Once In A Lifetime

First up, another obligatory clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-io-kZKl_BI

Why, you ask? What once-in-a-lifetime event has occurred?
Feb11 gold closed today at $1420. The previous high daily close was $1416.10 on 12/6. With today's close, 12/31/10 goes down in history as marking in gold a new daily, weekly, monthly and annual high. That's the Full Monty! The Superfecta! A New High Extravaganza! The odds of this occurring once in your lifetime are prohibitive. The odds of it happening again are astronomical! Savor this moment and be happy your name isn't Blythe.

Please do not take this as gloating but The Turd has gotten everything to line up almost exactly as planned and forecast. First, we've been watching the March11 USDX all week as an "umbrella" pattern was clearly forming and indicating a drop back to the lows of two weeks ago. As recently as Wednesday, the USDX was at 80.50 and few would have thought a major dip was coming. But the umbrella spoke otherwise! Please review this post from last evening. The USDX chart is the fourth one down:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/blythe-hits-sauce.html
I predicted 79.20 and the actual low today was 79.02 before consolidating and bouncing to the current level of 79.30 or so.  Next, a close below 79.15 means 78.50 is coming in short order and, after that, 77.50. Of course, the sinking $ only adds further impetus to the PM trade.

Onto the metals. I first pointed out that something was brewing last Friday after I examined the weekly charts. For a refresher, please take a moment to go back and read this. It's very important:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/interesting-weekly-charts.html
Week 1 of the next breakout in silver was, in fact, this week. Week 1 of the new breakout in gold is next week. All right on schedule. Its almost as if The Turd has become the new Blythe. Planning and controlling anything.
Next up, please review this post, too. This was from last Tuesday:

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2010

Silver Near $30

A weakening dollar overnight has given us quite the rally in our precious metals. As noted in the last post, I expect the dollar to explore the lower end of its recent range and this should give additional support to the metals. Again, I'm hoping both metals can trade this week back up toward their most recent intraday highs of 1415-20 and 30.25-50. This will set the stage for the new year blastoff of the next UP leg.

In the short term, I offer you these three charts for some perspective on the silver market. Note that, post-1980, silver has not closed above $30. In fact, the closing highs from three weeks ago are 29.74 and 29.78. These are the first levels to watch. As you can imagine, a close above $30 will really get the algo machines humming, particularly if we can finish the week there.

So, anyway, its New Year's Eve. Time to celebrate the close of one year and ring in a new one. As stated before, I expect 2011 to be a rough, mean year, particularly for anyone without a job or otherwise under-employed and/or on public assistance. The greedy, arrogant fools that run our government and banking systems have condemned all of us to a future of misery and loss. All of that is, however, a topic for another day. For now, kick back, relax and maybe even enjoy a few adult beverages. We sit tonight on the cusp of the next major UP move in the precious metals and next week promises to be great fun. Happy New Year!! TF


P.S. This is certainly interesting:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scotiamocatta-sells-out-silver-bars

Hangin Tough

10:45 UPDATE:
Been talking a lot this week about hitting the superfecta in silver (day, week, month, annual close). With this current spike in price, we now have a legitimate shot at a superfecta in gold, too. The all-time closing high in Feb11 gold is $1416.10 on 12/6/10. I have a last of $1418.40. Look out!

11:40 UPDATE:
Keep watching that Mar11 USDX. The recent intra-day low was 79.15 on 12/14. A close below there would indicate 78.50 is next.

The title means this, of course, is obligatory:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZusIOLDRs8

OK, once you've re-swallowed the puke that was in your mouth, let's move on. Our PMs are hangin tough!
As predicted for the past three days or so, the dollar completed its rollover last night. Here's a reprint of last night's chart:

Almost on cue, the USDX shed about 0.25 and has reached a bottom, so far, of 79.27. As you might imagine, the dollar weakness has led to PM strength and has pre-empted any Evil Empire raids. Again, I can't stress enough the importance of closing today at new daily, weekly, monthly and annual (post-1980) highs. Blythe and her monkeys obviously know this, too, so be alert today for any and all dirty tricks.

Lastly, I haven't taken the time to read this yet but I can assure you ahead of time that it is extremely valuable and a must read. This Egon dude has been spot on for years. In fact, The Turd considers him a "brother from another mother". Read it. Print it. Save it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/matterhorn-closes-year-style-hyperinflation-will-drive-gold-
unthinkable-heights

Metals still looking good as I close. Keep your fingers crossed. Out.

Blythe Hits The Sauce

Somewhere, on the upper East Side, Blythe is drowning her sorrows...but her sorrows have learned to swim. After desperately trying to suppress and raid the precious metals today, Blythe must be almost disconsolate watching tonight's action. Take a look at a 3-minute gold chart. Note the steady rise from the 6:00 EST open until this moment:

Not to be outdone, our friend silver is currently trading at a level last seen at 10:00 am, about 30.65.

Of greater significance, check out this 4-hour March11 silver chart. It sure looks like we are ready to blast higher. Blythe had better not have given the monkeys an early weekend because without their interference tomorrow, silver is poised to spring past $31.

Finally, one last chart update of our March USDX. It looks like one last leg down tonight, toward 79.20 before consolidation, a bounce and then a new move lower.

That's it for now. Let's hope the BoS continue to bury Blythe overnight. A close above 30 tomorrow would be huge. Above $31...well, let's not get carried away...yet. Turd out.

Coincidence?

The PMs held in well overnight. Silver almost made it to $31, reaching a high of $30.93 before slowing.

You most likely noticed the same old early morning EE nonsense today. You may have thought, "gee, that looks familiar", and you'd have been right. As a refresher, here's the chart from yesterday. Note the exact time of the raids:

Now, here's the same chart for today:

Ole Turd, the crazy conspiracy theorist. Take a long look at these charts and YOU DECIDE if there is an epic battle taking place between the Evil Empire and the BoS.

Our U.S. dollar continues to roll over. Here's the updated version of the chart we've been following:

We'll see what happens as we go through the day. Crude is off almost $1 so that may inspire Blythe to be more aggressive than yesterday. However, as long as the USDX keeps drifting lower, she's going to have a hard time creating much downside momentum.

10:30 UPDATE:

The metals are hanging in there but Blythe has now shown that she's not going to give up so easy today. Think about it...if she isn't successful in raiding today and/or tomorrow, silver will end the week, the month and the year over $30. In Blythe's mind, this simply cannot be allowed.

Volatility is about to increase. Let's hope the BoS are waiting to stick it right up her....

12:15 UPDATE:

Well, its safe to say that the raid is on. The question becomes: when will the BoS join the battle. I still suspect that the line will ultimately be drawn at $30. NO WAY, NO HOW Blythe voluntarily allows a close tomorrow over $30.

Have a great day! TF

More Mustard Gas

Our metals have continued to hang in there and actually gain ground so far in the overnight/Asian session. As I type, Mar11 silver is 30.65 and Feb gold is 1414. A couple quick nuggets I found from earlier:

First, read this blog post from Eric King. Eric interviewed James Turk today and posted a few highlights:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/29_James_Turk_-_Gold_%26_Silver_Shorts_are_Losing_Control.html

Second, you have to watch this quick video from CNBC. The Great Peter Schiff was interviewed by the FOAD earlier today. Peter makes almost every point you've heard The Turd make in this blog ad nauseam over the past six weeks. The FOAD is dumbfounded and incredulous. He's a perfect example of the status quo, Keynesian-stupor market enthusiast. And fools like the FOAD are the first ones to claim that gold has "reached a top" or is "in a bubble". What a jackass.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1714673682&play=1

Lastly, here's your latest USDX 120-minute chart. The "umbrella" still contains it.
Sleep well and dream of what your PMs might do tomorrow if the USDX trades down near 79 :) Turd out.

Stronger Than Mustard Gas

Both of our metals performed admirably today. I must say that I am very surprised that the EE was unable or unwilling to mount a successful raid today. Feel free to make any inference you'd like as to why they chose not to act. Personally, I feel that it only increases the likelihood of a raid tomorrow or Friday. Keep you gameface on!

I've always promised you full disclosure on my trades. I did not get any fills today. The market makers are pumping premium into the out-of-the-money silver calls faster than they are putting it into the in-the-money calls. Again, read into that what you will. At any rate, I stand currently with the exact same list of positions I've had for weeks. I'll be watching the action very closely overnight and tomorrow, however, as I still feel a tradable raid is imminent.

I'll close for now with these three charts. First, an 8-hour gold chart. I mistakenly wrote "daily" on it. This chart takes us back over the past 10 weeks or so. Looks very nice!

Next, here's a picture of today's action in silver. Note the aggressive buying of each dip. Blythe has to look at this and want to barf.

Lastly, here's an updated version of the 2-hour March11 USDX I've been posting this week. Note that we are still in the "umbrella". A break of 79.80 would almost certainly send us to near 79.

Gotta go! More later. TF

The FUBMs Continue

A very quick FUBM reversal in silver this morning has taken us back up near the 30.50 level as I type.
The Forces of Evil raided silver at precisely 8:20 EST, taking $0.11 out of the price in under a minute. As usual, they sat back and watched for five minutes and then struck again at 8:25, taking out another $0.11 in about 30 seconds. Not surprisingly, our BoS seemed to be waiting to counter-attack and silver has since rebounded. Here's a pretty little picture of another, beautiful FUBM formation:

As stated yesterday, I'll be very interested to see how the EE reacts if March11 silver begins to encroach upon the old intraday high of 30.75. I simply can't imagine that Blythe will allow silver to blast right through to new highs. Maybe the BoS is waiting to take the Death Star by storm, simply overwhelm them and drive price over 31. They could turn the tables on the EE by doing this as new highs heading into the new trading year would certainly trip a lot of buy-side algos. It would be the same principle as the EE has used all these years to screw the longs. This time, however, the move would be to the UPside and it would screw all the shorts. Hey...a guy can dream, can't he?

Let's watch the action today. If the March11 USDX can move back down through 80.40, it would certainly help. Watch crude, too. I'd like to see it hang in there and consolidate above $91.

More later.

Take Some Profits?

11:15 EST UPDATE:
I normally would craft a completely new post but I feel strongly about the info below from earlier so I want to leave it up all night for our Far East readers.
Not much happening this evening. The metals are steady...like everything else...about what you'd expect for a no-news, 12/28 evening.
I did want to post a USDX chart, however. With gold and silver having such huge moves today, one would have expected that the dollar had sold off. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Frankly, this chart makes me even more confident that the EE will emerge tomorrow morning with some fresh paper shorts.
Have a great evening. More in the morning. Turd out.

____________________________________________________


What a great day! Silver has closed above $30 for the first time since the 1980 peak. We should all be excited as the next UP leg has clearly begun, as predicted last week.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/interesting-weekly-charts.html

Now, let's see if we've learned anything over these past few weeks together.
Do you remember this? It is essential that you take a moment to re-read this post:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

Here is a reprint of the gold chart from that post:

Here is the same chart, updated and current:

With that in mind, here's what we know right now:
1) Silver exploded to the upside, in line with the expectations from last week, on a nice short-covering rally. This next UP leg should carry us to the $32.50-33.00 area over the next couple of weeks.
2) Silver has made a new closing high but not a new intra-day high, That number is 30.75.
3) The Evil Empire does not like to raid the PMs on Tuesdays as the COT survey is always basis the Tuesday close.
4) The EE, in their recent, aggressive efforts to cap price for 6 straight days, obviously had no interest in adding to their already substantial short positions today. They may even have covered some.
5) The EE will, most likely, raid tomorrow and try to drive price back down under $30.

So what do we do next? Personally, The Turd will try to lighten some positions here, either later today or at the open tomorrow. If the recent pattern holds (and why wouldn't it?), silver will probably continue to rally up near the old intra-day high overnight and early tomorrow. The EE will then commence their raids and price will probably fall back to the $29.50 area. Remember this?
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/hi-yo-silver.html
It sure looks like the BoS are putting up support lines at $1.50 increments and the next level is $29.50.

Now, of course, I could be wrong, so I would caution you against completely blowing out any position. There is nothing worse than being out and watching the market continue higher. If you are holding physical long-term, just sit back and watch to see if this plays out. If, however, you want to try to trade this thing like me, study all this information carefully. Consider selling a little when silver gets above 30.50 and look to buy back when it dips toward 29.50.

Lastly, please read this from Trader Dan. Very important info:
http://jsmineset.com/2010/12/28/trader-dan-comments-on-soaring-commodity-prices-and-plunging-bond-prices/

That's it for now. Please don't forget to visit our "sponsors" on our way out.
More later. TF

Silver Near $30

A weakening dollar overnight has given us quite the rally in our precious metals. As noted in the last post, I expect the dollar to explore the lower end of its recent range and this should give additional support to the metals. Again, I'm hoping both metals can trade this week back up toward their most recent intraday highs of 1415-20 and 30.25-50. This will set the stage for the new year blastoff of the next UP leg.

In the short term, I offer you these three charts for some perspective on the silver market. Note that, post-1980, silver has not closed above $30. In fact, the closing highs from three weeks ago are 29.74 and 29.78. These are the first levels to watch. As you can imagine, a close above $30 will really get the algo machines humming, particularly if we can finish the week there.

I'm going to be somewhat tied up today as I am opening another business this week. You can bet that I'll be keeping a close eye on things, however, and I'll check in again if conditions warrant.
Have a great day!

Funny Ha-Ha or Funny Strange?

Aren't the markets funny?
Seriously, wasn't it just 27 hours ago that the Chicom rate hike was supposed to rally the dollar and depress PM prices? Didn't a brainless computer dump some Feb11 gold at $1373 or so just last evening?
Here we are, one day later, and the USDX is smashing down through support and the metals are rallying. As I type, Feb11 gold is 1391 and March11 silver is 29.50. Wow! What a difference a day makes!
Take a look at this chart of the USDX:

It certainly looks now like we're headed back down to the bottom of thew recent range, down near 79.80 eventually. What needs to be watched, however, is that upward-sloping trend line I've drawn. A move through there and we will see another full point down day. You all are well-schooled enough to understand how a move like that will impact PM prices.

Last week, you'll recall that both metals ran into some price-capping resistance courtesy of Blythe and her monkeys. Expect the same this week, too, even with the holidays and the big east coast blizzard. Gold would need to move through 1393 and silver needs to best 29.60 before we can start getting excited. You can rightly assume that, as we approach those levels overnight or tomorrow morning, the EE will be waiting with all the fresh paper metal worthless fiat can buy.

The key will be what happens next. Will we paint another FUBM and blow right on through? Maybe, we'll see. But whether we blow through tonight, tomorrow or Wednesday doesn't really matter. As we discussed last evening, recent timing would suggest that the start of the next major UP leg in both metals is imminent, no later than next week. Blythe can lie, cheat, cajole and steal to her heart's content but the BoS is determined to break her and her position is untenable. She will lose.

Finally, Eric King posted a blurb on Richard Russell's gold opinion tonight. You'll enjoy it. Turd out.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/27_Richard_Russell_-_We_Will_Have_an_Upside_Explosion_in_Gold.html

Quiet Monday

4:30 EST update:
As expected a very quiet day in the metals. Expect the majority of the time this week to be the same.
Just for fun, check Santa. He decided to post some of my correspondence with Trader Dan today.
http://jsmineset.com/2010/12/27/jims-mailbox-609/
More later if anything interesting develops.



If anyone is out there...and, from the looks of things, many are not...we have a very quiet, holiday week Monday on our hands. I would expect that any rallies in the PMs will be met by selling and any selloffs will be met by dip buying. Leaving us right about where we are.

For anyone interested, I found this article this morning from the Great Douchebag, Paul Krugman. The Nobel Laureate refutes my theory of impending inflation. I'm not going to sit here and argue with him, point by point, I'll leave that up to you as you read it. Just keep in mind that The Great Douchebag has been wrong about almost everything for years. No reason to start believing him now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=3&ref=opinion

I'll be here keeping an eye on things...if I can stay awake. Fortunately, there's a football game at 5:00 EST. Its just another in the long list of lousy bowl games but it certainly promises to be more exciting than our PM markets today.

One more thing, I keep mentioning the ongoing drought in the "winter wheat belt". Here's a picture of what I'm watching. Just think of what food inflation may look like if we have significant crop failure next year, too. Yikes!

True Grit

Just got back from the movies with Mrs. Ferguson. Saw "True Grit". It was OK. Reasonably entertaining. Just glad I live in the 21st century and not the 19th.

The Real True Grit is once again being shown by our Buyer(s) of Size. Just like every other selloff of the past fortnight, our friends have stepped in to stem the tide and reverse the action. We'll go ahead and call this another FUBM formation but, in reality, I don't think Blythe had much to do with this one.

This is more of a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event. Rumors of a second Chicom rate hike have been prevalent for about the last month. Once the hike was announced over the weekend, you knew the PMs would open lower tonight as IBM has yet to create an algo-running hard drive that actually has artificial intelligence. The machines loaded the offer side at the open and, at one point, we were about $9 lower. As it stands now, we are back in the green at $1384.40, up about $4.

We'll just have to wait to see what tomorrow brings. I'll bet that Blythe tries another raid sometime between 8:00 and 9:15 EST, hoping to scare off some weak hands. Hasn't worked for a while and I wouldn't expect it to work tomorrow, either. As mentioned earlier, those weekly charts suggest the next up leg is imminent, either this week or next. I'm leaning toward next week for the big breakout UP but that doesn't mean we can't trade up toward the top of the range this week and I suspect we will. Let's see if we can get a positive close tomorrow in spite of the almost certain EE morning shenanigans. If we can, and with the "scawy chinese intewest wate" stuff behind us, we'll be set up for a very good week.

Turd night night.

A Couple Items

First up, take 10 minutes to listen to Trader Dan be interviewed buy Eric King. Dan makes all of the points The Turd would make if The Turd were the interviewee. Well worth your time to listen:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/12/24_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html

As we enter another holiday-shortened week, I keep thinking about these two charts. I posted them back on Thursday and they've been on my mind all weekend. I expect this week to be mostly quiet. Some rallies, some selloffs but, all-in-all, not too exciting. These charts tell me, however, that both of our metals are poised to blast off when the calendar flips to 2011. The first two weeks look to be powerful, UP weeks. I'll be looking to buy any dips this week as I add to positions that will benefit from the coming rally.
Anyway, here are the charts again for you to review.

I'll try to update agin later this evening.

Silvergoldsilver Strikes Again

Its Christmas night in the US and all is well.
Well, not really. We've got a lot of problems and 2011 promises to be a very tough year. However, it is Christmas, so we might as well have a few laughs while we can.
The folks at silvergoldsiler.com have struck again. You may recall that, a few weeks back, their first video became an internet sensation. If you need a refresher or if you missed it, here's a link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI&feature=player_embedded

Now on to video #2 which explains backwardation, fractional bullion banking and global gold fraud, all in about 6 minutes. Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E&feature=player_embedded

Look, I know I'm just The Turd. A guy with a keyboard banging out posts on an anonymous blog. All I can tell you is that I firmly believe, with 100% of my heart, mind and soul, that this stuff is accurate and correct. Do what you will with the information but don't ever say that you weren't warned.

More tomorrow once things open in NY. Merry Christmas.

p.s. For an encore, watch this one, too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k&feature=related

Absolute Advice (Re-Post)

First of all, I'd like to wish everyone a Happy Ramahannakwanzmas. More specific, since is is 12/24, Merry Christmas to all. Thank you everyone for making this site so much fun. It is your input, not mine, that is causing this site to grow so quickly. I am amazed every day by the quality and friendliness of the comments. We are here, "along the watchtower", to help each other and, more importantly, educate others regarding the perilous times in which we live. Let's keep it going!

To that end, I wish you all luck in dealing with family and friends these next few days. If you manage to win any converts, please direct them to our "glossary" before they get started. It may make the adjustment to Turd's World a little bit easier:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

Lastly, I banged out this little missive back on the day before Thanksgiving. It's probably may favorite post to date but, since its now buried amongst the other 100 posts we've made and since its still the holiday season, I thought I'd take the liberty of re-posting it here today. Again, from the Fergusons to you and yours: All the best this holiday season! Be safe and have fun. Turd out.

Absolute Advice For Relatives

If you're like The Turd, you will most likely get peppered tomorrow with questions from pseudo-intellectual relatives regarding the current world/market environment. Your over-educated yet under-informed cousin or brother-in-law will seek out your current "wisdom" on investing, politics, etc. He or she will then feign interest while you speak but you will feel certain that, in the end, they just don't "get it" as your absolute conviction overwhelms their status quo mindset. You could probably talk for hours about the failure of Keynesianism, Quantitative Easing, the criminal political class, the fallacy of TBTF, POMO and the PDs, the infallibility of gold, etc...but why even try? Your cousin's husband doesn't understand any of this anyway and your show of intellect will only make him feel threatened. He'll quickly tune you out and run off to the family room to watch the Cowboys.

So what do you talk about tomorrow when someone asks? What kind of simple advice can give someone to prepare them for what is certain to be a very challenging year ahead? I plan to dial it back a bit and talk about one thing...inflation. And not just any old, run-of-the mill 3% inflation but serious inflation. I'm talking 20-30% inflation. Milk to $5/gallon kind of stuff. That is what's coming and its a topic most folks can actually get their arms around. Even the fuzzy-headed new boyfriend of your divorcee sister understands inflation and he might even be able to understand why its coming if you explain it well. (This is a chance for you to show off some of your worldly knowledge, too.)

Most folks with a high school-level understanding of economics (this includes your Fed governors) only understand and recognize demand-pull inflation. This is the classic demand side, Phillips Curve inflation that says rising wages, employment and wealth cause economic expansion which leads to more money chasing a static amount of goods. New, excess demand "pulls" prices up and the result is price inflation. Pretty simple stuff. What is coming in 2011, however, is the forgotten beast of cost-push inflation. This type of price inflation is caused by producers and merchants being forced to pass along through higher prices the rising cost of inputs to their products. Consumers, particularly the lower-and-middle income, bear the brunt of the pain.  Your income isn't rising to keep pace with rising expenses and you get squeezed. Hard. And its not luxury items that are going up in price, its the staples. Bread, milk, gasoline, clothes, eggs, meat...the basics that no one can realistically live without. It's going to hurt and 2011 is going to be a mean year.

Why will input costs go up? Simple, they are all dollar-dominated and with our Fed now engaging in their final policy option, "QE to Infinity", all dollar-dominated assets are going up in price. Significantly. Your crazy uncle Henry may never take your advice to sell his stocks and buy precious metals but he just might take your advice to stock up now on essentials, before the prices skyrocket. Tell him that if he's going out to buy a new pair of pants, he should buy two. Tell your sister that instead of just buying her kids' winter coats for this year, she should buy coats for next year, too. Tell your cousin that instead of buying groceries every week to, instead, buy a whole dressed-out cow and put it in the freezer along with all the other dried and canned goods she can store.

Still, most crazy relatives won't listen but at least, come next Christmas, they'll remember that you were right. One down side, however. Because you'll end up being the only member of the family that will have prepared and, most likely, the only one with affordable food to eat, you'll probably have to host everyone at your house next Christmas. Oh well, there's a cure for that, too. Wine. Lots and lots of wine. Keep a couple of good Pinots on reserve and you'll be able to handle just about anybody.

Interesting Weekly Charts

First, a little back-patting.
I wrote this at 9:20 EST while fighting a pounding, red-wine induced headache.
"All I can say is "whatever". There's almost a kind of arbitrage that will now take place as we go through the morning. Since the EE has artificially depressed price, you'll most likely see prices drift higher going forward. If I had to guess, we'll probably finish at about $1380 and $29.25."  -- actual closes of 1380.30 & 29.34

Again, The Turd is not some sort of soothsayer or witch. The Turd simply recognizes that the PM "markets" are not really markets at all. They are the dominion of The Evil Empire. Lately, the EE has been countered by an equally powerful Buyer(s) of Size. Once you accept that these two forces are the primary drivers of price, predicting the future becomes quite simple.  For a refresher, review this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/turds-crystal-ball.html

OK, now take a look at these three, very interesting charts. First up, gold:

Let's not make this too complicated. For the past 2+ years, gold has moved up in segments. Each segment establishes a new floor roughly $150 higher in price and a corresponding consolidation phase typically lasts about three months. The current consolidation began in early October. Hmmm...what is three months from early October? Early January, of course! This chart would indicate that a new up segment is about to begin next week or early in January with a price target of $1550-1600.

Next up, take a look at the weekly silver chart:

This is quite telling, too. Note that, since the BoS emerged in late August, silver has also moved up in stages. After an initial run from $19 to $23, silver has had a pattern up sharp price increases, followed by three-week consolidations. The latest peak was either two or three weeks ago so, history would suggest that we are about to blast off again, either next week or the first week of January. Funny how this coincides with gold, too. Hmmm. At any rate, when the next move starts, I have a target of $32.50-33.

Now, here's the really interesting chart, Feb11 crude oil.

Selfishly, a breakout in crude would, of course, be beneficial for the PMs as "the rising tide lifts all boats". However, rising crude is an absolute killer for the global economy and will bring upon us, in a much sooner fashion, the brutal super-inflation that we've all been expecting. Breaking out through $90 and following through today to close at $91.40 is bad enough. Next, if we move through 92 and 94 we're at least going to $100 and from there, what, $115? Yikes! For now, this is where the action is and I recommend you follow it very closely next week.

I leave you tonight with another selection from the Grooveyard of Forgotten Favorites. This may be of particular interest to our Canadian readers but all should enjoy it. Have a great evening! Turd out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2oPio60mK4

A Beautiful Thing

This might be one of my favorite posts yet.

Before we get to the chart, I must say how wonderfully gratifying this is. If you've been messing around with PMs as long as Turd has, you'll feel the same way. For as long as I can recall, Blythe, her monkeys and the rest of the EE have periodically raided the gold and silver pits in order to restrain price. Historically, they would simply raid, set off a bunch of stops and then let Mother Nature take over. The cascading, waterfall-like selling would so thoroughly discourage even the strongest of longs that the PMs would take months to regroup and recoup. HAHAHAHAHA! NOT ANYMORE! 
Behold one of the prettiest things I have seen in a while, the March11 silver hourly chart:

Words cannot adequately describe how wonderful this chart is and, conversely, how sickening it must seem to the EE. They've tried their old shenanigans six days of the past seven. They've taken almost THREE WHOLE DOLLARS out of the price of silver and it still won't collapse. In fact, our dear friends, the BoS, have actually bought silver all the way back up to where we started. I can't emphasize enough how unprecedented this is. Truly amazing and wonderful.

Its time for lunch so I have to stop for now but I intend a more comprehensive weekend/holiday wrap-up for later today. In the meantime, I leave you with this little ditty of holiday cheer:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/115716/saturday-night-live-seasons-greeting-from-tarzan-tonto-and-frankenstein

Mornings With Blythe

Well, nothing that has taken place this morning should come as a surprise to regular visitors to Turd's World. As mentioned yesterday, Blythe did indeed attack early this morning, early enough that she could "call it a day" before 9:00 am and head out for some last-minute shopping. If you think I'm joking, consider that, as I type, crude oil is up 0.02, the grains were unchanged overnight, the dollar and the stock market are flat yet gold is down $12.70 and silver is down 0.32. Its so utterly predictable that I must admit I find myself chuckling at the absurdity of it all. Here's what it looks like, in visual form:

All I can say is "whatever". There's almost a kind of arbitrage that will now take place as we go through the morning. Since the EE has artificially depressed price, you'll most likely see prices drift higher going forward. If I had to guess, we'll probably finish at about $1380 and $29.25.

Lastly, Trader Dan has again written a terrific piece on the demons at the Federal Reserve and the long-term painful effects their foolish policies are going to have on regular, everyday folks. As you know, that's a major theme of this blog, too, so I implore you to take time to read this today:
http://jsmineset.com/2010/12/22/trader-dan-comments-on-todays-commodity-market-action/

I'll keep an eye on things and update again later.

Wednesday Wrap-Up

All in all a pretty quiet day today, as you'd expect for December 22nd. Absent any news, tomorrow will be even more quiet and with a tighter range. Of course, we've all grown to expect the worst from Blythe and The Monkeys so don't be surprised if she stages another early morning raid tomorrow. She could whack $10 out of gold and still make it to Macy's before 10:00 for some last-minute shopping. If you think I'm kidding, you obviously haven't been hanging around this blog very long. Expecting Blythe to show a little decorum and not blast away two days before Christmas only makes a raid more likely. Just because we are all dug into similar trenches, don't expect a ceasefire. The likelihood of an "All Quiet on The Golden Front" lovefest is pretty remote.

Here's a picture of our quiet gold market today:

Silver looks almost identical:

The only real interesting development today was the possible breakout in crude oil. Looky here:

Today's close above $90 is significant. IF we get a close soon above the intraday high of 12/7 at 91.17, we've got trouble in River City. Not for us PM bulls but for the other 99.98% of the general population. In conjunction with all the other rising input costs, rising energy confirms that price inflation...serious price inflation...is just around the corner in 2011.
When I sit back for a moment and consider the truly perilous, disastrous situation the blasted fools at The Fed have put us in, I get extraordinarily pissed off and you should, too. These MFers have set us up for tremendous hardship and civil strife, perhaps even civil unrest, all in the name of endless money-printing and TBTF banks and government services. 2011 is going to be a very hard, very mean year. Please prepare now. Tell all your friends, too.

On that happy note, I'll sign off for now. The Fergusons have some friends in town for a little  pre-holiday cheer so I most likely won't check in again until after I see Harvey's nightly update. I'll probably be more than a little "in the bag" by then, if you get my drift, so in advance, I must ask that you please excuse any misspellings, poor grammar or assorted expletives you find in my late evening update. Turd out.

Move Along, Please. Nothing To See Here.

At least that's what The Fed and their sycophant mouthpieces in the media would have you believe. Please take a moment to ensure we are on the same page as this is critical to understand. If "official" US government statistics were to "officially" show the true rate of inflation, there is no possible way the debt and deficit could be financed at 3%. No Way! Inflation must be under-reported or the entire scheme collapses from it's own weight. The stated inflation rate is the single most important statistic in prolonging the status quo. Rates must be kept low, at all cost.


So, as I sit here this morning in my t-shirt and jeans, I started thinking about this:

I took a bite of banana bread and, as I chewed, I began to ponder this:

I washed that bread down with a sip of coffee and it led me to this:

Not good. The US government can lie and manipulate all it wants but these facts are what they are. Facts. You feel the underlying inflation just as I do. Even if end producers aren't currently passing along all of these costs to consumers, they will have to eventually. Rates will be forced higher, regardless of how many bonds the Fed purchases through QE2, QE3 and so on. In fact, further QE only exacerbates the rise of input costs and makes this whole process worsen and speed up.

My point is, protect yourself. DO NOT, under any circumstances, allow Blythe and her monkeys to scare you out of your precious metals. By the way, take another look at the percentage gains of these three commodities. Ingrain them into your memory and pull them back out the next time you hear some stooge/buffoon state that "gold and silver are in a bubble".

On to today, its 9:10 and everyone is waiting for Blythe to start her daily ritual. Maybe today she won't. Perhaps seeing crude at $90.30 is giving her pause. If she doesn't strike, we're headed back to and through 1400 in gold and we'll probably move up near 29.75 in silver. Let's watch and see.

Lastly, The Turd would like to applaud his friends Luke and Elizabeth Skywalker as they celebrate their 21st wedding anniversary. I don't remember much of that day...too much Jack Daniels...but it was cold as hell, something like -25F. Brutal cold but they've made it 21 years, nonetheless, and for that they are to be congratulated.

More later.

Watching The Wicked Witch

First up, for anyone new to Turd's World, here's a visual of today's pre-market planning meeting at JPM:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESI19h4wDo

We did successfully paint another wonderful FUBM formation on the intra-day chart. HAHAHAHAHA!
Now, Blythe must be watched very closely this afternoon as she is, most assuredly, getting desperate. Remember this? It was only two weeks ago today:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html
Do not be surprised if she attacks again on the Globex this afternoon. I say again because she's already done it once:

But, wait, here come our friends!

Here's an updated daily chart. If we can hang in there today, Blythe will have no choice but to intervene again tomorrow as silver is poised to spring a serious, short-covering bonanza of $1.00 or more. The fun thing is that we are on to her game. Six straight days makes it obvious to just about everyone. "So easy, even a Turd can do it." If little ole me can see this shit coming every day, you can bet your sweet batooty that our big $ BoS can see it, too. Blythe has truly painted herself into a corner. Does she:
1) short even more new paper silver contracts and incur even greater losses during the inevitable pop, or,
2) give up and not intervene tomorrow?
Thankfully, she loses either way. HAHAHAHAHA

Now, in fairness, the USDX isn't helping our cause. It definitely looks like it has broken upward and now the area around 81.40-60 must be watched very closely as a move through there could be quite harmful to the short-term prospects of the metals.

Lastly, lots of talk about copper these days. For anyone interested, here a daily copper chart. Pretty impressive. Looks a lot like silver, don't you say?

That's it for now. I'm going to be tied up a bit this afternoon into this evening so I probably won't post again until later tonight. For now, keep a close eye on Blythe and her monkeys until 4:30 EST. As of 2:30, I have a last of 29.30. So far, so good.
And please remember to "visit our sponsors" on your way out the door. The Turd needs to do some Xmas shopping for Mrs. Ferguson and the two little Turds. Thanks again for participating! TF


A quick 4:20 EST update:
Both copied for JSM. First, read this:
http://174.133.72.211/
Trader Dan is The Man!
Next, for those of you that get all excited over TA, I present you with this:
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/clip_image0011.gif
The timing sure coincides with my thoughts on an imminent, upside breakout. We'll see.

Another FUBM Forming?

As you've noticed by now, The Turd has a few of his own technical patterns and formations. "Poseidon's Anchor" is a favorite which worked pretty well again last week in the bond market. This new one, however, might be my personal favorite.

We call this the "FUBM" formation. Since Blythe has decided that her modus operandi each day is to raid gold and silver at 9:00 am EST, the subsequent reversals and rebounds courtesy of the BoS stick out like a big, middle finger. My mental picture is that of a Saudi prince, in full headgear and robe regalia, with one arm extended, giving Blythe the finger. Here's what it looks like from a traditional, technical perspective:

OK, this last hour looks to be very interesting. Blythe has raided on six, consecutive sessions but the lows she makes keep getting higher and higher.

If we can eek out a positive close today at $29.36 or higher on the March11, I believe we are set up for a short-term pop up over $30. Maybe another one of those $1+, short-covering surges. Keep your fingers crossed. Lets see what the BoS has in store for us over the next 60 minutes.

Watch this, too. Potentially very important:

Two Followups

A couple of quick hits for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, European lunch or Asian/Australian dinner:

First, in a followup to last night where I posted that John Embry letter from last summer, here's Embry's latest, discovered by reader "Costa Rica Chris". For perspective, be sure you have read last summer's missive before you dig into this one. After reading this, you'll probably be ready to max out your JPMorgan credit card and use all the money to buy physical silver and gold.
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/MPLID_112610_pg401Emb.pdf

Next, I referenced yesterday the "60 Minutes" segment that dealt with the looming bankruptcies of U.S. cities and states. At the very end, Meredith Whitney says forthrightly that this crisis will be front-and-center "within the next 12 months". Do you really think that states and cities will be allowed to go bankrupt? Do you really think California can find $19B in new deficit financing? Do you really think that the state of Illinois is going to raise revenue by 25% and slash spending by 25% so that they will be in balance? OF COURSE NOT!!! The only remedy is a US government, money-printing, QE3 bailout. Period.
Presented for your enjoyment, here is the full "60 Minutes" video:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7166293n&tag=related;photovideo

While I've been typing, I see Blythe has decided to attack...again. This makes 5 straight days! You'd think she'd at least allow us our Tuesday but no. This current attack is about $9 in roughly 9 minutes. Same time, same place. Shit's getting old but what can you do? Let's see if the BoS blunt her forces as we go through the morning. Maybe we can paint the tape with another "FUBM" formation?!?
11:30 EST update:
Here's Blythe's daily footprint

More later after I go throw up.

Another Oldie But Goodie

10:45 pm EST update:
This was just posted on ZH a few minutes ago. If you haven't read it, you must do so now. Our frequent commenter, Cris, is going to love this one:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jp-morgan-shifting-its-silver-and-gold-shorts-non-us-domiciled-and-thus-unregulatable-banks
I cautioned last week that the whole JPM-out-of-silver story was bogus. Unfortunately, its quite obvious now that I was right.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/not-buyin-it.html
The criminal Evil Empire will stop at nothing to please their despotic, soulless masters at The Fed. Our fight is ongoing but we will win. Truth is on our side.


I was sifting through some files this afternoon and I found this report from last summer. Note that it is dated July 23, 2010. That evening, Feb11 gold closed at $1193. In fact, it was just a few days away from making a corrective bottom at $1163. This correction reached almost 9% so Mr. Embry was being quite bold when he issued this report. With the benefit of five months of hindsight, he now appears not only bold but amazingly prescient.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/06_23_2010%20Gold%27s%20on%20the%20cusp%20of%20a%20parabolic%20move%20up.pdf

Harvey had an abbreviated post tonight. Here's the main thing you need to see:

"All I can say is that the silver comex is showing signs of panic. 

The total silver comex open interest surprisingly rose by 954 contracts to 131,819 from Friday's level of 130,865.  This reading is basis Friday as open interest is always one day back.

If you recall, silver, even though this metal was punished as the CME raised margins, it bucked all downward momentum to register gains at the conclusion of trading. Most of Friday's gains occurred at 1 pm to 1:30 pm.  Today, the banking cartel out of sheer desperation tried again to shake the silver leaves from the Comex tree and failed again!!" 

Be sure to scroll down today's other posts if you haven't already. Lots of good stuff there. Thanks! TF

Just For Fun

No explanation needed.

Listen To This Today!

12:50 EST update:
Keep your fingers crossed on silver. Above $29.25 and you'll have your highest close since the brutal beatdown of last Wednesday and a real poke in the eye of Blythe. $29.24 last.
Its now 1:30. I've got $29.32 and, at $1386, we've closed back above the 20-day moving average in gold. Eat it, Blythe!


Yesterday, I received a note from Steve in the great state of New York. Attached was a link to an interview of Harvey Organ that was posted two days ago. You must take time to listen to this!


Again, The Turd is not Harvey nor is he the interviewer. The Turd has absolutely no connection to either of these gentlemen or their sites. The Turd and his readers simply scour the internet for nuggets of information to which you may not currently be privy. In this instance, Turd 100% agrees with the observations of the interviewer and, of course, Harvey. You need to learn, know and understand what is discussed in these clips.

Presented in two parts, here is a link to part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7eRwW34j1g&feature=player_embedded

The link to part 2 pops up at the end of part 1. Sit back and listen. Then take a few moments to decide how you will survive and profit. I am reminded of Mike Burry, who you will recall from the great Michael Lewis book, "The Big Short". By mid-2005, Burry was so utterly convinced of the fraudulence of the CMO market that he was willing to stake his entire reputation and fortune on its ultimate downfall. When everything finally collapsed in 2008, not only was he professionally vindicated, he was wealthy beyond his wildest dreams. Burry could see the truth that no one else was willing to recognize.

We stand on the same threshold today in gold and silver. We will continue to be mocked by the financial media and we will always be harassed by the Evil Empire. However, in the end, we will win. Truth will prevail. We will be vindicated.

Monday Morning

10:30 EST update:
This chart need no explanation. Again, look right................................................>

A couple of quick things while I wait for the coffee to kick in:

1) Some saw a "political" message in my post of yesterday. Its in the eye of the beholder, I guess. I would have thought that the use of the term "republocrat" for every politician would have made clear my disdain for both U.S. political parties. Also, please remember that, different from ZH, I am not writing this blog for MBA-educated prop desk traders. This blog is for regular folks and I try to write things in way fashion that is designed to educate and inform.

2) Korean War II did not break out overnight as some had feared. Jets were scrambled. Guam B-52s were on alert. The South conducted their drills. The North ate their kim chi and watched from afar. So far...

3) If you haven't yet, you might take a few minutes to read this history of the World Gold Council and the fraudulent p.o.s.e.t.f. GLD. Interesting, enlightening yet disingenuous and manipulative:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-20/soros-gold-bubble-at-1-375-has-miners-push-every-button-in-tale-of-tears.html

4) Last night, "60 Minutes" had an expose on the very real financial crisis affecting U.S. state and local governments. I can't find a link to the full video yet but here's a link to the story. QE to infinity!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/12/19/60minutes/main7166220.shtml?tag=mncol;lst;1

5) Its 9:05 EST and both metals are trading higher and the stock market looks to open higher. Keep in mind that there is a record $17,000,000,000 in POMO today. Let's see if we can get the ball rolling this morning and have a nice, solid UP day.

Much more later.

Preparing Accordingly

Lately, I spent a lot of time fashioning posts about the daily machinations of the gold and silver markets. I will, no doubt, continue this practice as it is a hobby/passion of mine. However, the subtitle of this blog refers to the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment and its implications so I feel I need to "get back to basics", so to speak, as it is the "prepare accordingly" part that we all need to practice.

I found this image on Google and it seems to sum up my point of view. We are but children, at once hopeful and optimistic, yet watching our future drain away. The arcade coin drop is a metaphor I've used often in the past and I think it provides a decent visual. In the immortal words of Inigo Montoya: Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

Our "coin" was dropped by the great Texas slimeball politician, LBJ, when he created The Great Society in the 1960s. A new, expanded role of the US federal government was created and politicians learned that they could manipulate government largesse to their own political gain. In 1971, the coin began sinking into the funnel and spinning faster when republocrat President R. Milhous Nixon, realizing that the gold-sponsored money supply of the US could never grow at a pace sufficient to support this ever-expanding government, removed the US from the "gold standard" and the US dollar has been backed by nothing but the full faith and credit of the US government ever since.

Republocrat Jimmy Carter presided over the initial wave of stagflation brought upon by Nixon's decision. The "coin" kept dropping and circling faster and faster during his four years in office. In 1980, suddenly there was hope. Conservative Ronald Wilson Reagan was elected and through a policy of tax-cutting and higher interest rates, the conservative Reagan defied the laws of physics as the coin actually moved up the funnel and slowed. However, having succumbed to old age and senility, even Reagan suffered a "death-bed conversion" to Republocratism  and the coin began dropping again in 1986. Republocrat giant, G. H. Walker Bush took the reins of government in 1988 and, by 1992, our coin was spinning faster than ever and dropping at an alarming pace.

With the election of hick republocrat Billy Jeff Clinton in 1992, things began to get out of control. Soon, faced with a rapidly approaching end game, all republocrats in Congress and the Federal Reserve decided to go for broke. By massively inflating the US money supply, an illusion of prosperity took over, not just in the US but globally, too. This mirage held our collective imagination until the year 2000 when, suddenly, we began to realize that all was not well and that the coin was actually spinning faster and was much closer to the bottom than we'd thought.

"Good heavens. We can't have that!" exclaimed the new republocrat president Dubya Bush. With his partners in crime in Congress and the Federal Reserve, Little B reached into the funnel, grabbed the already speeding/dropping coin and actually gave it a push faster. By 2008, the coin was nearing the bottom of the funnel.

Just then, a dangerously under-qualified former street radical republocrat was elected president. President B'rock O'bottom is now presiding over the end of the game. At the end, the "coin" spins faster and faster until the bottom simply drops out. This is where we stand today. Are not events spinning faster and faster? Are your politicians and policymakers not making more rash and spurious decisions with each passing day? Are global leaders not positioning themselves for the next World Order?

The end of US hegemony is near and with it, the end of the US dollar as "world reserve currency". This catastrophe and all in entails could have been avoided with responsible leadership and an educated/involved populace. However, selfishly, we in the US decided it was best to pursue a plan where we foolishly thought our recklessness was beneficial. This attitude was best summarized by republocrat and Keynesian legend, John Connally, who, as the coin was dropped in 1973, told the world that "the dollar is our currency but it is your problem". Sadly, we allowed Mr. Connally to be prescient for almost 40 years but the world is about to turn the tables. Soon...very soon...the coin will finally reach the narrow end of the funnel and the bottom will simply drop out. What happens next will not be fun and games.

Harvey Blurbs and Long-Term Charts

Happy weekend, everyone!
Wow, what a great close yesterday! In spite of a massive, three straight days of EE raids, our metals held tough and even staged a powerful rally into the close. Support held beautifully on both of the PMs we follow and we are set for a great week next week. Monday brings a huge, $17B POMO. This is twice as big as any single POMO day we've had before. No wonder there was such strength and short-covering into the close yesterday! With the great support of last week, we could really strike some fear into the hearts of the shorts with a powerful rally early next week. Let's hope it develops!  As mentioned yesterday, keep an eye on the USDX and crude. If they open Monday in our favor, we are going to have a big, big day.

Harvey just posted his usual Saturday comments. To save you having to sort through the entire thing (http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/), here are three, main highlights:

1) "The entire silver comex open interest shockingly did not fall at all, it rose by 533 contracts.  This totally annoyed JPMorgan and friends.  With two consecutive raids they failed to shake any silver leaves.  They probably failed again on Friday." 
This is absolute proof of direct EE price suppression. To hammer silver in the fashion they did on Thursday yet see OI increase? Amazing!! Surely some weak-handed longs closed out their positions but OI went up. Where did these new contracts come from?? Brand spanking new paper shorts supplied by the EE, that's where!! Additionally, this indicates how few longs were actually spooked enough to be sold out. Our side is finally wising up to Blythe's games and refusing to be intimidated!!!!


2) "Herein is the ETF story for today:

Cannot quite figure this one out.  Today the GLD added 15.18 tonnes of gold or 588,200 oz of gold!!!

A) where did they get the gold'

B) with this demand how in earth did the clowns raid over at the comex?"
It kills me that there are still reasonably intelligent people out there that think GLD and SLV are legitimate investment vehicles that do, as they claim, own physical metal.
What a joke!! 


3) "The trading of silver this past week has been breathtaking. Silver is now the least leveraged on any commodity on the comex.  An investor needs a minimum of 20,000 usa dollars per contract. At 5000 oz at 29.00 per contract, if one were to take delivery, the total value of the contract is 140,000 USA dollars.  The leverage is 13:1.  For comparison gold is 22 to one; platinum is 17. to one;copper is 16 to one.  JPMorgan had to be in serious trouble asking the CME to initiate another hike in margins with silver already below the others in leverage.  They also initiated the margin requirements when silver was already hit instead of a few days ago when it surpassed 29.20.  I strongly believe that JPMorgan and friends are in serious trouble over at the silver comex."
And just in case you're a CNBS lemming who thinks that margin increases in silver are warranted because of leverage and volatility, Harvey gives you this to chew on over the weekend. Clearly, the EE is begging the CME to increase margins because they know they are being routed! Does anyone have a better answer? Anyone? Anyone? Beuhler? Beuhler? I didn't think so. What a sham!


OK, lastly, a couple of long-term charts for you to ponder. Lots and lots of BS on CNBS yesterday about tops and bubbles in PMs. What disingenuous pricks these people are! Segments and topics on CNBS are set up by the producers anywhere from 2-7 days in advance. (Trust me on this. I've been a "guest" on that network four times in the past.) To have several segments within a couple of hours, where each of interviews discuss the idea that gold and silver are in a bubble, wreaks of spin, distortion and manipulation. Utter nonsense that should be ignored! For a better perspective I give you these three charts. No lines. No angles. Purposefully left blank for your own interpretation. 
Have a great weekend. I'll update again tomorrow. Turd out.