First, I must say that I couldn't be more excited about the action yesterday, particularly silver. Just absolutely beautiful. And did you see crude? Holy cow! We should all be excited for Monday, that's for sure.
OK, here are two charts for you to peruse. First, the CRB eeked out a positive close on the back of strong grains and crude. Again, this was the second highest weekly close ever.
Now look at the weekly POSX. Still below all of its moving averages and looks terrible, in spite of all the posing and posturing by the various Fed hacks/weasels/thugs/goons. They'll certainly try to double-bottom it at 75.25 if they get the chance. Will it work? Who know? Who cares? The long-term trend is DOWN, as we discussed yesterday: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-picture-whats-really-going-on.html
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/04/causes-of-mess-were-in.html
More later this evening or tomorrow. Thanks! TF
Another great post as always TF
ReplyDelete@ Yukon, code, hang 10 & Xty
Thanks! Your posts covered most, if not all of what I was looking for and it conveniently fit in with my current plan. Guess I am on the right track.
Current plan is to stay with PM's + stay very liquid so that I can easily pull the trigger on land should prices come down.
Lets keep talking about tinka. That stock has my attention.
@kitotei
I think you may be SOL on the gasoline front. If you really want to prepare for a world with limited gasoline availability then the city is probably not your friend (especially true if you still have a lengthy commute). IMO I'd try to always keep a relatively full tank + maybe a jerrycan full somewhere in storage. I'd just want enough gasoline to be able to gtfo quickly or to power a generator for a short amount of time during an emergency.
Remember those poor people in Japan waiting hours to fill up the tank? I just want to avoid being one of them should SHTF.
Gasoline doesn't stay too long in storage, although there are some additives that can help to extend useful life and if the gas gets rotated often enough, you can keep a supply on hand for when the SHTF.
ReplyDeleteFor additives, I see many recommending Sta-Bil which may give you up to a year.
http://www.goldeagle.com/brands/stabil/default.aspx
"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth."
ReplyDeleteAlan Blinder
15th Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve
@Ricky: Thanks for the input, even if I am USCWAP (involves sewage and an ore)! :-) I try to keep a full tank too but even that will only get me part of the way to my ultimate bug out destination in Southern Utah. I think I can squeeze a jerrycan into my patio storage BUT it can get over 100 degrees here in the summer months. I'm no scientist but I think that is a bit dangerous.
ReplyDeleteGas prices will be going down as the demand drops due to the Obomba fleet of Chevy Volts and nat. gas trucks coming on-line before 2015. Bwah!
ReplyDelete@SilverIsKing: Wow I didn't know it had such a short shelf-life. thanks for the info. That definitely changes things.
ReplyDeleteReposting this great read since it got trapped on the end of the last thread:
http://www.biorationalinstitute.com/zcontent/alpha_strategy.pdf
The Alpha Strategy
The Ultimate Plan of Financial Self-Defense for the Small Saver and Investor By John A. Pugsley 1980
"Frankly, dear public, you are being robbed. This may be put crudely but at least it is clear."
—Frederic Bastiat
Briefly I have written on this for over two years now. I differ with Gonzo in one important respect.....btw a great article....They will and HAVE planned this completely.....and it will not in in hyperinflation as he predicts....it will end with severe stagflation which we are in now culminating with a deflationary crash over two years ending in 2015.....then the hyperinflation will follow. The deflation will leave all the public and hedges/banks(not on the "know") "BAGHOLDERS"...its been the game for hundreds of years.....
ReplyDeletekiyotei
ReplyDeleteSilverisKing is totally right about the gas. Even with boat or lawnmower gas I don't recommend keeping it over the winter. You could add Sta-Bil, but I don't bother. I just get fresh gas in the spring. Each fall I run all the leftover gas through my beater car.
xty
ReplyDelete"booby trapped hobby farm"
lololol
at least in the city you can walk to a lot of what you need. In the country you are SOL without gas unless you have a horse.
ReplyDeleteProper Gas Storage Tips
ReplyDelete1. Store gasoline in approved clean and dry containers only. Do not fill the container more than 95% full. Tightly seal the container.
2. Store gasoline in a cool location under 80 F.
3. Store gasoline out of direct sunlight.
4. Add BHT or Stabil fuel stabilizer in double dose.
5. Reformulated gasoline will keep for 2-3 years when properly stored.
6. Regular gasoline will keep for 1-2 years when properly stored.
7. At the far end of the storage period you may need to filter the gas through severl coffee filters to remove gum and sediment.
kliguy,
ReplyDeleteInterested in more about what you said:
"it will end with severe stagflation which we are in now culminating with a deflationary crash over two years ending in 2015.....then the hyperinflation will follow"
I am in the hyperinflation camp of what I see coming and see the signs of it beginning all around us ...not the least of which QE programs are indicative of. I just don't understand the 'deflationary crash' that you mention. Wouldn't that mean that prices of commodities in general would be unrealistically devalued/undervalued? I can't see how this would happen ?? The way I see it TPTB keep on printing, the debt keeps rising, cost of goods/commodities keep on climbing, the dollar keeps on plummeting, the middle class and working poor keep on suffocating, the inflation kicks in to hyperdrive. What's to save us from this scenario....although I'm sure I put it in a way too simplistic way here. I apprecaite any of your thoughts on the subject.
Question for all you options traders ...I have ventured out into optionsland with an extremely small bet on SLV calls. I also want to place some OTM oil/gas calls with timeframes of late year/early next year but haven't yet as I'm going to wait on the next dip. My question though centers on that SLV call. ..I placed my call when SLV was $36.63 ..which was just early last week. Friday's close was $36.86 and yet my call is down. I am playing with money that I can lose (dubbed my 'learning' money)..but of course I'd rather not lose it. So, I want to learn from you experts. ..Why would SLV shares be worth more than they were when I bought my options and yet I am slightly under water with the calls? The contracts are May11 and I apologize if this is a 'boy isn't she too stupid to be trading options' question. ..But, I figure if I don't ask.. I won't ever know. So thanks in advance.
@kliguy38:
ReplyDeletehis (GZ) scenario is basically:
...treasury run -> rates rise -> even more treasuries sell off -> even more rate rises and at this moment the cycle begins and you have to print yourself out of the trouble, so instead of removing it, you fuel it further.
Gross' moves fit perfectly here. And even though Fed is saying it'll end QE, in fact they will never end it because of the size of its balance sheet.
In your opinion we'll experience deflation/stagflation sooner than later, and THEN hyperinflation. Does it mean that I should wait with loading up on physical PM? In deflationary scenario gold spot could easily correct to, say, 1100, before going to several thousands.
Cheers!
Pablo: Thanks. Great checklist. I believe the only one needed is "Store in a ventilated area & don't huff the fumes!"
ReplyDeleteYou are now my designated goto HAZMAT guy :-)
Some folks were asking about Tinka. This is actually a pretty straight forward story here. I'm going to keep this short because I'm trying to work on my Naked Silver Saturday - American Silver Eagles post.
ReplyDeleteThey have ~20Moz AG inferred at Colquipucro with another possible 2M tonnes of mineralization at the same expected average AG grade of 111.4. They also have further extensive drilling programs in play which you can read about. But basically just take what you know from the 43-101 and look at the market cap. This was a ridiculously undervalued miner at the beginning of the year. Ridiculously!
I've had my shares and I'm still holding onto them. Is it still a buy now? Not for me, as I have what I want at a great price. What should you do? Do your own dd and crack open a 43-101 to draw your own conclusions.
Personally, I'm looking for a nice bo/to offer to materialize within the next two years. Here's a link to someone who talks about Tinka which I agree with:
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/03/chart-of-day-tinka-resources-ltd-breaks.html
Yukon
Well I just wanted to share another note from the trenches with regard to buying 90% silver from private sellers.
ReplyDeleteThis week I bought 35 Silver Dollars & 17 Walking Liberty Halves from someone on Craigslist. Didn’t get as good a deal as I did on the 22 Silver Dollars that I bought last weekend for $25/ea; this time I paid the spot price of the silver content in the coins. Still, paid $125 less than the original asking price.
In talking with the seller, he told me he pulled his ad after a few hours due to the overwhelming response he’d received. So this means that there is a LOT of demand for 90% silver! Of course he settled on the first full-price offer, but that deal fell through when the buyer asked him to wait for a week. (Lesson – buy only if you have cash-in-hand!) We met at a bank – I just told one of the workers that I banked there, and that we were conducting a private transaction with the Silver. No problem – she walked us over to an empty desk and left us alone.
There is plenty of sleaze out there. Always conduct yourself with honesty & integrity, and this is probably why I ended up with that jingling bagful of coins and not somebody else.
In my initial email I broke down the Silver value of the coins in order to back up my offer. And sitting there at the bank's desk looking over those luscious coins, I asked the seller, “Are you SURE that you want to part with these? Silver will probably continue to increase in price, and you may regret selling your coins.” Well evidently the guy needed the money. When he’d told me he had already met some potential buyers at his house, I advised him to NEVER let anybody know where he lives, because you never know what kind of person you are dealing with.
Here are excerpts from an email the seller sent me yesterday:
“I have lots of questions, and trust very few people (when it come to money). 3 weeks ago when I first received my grandfather’s collection, I talked to a "church" friend. He said he was collecting quarters and made what he said was a great deal for them.
Now, the $500 looks like about "half" of what I could of got for them (maybe more). I know you are not an expert, and learning more as I am, but feel you are not out to screw someone.”
Didn't know what he had. Got ripped off by a church-'friend.' Don’t be like that – you do not need to lie and cheat to secure your finances – be somebody who other folks will respect.
-Mammoth
I wish i had a tee time.
ReplyDelete@Ginger,
ReplyDeleteSLV options can be higher if the volatility is higher. New highs can generate volatility as well as a sudden dip. You will notice that the deep in the money options have little volatility factored in, while out of the money options do. There are some Greek letters (beta, theta, etc) that measure this volatility, which is important to note when buying options.
If you are new to options, I might suggest bull spreads on SLV. An example would be to buy Oct11 40 calls at $2.67 and sell the same number of Oct11 41 calls at $2.34. That way if SLV dips, you can buy back the 41's at a profit (if you want to take the risk), sell them again when the price rebounds, or do nothing until the price of SLV is over 41. If SLV is 41 or over by October each $.33 spread would be worth close to $1.
There are other more complex strategies, but in a bull market such as silver, this is an easy one to use.
Piano, that was quite a read you referenced on the French inflation in the 1790's. A lot of info on the suffering it created. The following is the most interesting part to me....
ReplyDelete"For this general distress arising from the development and collapse of
"fiat" money in France, there was, indeed, one exception. In Paris and
a few of the other great cities, men like Tallien, of the heartless,
debauched, luxurious, speculator, contractor and stock-gambler class,
had risen above the ruins of the multitudes of smaller fortunes.
Tallien, one of the worst demagogue "reformers," and a certain number
of men like him, had been skillful enough to become millionaires, while
their dupes, who had clamored for issues of paper money, had become paupers."
Useless art of the day:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/61306571@N05/5582244209
@Ginger
ReplyDeleteI agree with Bro. D, A "spread" avoids some of the the problems I describe below.
Options values are calculated by what is called the "Black-Scholes formula." I am not enough of a mathematician to understand it thoroughly, but the gist of it is that the option price is composed of three elements: 1) the underlying value of the stock, 2) the amount of time left until expiration, and 3) the "implied volatility" of the stock--a function of the trading range one could reasonably expect.
Option contracts are like a block of ice getting closer to a fire each day, the fire being expiration day. Their value melts away each day (theta decay), increasing the decline the closer you get to expiration.
Yes, you can trade the right direction and lose money in options. I have done best trying to front-run strong moves in day trading. I take profits before the volatility change eats them away.
I held some calls overnight some time ago and the stock gapped lower in the morning. but my calls made a a bit of money because the volatility increased. Usually, I lose or break even because I'll pick the right direction but the volatility will drop and the profit evaporates. I bought SLW calls the day before hte earnings announcement a few weeks ago. the volatility was high in anticipation of a strong move one way or the other. so the next day, after in move up a dollar, I had a small loss.
The further "out of the money" your options are, the less they move with the stock (delta value). So if you buy some cheap SLV calls, the stock can move a dollar, and you only realize a small profit. It's usually better to buy options closer to the stock price.
I recommend paper trading these for a while until you get a good handle on it. There are better traders than I on this blog. Perhaps they can recommend some good books or websites for options learning and strategies. There are dozens of strategies you can use to trade them and minimize your risk.
Gas storage: I looked into this a while ago and came to the conclusion it was basically a fool's errand. This is one reason my self-reliance plans include propane/natural gas tanks. I remember somebody on this board–Dr. Jerome perhaps?–mentioned getting a 500 gallon gasoline storage tank. Curious how that worked out and what the plan for it is.
ReplyDeleteTinka: As I recall, the feasibility study was done assuming a lower cost of silver ($20?), so the 43-101 is a bit of a lowball.
@ Xaritas,
ReplyDeleteSo far so good on the gas. A truck delivered 500g at only .05 more than the station down the street. The gas was already stabilized, which save a bunch of money. The driver said it's good for a year. I plan to begin using it this summer when the prices rise. I'll have to use it all up by next March. Hopefully I can refill on a dip. If SHTF, this can run my generator for a long time. At worst, I should save a pile of $ on gas by next winter. I am already ahead .30 per gallon. And I hate gas lines...
Brian - me too!
ReplyDeleteRe gasoline - great list indeed. I have to pull the old snob factor, but I spent all my summers at a water access only cottage on Georgian Bay, with propane lights and fridge and stove. My parents were both professors and we were there for almost 4 months straight. Until I was about 16 groceries were delivered by boat, so when I say we were at the cottage all summer, I really mean it, and it was primitive. So gasoline was important - but as I say my parents were professors and not as practical as one might have wished. Somehow I got that gene and learned over time. But we pretty much abused gasoline and motors and somehow survived. But in the city what can you really do? We always have a little container around - my hubby is an engineer and has a thousand projects involving motors of all sizes plus the communal lawn mower and snow blower. I am thinking of getting two 5 gallon plastic gas cans and keeping them in the garage. Rotate the gas through the truck.
Ginger - please keep posting the details of your trading adventure. I am about one month behind you in terms of bravery and would like to use you as a guinea pig. Please ask all questions and know that I have them too.
Yukon - re Tinka - I don't know if you saw the end of the old thread but I have small amount of Tinka - bought it at 52 cents and am in for the long haul. Pretty much all my miners I bought to keep, but am just getting the itch to trade a few. But at .52 and a small stake, my downside is tiny so in for the upside - hoping it is disorderly in a good way.
Bro D.
ReplyDeleteI'm a physical investor only, so far, and your bull spread suggestion sounds perfect for me to get my feet wet.
I went thru the late 70s to 80 run and know we have a lot more to go. I just want to be able to profit on the volatility as I can make no money on the corrections being in physical only.
Please, Bro D and whoever else uses this method, tell me more. This sounds like an ideal vehicle to slowly accumulate miners and an occasional few more ounces.
I have patience and I'm in for the long haul.
Some great new interviews on King World News.
ReplyDeleteJames Turk and the Weekly Metals Wrap (including Trader Dan).
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html
Bro.D & Dr. Jerome,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your help/feedback. Oh Boy.......I am going to get my hiney handed to me on this I've got a feeling. :D .. "/
Well.. I do understand 'the basics'. ..But maybe not as well as I thought I did. I mean.. the the time decay and all of that makes sense to me but obviously, I need a better primer on the volatility issues. I bought May $37 contracts and am mildly concerned with the direction it seems to be going. I was sitting there thinking.. wait.. stock goes up towards $37 and I go down in options values. Something wrong with that picture. Oh I'm such a newb. But everything I've ever accomplished succesfully was done by not being afraid to dive in and give it my all.
So THIS is what Eric meant by knowing his comfort of trading for sleeping peacefully at night. Still.. options intrigue me and I'm willing to learn and take chances.
Thanks both of you..very much for the insigts ..I will study your words.
Love it! The next platoon of turdites leaves basic training and heads into options trading - can't wait to hear how we all do.
ReplyDeletePutting my "learning money" into play next week, as well. Oh boy ...
Xty,
ReplyDeleteYou've got it. I won't be shy about asking ..There are enough kind souls here who will help me (us) with our questions ..even if the questions are of the 'how could you not know that' variety. lol. We might elicit a few eye-rolls behind the scenes.. but that's ok.. I help others when and how I can and am always appreciative of those that don't mind doing the same!
I will let you know how my options are doing. ...Are you trading on a demo account? ..I've been doing that for the past month and have made some good money on REE calls. ........Way too bad it's only virtual money. "/ ..Sure as I put my real money into it.. the volatility monster will probably pick up my scent. "/
magis00,
ReplyDeleteYAY!... Good for you! ...I would love to know how/what you are doing. Maybe if enough of us post about it, the really smart options people here will keep us on the straight and narrow and mentor us.
kiyotei,
ReplyDeleteI bought a '85 mbz 300d converted to run on svo/wvo/bio/diesel in one tank. I use waste soy oil from a taro chip maker.I store soy oil from costco, wshtf I have fuel and cooking oil which is one of the "100 things that disappear first".When planning for "The Long Emergency" you want to have redundancy, as many things as possible should be multiple purpose and usefulness. Veg oil has tripled in the past 5 years and will continue to rise. I bought my mbz on ebay for 5k. When shtf you probably won't want to be on the road or out and about, but after things calm down,having.having fuel may allow you to earn a living as transport service. I think wvo is the best way to go as you are using waste product biodiesel requires energy to produce and chemicals that may not be available.
A hui hou malama pono.
Great options post Dr. J
ReplyDeleteWith all us hard money buffs here, I'm sort of surprised more hasn't been mentioned about the Liberty Dollar case. That story has me wondering, what will the government do in terms of not just choice of a new currency, but also in specifically outlawing certain transactions? In other words, they may not go as far as confiscating your gold and silver, but they can legislate your junk silver trade for set of tools (for example) into a crime, couldn't they?
Peter Schiff's Friday video on counterfeiting and the Liberty Dollar is him at his best
Would they do that?
@Ginger, I'm not an expert myself but I think the call contract price generally will be higher when the contract has more time to expire since this reflects a greater likelihood of your contract expiring in the money. So in your case, as you get closer to expiration, the value of your option drops, offsetting the rise in the underlying instrument (SLV).
ReplyDelete@Scott,
Thanks for the equally lengthy and extremely thoughtful response in the previous thread. I don't know if you've ever heard of the book or theory, but you should check out "GENERATIONS" and/or "THE FOURTH TURNING" by Strauss and Howe. I mention this b/c, as members of the same Millenial Generation, I think our outlook and roles are a bit different from some of the older generations here. According to theory in the book, us Millenials are supposedly of the HEROIC Archetype in the same mold of the last Greatest Generation circa WWII.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generations_%28book%29
The takeaway from the taxi driver was a good ending but unfortunately, people like the taxi driver will be subject to the whims of TPTB despite being good at heart.
Anyway, glad to know other young people such as yourself are well aware of what's going on. In my daily life, I tend to experience feelings of alienation and isolation being the only person I know (let alone young person) remotely concerned about inflation. Sometimes I look at friends and peers and can't help but feel serious doubt about our ability to overcome the many obstacles facing us in the near future.
In light of all this, should we try to lead or leave? Hehe, I know of some really nice places to lay low in Thailand or Costa Rica. Staying around in the suburbs just seems a bit like leaving yourself at the mercy of the "System." And I don't have the benefit of knowing a community of survivalists w/ farmland like some of the other posters here.
@osb-vet,
ReplyDeleteDr. Jerome said it best about looking online for options strategies. I would suggest not getting too cute with complex strategies and always keep some cash on hand to take advantage of volatility.
You mentioned the miners. Many of those options are more thinly traded than SLV, so I would suggest a "limit" (a set price) on your bid. The buy-sell spread can be >.25, so to buy at "market" price might put you at a $25 loss (not to mention the commission).
I need to get to a better keyboard; I'm at a notebook and can barely see... ;-)
ReplyDeleteBut I heard tell that 1/2 billion in fake T-bonds were recovered (or busted?) in Italy right after close of markets Friday. Probably totally irrelevant for the faith in our monetary system, right? And hardly a peep anywhere in the SOFCOM about Bernard von NotHaus and his un-freakin-believable conviction in S.C. last week. There's an appeals page for him on Facebook, and more. And Peter Schiff did a radio show and video on this amazing case. Had it been discussed here?
Curious as to what becomes of Norfed's metals? Me too. Because if our government is going to steal in my name, I want to know who gets the booty. Can we watch if it's repatriated to Ft. Knox, for instance... ;-)
OPTIONS -- BEST INTERNET RESOURCES FOR LEARNING ABOUT
ReplyDeleteBro D. wrote:
==================================
@Ginger,
If you are new to options, I might suggest bull spreads on SLV. An example would be to . . . . .
[ snip, snip ]
There are other more complex strategies, but in a bull market such as silver, this is an easy one to use.
April 2, 2011 1:43 PM
==================================
Dr. Jerome wrote:
==================================
@Ginger
I agree with Bro. D, A "spread" avoids some of the the problems I describe below.
[ snip, snip ]
I recommend paper trading these for a while until you get a good handle on it. There are better traders than I on this blog. Perhaps they can recommend some good books or websites for options learning and strategies. There are dozens of strategies you can use to trade them and minimize your risk.
April 2, 2011 2:13 PM
==================================
@Bro D. and @Dr. Jerome:
Thank you for your information.
I am generally ignorant of options and the strategies for trading them. Can you identify several good internet resources for learning about options? Right now, I seek resources that are aimed at "newbies," but, in a few months, I will probably want resources for more sophisticated options traders.
I am already aware of the obvious Internet resources, e.g., Investopedia, WikInvest, Options Xpress, etc.
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@pobox.com
This is where I wish we had a forum with a thread dedicated to options. I too feel I am ready to take the next step and learn how to trade options. I don't post much, but I've been reading daily since the last week in January. I've got long positions in our favorite miners (EXK, GPL, and WLDVF), and I actively trade AGQ (buying dips and selling near the highs).
ReplyDeleteMostly I'm in learning mode and will have more to say in the future when I have something of value to contribute. In the meanwhile, a big THANKS to the Turd and many others of you for sharing your knowledge and experience. It is helping others.
old-swift-boat - it sounds like we are in the same boat (terrible pun but there you go). I am in physical and have mining shares but I have been buying and holding. But it is difficult to watch the volatility and not try to profit from the trend + volatility. I find that there are too many variables in the options for me to read it correctly, but having read here for months am feeling more familiar with it all. Maybe with some hand-holding we might get somewhere. Experience if not riches.
ReplyDeleteHa - CurbYourMalthusiasm - similar post at similar time. But yeah, with a thread we could ask the dumb questions and watch each others' trades without boring the socks off everyone more knowledgeable.
ReplyDeleteGinger,
ReplyDeleteMy .02 that it sounds like you should just follow the silver trend and stick with good old fashioned calls at first, like you already are. Trying to think in the simplest terms, you could clear your positions and start from scratch. You want to open a trade that has a strategy behind it which you create and believe in, as well as an exit strategy tied to it. Your first move could be to watch the options price movement for a while and wait. You wait for what you know will always eventually come - a raid. Buy some ATM calls for a month out on the raid, and take profits incrementally on the way up.
Turds call for all out blitz by Blythe at 40 may provide a great opp to win big on a first options trade. Timing options buys shouldn't be underestimated.
Curb - know whatcha mean. Perhaps a thread for miners and futures/options trading and the market, perhaps one for news and another for the roll of pm's in survival scenarios and another for screw the fed and banks and CFTC/SEC etc. I'm sure that whatever the Turdmeister has up his sleeve will offer improvements over what he was sorta forced to set up in very short order. Like it takes me way too long to try to 'catch-up' so more often than not I don't even bother. But Turd's playground is so nice I feel like I'm missing something when all that valuable info just drifts on by.
ReplyDeleteDamn, it's tough typing while lying down on the couch!
The other Michael
Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI'm in same boat as you just slightly ahead perhaps. What i do is go with the winners like slw, uxg, and ung. I mostly buy long dated calls '12-'13 with strikes 25%-50% above current price it has worked out well so far. I buy puts during run ups or short/intermediate tops. I have also dragged my nephews into options as he's 20ish just out of school with a clearer head to understand this stuff as it is complicated. We also subscribe to a service that does pms (gld,slv etc.) that has worked well. I use options to fulfill that "trading urge",as I won't trade my shares.From what i understand you will only win 40% of time with options but it should be worth it if done correctly. options are weird ag went up and my slv $10 1/13 puts
gained yesterday. I too use only "Vegas" money.
Let me know how it works.
A hui hou malama pono.
Whoops...that's over 1/2 TRILLION in funny paper. No wonder it had piqued my interest. Y'know what they say about paper.
ReplyDeleteThe other Michael
Ginger,
ReplyDeleteWhat was the Forex trading class you were looking into a couple of months ago? Do they have an options class?
I learned options basics and technical charting from Investools, but I think I learned more by hanging around with some professional traders.
Is anyone trading options with AGQ? I have been trading SLV, but I think I'd rather trade a higher priced instrument so I don't have to do as many contracts. Any thoughts?
Ginger...I understand the confusion but unless you are aware it can get you into mis allocation of capital.....this is all economic cyles that will be obeyed. I agree with Gonzo's article but his conclusion is problematic. As the deflationary K wave or Megasupercycle in 2012 the PTB will wipe all the pretenders out. They will be well positioned during this deflationary cycle as the have spent the last couple of years reallocating their resources for the K-winter. I have written extensively on this and won't bore you with the details....but we are currently in a STAGFLATIONARY phase meaning increasing prices for essentials....Within the context of a much larger secular Deflationary wave. Asset prices are still deflating which is why the core inflation number remains controled (ie home/property etc)....The stagflation is the limiting factor on how far the ponzi can push it.....they already know ALL of this...including their mouthpiece (bernank)....this is already set...Many mistakenly believe we will hit hyperinflation before deflation....HIGHLY UNLIKELY!!! THAT is AWARENESS. gl to you.
ReplyDeleteGinger, xty, et al
ReplyDeleteI wish you the best in your new venture. Be advised that trading a demo account and trading your own real money are two different things entirely. Fear and Greed are horns on the same goat, and just when you think they've been banished for good they can come roaring back with a vengeance.
I like kumanari's advice about at least starting out with long dated calls. Give your genius some time to work. Something that expires next week or next month seems to me to give too many chances of ending up screwed, even if your thesis is correct.
Good Luck!
and never forget the "sleep at night" test
LooIs like we were same time, same place on the Liberty Dollar, Michael
ReplyDeleteGinger, also wanted to add that the reason the timing on the entry is so important is one of psychology. Having your trade go in the right direction soon after it's made provides the confidence that comes with having a profit cushion on the eventual further dips, where you can buy more and still be ahead
Being in the red with options will force you to make mistakes, because time decay will instill fear, especially if you are OTM. The trading gods will find any weakness you might have as a trader and exploit it! And they are good, them gods!
OK one more thing....IF one believes that Ben can create HYPERINFLATION before the deflationary wipeout of 2012-2015 then one needs to be invested and leveraged fully in real estate or for that matter anything in dollar demonination....true hyperinflation will make you rich as it essentially will wipe out all such debt........go back and read what happened to consumer and corporate debt after the 1923 Weimer hyperinflation
ReplyDeleteEric 1,
ReplyDeleteI'd be realty interested to know what you think of the Liberty Dollar creator's conviction?
Eric - I almost snorted my oatmeal:
ReplyDelete"Fear and Greed are horns on the same goat...." I was actually inspired to try my hand at this lunacy when I realized that people were trading silver out to December '15. I simply want to throw a small amount of money into the future. We shall see - I am really just planning on living vicariously through Ginger.
I had wanted to comment on the deflation - I do thing we are seeing deflation all around us, as mortgages get foreclosed and debts that are defaulted on shrink the money supply. And we see it in asset prices, except the inflated ones that act like a drug on the general populace. But I think that a full dip into deflation will be quick and that PMs will do as well or better than any other place I can put my money. So it seems that in both deflationary times and inflationary times you want to invest in precious metals. The mining stocks I am not as sure of, but I think PHS.U should be fine, and the gold fund we own, Sprott 300.
Stefan
ReplyDeleteI'm really quite surprised and flattered that anyone goes out of their way to ask my opinion about anything around here. And while I do sometimes have a habit of going blabbermouth about things I should shut up about, I must sadly disappoint on the Liberty Dollar case. Don't know enough about it to voice an intelligent opinion. Sorry.
xty
ReplyDeleteI must fess up that I stole the line from "The Vikings". Love and Hate...are horns on the same goat". It's a classic movie. :D
I wish I really were that clever.
syk,
ReplyDeleteYou said, "I think the call contract price generally will be higher when the contract has more time to expire since this reflects a greater likelihood of your contract expiring in the money. So in your case, as you get closer to expiration, the value of your option drops, offsetting the rise in the underlying instrument (SLV)."
Ok.. I understand the higher contract price with way out of the money calls.. except I've seen a few examples where they seem ultra cheap when the underlying value of the stock in question is falling.. right? ..And that might be a great time to 'time' OTM calls for a play that you believe will go higher.. My thinking.. may be way off. ?? ..Also, when you say that as you get closer to expiration the value of your option drops offsetting the rising (hopefully) stock value.. .well, that's a bit confusing.. because I thought your options value would INCREASE if the stock value is increasing. I assume you mean the time value portion of the option decreases..right? ..Not the overall option value if your stock value is headed the way you want it to. ..........right?
paulbain,
OldNavy recommended Chris Rowe to me several weeks back and I did find his options tutorial (very basic) helpful. http://c.tycoonresearch.com/s/K2PR
Curtains gave the advice: "...start with trading options on SLV & GLD. Get your feet wet with a few $300 postions and see how it goes. ..It took me a month of daily playing with ETF options before I ventured into futures options." ..which I also found helpful.
Fortinbras recommended www.poweropt.com/index.asp for identifying best positions.
Silversurfer recommended "Educate yourself on futures & options trading, watch some training videos, follow only successful traders; Get demo trading account until you have proven you can trade successfully consistently".
Someone else (I'm sorry I forgot to write down the name in my journal) recommends: Options Trading Training:
http://btjunkie.org/search?q=options+trading
CME Group: video series on getting started w/option trading: http:www.cmegroup.com/education/
Not sure I have all those links exactly right and I apologize if I do not as my writing is hard for me to decipher sometimes from my journal...but maybe this will be a start. ..I have not had the time to take all the advice given here yet.. but am working towards it!
Kumanari made an appearance in my journal also on 3/11 (if you care to go research that thread) with the information on RE options..strategy..and his/her ITM, NTM, OTM 70/30 call/put strategy.
Citizen Dr., Chin Music, Yukon, SilverIsKing, Turdle....and others have given me advice that I go back and re-read from my journal. Someday when I die ....my children are going to wonder who in the world these characters are that I hung around with such strange names! :]
@Ginger:
ReplyDeleteA good source for reading about deflation is
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
Their take is, as I understand it, that the Fed can't dispense dollars as fast as the credit system collapses. Hence asset prices will fall a lot. In deflationary times you want to be in cash. The question to me is cash in what currency? Gold has behaved like a currency in deflationary times, I don't know if silver will too. I suspect that since China and its citizens seem to be preferring gold and silver to $US these days, gold and silver will be a good bet in the years to come. But we could very well see a lengthy decline in gold and silver prices before the hyperinflation. Nobody really knows.
Kliguy38,
ReplyDeleteI may add to my real estate as the SHTF. I count it as real wealth, the same as PMs and other commodities. People must have homes to live in.
I have been wondering if any banks will be left standing to claim ownership of my mortgages after the crash?
If my state approves silver as legal tender tender, can I pay off mortgages with it and not have to pay capital gains tax? Is silver only taxed by the Feds when you sell? Or will using it as money count as a sale?
No problem, Eric
ReplyDeleteIf you're interested:
http://www.gata.org/node/9715
Schiff's new vlog covers the story well, too. Fun to ruminate on future currency. I tend to lean toward the theory that TPTB are moving us to an all electronic type of virtual currency, with something similar to RFID devices
Ginger/Franny
ReplyDeleteI agree that theautomaticearth is probably the most intelligently written deflationist website out there. I just happen to disagree with them that's all. Generally good reads, and food for thought though.
Franny ALMOST hit the nail on the head though. First let's define "cash". Then we can have an intelligent conversation about inflation/deflation and where we should put our wealth.
Kliguy points out the horns of the dilemma I feel hoisted upon. I'm getting out of the military and I would like to start a business. If I thought we were going straight to hyperinflation I would borrow up to my eyeballs. But the little voice that told me to sell my house in 2006 is telling me to stay completely debt free.
ReplyDelete@ Syk
ReplyDelete"Anyway, glad to know other young people such as yourself are well aware of what's going on. In my daily life, I tend to experience feelings of alienation and isolation being the only person I know (let alone young person) remotely concerned about inflation. Sometimes I look at friends and peers and can't help but feel serious doubt about our ability to overcome the many obstacles facing us in the near future."
---
I know exactly how you feel, as I definitely have two personalities. One personality is that of which I am fully conscious and aware of all of the things we speak of, actively wandering to wherever my mind wishes to go. I feel the internet is the key for this personality to exist. The other personality is the one I have to communicate with people who are not looking into future "political" or "economic" things. This personality reflects my years (not long ago) of who I was before I "awoke." I don't think there is any turning back, but I think a happy medium of those two lifestyles should be what I personally should try to achieve, but this may not be able to happen until I find out what is the next step.
It is indeed very difficult to communicate with those who talk about the future without respect to such dramatic changes on the horizon. I look at people and see how prepared they are going to be in the coming days, and this tends to frighten me a bit, but I use it to learn, not to be paralyzed by.
As for finding people that are similar minded, I think you should come to the next major Ron Paul event, I was hesitant to go at first, but I have met some life-changing contacts. Not everyone will share the same ideals as you, keep your eyes open for the ones that do and don't lose contact. I think we need to lead, as it is inherit in the youth. If we bail ship, that is not good. We are some of the youth that are actively on top of as much as we can handle, and I did not come this far to go away. If you are anything like me, I am ultra-competitive.
Playing all of those computer games and striving to be the best and utilizing everything that internet gives me a leg-up on older generations. They do not see the type of utilization of the internet that was achieved. All of the pieces are in place, we do need to be the arche-types of the future, through the internet (and then transform it into reality).
You should get in contact with me,
hardrightedge@gmail.com
-
Scott
Overly simplistic but worth consideration...
ReplyDeleteFed prints money(fiat), fiat supply grows, inflation follows, increased demand for items (temporary business boom), then rising prices, and finally recession.
I noticed a news article yesterday about rising demand for automobiles (due to several factors) and, if true, that means an increased demand for platinum and palladium. I have owned platinum coins but traded them for gold (at a tidy profit) a few months back. Does anyone here invest (physical or paper) in either metal and what are your ideas as a future investment? Thank you!
@Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI'm fairly new to options trading myself. I too have May 37 SLV calls. Relax. I would be more worried if they fluctuated constantly. Remember that a call is just a bet that something will have a particular price in the future. If the price seems stuck for a few days, that makes the bet a little less attractive. Hence the wager may drop a little. Do you doubt that SLV will be selling for a lot more than $38.50 in the middle of May? I can sleep well with that thesis.
CurbYourMalthusiasm,
ReplyDeleteStick around.. please and ask the questions so that I can learn from you too!
Stefan,
I have to keep it very (VERY) basic right now. I don't know enough to develop complicated strategies. ..Although even the most basic strategy IS a strategy! ..I have the SLV May call and want to add maybe a USO or WTI call next week..depending on the market ? ...But I believe oil is heading way up by the end of this year or early next.. ..I really want to get in on that ..but yes, I have to have the most basic strategy that is hopefully still a good profitable one.
kumanari,
You make appearances in my journal too. lol. ..Thank you for the info. I have on my list of possible trades..UXG & UNG.. and the long dated trades really interest me for some reason.. I guess I think the time decay/value thing would be more on my side and I would perhaps get luckier. I am going to absolutely consider your strategy.
Dr. Jerome,
Someone here recommended babypips.com ...which I found enormously helpful. I have not finished all of that online training though as it is extensive but very thorough. I got sidetracked with the options and decided to go for that first. Seemed a bit less intimidating to me for some reason. I think they were mostly forex/currency trades training though.. not options. ..
Eric,
Absolutely a good word, as I like my sleep! ..I have such a small $ amount on my options right now. If I lost it ..I would kick myself a little but I sure am not going to bet the farm on anything with 'MY' limited abilities. I like the long call recco too.. But it *was* still March when I made the May call deal. ...All of a sudden though it seems like I have not much time left!
Oh..on more thing Stefan ..what you said about the timing of your option entry is critical ..as I'm finding out. I bought my options on a 'green' day. How stupid. I did it because my ACH transfer (my first one!) went through THAT DAY.. and I just HAD to try my hand at options trading THAT DAY! !! ...........SLV had a nice little red downturn the very next day and it..of course..would have been much much brighter to have bought in then. ..I'm only down a small amount ..still...a lesson that I already knew..but ignored.. was relearned. "/
Yay I'm glad I'm NOT in Ginger's journal! Sounds a lot like a CIA hitlist... just joking.
ReplyDeleteScottj88: You are a smart guy buy don't discount the experience of the older generation online. After all my generation (Generation Jones) invented the Internet :-)
I have as many years here as you are old. Not braggin - just saying...
kliguy,
ReplyDeleteI have spent time on your blog ..and will continue to do so. There is much I do not understand about "the deflationary K wave or Megasupercycle in 2012..." ....Ai Yi Yi.. ..Am I the only one? ..This all gets way to complicated but I feel it is crucial for us to understand. Thank you.. and I'll do some reading.
Thank you to Franny!.. You just made it into my journal with your advice/website reccomendation. :D ..Reading I will get to eventually. How on earth do you all keep up with everything? "/
...It seems nearly impossible to ascertain whether we should be in metals, stocks, real estate, currencies, commodities ..and at WHAT TIMING for it all ...inflation.. delfation.. hyperflation.. ....I'm dizzy.
Even in the danger of hyperinflation you don't jump both feet in real estate simply b/c you don't wanna jump into any assets that have been overly supplied.
ReplyDeleteXaritas,
ReplyDeleteThat was EXACTLY my thinking when I bought my calls. From TF posts and charts here.. it seemed a sound educated guess that SLV wouldn't have a huge struggle to reach that 37 number. I really felt good about my 'purchase'.. ..it was only the volatility that I guess I didn't understand well enough in the ensuing couple of days. I figured if the underlying stock price rose..the SLV calls would have no choice but to rise also ..but it didn't. ....I will be patient.. and not get stressed about it. 6/7 weeks out is plenty of time for these to right themselves. ..I hope!
kumanari: I know I should Google it, but what is a '85 mbz? I really like how you recycle the oil and use waste for fuel. My local craft beer maker gives their waste from production to a farmer who gladly hauls off their used malt/yeast/oats to feed his livestock. I love these kind of symbiotic relationships. Anytime you can turn waste into energy/things it's good karma and good business. Turning lead into gold like a modern day alchemist. I've often pondered how to turn poop into money. Maybe install hydroelectric generators in the sewers?
ReplyDeleteE hana me ka ha`aha`a
Not so fast there kiyotei! lol..... MOST everyone here is in it because you all put out so much great information that I found I could not find the right thread quickly enough when I needed it. Hence...the journal. ..Now I can flip a few pages and read all the pearls of wisdom that are put forth here.
ReplyDelete...I should just copy/paste to an online document ..but I also find that I don't tend to pull that back up everytime I want to 'write' something in it. ....Come to think of it.. it was someone here who recommended keeping a journal.... :]
@Ginger.. We actually need an official archivist here because what happens when Turd pulls the plug on this resource? Hopefully he keeps it online so we can refer back to it as needed but it would be nice to have some of the highlights and useful information in some smart person's desk! :-)
ReplyDeleteBesides I'm sure I'd be in it except but I only post nonsense and drivel here /sarc off
Can you see me smiling while I type this? I smile a lot when I post. Too much in fact. But if I didn't laugh so much I'd have to scream sometimes.
"A hui hou malama pono."
ReplyDeleteAnd..I just learned something else. :}
"Take Care, Until we meet again"...according to answers.com Nice. I really like that. ;)
kiyotei,
ReplyDeleteWas it you who posted the 'stupid' rant?
I LOL .....and emailed it to my husband who was out of town and going in for a yearly review with his boss (boss is not known to be easy to work for) that day. ...I told him if his boss didn't come across with a sufficient raise.. just leave that rant on his desk. :D
He emailed back and said it more fit all the politicians he could think of.
kiyotei asked...
ReplyDelete"I've often pondered how to turn poop into money."
------------------
It is simple!
1. Buy the land adjacent to your residence with a horse barn on it
2. Rent out the stalls to horse owners as a 'self-care operation, so that you do not spend your time taking care of the horses.
3. Write into the lease that the horse owners must haul the manure to your property line.
4. Put this manure onto your compost pile, then use it in your garden and feed your fruit trees & berries with it as well.
5. Sell the fruit & vegetables from your garden.
Do-able indeed!
-Mammoth
..And yeah.. ..I *hope* Turd has provision for saving all the threads/info to date! Yikes.. .that's actually a good question/thought. I like to be able to refer back.. You can't write everything here down!
ReplyDeleteLaughter is great medicine. I don't do it enough these days. I appreciate the reminder.
Question for all of you in the hyperinflationary camp....as you should know hyperinflation will wipe out all consumer and corporate debt and government debt.....which means that you would no longer be debt slaves to those who control the world....do you think that erasing your debt is in their best interests??? They OWN the Fed...
ReplyDeleteXaritas,
ReplyDeleteOne other rule I learned the hard way last August was to not play the "front months"-the month of options expiry and the next (right now would be April and May). I haven't seen the Wicked Witch really put the hammer down since then, but if she does, things get really ugly. So I go farther out so that I can ride out a six week or more correction, if necessary.
btw, the Turd taught me that options lesson last Fall.
@Ginger ... guilty as charged. Although I wish I had written the rant as well as I admire the distinct lack of profanity. :-)
ReplyDelete@Mammoth - Nicely done! You are now my goto alchemist here.
kliguy38 ... partially i'm in your boat - but question is, if you are right about deflation next 1-2 or 2-3 years - how to deal and trade with it? (posted similar Q in your blog).
ReplyDeleteWould appreciate a more detailed reply.
Maybe that is worth a more detailed post in your blog?
@kiyotei '85 mbz = 1985 Mercedez Benz.
ReplyDeleteIt's about running diesel engines on (recycled) vegetable oil. There are some great resources on the internet and some things you should be aware of if you live in a climate that has seasons near or below freezing as the veg oil can get pretty thick and cause flow issues.
Older Benz's are highly favoured for their conversion ability and the underlying solid workmanship.
Google 'biodiesel', and I'm sure that kumanari can add practical experience. I have a nephew in California who has had great success with his.
OPTIONS -- MORE ON
ReplyDeleteGinger wrote:
==================================
paulbain,
OldNavy recommended Chris Rowe to me several weeks back and I did find his options tutorial (very basic) helpful.
http://c.tycoonresearch.com/s/K2PR
[ snip, snip ]
Not sure I have all those links exactly right and I apologize if I do not as my writing is hard for me to decipher sometimes from my journal.
Kumanari made an appearance in my journal also on 3/11 (if you care to go research that thread) with the information on RE options..strategy..and his/her ITM, NTM, OTM 70/30 call/put strategy.
Citizen Dr., Chin Music, Yukon, SilverIsKing, Turdle....and others have given me advice that I go back and re-read from my journal.
April 2, 2011 3:53 PM
==================================
OK, Ginger, thank you for this information. Apparently, I missed the prior thread of discussion (ToD) where this matter was discussed. Does anyone have the URL for the ToD on options?
Ginger, I do not have the URL for your journal. Could you please supply it? Thanks in advance.
-- Paul D. Bain
paulbain@pobox.com
Kliguy, think you hit a nerve here. I too have had many a sleepless night wondering what to do in a true deflation. I believe gold will do fine, not so sure about silver. I'm hoping to be be 100% debt free by end of year, thats my main focus, and to have a decent cash/gold/silver reserve.
ReplyDeleteIf/when deflation hits, I don't think miner stocks will do well. Probably better than other stocks, but still they will also deflate.
Thoughts?
Quick note on gas. I am an American, raised in Troy, Michigan and Naperville, Illinois. I have spent the last 18 years living in southern Germany, in Bavaria. I absolutely love it here. Even after all of these years, I still think like an American when it comes to certain things, so I’ll occasionally get out a calculator and make a conversion to dollars. So, just yesterday I filled up my gas tank (a Hyundai Tuscon), for a grand total of 74.00 Euro’s. I decided to calculate it out. At a price of 1.61 Euro per liter, I multiplied 1.61 X 3.8 liters per gallon and came up with 6.12 Euro (or DM 12.24) per gallon. At a EUR/$ of 1.4248, that means that I paid the equivalent of $8.72 per Gallon. Cash registers in Germany should be placed lower, so that customers could bend over properly when they pay.
ReplyDeleteMy Grandfather bought his first house in Muskegon, MI in 1949 for $5.300. My father bought his first house in Muskegon, MI in 1966 for $19.500. My grandfather said, “$20,000, are you out of your fucking mind? How are you ever going to pay that off?” I built my own home in Germany myself because having it built would have been much too expensive. I paid about 190,000.00 Euro’s in 2002. My house is the smallest of the three. Deflation is the least of my concerns.
ReplyDeletekliguy38
ReplyDeleteHyperinflation would also wipe out the buying power of most peoples savings, wipe out the buying power of most peoples pensions and social security, and wipe out the buying power of most peoples current labor.
That would put most of us right where THEY want us! Whoever THEY are!
The only thing of any value would be "Stuff". A few would have a lot of "stuff", most of it in fact. And a great many of us would have hardly any "stuff" at all. Unless you can get a little piece of land or sock away some gold coins. That counts as "stuff".
Pinning the argument in terms of what is in "their best interests" leaves it unresolved, I think.
kiyotei,
ReplyDeleteAs a total deviation from the topics of hyperinflation & options.. and in the spirit of your Stupid Rant ..one reason it gave me a chuckle was because it reminded me of the Antoine Dodson news story from back last Fall.. ..Not sure if anyone here saw this.. but it was a local news story that went viral I guess on you tube after it was auto-tuned. The underlying story certainly wasn't funny!..as it was an interview with a guy whose sister..I think.. was the victim of an attempted rape. (The girl got away I believe).. Anyway, he..Antoine..basically gave this news interview where he was speaking directly to the alleged rapist and told him among other things that he is 'dumb..really really dumb'. ...So..as I was reading your rant.. I kept having this song play in my mind. lol.
Proceeds of the viral you tube song supposedly went to the victims of the crime.
You can hear the news story/interview here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzNhaLUT520
And the You Tube auto-tuned news story/song here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKsVSBhSwJg
Run And Tell That, Homeboy. lol.
@Ginger.. I remember it well. Hide yo wives, hide yo kids! Came out about the same time as the double rainbow guy :-)
ReplyDeleteHeated fuel lines/tank for cold weather climes as veg oil is thicker than diesel. it all comes with conversion kit about $400.
ReplyDeleteginger we utilize sk options they give us trades $99/6month well worth it. http://www.skoptionstrading.com/trading-record/
If you want more 411 e kamaainacatering@yahoo.com my junk mail site.
I wrote an extensive post with choke 411 but it keeps getting "lost" so I won't do long or many posts. I'll send an old sk flash so you can see how they explain what is going on in options market, it's very interesting.
A hui hou, malama pono.
paulbain,
ReplyDeleteMy journal is just my own silly handwritten journal! ..I mean ..like a diary! ...I don't have it online. Basically, I just write down any tidbits from Turd and the folks here that I think I may want to refer back to. Those sites and quotes I listed above were an example of some of the options advice that I've gotten from here.
I don't think, unfortunately, there is one thread here on Turd's site that discusses options in great details...It's kind of just alot of information about it scattered throughout. ..Maybe others will chime in here with some other great resources that we can learn from.
Double Rainbow Guy??...
ReplyDeleteI think that you will do best if you have 'stuff' in either deflationary or inflationary times. I have tried to figure out the debt question and just decided my parents must be right and no debt is best. Counting on my bank to fail before I do seems risky. As to silver vs gold, I figure if gold is valuable, silver will be too.
ReplyDeleteGinger - as to what to trade to best effect: I decided, or found, that it was possible to focus of silver and gold exclusively, for both holding and trading, to be able to both profit from it as an investment, and feel that I was getting a hedge against an unforeseeable future. We do have cash, a paid for house, and some stodgy dividend investments too that I am watching to sell. But those things don't take much decision making. And when we had a more crowded portfolio it was too much to think of, with different sectors performing different ways. Our stodgy investments are in different segments of the economy anyway. So sticking to silver that you have been watching seems a very sound idea, and it will probably perform as well if not better than other commodities.
LOL.. .thanks kiyotei.. ..just googled it. ..Too funny.
ReplyDeleteOk. This blog needs you and your humor. A fabulous balance to the apocolypse speak imo. lol.
Ok, if you want humor here's a take from Billy Madison:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MRmxfLuNto
Xty,
ReplyDeleteYou are so far ahead of many. I wish my house was paid for. ..But I am firmly in the camp of 'no debt' is a way better way to live. I am trying to get there as fast as I can. I have come to hate.........that is loatheeeeeee.....debt. I haven't been smart for most of my life. But I'm getting there. ..If the weight of it doesn't kill me first.
But back to the topic.. I am going to stick strictly with SLV and maybe oil options. Definitely only commodities as this market is just too good to pass up for now and as I alluded to above.. I need to find a way to leverage what little $ I have to get the ball rolling more than it is. I am NOT saying that I think you should gamble with money that you could otherwise use to pay down debt. ...Even though I am doing that a little.. it is very little ..and I'm trying to play very smart with the trade vehicles I choose. If i die by my own sword.. well, it feels like my current debt may kill us anyway.. so I've got to try something.
I absolutely admire those of you who have played the last 20 years smarter than me. I'm awake now. Wish I had been sooner.
Also wish houses were selling around here better. :[
Bro D: 2 thumbs up! My favorite Sandler movie scene is the duke out with Bob Barker.
ReplyDeleteOr shall I take it personal and leave? ;-)
rofl, Bro.D.
ReplyDeleteI now have a collection of these coming along nicely. :D
kiyotei is going to become our blog humorist legend ...much the way afrum became our poet legend.
ReplyDeleteI miss afrum. :(
kiyotei,
ReplyDeleteHappy Gilmore, I believe.
@Ginger - I could never rise to the heights of legend... and humor is relative. I will however serve as a novice Heyókȟa for a while :-)
ReplyDeleteBro D. - Oh yeah!
Ginger
ReplyDeleteI don't know anything about options except that many hold this book to be their options bible.
http://www.amazon.com/Options-Strategic-Investment-Lawrence-McMillan/dp/0735201978/ref=wl_it_dp_o?ie=UTF8&coliid=I3DHB6H6COEWUD&colid=1VEHSOCQYI8H8
Germany betrayed "they" by hyperinflating away their debt.....the punishment for Germany is the same for anyone stupid enough to take on the greatest concentration of power EVER on this earth. If you can put yourself in their position then you can become aware. My posts here are strictly speculative and are to be taken as such.
ReplyDeleteJust curious what oil options you are using Ginger.
ReplyDeletekliguy38 wrote: "If you can put yourself in their position then you can become aware."
ReplyDelete____________________________________________
How does the current situation compare to Weimar?
I think the inflation/deflation question is the most important one out there. I wish I could be 100% sure about it either way. I think and read about it all the time. For now at least, I'm in the inflation camp.
ReplyDeleteI could have been debt free, or nearly so, by now. But I made the decision that a little more debt, for now, in order to be able to lay in a little more gold and silver, was worth it. I've made my choice. Who knows how it will all work out?
Eric#1: Inflation in the things you need and deflation in things you want, or aspire to have.
ReplyDeleteThe net effect is they keep us all down on the farm. Debt and not having debt (save for a small mortgage perhaps) is the key to making it through what's coming.
So I have been struggling to get it down, and like you borrowed the dollars for a retirement account with plans for quick repatriation of those dollars. By then, a year or so, I'll be there.
If there is a there there.
http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17875
ReplyDeleteFrom Monopoly Money to Phony Money Altogether--Police Seize Fake U.S. T-Bonds in Italy
April 1, 2011 • 8:41AM
Why do I think this little report is even more significant than the story of the tungsten bars that were pulled off a train in the alps last year? If this story is true than two things come immediately to mind: a) where did they get the story because I cannot find a trace of its origins through new.google.com or elsewhere and b) what will it do to the confidence in the dollars held by foreign sovereigns as the news comes out next week? Have I been drinking too much flouride...or kool-aide?
P.S. If this story is found true, I know where I would place my bets on the bottom-top thing. (Sorry, Turd)
The other Michael
@HappyInTheWoods: Hat tip for the biodiesel info. May your nephew be blessed with a generous helping of leftover french fry oil from his local McDonalds.
ReplyDelete@kumanari: Thinking of Hawaii. Kauai and Niihua were my favorites but I have a Kahuna friend on the big Island I NEED to see. Dreams of flummin da ditch again and enjoying Kona's wonderful products feel my head. Aloha!
We all have to balance different factors in our lives. It is amazing how similar some of us seem. But it is obvious that we don't know what is coming so it is no surprise we have slightly different approaches.
ReplyDeleteI want to pull an elder on Scott and second the other oldster who said not to discount the old folks around here - we may have helped inadvertently to make this mess, but some of us are smart and wise and wisdom is something only time gives. And unfortunately that advice always sounds patronizing - but that is because it is fatherly, or in this case motherly. I do believe the internet is a hugely significant invention, but not just for the gaming youth of today.
@ Michael
ReplyDeleteI saw it reported and this is not the first time.
$134bn bond scam arrests
By Hannah McCarthy
Sunday, 14 June 2009
Two middle-aged men have reportedly been detained in Italy while trying to take $134bn in US bonds – equivalent to the entire GDP of Kazakhstan – into Switzerland.
The undeclared bonds were discovered by Italian police in the false bottom of a suitcase when they searched the men on a train stopping in Chiasso, near the Swiss border, on 3 June. Japan is investigating reports that two of its citizens are involved.
The two men would, if the bonds are genuine, be the US government's fourth-biggest creditor, ahead of the UK with $128bn of US debt, and behind Russia, which is owed $138bn. The two men could also be fined around 40 per cent of the total value of the bonds – $38bn.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/134bn-bond-scam-arrests-1704893.html
Xty: there's no dog like an old dog, and this plump poodle will be able to hold my own, with a little help from my friends. I'm getting to know the neighbors, building political alliances with the incoming sheriff. Networking, networking, networking.
ReplyDeleteThink and act locally, grow some food, get your neighbors to do the same swap between yourselves. Get some chickens, sell the eggs, share from your excesses to those in need; especially your neighbors.
oh Turd, you better play golf. First off including gonzalo lira as an opinion piece which is frought with bullshit shows your acumen. This is what he said (which is the whole premise of that excuse of an article: "Money is a good like any other—and like any good, it has a price: Its interest rate" Really??? Money has a price and that is interest rates? BWHAHAHAH is that what you think also Turd? common get real will ya?
ReplyDeleteYou clearly have not been trading for a while or you will know that ORDs are a trader enemy. Be careful sheeple your being led to slaughter.
@ max
ReplyDeleteI think your comment is, to quote a genius, "Within the context of no context." (George Trow).
Gonzalo is pointing out that our system is totally distorted precisely because we have corrupted the role of i in our economy. Instead of conveying information ("this project is not an efficient use of capital") it has been wrested from the market and become the plaything of our overlords. And they are using it both to entice us and destroy us all to their benefit.
The guy is right on the money.
max: yep, led to the slaughter
ReplyDeletethat's why I won't do it, not even until I need glasses, but some who go all in with options and exotic stuff, or even follow the advice of the more obvious pumpers (though it is unfortunate when I find myself owning one)
folks, stick with what you know, and not so much of that either
the market exists to separate you from your 'money'
and max, lighten up please, no one is being led anywhere
this place is like herding cats
@ jake
ReplyDelete"this place is like herding cats"
Jake, you made my day. LOL!
Be sure to read the following book, if you haven't already!
ReplyDeleteWhen Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse
http://www.iamthewitness.com/books/When%20Money%20Dies.pdf
@max your = you're.
ReplyDeleteI've noticed this mispelling in other anti-Turd posts. Do you have any aliases here?
There is only one reason to be here on this blog. To gain knowledge from the Turd. I can't say I understand all his methods and his chart reading is akin to voodoo to me. But he has made some pretty good calls so far and the community he spawned is unique and insightful. I am a "founding member" who joined a day or two after he started this blog and I lurked more than I posted in the past.
Perhaps if you think the Turd is not someone to read, you might find it more entertaining to linger on the ZH site?
A sincere respectful reply may be responded to but anything else will be considered troll-bait and ignored for now unto eternity.
Have a great day! :-)
Irene: in case you or the others have never seen this, it's the best ever one minute vid
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_MaJDK3VNE
kiyotei wrote: "There is only one reason to be here on this blog. To gain knowledge from the Turd."
ReplyDelete_______________________________________________
maybe at first, but the phenomenom created transcends this
even so, it does give some a shitty outlook
for others, the redolence is sublime
now you have some looking up to do
Kiyotei,
ReplyDeleteThe best way to go is wvo/svo. Biodesel requires chemicals (lye and methanol) I did it for a while with friends, works but it's work and requires methanol which is flammable.Depends on vehicle, i like easy and practical hence mbz wvo/svo.
The bonds were fake there were no Kennedy bonds produced. Two Japanese nationals on a local train dressed to the nines, they could have crossed in a car with no hassle. Someone was
sending someone a message, the bonds amounted the the same amount of $ as something else that was going on at the time, a bond sale in japan OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT I'm pulling this from memory.The men were sent home.
INflation
ReplyDeleteDEflation
RUINation of our nation
Ball of confusion
@kyotei:Heyókȟa=cool, keep it up. Easier road than berdache.
@jake I know all those words except redolence (although I might guess at it's meaning from the Latin root).
ReplyDeleteYour reply shall be digested and the resulting waste from my brain shall be forthcoming.
@ jake le snake
ReplyDeleteYessiree, that is some comedy!
/apologies for the awful rhyme ;)
Speaking of old dogs, I'm heading out to run mine. They are German Shorthaired Pointers. Jenny is the pretty, wild young thing. Bucker is the grey muzzled old boy. Still steady and solid as a rock.
ReplyDeleteAdieu
@jake Thanks! A word that can mean stinky and pleasant at the same time is awesome! The manure on my grandfather's farm had that quality. I love the smell of it more than napalm in the morning.
ReplyDelete@kumanari- your posts have me intrigued. Do you know anyone that uses a small generator with the same principle?
@nightmoves - Thank you for the education. I thought it was a pun on Bernake at first but surprise, surprise! It certainly seems a much harder task. I think I'll stick to climbing down ladders upside down instead! :-)
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110401DC_ron_paul.html
ReplyDeleteRep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has one question for the U.S. Mint: why is there a coin shortage?
He is aiming to get to the bottom of this during a scheduled April 7 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
I sure am learning alot of cool stuff here today. :) ...although I'm probably the only one that didn't know this..
ReplyDeleteThe word Heyókȟa refers to the Lakota concept of a contrarian, jester, satirist or sacred clown. Heyókȟa are thought of as being backwards-forwards, upside-down, or contrary in nature. This spirit is often manifest by doing things backwards or unconventionally—riding a horse backwards, wearing clothes inside-out, or speaking in a backwards language.
Irene,
Thank you! ..You're in my journal. hehee. :D ...need more time to do all this reading tho!
Much4Him,
I haven't bought any oil options yet.. just started out with the SLV ..BUT I was thinking of gettin' me some Jan12 USO or UNG(nat gas) or WTI. ...I would be interested too as to what others here think of those. I looked at DIG but those calls were VERY expensive! ...I guess because it corresponds to twice the daily performance of the Dow oil/gas index?? ...So.. I will probably go with one of the others as I can't buy a $6 or $7 contract no matter what the return!
Eric,
ReplyDeleteIf you can sometime.. post a photo of Jenny & Bucker. ..I was never a 'dog person' because I never had one as a kid but when my own 2 kids wanted a dog and I finally relented and got them a dog.. ..well.. she is a JOY to us all ..especially to me. She is a small dog.. Cavalier King Charles Spaniel and I couldn't love her more. I'm definitely a 'dog person' now.
Would love to see your babies. Xty's mouse is a cutie-pie.
@Ginger and Kyotei
ReplyDeleteThat Lakota contrarian thing has been in my awareness since Hanta Yo (book) and Little Big Man (movie).
Kudos to you both for your "root hog or die" attitude (of looking it up for yourselves) which maybe some others should take a hint from.
@Ginger.. Very nice. But it is also important to understand the reason behind the behavior ;-) If you find the concept interesting I recommend joining The Church of the SubGenius for inspiration.
ReplyDeleteI am only here to poke trolls, learn from the Turd and absorb through group osmosis. And perhaps to foolishly search for a panacea to this economic disease we all face.
Good luck to all in your endeavors. I must go silent for a few weeks and learn the secret language of hummingbirds. I will return around the 18th to collect my silver at $40 prize or to congratulate any winner(s).
Bon Jour
-k
nightmoves: It's a Kabuki ritual dance. We're in the latter part of the first act or the early part of the second act. They have an all hands on deck look about them. Some say one thing, some say others. Some base their opinion on the pure math of the matter, others are more experiential, some more Keynesian, some take away the punch bowl.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the ride. Go with the flow.
nightmoves,
ReplyDeleteI have to look up practically everything. I can't believe how much dumber I am than my fifth grader. ..Ok..fourth grader. :D
(only half kidding)
Ok kiyotei ...God Speed ..But if you come back speaking hummingbird.. I don't know how I'm gonna find out what the words mean. ..You're already keeping me on my toes.
ReplyDeleteYo Jake
ReplyDeleteI often refer to Kabuki myself as ongoing commentary.
But I was actually referring to something cryptically that you may not be old enough to ken.
1970 Temptations
nightmoves: not to worry, Jake knows all about Buddhists
ReplyDeleteword verify: unwor LOL!!!
...old enough to ken
ReplyDelete______________________
who talks like that? :-)
This is an entertaining, educational and fascinating thread. They all are tho.
ReplyDeletenightmoves, ah,,, Little Big Man, haven't seen it in ages, will have to watch it again now. There was a guy who was a rival of Little Big Man, always trying but never succeeding to get 'one up' on him. He finally thought he trumped him when he said: "I've got a wife and two horses". LBM replied, "I've got a horse and two wives." That was too much for him. He wigged out.
Yanta Ho,imho, is one of the best novels ever written.
ReplyDeleteHow can we not be excited with silver making its highest quarterly close ever??
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry Hanta Yo
ReplyDeleteI know you've been waiting. Another Naked Silver Saturday is up on my blog at:
ReplyDeletehttp://yukoncorneliusssilverandgold.blogspot.com/2011/04/naked-silver-saturday-american-silver.html
I pour my heart and soul into these things in an effort to open hearts and eyes. I hope you enjoy them and maybe learn something in the process. =)
Yukon
now, back to what it is that makes this place special
ReplyDeletekiyotei - re your = you're - that post is full of errors - no capitals, no punctuation, an opening ( but no closer. I am often the stickler on here for no swearing, no ad hominem arguments, etc. I try not to jump all over little errors because we all get excited posting (and I for one type terribly and can't spell) but when there are that many errors you know you are faced with an illogical, lazy mind.
ReplyDeleteJake - and then I post - wow.
ReplyDeleteBFF!!! LOL!!!
ReplyDeletejust snagged this from MK's joint
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70ZHQ--cK40&feature=player_embedded
not to be alarmist, but if it's gonna take months to bring under control (i.e. no nuclear spew), then it stands to reason the cloud girdling the planet will only become more problematic
News from the Baltimore Coin show. I can confirm that Common date Morgan silver dollars in higher grades are being hoarded and snapped up. It is expected that in one to two months, the market will be dry and lower quality junk 90% silver will be next to go.
ReplyDeleteIn short, frantic buying of silver has started in the coin market. Higher prices are ahead.
Y'all are gettin a major shoutout on /b/ tonight. You've really hit the spotlight now Turd. LOL
ReplyDeleteGinger - I'm flattered you saved my comment, doubly so since you handwrote it. :-) I have to admit that I've had second thoughts about trading options, and I'm trying to find my way again. I made really good money trading futures options for a bit, but the action got too heavy for me to pass the sleep test. Having a $10k up day is great, the other direction not so much. At the moment I am lightly invested in SLV options, much the same as you. I've been dollar cost averaging on the dips, but haven't sold them yet. I think the options work great on strong up moves. The big advantage is the limited risk -- if you buy a May 37.75 call option on the silver futures contract, which is $2.576 with 53 days to expiration, that's all you risk. But at the same time, silver has to rise $2.576 an ounce in 53 days for you just to break even. Of course you can sell it early, but you still have to make that lost time premium up. As a counter example, if you just buy the futures contract on margin, you risk the full value of the contract ($188,000 which sounds really scary), but you only have to put up the margin, which I believe is now around $12k. Compare that to the option you're buying at $12,880. With the contract you participate 100% in the move up (or down) in price, but the option will not move 100% until you are in the money and very close to expiration. If by expiration silver is at $40.25, your contract will have gone up by $12k, but the option will be worth what you paid for it. The big risk is silver having a big spike down, where your contract will reflect 100% of the losses. But such a big move will tank the value of your option too, and realistically the spikes down have not been nearly as big. You would want to know in advance at what point you would be stopped out of the trade, and how much such a move would decrease the value of the option or the underlying security. Taking the $12k example, if silver drops $2.50 from here all of a sudden, would you sell or buy more? I'm talking about futures, but the same concept applies to the ETFs too. Of course the margin requirements are different, only having to put up $12k to trade a $188k futures contract is a good deal, if it works out for you.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if that helps any, or makes it more confusing. Trading options can definitely be a dangerous thing. In my mind it's a great tool if the market is going strongly in your direction, but during consolidation phases it works in the bank's favor (most options expire worthless). Options are not necessarily the best way.
I vouch 100% for Eric's comment about fear and greed. When a big trade is going against you it's very hard to be objective. I've kicked myself several times for capitulating at the wrong moment. I've gotten to the point where I find it hard to buy when the timing is good and I just miss out on the action, rather than have it go against me. I'm just glad I got into trading options during a bull market, otherwise I'm sure I would have a big loss on my hands. Be careful!
By the way, I just noticed your comment on buying USO out to Jan '12. I think USO can be a good vehicle for short term trades, but it has a very high decay rate and is considered a horrible investment long term. If you're serious about doing options, look into an account that can trade futures options and trade OTM options on /CL (the crude futures contract).
BTW, I'm sure I made some math errors in there, I didn't verify anything about the prices and whatnot, I'm just posting off the cuff here.
ReplyDeleteI asked this once before, but I am not sure anyone ever responded. If so, I missed it. I've been planning on buying some longer time-frame options, and I've been particularly tempted to get something like a December 40 call on silver. When I first looked it would have been about $12,500, now it's more like $18,000 (remember we're talking 5,000 oz per contract). This seems like a pretty good bet, if silver reaches $50/oz, the option will be worth $50k at expiration. At $60, it would be worth $100k. If silver drops, the option will of course fall also, but it seems far enough out that even a prolonged correction would hopefully be over by then. I might revisit this and find a sweetspot closer to $10-12k, so maybe a December 44 call or something. If we hit $100 in a hyperinflationary scenario (and the comex doesn't go bust first), that option would be nice to have at about a $270k profit. I'd love to get feedback on this strategy.
ReplyDeletehttp://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-has-silver-come-from-and-where-is.html#more
ReplyDeleteRe: gasoline..
ReplyDeleteI studied this like crazy a few weeks ago and even bought some storage containers. But, the thought of having it in this hot climate during the summer made me nervous.
Ultimately, it was a wise old guy at the gym who cleared it all up for me. I now just top up every 1/8 or 1/4 tank instead of letting it go to less than the red 2 gallon mark, LOL!
@ Vincent
ReplyDeleteThanks for the article. Really enjoyed it, and for those who are looking for numbers associated with the demand in silver OZs for the industrial market in 2010, it gave a very nice breakdown.
Cheers,
Scott
Just got this link from my brother:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/education/msw/chi/index.cfm
Yeah, the Federal Reserve using sports media to promote personal financing. I bet their recommendation is to use reputable credit cards like their primary shareholder Chase and manage in an appropriate level of credit to avoid excessive fees, but to have the privilege of the "buy it now" feeling.
Here's a tip, buy physical silver. I think I should go with my own exhibit, one promoting physical silver as a hedge against the falling US Dollar. That and pay in full on everything you can. It is hard enough for many to live on no/insufficient incomes, and credit card fees are a NET DRAIN on society.
And they wonder how the wealth gap became so large....
This really is the twilight zone.
@Ginger,
ReplyDeleteI had a proper response written out and then clicked on Scottj88's bloglink which then erased what I typed.
In short, the question you have about timing a dip w/ purchasing OTM calls would be good if you think the contract will still expire in the money.
And yes, time to expiration is one variable of the Black-Scholes model that goes into calculating the option value. The current share price of the underlying stock is another. So one variable may influence the option contract value downwards while the other influences it upwards.
@ Syk
ReplyDeleteI believe you are right regarding the call option price with respect to expiring time. From my understanding (I have never traded options but learned from school), as time expires the call price is technically decaying if the other variables remained constant.
We see that the price of a call option is:
C(S,t) = N(D1)*S - N(D2)*K*e^(-r(T-t))
The part that is in focus is the e^(-r(T-t)). When t = T, it sends e^(-r(T-t)) = 1, maximizing the second argument in the equation (Which is subtracted so when t=T, the call option should be at its lowest price, as there is no more variance and just a payout or a walkaway). So, as LIM t->T, I would assume that the second argument would get larger and larger, effectively lowering the call price.
However, this does not take into account d1 & d2 (which are also dependent on time and the share price, strike price, implied volatility, and the all so certain "risk free" rate). Judging from the equations and trying to comprehend what happens as lim t->T, I think it would matter on a situational base, but I am not sure. Maybe someone can help clarify on this part.
Bunch of stuff on Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes
Just thought I would chime in and try to refresh my memory a bit. See how correct I am by our judging and helpful community :)
Wow, must have felt like not thinking:
ReplyDeleteLooking at d1 and d2 (similar except for one +/- change in the (r + (Sigma^2)/2) argument, but this does not matter with respect to Lim t->T, so I will juse use d1 and for all intensive purposes it is d2 as well.
D1 = [ln(S/K) + (r + (sigma^2)/2)*(T-t)]/ Sigma*[T-t]^(.5)
When we see lim t->T we get....
ln(S/K) / sigma* (lim t->T (T-t))
As the second term drops out.
Evaluating the denominator gives us a value approaching zero, so in other-words d1 approaches infinity (as anything divided by a value approaching zero).
So... when looking at the normal distribution part of the equation above, N(D1) as lim t->T is equal to one. As the Normal percentile of a number moving towards infinity will approach one.
This makes since, as it will leave the following when t=T in the original equation in my previous comment.
The Original equation of:
C(S,t) = N(d1)S - N(d2)K*e^(-r(T-t))
to a simplified at t=T
C(S) = S - K
Which leaves us with the value of the payout if S>K, or the walkaway option if S<K.
...
I got lazy on the first comment to stop...
I apologize for my incorrect spelling and dropped square root....
ReplyDeleteI was never one for editing and bloggers lack of user friendliness for comments fails me once again.
Good Night.... t-minus 15 hours till the new week starts...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis is a repost.
ReplyDeleteI've put together a Options graphing/training spreadsheet. It allows you to set up positions
Like buy 2 calls sell one put buy one future.
It runs in excel.
It requires that you enable scripts.
How to use it is in the readme file.
http://www.rasdoc.com/options/
I posted this a week a go and did not get a single comment, but the discussion of bs option pricing model in this thread is vary appropriate.
Did anyone see this before?
Did it work for you?
Was it useful?
@Dr. Jerome:
ReplyDelete"If my state approves silver as legal tender tender, can I pay off mortgages with it and not have to pay capital gains tax? Is silver only taxed by the Feds when you sell? Or will using it as money count as a sale?"
The IRS doesn't care what state law says, under federal law you owe tax on the difference between what you paid for your silver and the value of it on the day you used it to pay your mortgage or other bills. Same for all barter transactions. This is what Ron Paul would like to change with his Free Competition in Currencies bill, but I doubt that his colleagues will support him
Thanks for the spreadsheet, Paul. I've downloaded it and will explore it in the near future.
ReplyDelete@Eric - All of your chatter about sovereigns motivated me to pick one up over the weekend. Got an 1880 for $342. It was a good price, but it still shocked my system, as the last one I bought (2007) was $114.
Mister, I posted the spread sheet on 3/22/11 the dates in the example that loads were ok then, but now are a bit out of date.
ReplyDeleteSo make sure you change the example "view" date to be after "Today's date"
Paul
Ginger - I assume you understand it all now!
ReplyDeleteHonestly, Scott, math like that strikes me as an insane way to try to calculate the value of anything. It is not just that I don't understand it, it is using math (and maybe you will tell me this isn't math as you differentiated between math and algebra and addition the other day so let's say equations) to try to describe something that has so many variables that have human beings on the other side. Given that one of the variables is stock price, the math is of very limited utility it seems to me. I guess this is where economists get separated from their subjects, as they try to squeeze economic choices into unforgiving math.
Scott - don't get me wrong - I am not dismissing something because I don't understand it, it is that math is a self-referential descriptive language and while it approximates life it is not flexible and irrational like humans. If the market behaved sensibly we could all be rich. Maybe there is information in there that Ginger can use, but I am going to ask you to at least define your variables for the Arts majors out there.
Sometimes I am worried that your youthful exuberance will get you in trouble and I think maybe I just sensed why - you appear to think (as often does my more irascible sibling) that people will act logically once correctly informed. It shows in your hope for political campaigning, and while I do believe change is inevitable because the fiat system is doomed, I no longer believe that people will behave rationally even when it would be (as far as I can see) in their best interests. They don't in every day life, and they sure don't at the polls. I do not believe in nuance, don't get me wrong, au contraire, I am a firm believer in good and evil, right and wrong. I no longer believe that other people are simply misinformed and will come around once educated - it is too bad but there it is. From conservative to libertarian to conservative to it doesn't matter and I will always vote for the candidate that is most likely to result in smaller government and even those candidates will deliver bigger government.
But good morning and I think we could have a really interesting conversation about the meaning of math and its relevance to nature and physics and mankind. I am married to an engineer who studied engineering science at university and took some really strange math classes with imaginary numbers and complex variables in their course titles. I am no good at the actual math, but am not to shabby with its implications. And without getting into details (I have revealed way more about myself in these comments than I ever intended - such nice people, present company very much included) economists are surprisingly dear to my heart.
So sorry if I sound like I am after you, Scott, it is not that at all. It is the question of math and humanity and how they can interact when man is so irrational and math is logic.
I am just reading comments from yesterday evening.
ReplyDeleteCurtains,
Wow.. thank you again. You are so much over my head with your options knowledge. I have already read your posts twice and am going to have to 'take notes' and re-read to digest. :] ..I appreciate the thoughtful response, advice, words of caution. You are playing with much larger sums of money than I am and I can only hope to understand the futures trading the way that you do someday. If I were playing with the numbers you mentioned..I would definitely not be sleeping at night!....given my limited knowledge at this point. I am certainly being cautious and you and others here are helping me to make these baby steps for now. I thank you so much. There is a wealth of stuff for me to learn in just your above comments!!
I hope someone answers your Dec 40/44 call question on silver because my instinct is that silver will not have a problem attaining those levels by years end.. ..but I would love to read some ongoing conversation about this and what others are doing with longer term calls.
syk,
Those OTM oil/gas calls *seem* to me to be a good bet. I personally believe that gas/oil prices will head back to their 2008 highs by later this year or next. I must admit that it's a call I'm willing to place at least a small wager on. I know some here hate the NIA folks.. I'm not one of them. SO IF ANYONE HERE HATES THEM..FINE!.. I CAN NOT HATE THEM IF I WANT TO! lol. ..Anyway, They recently had a good question posted about what they see for oil prices in the near-longer term. If you look at the 3yr charts for some of the oil plays...and IF you believe the NIA could be right about their predictions.. then a few oil options calls may be a profitable thing to do. Of course.. the NIA could be wrong. So you and I have to do some more of our own DD. This is the Q/A ...just take it for what it's worth to you.. or skip altogether ..depending on your hatred level for the NIA :D
Q What is NIA's prediction for oil now that it has surpassed your original target price of $100 per barrel?
A In the year 2008, oil outperformed just about all other
commodities. Since then, oil has lagged behind most
commodities, especially gold. Oil is currently playing catch
up to gold.
The long-term average gold/oil ratio is 10. When oil shot up
to $147 per barrel in 2008, the gold/oil declined to an
artificially low level of 6. When oil prices tanked due to
forced liquidations of leveraged up hedge funds, many of
which went on to fail, the gold/oil ratio over swung to the
other direction, reaching 28 in early 2009.
The gold/oil ratio is now down to 13, which is where it
bottomed in mid-2009 after it saw its free fall. For the past
21 months, the ratio has been in a range of 13 to 17. In our
opinion, there will be some support here at 13, but the
support is unlikely to last for greater than 6 months. A
move back down to the historical average of 10 is likely to
occur within the next 6 to 12 months. If we are right, all
gold needs to do is breakout past $1,500 per ounce, and
sometime in either late-2011 or (most likely) early-2012, we
will see oil prices skyrocket past the 2008 all time high of
$147 per barrel.
Paul Breed,
ReplyDeleteI did not see your spreadsheet when you posted it earlier. I have just opened it up and will be looking at it more thoroughly later today... Thank You! ..I can use all the great tools I can find..:)
Scott,
Supposing that I am not as smart as my fifth...er fourth grader ....you can certainly have a high degree of certainty that I am not as smart as you. That math equation struck a chord of fear throughout my being. It made me sick to my stomach and I had to go take a Tylenol for my throbbing temples. Please.. PLEASE... don't ever post such a horrifically terrifying concept ever again.
A currency collapse ..an apocalypse.. a New World Order ..a hyperinflation.. ..any of that I can handle in comparison. That math equation feels like a black dark death to me.
:D
NO ....seriously .. ..I understood it.
Scottj,
ReplyDeleteOF COURSE....I'm just kidding around with you.. You know what I think of your abilities and character ..at such a young age. ;)
...Many many here benefit from your thoughts, ideas, suggestions. Keep up the great work!
Good morning xty!:)
Relating to silver doctors post on industrials demand. Here is a comprehensive 34 page report from the silver institute. link
ReplyDeleteAnd here is an older comprehensive report on the entire silver investment market from the silver institute that northeast bullion linked me to. link
Here is a list of free publications put out by www.silverinstitute.org that delve deep into the world of silver. link
What happened to the delivery issues at the Comex? I have been looking for some info but I no longer hear about these issues.
ReplyDeleteJohan: give it about two weeks.
ReplyDeletenew thread
Yesterday, my wife Susan sent me a link to a vid that brought smiles & then (believe it or not) some joyous tears to me. The song played in background is Hallelujah by Leonard Cohen, a most notable Cdn poet/singer.
ReplyDeleteThis time around is sung by Alexandra Burke, a finalist (I believe) from British talent contests. At the end of the "Hugs" vid a link to Ms Burke's vid shows up where she sings Hallelujah once again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=hN8CKwdosjE
This is a WOW WOW in my book & hope all Turdites enjoy this. What a voice!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=hN8CKwdosjE
Powerful! This starts out slowly but builds to a beautiful, touching ending.
Makes you wonder if something this simple could remove barriers,
Turd: my most sincere thanks for this site and all the worthwhile info/data you present.