Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The Questions Continue

Each day this week, silver has been hammered down at approximately 9:00 am EST. Now, we all know that this isn't atypical...the EE have been doing this for years and we did see copper sell off at roughly the same time. However, several readers have brought to my attention the little nugget below and I think it requires your serious consideration.

First things first, here's a 15-minute May silver chart to peruse. Keep in mind that today's smackdown was in the face of ongoing strength in gold and crude, so, silver acted somewhat independently.
OK now, with this chart in mind, read this. Dated last November, our friend "Wynter" wrote the following:

"WB: JPM is in worse shape then we ever dared to hope 20-Nov-10 07:06 am

This is what I am now hearing from traders on the floor. These traders are not even sure if Blythe knows the full extent of JPM's silver exposure.

When I first started to realize that JPM has shorted far more silver than they could ever hope to cover, my first question was "why would they do that?" Not only that, why do it with a commodity where you must report your positions through the COT and Bank Participation Report? After all,the whole world can see what you are doing. 
 [my added comment: Ted Butler included!]

Now I know the answer. According to Max Keiser and now a couple of other independent sources, it seems the reasons why first Bear Stearns and now JPM are so desperate to manipulate the price of silver down is due to the fact that BS and JPM shorted billions (yes billions not millions) in ounces of silver through their derivatives.

Just like Joe Conason at AIG, silver shorting through derivatives have caused literally billions in losses not the millions that we know about publicly. That is why JPM has been so desperate to manipulate the price of silver downward so blatantly. If I am right about this, then JPM will be dead when silver hits $60 or so. Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars, a large number but not nearly large enough to bring down mighty JPM.

But what is not known is that due to the way that its derivatives are written, 
JPM's losses are exponentional once silver breaks $36 or so. Rumors has it that JPM could be losing as much as $40 billion once silver is above $50. It has something to do with how the derivatives are written with payment tied to the price of silver.

Since JPM was a price manipulator with respectt to the price of silver, JPM assumed that any derivative payments tied to silver would be less than they would be tied to some other index like the CPI or TIPS implied inflation index. JPM's inability to hold down the price of silver relative to other measures of inflation will cause unbelievable losses due to a mismatch in their derivative structures.

In essence,JPM has bet (a huge amount)through derivatives that silver will never outperform inflation. And why not,since JPM assumed that it will always be able to manipulate the price of silver. We have now come to understand that JPM's loss exposure to silver is much greater than we have ever dared to hope.

WB: In an effort to clear up some recent confusion regarding my latest posting, I will try to explain what I have recently uncovered.

JPM's current short silver position is estimated to be approximately 150 million ounces down from the recent 180 million ounces in August. The losses from these positions are easy to figure out. For every $10 rise in the price of silver, JPM will lose $1.5 billion.
But what I have recently discovered is that through its derivative positions, JPM will lose about 5 times that amount ounce the price of silver is above $36. And ounce silver is above $45 dollars, JPM's losses will increase to 8 times the amount of losses in their short positions. The reason is that as the price of silver increases, certain provisions get activated which multiplies the losses.

One reader asks the question why isnt the price of JPM going down to reflect the lossesd in silver. My answer is that the price of silver is not high enough to begin to trigger losses in their derivative positions. But once silver approaches this critical level say around $36, then you should begin to see the price of JPM stock begin to reflect these losses.

In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock.

JPM market cap is around $170 billion. If silver losses are as great as $40 billion in cash , then JPM will be insolvent. Period.

From your former traders (whom you dismissed so callously)"

Look, I still have absolutely no idea if this whole "WB Group" thing is real or imagined. There are, though, a lot of coincidences and in a rigged and manipulated "market" such as silver, the old phrase about "there are no coincidences" certainly rings true.

Lastly, I had planned on rolling my April 105 crude calls into some May 110s today. However, for now, the chart gives the appearance of another, impending up move. For now, I'm sitting tight.
As I publish this, I have lasts of:
April gold $1432.20
May silver $36.09
April crude $105.21

Lets go have a fun day! TF

Two things to watch here intra-day. First, look at this chart of copper. You can clearly see the importance of the 420 level. It has been moving inversely to the PMs as of late so watch this closely.
Crude is catching a lot of fresh bids this morning. A move to new highs on the day would confirm, for me, the next swing higher has begun. As I check, I see that suddenly the PMs and crude have sharply fallen. Must be another peace&love rumor.
More later.


  1. It really does look like it's turning north if you draw the channel on the 30-day chart... But who can say for sure with this kind of manipulation. I should have learned my lesson by now after three straight days of this crap, let alone her morning attacks in the past!

  2. @Eric - your end of thread post timing has rub off onto me ; )

    @joe - thx for the IRA recommendation

    Here is my post from the last thread:


    Thanks for being patient with my ignorance.

    My Roth is sitting with American Funds. Unfortunately, American Funds does not have PM related allocation options.

    I am currently in the process of trying to determine where to roll over my 401k funds (just switched employers). Obviously, I am looking for allocation options into PMs.

    I contacted Precedent, but there IRA contact has not returned my phone call.

    As always, thanks for the hand holding (to the entire Turd Bowl).

    Time click some sponsor links....

  3. MIses

    I'm happy with my tdameritrade. Transfer your IRA from American Funds over to ameritrade, etrade, or whatever, then do a rollover of your 401(k) to that same new IRA account, then you'll have the whole pile all in one account, and then you can do some real damage. Good Luck!

  4. I think ANYONE on this blog would thoroughly enjoy the movie documentary Inside Job.

    If you have not seen it, RUN don't walk to rent or buy the DVD, which was released yesterday.

    The movie won this year's Academy Award for Best Documentary and lays out in excruciating detail the CRIMINALITY behind the financial crisis of 2008.

    Really, if EVERY American saw this movie, it would do a tremendous amount of education about what our real problems are.

  5. I've been looking into Silver Quest, ticker symbol SQIFF. Does anyone have an opinion on this one? I bought 2,000 shares at 66 cents last week but chickened out and sold at 69 cents lol. I heard an interview with the CEO on their website though, they said they are really cash heavy and will be doing lots of sample drilling on their property which was acquired in 2010.

    Seems like it might be a buy and hold but I'm really new at this and was wondering if anyone else had some thoughts? Also, rumor has it that this is one of NIA's new picks, but I have yet to verify that as well.

  6. The end of Keynesian Economics could be swift...
    All this stock talk is nice, but things may change very quick...

    Prepare yourselves..
    I need to do some more of that myself...

    P.S. Revett has some interesting news. This news concerns its "call option" Rock Creek.

    This is from "mouserman" who posts on several boards, but the link for this information can be found here:

    Here is the breakdown of those bills recently passed in the US senate. It looks very positive for RVM and the Rock Creek project, as it appears to put a stop to the endless legal challenges brought on by the small group protesting the development of a mine.
    Environmental, mining bills passed by Senate

    HELENA -- The state Senate on Wednesday endorsed four bills to narrow Montana's environmental laws on mining and other projects. Here's a summary of the bills:

    Senate Bill 317: Sponsored by Sen. Chas Vincent, R-Libby, the bill substantially rewrites the Montana Environmental Policy Act (MEPA), narrowing its scope and inserting language that extols natural-resource development and its economic benefits. MEPA is the state's signature environmental law that requires the state to review any major action, such as a mine permit, for its environmental impacts. The Senate endorsed SB317 on a 27-23 vote, with all but one Republican -- Sen. Ryan Zinke, R-Whitefish -- voting for it. All Democrats opposed it.

    SB233: Sponsored by Sen. Jim Keane, D-Butte, this bill also amends MEPA. It restricts what a MEPA review can consider and says a court can't stop a project while a lawsuit challenges the adequacy of a MEPA review. The Senate voted 30-20 for the bill. Keane and fellow Democratic Sens. Steve Gallus of Butte, Brad Hamlett of Cascade and Gene Vuckovich of Anaconda joined 26 Republicans in favor. Zinke voted against it.

    SB306: Sponsored by Sen. Terry Murphy, R-Cardwell, the bill amends the 1998 ban on open-pit, cyanide heap-leach gold mines by saying new mines can process their ore at the two existing mines in Montana, which were exempted from the ban. The Senate voted 29-21 for the bill. Gallus, Vuckovich and Keane joined 26 Republicans in favor; Zinke voted against it.

    SB312: Sponsored by Vincent, the bill revises Montana's metal-mine regulations, attempting to streamline the permitting process. The Senate voted 32-18 for the bill. Four Democrats joined all 28 Senate Republicans in favor.

  7. Mises
    I know for sure at ameritrade you can get the account set up totally online. Click, click, click and you have an account number. Then sometimes it's a tad more work getting all the funds transfered. Especially the rollover of the 401(k). Sometimes your old plan will really drag their feet on that. Getting the transfer from American should be pretty easy.

    I assume etrade,et al work pretty much the same way.

  8. While watching the silver chart and the take down from 36.40 to below 35.95 and then watching the confident BOS march the price back up . . . somebody knows something and the WB story sounds very believable. Also watching the ticker on SLW it seems that the hedgies playing there know something too since I would have expected the price to drop much more than it did during the 50 cent take down in silver. Quite a show this morning.

  9. The questions must be posed, over and over and over again:
    Where is the silver that is being sold?
    Why have you allowed one company to completely dominate the sell side of the market?

    The activity that took place the last two days (days the E.E. usually avoid adding too many short positions) should be the highlight of the next report.

    Just keep asking. It doesn't pass the red face test.

  10. MisesFan,
    Are you trying to purchase PMs to sit in your IRA, or purchase ETFs containing allocated PMs like PHYS, SIVR, PSLV? If you wish to do the former, then you need to roll-over into a self-directed IRA that allows holding of precious metals. I do not know much about such accounts, but has a nice FAQ page - follow the IRA/RSP tab at the right side of the menu tabs on the main page. has similar FAQs if you go to the Questions? tab...

  11. Mises, last year I was "retired" and moved all 401k over to a Scottrade IRA. Best thing I ever did. Now looking at removing funds from IRA and paying penalties to use funds. I still believe Gov will tap your IRA in future for Treasury sales. They will disguise it as "a safe annuity" but we all know it wont keep up in "real" inflation.

    Just my $.02

  12. Turdle posted those WB comments earlier. Is $37 the straw that breaks their backs? Ag looking pretty feisty today, came right back up. Probably a see-saw affair all day. C'MON Ag $THREE-SEVEN!!!

    As Bix Weir loves to say: MELT THE WITCH!

  13. @ Mises

    I agree with Eric ... I recommend TD Ameritrade over ETrade ... not to into long explanations but ETrade SUCKS!!!!!!!!

  14. ewc58,

    It's $37ish spot, and $36 SLV where JPM has the derivatives exposure from what I understand the runor to be.

  15. I can't believe it: TJ back for another whupping, or maybe another Turd Flush.

    Surely there's a place for you TJ. In a circus.

  16. Turd
    Im sure you saw the bit on zh about pimco getting out of treasuries in advance of the end of qe2. This is a sure sign that there will be no qe3 at least at first. This has enormous implications for all asset classes of course. Would love for the turd community to crowdthink through the dominos. Obviously equity and bond negative but what about pms? The equity outflow won't go into ust as usual IMHO as the safe haven is guaranteed to fall in price. I for one would welcome a robust discussion on the impending end of we. Good luck to all.

  17. Can anyone deny the war drums are beating louder and louder??

    First, Gaddafi says he will FIGHT a no-fly zone.

    Now, I just saw this:

    NATO intercepts advanced Iranian missiles heading to Taliban in Afghanistan.

  18. Yup! Blink and you miss those desperate bankster fraudster dips!! Anyone not buying physical on the dips and stickin it to the too big to fail banks and the vermin price fixing? Haven't a clue on the extent of the silver shortage!! Missed the last 15 dollar move in silver spot! Likely to miss the next 15 silver spot rise to 50, 80, 135, 250, & you get the picture!!

  19. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  20. the derivatives thing is interesting but imo its all pure speculation and how this fellow settles on 36 as the key price is beyond me.

    At any rate, JPM will not go down. They are the New York Fed. The Bernank will simply funnel money onto their balance sheet, they have a thousand ways to do this. But that means more money printing and a higher silver price. They can also completely change the rules of trading Silver in the event that the number 1 criminal bank in the world is threatened. But no way they go down. They are ground zero of the entire financial criminal syndicate and have extremely close ties to Obama, why do you think he appointed that crook Daley to be his right hand hatchet man?

  21. EA
    I doubled up on MVW.. whens this bomb going off that will make us very happy ? more details greatly appreciated

  22. The Turd wrote:

    I still have absolutely no idea if this whole "WB Group" thing is real or imagined. There are, though, a lot of coincidences and in a rigged and manipulated "market" such as silver, the old phrase about "there are no coincidences" certainly rings true.

    Turd, this issue is also being discussed over on Screwtape Files, where the commenting software is malfunctioning, at least right now. Blogspot will probably fix the commenting software later -- I hope so.

    Hey, Turd, why does YOUR website not have a search function, given that Screwtape Files does have such a function? Screwtape will allow you to search for the term "Wynter Benton".

    -- Paul D. Bain

  23. I ponder this post. I am wondering why a bank would not hedge itself. It seems a bit amateur as well, not only that, why not cut losses?

    I just find it a bit difficult to understand when there is a 'giant' bank at the mercy of a particular decision?

    just my 2 cents.

  24. Can you imagine the class action suit against banks/government if this manipulation comes to light? Basically anyone who has invested in futures markets for PM's and related stocks for the last 40 years would have a claim. That is if the judicial system is not "owned".

  25. ewc: All are welcome here, even TJ. However, I monitor all comments and if I deem something to be counterproductive, it gets deleted.

  26. MIses

    Testes brings up a great point. Go with an ameritrade type brokerage account if you want to buy metals ETF's like PSLV, or stocks like Great Panther, Silver Wheaton, etc. Plus you can do whatever else suits you. Oils, bonds, Netflix or whatever.

    If you really want actual metal in your IRA you need a certain kind of IRA custodian. I posted this link for someone a few days ago and they seemed pretty happy with what they found. There are similar type accounts at other places too. No reason you can't do both if you want. Some money at ameritrade, some money at the other.

  27. E*Trade: basically the only reason I stay is that I negotiated a trade price of 5.99 for all equity trades (not global trading acct trades).

    How? I got an offer in the mail for 5.99 trades regardless of trading volume from a well-known ET competitor. I called them and said meet this, or I bolt.

    They met it. At 5.99 per trade across the 5 different portfolios I manage, I can live w/ the crappy functionality. And at least they are an American company. TD is Canadian; they ultimately roll up to the Crown. I mean, Yuck!

  28. Chris, there is this too, on the war drum front:


  29. Look for silver to rip through 50 for the headline number to drag in enough for the smart money to sell some bullion and the JPM short position to pile on ....the timing should be obvious to you .....VERY OBVIOUS...

  30. in regards to the previous posts about march 11th, I remember there being confusion about that date in the yahoo threads... the essence was that it was the mar (20)11 futures contracts, that were exercised the last week of february for march delivery, and there was never any stated March 11th date or deadline. then again, friday may prove me wrong :P

  31. Silver *WILL* eventually exceed $40. In fact, we WILL see triple digit silver soon. Will it be this year? Will it take 2 to 3 years? I don't know when, but it WILL happen. If this wynter person is indeed correct, (very, very big if) then JPM is doomed to insolvency. It is only a question of when.

    2 questions then. How can these derivatives see the light of day? And how well can the U.S. government and the Fed bail them out?

    JPM is part of the Fed, the Fed is part of JPM, they are 2 different faces to the same entity. How well can the monster hide these losses?

  32. Paul Bain wrote:

    Hey, Turd, why does YOUR website not have a search function, given that Screwtape Files does have such a function? Screwtape will allow you to search for the term "Wynter Benton".

    OK. NEVERMIND. I found the search box at the upper, left corner of the web page. Apparently, Blogspot sees fit not to label this box "search," which is why I overlooked it when searching for it. Lesson learned.

    Now, I can search all past discussions of, e.g., Great Panther, Apmex, or Tulving. Very cool.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  33. I pay 9.99 at TDAmeritrade. I know it's not the cheapest but those little costs are not a material factor for me anyway. A buddy of mine likes his Scottrade accounts. What is it? Like 7.99? Big deal. I've been happy about everything at TDAmeritrade so I stay.

  34. Turning Japanese,
    Perhaps if you gave some valid input or valid criticism, you wouldn't get treated like the troll you are. I have noticed your FEW posts that do not personally/aggressively attack TF are not deleted. Add something constructive, and I am sure you will not FUBM'd.

  35. Of course, I've never had an account anywhere else, so nothing to compare to. Maybe TD sucks and I don't even know it!

    I sort of take that back. I handle some family members accounts thru Vanguard Brokerage. I definately like TD better than Vanguard, but again maybe it's just because I'm used to it.

  36. Is JPM a TBTF?

    Then Ben will insure it doesn't. Do you want to go up against the Fed?

    But...with the debt ceiling being reached, and many saying they don't want to increase it again. What WILL the Fed do? CAN they keep giving JPM more and more 0% cash to keep beating down the price?

    How "limited" ARE their funds? How much of a backstop CAN the Fed offer? Is there a point where it say's enough...someone has to be allowed to fail?

    If JPM goes down...REALLY goes DO know what that means? It MAY just be that end you've been waiting for. Are we listening to the band play on as the Titanic slowly noses down another degree?

    Hmmm...silver coming back down... Was this telling? Over $36...?

  37. Here's an interesting chart for anyone maybe looking for silver targets in the near-term. It was posted by an "Alex" on another blog, so the credit is his.

    My only question though, and I am not an expert TA guy, but are trendlines valid on log scales as in this chart?

  38. The real reason for rising gas and oil prices, help spread the word to the uninformed. This benefits us all in the long run!

  39. Besides if there is a reason to keep silver below 36, you know it's only a matter of time before we break through this sucker. Keep the faith.

  40. The gov/fed/treasury has that QE2+ sitting there,
    with a few 100 billion un-allocated.
    If JPM screams,
    "I did yur dirty work, now lick the sweat out of my ass-crack"
    they will probably put it all, 200 billion or so, in a truck and take it to them.
    The sheeple will never know or care.
    No one even asks where the QE,1, 2, 3 is going or gone to.
    All these writers keep looking for the straw that breaks jpm's back.
    They keep using logic.
    WTF, when will they wake-up?
    All the main players [jpm, GS, Treasury], are just different arms of the same monster
    Breaking jpm is the same as breaking the treasury,and the Gov.
    When it finally happens, look out~!
    Old Chinese saying;
    "Be careful what you wish for."

  41. IMHO, JPM is the very definition of TBTF. JPM are the people in the room where they decide who is TBTF. JPM tells the Fed and Treasury and Congress and the White House who is TBTF.

  42. Ken, imo and from what I can gather JPM works in the Silver market as an agent of the government. Suppressing silver means gold and silver are far below their true Comex price so it allows them to fake the public into beleiving the CPI nonsense about no inflation and it helps to slow down any run on the dollar. They want a gradual devaluation, nothing spectacular.

  43. Hi Wade, so far MVW is up 11% today. The rise hasn't begun. Some BIG things coming down the pipeline. This is a 10 bagger or more.

    Ridiculous article on silver today at the Pragmatic Capiyalism. I sent them here to read the "frontlines".

  44. My.Harbl.Testes,

    If you think any of my comments have been aggressive personal attacks, I suppose they do appear that way when compared to the blind a$$-kissing I see on this and many other blogs. I've given Turd credit for getting the overall trend right, but my comments have been anything but aggressive. Why can't we question the master every once in awhile?

  45. i think sqiff which i have some was a recent nia pick and some director was former slw guy,all i got plus my small lot which amounts to zero (300) for fun

  46. Turd,

    I know you have discussed at length that there is no way we will not have QE3. However, over at ZH this article is very interesting.

    It would appear Bill Gross is betting against QE3.

    I could potentially foresee an annoucement that there will be no QE which sends the markets reeling. I'm not sure if that is bullish or bearish for PMs over that short term.

    It could present a real buying opportunity.

    After a downturn in the markets, the FED could then reannounce QE3.

  47. Does anyone have an update on the information to be released by Andrew McGuire?

    About a month ago MK stated that he had silver information that would probably put some behind bars....but as far as I know, no information has ever surfaced.

    is everyone else hear this?

  48. There has been a certain amount of consistency within the statements made by "WB" group. Though I am inclined to say its nonsense, the internal consistency makes me curious.

  49. @ Eric

    all the tools at TD work and there are some nice ones .... example: set some test email price alerts in TD & ETrade on a few stocks at same numbers ... TD came through when price was hit ... on each one from ETrade 45 minutes passed before recieving the alert ... dumped ETrade

  50. Mises: I have an account at Ameritrade and an account at Optionsxpress. I think either would suit your purposes. As it's name suggests, Optionsxpress caters more to option traders but you can buy stocks and bonds there too. After you decide which brokerage you want to transfer too, just call them up and they'll be happy to help you. You'll be surprised how easy it is.

    Also, while on the subject of 401k's, if someone has a 401k at their present job and they are over 55 years of age, they can do an "inservice withdrawal." They won't give you all of it but they will give you a precentage every year until you reach 59 1/2 when they have to give you all of it. Contact your 401k administrator and tell them you want your money. I don't think BO would try outright confiscation yet, but they might limit what funds are available. Such as two: Money market or treasuries.

  51. Einhorn... Hmmm. Now that name sure sounds like it will be a super objective source about Iranian nuke capabilities or intentions, ya? And perhaps we should use Ahmedinejad as a source to ask about the intentions of Israeli Foreign Policy? Not a big diff.

    Think of this latest spew as the news equivalent of Fiat paper. Just as innately worthless. They're just in the process of creating the next boogey man for you. They want us to kill each other in another WW, so we don't come after them and their families instead.

    The biggest problem in the ME is very well known to most of the world. In fact, it does start with an "I". But it doesn't stand for Iraq, or Iran. How many Iranians in the Fed? On Wall Street? In the Intel community? At DHS? (hey come to think of it: maybe Butch Napolitano is actually a Muzzie terr???)

    Does Iran have a powerful lobby that runs DC, with Pets disguised as Congress Critters and POTUS? And I'm not aware of AIPAC standing for the American Iranian Political Action Commitee.

    From here on, consume their "News", or hold their Fiat paper, at your own peril. Don't go for their head fakes, they want to march us to war.

  52. A little birdie told me - if you are a TDAmeritrade account holder, and are pretty active trading, it wouldn't hurt to ask them to review what they made from you on commissions last year and in the last month, and then ask for them to lower the commission from $10 to $7.

  53. this is disgusting. so the shorts strategy is to become TBTF?

  54. That was my point Eric...JPM will NOT fail until the end.


    The more oil costs...the more the dollar is monetized. Remember...oil is priced in dollars...every barrel that comes out ADDS more and more dollars...monetizing the debt away like magic. With a growing world economy, it works great...during recessions...not so great. It's an inflation machine that we're not able to grow out of at this point.

  55. TJ,
    Thanks for the charts.
    I am not convinced Technical Analysis and charting is of much value right now. The manipulative EE tactics have consistently overridden what the short term chart trends predicted. But I like the long-term trend in these charts. I am holding my physical!

    On preparation.
    My lovely wife and I spend the day together yesterday driving to the big city and loading up our truck with food. We have paused our physical purchases and trying to stock other items. It felt reassuring to carry in those 25lb bags of beans, wheat, and rice yesterday.

    Turd, I hope you are planning a "Preparation" page for discussion on your new website.

  56. For better or for worse, this morning I sold my SIL and my GDXJ and dollar cost averaged UP in EXK from a cost basis of $6.07 to a new one for the whole augmented number of shares of $7.795. With the remaining half of the sales proceeds I opened a position in GPL and am praying that over time I'll do better in these individual stocks (I've already made a 75% profit in EXK (THANK YOU TURD) than in the funds.

    God I hope this works out!


  57. A short Laurel & Hardy video on the Bernanke-Geitner plan to take the world out of bankruptcy:

  58. TJ

    I think we can all use an occasional "devil's advocate", "go back and review your basic assumptions" post once in a while. I'm fine with it. It's a good thing.

    Sometimes it's a matter of style that rubs people the wrong way. When things turn into flame throwing, ad hominum type stuff, people get mad. And then the hitbacks are ugly too.

    We all try to stay pretty polite around here, even when we disagree. That's what's so awesome about Turd Town.

  59. Verification Word: foodi (I'm hungry!)

  60. Joe, I think that's a common misunderstanding. Oil is priced in dollars, but that doesn't mean you need to pay for it in dollars. A producer can just as easily ask for payment in Euros or whatever, converted at the prevailing exchange rate.

    It is true that Saudi Arabia and some others insist on payment in dollars in return for the 'Protection' of Uncle Sam, but to imagine that they keep all of the money they receive in dollars forever is most likely incorrect. I would say that they have enough dollar exposure already and so spread their cash reserves about in other currencies and possibly some Gold too.

  61. Ha! A couple of days ago I mentioned a great read, "A Week in December" by Sebastian Faulks. One of the main plots of the book turns exactly on this scenario":

    "The covenant stated that if, following the successful acquisition, the market capitalization of the enlarged Allied Royal [bank] should at any point fall below a certain level (a level viewed as impossible in normal financial weather) the creditors would have the right to call in their loans in full. Such a call would be impossible for ARB to meet without issuing yet more shares."

    And as I wrote earlier, Faulks should have been a financial reporter. This is not some dumb writer. He knows his financial world cold.

    Performance covenants exist and maybe JPM is ensnarled in one. Stranger things have been known to man.

  62. @elanda811 Check out for Silver Quest information. He claims to hold 2 million shares and is a consultant for the company. I read his page occasionally but don't feel comfortable buying his recommendations. Buy DYODD (he has a whole section about SilverQuest.)


  63. Yesterday morning I had done my homework and decided to add to my AG position, but then EXK was on sale even cheaper, so I added to EXK instead. Last time I checked this morning, I would have been better off doing AG after all. Such is Life. I'm sure there's a lesson in there somewhere!

  64. QE3 will happen. The $64 trillion question is WHEN will it happen. Does it get announced in May? How about August? December? Does Ben let the market tank for 6 months, creating massive buying opportunity in every commodity underneath the sun before crying uncle?

    Es posible.

  65. Saddam started to set up a facility to accept Euros for Oil.....what happened after that...guy was swinging from a Gallows....

  66. Dr.J,

    I agree, I think TA is pretty useless in thin, partially manipulated markets like silver. Just thought it might help some others that place more importance on TA.


    Yeah, things can escalate quickly. I really didn't think my original post was that agressive, but maybe TF was having a bad day and went ballistic. I'm not here to start sh$t just to annoy people, but deleting adverse opinions seems a bit radical if you ask me.


    When I first heard about the WB group's March 1 raid on the Comex - it made sense. However, these comments regarding JPM's losses do NOT make any sense if you have any understanding of derivatives. If someone understands them, pls elaborate. Here are my points:

    1) Which derivatives instruments go up exponentially? The only one I can think of are credit default swaps, and last I checked, there are no CDS products tied to silver. The only thing that I see as possible (but completely IMPROBABLE) is if JPM shorted an insane amount of calls at 36 - they would need to be short 5 X 150 million ounces (according to WB) or about 750 million ounces at that strike. They also need to have shorted another 3 X 150 million, or 450 mm ounces at 45. How many options contracts trade on the Comex? Not nearly that much. Does WB mean to say that the OTC options market for silver is liquid enough for JPM to short calls on 1.2 billion ounces of silver??? And how does such a big derivatives short get past JPM's RISK MANAGEMENT dept? The paper market, which is 100X larger than the physical market, does not have anywhere near that amount of liquidity, but JPM can put that trade on in the OTC market? Which OTC counter-party is on the other side of the trade? Futures markets are SAFER and more LIQUID than forward markets because the exchange guarantees the trades. So how does it make any sense for anyone to take counter-party risk on such a huge size through OTC derivative contracts? Think about it.

    2) JPM's positions are NOT 100% composed of proprietary positions. What this means is that JPM's total short position is a combination of its own proprietary trading positions and client positions. That means there are hedge funds that are shorting futures and using JPM as a broker. You should be aware that NOT all the shorts put on by JPM are JPM's positions, in fact, the size of JPM's proprietary positions are PROBABLY a very small percentage of its total shorts. So if you are expecting JPM to go bust because silver prices are going up, you should cover your shorts because it isn't going to happen. JPM will put out margin calls to their clients before they go under.

    Please be careful around here. The numbers don't make any sense.

  68. Eric

    AG is a great company! They were $4 on the TSE in August and now look at them! They sell silver on their website at one of the lowest prices over spot as well.

  69. I love that whole "priced in dollars, priced in dollars" crap. Do you think someone in Britain, Argentina, or Vietnam cares or can even tell you the dollar price of gold, oil, wheat, or anything else under the sun. It's beyond ridiculous. It's the height of American arrogance to sit there on TV and say "well, it's priced in dollars you know."

    The only people on this planet who should give a crap about the dollar price of anything are............Americans!

  70. This comment has been removed by the author.

  71. WTI April crude down .15 Brent crude up $2.60. What a farce these markets have become. Yeah I know Cushing oversupplied blah blah blah....

  72. Guy

    AG: Oh, I know! I own both but yesterday it was a matter of "who do I add to?" and I made a mistake. I should have trusted my homework in the first place and not been swayed by the price action on my screen.

  73. Kli,

    Do you think it is possible though that they use a no QE annoucment to trigger a mini crash of sorts to then justify a bigger QE3?

    Althought I know PMs are the sure bet middle to long term, I'm not sure how they would fare immediately after a no QE annoucement.

  74. Nice buck forty hit on SLW so far today; possible accumulation opportunity.

  75. rthaler71,
    Right on. Gradual devaluation. They need to buy time. 6,000 more shorts?? Gotta love their commitment.
    Anybody wanna test TJ's number of 37?
    BUY BUY BUY People!!
    BYE BYE BYE Blythe

  76. Jimmy

    The way I understood it is JPM created a unique derivative tying silver to inflation. Being able to manipulate silver, it worked great initially. All was well until demand began to overwhelm them.

    I think these are off balance sheet custom derivatives, unregulated. Think of the unregulated CDS market where AIG was the counterparty.

  77. tacktic - Just another day in the fraudulent and manipulated US markets :-)

    Not saying that anyone else's markets are a paragon of virtue and transparency, but the US does seem to have just about the dirtiest, most dishonest markets in the world right now.

  78. maybe they'll bank the close to 35.60?

  79. spulling errer

    jake going to shut up now

  80. I'm thinking that's our beatdown for the day. Sunny skies until tomorrow.

    Eric Out.

    Just watch, it will dump some more just to make a liar out of me! That's the nature of these things. As soon as you hit "post" you are screwed.

  81. Blythe...CDS...Real Estate. Any bells ringing??
    Is it out of the question, that, in desperation someone has created another layer to the play?
    Look at the violence taking place at the 36 number. Look back at the overnights.
    Turd said...Somebody hates 36

  82. " oddzon said...
    Does anyone have an update on the information to be released by Andrew McGuire?

    About a month ago MK stated that he had silver information that would probably put some behind bars....but as far as I know, no information has ever surfaced.

    is everyone else hear this?"

    I second that notion. The information supposedly was to be released in the last week of February.

  83. Eric #1, really, no one outside the US should care what the price in dollars is for any commodity? Wow, I don't know if I should cry or scream. You found your way here, but you don't understand the impact of the price in dollars for wheat on an Egyptian family? Or the price in dollars for oil to a German transportation company? I was tempted to break it down for you, but I really don't think that it would do any good. Is not arrogance Skippy, its a curse.

  84. When the 6000 number went public people were scratching their heads.
    A couple days later now...does anybody yet have a theory?

  85. I'm very much a fan of the PM's. Sometimes I think this blog believes a bit too much of its own hype. When I can measure things multiple ways and get the same answer I try to do that.

    The COMEX numbers as described by Harvey and discussed here clearly show that cash settlement is probably happening. There has been speculation about these cash premiums being some where from 20 to 100%.

    This morning I had a thought, PSLV is trading at a 20% premium to spot. PSLV has real audited bars in the vault. PSLV also has a feature where you can redeem shares for physical silver. So if the EE is paying premiums to buy off contracts, if the premium is less than the PSLV premium then why not buy PSLV and redeeme shares? So I called PSLV investor relations on the phone and asked them if anyone had redeemed any PSLV shares. The answer was as of 2 weeks ago, no. They did not have more recent information than that.

    Given that I have to conclude that EE is either paying less than 20% cash premium or they are really stupid. PSLV has more than enough silver in the vault to cover ALL of the march comex silver OI.

  86. These downdrafts are just getting annoying and boring. I know we need consolidation and some profit taking before each leg up, but it is still getting a bit tiresome. Everyone with ahalf abrain knows where silver is going. Just wish JPM would just give up and cover already and send The Bernanke the bill.

  87. TJ - If you continually question the Master around here you will seem to be a Master Baiter. Be careful with that. I have heard it can make you go blind!

  88. LoL send bernake the bill....."Cheque Please"

  89. Interesting action:
    MGH (Minco Gold) has tanked lately and today it's up over 10%. Chinese gold, but they own a huge number of Minco Silver shares so it's a gold/silver mix. I bought in around 1.00 and am holding tight.

  90. The only thing Sprott would hand JPM is a $20 for a pizza delivery

  91. So if there is a delayed QE3 announcement to purposely mini-crash the markets, then obviously they would admit that the market can't be propped up by itself. How in the world would the media spin that?

  92. SGTBull07 has Bob Chapman in for a new 2 parter. Always interesting. I put nothing into the ugly slander of the man here and on other boards last week. Was very happy to see this latest foray went absolutely nowhere... Bob must've pissed off the PTB particulary bady in something he said recently.

    I would never ever throw Bob Chapman under the bus, he's been waking people up for 50 years now. Probably isn't perfect as a businessman, or a human. Ok, so who is?


  93. The price action of the past 3 days should make us all grieve for our country. I hope everyone here has written to the CFTC and has encouraged friends and family to do the same. We all know beyond a shadow of doubt that the CFTC's ruling will serve only to enrich the bankers who own them. Still, the right thing must be done for its own sake, if only by way of protest. I also encourage everyone to buy physical metal not only on the dips, but on the spikes as well. These evil shorts will only be squeezed to death when the bulls refuse to waver.

  94. Concerning the hypothetical derivatives, it may be that they need to hold the price for a certain length of time (ie: options that expire) and then they let the price go until they need to hold it for the next batch.

  95. My 2 cents for the day...Not over yet, another wave coming today. Take us to 35.20 area spot...maybe 34.80 Nibbled a little at 35.60 spot... Will take a big bite 35.20 to 34.80....agree that $50 is in the cards...GLTA

  96. TJ,

    Hey, with lines like that, you are winning us over mate.

    Any chance of removing or swapping out that awful picture? Just sayin' it cannot help but disrupt your perception and your flow in the eyes of your Turd Town beholders.

    You could change it to Hitler, Mao, or Stalin and be in much, much better shape. LOL

  97. Hey Rey,

    Glad to see an honest intelligent comeback from someone. Bring it! It's good intellectual feedstock for everyone.

    Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm just blathering on here about shit I know nothing about. It happens. Turd Town vets know that. I'm not in Germany or Egypt, and maybe you got firsthand knowledge. Maybe in Tahrir square they were sitting there saying "damn that dollar price of wheat!"

    I just figure if my daily wage comes in Euros or Egyptian whatevers, then the only thing that matters to me is the price of food and fuel in Euros or Egyptian whatevers. Getting my tinfoil hat on and worrying about, well it's really a dollar thing and my Egyptian whatevers are being whipsawed around and it's all an offshore conpiracy to starve my family, etc and now I need to go second derivative and worry about the dollar, etc. it's just not productive.

    Kind of like me here in USA getting all worked up about the Rothschilds or the Illuminati or the friggin Bank of England. It doesn't help me buy groceries or fill my tank or trade my account. There's some stuff you gotta just let go of.

    Still Turd Town buds?

  98. J.E.

    If JPM created a synthetic OTC derivative tying silver to inflation, it would have both BUYERS and SELLERS lined up, it would not usually take one side of the trade. With the CDS market in sub-prime securities, the sellers were the mortgage originators, the investors were big funds. During the housing crisis, JPM played it prudently (unlike Bear Stearns, ML, and Citi) and did not take significant risk on its own books.

    For silver, it would not make any sense to take such a massive and completely unhedgeable naked short position. Even if something is off balance sheet, it doesn't mean that Risk Management is not aware of its existence. If JPM's risk management was good enough to survive the sub-prime crisis, why would one think they would be stupid enough to ADD to a naked short they inherited from Bear Stearns?


  99. DOES JPM get saved by the bell? The QE bell in june? EVERYONE sell in may and go away,all stocks and commodities in anticipation of saving profits before QE ends and the elephants rush for the exit?

  100. Jimmy,
    You make a good point. There was the story about JPM buying a million tons of sugar, but what some failed to mention was that they were handling the deal for Cargill.

    So, yeah, their activities may be on behalf of clients.

  101. Looks like this "Wynter" fella is the likely party on the other side of this derivative agreement with JPM...seems to have a good understanding of the particulars. Probably the same BoS that purchased all those December 2011 contracts. I hope he's successful and silver skyrockets!!! Just a thought....

  102. We're settin up the same chart pattern as last week before the 34.03 marked the rocket to near 37 FRYday 3/4!! It looks like a bust up again near 38 FRYday day of rage through Monday open!! When I chased paper profits, I was a pattern swing trader!! Get ready for entry and blast off after tomorrows bankster games!! Doesn't mean the blast off can't take off sooner as the 35.50 area still holds!! Pattern similar up to this point as in mirror image!!

  103. @My.Harbl.Testes Hi. Am I crazy or are PSY and PSLV closed end funds and not ETFs?? Can you or someone else answer my question about this?

    Disclosure: long GTU and SVRZF

  104. thecoloredsky said...

    So if there is a delayed QE3 announcement to purposely mini-crash the markets, then obviously they would admit that the market can't be propped up by itself. How in the world would the media spin that?

    My .02 FRNs on this one:
    (12 point headline bold):
    (10 point Sub-Headline):
    MidEast Unrest Unhinges Stock Market

    They would never, ever openly admit that the QE3 announcement was delayed to spark a mini-crash. Ever.

  105. I've had my IRA account with Firstrade for several years.....its been good. Trades are $6.95. I don't think you can trade futures in your IRA but that's way beyond my level. I just keep it simple....long PHYS, PSLV, CEF, SLW, GPL, SVM. This blog is great! I've learned a lot and feel like I'm part of a family. Thanks to all.

  106. Bro. D wrote: "So, yeah, their activities may be on behalf of clients."


  107. The way I understand it is that local currencies are converted to dollars when the international trade happens. We have had foreign countries bullish on the dollar because they have been forced to use it for trade. The fact that these importers/banks are discussing settlements in other currencies means they can send all those accumulated dollars back home to be spent in our borders(bearish the dollar). In a related note, when they say China is buying treasuries it does not mean they hold them. What prevents them from say going to Africa and trading them for a gold mine. Greater fool theory on a global scale.

  108. Jai

    Oh you are so right! PSLV is a closed end fund, not an ETF. Totally misspoken some earlier posts, but still you buy it in your account just the same and that was the point. But it's a bit inside baseball to most. PSLV is at a huge premium and buyer beware. SVRZF is too thinly traded for most, but I like it. CEF is probably in a sweet spot right now. Half silver and not a horribly bad premium either. Especially as compared to PSLV.

  109. ewc58,

    Really? I mean, I know BB is evil incarnate, but at least he's got a loveable, teddy bear look to him. I mean just imagine if he looked like Tim Curry, or Christopher Walken or some other really evil-looking dude. When I see him testifying on C-SPAN, I really do find it hard to reconcile his evil nature with his cuddly, Papa Bear persona.

  110. Jimmy, thanks for your comments. I am thinking a little bit in your direction. I have seen other blogs where it was indicated that JPM is short 3.3 billion ounces of silver, something like 5 times the yearly world production. I don't know how the comex or futures markets work (wish i did, looks like fun!), but it is really hard for me to believe numbers like this. I think it would mean that someone is long for the same amount of silver, right? How could that possibly be??

    But regardless of whether there be a WB, or whether JPM is short on billions of ounces, the whole story is pretty entertaining ... :-)

  111. Falcon,

    Then let me go one step further. It's pretty much widely known in the investor community that QE is driving the market higher. If there was a delay then people wouldn't trust Bernanke anymore to essentially toy-around with their investments. One day its QE, the next it isn't and they lose everything. I would suspect that depsite media coverups and the like, less and less people will want to play their game, hence even more investments into PMs. A delay could really back fire I think which is why I don't think there will be a delay.

    But I do agree that it is *possible* the media could put blame elsewhere, but for godsake, its becoming so transparent now!

  112. Falcon15, I don't think the mainstream media even recognize how equities are being propped up by the Fed. Like you said, they would find some other reason for the crash like the mid-east crisis, or whatever.

  113. This comment has been removed by the author.

  114. @Jimmy,

    With 4 billions ounces short/forward sold in derivitives and 3 billion ounces in naked shorts, how can they NOT throw everything and the kitchen sink at silver prices. Who knows if they are doing the FED's bidding or not, these jackoffs are eyes deep in shit quick sand and sinking deeper as we speak, so logic serves no premise here, because their demise is on sight on the horizon right now.


  115. TJ

    I like Christopher Walken ... I think that would be a good look

  116. I don't think even a loss of hundreds billions could hurt JPM much as their notional derivative book is about 70 TRILLIONS if you look at the OCC data. I have no idea what is in that 70T madness but you can see a loss of hundreds billions in silver is minor in front of 70T. Also there's FED to provide backdoor fund so it's not really a back-breaker to JPM.

    The real deal I believe is still Dollar & Bond market. Look at the massive raid on gold and silver in 2008 right before Lehman, AIG, Fannie Mae and WAMU collapsed. EE had clearly realized the system would melt down so in order to prevent a catastrophe collapse of Dollar due to the debt crisis they front-attacked gold and silver. That way they scared the average folks away from gold and silver first to set them up for buying TBond only once Lehman, Fannie and so on came down one by one.

    The fact they attacked silver along with gold that hard tells me it's all about propping up the dollar rather than some individual bank's pervert commodity trade.

  117. Snick,

    Harvey Organ's latest blog indicates that JPM (and its clients) hold a short position of 25,000 contracts (or 125 million ounces) on the Comex. This number is not in dispute. The numbers which don't make any sense are the claims by WB that JPM stands to lose 5X more money when silver rises above 36, and 8X more money when it rises above 45. This can NOT be shown from Comex figures because futures contracts have a LINEAR PAYOFF, not an exponential one. The only way for the losses to be exponential is if there are many times more massive OTC (or off balance sheet) calls that have been shorted, and I just don't see it.


  118. Ding, Ding, Ding! Back to 36! I'm telling ya, it's a magic number.

  119. DITTO AC......"jackoffs are eyes deep in shit quick sand and sinking deeper as we speak, so logic serves no premise here, because their demise is on sight on the horizon right now." MuahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

  120. geez, greek 10yr @ 12.9%. It's been 12+ for some time but the breaking point surely must be getting closer.

  121. AC_Doctor,

    Can you please tell me where I can get confirmation of those figures? I would love to see it.

    "4 billions ounces short/forward sold in derivitives and 3 billion ounces in naked shorts"

    Also, forward contracts have linear payoffs, not exponential ones.


  122. TJ:

    Yeah, Really. I'm just struck by the appearence Vs. reality factor with your "cuddly Ben".

    Let's think it thru: who's done more to harm us now and strip away the birthrite of our Children? Those 3 mass murserers have nothing on him: just ask Rey the impact of his exporting of the inflation he created to the rest of the world. a world where food itself consumes a staggeringly high proportion of people's meager incomes. People are dying in greater numbers b/c they can't afford the basics. Thank you, oh Great Bernanke for killing off all those "useless eaters" so that we may live in Freedom and eat Taco Bell.

    Whether a controlled "news media" reports it this way is irrelevant: Bernank is the murdering head of a murderously exploitative financial system. And them's just the facts, whether we like 'em or not. So yeah, if you want the picture of one of history's great mass murderers as your icon, you are well covered with his.

  123. @Snick,

    I asked Harvey Organ your exact question about JPM, HSBC and other world banks being short 7-8 years of FUTURE production and he stated that these are tied to derivatives, naked shorts, shorting in the COMEX and a large portion of these shorts are tied to paper in the OTC markets. I hope this helps. The big banks are in some real big trouble. Harvey estimates a large portion of these shorts are in the $12 - $17 range of average, so covering at $36 inflicts some major financial damage to the banksters and it just keeps getting worse. A COMEX default will make paper silver worthless (ie. SLV-GLD and all paper markets) and physical metal skyrocket.


  124. @Jimmy,

    They are available through the monthly International Banking Settlement reports. (this may not be the exact name, but Harvey Organ sniffed this out himself).

    Happy hunting!


  125. So... To WB or not to WB?

    The excerpt Turd posted today was not the only one in which WB said that it would be very difficult for silver to trade above 36.

    As Jimmy's post points out, there some significant vagaries/omissions in WB's post. Aren't there always? I certainly do not have the answers to Jimmy's questions, only more questions. If JPM is shorting on behalf of clients, who would they be? Is it not suicidal to short such a fundamentally bull market?

    Of course the FED wants the price of silver suppressed. JPM wants the price held down. Maybe they have clients such as big industrial users that want the price held down. Splodeydope is right JPM=FED, so any losses JPM incurs will certainly be covered by creating new pixiedollars. So maybe they NEVER run out of ammunition.

    Who wants the price to rise? Just us retail buyers and the miners. Maybe some managed money, but I think they only wait to see what happens and then back the trend as they call it.

    I think Dr. Jerome is right, TA means very little as the market is not freely traded. It's an arm wrestling contest.

    In the meantime, this options trader is looking for another horse to ride. What do others think? Agricultural commodities?

  126. Afrum,

    You are brilliant ! My thoughts exactly. Things are setting up for the "Day of Rage" Friday. I think the EE knows this and started the suppression Monday to keep the price contained before the explosion, should things get ugly in Saudi Arabia on Friday. Indeed, we do live in very interesting times.

    I love this blog. We have some of the finest minds to be seen anywhere. That is why it is extremely important to keep the trolls out and to always be cordial and respectful even as we may disagree.

    There is so much to be learned here and vicious fighting and ad hominum attacks should be strongly discouraged or deleted by the Master. :)

  127. Did everyone catch this article about Oil on ZH?

  128. @Jimmy,

    Bank for International Settlements (BIS)quarterly reports.

    Good luck!


  129. All.
    This a must read in these interesting times
    If you haven't already

  130. ewc58,

    I don't disagree with much of your description of BB. Obviously the avatar is just a tongue-in-cheek homage to the Great Satan leading us to the lost "Japanese" decades ahead.

  131. I think it's interesting that after the one day that the PM fix was above 36 (Monday) silver has been pounded relentlessly. I guess they let the market get away from them over the weekend.

    Think what this weekend will bring. Anyone comfortable being long the stock market over this coming weekend? Maybe a selloff on Friday?

  132. AC,

    Thanks very much. I will take a look and report if I find anything useful.


  133. My .02 on the latest WB rumor. . . It's not even the same author!

    I noticed in the most recent missive the repeated misuse of *ounce* when the intention was to write *once*. This error was consistent throughout.

    I went back and read way more than I care to of old WB postings and not once did WB use that word, either correctly, or incorrectly. In every sentence where *once* could have been used, different phrasing was used instead.

    Personally, I've had enough of watching *As the WB Turns* and am going back to focusing on more important things. It's bogus folks, she's an Urban Legend!

    Plus Mrs Martel needs the phone line, so I gotta skedaddle!!

  134. @jai
    re: closed end funds vs etfs - i do not know and cannot enlighten you, but i think of the closed end funds as a subset of ETFs.

  135. Perth rounds seem to be of quality, as compared to others.

    I took a small position in gold miners today, might swing, close, carry depending on what I see. But I am leaning towards carrying over. I can't say the same w/ silver. From what I see, I don't like it enough to buy just yet, but I am watching.

  136. Would someone care to comment if biflation might be a harbinger of a crack-up boom, in that consumers are getting out of cash at a time when credit is maxed out?

  137. Jake the snake,
    Very possibly China is a client. They certainly have the cash and would want to get silver on the cheap.

    Alright, everybody, enough of this lollygagging. Let's get a rallly going! Here I go!

  138. AC,

    I saw the BIS data too, but I don't really understand how it can be possible. I mean, someone has to be on the other side of those 7 billion of short trades, right? Is there something preventing those folks from demanding delivery, or demanding cash payments for the difference between $12-$17 and today's price?

  139. RE: JPM short, FWIW an interesting post from ZH awhile back...

    by americhinaman
    on Tue, 12/14/2010 - 01:02

    "i'm new to this forum, but it's been impossible not to note the optimism for silver on ZH. while i'm sympathetic to the argument that monetary debasement leads to the need for alternative stores of value (real assets, which historically include precious metals), i think the JPM stories perpetuated here have made a heroic assumption that i can't find any evidence of.

    i've done a lot of research on the ETFs and ETNs from a previous job at a big wall street bank. from the ishares docs, i see that JPM is both the custodian of the silver in the trust AND an "authorized participant" (which means they are a market maker who can create or redeem units of SLV shares in exchange for the silver represented by such shares). this puts them in a unique situation where they can effectively arb the various silver markets... between SLV, SI- futures, and spot silver.

    i can tell you for certain, that the desk-level traders who run the arb are not authorized to accumulate naked short (or long) positions. if there is a naked short, it would come from the top... a head of trading or above. but based on the evidence, i cannot conclude that they have such a short. what i see is that JPM is running a 3-legged arb involving:

    1) physical silver

    2) SI futures

    3) SLV shares

    as needed, they take positions in zero-coupon treasuries with maturities matching futures expiry, to manage leverage and cash with the above.

    my conclusion is that JPM probably does have a massive position in the futures market... which causes headlines which might annoy the NYMEX or the CFTC. but JPM's unique position as the custodian of one of the largest physical silver stockpiles in the world (i.e. they could easily manage physical deliveries with little marginal cost) AND as one of the AP's that regularly create/redeem SLV for silver, means that they are in a unique position to run arbitrage positions using silver futures against their other silver holdings. without further evidence, i would guess that JPM is indeed running a massive arbitrage between the 3 silver exposures listed above and NOT a naked short.

    i would be curious if you can find evidence in the financial statements, suggesting that they do not have offsetting long positions as i assume. if not, i would be very careful buying into what i see as a phantom short squeeze."

  140. Marcel, FWIW the WB pseudonym is supposedly used by several different people, as stated by WB. Continuity is the message not writing style.

  141. So, we're back where we started at the last close, eh?

  142. Elanda,
    silver quest is a winner,I've held them for a year or two 100%+ gain. If you want info on miners go to 321gold he has archives going back to '01. Being new it's best to just accumulate on corrections-dips. Trading will kill you if you don't know what you are doing. We will probably have a serious correction within next 4 weeks going into a june 13th low according to Armstrong. You may want to wait to buy in low in a few weeks after this last little pop to the 40's

  143. I would like to than EA as well. I took an admitted small scale flyer on MNVWF, netted a nice 11% this morning and pulled my chips off the table. I may just dive back in heavier after a little more DD. Thanks again.

  144. skidmark, thanks for the info, saw that as well. Unfortunately, I am not well-educated enough in such matters to know what an arbitrage is. I *think* what this article means is that if JPM has as many shorts as people say, they also have corresponding long positions, so they can't lose all that much.

    But IF that is the case, and IF the morgue is behind the raids on silver, why would they be fighting so d***** hard to keep silver down?

  145. To all:

    I was using for streaming quotes on my Droid X and now it says that the applet must use IE, Firefox or Opera to function properly.
    This just started this morning. Anyone have any NO JAVA steaming quotes they could link up for use on my Droid X using Verison?



  146. Close above 36 spot silver means squat to bankster fraudsters at the crimex!! Last POMO today of 4th benron burnokio bucks run!! New schedule tomorrow to begin FRYday no doubt!! Remember though we still get approx 25 billion in supplemental POMO to primary dealers having begun 2/3 for 8 weeks!! Primary dealers deploy that hot cash as the dollar loses! As harvey O says, hot cash deployed as a vegan fleeing a SLAUGHTER HOUSE!! THOSE DEVALUING DOLLARS TO QUICKLY BE DEPLOYED!! To hammer PM's or not Thursday? Most Thursdays the vermin rat banksters do!! Must be standard operating procedure with hot cash inflow from dead head feds to primaries!!Keep it in mind!!

  147. So let's assume the WB $36 level is real. Doesn't this mean that JPM will be forced to pile on increasingly more shorts to keep the price below that level assuming demand doesn't drop off? Doesn't that in turn mean they will still die, albeit a slower death than if the price blasted through 36? Or can they just accept the losses and make it up in other places?

  148. SQIFF:

    Love it. Love it more now that I see Kumanari loves it :-) I bought it before the Yukon heated up last year, glad I did. Dumped it near the 52wk peak, plan to buy back in.

    A HUGE thing to consider when playing Yukon miners: seasonality hits these guys HARD. It's a short season up near the Arctic Circle. Based on my own hard-won experience, the key is to buy key Yukon players prior to what in the opinion of MANY will be a staggering run-up in Yukon players across the board in 2011.

    After last year, this season there will be so much $$$ flowing into the area and its players that the folks up there will think it's a green blizzard.

    Pick your horses now, and like Kum said of SQIFF, wait and watch for your best entry point. Even now SQ is about half of what it was in last year's Yukon hey days.

    After this Summer, we can pick up on the Seasonality play for Fall and Winter. In short, once the weather turns cold and the News Flow stops, look out below...

    Like for so many other things, the key is to get out at the peak.

    Anytime we'd like to really get into the Yukon plays, I'm ready and can't wait to see what others here think too!

    The Yukon, 2011: think $$$$

  149. Mark,

    If that's the case, why $36? Why not short at lower. If they can use money to fix something, then this isn't a problem.

    I don't think banks are the 'stupid'. They are always hedged, they just LOOK STUPID and NEGLIGENT, when they let things go out of control !

  150. As soon as the COMEX closes the lid comes off

  151. Mark,
    Assuming they can continue to entice investors into taking over their losing positions, and continueto siphon profits from those "other places".
    The CFTC is busy right now curbing speculation in the oil trade. Please call back later.
    Conspiracy/no conspiracy/manipulation or not, the goal posts keep moving, the dollars play hide and seek, and the big boys are throwing "Hail Mary's" on multiple fields right now.
    Yes, the Fed will save them, and yes, we will be left holding the bag. Lose the paper, fight for physical, and hold on to your optimism.
    The best thing that will come out of this mess is that we will return to thoughts of the really important things in life.

  152. NCdd,

    With ya, but I'm letting my 1.45 MNV ride for now. I figger Oil will keep giving good wind in the sails od most Energy plays. 'Course, watch, I'll be wrong.

    And anyway, I found EA's home address (Just Kidding EA, thanks for this pick Buddy! :-)

  153. AC_Doctor wrote:

    [ snip, snip ]

    The big banks are in some real big trouble.

    [ snip, snip ]

    A COMEX default will make paper silver worthless (ie. SLV-GLD and all paper markets) and physical metal skyrocket.


    March 9, 2011 9:43 AM
    AC, if I understand you correctly, a Comex default would also make worthless the silver futures contracts that the ETN AGQ holds. Is that correct? That is what I suspected, but I am seeking some confirmation of this suspicion.

    My understanding is that AGQ holds silver future contracts and nothing else. They as sure as heck do not own physical silver.

    Does anyone else have an opinion on this issue? Turd? Chin Music? Yukon Cornelius? Ferris Bueller?

    -- Paul D. Bain

  154. "Chin Music said...

    I like Christopher Walken ... I think that would be a good look"

    Bernanke was spawned by .......

  155. Silver has crossed $36 ten times, so far today...

    That's it... I'm off to Frisco to find Wynter and have a few words (and maybe a dance or two) with her!

    OMG... no shit... my Magic Word was "blenton!"

  156. RtR

    You are correct Sir. But 'round these parts, the term is CRIMEX :-)

  157. The arbitrage thing makes a ton of sense. If your JPM, you trash your own ETF, pick up silver on the cheap, sell it spot or in futuers.

  158. This comment has been removed by the author.


    This one's made the rounds already, but it's a reality check.

    Listen to all of the very bright traders around here, and listen to what they're doing with their paper profits. They know the game... They'll trade paper til they can't trade paper, and then land softly with their big bowl of shiny money to ride out the storm.

  160. SRV said:

    "Silver has crossed $36 ten times, so far today..."

    Silver - you just can't keep a good man down. It's like memory foam.... squish it down and watch it rise.

    Doesn't smell as nice as mama's bread but it sure is pretty...

    Blythe - I could use one more nice big dip baby. Don't make me hold onto all this Fiat for much longer. I know you can do it.

    Love and cuddles,

  161. Better yet, you sell your disounted SLV silver to Sprott for a premium.

  162. reason to burden yourself with WHY JPM is shorting the Silver market .....its clear that its an arbitrage and the Fed supports forgettabout it .....they ARE NOT GOING is the simple..they cannot control the longer term price of silver. The bullion is being bought at these artificial they will have to be elevated......dips will continue to be bought heavily and will be very temporary......Next big dunk will/may be at the 50 level......ultimately silver will be much higher than that.

  163. If you read Harvey, you know the silver "held" by SLV are a complete fraud.

  164. This comment has been removed by the author.

  165. Forget WB; let’s put together a list of FACTS conspiring against JPM:
    - The internet. The stuff we routinely discuss, routinely have given to us from Turk, Turd, Sinclair, Embry, Rickards; Roubini, ZH, et al was just not readily available not that many years ago. While it is true so many people are clueless, the worm is turning, the information is out there. This is THE game changer in my opinion.
    - Asia, particularly China. They have zero love for the West and hate the Western banks. The masses of people, who admittedly don’t have much manoey, do save and when they save they buy PM’s . And on an increasing basis. Asia central banks, Russian central banks, other giants, all buying PM’s.
    - Bankrupt sovereign states, countries, municipalities, etc. Death by fiat. There is absolutely no way to fix this. Fine, stop QE tomorrow, you default immediately. Don’t raise the debt ceiling, fine, you default tomorrow. A debt than cannot be re-paid will not be re-paid.
    - World-wide revolt against the elites, driven by hunger. Unstoppable.
    - PM’s particularly silver being hoarded exponentially and in backwardation; physical shortages will take these mothers down eventually. You can’t print oil you can’t print metal you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
    - This time IS different
    - Chime in folks what else

  166. Silver Monkey I'm careful with Harvey's read on that one. I don't think SLV holds anywhere near full value in physical and I don't think they are as empty as Harvey's story. I do think it's a combination of paper and phys. Scary enough that I mentally class it as paper but I don't slander it as virtually without physical support.

  167. afrum!!

    Does that stuff just roll off your tongue naturally like that? Or do you need to work with it for a while before you hit "post"? Either way, I luv it!

  168. China found a new way to get around the CRIMEX and buy physical, it SLV. Redeem 50,000 shares for real silver, not fiat ass wipe...


  169. To all my Turd Town Buddies:

    Yes, you already know I'm a CPA, and yes you maybe remember I said maybe a month ago that I wouldn't be posting as much because I'll be too busy until tax day is done. Turns out I haven't been that busy yet, and have remained a chatterbox anyway.

    BUT, as of today, I AM BURIED!!

    Anybody got a question specific to me, or even just a hi how ya doin? go ahead and put it up there and I'll catch up with comments as best I can and reply either late at night or very early in the morning. Bye Bye for now. Watch that $36 silver!

  170. @Eric - Cheers, mate. Glad you're here.

  171. @ Happy

    From Harvey last night:

    “and the SLV from yesterday:

    Ounces of Silver in Trust347,063,746.900

    Tonnes of Silver in Trust Tonnes of Silver in Trust10,794.89.

    We thus gained over 3.7 million oz of silver. This was recorded actually late last night.
    These guys are really good. They bought and loaded 3.7 million oz of silver into the London warehouse in one day. Sprott and Central Fund of Canada are desperately looking for silver and yet the SLV guys find this quantity and load their depositories in one day. They are simply outstanding folk.”

    Ok so it is plainly obvious that SLV is playing games with the numbers in regards to their inventory. So if they are willing to fudge the numbers on huge deliveries that they supposedly take, why would one think they would not be willing to “borrow” silver from their SLV vaults to deliver to the OI who is still standing for delivery from February? We already know that the deliveries in March for the OI have been almost non-existent! Therefore it is plainly obvious to me that the amount of silver held in SLV vaults is FAR LESS then what is reported!

  172. ewc and/or kumanari,
    Can you throw out some Yukno plays that you like? I'm sorry to be asking without contributing any myself.. but I don't have any Yukon plays. Most of mine are Canada/Mexico/USA and one loser from Tanzania. lol.

    I have bumped SQIFF up near the top of my "I Gotta Get This' list. So, thanks very much.

  173. ..Come back and play, Eric....whenever you can. ..You will be missed!

  174. @TF

    A request for you. It would great to have a thread where we can further share info on how to prepare ourselves for what is coming (other than having PM's and some cash on hand). I'd love to see a discussion(s) on safe drinking water, storing food, generating electricity (small amounts to run lights, charge batteries, etc), heat in the winter, etc ... you get the drift.

    Thanks for a great blog!

  175. To my last comment, I found this site useful in my preparations:

  176. Most of the time it just rolls off the key pad after typing so many views on blogs/mssg boards for a decade plus!! Today on some other boards I follow! Seeing paper fiat currency in meltdown; in the vaporizing white hot silver molten flow to paper money ashes! I suggested the best value play is to ease into some paper profit chasing position today!! No 2 weeks being exactly the same!! The FRY-day of rage in middle east cluster flockin mode says? bankster fraudsters are lickin vermin rat bastard rabid foaming at the mouth greedy lips to safe haven shorts; COVER!! Got to get some skin in the game before Thursdays bankster fraudster commodity play day!! It may not be the same pattern evolving as last week in the short camp!! Horses are fleeing the burning barn of fiat paper today as the middle east is goon-a mean buckets of blood flowing; if not empty drums of oil rollin off the blasted crude pipe lines!! Physical silver is my sword; piercing the heart of the bankster paper ponzi beast!!

  177. Pat,

    Totally right on ! Can't add to that right now. Terse, succinct, and to the point. Great post!

  178. Silver Monkey. I don't disagree with what you've just posted. What folks often mean when they refer to Harvey and SLV is his visit to the vault some years ago....which would if truly a measure of the total physical holdings be a complete fraud. What you've just posted is a little different. Thanks for elaborating.

    I continue to put SLV in the paper category in my daily decision making.

    Disclosure. I do not own and never have owned SLV.

  179. Afrum is our genius resident poet in prose. I love it !!

  180. @ewc85, kumanari, & ragedmaximus

    Thanks for the input on SQIFF, I will definitely keep a close eye on it. Would you guys know where I can see a balance sheet or an income statement on this company?


    I've passed 3 parts of the CPA exam, got 1 more to go! How long ago did you pass it? I'm 3 years out of grad school, should have passed it earlier but did too many happy hours. I'm pondering whether I should go for my CMA or CFA next? I'm not a fan of financial reporting and would much rather do budgeting/forecasting type stuff. Any thoughts or recommendations?

  181. What day is pay day in China?

  182. Jim Willie holds fast to his prediction of QE3. His latest: ..."Some advice. As the movement swirls, as the next QE program details are revealed, as the central bank model is shattered in discredit, as the global monetary system crumbles before your eyes, as sovereign debt worldwide loses its exalted safe haven security, as your personal budget finances erode beyond your worst nightmare, invest what is left of your life savings in Gold and especially Silver. In time, they will be the primary portions of your portfolio with surviving value. Each will rise, but Silver will do a moon shot!!..."

    Mar 9 Jim Willie

  183. afrum!!!

    I second Eric#1's final three words @11:23.

  184. @ Viking:
    Couldn't read through all the comments, but if Bill "wink wink" Gross is getting out of treasuries, its not necessary a sign of no QE3. It's probably a sign that he knows where to pile to make the most of the investment. I may be mistaken, but last I checked, PIMPCO has been piling into munis and increasing exposure. There is much postering and pontification that this is where QE3 enima will be planted...Then again, every asset category will get an enima in the long run.

  185. unum:

    Interesting re muni's / PIMCO — awhile back I was actually considering shorting them via an ETF.

  186. Yeah, I mean c'mon Eric The first, you become a fixture in our daily Turd lives and what, you're just gonna up and leave us?

    Only way I'll understand is that it's March 9, and as a CPA, 4/15 must be looming large for you and your clientele. So work if you must fella, just don't disappear!


    My pleasure! In addition to SQIFF, below are several that made really fine headway last season and should only resume kicking tail in '11.

    Start your DD soon and be powered up and ready. Because I promise you this: between roughly May and November this year, if there is going to be one good place to be "Overweight", it's Summer 2011 in the Yukon. Good hunting Ginj!

    Golden Predator
    Tarsis Resources
    Kaminak Gold
    Northern Tiger
    Aldrin Resources
    Taku Gold
    ATAC Resources
    Heatherdale Resources (AK, not Yukon)
    Alexco (has a very nice, growing enviro remediation biz, in addition to Bellekeno mine, the Keno Hill district and their strong Ag piece. They detox old mines and other industrial sites up there, probably also a good source of "metal intel" for the company in some of the past producing mines w/ lots of metal still there)

  187. Eric... Thanks for your contribution and insight.
    Kliguy38.. Right on..peeked at your profile.
    Pat...Well put.
    Afrum...Simply eloquent!!
    Nigel.. I 2nd your request..I'll try and pass along some links
    Moogle fishy... 36 is about their 5th line in the sand. You can't stop an army of ants baby!!
    Silver Monkey.. I too got got quite the giggle out of Harvey's "They are simply outstanding folk"

  188. afrum, as a fan of words, I find your tic-tactile sense of texture most enjoyable.

  189. elanda811,

    Happy to help! And, if you're gonna play "Reality Miners" (my pick over fantasy football :-) 2 things are a MUST as part of doing YOUR OWN due diligence:

    1. GO TO THEIR W/S!!! You MUST understand:

    a. People (Mgmt)
    b. Projects
    c. Share Structure (financially is where most miners fail)

    2. For any statements or financials somehow not found on the company w/s, go to CEDAR

    While doing that, keep coming here and you'll be well prepared to go to the next level of picking winners. Good luck.

  190. News on First Majestic


    Oh, and Cramer calling for the end of speculation in oil, and for Gov't to get rid of their futures

  192. ewc58 said...
    SGTBull07 has Bob Chapman in for a new 2 parter. Always interesting. I put nothing into the ugly slander of the man here and on other boards last week. Was very happy to see this latest foray went absolutely nowhere... Bob must've pissed off the PTB particulary bady in something he said recently. I would never ever throw Bob Chapman under the bus, he's been waking people up for 50 years now. Probably isn't perfect as a businessman, or a human. Ok, so who is?

    If I may just correct your misunderstanding and statements in your post re Bob Chapman.

    Ugly slander you say? Well, ugly yes. slander, no. My experience is a negative one, but not based in false statements. That would be slander.

    Perfection? Not expecting that in anyone. Honesty would be a better word and something I look for in any human being.

    Chapmans criminal activities have been documented in the press. It is not supposition, but rather fact. I suggest if your interested you do your homework in this area. It's all there. You don't have to look far to find it.

    As for a foray? (sudden attack) Hardly. Rather, a sharing of information, as that's what this forum is all about, right? Making money, not losing it.

    As for the 'Bob Chapman Bashers on other boards?
    You should verify your facts before you call others names. That is not why were here, and I think if you would re-read my post, that would be clear. I have much better things to do with my time than dwell on Mr Chapman.

    Throw Chapman under a bus? I never mentioned that. Jail time would suit his crimes more appropriately than being thrown under a bus.

    As for the good he is doing waking people up... I would have much rather stayed asleep, and kept my money. I would have rather my friends and family stayed asleep also, and kept the hundreds of thousands of dollars they lost also. There are many HONEST people doing the same thing as Chapman, only they're not stealing money and getting paid along the way as Bob has/is.

    Not everyone gets as close or knows Bob Chapman as some of us. His radio personality draws (sucks) many in, as it did us.
    But there is danger in that, and that's what I and others are warning about.

    The fact is...Bob Chapman has many financial casualities that your unaware of, that he will NEVER mention. This is my/our purpose in sharing our experience and the very very UGLY side of Robert Chapman of the International Forecaster. Not slander, not bashing.

    I hope this helps you better understand.

    Happy Trading To All!!!

  193. @ Nigel and Vincent et al: Head over to my go-to place for Survival/Preparedness - some great folks there:
    Survival Monkey - and be sure to check out the forums! You could do a lot worse. Luck to you all! Waiting for the silver rocket to blast off!

  194. ewc58 @ 12:12:

    I'll definitely be looking at Alexco.

    I have mixed feelings regarding investment in miners without looking carefully at each, due to the potentially significant environmental destruction these processes can cause.

    On the other hand, my personal carbon footprint is less than a typical European's, so I suppose I can cut myself a little bit of slack.

  195. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  196. This comment has been removed by the author.

  197. Falcon 15 : you know anything about Burkey(sp) filters ? Size ,filters etc.


  198. I have spent the last few hours doing some intense TA on PMs, oil, Ag futures, and the S&P500 and have come up with the following suspect conclusion.... afrum's posts are 98.7% correlated with Charlie Sheen's interviews.

    note: this comment has been revised, as I read afrum's posts with genuine interest, but only rubberneck at Sheen interviews as if they're bad car accidents. please keep 'em coming afrum. thanks.

  199. Earth First!
    We'll mine the other planets later.