Monday, May 2, 2011

Three Times in Five Days!

And, unfortunately, I'm not talking about my sex life.

The CME has now raised margins on silver three times in the last five days for a cumulative increase of about 35%. I can only draw one conclusion: This unprecedented move, taken in context with the significant reclassification of delivery-eligible silver by several of the major bullion banks 10 days ago, leads me to believe that the silver Comex is/was indeed in grave danger of failing.

Again, I apologize for the brevity. Today is Mrs Ferguson's birthday and I must go prepare dinner and cake. However, I want you to think about this: Why were silver margins raised and why in stages?

Plenty of reasons are passed around for margin hikes. The primary reason, though, is to control overheated speculation which is leading to a dramatic increase in the price of a commodity.

The politicians are all hot and bothered about energy prices but where are the crude margin hikes? Keeping oil prices low is of national economic interest but instead silver gets its margin raised.

Food prices are exploding but where are the margin hikes on corn and wheat? Every American, indeed everyone in the world is impacted by higher food prices, but instead silver gets its margin raised.

Is silver a vital commodity? Are the skyrocketing prices having a detrimental effect on jewelers worldwide? Can the U.S. suddenly not afford its annual quota of cruise missiles?

Ask yourself, why is it suddenly so vital to raise silver margins by 35%? Then ask yourself, why did the CME act in stages? They clearly knew that margin rates were going higher. These hikes were planned well in advance. Why did they not raise margins 35% last Monday and call it a day? I'll tell you why...because they knew that a one-time increase would be quickly shrugged off by silver longs and the hike would have no lasting impact. No, instead, they've chosen to raise in stages, thereby, holding longs at bay for fear of additional hikes at any time.

The CME/EE complex is desperately trying to squash demand for silver. The entire price discovery and delivery process of the Comex is collapsing. These desperate times are calling for desperate measures and you are seeing them play out in real time.

The key now is to be patient. If The Cartel is desperate to save the Comex and smash silver, we should let them. Besides, why would we want to see this magnificent cash cow slaughtered before we could extract every possible fiat penny? I had been expecting a selloff/consolidation from the period of 5/6-5/20. It is clear now that, since the Comex is going to survive May, the selloff began ahead of schedule. Let it play out. Let silver come in a little more over the next 5-7 days. I'll be looking to buy every time silver trades down between 40 and 42. As we move into late May, the market will begin to focus on the July delivery and we will once again roll to new highs, in silver and in our personal accounts.

Here's a four-hour chart that shows you everything you need to know.

 In gold, the situation is not nearly as intriguing. I expect further weakness here, too, as lots of buying energy was utilized in the two attempts to surpass 1575. It will consolidate now and even trade down toward 1520-25. I will be buying some August gold calls in this area.
Be happy. The Cartel is unwittingly leading us to great entry points in the days ahead.
Be patient. The "Death Dance of The Death Star" will begin anew in a few weeks.

TF

341 comments:

  1. First they ignore you,
    then they laugh at you,
    then they fight you,
    then you win

    On April 12th Paul Bain posted Ghandi's quote along with some comments from Irene. He said: "I think we are at step 2 we have seen a real increase in trolls laughing at us." Well, it did not take long to move from step 2 to step 3. Need I remind people to prepare? When we win in silver it most likely signals the end of the dollar.

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  2. Not what I wanted to hear...

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  3. It's probably around now that some of the brighter ones amongst you will be slowly working out what's really going on and who is really behind all of this. And it's not us - we're losing from this too, believe me.

    Be careful of wolves in sheep's clothing, self-enriching sociopaths masquerading as 'honest' or 'a man for the little guy'. They didn't become so filthy rich by those means, did they? And they certainly won't shed a tear for you when you're broken in half.

    Join the dots. Go on - I dare you. Why is silver where it is? Who benefits? How can they benefit from using you? What conduits will they use to get there? And how can they benefit further from then crashing the price?

    If you think the answer to any of the above involves the acronyms 'JPMC' or 'HSBC', then sadly there's nothing more than I can do for you.

    Trinster

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  4. Good summary Turd. The rest of the week should be "interesting" to say the least.

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  5. Nice contribution Trinity B.

    Anything else you care to enlighten us with? Actually, nevermind, why don't you save us the trouble of reading your useless posts by going away for good.

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  6. Turd and experienced traders, help me out here...

    Whe have already come from 50 to 42 and no fundamental has changed. Yes we had margin hikes, but shouldn't the fact that they are out of the way for a while be bullish?

    Turd, pleases explain to me why we have to go through a further correction, I would think this would have consolidated things pretty well by now. I mean if you haven't been scared shittless and headed for the hills by now you're probably gonna ride this thing out. I am.

    Suckers will sell on frear and weakness and miss the move up. We have seen it, this market is volatile and if you're not in you'll probably miss it. Plus how would you time it to begin with. I just don't get all this talk about heading south for a while. All the fundamentals are bullish, higher dollar, higher crude, what am I missing here???

    I'm just a newbie so please don't take offense, I just don't get it. The fundamentals are all there.

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  7. Allow the cartel their due. This is big boyz rippin the heart out of the margin players and when they are through with the newbie punk hedgies silver just might be below 38......wouldn't that be sweet. If you got greedy and held your entire position then close your eyes and don't look at your acct or CNBS for a few weeks. This is the game. The ones of you that are experienced traders expected this and are sitting on a lot of fiat here. The smartest ones of all are sitting on physical and laughing their arses off at all of us. I like to trade though and this is just another opportunity in a bull PM market.

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  8. Pailin,

    from the previous thread, you posted this:

    "XAG followers..understand that it's pinned under 44.50 and longs are taking little bites out of the huge sell sitting there. Either they fill their need and leave or they take out the short. Considering who the short is, that may not happen and when the buyers are full up...just remember this stuff drops faster than it goes up. It's risk/reward. If a nasty fast run down to 42 or even 40 scares you a lot, maybe it's not the right time to be holding for 47.25 right now. Cuz one is more likely than the other."

    Where do you see the big sell order at $44.50?

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  9. Turd, i was on commodities prop at a big EU bank and can tell you, the shenanigan's we pulled to push the market in our favor were unreal and are still going on today. I.e hitting the thin market in hours were only Asia is wake, sitting at my screens on a holiday weekend, frontrunning any sort of news thanks to collabo with the exchanges, and working with the research team on any quarterly commodity forecast calls. All of that.

    However, more importantly, MD always said to watch px action for the real news. And this is where today comes in.

    Whats disheartening is, i must say, the silver run is over. Id caution anyone wanting to buy the dip. Just as it has worked pretty much all year, the new trend will seem to be short the pop. And i have to tell you, short it the big desks will, and they have basically an infinite amount of firing power, no matter the margin raises as that mostly hurts the little pawns on the trade.

    Finally, a last note on margin increases.
    Silver daily range is about 8% recently. Margin reqs on the SI were 7%. Just something to think about.

    Long front-mo silver OTM puts for full disclosure.

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  10. Rickards had a good tweet:

    SNB and IMF to host High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System

    http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11156.htm

    Press Release No. 11/156
    May 2, 2011

    The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today announced that they will jointly host a second High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System. The conference will take place in Zurich on May 10, 2011.

    This conference will contribute to the ongoing debate about the reform of the international monetary system. The main topics include policy discipline and spillovers in a global economy, global liquidity provision at times of crisis, capital flows, and international reserve currencies.

    The conference will bring together a group of high-level participants, including central bank governors, other senior policymakers, leading academics and commentators. It will be co-hosted by SNB Governor Philipp Hildebrand and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The keynote speech at lunch will be given by Christine Lagarde, French Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry.

    -----

    I like the part about international reserve currencies, among others.

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  11. You're making me all hot, Trinity.
    Skip the "Deepthroat" cloak and dagger stuff, and just lay it all out.
    What is your interest here anyway, if not to benefit this community.

    You'll be a hero to many, and we'll have a telethon to raise money for your "breach of confidentiality" legal fees.

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  12. Yo Trinity B...spare us, we just aren't as bright as you...

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  13. Trinity,

    Sweet. I'll bite. Silver is where it is due to reserve currency debasement by "massive printing" (nothing is actually printed, it's all an instant digitized creation of wealth from nowhere) into the system along with the accompanying asset inflation. This is combined with the silver monetization movement as evidenced by the Silver Liberation Army and other pro silver individuals and groups.

    Who benefits? The same silver monetization movement people. A silver industry which was thought to be doomed do to dwindling demand until ten years ago. The can benefit by using us by having already bought silver at ~$4 and heavily invested in miners which are now like silver worth multiples of their previous price.

    What conduits will they use to get there? I suppose websites like this one and others. They'll attach themselves to a younger crowd because the young are always drawn into ideas invoking change, revolution, or a new way. They also are very plugged into the social media and can further spread the "gospel of silver".

    They can benefit by crashing the price by putting on leveraged short plays just as the banks carry.



    Now my take. I suppose any part of that could be true, or all of it. If silver monetization isn't in our future silver is going to implode like nothing we've ever seen before. It reminds me of a post Brian Flanagan had up the other day talking about rarity. Rarity isn't the end all be all of anything. There has to be a market and a desire for a commodity to work in tandem with rarity to establish a price.

    I posted the GFMS survey's on my blog last week and it quite definitively shows that industrial usage hasn't gone up that much. Not as much as we're told. It's investors (particularly coin) who make up the biggest growth areas in silver.

    World investment demand leapt to 279.3 million ounces last year, which GFMS estimated was roughly equivalent to a net inflow of $5.6 billion into silver. Implied net investment rose by 47% to 178 million ounces, with most of the demand concentrated in ETFs and physical bullion bars. GFMS noted coins and medals demand was also strong last year with offtake increasing 28% to a record 101.3 million ounces.

    So as I said it all comes down to silver monetization of which I have my doubts that we will ever see. Gold has been and always will be the preferred monetary metal, but silver *might* squeek in there simply because the industrial demands just aren't that great. Not nearly as much as you've been led to believe.

    Anyway, this was enjoyable. I'd love to hear other ideas. It all amounts to one big guess, but nonetheless guesses are fun.

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  14. say O'Flanagan...it is a strategic, vital and precious metal and you sir ...and I use that term loosely, are a moron...

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  15. @Turdle GG
    It was the ceiling the buyers kept hitting on the 5min chart for the last hour. They broke through. But understand, we've not seen the last of 44.50. 44.70 is not confirmation of "time to pile in, we're going for an elevator ride", at least not to me. I'm not God, I'm often wrong. But I'm cautious and thus not broke. Again if you say, 40? what me worry?, then that's cool too. It's where I'm sitting right now.

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  16. By the way, if I win whatever guessing game this was I demand a Turd Ferguson PEZ dispenser with the yellow hat and mustache and everything as my prize. Turd should seriously accessorize. He could make a killing.

    I'm ready to go long T.F. Gear particularly PEZ dispensers.

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  17. By far, the most annoying part of a drop like this is having to tolerate every douche-bag mouth breather troll coming on to the board to enlighten us with the wisdom that "the silver run is over".

    Thank you very much for the advice. Rest assured, should you ever spontaneously burst into flame, I would not even bother to piss on you to put the fire out.

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  18. smarsack61: I agree with your comment on earlier thread.

    The takedown was telegraphed. The warnings were shouted from the rooftops. Why?

    I see this as conditioning, the way that Pavlov trained dogs to salivate at the sound of a bell:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Pavlov

    The EE is using the MSM to train Retail to stay out of paper silver.

    The MSM warns Retail to stay out; Retail gets hit. The MSM warns again; Retail gets hit again.

    The next time MSM warns Retail to stay out; what will Retail do?

    They'll stay out, because they've been psyched out. They have been conditioned, through negative reinforcement (losing money), to stay out.

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  19. In case it was lost in the last thread repost.

    APMEX Current ASE Inventory

    2011 1 oz Silver American Eagle = 80755

    2011 SAE Tube May 13 = 516

    Silver American Eagle 500-Coin Monster Box

    2009 = 1
    2008 = 3
    2006 = 2
    2005 = 1
    2003 = 1
    2002 = 1
    2001 = 1
    2000 = 3
    1998 = 1
    1991 = 1

    I see no 2011 MB's
    My conclusion is that physical silver is disappearing at premium while the paper is getting cheaper.
    Buy physical!

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  20. Timpa,

    Sorry to break this to you but it has not yet nor do I expect it will ever be identified as a strategic metal. Want to go long strategic metals I advise looking at this list:

    aluminium oxide, beryllium, chromium, cobalt, diamonds, ferrochromium, ferromanganese, iodine, iridium, mica, niobium, platinum group metals, talc, tantalum, thorium, tin, tungsten and zinc

    That list above is a great way to invest for the coming decade. Count on it.

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  21. Yep, I am aware of who the real sociopaths are and their positions within our government, banking and corporate structure. Of course anyone who gives investment advice will talk their book, noone can talk any book but their own. So do your own due dilligence, manage your risk and accept that YMMV. And if you can come up with a fundamental reason why silver SHOULDN'T trade higher, I'd love to hear it.

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  22. It's my belief that we are going to soar in the PM's tonight. Just an educated hunch. I can't wait until China comes on, but I think they confine their trading in the Nymex hours when the volume can cover their activity.

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  23. Sumo,

    I dig your response - a lot. However, was retail ever in? I would argue they weren't. Or are you thinking just as it looked like they might really get in the drop happened?

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  24. "Brian O'Flanagan said...
    Is silver a vital commodity?

    Yes."

    There, I fixed that for you. No solar panels, various medicinal products and polyester without silver.

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  25. 25oz heavier today... dum dee dum...

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  26. Turd is crude next. Silver then gold now crude?
    or you think it still climbs from here?

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  27. PLEASE STOP BUYING FROM APMEX, THEY BANK WITH JP MORGAN!!!

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  28. @Mark
    First they ignore you,
    then they laugh at you,
    then they fight you,
    then you win

    Sounds like you are talking about the Donald :).

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  29. Retail in SLV. Hmm... Good point Pailin. I'd have to concede that. Sumo might be on to something. I've made myself a note to ponder on it more. It's one of the better guesses I've heard.

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  30. Trading volumes in globex gold and silver have really fallen away in AH today. This after more margin hikes on silver and a flash crash in JUN gold. There is almost zero volume in MAY silver, where the Bid/Ask is now 30 cents above the last trade, with no trading going through. The chatter is that as margin hikes and fear of margin hikes spreads, the smaller traders will exit. Making trading even choppier.

    Question: what happens when the physical market stops trading down in realtime along with the paper market? What happens when the spread begins to fatten up, without much movement? I've seen 10 ounce bars on Ebay selling for a higher price last night and today than when silver in the futures market was trading at 48.

    I say the spread between paper and physical, always there, is expanding.

    And more to the point--becoming stickier.

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  31. Yukon, don't forget Dysprosium! Anyone paying attention to precious metals needs to take a serious look at the rare earth elements, more emphasis on the heavies than the lights. The shit storm that is currently brewing in that sector is going to make the recent silver and gold action look like kindergarten. CNBS is even airing commercials for a special segment this Wednesday on whether or not rare earths are a good play or in a bubble. The fact they are even theorizing about a bubble there when China holds 97% of the rare earth resources on the planet and are planning to become an importer vice an exporter is all I need to know. Watching China start stocking up on silver and allowing their citizens to own it 2 years ago is what put silver on my radar. No reason for me to beleive that rare earths aren't going to follow suit, only THEY are strategic resources.

    China Builds Up Strategic Resources

    Critical and Strategic Failure in Rare Earth Resources

    US Seeks Rare Earths

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  32. I will tell you exactly who is doing this and the Trinster will back me up on this.

    The oil barons. Specifically, the ones that need oil at $200.

    And believe me, if they want oil at $200, oil will go to $200.

    Money goes where the gains are.

    We can't have any competition from silver now, can we?

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  33. First the silver bull is far far from over. I don't care what you think you know from having worked for a big EU bank. There may be a short dip in June which is the typical low for the summer. It may move sideways from there. But, we have very strange things going on from takedowns in the Globex thinly traded hrs, on holidays,, and triple margin raises.

    Like Turd says, this is very very unusual and indicates they are desperate. Things are heating up all over the world. People in greater quantities are scrambling to protect what little they have. I think an explosion in the metals could be near, the likes of which we have never seen. The signs are everywhere.

    There will be a QE3,4,5, to infinity until the dollar become worthless. This is the primary driver of the PM bull.

    There is very little above ground silver. Less than what there is for Gold. They know this and if the market finally discovers the correct price in silver, it is going to take down the entire global fiat monetary system. That is the number one reason silver is in the center of the vortex and is the focus of the entire worlds financial elites and those who are in the know like Turd and his brilliant followers. Make no mistake, silver is money and will one way or another assert its rightful place as such in the eyes of the whole world. It will, it has to become by default money just as it has been for five thousand years, only this time it will surpass even Gold as the preeminent form of real money. Silver must be suppressed at all cost. Silver is king and will rule. Silver, not Gold is their number one enemy, but it will destroy them. Mark my words !!!!

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  34. Markus,

    Various medical products that use very small amounts of silver. Traditional solar panels. Polyester that can be replaced by a substitute in most cases. Silver in electronics that can be recycled...etc. There are new technologies being developed that already render the old-school solar panels obsolete... I could go on.

    The point is... The higher silver goes up in price and the more people hoard it, less will be used, as manufacturers will look for cheaper alternatives. The very things many silverbugs are counting on will possibly bite them in the end. I hope everyone tries to keep an open mind and thing long-term outside the other side of the box.

    DDT

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  35. So for those of us who bought AGQ at $336...do we hold or do we try to trade in and out?

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  36. commie comex gotta make this look legit and get ugly so I predict they trash 40 and tomorrow we see 38. Can I have my yellow turd hat now lol. good luck turd and since it's your wifes birthday you will be -3 odds in the birthday sex lol

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  37. To Benny's point, Judas was paid in silver - not gold.

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  38. Sumo

    Might be right about that. In the end, I have no illusions, I am a little fish, easily gobbled and pooped out in unrecognizable form, so I gotta be able to dodge the teeth. I don't margin, and I don't risk too much vs reward, but they can still hurt me good.

    Yukon, Trinity,

    Isn't Salinas the Mexican billy that's pushing Ag monetization for Mexico? Could be some pocket change coming from there.

    Isn't China opening its own PM exchange in Shanghai? A disgraced Crimex would simply add fuel to the argument that NY/London/USD can't be trusted (duh!).

    Is Deutsche Bourse taking over Nymex, Globex too? Don't see how they would profit, but that just might be my myopic vision.

    People who can force cash settlements.

    Anyone else?

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  39. And for those who bought at $367, the same advice?

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  40. Justin,
    Good one! I'm still partial to Niobium as a tangential play upon natural gas as one of Niobium's many particular uses involves pipelines that carry oil and natural gas. Think of all the pipeline that's going to be needed... think Niobium.

    Leonard,
    So they want oil at $200. Okay. How does that play into silver being where it's at. I could see a case for gold, but silver? Are you suggesting that the big players are now utilizing silver as a currency along with gold and oil?

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  41. I talked about the "Sleep At Night" test on this blog months ago. I guess now everyone is getting a refresher in that.

    It's easy to get long, longer, way too long, and still sleep quite nicely while you are in a roaring bull market. That's what always happens. The trick is to never get yourself so overly long that a day like today will ruin you, shake you out, or take away months of hard earned gains. Keep the emotions of these last 24 hours fresh in your mind. Always think in terms of "How will another May Day Massacre treat my portfolio? Can I sleep at night with that?" You now have a much clearer picture of what is possible on the downside.

    Seems to me that some posts on the last thread by Pailin and Justin were voices of reason more or less along these lines, and I much agree.

    As for me, today sucked. I lost money. I went into the weekend longer than I should have, but I slept fine last night and will again tonight. Retirement plans remain very much intact. Still nicely up on the year. I have dry powder. I ALWAYS have dry powder.

    Free Boundary asked about CEF. What the hell now? I suspect I'll be adding some shares of CEF here and there. Depends on how I'm sleeping. :)

    Good luck everybody.

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  42. Read the latest Web Bots Report.

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  43. @optisciguy,

    BTW FX Oanda BANK WITH JPM as well...

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  44. to Head.....just curious what a pro trader like yourself is doing posting on a retail board like this? I have to say your enlightenment and insight is .....how should I put this delicately.....somewhat suspect. I guess you could be sincere.....but more then likely you are simply another pos TROLL.....hehehhe.

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  45. The dollar is down 19% from last year. It will continue to fall & Ben is still saying prices are not rising in the grocery store or gas pump.

    Obviously, he does not shop for the home food or fill up his own car (drivers govt. vehicle).

    great article!

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  46. none of what happened should have surprised us. this is not simply because there were "signs" there on friday afternoon, either.

    trading is about probabilities. anytime u hold contracts going into the weekend u risk massive beat down.

    pls see this to remind urself how it works

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIMwMsY0ndo

    i know i keep harping on it (but i do so b/c i've seen it happen so many times), don't overleverage urself otherwise u will lose even if u r right about the long-term outlook. in fact, several people (myself included) have been right about certain market movements in advance, yet have still lost money b/c of shake-out.

    especially when u own a variety of different instruments u should have a spreadsheet that can quickly estimate ur loss when Silver is at $X at anytime, this means miners, agq, futures etc and to make sure that u r prepared to make decision to either bail or hold regardless of what happens unless there is extreme circumstance dictating otherwise.

    also today's action prob made the witch & co a lot of money. not b/c of what happened today only but b/c they have effectively taken a big dump on all of us and they know many people won't be able to handle the stink for at least a few sessions or weeks now...

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  47. I will put it in plain english and excuse my french.

    If you dont buy this dip you are a fucking fool.!

    Turd knows I have been around along time and everytime I purchased I had to pinch my nose from the stench of this manipulated market.
    If you are down from a recent purchase HOLD !
    Nothing has changed but the desperation of the big boys that have to cover a short position or protect a default by the Comex.

    My advise

    BTFD !!!!!!!!

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  48. Why don't the big oil companies buy gold and silver miners?

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  49. @ben.roberts13

    Excellent commentary. I almost had a Peter SchiffAsm.

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  50. Oh for the christ's sakes. Saying "the silver run is over" is like saying the Daytona 500 is over after a few tangles after 50 laps. Right.

    I like reading other's opinions, but I'm taking the rest of the week off cause it's just not worth sorting through all the nonsense top calling BS.

    Really looking forward to the new Turd format as a troll-free, decent place to read and learn.

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  51. just ramblin some more

    do NOT listen to a topcaller in any market! ever!

    hence the old buffet saying "markets can remain irrational longer than u can remain solvent".

    sure anything that rises steeply can crash, but no one ever times it right. in fact, if u read about all the guys who shorted subprime, there are hundreds of traders who were short years before going into it who were wiped out even though they were right. (and that market was overvalued with a reason to fall unlike silver).

    anyone calling a TOP should be ignored. if paul tudor cannot do it (he describes this in his video documentary and is probably the wealthiest true technical trader on the planet), i can assure u the dipshit 27-yr-old in his parents' basement or the asshat on wall street who considers buying bottles and whores "asset allocation" can't do it....

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  52. O'Flanagan: gee, only a couple of hundred of uses for silver. I've seen your posts before, you're a plant & a "useful" idiot.

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  53. Yukon...apparently you don't consider national defense strategic as in cruise or tomahawk missiles...or how about torpedoes...or how about almost all electronics...how old are you 17?

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  54. Stusual,

    what's the link to the web bots report?

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  55. Here's a little James Turk for all you top-calling Trollsters out there.

    Hopefully this will also serve to calm the nerves of some of you on here who have been freaked out by this latest round of manipulation.

    I, for one, will continue to BTFD w/ as many of my worthless Benny Buck Clown Credits as possible and welcome these moves down since I'm only into the phyzz and will stay outta the paper game.

    Enjoy! Thank you for everything Capt. Turd and thank you to all the other great contributors on here.

    FUBM!!!

    James Turk Interview on KWN: Silver Forming Another Bullish Flag Formation

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  56. @Trinity B

    (Italian accent)Trinity B, I know it was you, you broke my hart.(Kisses cheeks)

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  57. @Ledbedder

    silver is not any more vital than copper. So buy copper and short silver if that is your criteria.

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  58. Happy birthday Mrs. Ferguson, I hope you and the Turd have a great time celebrating. Behind every great man is a great woman, so thanks for you!

    Turd, always great to see it when my personal outlook & assessment tracks with your own. Feeling good Lewis!

    Enjoy. And many happy returns Mrs. F!!!

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  59. Oh! And a Happy B-Day to Mrs. Turd also! Party on!!!

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  60. @Yukon,good call last week, you are a true killer, kool,and calculateing. glad your on ourside.

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  61. I read, but rarely post.

    Right now I have just one question: who the "f" is Brian O'Flanagan?

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  62. @ Chris

    I'm the guy on the Lucky Charms box

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  63. Catseyenu, I have a different theory about silver inventory "disappearing" from various web sites on beat-downs. Understand that silver dealers make money on the spread, i.e., they buy silver at X (usually a slight discount to spot) and sell it at X plus some markup (let's say 1% or 2% above spot).

    Now let's say you're a dealer and you continued buying inventory on the climb to $49. Then the EE tanks the market by 9% overnight. You bought your inventory at a weighted average of say $47. Are you going to sell it for $44 and take an immediate loss?

    My guess (bet) is that when you see available quantities drop on web sites like Apmex on sharp declines in silver, it's not because they sold out. It's because they pulled silver off the market temporarily to avoid taking losses in selling. To the extent they can buy new inventory at the lower price, they'll sell it. When prices go back up, they'll bring the withheld inventory back online. If they're a rational business, they'll do what they can to manage their inventory and avoid going broke.

    So as much as I'd love to believe silver nearly sold out at online retailers everywhere today, I don't think it did.

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  64. @Save_America1st: Thank you for that James Turk article link from KWN.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Silver to $40? Bring it on! I'm hedged with May puts at $39 and will be BUFD with both hands at those levels!

    If you're trading paper, today's action should be a lesson to take some profits at highs and hedge against vicious EE beatdowns by buying insurance (puts) opportunistically when you can.

    Good luck to all!

    ReplyDelete
  66. @Lucky Charms

    So what are your intentions? To convince people silver is not worth investing in? What are you trying to accomplish here?

    ReplyDelete
  67. @Yukon,

    They gotta smash silver to teach folks that you can't make a quick buck there, that it's unstable, that OIL is where you want to be...

    And Trinity I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you are who you say you are, but I sure as hell hope your using an untraceable proxy to hide your ass coming on here, and I hope you know that our resident TPTB poster here said a couple weeks ago that you've gone rogue and will be "dealt with".

    ReplyDelete
  68. @Chris

    To convince people that silver is nothing special. Silver is not going to bankrupt JPM. Silver is not going to bankrupt Comex. Bernanke does not care what the price of silver is. Silver is not going to change the world.

    that's not to say is isn't a worthwhile investment. I hope it keeps going up and everybody makes a lot of money.

    But it is not a magic metal, the cure for all the world's problems. It's a commodity, nothing more, nothing less.

    Just my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  69. "By far, the most annoying part of a drop like this is having to tolerate every douche-bag mouth breather troll coming on to the board to enlighten us with the wisdom that "the silver run is over".

    Thank you very much for the advice. Rest assured, should you ever spontaneously burst into flame, I would not even bother to piss on you to put the fire out."

    AMEN! Couldn't be said any better...

    ReplyDelete
  70. Darth: ya nailed it. As usual.

    Justin: ditto what you said on REE & Dysprosium in particular. Now is the time to accumulate some best of breed REE plays.

    I've gotten whipsawed on UCore so far- - I own at 1.04 p/share. Fukushima didn't do wonders for them due to their uranium play. But the loss is only on paper, and I'm giving UURAF plenty of time. When I feel they've bottomed I'll add a lot of shares and drop my pps. I'm also buying Commerce Resources and Medallion on recent weakness. Any new REE buys or watchlist entrants on your end?

    ReplyDelete
  71. To the folks who keep asking about what to do with their AGQ:

    There are three choices.

    If you are done with AGQ based on your experience then get out. Don't screw around prices can fall. Get out and start healing. Stay in and you are driving drunk.

    If you think you still want to trade again then try and get out on a peak and then sit until it gets low enough for you. This is just more trading...sell high, buy low, sell higher, repeat except that there isn't a first "buy low" for you. For this scenario you have to IGNORE the price you bought at.

    If you think silver is going back up and you don't think you can time the dips and peaks in this choppy market then sit and wait it out.

    Exiting is a similar decision to trading in or up.

    As you can see from the blog there is a variety of opinion on where price is going over the next while. Even the experts are thinking twice before buying here and it's too bad that that's not an option now but face it, that's not an option.

    Decide which of the 3 attitudes you have and then execute. There is no sure thing and don't belive anyone who says there is.

    ReplyDelete
  72. JoeKa...

    You're welcome man! Hope it helps out others too. I do like reading everything on KWN...after I read and catch up on my daily Turd of course!

    BTFD and FUBM! :)

    ReplyDelete
  73. @SilverLeaf,

    I think it's a mixed bag with some dealers holding onto inventory while others sell at the current spot plus premium. I've raised this before with a dealer, questioning why, in an up moving market, they don't charge cost plus but rather spot plus. The answer I received was that they needed to replace the metal so they charged for the cost of replacement. Even though this one dealer operates this way (although who knows if he honored this today), I'm sure there are some who just take a holiday and claim to be sold out.

    ReplyDelete
  74. @Happy in Woods

    Thanks, I have made a lot with AGQ, exited and got tempted back in last week. Rather large faux pas!

    Thanks, I'll sleep (?) on it.

    Good luck to you!

    ReplyDelete
  75. If you think silver is going back up and you don't think you can time the dips and peaks in this choppy market then sit and wait it out.

    Exiting is a similar decision to trading in or up.


    This. Ah, clarity.

    If it was easy, though, everyone would be doing it. I sleep fine, thanks.

    A fine contribution, Happy.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Is China open at 8:00 CST or EDT?



    btw... someone who has Turd's ear, please suggest to him to put up a temporary forum. Most domain hosts have a free forum available. its not difficult and it would be very useful as we wait for the new sight.

    ReplyDelete
  77. @pbforn
    @Diamond
    Re your AGQ positions.

    Next rally exit your positions and come back in lower or stay out. I will try to help but know that I am not clairvoyant. It is possible I will get you out and the mkt will still go higher. It is going to be your call on pulling the trigger. I believe if you just hang on you will be eventually be vindicated but the bull shit is going to get really deep and the fear mongers louder. There may also be the time value of being tied to a losing position. I don't know. It is entirely possible that it is profitable again by the end of ths week.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Coin shop report - went in there this afternoon and they still had a massive pile of generics for sale. Too bad the premium went up from $1.50 to $3 for generics, from $1.50 to $4 for englehard, and from $2.50 to $5 for maples and $5 to $7.50 for eagles.

    They blamed it on the smelters and said that this weekend the smelters would not buy anymore scrap silver because they were "backed up". My poor coin dealer has loads of scrap silver he can't sell because the smelters aren't buying.... so therefore premiums go up on everything (why exactly? lol).

    How convenient!

    But, just to help a citizen out, he would sell me some generics at $48, even though he was "into them at $48.80 and taking a loss on this."

    ReplyDelete
  79. @head

    Wow, what does a hotshot like you think people will be turning to when the dollar drops to 50-60 on the DYX ? Gold? too expensive for the common man. More berknake bucks? how about chucky cheese tokens? Same difference.

    The one thing people can turn to is the historicly proven use of silver, plenty enough to go around , but not not overly plenty.

    It makes sense because it works.

    ReplyDelete
  80. I thought this was a great post Turd. Thanks for that as always.

    I consider myself fortunate as I purchased all my PMs in the fall. All cash. 80/20 Ag/Au ratio.

    Not that I have a grand pile but a nice little one.

    My respect to all here who trade it. The mettle. It looks both exhilarating and terrifying at once.

    Roller coasters reign supreme.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Lots of boogey men showing up on the blog tonight. They only grace us with their presence when mkt action has blasted a huge hole for them to walk thru. Where were these brilliant minds/prop traders last week. Where were they when we were rallying through 47 today? F*K em. Don't let the phony bastards get you down. They are know nothing weaklings charading as experience. You can bet that if the mkt goes up big tomorrow they will disappear. But if it goes down, they will be berating us with their wisdom. They only come out at night.

    It is also incredible to me how the physical buying preachers become such excellent prophets of price action when the mkt is headed lower. The answer is that no matter how right buying physical is, it is about as exciting as watching paint dry. Buying physical is like being told to brush your teeth and floss.
    We all know it and do it. I wish they would have the balls to go preach to the unwashed.

    ReplyDelete
  82. @atlee

    Thank you, that is very helpful. I truly believe I will eventually be OK. But, as you stated, the time-value and the gut-wrenching could get to be a bit much.

    Thanks, again, much appreciated. I will be following as best I can all week.

    Good fortune to you!

    ReplyDelete
  83. Wise words Atlee,

    Id like to see more people buying Physical on dips, and using paper elsewhere

    ReplyDelete
  84. "SleepingVillage/ said...

    ...

    The point is... The higher silver goes up in price and the more people hoard it, less will be used, as manufacturers will look for cheaper alternatives. The very things many silverbugs are counting on will possibly bite them in the end. I hope everyone tries to keep an open mind and thing long-term outside the other side of the box."

    I hope noone is counting on that exclusively. And I hope everyone considers all alternatives.

    But fact is that silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity and doesn't degrade, and is also anti-bacterial, which are some unique properties that just cannot be made up by a substitute. Another fact is that even though industrial/commercial demand makes up about 80% of the demand for silver, in most applications only tiny amounts of silver are used that don't make up much of the product's price. This means that those guys don't care what they pay, 10$ per ounce or 100$ per ounce, because even huge silver price differences only influence the price of their product by a very small amount.

    Silver's stockpiles have been depleted gradually over the last ~50 years, and during a 10x price increase over the last 10 years commercial demand for it has not only been stable, but actually increased. Both those observations alone completely discredit your point, and serve to validate mine/ours.

    Also let's remember that gold has virtually no industrial uses and still is in high demand due to its monetary component, which is just as valid for silver.

    No offense, but be it disinformation or just plain wrong interpretation of the facts at hand with no harm intended, what you wrote needed to be refuted.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @atlee

    Thank you for the encouragement re: my AGQ positions. I will hold, and then probably sell once it gets past 376 again. I just wonder how long, and how deep, the bullshit you speak of will take to play out before ag gets back to 48-50.

    @Happy

    Thank you for your suggestions on what to do with AGQ. Despite my decision to hold being like driving drunk, I will hold, and keep my eyes on the road, and hands on the wheel. After 376-386, I'm out.

    ReplyDelete
  86. All of this just doesnt pass the smell test. Starting back last week with the Bernake taking questions at the same time Obama finally releases his birth certificate, two margin hikes last week, massive sivler short covering last night, Bin Laden being killed (DNA test confirming and then burial at sea) and the another margin hike today ???

    All of this just does not pass the smell/gut test. Something MAJOR is brewing. My advise, BUY WITH BOTH HANDS ON THE PHYSICAL MARKET ! And get your "preps" squarred away, because "Dorothy, were not going to be in Kansas anymore"

    Along, the North Border.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I washed/flossed my balls already, Im jus sayin

    ReplyDelete
  88. More great perspective from Dave in Denver:

    http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/05/pure-criminality.html

    Pure Criminality
    I hope precious metals newbies have not been emotionally derailed by last night's obvious ambush of silver by the corrupt Wall Street bullion bank cartel. It's funny because just yesterday I was chatting with my significant other, who happens to be from Las Vegas, about organized crime. She mentioned that Vegas is full of organized crime gangs, not just the casino mafia. I replied that any area that generates tons of cash flow is mired with organized crime and extreme corruption: Vegas, DC and Wall Street most prominently (obviously there are others but those are the biggest). Little did I know that several hours later the action in electronic silver trading would ironically highlight my point about Wall Street!

    Make no mistake about it, what occurred last night right at the open of electronic futures trading in gold and silver was nothing more than a very aggressive attempt by the big Wall Street banks who are irrationally short paper silver to shake out weak hands in order to reduce the fraudulent short positions in paper silver. Anyone who thinks last night's action - as reported in the mainstream media - was connected to a feared slowdown in China or the Bin Laden thing or the Bolivian mining news is either hopelessly naive or pathetically ignorant of the facts.

    So let's look at some facts. First, no other commodities were hammered. If China slowdown fears were the culprit, shouldn't all of the base metals used in industrial production have been hit hard along with silver? Seriously. Even more telling was the fact that the dollar barely moved in either direction last night - and it's below 73 right now. The media loves to explain movements in gold/silver with inverse movements in the dollar. How come the dollar was not doing a moonshot in response to the gold/silver cliff-dive?

    Second, the CME has been raising silver margins regularly now. We are not seeing this in other commodity contracts. In fact, the margin on Comex silver was raised over the weekend from a little over $12k to a little over $14k. That's over 30%. The margins on gold were not raised. The CME always seems to raise silver margins when silver is moving sharply higher and when all of the evidence points to physical silver shortages. That latter point was apparent to me when I saw the very low number of delivery notices handed out. Typically a large percentage of the open contracts are given notice and delivered within the first few days of a delivery period. Not this time. What this tells me is that banks with large counterparty delivery positions (i.e the ones with big short positions, like JPM and HSBC) are going to make an aggressive attempt to induce weaker hands to puke their positions before JPM and HSBC are actually required by contract law to make delivery. Let's see how this plays out over the next 3 weeks. Last notice day is May 27th and you can monitor delivery activity on the CME website.

    Third, some big off-Comex futures brokers raised their in-house margin requirements for silver to double or more than double the required margin at the Comex. The most prominent firm, and one of the world's largest commodity brokers, is MF Global. MF Global jacked its margins on Friday to a little over $25k. MF Global happens to be run by ex-Goldman CEO Jon Corzine. Hmmm, anyone think there is any connection between Corzine and the big firms who control the Comex? How about between Corzine and the CFTC chairman who is also an ex-Goldmanite? Another very large futures broker, thinkorswim - which happens to be owned by Ameritrade - raised its margin on silver to over $30k. Anyone besides me understand that Ameritrade caters to small, individual speculators who were likely forced to sell to cover this margin hike?

    See more via link above

    ReplyDelete
  89. atlee. Hugely generous of you to offer some hand-holding. Your market assessments in real time and for the immediate moment's action are as solid as they get. If I could amend my post I would.


    Disclosure. I'm sitting with no dry powder and a pile of agq from last friday. Not having a problem with what do to I follow my own advice about the 3 ways to go. And I'll trade out and in when I can control my emotions. This is my first real burn although not 3rd degree. Also have lots of phys and miners and I'm sitting tight on that.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Regarding AGQ, I think there few of us who can pick a top or bottom with any precision. I will be buying a little bit of it everyday (increasing amounts as I get profitable positions) and backing each new position up with a stop loss (but not too tight).

    Today wasn't fun (about 25% of peak cumulative profits as stops kicked in) but this type of approach kept me solidly in the black and now I'll start to rebuild my position.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Replacements for silver? Anybody out there have a mortar and pestle and an enchanted ring of grand puissance? A degree in Alchemy perhaps?

    Time and money.

    ReplyDelete
  92. timpa said...

    Yukon...apparently you don't consider national defense strategic as in cruise or tomahawk missiles...or how about torpedoes...or how about almost all electronics...how old are you 17?

    Hi Timpa. Not sure where your anger is coming from. Sadly I'm not 17, but I wish I was again and my wife does as well I'm sure. :)

    Being a strategic metal isn't just a word combination that gets made up and thrown around - it actually means something literal and specific. Being a strategic metal means that it's a metal that's deemed essential for industry and/or national security and also (and most importantly) that there is little or no domestic supply.

    So I spoke from the context of someone that lives in North America and with which there is no shortage of silver mines operating hence it is not a strategic metal. I can only assume that you are writing from a country that is not currently a silver producer such as Italy and were speaking from that mindset.

    So to help clear things up, silver will never be a strategic metal for at least the following countries:

    Top 20 Silver Producing Countries in 2010
    (millions of ounces)
    1. Mexico 128.6
    2. Peru 116.1
    3. China 99.2
    4. Australia 59.9
    5. Chile 41.0
    6. Bolivia 41.0
    7. United States 38.6
    8. Poland 37.7
    9. Russia 36.8
    10. Argentina 20.6
    11. Canada 18.0
    12. Kazakhstan 17.6
    13. Turkey 12.3
    14. Morocco 9.7
    15. India 9.7
    16. Sweden 9.2
    17. Indonesia 6.9
    18. Guatemala 6.3
    19. Iran 3.4
    20. South Africa 2.8

    However, for those individuals such as Timpa who live somewhere where there is no silver production then yes it might be a strategic metal.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Please go read Jesse. He is a man of few words that carry a multitude of wisdom. here is the link.
    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  94. ewc58 nice. all sentiments I've had as well. Just wondering where london will take us tonight. Last chance for them before happy tuesday? singapore seems to be loving the price and eating it up. Would anyone be interested in a live chatroom? I can set one up just in a temporary way of course.

    ReplyDelete
  95. F said...
    I flossed my balls already, Im jus sayin
    ---------------

    I say...Your balls are well segregated friend!!
    Ever thought of a sideshow career at Vegas to showcase 'em?

    ROFL

    P.S. Mine are too hairy to floss. So I've stuck to perming them.

    ReplyDelete
  96. If anyone ever says that we are conspiracy nuts send them here:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/16970135/September-11-Commission-Report-Revised-December-2008

    If interested look down to page 20, section III, subset D, great stuff on the bullion banks.

    ReplyDelete
  97. atlee,

    It's not boring when you paid 5 and 10 dollars per oz. :)

    ReplyDelete
  98. stusual they want 10 bucks! I'll read it but they are wrong an awful lot of the time.

    ReplyDelete
  99. @Chris and in case anyone is wondering:
    Brian O'Flanagan
    "Darien Wealth Strategies LLC is a trading firm specializing in gold and related currencies. The company trades futures, options, ETFs and physical metals." Mr. O'Flanagan has what appears to be not insignificant experience and expertise in the trading of precious metals. His most recent comment is quite reasonable, actually. The things I take exception to are the rather, shall we say, lopsided analytic viewpoints taken in his musings on silver:
    Rarity Does Not Equal Value
    Comex Explains Large Adjustment in Silver & Gold Registered Inventories
    Will a Silver Collapse Impact Gold?
    Fake Silver Coins Seized at O’Hare
    Signs of a Top: CNBC Sends Reporter to Coin Show
    More Misinformation from Zero Hedge
    John Embry: Ebay Sales Represent the True Price of Silver
    "When gold and silver bugs cry about the lack of respect from mainstream investors and the media, the reality is that they only have themselves to blame. As industry leaders and spokesmen constantly pump out nothing but hype and misinformation about their products, it is no surprise that they have no credibility with rational people. To wit I present the statements of John Embry, Chief Investment Officer of Sprott Asset Management"

    Are you noticing a trend here?

    ReplyDelete
  100. Any possibility of the timing also being related to upcoming silver miner earnings announcements over the next two weeks? A volatile smash-down like this could cause miners to give guidance that is a little more cautious than they might have if silver was just pegged at $50+.

    ReplyDelete
  101. @Diamond. Maybe I could have written my adivice differently.

    Driving drunk is having decided to be DONE with AGQ forever and yet not actually selling it because 'maybe there is a better price'. Translated it means not admitting to trading but actually continuing to be in a trade.

    Holding because you aren't done trading it yet is the 3rd attitude.

    ReplyDelete
  102. @ Yukon,
    Good call on that one, nat gas taking off would require a a lot of new infrastructure.

    @ ewc58,
    Ucore is still my only REE play. I'm a little more underwater on than you, I got in at $1.19 and have been buying more on the way down. I'm hoping this current level holds though, I'm ready for this one to get caught up to the rest of the field.
    No other REE miners for me currently, I've looked at all the popular ones and Ucore still does it for me based on them having the largest deposit of heavy REE's in North America. I think the government was shocked after seeing the Department of Energy's fact finding report on non-Chinese strategic resource supply sources, so much so that they started a second request for information. The DOE also just doled out $30 million in grants to fund research on rare-earth alternatives used in turbine generators and EV motors. Seems they know there is going to be a shortage and are preparing accordingly, probably more so for the military applications of many rare earths that have no alternatives.

    $30 Million in DOE Grants for Green Technologies Free of Rare Earth Elements

    US Department of Energy Solicits More Information On Critical Materials

    ReplyDelete
  103. yes CD - the trend is factually accurate posts debunking the massive amount of misinformation spreading throughout the Internet on a daily basis.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Happy Birthday Mrs. F !

    Thanks very much for allowing Mr. F to spend so much time on this blog.

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  105. For some more perspective on people's bias, look at the volume comparisons between AGQ and ZSL.

    Volume today on AGQ was big, but the ZSL volume was off the charts insane...

    So, I ask- who is being set up for the kill?

    Short interest in SLV was so crazy the past 3 weeks that shares were getting too scarce to borrow. Then today's price action to encourage even more short interest and even riskier margin bets on the short side.

    It's no secret that the Big Commercials on the COMEX play no favorites- they will scalp their own fellow shorts to make some profit.

    I went long AGQ in Aug2010 at 53 bucks. Sold half my position at 220, and will sit on the rest.

    The cash is going into the miners. HL is forming a HUGE symetrical triangle from the March2011 high/low that is closing in rapidly around the 9.25 level. MACD in HL has been very nearly comatose for the past 3 weeks.... Something's gonna snap.

    I made a fortune in HL in 2009; can I do it again?

    ReplyDelete
  106. In May 2009, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari confirmed that his “counterparts in the American intelligence agencies” hadn’t heard anything from Bin Laden in seven years and confirmed “I don’t think he’s alive.”

    ReplyDelete
  107. On November 2, 2007, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto told Al-Jazeera’s David Frost that Omar Sheikh had killed Osama Bin Laden.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Happy & Atlee-

    Thank you for some very solid, sensible, actionable advice. I'm thinking I'll hang on, I was moving toward a "buy and hold until Turd's Top" strategy, this situation just shoves me into that category sooner rather than later. I'm in this for the long haul so if it takes 2 months to get back to green, I can live with it.

    ReplyDelete
  109. In March 2009, former US foreign intelligence officer and professor of international relations at Boston University Angelo Codevilla stated: “All the evidence suggests Elvis Presley is more alive today than Osama Bin Laden.”

    ReplyDelete
  110. In November 2005, Senator Harry Reid revealed that he was told Osama may have died in the Pakistani earthquake of October that year.

    ReplyDelete
  111. In October 2002, Afghan PresidentHamid Karzai told CNN that “I would come to believe that [Bin Laden] probably is dead.”

    ReplyDelete
  112. Brian -- I am sure you see it that way. To a less informed observer, it may appear that the only time you stoop to even mentioning silver is to point out that it is in a bubble, overhyped, overvalued, and in all ways an inferior investment to gold. Which is not to say that gold is not an excellent investment, nor that you should be obliged to like silver.
    Report Confirms No Premium Cash Settlements for Silver Longs (3/25)
    Bob Moriarty: Is Silver Topping? (3/25)
    Getting Bearish On Silver…Just a Little
    "We believe silver prices may have formed an intermediate term top and have initiated a small position to benefit from a decline or trading range that keeps silver below $36.50 over the next six weeks" (3/11)
    "Turd Ferguson. Turd is a smart guy that has a great understanding of the silver and gold markets, but he unfortunately panders to the conspiracy crowd by bringing up Blythe Masters in every post. His commenters likewise parrot those views with any dissent being entirely unwelcome. If he just stuck to the charts, it would be a great site." 3/4
    FYVM, Mr. O'Flanagan

    ReplyDelete
  113. On July 17, 2002, the then-head of counterterrorism at the FBI, Dale Watson, told a conference of law enforcement officials that “I personally think he [Bin Laden] is probably not with us anymore,” before carefully adding that “I have no evidence to support that.”

    ReplyDelete
  114. @Happy

    Thank you for clarifying. I will certainly hold. I am also considering buying more while it's at these low levels. (I would't think that that's too much of a drunk move.) (In that buying at 296 to hold, or even trade out of, after 370+, wouldn't be a foolish plan.)

    ReplyDelete
  115. Osama Bin Laden Pronounced Dead… For the Ninth Time

    Given Bin Laden’s documented kidney problems and consequent need for dialysis, government officials, heads of state and counterterrorism experts have repeatedly opined that Osama Bin Laden has in fact been dead for some time. These assertions are based on Bin Laden’s failing health in late 2001 and visible signs of his deteriorating condition, as well as actual reports of his death from the same time frame.

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/osama-bin-laden-pronounced-dead%E2%80%A6-for-the-ninth-time.html

    ReplyDelete
  116. atlee - Great commentary today! Very interesting and informative. Thanks!

    Are you still carrying a running core position in AGQ?

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  117. @Northern Border -- I believe the expression is "Buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, 'cause Kansas is going bye-bye"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JJuHpfN5g

    ReplyDelete
  118. ben.roberts13,

    I've noticed over the last few days that you've posted often about "the truth" and your search for it.

    What have you discovered that makes you confident that silver and gold will be allowed to continue to rise in price? Or, are PMs the one thing that TPTB cannot, ultimately, manipulate to suit their ends?

    This is a serious question.

    ReplyDelete
  119. In July of 2001, Osama Bin Laden was flown to the American Hospital in Dubai for kidney treatment. According to French intelligence sources, he was there met by the local CIA attache. When the agent bragged about his encounter to friends later, he was promptly recalled to Washington.

    On the eve of September 11, Osama Bin Laden was staying in a Pakistani military hospital under the watchful eye of Pakistan’s ISI, the Pakistani equivalent of the CIA with deep ties to the American intelligence community.

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/osama-bin-laden-pronounced-dead%E2%80%A6-for-the-ninth-time.html

    ReplyDelete
  120. atlee

    I'm in a similar situation as those underwater with AGQ except I'm in SLV May 46 calls (Friday afternoon these were ITM when I bought). I’m looking to sell during the next rally and buy back lower; so I'll be paying attention to your AGQ comments since as far as I know they should equally apply to my situation. SLV tracks silver price closely for the time being to the tune of POS minus $1.15 or so. It's not my intent to day trade and I'll force myself to sit out if necessary to make sure my account doesn't fall subject to pattern day trading rules.

    I'm still working to get familiar with the charts on forexpro; do you use their charts for to watch stock price too?

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  121. @SilverLeaf I'm sure there are smaller dealers pulling stock as you suggest, is APMEX operating like this?

    @atlee I understand you are a trader, an accomplished one from the sound of it.
    I respect that and listen to you & learn more about the market mechanics doing so.
    That doesn't mean that the only angle of attack is trading. Physical investment demand is on the rise & is an important player in this war.
    Snear at it all you like, when dollars are only good for wiping our nether regions and the $ based market collapses, physical PM holders won't be the ones begging in the streets.

    ReplyDelete
  122. ben13,
    please excuse the redundant "Or," in the second to last sentence.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Hey uncle Ben, Can ya chill out on the bin laden posts?

    ReplyDelete
  124. all factual, reasoned posts, CD. Yes, I am a silver skeptic. Never hid that.

    ReplyDelete
  125. GATA's Adrian Douglas raises a great point tonight: can you imagine the big buyers for crushed down silver? It only just sets up the next round. And a very possible Comex default.

    Somewhere a Russian Billionaire smiles, biding his time. Like a Chess Master, he's planning 5 moves ahead while waiting ever so patiently to mobilize...

    And time is on his side-ski.

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  126. Ho Hum Yukon...ho hum...silver is being bought and hoarded by China and Russia and and and and for the same definition you and I have both used... nobody disputes the figures...however there is presently not enough of the strategic metal known as SILVER to go around and you, indeed you, accept silver as strategic...enough said, if you want to continually debate definitions then I suggest you gurggle" it...I'm going to enjoy what's left of my day...no anger intended...

    ReplyDelete
  127. Markus,

    Yes silver is all the things you've written except for one. It is NOT currently considered a monetary metal by central banks and countries all over the world. It has been in the past, yes, but it is NOT currently. It may be in the future, you and I and/or anyone here really have a clue if it will be or not. Though, it likely wont be since we already have gold for that(already held by banks and countries) and as you said, gold has no other real use. That fact alone makes it the best choice as a store of wealth. Silver is best suited as a commodity...just like we're using it. I'm not saying it's a bad investment, it just is what it is.

    Of course it has unique properties that cannot be replaced in certain applications. The point is that it can be recycled and it will be when it becomes economical to do so...as in right now due to its current price. Yes, and the fact that the very small amount of silver that's used in applications where the metal is consumed, as in... can't be recycled, makes the whole "shortage" argument almost irrelevant. There's plenty of silver when you can stretch it and we use up only small amounts that can't be reused/recycled.

    Stockpiles have been reduced due to it not being economically feasible to recycle it. It now will be...

    You can call what I say disinformation or not, makes no difference to me, but you might be seeing the wrong part of the picture. Higher prices open up new angles that need to be considered.

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  128. as an observation...
    understanding that people were placed under large amount of stress during the market BS last night. Though It was concerning to see how short people's fuse had become, near infighting on here.
    BUT TODAY! Today is one that demonstrates the strength and ability of a blog site like this, to folks reorganize after such a raid. Wonderful display of support and guidance for those who are smart enough to seek it!
    THUMBS UP!!!

    ReplyDelete
  129. @Brian -- {Sigh} Irritating though your condescension to views contrary to yours may be, the skepticism itself is actually not a bad thing. Your presence & arguments could add to the conversation; I would only encourage you to use more of your reason and less of your bias. And to keep YOUR mind open to contrary events/evidence, like you exhort others to do, and the lack of which you decry in forums like Turd's blog or ZH.

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  130. ben.roberts13,

    If you've finished with the Osama stuff, could you take a look at my question to you, above (2 parts). As you seem to be prolific today and recently, perhaps you could also explain these comments of yours:

    "Silver must be suppressed at all cost. Silver is king and will rule. Silver, not Gold is their number one enemy, but it will destroy them. Mark my words !!!!"

    If silver must be suppressed at all cost, what is stopping the TPTB from keeping its price down for 10 or 20 years? (I think you said you were more than 60 years old, so maybe you never see $100 silver in your lifetime).

    The Fed has a printing press, so the losses run up by Fed proxy banks are irrelevant. Sure, low prices will lead to excessive industrial demand and we will run out of silver some day, but do TPTB care about that?

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  131. bet your arse that the day will come {and it isn't that far away} when TRADING IN ALL COMMODITIES WILL BE NON-MARGINABLE. When this is announced, know that their gun is empty, and all they have left to do is bluff.

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  132. i do not have the slightest doubt that silver will by default be recognized and used again as money,, in circulation and to make daily purchases. I have all of my money where my mouth is. I have been right for over 30 years so much has happened to confirm by earlier suspicions and conjectures which are now mostly fact.

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  133. I thought a lot about what Trinny B had said in the first couple of comments on this blog... And I couldn't work it out... Then "F" said something by way of quoting from Godfather III... And then the pieces came together... The mastermind... It had to be someone who could ensure the S would HTF when we were at our most vulnerable... Who could it be? Who could leave us floored by a $5 drop inside 3 minutes, and at the same time ensure we would have no guidance from our leader... I can reveal the murderer of the silver market...

    It was Mrs Ferguson with the Birthday Cake Candles in the Bedroom.

    I only pray Turd gets out alive tonight.

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  134. Can one of you very wise and seasoned traders let me know when the Chinese market opens? is it open now? I am just trying to find out if they are going to buy the dip or not.

    Can please someone answer this simple question? Trying to use google to find market times is a nightmare.

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  135. Timpa,

    You misunderstood the tenor of my last post. Let me be clear this time.

    Silver is *not* a strategic metal. Anyone that claims such is mistaken.

    There *is* enough silver to go around. Anyone that claims there isn't is mistaken.

    Enjoy the rest of your day. :)

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  136. i am hoping the Turd will read the evidence that the bin ladin death is a complet hoax. He thinks it was real,,,, he needs to know the truth

    ReplyDelete
  137. from Harvey's Organ: It looks like physical gold and silver have disappeared off the planet and this is causing nightmares to our bankers. They are using every trick in the book.
    I urge you to stay away from comex. Buy physical gold and physical silver only. This kills our bankers.
    Got to go now
    all the best
    Harvey

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  138. Due to alot of work I havent had time to trade today, still sitting in AGQ from friday but Im positive it will come back eventually.
    BUT right on the clock we see the trolls come out of their hiding exactly when silver corrects. We havent seen them since last correction, hmm, wonder where they went.
    Now we are only missing The Hamster to complete the collection.
    They are good at stirring things up and planting fear and doubt in many new and young traders. Especially when they have a supposedly "intelligent" discussion with other names that only show up at the same time....

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  139. Silver is so critical for the monetary system that the powers that be will do anything to keep its true price from being discovered. This weekend is proof of that fact.

    ReplyDelete
  140. I don't see much silver used in industrial applications getting recycled, its too expensive. Fun fundo of the day, did you know there is silver in every computer keyboard? Actual amount is much less than a gram, but its in there, and to remove it you need $100+ worth of chemicals and a lot of free time. Uses like that are why the silver supply has been used up and why most of it will never be recycled. Even if spot goes to $1000 an ounce, its still not cost effective to 'mine' the local dump. Silver is going extinct, and we are watching it happen in slow motion. Not to be one to post things without a link to back it up here is a guy who actually did extract the silver in his keyboard:
    http://www.x24kgold.com/2011/02/how-to-refine-silver-from-keyboard.html
    If you read it you will hopefully understand why most of the silver in the world will NEVER be recycled.
    Verification word: bursts

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  141. the comsex idiots i imagine donno that buy lowering prices people can afford more physical silver and this will create more shortage and then one day those idiots (comsex) have to default

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  142. AGQ holders

    Just a thought, if you are really freaked about your positions, AGQ options have monster premiums. If you're willing to trade some potential upside and want to hold them for the long term, consider writing covered calls against your agq shares. Do it short term (< 2 weeks to expiration), and you can chip away at your losses. If AGQ continues to fall, after expiration, just write another covered call against it. For example, the May 340's (I think I heard $326 as someone's basis) will net you about $17 in premium, meaning you're selling at $357. If AGQ doesn't get to 340 by May 21, you're now in at $309 instead. Just saying, it took me awhile, but I was able to reduce my cost basis to $0 on a few stocks selling covered calls.

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  143. there may be enough silver to go around for those who are willing to pay an ever increasing price, but there is not enough around for it to ever get to 5 dollars again,, not ever,, now how !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  144. ben.roberts13,

    you said;
    "Silver is so critical for the monetary system that the powers that be will do anything to keep its true price from being discovered"

    They have the power and they can do anything. They can therefore keep its true price from being discovered, ever, right?

    ReplyDelete
  145. H#1

    Many thanks for that great laugh. I appreciate it.

    word verify: snitisms. If it said "shitisms" I would have spit up my beverage . . .

    ReplyDelete
  146. ok CD, fair enough. I understand that it has been my tone that has been bothering people the most here and I will work on that. I can open my mind, as long as others here do the same.

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  147. No they can't,, they are in big trouble and soon will be overwhelmed and destroyed, in this I have no doubt

    ReplyDelete
  148. @waffen

    It's open, see Hong Kong on this chart:
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

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  149. Come on Asians...push it above $45...!

    ReplyDelete
  150. http://dont-tread-on.me/banksters-covered-26-million-oz-short-position-last-monday/

    The CFTC released it’s commitment of traders report for the last Monday’s Silver Smack Down. And it shows the big guys used the raid to cover -5,209 short contracts (each contract is 5,000 oz. of silver) which is a little more than 26 million ounces of short silver. I wonder how much they covered with a much larger raid last night? This is a huge development. As soon as these guys either cover their shorts or they fail to deliver the physical metal it will be game over. (Remember we have less than 38 million ounces in the registered inventory of the CRIMEX. World wide silver production is 735 million ounces and the banks are still short 258 million ounces or 51,644 contracts. They have a long way to go.)

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  151. Surely some COMEX silver margin level not too far above the present 30% would motivate major investors to decide 'screw this, why don't I just go straight to buying physical?'
    It's a bit like interest rates - once you get down to zero there's no more room for manipulation, and that mechanism can no longer be used to control the system.
    The COMEX control of silver spot price will fail if the COMEX defaults on delivery. Won't it also fail if they hike the margin much more?

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  152. Yukon Cornyknees for what it's worth and this can be factually backed up, now what can you back up? Ah, but "definitely not strategic...right?:

    Silver is a VERY IMPORTANT metal.

    Consider these facts:

    (1) Silver has properties not matched by other metals.
    (2) Silver is necessary for the manufacturing of many items
    (3) Silver is used HEAVILY in the defense industry
    (4) Silver supplies above ground are a fraction of 50 years ago

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  153. there is more gold than silver above ground and the price suppression for the last thirty years has caused it to be used up faster than it would have been,, had there been no suppression. Now it is more scarce above ground than gold. and is extremely under-priced as a result.

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  154. Apparently the Chinese are not so keen on Bennie Bucks? Silver is going to put me in my grave with the volatility.

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  155. @smarsack61... and FOAGQ

    I've hung on to my AGQ position when I should have sold around 49 on Friday going into the weekend.

    That said, I'm still in and I started writing covered calls this morning as well instead of selling the AGQ.

    I still have about 25% powder dry, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

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  156. TerraHertz - Margins are $16,200 per 5,000 oz contract i.e. about 7.2% of contract size.

    Margins needed to go up in silver. They may still be too low. Look at the average fluctuation in silver now vs 1 year ago, when silver was approx $20/oz. Gold is actually less volatile that it was 1 year ago.

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  157. Silver will indeed be part of the monetary system, not due to some decree by a paid federal government retard but by the states. It's already happening...

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/29/news/economy/utah_gold_currency/index.htm

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  158. Check this out on the USD. You know what it means for PMs.

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/05/03/the-u-s-dollar-on-the-edge-of-a-great-cliff-within-a-hair-of-all-time-low/

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  159. Silver FINALLY made it near the top of the list in the Google Business Headlines! LOL!

    "Silver struggles again after futures market raises margin requirements "

    I won't even leave a link. F*cking hilarious.

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  160. @ catsey
    I do not sneer at silver. Usually my hands are securely wrapped around 2 ASE's and 1 1oz gold american eagle. They help me concentrate. So you are preaching to the choir. The easiest audience.

    @ johnboatcat
    Thanks and yes I still own my core AGQ. I still have a few more months before I can cash out my SEP/IRA without penalty. Do you think paper silver will last that much longer?

    @stephen
    for stocks go here
    http://www.freestockcharts.com/
    set it up the same way b bands and slow stoch.

    GLTA Lets get silver over 46 tonight. Come Joe its up to you bro.

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  161. meant I do nt sneer at physical. I am tired.

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  162. Amazing!Just freaking amazing!

    3 margin hikes , a 10% recovered drop from last week . a monster drop on Monday, and after all that,were now sitting on $45 silver.

    If that's not an indicator of strength I dont know what is.

    Im actually shocked after those brutal attacks .

    I agree with Turd , they are getting desperate,
    Im thinking that there isn't enough, or barely enough silver to cover for another month

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  163. I got a question,

    Im assumeing that these margin hikes do not affect the Asian/European markets is that correct?

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  164. whether or not silver is monetized, the bi-metallic standard has a 5000 year precedent. From the way things are going, I think it will be too valuable to use as money like platinum is now. Its downfall as a monetary unit is really its usefulness in industrial applications. Thats why gold is so great as money, its otherwise pretty much useless.

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  165. i think the chinese are pushing up up

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  166. Silverbleve,

    Wow, you need to do a little reading. I hope people here don't listen to what you say without checking your "facts" for themselves.

    Read this..

    http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf

    It's from over 10 years ago. You don't need $100 in chemicals... you need an incinerator. These recyclers are not recycling 4 keyboards and a cell phone. They're doing thousands of TONS of different materials, and they were doing it in the year 2000...what was the price of silver in the year 2000? What is it today? Are you sure they're NEVER gonna recycle it? Give me a fuckin' break, dude. Your lame attempts at disputing real facts are...well, just lame:)

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  167. @F curious about that too. tpboc is the equivalent of our federal reserve in China, the main difference is they actually want their citizens to buy and own PM's.

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  168. F

    They affect anyone who holds futures (i.e. COMEX) regardless of domicile. They are the minimum margin ... as has been widely reported, ToS and MF are requiring substantially more.

    They do not affect physical transactions, which are settled in cash.

    WE

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  169. We're buying now. If the cartel can take silver below $40, great, we'll buy more.

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  170. @ atlee -- thanks for your thoughts. I particularly enjoy Jesse's quotes of the day. Today:
    "CAN YOU CATCH LEVIATHAN ON A FISHHOOK, OR TIE IT DOWN WITH A ROPE? CAN YOU PUT A CORD THROUGH ITS NOSE, OR A HOOK IN ITS JAW? ... IF YOU PUT YOUR HAND ON IT, YOU WILL NEVER FORGET THAT BATTLE. AND YOU WILL NEVER DO IT AGAIN. THERE IS NO HOPE OF SUBDUING IT; JUST SEEING IT MOVE IS OVERWHELMING." JOB 41:1-9

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  171. @ CD. Good Call! I love that movie.

    I see cabelas is having a copper sale this weekend. Copper of the .22, .223, .270, .30-06 and .308 kind.

    I wonder why kind of looks I will get this time I go in and drop a couple grand on my other favorite metal ? Geez its like stacking silver and gold....when is enough, enough?

    A few things in life you can never have too much of.

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  172. CEF arbitrage and a funny story.


    I've looked at CEF thinking the Sprott funds premium a bit high. I've chosen not to go that route because CEF has no redemption mechanism.

    I believe that a few years ago CEF traded at a -30% premium. Without some method to arbitrage the holdings in the CEF vault is just a pile of metal, you can not participate in the silver or gold market because once it's in the CEF vault it just disappears from the world.

    If PSLV or PHYS ever traded at a significant negative premium to spot investors would use the redemption feature to arbitrage that difference away.

    I think that too many people loose sight of the importance of arbitrage to a properly functioning market. When arbitrage is not a possibility then valuations are isolated and can be significantly skewed.


    Funny story..
    In 1985-6 the world seemed to move more slowly,
    you often got your stock prices from the paper.

    I was just starting to learn options and I started paper trading options using the closing prices in the WSJ. I entered all the closing price data into my (apple IIe) computer program and ran the code that looked for option sets that were off. I paper traded this for 2 months and turned 10K of paper into 5M of paper. I was sure I was going to be rich....

    The only problem is that you can't actually buy the options for the prices published in the paper. Thinly traded options may have a closing price that happened when the market first opened and the market moved on and
    at the close this price was not really available.

    I learned this by spending a significant portion of my disposable income for a "signal" receiver, and a real time data feed from the options market. My program then used live bid and ask data to try and run my winning system.... alas it did not work.

    I'd never had any formal schooling in investments or options alas I should have known better. I now know that what figured out for my self was something called box arbitrage.

    There is no magic system that always beats the market. If someone figures out such a system they will run it until all the possible profit is arbitraged away.

    One can however jump on longer term fundamental trends and ride those.

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  173. To all:

    The syntax for hyperlinking is very simple:

    {a href="http://yourlink.com"}YOUR LINK TITLE{/a}

    Simply replace all "{" with "<" and all "}" with ">"

    Hyperlinks are a lot easier for smartphones/tablets. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  174. Like being discussed before, banging the globeX on thin volume like that sucker punch on Sunday is a sign of weakness rather than EE's confidence in controlling the suppression game. So don't lose your heart.

    On the other hand it does reveal the concerns there might be too many small-pocket price chasers on the long side that are vulnerable to EE's ambush. I tend to think margin should be as high as, say, 50%, to begin with so big pocket strong hands are in the market at the long side. As fraudulent as this raid is it does help strengthen the market structure for the next move.

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  175. atlee
    freestockcharts is what I already use to watch SLV. I don't think they offer a slow stochastics there; have you modified their stochastics default values?

    ReplyDelete
  176. SleepingVillage:

    Which parts of that article do you think support your point? First off, they don't discuss keyboards specifically so you haven't refuted Silverbleve's point. Secondly, the article acknowledges that some electronics were too costly to recycle. It would seem reasonable to assume that additional recycling will become feasible as silver prices rise, but you haven't addressed Silverbleve's point that some items will remain too costly to do so with.

    The article doesn't seem to add a lot to this discussion, in that it only addresses items that were being recycled back in 2000. Anything being recycled back then is surely still being recycled now, so it is already priced in. A more relevant article would be a list of items that would be cost-efficient for recycling with silver at $50/oz, or $75/oz.

    Again, I agree with your point that additional items may become economically viable for recycling but you have yet to give any real evidence for how large this impact will be.

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  177. @/SleepingVillage/ ok so you can do it without chemicals, how much do you think an incinerator costs to buy and run? Keyboards are easy, I just used that as an example because everyone here is sitting in front of one. Let me see you try to get the silver out of a pair of polyester pants and we can talk. Ok I'll admit at SOME point it becomes cost effective, sure at a million dollars an ounce it might start to happen.
    "Never", well I admit that is a strong word, instead of never I should have said not in our lifetime, or not for several generations, if ever.

    Also, in reference to the article you posted, I like it there is a lot of info in there. One thing that sticks out at me is the categories of sources for recyclable silver, the biggest category by far being labeled 'other' and other being defined as 'catalysts, electroplated wares, coins and medallions, dental and medical, and bearings'
    Those are of course the easiest things to recycle, it much less expensive to just melt the silver out of a tooth than , say an old photograph.

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  178. @atlee: am trying buddy! I got burnt a bit in the earlier drop in Asia, so I am licking my wounds and assessing the situation carefully.

    Rest assured, this tiger ain't gonna take a beating lying down.

    Eye of the tiger baby.
    Eye of the tiger.

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  179. Tim,

    He said that "most of the silver in the world will NEVER be recycled" I showed him that most of it already is:) They reuse components that can be salvaged and they incinerate tons of the rest and then extract the various metals. Not too complex and it's certainly a viable business, and will be even more so in the future at $50 + silver.

    Silver will possibly become extinct one day, but it wont be in any of our lifetimes unless it magically disappears some how. Everyone needs to consider these things instead of thinking "oh my god! the silver is all gone!" There's plenty left. You and some others might think I'm an asshole, but I hope there's at least one person out there reading this that takes a look at facts instead of hype, and maybe contemplates a different future than what they might currently have in mind.

    Silverbleve,

    You have to remember that when you go big, as in tons of recyclables, it cuts your bottom line and makes it more economical. I just wanted you to see something a little differently. We can all learn something from each other if we allow ourselves. Thanks for the honest response.

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  180. Who knows what storms await on the London open!?

    They've been on the sidelines for one day watching this shite happen.

    History shows that the city traders capitulate easily, so it more likely than not that they will surrender entirely this +80c we've put up on the board.

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  181. @ stephen.
    Yes and yes I have altered them to what you get on forex. On stocks The ma in the bb i use 18 instead of 16

    @CD
    Jesse is probably the smartest guy on tne net when it comes to this addicition that we share.

    Margin hikes.
    They are aimed at the commoners me and you. Their mistake is that we are not the BOS that is killing their game. So the test is if this mkt holds and extends its gains this evening, currently up $1.40, then I guess we know the BOS is Asian (chinese). And then all this beatdown we just went through was really just a big BTFD and nothing more. And Ben.roberts13 is absolutely right. I am going to watch letterman and then to bed thinking I am looking for china to prove something to me tonight.

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  182. Wierd stuff.....
    Was just refreshing my kitco 3day silver chart and the price went from 45.17 to 44.19 and back to 45.22 in like seconds....then the chart showed a thin line shooting down like a needle.
    Dont know what to think of it except the paper game may be giving up the ghost & causing craziness before it is still and dead. (hopefully by July)

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  183. atlee - "Do you think paper silver will last that much longer?"

    I think so. It will take until 2012-13 I think to play out. They have a lot of tricks to play yet, so they can keep it going for a while. Major black swans could change that time line. Lot of reasons on both sides to keep it smooth through the election.

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  184. did you all get the shipment from GPR, was it delivered thru UPS?

    ReplyDelete
  185. A HEALTHIER YOU

    Part 1

    I am writing to share with you my experiences with natural health remedies that may help you get through a period of time where medical attention may be scarce. It is unfortunate to say that most people reading this will not implement these life changes that are essential because of the difficulty in implementing a life change, especially among Americans, is not something people want to do. The psyche of most people is just give me a pill or two that can help me get better or protect me. THERE IS NO MAGIC PILL. Having said all that, I would now like to share my experiences and suggestions without apology.

    I must at this point give you a little history of myself to help you understand how and why I got to where I am. From a very young age I fell in love with sports and played various one’s year round. As you can imagine I continued to play sports well into adulthood. At 38 years of age (1990) I was experiencing increasing stiffness and pain in my knees and feet. I had my suspicions of the affliction but off to the doctor I went to make sure my interpretation was correct. Diagnosis … arthritis … suggested prescribed treatment … drugs, more drugs, more powerful drugs ultimately leading to joint replacement. I declined at that time and set off to find a natural way to handle my affliction.

    I read countless books on nutrition and wound up with a huge library of nutrition books. My head was swimming with information on vitamins and minerals and various other concoctions. From 1990 to 1992 I spent a boat load of money on many different brands of vitamins with little if any relief. By 1992 the pain was so intense that I was brought to tears and was ready to go back to the doctor get the drugs and be done with it. Mercy came my way and I found a new company called USANA. These vitamins worked and the pain greatly diminished. I took those vitamins religiously from 1992 to 2007.

    I realized in 2007 that there was a great possibility in the future vitamins and other health remedies I was employing would not be available. I studied wheatgrass and do believe it is a good product but it would be something, for the most part, that you will need to stock up on. I tried growing it with little success. This does not mean it can’t be done, it can, it’s just that it’s very problematic and needs to be grown in controlled conditions. At least that was my experience. I was trying to find remedies that can support people in the worst conditions so in my book wheatgrass doesn’t fit the bill as a main component.

    I am an avid bible reader and believer and the thought kept rolling around inside me to look into fasting. The bible has much to say about fasting and a statement that has stood out to me in the past is “your health shall spring forth speedily” which kept coming to mind. Again, I bought all the books I could get my hands on. I gained insight into the subject but was unhappy with the quality of the information until I found a book that I am going to recommend which led to another book which I will also recommend.

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  186. @Titus. Yeah...but possibly in 3 hours blondie's gonna open the door and an Englishman is gonna say "BOO"!

    LOL

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  187. /SleepingVillage/,

    That was a worthwhile commentary, as opposed to your first.

    Regarding your first point, I don't immediately have a source for this but as far as I am informed, silver has been money about as long as gold. I assume, since previously were willing to use silver as money or inflation hedge, they will be able to do so again - no matter what their government does. Governments though not even consider gold as money right now. What is just as relevant, or more relevant even, is that we citizens do. Also I'd like to point out that the Chinese government is different in that it does actually promote silver buying by its people. If you know general economics you'll probably understand the significance, since I think pretty much everyone agrees right now that China will be the next big economic power of the world. Also factor in that their middle class is only growing right now (thus their buying power), but their PM demand is already HUGE (a few thousand tons of net silver exports a few years ago, now a few thousand tons net imports).

    Regarding supply, at current rate of use we have about 20 years of mining production left (source USGS, and others confirm this). Mining supply might increase because demand is also projected to rise, which will only drain supplies faster. Right now about 10% of silver is recycled. Even if we boost that to 30%, which is unlikely for quite some time, that still doesn't get us much further, with ever increasing demand (especially from alternative energy and the new mobile computers and/or computer/phone combinations).

    Regarding "There's plenty of silver when you can stretch it and we use up only small amounts that can't be reused/recycled.", please be more specific, as I currently can't think of any application from which it can be easily recovered.. certainly not from medicinal uses and clothing, but probably also not from electronics.

    Good that you think silver is a good investment, but I think it's a much better investment than you currently can comprehend.

    Yes higher prices open up new possibilities.. but not 50$, not by a long shot.

    ReplyDelete
  188. Anyone remember when a $1.30 pop in silver was big news?

    Chump change now.

    ReplyDelete
  189. i actually appreciate some of the contrarian opinions on here. lord knows im no turd, but checking out even the last 60 days of spot closing for silver, it seems that 44 is probably very much where it should be trading right now. if you took a ruler and sharpie and connected the lows including today i dont think 44 breaches it.

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag0060lnb.html

    doesnt mean we cant head lower i suppose but im not officially worried of a bubble popping down to 20s quite yet

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  190. @Fortinbras

    Yes, AGQ is a very large, untasty wad of relic status gerbil dung at the close.

    I saw the FUTF Sunday, then the following FUBM. I didn't expect today's FUTF to keep going... Shoulda wrote the covered calls against AGQ when it had rallied to .70 down...

    If Turd is right we are entering the rinse/repeat phase for then next couple of weeks.

    I've gotten used to the volatility and it doesn't stress me out that bad. I know the fundamentals mean it's going up!

    Since i work for a living i'm going to try to catch the beginning of a raid and then sell covered calls against the AGQ. Watch for the known support levels and buy them back.

    Does counter party risk concern you yet?

    I hope no one is giving up, if you have a loss stick it out for a day or two. Odds are it will rally to at least cut your loss. Long term silver is going up!

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  191. @Will kitco seems buggy a lot of the time, I don't know why my local coin dealer loves it so much. Here is one I found that I like:
    http://www.futurespros.com/metals/silver-advanced-chart
    (testing the hyperlink code here so bear with me if it comes out crap...)
    {a href="http://www.futurespros.com/metals/silver-advanced-chart"}Boom!{/a}

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  192. @atlee

    yes, Jesse is wise.

    i'm trying to let his trading philosophy soak in along with Turd's.

    Jesse: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

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