Monday, May 16, 2011

The Moment of Truth Cometh

We are rapidly approaching The Moment of Truth, at least for this current correction. Either it has ended and the PMs will begin the UPward consolidation that I'm expecting or things will break down and silver will head lower to test last week's lows and beyond. Gold would then roll back toward 1465-80.

Here is the gold chart I gave you yesterday:
And here is a 15-minute chart with roughly the same trendlines drawn upon it:
The two ends of the pennant look like they will meet in about 12 hours so gold will break out, either higher or lower, before then.

Now let's do the same with silver. Here's the longer-term chart from yesterday:
And here is the latest 15-minute chart, again with the same trendlines drawn.
Like gold, the downtrend line is going to intersect the baseline in about 12 hours so resolution is coming.

I, of course, have no idea how this may play out. The fundos still have not changed so I expect natural demand to kick in and stabilize/increase price. However, the CME/Comex/Cartel/Govt complex has already shown that it is willing to go to any lengths to suppress and cap price at these levels so we'll see. Maybe more silver margin hikes are coming. WTFK.

Hang in there. This should be very interesting to watch. TF

WTFK is another Turd acronym. Any guesses as to what it stands for? Mr. Hyde knows, that's for sure.

The short term fate of the PMs hasn't been decided yet but its getting awfully close.
Here are two updated hourly silver and a 2-hour gold.
Overnight breaks of 1485 and 33 would be very bad.
On the bright side, IF, for any reason, the metals can reverse and rally here, breaking UP through 35 and 1510, we can begin to get excited about their short-term prospects.
Again, we should know very soon. More later. TF


  1. :O more good technical analysis.

  2. From

    IMF to Sell Gold to Raise Bail For Strauss-Kahn

    Ironic, eh?

  3. Stands for Who The F**k Knows?!

  4. yes, ievi is correct.

    Here's another one: BTSOOM

    Any guesses?

  5. Unique silver bar surfaces, sells for $12,210

  6. So are the mining stocks voting for an upside break out or just bouncing off oversold?

  7. Buy the shit out of Metals? :)

  8. wow u guys are good at guessing what these acronyms are!!!

  9. that's a tough one
    how about
    BTSOOM = bought too soon..out of money

  10. Is there any reason why purchasing fractional Silver rounds (look at APMEX's new offering) would be more advantageous than just accumulating old 90% Silver coins?

    After all - after it a few years, it seems the former would just be 'another bullion round.'

  11. Danny is correct but ievi has a good one, too.

  12. Mammoth

    None that I see. I'd stick with the 90% coin.

  13. I bot a little at 34.25

    Also, nice bounce on EXK at 8.53 support.

  14. Amateur here, so just my simple observations:

    Gold is trending down in the short term.
    Silver " .
    POSX " .

    IMF head busted on what can only be viewed as a set up.

    MENA up in flames.

    Israel on fire, too.

    Greece ready to default.

    McDonalds in Europe is transitioning to terminals, WHICH WILL NOT TAKE CASH.

    So . . .

    Simple logic:

    If sheeple eat fast food, and sheeple can only get it with plastic, then either fast food ceases or cash ceases.

    Is fast food going to cease? Not a chance.

    So, cash ceases. Then what?

    There is no need for cash at all. The only thing one needs is a govt-issued ID card to transact. The govt will recharge the cards monthly. No problem.

    No need for a gold-backed currency. Just swipe your card, and voila.

    I have been saying this since I found this site. TPTB are slowly transitioning to a paperless marketplace. Only those who have govt-issued smart cards can buy and sell goods. It's coming to America, for sure, and soon.

    Man o man, is it getting hairy out there, or what?

    I just gathered up a load of survival stuff, and basically am ready to weather the coming difficulties.

    Gold will trend up soon enough. Silver, too.

    Ferfal of Argentina seems to be the most believable right now, not Timmy or the Bernank.

  15. mammoth

    With exception of a few of each type that I really like, in the long run I'd probably dump all my bullion and keep all my 90%.

  16. Buy The Sell Off Of Metals? :)

  17. Cali Lawyer

    Like some folks say here sometimes, "shit's gettin' real"

  18. Fukushima Radiation Levels--->ALL OVER NORTH AMERICA!
    Scary DOOM

  19. BTSOOM:

    Beginning to Smell of Old Manure?

    Tried a scatological reference there . . .

    A guy can try can't he?

  20. Did someone post this already? Sorry if this is a duplicate.

  21. Here's your laugh for the day. For those not familiar with The Onion, it is completely fictional satire, but is always well written and tends to cut uncomfortably close to the bone.,19691/

  22. The downward price spikes in gold, silver and oil sure are noticeable here...someone is pushing down hard or big sellers out there.

  23. Thanks, Turd. I went early this morning,
    just got out after reading your commentary, made few quick buk. Thanks for your timely comment.

  24. California Lawyer, I just don't the get the significance of "cash cards" and why it's so foreboding. Can you help me understand?

    We've had paperless money transactions for decades - they're called credit cards, debit cards, automatic transfers, online bill pay, PayPal, eChecks, etc. What's the big deal with a government issued cash card?

  25. DSK denied bail, due to being flight risk. He is being held until next hearing of May 20.

    No disrespect to the victim, but . . .

    This alleged crime is a garden-variety sexual assault. Massive white collar criminals ALWAYS get bail; they just surrender their passport.

    Why is DSK being held in jail? For four days?

    I will not be shocked at all to learn that DSK suddenly, mysteriously, fell ill in jail, and died.


    Story on zerohedge, here:

    This has to have been orchestrated. Damn scary shit.

    Next in command at IMF is an American, formerly of the Morgue?

    No one would believe this if it was not playing out in real time. Seriously, there is something massive afoot. Be careful.

    Look for massive Greek bail out very shortly.

  26. @Cal Lawyer,
    It will go even deeper than you pointed out. Once the information is in the ‘System’ there is no telling who will have it.

    Your health insurer will raise your premium because you eat fast-food 4 times a week.

    Your homeowners insurance will increase because there are no records of you purchasing any home-security devices. Oh – and who else out there will find out your house doesn’t have a burglar alarm?

    Since you have a vegetable garden & fruit trees, you do not buy fresh produce at the grocery store. The DSHS pays you a visit because you are not providing your children with adequate nutrition.

    Your way to fight the ‘System?’ All transactions in CASH.


  27. silverleaf,

    It's called PRIVACY...if you were older, you'd know what it was. No cash means EVERYONE knows what you buy.


    Don't forget to let us know when you think it's safe to get back in the water.


  28. Guess y'all have already read this too over on Zerohedge...

  29. Blythe warned yesterday that we were in for a surprise. There ya go..SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE in the words of Gomer Pyle

  30. Silverleaf said:

    "California Lawyer, I just don't the get the significance of "cash cards" and why it's so foreboding. Can you help me understand?

    We've had paperless money transactions for decades - they're called credit cards, debit cards, automatic transfers, online bill pay, PayPal, eChecks, etc. What's the big deal with a government issued cash card?"


    Here is my humble take.

    Regular folks are being conditioned to use plastic card as normal for all transactions. Remember back when there were no credit cards at all? I do, and I was just a kid.

    Remember when people used to cash their paychecks at the grocery store? I do.

    Remember when ATM's first came out in late 80's? I do.

    Remember when automatic payroll deposits first came out?

    What is the effect of all of this?

    People now do not rely on cash, but instead rely on a card. The card has become the norm, not cash.

    Once this behavior has become engrained, like it has now, then it is but a simple transition to eliminate all cash transactions at all.

    It empowers the Feds to eliminate cash. It removes freedom from the people. Govt now has total control, unless someone wants to risk jail for blackmarket activities.

    Freedom will vanish.

    Simple Fed law bans all cash, and requires govt-issued ID card to conduct lawful transaction. Govt makes it a crime to transact without official govt-issued card.

    Now, govt can track and tax ALL transactions. This is a simple, yet powerful new revenue stream for feds. This is a simple, yet powerful new means to confiscate whatever Fed govt wants confiscated (think guns, ammo, PM's).

    This is also a new method of control. The Fed's can load up their favored classes with more purchasing power. The govt can also take away from disfavored classes at a moment's notice.

    There will be no more individual freedom once the govt mandates a transaction card.

    I hope I have made it clear.

  31. @California Lawyer
    When has a wealthy foreign national accused of a crime of violence, who was arrested on an airplane attempting to flee the country, ever been granted bail??? This was a no brainer bail denial.

  32. Donald Trump drops plans to run for White House

  33. SilverLeaf...

    Almost all of those are by CHOICE right now... he's talking about no choice and ALL transactions going through a govt issued card.

    It's all slippery slope stuff... it never happens all at once, it's just the "Borg Collective" slowly but surely absorbing everything.

    Look at this one... this is not good for anyone either:

  34. WTFK, the Shadow knows......

  35. How many times do we need to see 34 & change hold before we consider it firm support? Seems like five times in two days now. No, implication here - I don't know. That definitely looked like a raid and bounced off 34 pretty sharply. Still watching, though...

  36. We don't have a break to the downside yet, but it sure feels like it wants to go that direction.


  37. Uh oh. Like Turd said, moment of truth...

    Should I have held on to that SLV put I had?

  38. Assad tried pro-Palestinian Golan stunt to foil Egypt's Hamas takeover

    May 16, 2011

    Syrian President Bashar Assad had more than one objective in bussing thousands of demonstrators to Israel's Golan border Nakba Day, Sun. May 15. Showing how easily he and his Hizballah partner could capture a village on the Israeli side of the enclave was only one. The other was to put a spoke in Egypt's wheel for transferring Hamas' command centers from Damascus to the Gaza Strip as part of its moves for taking the Gaza Strip and its Hamas rulers under Cairo's wing against Israel.
    In the light of this contest, the case for renewing peace talks with the Palestinians, argued interminably between Israel's government and opposition leaders (despite the Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas's two-year refusal) has lost its relevance. The rejectionist Syria, Hizballah and Hamas are now calling the Palestinian shots, a fact which is not brought to the attention of the Israeli public.
    Hizballah helped Syria organize the mass infiltration of Palestinians and Syrians into the Golan while using the same civilian Palestinian mob weapon to breach the Lebanese-Israeli frontier from Maroun a-Ras...

  39. Too many bottom pickers around, so I say lower from here...

  40. CA Lawyer

    you may be correct on all of this. only time will tell. but you make sense.

    i did a lot of researching this weekend on gold and silver. im not an investor but rather someone just trying to protect my family during the coming crisis. it is coming, there is no doubt about that. but who really knows how it is going to play out.

    im starting to get the feeling that silver might be the wrong play or maybe just not the best play. im worried about silver and its industrial uses. i mean think about all the things that silver is used in. could you imagine silver at lets say $100? the price of computers would shoot through the roof along with many other things. it is really in the best interest of governments to keep the value of silver down. otherwise the recession would get much worse.

    im really starting to feel that the right play is investing in physical gold. im hoping for silver to make another rise up, if it does im selling and trading in for gold. i might keep a little, but im feeling that gold is the right play.

    someone please set me straight though. cause im really a laymen when it comes to this stuff. which either makes me ignorant or gives me a leg up. not sure which one it is though.

  41. Tomorrow COT cutoff... is that going to be Happy tuesday ??????

  42. WTFK? C'mon, Turd! Don't be so modest! We ALL know it means:

    What Turd Ferguson Knows


  43. Blatant EE attack just now...let's hope $34 silver and $1494 gold hold...FU BM!

  44. Love "Bought too soon, out of money." Classic.

    The only trade that's made me any money today was a short on TRE at 7.12. If you follow TRE, you know how it has, of late, been prone to these great pops that disappear as fast as they come. Knowing that, I shorted TRE and covered at 6.93. Maybe too early, but in this market you take a profit. I've also added to my NGD holdings this morning. But that's not doing much.

    How about EXK? Really being clobbered. I'd bite, but silver miners are off limits at present. Until we confirm the floor I am out of silver except quick trades in and out of zsl.

    GDX is holding up very well with gold now red. Just might be time to short!


  45. Brain
    Do some more research on the amount of silver used in most products.
    I can't qoute specifics, but my memory tells me that silver at $100 would not make a massive difference to most industrial users.

  46. Brian-
    Us sheeple knows nuttin'. That's the bottome line.

  47. I don't know how much more I can take these silver swings... why did I get into this paper silver BS in the first place when this thing is so rigged!!!

    Finger's burning to cut my losses...

  48. Go read confessions of an economic hit man it puts things in perspective

  49. Just BTFD a few minutes ago in silver. Chart is setting up almost the same as it was between 5 - 6 am(EST) today... Looks good for a quick pop. Lets see if it plays out the same as earlier. Tight stop under 34 if support fails.

  50. Short Silver/long Gold ok I get it now.


  51. Question for the Turdites.
    Is now a good time to short coffee?
    Looks like it is turning down.

  52. Shill: that is a common hedge fund play right now

  53. It sure looks intent on going for the $33's today.

  54. Latest blog post on KWN is a good one. (Sorry the link is so long):

    Here's the last few paragraphs:

    "The US side on the paper market at the Comex it appears that all of the specs are washed out, and the last time we had open interest at these levels was when silver was $28 or so on its way to $50. The smart money as I said earlier appears to be dealing with this setback in prices by buying huge amounts of physical metal, continually accumulating it at this point.

    Any time we get into silver into the $33’s we get very, very big, high volume buying. This buying we are seeing out of Asia is thought to be continued diversification out of dollars, so the physical gold and silver which is being taken out of the market in that case is not expected to return.

    This physical buying is part of an increase in hard asset reserves for China and other Asian countries who are underweight precious metals and it is expected to continue for quite some time, most likely for many years. Right now, each time we see gold under $1,500 the demand out of Asia is massive, they are huge physical buyers.

    Some would say the paper market is diverging from the physical market and that is probably accurate at this time. Also remember that open interest may be indicating a rally in the very near future even if we have a bit more weakness.”

  55. @ youks

    I'm in the same boat :( I bought SLV on margin, and I'm drowning, I've already lost $15k+ and I have $5k left.

    If silver drops any more, I may just lose everything. I was stupid and should have never played on margin, silver was my first investment, and it may ruin me.

    I hope it reverses its trend, or I'm in big doo-doo.

  56. @Brian

    The amount of silver used in an electronic device range in value (at recent prices) from $0.32 to $0.36 per device. So silver at $100 would likely add $0.96 to $1.08 to the price of a device.

    Here's a video from 2 weeks ago about this:


  57. timebrk when u play with Ponzi u get burned.

  58. @timebrk

    If you had just bought some bullion or even SLV without margin you would have been fine. Margin is what has you in danger of losing your account.

    It is a good practice to avoid it like the plague.

  59. Revett is on a firesale. Just keeps dropping. Unbelievable to watch.

  60. I see the thread has picked up the usual "I bought silver on margin and now I'm broke" trolls....hehehehe.....keep your eyes focused on the miners they are getting close to their bottoms. GPL EXK EGO GFI SSRI.....SLW will be over 60 before December....enjoy

  61. @ Scott

    Ya it's below the 200DMA!

  62. Here comes the break, I think... hanging by a thread.

  63. Scottj88,yes,suprising action on no news apparently.Cant imagine it falling more,looks to be at support now.

  64. Scott,

    Revett sure is getting slaughtered. What is the reason? If there is one . . .

  65. First time poster here, so go easy on me.

    Question for the group. If China has a majority of the rare earth metals in the ground, I'm assuming that silver is part of that list. If they are now importing more than they are exporting, what are the chances that we don't know how much they're actually mining, and that they're building up a huge reserve? If the EE's hand is forced and it comes out that they don't have as much silver as they claim and prices spike, would the Chinese then be positioned to effectively take their place as head manipulator by dropping the price by dumping large quantities of previously unknown silver on the market? Seems like they’d stand to make an absolute killing by shorting prior to the dump.


  66. Scott - Any idea what's bringing the price of Revett down?

  67. went through $34. Lucky I'm out. Thanks to Turd again.

  68. Turd, you say the fundies have not changed but is that really so? There's plenty of credible stuff out there that points to the slosh effects of QE 2 across many asset classes perhaps now subsiding. I would say none of us know how that stacks up against TPTB manipulation in favor of fiat. We should, however, be able to see the effect in the other direction should QE 3 become a reality, which, of course, is rather commonly expected....

  69. Now we find out if 32 will hold.

  70. ///// NUKE EXPLOSION //////

    Will be loading up @ $28...

  71. Found this over on Yahoo message boards for Revett. Can't find anything else yet.

    Revett President and Chief Executive Officer John Shanahan said, "Because of our non-cash charges, our results this quarter are not indicative of what we expect to see going forward. I'm looking for improvement in that area as we move beyond this quarter and take advantage of full production in the newly developed, higher-grade C Bed area. Our goal is also to improve our metallurgical recoveries in order to realize the most return possible from this higher-grade area."

  72. I think we have 2 J's here.

    Note to TF... New website should enforce unique user names.


  74. Phantom - thank you, wasnt really sure about how much silver was in a computer. i guess it really isnt that much.

    wondering if anyone would be willing to read up on some stuff and let us all know what you think. its about gold and silver written from the "possible" perspective of a central banker. its extremely interesting and very insightful. here is a link to it and another link to someone that organized the postings and continues to post on them. im sure some of you already go to one of the sites.

  75. Annd it's gone.

    Looks like that bottom isn't any better than the one in a Tepco cooling pool.

  76. The course of silver is a bummer right now, if you're in it, but it's really leverage that is killing. I recommend buying physical or buying at an allocated bullion bank. No leverage, no margin, plain one-on-one wins or loses.

    At a bullion bank you can trade on a daily basis while holding allocated physical in case the whole system implodes like it will someday.

    Calling quits and taking loses is also part of investing. Investing is one big paradox. It's the most difficult and the easiest way to earn money. It sure is the easiest way to loose money.

  77. flirting with 33! what was your 'suprise' Blythe? Nothing out of the ordinary yet.

  78. Hi Turd, long time reader. Thanks for all the awesome info.

    What do you guys think of SLV? I'd like to get in on some of the action seeing as we are close to a bottom......just want to make some short term paper profits. Is SLV a safe bet?

    Thanks for your help.

  79. What did turd call it, a "Wilson"? dead cat bounce... will it have legs with the futures market closed?

  80. Cramer just now:

    "Gold flat, silver down.... That's how it could keep playing out... "

  81. Maybe be Revett being promoted to the AMEX was not a good thinig... easier to pressure? I am speechless.

  82. Investment banks should hire me, then just do the opposite of what i do. Shit, they'd be buying every dip and selling every top like a boss.

    Hiring? Give me a call at 555-dofus

  83. wasnt cramer pimping out silver right before the dump?

    maybe we have found a bottom

  84. Back in at $33.75 with some July 36 calls.

  85. I suspect silver miners will go lower than anyone imagines as hedge funds short and investors vomit out their positions... though I suspect many of them are still making very good profits on $30 silver.

    Silver American Eagles in possession seem fundamentally unaltered by the market events... still very pretty and shiny.


    Rumor has it that Bill Clinton has volunteered to be a character witness for the defense of Strauss-Kahn’s. Tick Tick Tick.

    ( Little levity to break the tension. ) I know its a ruff day for sure...I am all in short so I am just riding this out to be truthful.

  87. Video that correctly predicted the earthquake on Mar.11/11 This is serious IMO.

    The upload date shows Feb.13/11. If she is correct Sept will be the month when SHTF

    Please let me know if I'm missing something. This is earliest video I can find. There was an updated one early march by her trying to warn everyone near fault lines. Alex Jones was informed about the video but dismissed it. He said something like that in the segment he did a couple days after the earthquake. Link

    She has many videos on it on her channel.

  88. I got an email from (as a customer) apologizing for their long shipping times and they cannot keep up with the demand and supplies are running thin.

    ..just wanted to throw that in.

  89. @Scott - Revett's timing to AMEX couldnt have come at a worse time (well maybe a week earlier could have been even worse). Right now it doesnt seem that anyone wants to touch a quality miner with a long pole particularly one that has any silver focus. Even at these prices im not quite ready to jump in. This PM/oil crash came so quick that it seems that there is possible more pain that could develop particularly if the economy starts to slow and we see the DOW start to look quite ugly as well.

    all i can do at this point is hedge against falling prices, but even thats becoming a very difficult battle to time with 1-2$ intraday swings happening, even on sunday nights (still).

  90. Things still going according to plan, not sure I can understand the pessimism here but it makes me feel even better about entering back in soon. We're re-testing the 33-34 range, and if we demonstrate a rise back through 34, I'm going to begin nibbling back in as the Correction/CME-induced beatdown may officially be concluded and the bottom is established.

  91. 50 ounces of NTR bars heavier today... Dee dee dee...

  92. @Turd and all:
    I would like to share the insights of a German technical analyst who has been around for some twenty years. Dr. Schulz has a flawless track record, and – although he may not have Turd’s philanthropist compassion – he really stands out with his unbiased analyses. Unfortunately (for all those who are still invested, including me and my better half) his verdict on gold appears to confirm the 33/34 USD threshhold Turd has pointed out for silver. Below there the trip could easily lead us to USD 1,200 and the low twenties in silver. Have a look (the charts should speak for themselves), and also check out his USD chart. We might be right long term (also morally), but f***** short term. What do you think?

  93. Word plays like the author Ben Dover writing an article about the alleged rape of the hotel maid by the IMF Head can't be real. I'll be looking for Jack Meoff to be opining on the incident next.

  94. @Brian

    Just adding my .02

    Because there is such a small amount of silver in most products, and because its unique and superior physical attributes make it hard to substitute something else, or at least not very desirable, it is estimated that industrial users will pay whatever they have to to obtain it. That also implies that, if there is a perceived shortage, industrial users will attempt to stockpile silver and will also bid up the futures price. Depending on what you read, industrial (including jewelry?) accounts for about 50% of current demand for physical, although investor demand has been rising rapidly so that number may have changed recently.

    However, it should be noted that, despite this logic, silver tanked in 2008 when the equities markets did. Fundamentals versus market psych. Market psych wins every time.

  95. @mike, is he saying that there's a good possibility gold and silver will continue to tank for the near future?

  96. "There will be no more individual freedom once the govt mandates a transaction card."

    Never going to happen. There are tens of millions of Religious Fundamentalists who are VERY sensitized to the eventuality of the Mark Of The Beast -- that without this marker you will not be able to transact any business at all, according to Biblical teachings.

    The minute any Liberal administration announced that the government required an issued ID (a marker, in effect) to transact all business, these people would be skinning their congresspeople alive in their offices.

  97. Hi Turd, long time reader. Really appreciate the time you put into your blog. I read your writings each day.

    But as for you acronym - who the fuck knows what half of them mean :D

    Thanks, keep up the good work. And lets hope the break is in the right direction.

  98. Hello, boys

    All done now. Trinster make it all better. Time to make some money on the way *up* for a few weeks, I think.

    But be nice to me in future, or we'll soon be back down here again. Wasn't a nice experience, was it?

    Big hug,

    Trinity Blue

  99. these people would be skinning their congresspeople alive in their offices.


    Sounds appealing...I hope tickets are sold.

  100. The IMF character has diplomatic immunity.

    Wow, why doesn't his lawyer know this?

    This states: "The executive head of each specialised agency... shall be accorded... the privileges and immunities, exemptions and facilities accorded to diplomatic envoys, in accordance with international law."

  101. Oh, and I wanted to say thanks, Turd, for your technical analysis. It's way better than mine.

  102. This guy takes her idea and explains the dates using Nasa imagery.

    This is the Mar.7/11 video by the lady Alex was refering to.

  103. bought exk 8.6 sold pzg bought back 2.73

  104. good time for EE to strike and add the next big leg down. Must remain hedged otherwise its all just guessing to me. Have no idea. Will Happy Tuesday emerge and tie Blythe's hands? Or will they strike afterhours or in the wee hours tommorrow and ledge down immediately to 30? Nothing surprises at this point. Never forget that we are not only trading a metal. We are trading against the government and against the power behind the government. At any instant they can move the goalposts 90 yards down the field. Strauss is a perfect example of a rapist gone wild who was never held accountable. A sick globalist who could not be caught or prosecuted after repeated forays in criminality,assault,battery and rape. These people litter the highest levels of the Empire now. There is no difference between the randy Frog and anyone manipulating price at JPM,Goldman or daytrading treasuries out of the Fed. I would never underestimate any of them.

    I would add that SI will go immediately to 30 and below to create as much fear as possible should an attack be coming. Hedging is my only form of protection at this critical level. Just me though, each to his own.

  105. @ Trinity Blue.

    Thank you sweetie. I am all in. lets roll!

    @ Raged

    Good move. You will be very happy with EXK. Great buy.

  106. Who the f**k knows? Why, Turd Ferguson knows! ( ;) @Steve and Sir Woody)

    Makes me think of Ginger's post a day or two back about the old E.F.Hutton TV ads.

    Is it starting to sound like SNL in here?

  107. Guys, could you please explain to me about options.

    When you go long call option for silver. What exactly are you long, what symbol I mean. SLV ETF?

    Not that i am ever going to gamble with leverage but just want to know.

    Thanks :D

  108. Ok community,

    After an incredible amount of DD, it seems that the consensus for the PM miners is that they will either remain dormant or go lower between now and Aug. The reasons for this are both cyclic and due to our current environment.

    As a group I wanted to get some average joe opinions. What do you guys and girls think?

  109. Although reaching oversold (maybe a small bounce), the GDX/XAU/HUI are all displaying a large H&S pattern.

  110. atlee -- ALL IN? That doesn't sound like you. What all ya got if you don't mind my asking?

  111. Well, I'm dipping my toes back in the silver call options.

  112. "However, it should be noted that, despite this logic, silver tanked in 2008 when the equities markets did. Fundamentals versus market psych. Market psych wins every time. "

    Yes it does, but you should also note that a general equities crash reflects reduced demand for everything, while the demand for silver may be inelastic on price of silver, it is not inelastic if the company making the product goes under.

  113. Must say EXK does look like a buy here..I ponder.

  114. Any of you see that old recommendation by economic Analyst - MountainView Energy?? Ouch! MVW.V

  115. @srsly? -

  116. History Repeats Itself: Silver Futures Manipulation in 2011 Mimics Gold Futures Manipulation in 2008

  117. Larry,
    Here's hoping things will get prettier on Happy Tuesday!

  118. Must admit these mining stocks are going to need some much needed liquidity going forward. They may drop further ( must resist buy button )

  119. I have been slowly selling my long USD position in favour of CAD this AM, but I have to say, I really question if it's the right thing to do.

    The profit is just too high to resist, but I am only covering half my position, as it seems to me that unless QE3 is announced and occurs immediately at the end of QE2, then commodities and commodity currencies like AUD and CAD are going to be a whole hell of a lot cheaper still.

    the very short term boost to stocks and commodities today was merely a reaction to a stronger euro, nothing more.

    If the dollar resumes it's recent trend later today or tomorrow...look out below.

    I would most definitely not be long any commodities in the face of the end of QE2 and the fact the debt ceiling agreement will be pushed to the very last second.

    I'd rather sleep at night.

  120. I can see mining stocks getting absurdly inexpensive before this runs its course. Keep your powder dry for now.

  121. Looks like those pricks want to push it down still. They are stepping on the gas today at 34.40.

    Looks like a test of the 200 MA is inevitable.. Hope I'm wrong, but they have unlimited resources to push it around as much as they want.

  122. NASDAQ & DOW have decoupled more than $600.00 on 1 futures contract.

    Never seen that before. They need to keep the DOW up .

    11% looses across the board does not seem unattainable. ( yes powder is dry besides long DXD )

  123. "I have been slowly selling my long USD position in favour of CAD this AM, but I have to say, I really question if it's the right thing to do."

    I'd question that too, a trade that has a 2% upside is too hard to resist?

    Can I ask why you have to come on here and lecture us?

  124. guys, what do you think about this video? it predicts 2 prices for silver: one for phisical and one for paper.

  125. This comment has been removed by the author.

  126. @srsly?

    In a nutshell, when an investor is long in silver on a call option, this means that they are actually buying silver contract(s)at a specified strike price before the contract expires. It is an option to buy a contract of the underlying (silver). Each contract is 5k ounces. Each contract expires at a specified day in each month:

    2011 Option Expiration Calendar:

    If you are expecting the price of silver to go up, you buy a call option. The farther away from the money the cheaper it is and the higher the return. Your risk is the option premium you put upfront to buy the contract. Its pretty straightforward. The hard part is to determine the direction of the underlying (silver). Google some more.


  128. atlee,

    exk has the potential to go to 7ish if silver drops to 28 dollars... be careful with this buy...

  129. Could someone please give me some advice on my position?

    I have $22k in PSLV leveraged out to $50k.. I am currently hurting BAD with about $7k (currently at a -$15k loss) ....

    What do I do now?.. Do I cut my losses and run home with the $7k left, or do I hold out - possibly losing it all?

    And yes I know I fucked up buying on margin, so no need to chew me out for it. But I'm just looking for additional recommendations from the outside.

    Please help!

  130. @Mark
    Article VI, Section 22 of The Convention makes it pretty clear that the IMF is expected to waive immunity for crimes like this:

  131. timebrk

    I am being sincere when I say this...GET THE FUCK OUT NOW!. This entire mess is going to come down for sure..think QE3..get short and quick maybe you can make up some of your losses.

  132. i wonder what the asians are going to think when they wake up in a few hours and see what happened today. buy or run for the hills?

  133. @ flaunt

    Just playing along with the troll Trinity. The only silver exposure I have today is 25 shares of AGQ I bought when silver was at 34.25. I bot a little EXK at 8.50 again today. But that is it. I am following Turds road map.

  134. i wonder what the asians are going to think when they wake up in a few hours and see what happened today. buy or run for the hills?


    Holding the real thing is pricless...but that is me.

  135. @California Lawyer

    exactly. This just doesn't make sense: people like him can afford tens of younger girls, all of which can be paid to shut up and forget what happened. People at his position are at so high position that every decision they make is worth thinking twice.

    I don't think it's a coincidence that he's been talking about SDR vs USD (remember what happened to Saddam once he start talking about using EUR?), that IMF was just to have meeting concerning Greece and the person to replace him (as IMF's head) will be former JPM man.

    If they wanted DSK back, hotel lady would be rich by now and she wouldn't tell a word.

  136. timebrk

    that is a very bad situation... i dont think q3 will be on the way to save you... i personally think that we will have deflation before we run again... armstrong said that we will test 1227 and i think that will happen...

    everyone who says the american dollar is trash blah blah is ignorant...and you are about to learn how valuable it is..

    get out of your trade and keep the 7 K for a better trade. money is money

  137. timebrk,
    No one can tell you what you should do. What many of us are doing is holding on and maybe adding this week until this market makes up its mind one way or another. I could say this was the bottom, but I also thoughr 40 would be and got my head handed to me.

  138. timebrk
    "you got know when to hold them and know when to fold em"
    Your risking everything on this one hand.
    The next 1-3 months are extremly uncertain. Silver could end up between $25 & 50...WTFK
    Card aren't stacked in your favor right now.
    Convince yourself to wait for a better set up and either go to cash or atleast lose the margin.

  139. @timebrk I feel your pain man, fortunately for me I'm just down about $1600, but this shit is just taking too much out of me, would like a good night's rest for once so I'm out... going long silver bears for the near future. Seems like 34 is the new resistance for paper and who knows how low this thing can go.

  140. @Concerned Citizen

    You are right. I missed that. In fact, the items that use silver are pretty much all discretionary type purchases, so an economic downturn would spell loss of demand.

  141. timebrk, if you take shill's advice and "get short," for the love of shit please buy put options and don't actually short anything. Not saying you should take that position, but it's better from a risk management perspective.

    shill what are you shorting?

    atlee - gotcha. I wasn't sure if you were serious or not. Who is this trinity character?

  142. @timebrk

    I won't tell you what you should personally do, but in general when a margined position is going against you the procedure is to sell out until the remaining position in unmargined.

    Then, a decision is made whether the unmargined remainder is a good investment at that price. That is, if you were in cash right now would you buy it here? If so one could decide to keep it, otherwise one would want to go cash with what is left and regroup.

    It is best to have an exit plan long before it gets to this stage.

  143. "I am being sincere when I say this...GET THE FUCK OUT NOW!. This entire mess is going to come down for sure..think QE3..get short and quick maybe you can make up some of your losses."

    Turd, can we get a face palm button on the new site? This comment is so bad I think it deserves the Picard double.

    "Maybe you can make up some of your losses" Shill you can make it up instantly if you want to go short, just sell a bunch of calls at OOTM strike. Done.

    The guy is in a tough situation, as are so many on this blog, what advice can you give? You need to make that descision for yourself.

  144. Averagejoe

    We even have news out of Cornell University that sustains the view that Elenin is playing a direct part in causing large earthquakes.

    Looks like this fall could be interesting.

  145. Does anyone have the link to Casey's chart of the historical corrections in silver? I have it printed out, but I'm not at my office.

    I regret selling not one of my silver miners. THey are all sitting at prices either far below or below my sales.

    THis is 2008 all over again. I'm just waiting for the rest of the markets to tank too. I've got my fingers on the short throttle.

  146. @timebrk I simply don't have the balls to ride Silver bull (or bear, which is the less known sport for sure, haha). I hold physical. You have 2x 3x, perhaps 4x guaranteed over long time horizon - it would be stupid to lose big % of your base money in just couple of days because you were too greedy.

    I'm long paper gold, however. I simply think it's more of 'international' and 'standard'. If Blythe's baboons bluff too much with knocking down the price, they'll might be caught with their pants down when suddenly PIMCO or someone big decides for delivery. And we're going to have a lot more people switching from paper to physical, *especially* among big boys trust me

  147. shill what are you shorting?


    I am shorting the DOW and NAS. Added some ZSL @ 18.75 and held is since..but will trade out of it tomorrow for a nice profit. And yes I was going to say Puts as well, but I did not want to confuse.

  148. I may be one of the most f***ed here. I've said this here before, but I bought a lot of AGQ when it was at 376. The losses I've sustained are stupendous. I don't know whether to sell all my AGQ at this giant loss (~65+%) and buy physical, or hold and wait for silver to get back to 48. (Will that be before 2012?)

    Or do I take my remaining dry powder and buy more AGQ? I have no skills, or experience, in puts or shorts, so hedging for me, that way, feels too risky, since I haven't done it before.

    What should I do with my AGQ, now that it's where it is?

  149. Now that was pretty fochin bloody.......woooo.....watta spankin

  150. timebrk, I wish you could make up yr mind whether it was iShares or Sprott Asset Mgmt that you left your tens of thousands with. And you should definitely read up on the margin policies of your broker, it would be important to know exactly at what price level the margin call may come.

    Your plea, if sincere, displays a fundamental lack of willingness to read. Please peruse the previous few posts for a guide in terms of possible directions the silver market may take in the near/medium term, as well as links to alternative perspectives. If not, try to at least keep your story straight.

  151. Diamond,

    I'm with you: -56%

    New Club Name: F'dbyAGQ

    Hoooly hell

  152. @diamond

    I don't know how you can sleep at night in the position you're in.... best wishes to whatever you decide.

    There are just so many questions, instability and unpredictability who knows what's right/wrong anymore.

  153. Took two positions this AM:

    SLV put and SDS call. Both seem to look like good decisions, except I was stopped out of both. Too gun shy to trade without tight stops now. Didn't lose much - don't have much I am willing to lose right now. Guess I'm back on the sidelines awaiting developments. If I felt sure we were headed lower, I would happily short. Not sure of anything right now, though. Frustrated.

  154. I’m looking for opinions on whether to buy silver or gold.

    It is hard to get over the hurdle of only getting 3 measly little ounces of gold for about the same price as 130 ounces of silver.

    I currently have 350 ounces of silver, but most of the headline stories concern gold. UT buys 1b worth of gold at Kyle Bass recommendation, or Mexico central bank buys 100 tones for dollar depreciation protection, etc, etc…

  155. srsly,
    Google humans best friend use it.
    Turd and others are talking FUTURES options,not for you at this time maybe never, some of the rest of us are talking STOCK options not as risky/rewarding.ALL of us are still learning at diff stages as we found out last week. In either case both will cost you dearly as you learn/burn.Not for the neophyte, faint of heart or financially challenged. Do not get sucked in by the more advanced people here they have decades of experience, git in where you fit in.If you don't know what someone is talking about don't try it til your comfy with the language.We are moving into the most dangerous part of the ride accumulating physical til you're ready is the best way to go. I started in 04 and I just started playing with stock options in Feb with 5-10% of portfolio, I now have 9 fingers.

  156. Shill what is expiry on those shorts of the DOW & NAS?

    You are going to trade out of ZSL tomorrow despite the fact that you are giving exactly the opposite advice in your previous post?

  157. Holy shit. AGQ is not something you want to hold onto for a long time. It's a decaying asset and may not even reach your purchase price even if silver were to go back to $48 in the near term.

    Are you "all in" on this AGQ position? If it's a large percentage of your portfolio I would take the loss now before you turn a 65% loss into something closer to 100%.

    When there is no clear direction in the markets you simply can not hold a large position or anything approaching 100% of your portfolio. The time to lever up and get crazy was when we were slicing through resistance points like a hot knife through butter.

    I'm honestly surprised there are so many people still working on blowing up their accounts. I figured most had been flushed at this point.

  158. Man. Diamond sharing inspired me.

    My ass is sore. Been doing pretty much everything wrong today. I bought the very very top of today at 35.3 and rode it down all the way to Turds stop at 33.8. Looks like it might even bounce here, but i'm too shellshocked to get back in at the moment. Perhaps for the better. Time will tell.

    Still got some gold and crude, and thats going to shit too from the looks of it.

    I should re-wire my buy and sell buttons on my platform. Then i might make a profit.

  159. Diamond,

    Feel for you buddy. You've got to cut your losses. Never do this again. You will not be left with simply a huge loss, but also a capitol loss to write off all future gains. Hanging on is madness. Pull up any silver miner, etf or etn and look at the 5-year chart. See what happened in fall 2008. That is where you will end up. Silver can easily drop to 28. I think it will.

  160. Diamond,
    Practically every new post says silver is going up, bounce coming, blah blah blah.
    At least you didn't buy options but you'll have to wait a long while to regain your losses. Silver will have to be in the 52$+ range before you see green.

  161. @Diamond wait till ~32 support (Silver spot) is breached - it can never go there however.

    Should you decide to hold - I guarantee you (GUARANTEE) Silver will be trading > $70-$100 by end of 2012 and that's very conservative. The question is... what would be $worth and what would that give you if you don't exit paper game early enough.

    Do you know what happened in Mexico when they were debasing their currency ? Their increased rates - but really really strong - so every1 was putting the money on their accounts. And that's what govt wanted. It happened during one night - everything got frozen, banks got nationalized and currency depreciated by huge % people lost nearly everything from their "savings".

  162. Diamond.
    I've said it once.
    I'll say it again.
    AGQ is a ponzi game.

  163. So whaddya think of Blythe's sister?

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

  164. timebrk,

    I speak from experience as to how to handle your situation because I've been there on a number of occasions and successfully traded my way out.

    Sell now and take the loss. I know it won't feel good because you want to chase and get your money back but no one knows which way silver is headed in the short term and the weakness lately leans to the short side if anything although technically, we should get a bounce.

    Without a clear direction, there's only one thing to do and that's sell and wait for a better entry point.

    It may not come for a few months so if you desperately needed that $22k, you may be shit out of luck or you can try to gamble.

    Silver moves dollars at a time so once we get a run, jump back in with high leverage and hang on.

    I lost my account several times (not getting out soon enough after a run) but kept reloading and trying until I got it right and I finally did.

  165. @SSK with today's equities market action and the looming threat of a serious equities correction, I am tending to agree with you and others' of the same opinion more and more. imo silver's still got a ways to run down. I'm completely out of silver until what imo is a coming secondary correction due to equities drops, and am now shorting the S&P and a few dogs like BAC and CSCO until there's some light at the end of this crappy tunnel. Made money on my trades today, which is more than I can say for my crappy week last week.

  166. kindabluzzay
    You should be careful with your guarantees.

  167. A little perspective... Silver's previous low at 32.50 has still not been violated, and the HUI closed up a couple of points for the day. The POSX appears to be rolling over at the moment. The DOW closed down 47 points... not exactly a crash.

    The poor silver miners on the other hand seem to be on the wrong end of a hedge fund algo and vomiting of stale long positions. Most are all fundamentally undervalued here, but the market forces are making them falling knives.

    Those in trouble with margin have to make tough choices. Others with deeply underwater but unmargined equity positions are suffering severe nausea, but still have some choices, including the option to sit tight.

    Others of us are patiently waiting for good entry points.

    If you learn to ring the cash register a little on the way up the way down is much less painful.

  168. I feel for those nursing their trading wounds from Bloody Sunday (being one myself, though 70% back to where I was before, and with more physical), and am grateful to have a community that would care enough to respond with advice and support. But I cannot shake the feeling that some participants are now just playing with heartstrings of other for fun (or profit).


    just sayin

  170. Didn't the crash in 2008 coincide with the utter collapse of the financial system? I definitely don't see that happening this time. At this point looks like it will test the 200dma ~30 though.

  171. This comment has been removed by the author.

  172. we'll get our answer on the globex tonight it appears, but the signs are looking really ugly for a break UP.

    this has poop smeared all over it. not a good start to the week.

  173. Diamond
    Don't worry about where it's been. THink about where it's going. If you had cash, would you buy it right here, right now? That's your answer.

  174. Hi Turd, hi all from a warmy Italy (as usual I beg your pardon for my English). Two weeks ago I moved in this way: when I saw the ratio gold/silver at 1:43 I change half of my gold (in a bullionvault) in silver waiting for another dip in ratio and/or in spot silver.
    If the ratio go to 1:50 I'll chage the other 50% of gold in silver if not... well it's time to wait when the ratio will be at 1:36 (for example) to re-chang the silver in gold ;)
    About some junior:
    Tinka (TK in Canada) is amortising very well what is going on with silver and all the others metals
    Great Panther: very well one week ago but today it seemed to capitulate.
    Yeah I have som paper silver trough ETFS here in Italy and AGQ, in fact I'm waiting to see some "up signals" to buy more of these as I bought them when spot silver was about 40$/oz :( (yeah: BOUGHT TO SOON (quite) OUT OF MONEY :P)
    About other metals I have something of "Copper Fox" (CUU)

    What do you think about ?

  175. @Michael - she blinks an awful lot on straightforward questions which require (from her) false answers. Also a curiously blank, emotionless, almost frozen facial expression. Licks her lips an awful lot. Rather reptilian. She's all yours.

    Also, just for kicks -- her first job outta college:
    NM Rothschild
    Investment Banking industry
    September 1989 – October 1995 (6 years 2 months)

  176. Diamond

    In my opinion you need to cut some of your losses so that you can avoid a total loss

    If you lose everything then you will not be able to trade again. Self preservation is goal number 1 in trading. Lets be clear trading on margin is not investing, its speculation and trading which can be profitable but is also an easy way to lose your shirt.

    You have to pick an easy setup where the risk / rewards is in your favor. Trying to pick bottoms can be very profitable but you need to be aware that you may be wrong 5-6 times before you are right and the only way thats going to work is with good entry points and tight stops

    I have lost 10% to 15% of my account since the peak but I am confident that I can make it back in the fall as long as I dont lose too much. It could be that Silver will not stage another rally before August (perhaps the summer doldrums came early this year), although I think like Turd there may be another run in June. But noone knows, dont bet it all on one trade.

    A good book for gold aspiring gold and silver traders is the gold trading bootcamp by greg weldon, shows you what the competition is doing (Greg has been a Comex floor trader and is very switched on, wakes up at 4am and goes through all the markets FX, credit, stocks, etc in all geographies before deciding his move)

    Good luck to all



    for the sheep who got skinned with AGQ and the shepherds who got rich with ZSL.
    There is some really fishy stuff going on with those two funds and some people are going to sue ProShares as a result.

  178. Jimmy,

    Turd gave a trading range of 35-33. What's worked for me was PATIENCE, buy puts at the top, wait for the bottom of the range, and go long. The patience is the hard feel like it's going to get away from you and run to the moon, like 4 weeks ago, and it's NOT. Or you feel like the bottom is dropping out, and it's headed to -50. It's NOT. I know these feelings. You really gotta get control of your emotions, I think to trade silver. Turd's technical analysis on trading ranges has been pretty spot on, so try playing it that way. Just a thot....

  179. Smarsack61 said: "you feel like it's going to get away from you and run to the moon, like 4 weeks ago, and it's NOT. Or you feel like the bottom is dropping out, and it's headed to -50. It's NOT. I know these feelings."

    Spot on. Thank you for the support. Made me feel better. :)

  180. You are going to trade out of ZSL tomorrow despite the fact that you are giving exactly the opposite advice in your previous post?


    CC I was in a rush with my posting, I may trade out of ZSL ( MAY ). As far as my shorts I trade stocks not options. DXD and QID are my holdings. Have to run duty calls be well.

    And buying physical here as well

  181. @concerned citizen

    Can I ask why you are here making silly assumptions?

    I plan to retire and buy assets in canada in future, where I have bought and sold property many times in the past 25 years, so by being short CAD I am going well against the grain, especially since I am a long term believer in commodities.

    I shouldn't have to tell you CAD is a commodity currency, or maybe I do need to tell you?

    So I am not expecting a 2% profit, I don't know where you pulled that number from, but I can guess.

    I am locking in a profit, which is just too hard to resist in this market, which often trades opposite to all reason, in a currency which relentlessy moved higher for 3 years.

    I do feel I am taking profit too early, on half my position, but maybe I will make 2% on that 50%, which would be roughly 6 month's living expenses, so nothing to sneeze at.

    Since I actively trade, 2% is actually a fabulous return for me in anything less than a month's time.

    By covering half my position I am in a win win position. If CAD trades higher I might decide to sell it again, and hope to get it back later on a 'risk off' panic.

    If the USD continues higher I get to take more profit along the way.

    I'll kick myself for having been too early, again, but I sleep very well every night, and that is much more valuable to me than any amount of $$$.

    End of today's lecture. : )

  182. Global EE, EAT MY SHIT. I am not afraid of you, no matter WHAT YOU DO

    To those on the wrong side of history.

    I plan on being there when your time comes.

    RON PAUL is the ONLY choice that talks about this.

    CUT THE NONSENSE ABOUT "ABORTION" + SOCIAL ISSUES. In two years, these issues will be NON-RELEVANT.

    We have a dollar crisis on hands and the fact that so many are complacently talking about how we will just linger through the years shows deep ignorance of Turd's motto:

    The END of Keynesian Economics is coming.



    Bit frustrated today. I wish everyone who is struggling and in over their head peace at mind. Find the good out of all of this, and don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose.

  183. Here's a contrarian viewpoint-

    At this point, I'm pretty much all in with my "Vegas" money on AGQ at about 34$ (silver price). No leverage, no debt, and I have a specific sell point of about 42$ to get a short term financial goal.... so if I have to sit quietly for 6 months to get there I'm fine with it. Trying to keep up with the trading has gotten really annoying and distracting, especially in this volatile market, I'd rather put my attention on other things.

    But I'll hang around to talk about canned bacon.... ;-)

  184. so Batterymarch unloaded about all 270k shares in EXK as of 5/12/11. Truth is their conference call was entirely underwhelming but i do like the prospects and focus on Mexico.

  185. First they ignore you
    Then laugh at you and hate you
    Then they fight you
    Then you win

    When the truth dies very bad things happen
    They're being heartless again
    I know its gone and there's going to be violence
    I've taken as much as I'm willing to take
    Why do you think we should suffer in silence?
    When a heart is broken there's nothing to break

  186. Well, I find myself in the unusual position of being one of the few bulls on silver today! At least a short-term bull.

    Bought back a third of the physical I sold in the forties. Am well aware that it might go back down to $30 or so (hence the remaining two-thirds), but this looks like a rosy opportunity to me.

    Despite the hostility I got for selling my physical, it feels like I can't lose here. By locking in profits by selling early, and getting a lot of dry powder, I can now buy more ounces. If the price goes up - great! If the price goes down, I still have more ounces and - at worst - I stand to make a smaller loss than if I hadn't sold during the crash.

    Vindication? (I'm not trying to be shrill or patronising - but I did get a lot of flak for 'selling out')

  187. @mockra...

    a break UP? UP? And you say that's ugly? I'd love to know what the signs are you're looking at.

    (my posting code word: 'telerfu'...hehe. Tell her FU

  188. A little dark humor ... From the Wikipedia entry on the Confederate Dollar:

    ""[Confederate] currency became practically worthless as a medium of exchange. In no small part this is because Confederate currency was actually not money, but bills of credit ... and concomitantly not secured, or backed by any assets."

    Sound familiar???

  189. IAATO

    It's all about the ounces.