As regular readers know, The Turd is extremely bullish on the long and intermediate term trends in the PMs. I do not make counter-trend bets. I stay long; only looking to swap or add positions in weakness. For fun, I like to test my predictive powers by putting in print my short-term thoughts. I'm constantly looking for clues that might indicate short-term direction and I'm afraid I may have stumbled onto something for next week.
This has, obviously, been a very challenging week. Like last week, everything looked rosy on Monday only to have Blythe and her minions relentlessly attack for the remaining balance of the week. The question becomes, will this continue into next week. I fear that it may, if only because of these two charts:
Next, check out crude:
For proper perspective, here's a daily chart. Still not great but not as bad, either.
I point these two out because, clearly, a rising dollar coupled with falling crude will almost certainly impact the PM trade next week, and not in a good way. I'm quite pleased with the way the metals have traded today. They're both hanging in there quite well given the dollar rally and silver almost certainly will make a new, post-1980 weekly high today. Also, gold clawing back and closing above 1372 is a very good sign. Let's just be cautious as we head into early next week. Gold could still slide back to 1365 or 1360 and silver could approach 28 again. I certainly hope not but, in the face of a rising $ and sinking crude, don't be surprised if it does.
I must add this, as well, from my friend Trader Dan:
I may add more later today. If not, look for another update tomorrow morning. Thanks!