over and start accumulating. And at this time Evil coming out and predicting Gold<1400 and Silver < 28. Is he stopping us from buying anything at this time ? Also, why Evil did't not contact Turd by email last time when Turd requested him to do so.

    I would wait for Turd to clear some air.

    One thing for sure, $20 is too small a amount to keep dis-information away from the blog. There should be some other way out.

    @Evil, I suggest you fully come out of your bunker and write how can you help people on this blog, no more sniper attacks by talking in riddle's.

    ReplyDelete
  117. KWN weekly metals wrap is up.

    About fees. I would pay $20. I don't think it would make a forum a better place by having a pay-to-post format.

    Best forums I've been on have a couple of good moderators.

    Posters like Evil or anyone else claiming to have access to special information are part of the reality we all deal with every day in the real world as well as the internet.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Blorf, I'm with you here.

    The next few weeks are going to be of immense importance. I had originally thought the fed may talk or delay QE3 in order to crater the market before releasing QE3 but now I'm starting to think Turd is exactly right and the fed will not delay QE3. All Ben has to do is sit tight and do nothing. The markets will panick themselves and crater leaving the door open for Ben to announce QE3 still before QE2 expires. This seems to be what is going on.


    @Nick Elway Thanks for the tip. I should have prefaced that "mostly in cash" referred to my trading account being in USD fiat atm. I still hold physical that has not moved. I'm just a little apprehensive about my trading account (which I usually hold CAD) having a rather large amount in USD but ultimately I don't think we will see a flash crash that will take down the markets and the currency altogether. I'm thinking cash is the safest place at the moment and if the market craters a bit, we should have a narrow window to BTFD. If it doesn't than I buy back at $35+ which is still fine on the way to $200 within a few years.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Turd:

    I am a lurker here but have been reading since I got into silver.

    Please please watch this, I promise it is worth it.

    Gary Vaynerchuck, ran a 50 million dollar wine business, quit it, and started Wine Library TV.

    http://www.youtube.com/derickonfire/#p/f/1/EhqZ0RU95d4

    I have watched this video so many times, it's very motivating and chock-full of information.

    Keep it free and keep providing a great service to the world, it'll pay off.

    ReplyDelete
  120. I like the numbers, and logic, in the below article

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/12_Robin_Griffiths_-_Silver_Could_Eclipse_$450,_Gold_$12,000.html

    ReplyDelete
  121. The day a paywall prevents a conflicting opinion from entering the conversation is the day this blog will cease to be relevant.

    @G - "running a scenario" is not the same as making a prediction. I, for one, am keenly aware that there are games TPTB could pull that would make AG < 28 possible. Would you rather bury your head in the sand and not even consider the possibility?

    Seriously, Turd mentions the possibility of pay-to-post and half this place turns into the nanny state. conflicting viewpoints are the new boogeyman it seems...

    ReplyDelete
  122. Suddenly we have 3 posters predicting Gold < 1400

    1. @Blorf
    2. @Evil
    3. @Alex

    @Alex seconding Blorf and saying Cash is king.

    Is this a signal to buy more Metal ?

    ReplyDelete
  123. @uptofreedom

    Yes, you can have a conflicting viewpoint. Even @Evil can have a viewpoint. But that viewpoint is coming out of access to special information he/she is enjoying. Even the lady "Winter Benton" predicted and to some extent all of us took decisions based on that viewpoint.

    @Evil also predicted something for last week. If he is serious why did't he contact Turd on secure channel?

    If @Evil has access to information that TPTB has ran certain scenarios then he could have at least pointed to what is the outcome or results of those scenarios. Or how we can benefit or protect in those eventualities.

    Coming out of bunker to just post Gold<1400 kind of scenario and again going back to bunker is proving @Evil to be another "Winter Benton" Stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  124. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Regading whether silver will go back up or down further, here is my two cents

    Fundamentally, bright side is that next month is big delivery month, and China is opening new exchange, and US debt ceiling is going to be breached, silver bull market is still intact there is strong chance that another boom in silver demand surprising quicker than one can imagine. However, negative side is that if dollar bounce continues and people rush to risk-off side then, demand for investment wouldn’t that big as we can hope. Another negative dark horse is whether EE can get physicals from SLV’ inventory and cut the physical shortage. We will see how it plays out in June.

    Technically, silver is completely on its down side for a while. I believe recent parabolic rise was more due to speculative leveraged bets by hedfunds/small investors who are mostly driven by TA based algorithm. As I pointed quoted earlier, smt said “broken parabola never recovers” along this line, and trader Dan is along the same line
    http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/05/13/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-426/

    So not much to tell you to the bag holders, but for anyone desperate for action, why do you try to squeeze the last drop of juice from staled bottle instead of waiting for fresh new bottle of juice, when QE3 is on the horizon? Let me close with few quotes from market wizard

    Michael Marcus: "One of my rales was to get out when the volatility and the momentum became absolutely insane.... I just forced myself out of the market on that kind of volatility."

    Ed Sykoda: "Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn't get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating."

    "I continued to trade even though my system was largely out of the markets due to the enormous volatility. I tried to pick tops and bottom is in what I considered grossly overbought and oversold markets. The markets just kept on going and I lost a lot. Eventually, I saw the futility of my approach and quit for a while."

    Larry Hike, "When the volatility of a market becomes so great that it adversely skews the expected return/risk ratio, we will stop trading that market. "

    ReplyDelete
  126. @ Turd (and anyone else here naturally) –

    We all know there is a lot of negativity right now on the net and throughout the media. No doubt some of it is sincere, some is well reasoned, some is hopping onto the anti-silver bandwagon, some is clueless and some is either paid or self-interest dumping talk to promote taking the white metal down.

    EA posted a link to Eric Jantzen’s itulip.com. I’m not new to the silver market and started buying at $8 and I don’t rattle easily in “corrections” (manipulations), but this guy’s post/graph in the “Catch A Falling Silver Knife” is pretty disconcerting. Has me second guessing and wondering if it’s time to get out.

    Jantzen’s graph shows silver declining into the end of 2011 at around $15 then rising in 2013 to $30. Either this guy knows what he’s talking about (calling the exact top before selling all), or he is lucky or perhaps he is a tool that was given timing by the Morgue to beat the anti-silver drum. Who the hell knows…

    For all I know, with all the evil in the world, Soros could be “sponsoring” blogs like tulip.

    Opinions? Would love to hear thoughts on this.

    www.itulip.com

    ReplyDelete
  127. Turd, I would not charge a fee to post. But I would try to add some sort of IGNORE plugin or something that would let us ignore comments by troll types. Give your readers the power to filter these people out, that's the best way to go.

    I do not know how your new site is coming along but please bear this in mind. It would be a huge help to all of us if we could just skip seeing posts by these assholes.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Here's a little something to cheer the silver bulls.

    http://dont-tread-on.me/the-3-big-charts-i-watch-for-silver/

    ReplyDelete
  129. @Larry,

    Eric Jantzen’s itulip.com posted Gold would go to 5k-6k, but silver dropping to $15.

    NOT possible. Silver and GOLD are tied at the hip.

    I putting all my money on Silver. When EE takes down Silver price (in paper trades), in physical market premiums are going sky high. Has anyone watched premiums as reported by Bill Murphy's http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

    ReplyDelete
  130. @ Alex

    I also expect a steady (5% a year?) decline in the dollar, with at least one big rebound up maybe 15% ish when the euro fails. That might be happening now, but more likely in 2 or 3 years.

    (A few years ago the CAD was at 62 cents and all the experts predicted it was headed for 50 cents, it's been a steady rise ever since.)

    Some permadoomers seem to believe the dollar will be worth 0 in a few years (months?)

    That justifies buying PMs at any price.

    This is where I disagree with most PM bugs. I don't believe in buying at any price, and I strongly believe silver and probably gold are way ahead of themselves.

    Oil might be a different story, it's hard to analyze, but if the economy slows we sure won't have $200 oil, of that I'm certain.

    Now wishing I had not opened that bottle of Malbec last night...

    ReplyDelete
  131. @Eric#1

    Thanks Eric, at least something to cheer in this all negativity filled atmosphere.

    ReplyDelete
  132. @Larry - I just read it and here's my takeaway: He crow's about how accurate his TA is/was without acknowledging the fact that it took 5 margin hikes to make his sell the right call. I'd take anything he says with a grain of salt.

    ReplyDelete
  133. @Evil

    I see you posted here last night, can you please tell us what are the results of the scenarios you ran this week?

    Can you also tell us, the equities crash you mentioned that was run for this week didn't happen, is that because your predictions are wrong or are these scenarios run for the purpose of the EE changing the outcome - in other words do you run scenarios so the EE know what to prevent?

    ReplyDelete
  134. I'm a fan of keeping the site free btw. I also don't care at all about trolls. I appreciate all viewpoints whether bullish or bearish and am capable enough of drawing my own conclusions thank you very much. Even Evil's comments which I find entirely possible but which imo are entirely dependant on the next 2 weeks. Stay nimble my friends.

    I think charging a fee may cause stagflation in the community but if Turd decides to charge a fee, I would have no issue paying it.

    I think a better alternative to combatting trolls is just allowing users to filter comments (ie. if you don't like someone's posts - put them on a block list so you don't see them while others do.)

    ReplyDelete
  135. uptofreedom - Thanks, I pretty much came to that same conclusion. Just had another thought about Jantzen and his “itulip”. Whether he’s legitimate or not, I won’t venture a guess because I’ve never heard of him before, but the name of his site is itulip. Is this a not-so-subtle reference to the famous Dutch Tulip bubble? Hmmm…

    On a lighter note and so nobody here thinks I’m going to “screw the pooch” and dump my silver, I’ll continue to believe our man Turd and guys like Robin Griffiths over some dude selling old tulip fears.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/12_Robin_Griffiths_-_Silver_Could_Eclipse_$450,_Gold_$12,000.html

    ReplyDelete
  136. @Leonard

    No point in asking @Evil anything. He just farted here and went to his bunker.

    If he has balls he would contact turd or answer your questions.

    He did't even elaborate on why his prediction for last week did not happen.

    Rather he has taken out every dollar bill out of his bank account as he was suggesting to this blog. May be he has bought Silver out of that cash.

    He is another Winter and there are at least there are two of his accomplices spreading rumors on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Turd -

    I just wanted to chime in on the $20 to post idea. I do not like that idea. The reason I love this place is because six months ago I knew two things about silver, Jack and Shit... And Jack skipped town.

    When I was first learning I asked several questions and that in turn lead me to where I am today. I wouldn't have done that if money had been involved, even twenty bucks.

    I say leave the "Feed the Turd" button up, elect a few moderators and send each a cool TF cowboy hat. If there is a place to posts the mods picture that would be cool, big hat and all.

    That will instill your mods and community with pride and if you take care of us we will do what we can to take care of the comments section for you!

    Thanks for all you do Turd.

    ReplyDelete
  138. @Larry, also that last article on iTulip was written 10 days ago.. sooo much has happened since then!

    I'm keen to know if anyone watches the Indian or middle eastern markets that trade on weekends to see if they affect Sunday night opening?

    On another forum back on April 23rd (Sat) someone from India posted that the market there had gone crazy for Silver and sure enough, spot jumped up... it obviously went down, then up, then down much more!

    Having found this site though and updates on youtube by stellaconcepts I find these to be the most reasonable and level headed views and opinions.

    I'm liking the positivity of KWN, however it just feels a little too 'permabull' for me right now.

    ReplyDelete
  139. G - I'm with you. Having gone through 2008 after buying in 2007, I held physical but got stopped out of most mining shares. Those shares that I rode down were back to even within four months.

    If I didn't believe that gold and silver were the only protection/antidote for the coming crisis I surely would've sold in December 2008.

    Not sure why the tulipmeister rattled my cage after ignoring that crap for so long. Just trying to keep an open mind to all possibilities I suppose.

    Robin Griffiths and Eric's "Don't Tread on Me" link above has me all better and back to my unwavering bull mentality.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Why buy precious metals now? Because of the fundamentals. The dollar is still dying, and it will cease to be the world's reserve currency. QE-infinity is assured, though there may be a pause before the next round.

    Because there's far more upside than downside to the metals at current prices. The secular bull is intact. I thought $40+ silver was too expensive, so I didn't buy any then. $35- silver is a decent price, though, especially considering the potential upside. If it happens to crater to the $20s or lower, I'll be mortgaging the house to BTFD. As for gold, anything below $1500 is a total bargain, IMO.

    Why buy metals now? Because they're on sale, and even if there are steeper discounts in the near future, the long term will vindicate those of us with the patience to buy and hold. Paper can hurt us, but physical metals are the ultimate in wealth preservation, particularly in today's monetary climate.

    ReplyDelete
  141. @ Turd I've re-thought my adamant YES vote for charging a one-time anti-troll fee. Partly because the few trolls can be interesting and easy to ignore and partly because people may think I am a troll (I'm not, I'm just a very, very complicated person.) Warnings and clear rules and moderators are a better solution that won't keep out the audience you say you want to attract.

    @ Eric#1 I sell covered call options (probably safest for me and the only option allowed in IRAs.) I try to wait for periods when I think the intermediate trend is flat to down, sell OTM covered calls for shorter terms. It isn't a huge money maker but it slowly lowers the cost basis of your holdings. So far in 30+ years, I've never had a position lost to a covered call. I personally think intermediate PM miners are flat to lower so I have calls sold on mine.

    FWIW YMMV IMO


    Hux

    ReplyDelete
  142. @Larry

    I have ALL OF last 2 years KWN posts in my phone. And I hear it every morning all through week during my morning 5-10 Km run. Although Eric King will fill you with hyper positivity and make you come back and fill super size Gold/Silver orders, I try to keep some moderation, rather my wife moderates my buy orders a bit.

    Anyway I would wait out for Turd's call after he analyzes last week in TA and more importantly his analysis of other news affecting and how EE is going to act.

    ReplyDelete
  143. @Larry - yeah, the tulip reference should give it away... Comparing silver now to tulips then is so off base it's laughable.

    @G - IMO, the only way to deal with trolls is to not feed them. As in ignore them. Don't rehash what they've said ad infinitum. Don't give them the satisfaction of making the conversation take a tangent. In other words, Don't feed the troll.

    That's assuming we're being trolled, of course. Evil dropping bombs and not participating in the discussion of said bombs could be considered trollish, but at least he's on topic. By exploring, and possibly even defusing, these bombs, we learn. We grow. We suss out weaknesses in our armor and better understand what we're up against.

    Preventing 10 trolls from posting would not be worth it if there was something to be learned from even one of them.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Here is another post to cheer Bulls.

    By Puru Saxena, Posted May 14, 2011
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena051411.html

    ReplyDelete
  145. Re: Palladium

    Someone asked many threads ago about Palladium. I LOVE paladium! And I have never lost any money buying and selling it. My first move into the metal was in 1996 when I bought many coins for ~$110 each and took them to Mexico City. It has a much less gun-metal look than platinum that pleases my eye. I had most of those made into jewelry. Then around 2001 or 2002 there was a huge spike in palladium prices because of Russian holding back and I sold most of my jewelry for $800.00/oz (actually in Mexico palladium is more common in jewelry use than in the USA it is called, "plata paladium.") When I sold the spot was around $1100.00 so by having it turned into jewelry I lost some of the price move. Since PALL started up I've traded in and out of it and have never taken a loss and made serious money (I invest serious money into it when I buy it though.)

    Disclosure: I am currently out of PALL and physical platinum except for several platinum and Au bracelets and pendants.

    HTH

    Huxley

    ReplyDelete
  146. @humahuaca

    Yeah, who knows where the value of the USD will be years out from now. I can only hope for an orderly decline but I'll be on my toes watching for any signs that would indicate we are heading towards hyperinflation.

    Long term silver is still very bullish in my opinion. I tend to agree with those who suggest $200 within a few years. The only thing that would change this is a drop below $27 which I just don't see as likely.

    Also, G, context for my trading account being in cash is I trade in options. A $2-3 move downwards in the price of silver would equate to an 80% loss in my options position and no loss in my physical (as I don't sell). I pick entry/exit points carefully on and am quite willing to wait a few 2 weeks to either pick up a dip or get a better feel for the direction of the markets. There is no need for me to rush. During that time I'll probably be in and out of the market on several occasions sometimes bullish, sometimes bearish.

    Trading styles need to be taken into consideration as this site brings together people of various backgrounds (daytraders, swing traders, physical stashers, stock holders of mining firms, etc). Market movements impact each style differently. When Atlee is flat, I don't take it as him being long term bearish. No, he is likely long term bullish but very short term bearish and soon to be short term bullish. :)

    On the new site it would be nice to have some identifyer on posters (ie. "options trader" "Long term investor" etc) so people know from what context the poster is coming from.

    I do think that IF the markets take a dip than gold and silver will follow just like 2008. If that happens, than I would back up the truck at that point. I'm just in no rush to be risky and back up the truck on Monday with my fiat when I can simply wait 2 weeks for more guidance...

    ReplyDelete
  147. Obama ramping up oil production

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-announces-steps-to-speed-oil-production/2011/05/14/AFXi3Q3G_video.html

    ReplyDelete
  148. @Alex,

    I got it.

    But the context you agreed with @Blorf (who putting forth Gold<1400-1300) might have irked me.

    ReplyDelete
  149. SIlver Fox -

    Netdania doesn't work for me a lot of the time for some reason, so I use forexpros.com instead and like it better. http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-futures-charts

    ReplyDelete
  150. My thoughts are silver is in downward channel until at least June or whenever QE3 is announced.

    I agree fundamentals are bullish long term, but if you look at the stock market, it is acting in the complete opposite of the fundamentals for 2 years and counting. So as a trader, I am going to lessen the importance of fundamentals for a while, and think like an algo or EE. To beat them, you have to think like them.

    A good trader is adept in making money in the up market and down market.

    Did anyone notice how Dow Jones and S&P are having more red days? Often 100 point drops. It used to be the 100+ point drops mid-day gets pared back to slight green at the end of the day. It shows PPT got new marching orders.

    PPT is allowing more red days in order to set stage for QE or raise the debt ceiling. I wouldn't be surprised if Congressional hearing on QE will be behind closed doors due to "national security".


    Behind the closed doors, Congress will be told if no further QE, red days and civil unrest are the consequence.

    Rule#1. Market will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In this case, TBTF and EE will always be solvent because laws no longer apply, so expect the corollary: market will stay irrational. Trade accordingly.

    A while back, someone mentioned rolling naked in a pile of silver ealges has a therapeutic effect. May not be a bad idea to try in down days. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  151. Eric, I'm a 200 lb Italian American, cholesterol and I are on very good terms.

    Hey I also love DTOM! Have it on my Firefox links bar like that.

    I'm thinking that this should be the Official Turd Town T, whaddaya'll think?:

    http://www.donttreadonme.com/product/MT672

    ReplyDelete
  152. First time poster, so please be somewhat kind...LOL

    1. Is anyone else at all concerned about the recent strength in the USD? It's impact on the ability of PM's to rise out of this mess? It has cleared its 20 and 50 dma's and is now attempting to push the upper BB higher.
    2. I cannot imagine anyone other than manipulators having an interest the dollar, but I find myself more confused everyday in this crazy market.
    3. The metals may hold up, but those of us in the junior miners are getting killed, and the chart for GDXJ does not look good in the short term. I hope TF talks about this in his update.
    4. After reading many others blogs, I find myself in need of a decoder ring for the following terms:
    EE
    TBTF
    Trolls (any relationship to the Charlie Sheen meltdown)?

    ReplyDelete
  153. re: gold

    From $1500 to the 200dMA at around 1400 is a 7% haircut. In math terms, depending on your current position and physical allocation, this is nothing compared to silver.

    For me it's not so much a timing thing as it is a dollar cost avg thing. Sure, it's a beautiful thing if you happen to buy the very low of the dip and keep the oz/$ ratio as low as possible, but that's investment suicide and everyone should know better.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Oh and here's one for when the weather gets cold and things get HOT...

    http://www.donttreadonme.com/product/LS215

    ReplyDelete
  155. Wow. Not meaning to pick on you today, G, but man are you pushing my buttons...

    What specifically about Alex agreeing with Blorf's proposition "irked" you? Do you not agree that if QE2 ends and isn't followed immediately by QE3 a "30% haircut" is possible? Hell, if there's no QE3 I'm expecting *more* than a 30% haircut. Does that make me a troll?

    ReplyDelete
  156. klnebert -

    If the DXY goes to 100 overnight, does the price of your coffee, bread, water or anything you buy on a daily basis drop accordingly? Of the 97 cents the Fed has stolen, do you get another 5 back instantly with a market move?

    Look at a 10 yr chart of the POSX and gold and you'll relax instantly. People make the mistake all too often to attribute near-term volatility to a shift in the underlying. It's often an illusion (in this case, an engineered one IMHO). Always back up and look at the big picture and remember the mission, forget about little bumps in the road.

    ReplyDelete
  157. @klnebert -

    1. Not really. Something my Dad used to say to my brother and I when one of us got something or other that the other didn't. He'd say "Just because something good happened to you brother, that doesn't mean anything bad has happened to you." Same deal (sort of) with the dollar, just because something bad is happening to the euro (and yen) that doesn't mean anything good is happening to the dollar. Nothing fundamentally good has happened to the dollar, it's measuring stick just got whacked.

    4. http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

    ReplyDelete
  158. @uptofreedom said...
    Wow. Not meaning to pick on you today, G, but man are you pushing my buttons...

    What makes you think that there is no QE after June ?

    If there is any economic sense left, any sane mind would tell you that there is no LIFE without QE for Osama BEN Bernak

    Listen intently to Jim Rickarss on KWN or what Jim Sinclaire termed as QE to infinity.

    ReplyDelete
  159. @Dr Durden said...
    Look at a 10 yr chart of the POSX and gold and you'll relax instantly. People make the mistake all too often to attribute near-term volatility to a shift in the underlying. It's often an illusion (in this case, an engineered one IMHO). Always back up and look at the big picture and remember the mission, forget about little bumps in the road.

    Engineered ONE !!!

    That's the good one Dr. !!!!

    Totally agree with you.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Off topic, but possibly important? After Economic Analyst mentioned it yesterday, does anyone know detailed information about this:

    "3rd Palestinian Intifada"

    http://www.facebook.com/Intifada.15May

    Or the main website (which seems to have a good deal of time spent creating it/preparing..) can be found:

    http://www.3rdintifada.com/

    Is something crazy about to start in 5 hours regarding muslims from the middle east marching into Israel? Or is this one of those DEBKA type things...

    ReplyDelete
  161. RE CHARGING FEE on Turd's site:

    I realize that TF is asking our opinions but let's all keep in mnd that this blog is Turd's baby & in the final analysis, it's HIS decision.

    Having said that, I find myself ambivalent and can see both sides for/against. However, surely $20 is a meagre price to pay to gain one's access to the wealth of information presented herein - CANNED BACON & WSU CANNED CHEESE: I didn't know such things existed prior to reading Eric, Ginger & others ON HERE.

    I have made one donation to TFM so far (I am sure it will not be the last). I missed the support & idea exchange from Atlee, Afrum, etc when this blogger was down but I did remember Turd's suggested trading position re upcoming Ag dip down to $33-34 as a possible bottom - so I held off & kept powder dry. But here is what impressed me about the benevolent nature of Turd. Since I had made a donation via paypal Turd had access to my email address - no privacy problem with that. So what did Turd do? Sent me an email with a reminder re Ag price action. I do not know how mny got a message nor can I state that only people that donated to the cause (building the new site) got that notice, or not. But imagine the level of CARING OF our TURD to do that to ensure we did not get burned by the antics of EE when the messaging site was down!!!!

    I am so IMPRESSED with this man's humanity & desire to watch out for the wellfare of others that I will gladly pay a fee to stay connected with his community.

    I do not suppose that C/P the message will break any rules so in order to help others to conclude the "humanity" of this Turd, please read what he sent.
    Quote in entirety:
    "The "Blogger" service is down. Apparently Google tried to upload an update and the entire service blew up.
    I have had no communication from them regarding when it will be back online, so here's a quick update:


    The metals rallied overnight while the dollar backed off. Gold got to 1516 and silver made it to 36.45.
    That's probably as far as they are going to go until next week. As mentioned yesterday, let's watch for a dip now.
    Hopefully, silver will head back down toward 33-34 and then stop and reverse. Gold looks like 1495, at which point I'll be a buyer.
    Hang in there today. Personally, I've kind of enjoyed the "vacation". If Blogger isn't back up by later today, I'll send you another email with a closing summary. TF"

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  162. This morning the set of 5 America the Beautiful (ATB) 5-oz coins finally arrived from APMEX. I believe all their 2010 ATB's were graded BU by PCGS.

    Supposedly, some people are sending these to PCGS for regrades, and they are coming back with grades as high as MS69DMPL FS. These seem to be getting crazy prices on Ebay!

    Apparently, PCGS does business only with dealers, and when I phoned one of the local dealers he advised to not even open the shipping box; he said this needs to be received unopened by PCGS to achieve a First Strike designation.

    Does anybody here have the scoop on ATB's from APMEX, the regrading and/or about dealing with PCGS? Yes I've been to their website but would like to see what the 'community' here has to say as well.

    Am resisting temptation to open the box for a look at these beauties and they may very well be in PCGS holders already so why not have a peek?

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  163. When I said in another post "Cash will be King" I *also* added "for a short time". The latter part makes all the diff in the world.

    I'm just not accumulating more PMs right now. In part, I already have a solid base, so I'm looking for less dollar cost averaging.

    What I'm concerned about is if equities crash, it will take commodities right along with them.

    So, I'm going sit and wait and see what happens for at the "end of QE2". Right now I'm accumulating cash. If everything goes lower (ie everyone's selling), I'll be buying. If not, that's ok too. I'll have more cash to buy some additional PM.

    Also, for the time being, cash is still how we pay for things, so it's needed day-to-day. I think it's still a ways off where your average joe thinks the cash he's holding is worthless. When that day happens, the velocity of currency will shoot the moon -- we'll be in the hyperinflation part of our story...

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  164. COMMENT ON CHARGING A FEE:

    Many of the posters in support of the fee appear to have the point of view this is a fee to view the blog as well as post here, which I do not believe is the case.

    I think Turd stated that his blog would be open for ALL to read, but there would be a one-time fee for the permission to post here.

    Somebody will correct me if I am wrong, or perhaps Turd himself will either confirm or deny this for the sake of clarification.

    -Mammoth

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  165. About the "$20 to post" for the new site...

    Turd, your "currency" is the number of people who visit and post to your site. If you put up a *money wall", you are going to kill your virality factor. It's not worth doing that to prevent the few trolls that always pop up. There are other and better ways to handle that.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Anyone thinking equities will "crash" ~ get real, the banksters love Obama (no prosecutions), this administration and the Fed are tied to the hip... there's going to be printing, at the very least to support an Obama re-election, and when QE2 ends I believe there will be stealth Fed/PD action to keep the markets from tanking too much until QE3 commences.

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  167. @G - You missed my point. I'm not saying there won't be any more QE after June. Ultimately, I think there will be. The question is whether QE3 will immediately follow QE2, or if some window will exist between the QE's. And, if some window does occur, what sort of damage might be done during that window.

    IMO, considering the criticism the Fed's been drawing lately I think Bernake's going to either a) allow a window, or b) hint at no QE3 before QE2 ends, allow a shakeout and outcry to "do something" happen, then have QE3 more or less on schedule.

    Now would be a perfect time for him to do that, on the heels of the margin hikes and just as silver seems to be recovering. Not saying he will, but what if?

    That's just one way, imo, we could see silver < 28. It's all relevant, not sure what "irks" you about exploring the possibilities...

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  168. Harvey has some interesting report on Gold, GLD and the Bank of England

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/05/another-raidgold-fallssilver-rises.html

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  169. Andrew,

    I don't disagree with you, certainly by the end of the year, but in the very near term, to create the required level of fear and doubt, I believe TPTB will let equities 'correct', 10-20%.

    With all the leverage in the system, and everyone expecting a sell-off, nervously watching their screens, some simple exogenous event would be enuff to send the herd charging to the exits.

    I think yesterdays was that Social Security and Medicare are going broke. Wow. Scary. Didn't know that, did we?

    Maybe this weekends will be the intifada thing Scottj88 mentioned above. Oooh. I swoon.

    Seems predictable to me, followed by a sharp recovery in equities.

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  170. @uptofreedom said...

    Exploring the possibilities does not irk me at all.

    But some one thinks he has insider knowledge about the games TPTB is playing and paints scenarios without taking into consideration all the relevant factors. That irks me.

    I am pointing at @Evil.

    Mathematically speaking just 7% downside in Gold is very much possibility. One would play options with appropriate stops. But, without saying has anything fundamentally changed ? has US economy has started putting up 200K jobs a month ? Is US fiscally responsible ?

    If US is taking in 50 and spending 100, how does it affect debt situation? Is 0% interest benefit middle class and savers ?

    Try to answer these questions yourself.

    Whatever volatility you are seeing is (as Dr Durden says) is Engineered one in PM's. Play with stops taking into account downside possibility. But that should not stop anyone from accumulating physical stuff at these lower prices of $35 and $1500.

    Also, the premiums in place you would not be able to get real physical stuff at these prices. Go take a look at availability.

    $28 silver would be there on one Sunday night, Monday morning at 2 AM EST in Asian trading. What are you going to do with it? Can you take advantage of it ? No... it is just to paint the chart and do the technical damage.

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  171. Hi I am a newbie. Have a question to those seasoned metal investors: To accumulate physical metal, what is the best to have? 0.9 american eagle coin, .999 pure round head or bullion? how about gold? Thanks.

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  172. QE to Infinity. I mean what, Ben Shalom lie??/ You some kinda 'merican al-kydie or sumpumm?


    @ Mammoth, suggest you forget the grading aspect of the 5 oz ATB's. Either get ungraded or low-end MS. I recently bought an MS62 on ebay and got it for only about $10 over spot p/oz.

    I got the Grand Canyon piece b/c it happens to be my favorite place on earth. I love the thing, it IS beautiful. I would've paid even more to own one but very glad I didn't have to :-)

    To me, there's no point in paying the ridiculously high premiums for MS68-70 ATB's. In reality, chances are high you'd never see it back on resale. To me the fact that it's 5 oz of Ag, and ALSO happens to be a limited issue US Mint coin, is all the real value you need to pay a premium for.

    Please save your money and put the diff toward more ounces. Just keep stackin', especially as prices head lower.

    Good luck to you

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  173. Turd
    I don't have a problem with paying but I'd like to see the comments section open to all. You have the right to remove any comment you choose. Since I come here to get your view, I won't complain if you exercise your rights of ownership.
    But I enjoy the different viewpoints of the commenters and I wouldn't do anything to dampen the responsiveness and energy of the participants. This is truly a free-flowing forum of ideas from the minds of intelligent and thinking people, encouraged and guided by your informed creative intellect.
    I wouldn't do anything to restrain the energy on this blog.
    But I'd be happy to pay for other services, whatever may be offered.
    Turd I have to thank you for all the education I've gained. Thank you for sharing.

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  174. @G,

    I see your of the belief QE to infinity. Were all on the same page here it's just a question of timing the announcement or the QE. If the markets have already started to worry about the end of QE2, why haven't we seen the fed step in and say "Nothing to see here, QE3 to infinity"?

    I think you missed my point.

    I'm not saying we wont see QE3. In fact as I originally mentioned I don't expect there to be any delay in QE2 to QE3. What I said was that in the absense of any statement that QE3 will continue, the markets will worry themselves and perhaps that unrest is already starting to be seen. This could potentially result in the red candles that will allow the fed to sell QE3 to the public in time for QE3 to continue without any delay from QE2 to QE3.

    Within the context of QE2 ending without QE3 being announced, why isn't it possible we can see a 6.5% decline (1400 Au)? Martin Armstong has postulated support at $1227 would be retested which would set us up for the next run. $1227 would be an 18% haircut but within the context of a broader market sell-off, I don't see why even that would not be entirely possible.

    Now whether a crash a-la-2008 is probable, I highly doubt that. I fully believe QE3 will be announced at such a time that the fed is content that commodity prices are no longer stoking fear of inflation and that the people believe that without QE3, the markets will drop. This would be well before any substantial crash but could very well follow a small haircut.

    In either case, the fundamentals will not have changed and any decline would be very short lived. So my physical will remain in my pocket. My fiat will remain ready to buy any gift, and if we hear about QE3 early, I'm ready to btfd.

    Do I care if my physical goes down 7% on the way to $200? Not a chance.

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  175. I think it is nonsense to believe that trolls would be affected by a small fee to post.

    I would suggest a premium section for traders and everything else free. This has multiple advances for both traders and those of us who are buy-and-hold physical.

    ReplyDelete
  176. RE: Charging $20 for comments

    Would this blog have gone viral if you had to pay $20 to post comments on Day 1?

    ReplyDelete
  177. Turd, what about this analysis?

    http://www.24hgold.com/english/contributor.aspx?rss=true&article=3486984788G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Toby+Connor

    I'm keen on riding silver up, but I'm 50/50 divided between up and down right now. So I will watch it from the sideline a bit more.

    Anyway, thanks for sharing your knowledge, great site, and sometimes very useful comments too. Sorry for posting this comment twice, was in an older thread.

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  178. I've been reading this blog and comments for the last few weeks and just wanted to take a min to compliment Turd and this great community for being such an awesome site. This is now my first favorite I click too when I have time to surf. Thanks everyone for your level headed thinking and knowledge.
    Job well done

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  179. Mammoth if you do choose to have them graded, PCGS and NGC are the industry standard. Others are just as good but these 2, anyone will know.

    Do consider NGC too, maybe they'll charge you less.

    Incredibly, you WILL find buyers for MS68-70 ATB's on ebay. And if you're the seller, I guess the awful judgement of the buyer of one of 'em is a good thing!

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  180. @ewc58, Plz re-read my ATB post. I will shamelessly admit that I want to flip these, and already have them in-hand (albeit inside an unopened package.)

    The idea would be to have these 5-oz coins re-graded with the assumption they would then claim a much higher price when I sell.

    And yes - the proceeds would go towards adding to my stacks of Physical...
    -Mammoth

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  181. Looks like the big commercials are almost locked and loaded...
    Definitely worth the read, especially the last two paragraphs.

    http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/commodities-and-a-stalling-economy.html

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  182. @paulindoon
    I couldn't agree more! I did not expect Turd's email when Blogger went down and the fact I received one really was truly surprising!

    Turd, you certainly went above and beyond anyone's expectations. It was certainly appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  183. God. I do not have the patience to read through Harvey's numbers blog. He needs a 2 word sentence at the end interpreting the numbers.


    As for charging $20 to post. IMO, the best way to handle trolls is to moderate the foroum. I ran a 1K person active forum and you simply need some fast and steady rules.

    I really like Turd's original intent to keep the information on the topic which is the end of this economic system. Jerks and *sshats should be banned and kept off the board. By allowing people to pay it often ends up protecting epic trolls that skirt the rules and make the forum misreble.

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  184. @Alex,

    I would not be bit affected if someone postulates Gold going to ZERO. I can also forcefully make a point that Gold would retest $1000/Oz. But problem is if one cannot put forth factors leading to these prices.

    I believe that actually there cannot be any window between QE2 end and QE3 Start. The gap between these two QE's would be lies put to media consumption by FED and EE. And that is why so many in FED are conduction press conferences off late and coming on TV.

    I predict that the smart money is not going to be fooled by these antics by FED. Money would find its way to commodities before even FED make official announcement of QE3.

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  185. @ewc58, was writing the above post same time you put yours up. Crazy prices, crazy buyers on Ebay, see for yourself:

    http://tinyurl.com/429fgdb

    Would like to know the scoop on submitting these coins for grading - again - anybody done this with their APMEX ATB's?

    -Mammoth

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  186. @turd
    Hey, I thought the new site was going to be free, at least that is what I remember you having said early on. Have you changed your mind now? One way of doing so and keeping control is that you spell out what the rules are and then reserve the right to withdraw access privileges if somebody messes up. Besides, I doubt that charging a fee at the door will stop trolls from coming in. One way or another, undesirables will get in, and you'll need a way of dealing with this ... or you just let everybody blab as they please (which happens on many sites as long as nobody uses racist language, incites violence, etc.). And once they are in (and they have paid money to get in), you'll have the better business bureau and other headaches to deal with if you capriciously withdraw membership (i.e. sack their payment fee). Anyway, I would prefer you continue to be a man of your word and don't use this as an opportunity to make a lousy buck or two. Your original vision appeals to me better. It had more of a humanitarian appeal to it, one that distinguished itself from all other sites that require some kind of fee to get advice. Keep the faith Turd!

    ReplyDelete
  187. The interest rate on two-year Greek notes has climbed to 24.99%,

    http://sfgate.ldc.bloomberg.wallst.com/SFChronicle/Story?docId=1376-LL6S400UQVI901-264RESSMNGINN4MLANEC9S3KCQ

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  188. @Shill
    The interest rate on two-year Greek notes has climbed to 24.99%

    Thanks for heads up Shill !!

    Gold going to ZERO guys..... Cash is KING !!!

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  189. @Mammoth:

    Wow. I'm a believer bro :-)

    There's no shame in charging what the market will bear.

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  190. @G
    I'm in total agreement with you on that the transition will be seamless without much fanfare.
    Jim Rickards explains this much more eloquently here.

    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/14_Jim_Rickards.html

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  191. padme said,
    Have a question to those seasoned metal investors: To accumulate physical metal, what is the best to have? 0.9 american eagle coin, .999 pure round head or bullion? how about gold? Thanks.

    ---------

    All of the above. I prefer whatever someone would prefer when fiat currency is no longer accepted. A mercury dime should get you a loaf of bread, or a gallon of gasoline. Gold can pay your taxes or make the bigger purchases.

    ReplyDelete
  192. I rememember when COMEX threw almots 1 Billion dollars in one minute at gold to knock it below 1444, and it bounced at 1445 and has not been beneath yet.

    I understand all the arguments for an 08 style selloff crashing gold, silver, commodities, and equities... but do people think that if another 08 happened there would be anything left on the other side of our financial system?

    When 2008 occured, we did not have any of these insane monetary policies (QEI/QEII) and a dollar as weak as it is in the international world. We would crash the already weak global markets and sure it would give an excuse to initiate QEIII, but it would also give an excuse for massive inflation after a deflationary wipeout of people's wealth (assuming the stock market is a measure of this which only is true in Bernanke's Public Relations world). How the FED would try to manage "controversial" monetary policy after everything goes to shit would be interesting.

    We have to look at this from the eyes of the FED (and banking cabal), as market fundametnals are not what is driving this market.

    ReplyDelete
  193. Like the idea of Having an I.D. next to our name to help folks know if we are a trader or stacker or both.
    -The idea of "Ask The Turd" Button for a fee was pretty good too.

    Mammoth said-
    "I will shamelessly admit that I want to flip these, and already have them in-hand."

    Still do not understand why it is such a no no (on here)to flip phys...? Why, because you think SHTF in mid flip? what are the odds of that timming? I'll say, LOW.
    ... will go with the saying,
    "No one ever went broke taking profits"

    ok, so now i'll open another door for someone to tell me i'm wrong...;)
    still getting over $10 per ounce silver profit on ebay... me LIKE. Fast, easy, reliable.
    Then reinvest in MORE ounces.
    For a TOTAL newbie, i feel fortunate to have made it through a 30+% corrction in silver and still be above water. Combination of timing, luck and knowing when to say when.
    Only thing i can kick myself for is not letting go of more of my generics when they were going for well over $50 per oz! That would have been good gain selling 1/3 of holdings or so... but I didn't relise the pullback would be so fast as to allow me to buy back in w/ such a quick turnaround!
    Think I'm still dizzy from the up/down action!

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  194. @Vickaty @Alex

    Here is a proof that QE2-QE3..... is going to be seamless.

    Goldman Fires The Second Shot Across The QE3 Bow: "Successful Fiscal Consolidation Needs Monetary Policy Help"

    "Monetary Policy HELP" READ QE3 guys........


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/alan-blinder-fires-first-shot-across-qe3-bow-says-we-need-more-stimulus-boost-employment

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-fires-second-shot-across-qe3-bow-successful-fiscal-consolidation-needs-monetary-poli

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  195. @Scottj88 said...
    I understand all the arguments for an 08 style selloff crashing gold, silver, commodities, and equities... but do people think that if another 08 happened there would be anything left on the other side of our financial system?

    Very good point SCott... I could not put this in words... So you are not alone in thinking if 2008 style equity crash.... there is going to be Golden and Silver lining after all......

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  196. @Bro.D
    IMO, number of ounces is a matter of importance.
    The more ounces your fiat can buy the better. Not to say that you couldn't add a few Eagles and commemoratives along the way but if you are just starting out shoot for quantity. Suggestions are Pan American, Silvertowne, NWT Mint, First Majestic etc...1, 5 or 10 OZ denominations. I personally like the 1's, easy to dispose of should silver skyrocket higher.

    ReplyDelete