Thursday, December 2, 2010

Another Quick Buck

Earlier this week, I posited that the dead cat bounce in the USDX had just about run its course and that it should top at about 81.50 on the Dec10 USDX. Amazingly, it hit 81.52 on Monday and then rolled over. I have a last of 80.17.

Here's the thing: Gold peaked and the dollar bottomed on the same day four weeks ago, November 3. The USDX then "rallied" (not really a rally, more like an appreciation vs the equally worthless euro) four and a half points. It went from 76.62 on 11/3 to 81.52 on 11/30. In that same time period, gold incredibly only declined from 1412 to today's 1398. If I'm right and the $ bounce is over, you can probably imagine which direction and how far gold and silver are about to go. See below. More later after the Comex close.



1:00 PM EST UPDATE: 
Gold is suddenly sinking fast. I saw a rumor that margin requirements were being raised...again, but I can't find anything to substantiate it. Maybe just more EE BS manipulation in an attempt to scare longs and derail momentum. If I hear something concrete, I will immediately post it. TF

My friend Cognitive Dissonance posted this earlier at ZH. Copied and pasted below for your viewing pleasure.

32 comments:

  1. Please don't forget to "consider" our advertisers. I just saw one for Lind-Waldock. I highly recommend their services.

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  2. "Tyler" is on it, too.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/blythe-masters-reminds-rico-club-she-hasnt-been-fired-yet-gold-chart-exhibits-thors-hammer-f

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  3. With no news or even rumors out there, my gut tells me that Blythe is trying to paint an "outside reversal day" on the daily chart. To pull this off, she needs a Comex close below 1383. In 15 minutes we'll know if she's successful.

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  4. Well, the good news is that she didn't make it. Its 1:30 and I've got 1390 on the Feb11. She tried this same stunt back on Tuesday. Didn't work then, either.

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  5. Where did you hear the rumor about margin requirements? I don't see any notices for today on the cme website.

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  6. This is typical action ahead of bad news for the dollar ... bad NFP numbers tomorrow with the buck dropping hard - and gold flying higher??!!?

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  7. Really looking forward to seeing the super massaged NFP numbers tomorrow.

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  8. The Allied forced successfully defended the Monkey attack!

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  9. Thanks for the awesome blog Turd. Long time ZH lurker and been following you for a spell now!

    P.S. For any Europeans out there I really recommend the Guernsey Mint (a quick google away - on iCrap sorry) Top guys to deal with.

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  10. Did Blythe also spook Wheat and Corn ?????

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  11. That's a good question, hammy. They both held in there right up till the last 10 minutes or so, from 2:00-2:15 EST. Crude has actually gotten stronger, however.
    Interestingly, if you go back and look, this is the third straight day the the EE has staged both morning and pre-close attacks. Getting desperate? Perhaps...if you believe Harvey.

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  12. For me it looks like they might try to bring gold lower either in asia and/or in europe ... because eventually tomorrow or over the weekend something lits a fire under PMs.
    Though just guessing.

    Also i have learned to take corrections in softs seriously. Also look the last time WTI peaked .. the next day PMs sold of.

    Just trying to read the trail ... not quite sure yet what to make out of it.

    Today I would watch the HUIs close like a hawk .. unfortunately 2 of my computer are striking since yesterday so i have no realtime data ... but especially the last few minutes are pretty important.

    Though agree that this highly likely is just shortterm stuff.

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  13. Mr. Turd, what are some key moves you would be looking for directly prior to, and maybe even during a price reversal? I know the last selloff began with the margin hike, and I was blindsided. So I have since tried to do more preparation. Even though it's pretty obvious by now that anything could happen in this market. Any comments would be greatly appreciated.

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  14. Though I have been wrong so often - so i don't want to argue with you Turd, just thoughts and what i noticed.
    Your advice is 100fold more worth than what i have to say.
    Me just a student ;)

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  15. Hello,

    I just added you under "Recommended Affiliates" on my blog which is also forecasting the end of keynesian economics. I hope you have been following Ron Paul because this will be an interesting time period indeed.

    Please contact me if you would ever like to chat, as I am doing this full time. Have you looked at junior mining companies? I believe their valuations are going to be 400-600% to current levels of silver (they crashed and never came back)....

    Once the physical gold and silver rush is on, these juniors are going to be the biggest money makers out there!!

    http://thehardrightedge.com

    -
    Mr Ferguson, I would love to chat!
    -
    Scott J

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  16. Chris: Because the PMs are in long-term bull markets, selloffs can only be short to medium term in nature, rarely exceeding an 8-10% drop. So, watch the short-term charts for clues. The daily chart works but if you have access to 240-minute, 120-minute or hourly, they can be particularly helpful, too. A word of warning, however: the shorter term chart you use, the higher likelihood you have of being wrong.

    Right now, everything is hunkydory until/unless we move down through 1375. Even there, I wouldn't start to get nervous unless we move through 1355. Even then, I wouldn't get completely out unless we moved through the lows of two weeks ago, near 1330.
    I hope that helps.

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  17. Thank you, Scott.
    I listed the juniors that I own the other night in this post:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/this-might-take-minute.html

    Feel free to contact me anytime at tfmetalsreport@gmail.com

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  18. Are we still looking at silver at 31-33 at or around Dec 7th? or has that changed a bit?

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  19. RmC: I'd like to think so. Still 6 trading days left and $29B in POMO to come over that period. Tomorrow is a big day, however. The BLS BS report will go a long way toward determining if we get there.

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  20. When Blyth attacks, exactly what is she doing to drive the price down?

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  21. igive: The EE either issues brand new paper silver contracts and sells them outright in a "sell" order or they bundle together many client orders and dump them, all at once, to overwhelm the bid side of the market.
    Sorry that's such a brief explanation but I'm in a big hurry. Please remind me top follow up on this question for you some other time.

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  22. I for one applaud their efforts. The slower this train wreck progresses, the easier it is for savers to convert FRN's to metal. Five years from now, that will be impossible. Ninety nine percent of the populace cannot differentiate between currency and money.

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  23. I am so with you i1. I need MORE time. :[

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  24. Full frontal assault is underway.

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  25. Well today I received my silver ounces I ordered from First Majestic. Very nice coins, very fast shipment, good customer service, etc. but some of the coins came in weighting less than 31.1 grams. Very dissapointed. Anybody else had the same problem?

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  26. Hey Bubbles,

    I had a similar problem with Silver coins, including Eagles. I find their weight to vary by up to half a gram, but generally over.

    I understand that the production process for silver coins, is less easy than for gold, and being a cheaper metal, has less need for precision.

    Mebbee here in the UK we just get the rejects, I dunno.

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  27. I've been impressed, but not surprised, by the cartel's power today. They allowed the silver price to reach 29.00 and cap it there for quite a while, a kind of mexican stand-off, before casually swatting it back down. It almost seemed a theatrical, taunting act, to the bulls like us; they are blowing raspberries right back at us.

    I sooooo want gold and silver to do a moonshot. But I think that hopes of $1500 this year, and Jim Sinclair's 1650 (by 12th Jan?) need to be rescheduled.

    POMO & the Euro angst, isn't stronger than the momentum & Euro crisis of spring 2010. The cartel overwhelmed that too. Even while retreating on the price, they are doing a controlled retreat, and to an agenda that might differ from our expectation.

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  28. In my humble opinion:

    Another reason to scale back our short term expectations is to remind ourselves that unless the Buyers of size seek, as Jim Willie suggests, to break the comex, then the buyers of size are accumulators like us, and aren't done buying. They likely do not seek to spike the price upwards; they would rather buy with abandon, and are cross with Blythe for retreating.

    As accumulators, they will pause when their actions in concert with the other buyers, spikes the price. They need Blythe to be their sap, to dutifully press the price back down, so they can continue to procure elsewhere at the depressed comex price. They will squeeze the Comex on deliveries, for as much as they think that the comex can procure, without breaking the comex, and will roll forward the rest of their options.

    The value of the comex to them is both as one of many sources of supply, but principally as the price rigger for all sources.

    The moonshot will come when the buyers of size start to race each other. That cannot be predicted by TA, as we all agree. There will then be dislocation in the paper market, and there may well be price confusion for a while. We will all get excited and stressed at the same time.

    But I would rank POMO as the least important factor in PM prices. The continuation or breakdown of collusion between the buyers of size, is to my mind the key driver both of timing, and of scale. The cartel is essentially just reactive, in spite of being backed by and agents of the Fed.

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  29. Byzantium,
    I concur with your humble opinion. And would add this viewpoint (not my original work, just joining the dots from people smarter than me):

    Let's assume we agree that the buyers of size are the world's 2 most populous countries
    (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population) and their agents. I think we'd also agree that the buyers are buying PMs as stores of value, not as simple commodities (though with silver there are probably dual purposes: store of value and industrial metal).

    Now, the interesting proposition is that, concurrently, such countries (or maybe just the biggest one) is also supressing the value of JPY vs the commodity currencies. They are doing so because a falling JPY will mean more and more speculative inflows (and therefore price increases) in basic commodities. Inflation, particularly in food, threatens the very existence of the political class in that country.

    Take a look at this view from a very smart analyst, highlighting the strange behaviour of ZARJPY:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/239711-rand-suggests-the-yen-is-in-trouble

    Also check his earlier views generally in relation to JPY vs commodity currencies:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/238915-emerging-market-currencies-ready-to-break-out-against-the-yen

    In conclusion, happy to stay long PMs and short JPY vs commodity currencies.

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  30. agaupm.com had a nice little article trying to decipher the COMEX action. He thinks there are probably 3 types of buyers and describes his belief on why >80% of contracts rolled "after" putting the fiat on the table.

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  31. Turd, any chance of providing links on your blog to other sites you deem worthy of our attention?

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  32. Hi GG. I concur right back at you, so many dots that need connecting, but I wish I knew which dots. Hey, not GG as in Gordon Gecko?

    Legerde, excellent link; the cartel is relatively the uncomplicated actor on the stage. We know what they want, we just don't know how much ammo is left, which sneaky tricks are yet to be revealed etc.

    The buyers are more diverse and more mysterious; we are speculating a lot more about them, and the link you provide is very useful.

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