Saturday, May 28, 2011

Saturday Charts and The Sunday Night Massacre Revisited

First of all, I've made it clear now that I believe everything from mid-April to mid-May was an orchestrated, manipulative event courtesy of our friends in the bullion banking cartel. I've summarized my feelings here and I stand my opinions and my projections.

Along these lines, I found found Ted Butler's consenting opinion via Harvey:
Harvey also posted a letter to the CFTC from GATA member James McShirley. This is a must-read for those of you who have suspected that the daily price swings around LBMA fixes seem too consistent to be "natural".

Here is a follow up letter sent by GATA member James McShirley to the CFTC:

Dear Sirs, Madams,
This is a follow-up to the letter I sent you last Friday, May 20th. I have subsequently compiled data for all of 2010 regarding the highly suspicious Comex gold trading. In particular, I have focused this time on the London AM and PM fixes. As you probably know the AM fix occurs at 10:30 AM London time, prior to Comex trading. The PM fix occurs at 3:00 PM London time, putting it squarely in the middle of Comex trading hours. Many gold watchers have for years noticed peculiar Comex selloffs into the London close, along with sudden weakness after the London market closes. To see the intensity of Comex selling statistically is rather stunning. Keep in mind this data occurred during a year when gold 
rose 26.7% y/y. As you will see gold prices rose almost entirely outside of Comex trading hours. The Comex "price discovery" was, and continues to be a one-way street lower. I reiterate that the short seller(s) in suspect are certainly well-funded, HFT savvy, and without care for true price discovery.
Total trading days 254
Trading days PM fix over 2% higher than AM fix ZERO
Trading days PM fix over 1% higher than AM fix 2
Trading days PM fix either lower, or no higher than $5 211 (83.1%)
It should be obvious to anybody with a trained eye for sleuthing that something is badly wrong here. I find it incredible that for all of 2010 only TWO out of 254 trading days resulted in a PM fix higher than 1%. There was an 83% chance of either a lower close, or very minimal gain. This is totally consistent with the trading patterns for the first 5 months of 2011. Since the beginning of 2010 gold has rallied 41.5% without a SINGLE PM fix above +2%, and only 7 above 1%. There is an obvious seller who wants ALL Comex trading days capped at 1%. This is illogical from a trading perspective, and defies all fundamentals, technicals, and news-driven events. I can't imagine a more obvious example of tape painting, and am again requesting you investigate Comex gold trading manipulation in addition to the silver investigation. I realize your tools for identifying manipulation are undoubtedly sophisticated, so you should have no problem modeling the odds of this happening in a free trading environment. It must be so many standard deviations off norm that you will give up counting zeros on the end. The advent of HFT systems has only accelerated the trend of manipulative trading by gold short sellers. Until the CFTC or anybody else decides to crack down I am confident this tape painting will not only continue, but worsen.
Any CFTC ruling (and crackdown) on concentrated short silver manipulation will likely put a chill into the gold manipulators as well. That doesn't mean however, that gold manipulators should be exonerated. The quickest, and 
only way to restore faith in the U.S. financial markets is to finally prove to investors that manipulators, including short sellers, will be held accountable. That, for many years now, has been nothing more than wishful thinking.
James C. McShirley

There is also this, straight to you from the desk of Santa:

Dear Friends,

Long speculated upon in our community, the rock and the hard place has finally become a reality. An economy not accelerating at an accelerating rate is declining at an accelerating rate. The mirage of a recovery is getting harder and harder to MOPE about. It simply is not there. We are entering a declining phase that will not end in any kind of a soft landing.

Stimulation monetarily, QE, and fiscal are like controlled substances in that the real high is on the first injection. After that, each additional stimulation of an economy must be multiples of the first stimulation in ever increasing size just in order to hold the line. QE3 is guaranteed unless the powers that be want to see a depression that will make the Great Depression look like kindergarten in the pain department.

This week we saw a European Bank forced to sell their US mortgage derivatives and the loss was a shocker. These pieces of crap are not worth the digital bits they are written on. Smart money has not let this event pass their view, and know now how broke the US financial system really is. This event broke the camouflage of FASB's selling their souls out to politics by allowing the banks to value their mortgage derivatives at any price the bank wanted on the bank's cartoon balance sheets. The western balance sheets of their financial institutions are raging misstatements. The system is broke. This is why there is no recovery of merit but rather a statistical aberration, which was until recently only holding the line.

Here we are at that place we have anticipated for the past 45 years knowing that all the games being played had to play out at that point where super stimulation had no effect and it became totally appreciated that even many trillions of printed money will only impact the currency and not business.

The rock and the hard place is a time when the Western World is simply screwed.

The risk of not stimulating is stagflation at a spiritual level. The risk of stimulating is stagflation at a spiritual level. The risk of doing nothing is both an economic and currency collapse of biblical proportions.

This is what the three illustrations of the skier teach. Should the Fed lose control of this, which is predictable, then currency induced cost push inflation would take gold to Martin Armstrong's $12,500.

The odds are 70/30 right now that hyperinflation occurs. That takes gold over $1650. If the odds shift then gold starts a run to balance the International Balance Sheet of the USA and will secure Martin Armstrong's target of $12,500.

And here are some quick, daily charts. My Lind site is down temporarily so I had to use futurestradingcharts. They don't give me much room to write so I will leave much of the interpretation to you. The POSX looks particularly bad and, if you're stocking up on beef, now is the time to do it!

I hope you have a safe and fun weekend. Please try to take a moment to remember all those who have died in the service of their country. TF



  2. Thank you Turd!

    anyone have idea which bank Santa referring to?

    European Bank forced to sell their US mortgage derivatives

    enjoy the weekend all

  3. Any cattle (beef) ETFs you folks recommend looking into?

  4. Just a brief thankyou and a sobering word of caution to everyone. When reality does indeed begin to take over the Ponzi we will enter the Kondratiev winter and I hope all of you realize that this will be unlike any period in your lives or any period you can probably imagine. Pray and hope that somehow our world manages to get through this period without completely imploding. This will be end o days stuff if we slide into chaos. So in a sad way I am rooting for the strategy of extend and pretend now....knowing it will fail but hoping the outcome is not catastrophic as it might be...

  5. @Phantom

    If I read correctly, the Fed's printing is causing inflation, more printing will cause more inflation..

    But mostly I'm trying to figure out where the next bubble could come from allowing folks to spend like drunken sailors. Now that they are maxed out on home loans, the only place I can think of that is a "store of wealth" is pensions and IRAs and 401Ks. If they changed the laws to allow easy withdrawl or "loans" against that amount, you could end up with an "IRA loan bubble", and folks would be off to the malls again... for at least a couple of years. And if folks think their money will be worth nothing when they get it at retirement, they might be happy to take it out and live it up now.

    Well, I'm going out in the sunshine and think happier thought...

  6. Can anyone explain this comment from Santa?

    "The odds are 70/30 right now that hyperinflation occurs. That takes gold over $1650. If the odds shift then gold starts a run to balance the International Balance Sheet of the USA and will secure Martin Armstrong’s target of $12,500"

  7. Happy Memorial Day Turdites! Thanks Turd for the update. Lots and lots of somber reading this morning..thanks for bringing it all together.

    Just wonderin' CNBC just totally schizophrenic, or just completely sold out? They never cease to amaze me. Prolly old news for some, but as a newcomer, its laughable. what gives?

  8. Trapped Inside An Economic Prison - Nigel Farage

    A collage of speeches by UKIP Leader Nigel Farage MEP in the European Parliament in Strasbourg and Brussels as Co-President of the Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group (EFD). Excerpts relate to the euro currency crisis leading up to the bailouts of Greece (May 2010), Ireland (November 2010) and Portugal (April 2011).


  9. SushiSioux, I had the same thought. I hope someone else here who is an even bigger news junkie than I can answer this. I like to have the original data for my records.

  10. SushiSioux,

    Could it be this article?

  11. Pretty sure Santa = Jim

    LaMachinna - when i first stared "investing" probably 15 years ago, I watched SquakBox religiously. If you're a complete nOOB then I think you can learn a lot. But of course, as with anything, you need to learn to read between the lines.

    No way I can watch anything on CNBS these days. Occasionally I'll catch a clip posted online, but most of the time it's painful. It's prefabricated crap. It's group-think to the Nth multiple. The only thing on can gain from it IMO is to realize just how vacant some of these people are and how their views toward what's really going on are bass ackwards.

  12. Thanks again TF.

    While on the subject of metallic music,
    the ecstasy of gold by Ennio Morricone
    not to be forgotten. Ahhh, 60's and 70's
    USA. Clint, Mash, Taxi, Hill St Blues,
    Alias Smith and Jones........I even spent
    6 months of a very misspent youth working
    in a hotel on Central Park West, doing
    painting and decorating mostly. Quite some
    experience at that time and place, really
    not so sure quite why I came back. Hope
    I see it all again one day. Who knows.

  13. Quick question guys... I have read that possibly the government will devalue gold at a certain point in order to get people to trade in for dollars and before possible confiscation to make it easier to get it back from the people. Then afterward the govts would revalue gold much higher to cover government debt. At which point the the government comes out with new currency backed by a much higher valued gold. After all this has happened then do we trade in our gold/silver for new curency? Does this make sense?

  14. @ terri

    Don't believe it's gong to happen that way. When FDR recalled it in the 1930's it was currency, it's not now. Additionally, in the big picture it's the banks and all their friends at the top that hold all the big weight. Not mom and pop.

  15. Dr Durden,
    Regarding CNBS, the one time they actually said something right, the Tea Party emerged. Imagine what daily honesty with America would lead to (other than losing a lot of revenue from their current advertisers).

  16. Gold will shoot up to $3000. There will always be ARTIFICAL corrections. These corrections can be up to 20-40% from the peak, even in a bull market.

    Being that we just had a big correction, I'd have to say the best strategy is get as long as possible at these artifically low prices, and stay long.

    Trying to be a short term trader in these type of markets will clean out 95% of people. Some are sharp enough to do it, but it should be left to the professionals.

    These markets are rigged - that's for certain. Patience is something we all need to work on. $150+ oil coming within the next year - gold to shoot pass $2000, Silver will definitely be making new highs.

    Beef is to be taken to astronomic prices. The "Cartel" as turd calls them, do not want people to have the leisure of eating beef. They say we will be a vegetarian society in the future. Figured I'd throw that in, being that this beef correction seems to be over as well. Good luck everyone :)

  17. Complaining about the LBMA gold fixes is not going to change the way the bullion banks fix the market. They have been doing this for over a decade.

    I've been trading these fixes along with the banks, making 4-figures a day on average for quite some time. I take these paper profits and buy more phyzz.

  18. Sugar is a great investment as well. Prices seem to be bottoming there. Coffee might be bottoming too, along with Cocoa.

    Bottom line: we got a bull market across the board in commodities, and it will probably last another three to seven years. Agriculture prices are going to shock all of us.

    There are also the commodity currencies. With the massive leverage given in the futures, these make for some great investments as well.

    Look into the Australian Dollar (AUS), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Swiss Franc (CHF) seems like one of the strongest.

    #1 picks for the next year or two: Natural Gas, Sugar, Rice, Silver & Gold, and the currencies stated above.

    I'm a steak lover, so I'll buy some LE beef futures for some free steaks :)

  19. DP - Good find - I dont know seems plausible.

    Dexia SA (DEXB), the bank that took the most Federal Reserve discount-window help in October 2008, said it will take a charge of 3.6 billion euros ($5.1 billion) for the anticipated sale of mostly U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities and disposals of long-term bonds, loans and units.

    Santa indicated forced sale of 1) "derivatives" versus "securities" 2) this week versus provision to be taken in 2Q 2011. 3) *took* the loss versus anticipated sales.

    I'd assume it was a german landesbanke - they have a lot of crap on their books that is being punted from one accounting entry to another.

    but its news junkie trivia => whens an american bank going to voluntarily own up to their problemos?


  20. * AUD is the ticker for australian dollar, mistakes. When will I stop making them?

    @Fast Mover

    That seems like a great strategy.. it seems like they take it down a lot around 12am-4am est time.

  21. @ck

    I developed a simple system that takes advantage of the inefficiency created by the LBMA fix. I spent quite a while backtesting and improving the positions taken. Now I don't even try over thinking it, I just auto-trade and let the results speak for themselves.

  22. That tape-painting has been going on for at least a decade. I have seen normalized charts of interday averages that show it very distinctly. I just cannot figure out what the game is. Someone must be working some kind of price-manipulation arbitrage based on the PM fix and COMEX close, but I have no idea what it is.

  23. Fast Mover, please give us a hint.

  24. Great post TF

    General question for anybody out there:
    Does Rick Ackerman know his stuff or is it all a crock of stuff?

  25. Does anyone else think that Sunday/Monday will witness some major shenanigans by the EE on the commodities complex? Or am I just being paranoid after Bloody Sunday?

    If I were them, I'd hit gold.

  26. This guy SC at Cyclical Market who was linked earlier, is calling for a 30% correction in silver next week and bottom at $26-27. Then it's time to go long. That's a pretty bold call. You can read the comment thread here:

  27. @tpbeta
    Don't know what, but action on the eve of a 3 day US (only) holiday makes me think something nasty will happen Sunday/Monday

  28. @ Jive

    It may sound "easy" when describing trading the LBMA fixes.

    You have to have a money management plan, be willing to stand 50% drawdowns and if you are located in the Western hemisphere, deal with the early open (05:30 EST).

    Although I would say this is the simplest system that I have ever developed and implemented, it is by the hardest that I have ever used in the sense I want to keep tweaking it or self-sabotage through greed/fear.

    Also a holiday in London. Sound familiar?

  30. Observing volume on the daily gold chart indicates very low volumes on a big rise without the presence of any real resistence or significant raids. I'm not sure this current run will move much higher short term without a significant smash downs first. From Wednesdays low of $1515 to Fridays high of $1539 that is a sigificant move and at $1539 I would say it had reached Turds short term objective of $1540 - $1545.
    Traders may want to look at Ira's latest for a better explanation.

  31. @ tybeta
    Foxtrot Alpha
    Keep that seatbelt low & tight

  32. Could someone explain the most fundamental question about this bullion cartel, which so many here say holds down PM prices:

    How exactly do they make a profit?

  33. July Silver Open Interest (OI) is doing that thing again: it's expanding. As of the 27 May Preliminary report, July SI OI stood at 63456 contracts.

    Multiply those number of contracts by 5000 ounces, and July silver OI currently represents 317,280,000 ounces of silver.

    Now we turn to Harvey's latest accounting, to learn that COMEX silver inventory available for delivery is down to just over 31,102,000 ounces.

    These numbers seem significant. :-)


  34. Looks like Greece is within days of going under:

    Spiegel Greek Hit Piece #2: Bailout Troika Finds "Greece Missed All Fiscal Targets" - Next Steps: Game Over?


    This could be the ammo to dropkick silver and pump the dollar in the short convenient we have a three day holiday.....

  35. @pasttense

    PM prices are suppressed because the LBMA banks bullion on a fractional reserve basis. This dilutes the true physical supply with paper bullion, and like with the fed's printing press, the increased supply lowers the value.

    Because the bullion banks control the supply of paper bullion, they can make additional profit by supplying more paper bullion under normal conditions. However, when the metal is in backwardation like silver is now, this is no longer the case.

    I linked to VictorTheCleaner's blog in the last thread which goes into detail about backwardation and bullion banking. You can see the comment here:


  36. Thanks TF, Great Blog.

    You have been a really helpful resource in my quest for Strategy.

    Looking for more.

  37. @kiwi#1

    The new credit bubbles are in the third world. Take a look at real estate prices in diverse areas in any of the following countries: Chile, South Africa, India, Costa Rica, China, Brazil, Panama, Turkey, Mexico, etc. There are houses for sale in Soweto (The slums), South Africa, for more than a similar sized placed in Miami, Florida. In Playa Del Carmen, Mexico its like 2005 in Vegas, all over again. You don't even have to look too hard to realize that most people in Soweto don't make what the average person in Miami does each year. This is what ZIRP is doing with the dollar carry trade. The new middle class in these countries are as drunk on credit as we were in the last 20 years in the US.

    By the way, many of these countries did not even have credit cards available to the general public, 5 years ago. Now almost all of them can sign up and walk out with a visa, by stopping in at their local malls.


  38. @ anyone who's on the fence whether silver is "manipulated."

    Watch YT'er BrotherJohnF's latest video about this past week's analysis of the raid/slam on Thursday and what a similar sell off would look like in other assets....ex the DOW dropping 800+ points in an instant, on thin volume, with no news, in the middle of the night.

    Also watch his other vids going back. He's a stacker and really understands the big picture as well as the micro-fundos. Highly recommended.

  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

  40. If Greece is in fact going under in days (I'm 100% certain it will happen very soon), are we for sure going to see Gold & Silver down?

    It's sort of a double sided thing. Gold was heading up at points when the dollar was rallying against the euro. While I wouldn't be surprised by a small dollar rally because of a falling euro, I really wonder if this will translate into gold and silver falling.

    I definitely have a pretty bad feeling in the short-term for some reason.

  41. The issue with Greece down, euro down, dollar up, silver down has been discussed, and the consensus seems to be that silver might take a hit, but not as bad as POSX rises. Some of the money leaving the euro will go into PMs rather than other fiats as things worsen.

    However, dont underestimate the black swan. If people see PMs take a hit in the face of greece defaulting, that selling might stack up, driven by fear alone.

    I'll be very very weary the comming week.

  42. Oh, and another thing. The house will have a vote on the debt ceiling this week. Dont know the date. However, if i understand it correctly, the vote is initiated despite expectations of the proposition _failing_ to pass. Its a simple ruse from the supporters of a raised ceiling, but if the speculators take the results too literally, i'd expect PMs to take a hit.

    If you're flat going into this weekend, i'd expect some good opportunities along this week.

  43. @Jimmy

    I'm betting you meant "wary", but "weary" kind of works too, watching and thinking about the possibilites is wearing me out... ;-)

  44. A very succinct summary of the state of the US (and global) financial system:

    Have a great weekend everyone.

  45. Kiwi, yes, ofc. :) English isn't my native language. I'm from Sweden. :)

    Anyone finds any date/time of the Debt limit vote, please let us know!

  46. I guess the question is, how badly are we getting played? are we doing exactly what they want with all the "Crash JP Morgan", and the "modern day Hunt brother", ect...

  47. Sakit, what would their angle be if they wanted us to buy physical silver? No matter if we're being "played" or not, i cant see much downside in owning physical silver to owning paper money the way things are going. So i'll take my chances with silver atm.

  48. Peru's people are not happy--anyone own Bear Creek?

    Demonstrators paralyse Peruvian border town

    ( )

  49. Don't know if this has been discussed, but Hong Kong started gold futures on may 18th. Since then I was thinking gold would be the place to be, rather than silver. Too much manipulation going on, but the manipulation continues in everything regardless.

    All I know is investing in gold is like double shorting the USD. Same goes for oil. Looking at the charts over the past 6 months shows that. The leverage on gold with gold futures makes it the superior of the two. I recommend gold futures or long term GLD options @ a high price.

    Perhaps we're not at the best entrance point and there will be some more falling in prices, but the long term gains will certainly outweigh that possibility if invested properly.

    The USD will crash over the next year and a half, but unexpected to most, the euro will crash first.

  50. Any thoughts of the long term prospects of gold vs silver?

    What is the optimal percentage of gold vs silver in one's holdings?

  51. @pasttense

    Silver will most probably prove to be the better holding % wise, simply because there is less of it, and because of the industrial uses it has that are eating up supply.

    Silver right now is 31.5% below its all time high... Gold is right near its all time high. So, based on those factors alone you'd want to own more silver.

  52. chele, on his blog, Yukon links a great site imo (Thanks Yukon):

    peruse through IKN's blogroll, some pretty good stuff to keep abreast of what's going on in South America.

    JNG, Jimmy, commodities/silver might get smashed upon greek default, us debt ceiling fears, but both examples premised on a 'default'. Ergo, no faith in currency and thus traders piling in to the next safe haven.

    Surely euro traders will sink funds into US$ as well as gold - so if gold continues to rise, silver usually follows, but at what ratio?

    Could see concerns of Greek/US default at the same time, and where does one park worthless currency?

    Odds are quite high neither happens, greek does not default & the US raises the debt ceiling & its business as usual.

  53. CK:
    Thanks for your comments.

    The point about industrial usage though: if the world economy collapses then silver industrial usage is going to collapse too. Conversely gold doesn't have much in the way of industrial usage, so a decline there wouldn't hurt it much.

    Caramel: Odds are quite high that Greece does not default? Huh? All the sources I have read say default is going to happen; it is simply a question of when and what precise form it takes. So while Europe may kick the Greek can down the road for maybe a year or so; there is no way it can do that for much longer. Why do you think differently?

  54. "So while Europe may kick the Greek can down the road for maybe a year or so; there is no way it can do that for much longer."


    We're on the same page; I was referring to default in the immediate term ie. by July/August. Overall, the trend is towards an eventual default but not before everything is owned by creditors.

    Similarly, extremely remote US defaults by August, but we all know there will be an eventual default.

  55. Ok bears. Where were you when silver was at 50?
    Another cycles blogger on here also told us silver was going to 36 at 40, then we hit 50. You can draw a bunch of pretty charts, but there's no reason for silver to hit its 200 dma overnight. Not saying there's always reason in this market, but give silver a chance. Let gold do its thing. gradually decrease your position and don't leverage here.
    Wow, someone's predicting the Dow bubble bursting. Shocking! This does not mean you should short silver overnight and get taken to the cleaners if you're wrong.

  56. Just in case ya'll missed Blythes new hat

  57. In reading all the comments of sovereign debt default, currency failures, agriculture commodity increases, PM manipulation, the whole works,,, I'm in agreement, we're getting closer to the edge of the cliff.

    TPTB know it too. But, but, but they aren't TPTB for nothing. They are in control, at least for now. Something big will come out of the blue, they're setting the stage for it. I think it will be war. A war they will try to manage and manipulate just like they do markets. But it may get away from them this time. Historically, wars have cured economic ails and they are usually started by a false pretext. The masses patriotically unite behind their governments as people forget their personal situation and struggle for a perceived greater cause.

    They will stop at nothing to keep their power and maintain status quo as long as possible. I'm not trying to sound apocalyptic, I'd rather we just had a massive economic reset and start over with sound economic practices. I just don't see that happening. I hope I am wrong.

  58. Prize Fighter said...

    This guy SC at Cyclical Market who was linked earlier, is calling for a 30% correction in silver next week and bottom at $26-27. Then it's time to go long. That's a pretty bold call. You can read the comment thread here:
    May 28, 2011 7:39 PM

    Seriously? Maybe the market will crash next week.

  59. FastMover. I can just marvel at the ignorance sometimes. Its like saying - I can see my neighbour committing a crime but will not do anything about it because I profit from it!!

    Your attitude of why complain - use it to your advantage. Can you see the moral decay in that. This has been happening for far too long - and its not about the crime anymore - but the psychology that now that its so ingrained lets just use it to our advantage. Its a wonderful world we live in!!!!

  60. Good morning / evening depending on where you are!

    Thanks Turd for taking time on a weekend to post and share your thoughts again.

    I asked on the last post if anyone watches the Indian or Arab exchanges on a weekend for signs, if they are even relevant, of what the open brings.

    I found this article about PMs increasing in India on Saturday

    I know BM cannot affect these markets so maybe it's just a sign of what SHOULD be happening!

    Anyway enjoy your weekend all.

  61. Bear fest?
    was 95% of the last 64 posts just predicting silver to fall "hard" next week?
    or am I just seeing it wrong?

    correct me if i'm wrong:

    US markets and LME will remain closed on Monday, 30 May

    so does that mean that EE out of asia will drop it Sunday night?

    or does it mean that normal Asia overnight buying will be out in full force and have the Monday too for it self?

  62. @ pasttense

    Your first question needs a definition of "long term" I think the gold market will be in a long term bull until 2025.

    Your second question has a lot to do with the G/S ratio.

    This G/S ratio is pretty flat but still I am heavy gold. I don't trade my physical holdings going %100 silver or %100 gold.


  63. @Kurt I know! Many people expecting a drop after what happened the last 2 holiday weekends.

    I also believe that as humans we look for the answers we want, so those of us who want it to go up will search for as much positive news as possible for reassurance. And those who are short, seek as much negative news.

    However, longer term I think we are bullish.

  64. For the record I changed my name and avatar here to that of a character I like more than Huxley Ann (though the two are connected in a very profound way.)

    So I'm no troll or double poster I'm just a verb in motion.

    Jai/Brad/Chrisopher/Huxley Ann


  65. Bingo/Hux

    I'm so confused....


  66. Hux / Bingo

    Do all your personalities share the same position on silver?!

  67. My 2 1/2-year-old daughter loves the Sesame Street avatars!

    She's gonna be a goldbug. I just know it.

  68. Food prices..

    Food prices are expected to hit new highs in the coming weeks, tightening the squeeze on UK households and potentially triggering further unrest in developing countries unless there is heavy rainfall across drought-affected Europe, the United Nations has warned.

    The average global price of cereals jumped by 71% to a new record in the year to April, more than three times higher than a decade ago, according to latest UN figures, prompting its Food and Agriculture Organisation to warn that Europe faces a pivotal few weeks.

    With the dry spell forecast to continue for several weeks across Europe, Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the FAO, said: "Europe is entering a very critical month. We can't do without rain any more. If the current situation continues prices will respond very aggressively."

    "Our fear is that we still haven't seen the worst of food inflation in vulnerable countries and that could be coming. One way or another, rising food prices bring hardship on their people and you can't rule out the possibility of further food riots. A lot depends on the next few weeks and it's impossible to predict how Mother Nature will behave," Abbassian added.

    The UN warning came after the release of data showing that the amount of speculative money that has been pouring into basic foodstuffs – and other commodities – also hit a new record in April, putting additional upward pressure on prices that are already being forced higher by the prospect of further crop failures.

  69. Just in case anybody thought change was on the, think again.

  70. A little something for those following the grain markets.

  71. Think progress is a liberal think tank. How's that change you voted for in 2008 working out for you?

  72. Harald
    The blog seemed a little sleepy this morning. I figured that link would wake things up a little bit.

    My point is that the change that people thought they might get in 2008 AND 2010 is destined to disappoint.

  73. @ Fast mover

    negative ghost rider. The pattern is full.

  74. Thanks turd for your continued insight. It has been hard for me personally to get too excited about Silver with all the shenanigans going on. At least there is a little light at the end of the tunnel, and the fundamentals are still very sound.

  75. And my point was that one of the things I like about this blog is that TF tries to keep politics out of the discussion.

  76. @harald

    dinnit vode fer no change in ought 8 but sure votin' for obamaman in 2012

    A tip of my hat to you honey chile and you be good so your momma be prouds of you.

    Bingo Pajama

  77. There is no hope for Greece. Their greatest export continues to be skilled labor. Place your bets accordingly.

  78. @ bbdgoco’s comments on war:

    I don’t think this fiscal mess makes all-out war imminent. Nuclear arsenals assure mutual destruction and act as a deterrent. Now if we give up our nukes, then yes, we’re done. By all-out war I mean military action to the scale of WWIII. Fiscal war has been on-going and will most likely ramp up and become even more blatant. Look at the currency manipulation that is on-going… and the counterfeit products coming over here from Chinese companies while Chinese officials turn their heads the other way.

    Wars are too unpopular, especially large scale wars. It took Pearl Harbor to get Americans behind a war that we were destined to enter anyway. Was that gross stupidity on the part of our military leaders or a brilliant strategy to get Americans committed with a vengeance. Assuming the later for a moment, to create an analogy… I think the next “Pearl Harbor” will be the government at some point suddenly ending QE to allow the markets to crash. They then use the crash as an excuse to raid 401Ks and IRAs with the pretense of protecting the wealth of the people. I wouldn’t assume outright confiscation, but government controls and requirements that funds be invested in less volatile U.S. treasuries as opposed to stocks.

    Imagine the amount of deficit spending that could be floated under this scenario. This scenario was kicked around after the market crash of ’08 and I cannot imagine it not unfolding in some fashion as a last ditch maneuver. I’ll gladly pay the 10% penalty to get my money out if this does come about.

  79. Just a reminder for anyone holding Peruvian miners that IKN is the place to stay on top of the situation. I think the runoff election is June 5th.

  80. TF,
    you made a comment in an earlier post saying that you hoped that folks took your advice and purchased silver @ 34 and I just wanted to tell you that I most certainly did but I bought @ 33.40. I told a friend of mine about your site and advice and he thought he knew better than you and bought @ 46 just before it dropped. I asked him why the hell he did that and apperantly his "advisor" told him to. Now he has to wait it out but it will get there. Thanks again.

  81. "remember all those who have died in the service of their country"...And if they see the real freedom they fought for, they would turn in their grave...

  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

  83. testing, this working?

    I feel dirty saying it, but I want to echo Long Dong Silver's question in regards to Santas statement about Gold.

    If we have hyperinflation Gold will go to 1,650 if we have default it goes to $12,000, or somethign to that effect. Can anyone explain this? Does he mean in the very near term? I dont see how Gold only goes up $100 in hyperinflation.

    Can anyone explain this comment from Santa?

  84. Wat up dudes?! Hey why in good heavens are you posting on the blog over a long weekend?? Go spend some time outside, with the family, etc and stop thinkin about precious metals, ags, or watever investments. Sometimes it's possible to get so close to these things that we lose sight of what matters.

    As for the avatars I'm thinking we go circus theme next week. It is obviously appropriate given the state of the global economy and the markets and regulators who rig them.

    Props to kiwi#1 for the initial springboard for me to think of the circus idea.
    Props to Shill for the inspiration for me to moot Sesame St last week.

    Have a good holiday. :)

  85. Right now I'm eating thick sliced, smoked BACON!!! YEA!!!

  86. test avatar- this is the real Murphy

  87. From James Turk's Market Commentary:

    Trading Comments, 29 May 2011 (posted 14h45 CET):

    The low point of this correction is probably behind us. But I am not yet convinced that the correction has ended. In other words, even though support under $1,500 on gold and $35 on silver has held, there may be some more testing of support before the precious metals head higher. The objective should be to buy on strength, when it finally arrives.

    More at:

  88. Dave T said:

    "I think the next “Pearl Harbor” will be the government at some point suddenly ending QE to allow the markets to crash. They then use the crash as an excuse to raid 401Ks and IRAs with the pretense of protecting the wealth of the people. I wouldn’t assume outright confiscation, but government controls and requirements that funds be invested in less volatile U.S. treasuries as opposed to stocks.

    Imagine the amount of deficit spending that could be floated under this scenario. This scenario was kicked around after the market crash of ’08 and I cannot imagine it not unfolding in some fashion as a last ditch maneuver. I’ll gladly pay the 10% penalty to get my money out if this does come about. "

    I agree that such a grab is likely. I disagree that we will be provided an opportunity to "opt out".

    The justification for gold confiscation in 1933 was the Trading With the Enemy Act (1917). Does anyone reading this believe that Americans owning government issued gold coins were "trading with the enemy"? Look for a similar act to be passed, or one still on the books dredged up to justify seizing retirement accounts.

    Homeland Security may be involved. Who knows. They may get really desperate. And they will have the FULL support of anyone sucking on the FedGov's teat.

  89. @fast mover

    When I first read about the London Fix I thought of selling each day before the London take down and buying back after the take down, but I just assumed that it was too easy, and that any daily profits would get offset by the spread between the bid and ask (the transactional cost of getting in and out of the position would be greater than the average daily reduction in price)...

    Can you explain what product you are trading (futures/futures options/etc.) and what times you are buying and selling?

  90. Hey JoeKa

    Nothing wrong with catching up on my reading and posting a couple things on a lazy Sunday morning!

    We had some family stuff yesterday, found out about a new baby coming in the clan, will be grillin' brats today, kid marches in the parade tomorrow, chicken barbeque at the Legion Hall. The usual stuff. :D

    Rick, right on with the Bacon!! Thick sliced is the only way to go.

    Yeah, you can't obsess about the price of silver 24/7.
    (but I'm still alive on a couple of eBay bids for this afternoon!)

  91. Silver right now is 31.5% below its all time high... Gold is right near its all time high. So, based on those factors alone you'd want to own more silver.

    So based on the above you want to be in gold not silver in my opinion. Why would you want silver under tho above condition? Makes no trading sense to me.

    Silver has still not taken out the 1980 Bunker Hunt high. Gold has long since almost doubled above its 1980 high.

  92. Re Peru and silver miners

    I'm in Lima right now. The polls from 1 week ago show Keiko (daughter of ex strongman fujimori) leading Humala by 1% or less. Humala is a Chavez clone and buddy, which might be the only reason he loses the election, which is June 5th, next sunday.

    If Humala wins, he won't nationalize the mines right away, he's pretending to be a Lula to get elected, but give him 2 years and he'll start nationalizing everything, one piece at a time.

    EPU is swinging violently with each new poll result, and I can always tell when a new poll will be out showing a gain by one or the other, as EPU moves well ahead of it.

    Obviously 'smart' money is either doing their own polls or more likely paying for early results.

    I think Keiko will win as the lesser of 2 evils, but just a guess. There are lots of poor people in this country that are going to vote for Humala.

    If humala wins there will be an immediate drop in mining stocks, but I bet there will be a rebound once he announces he won't touch them.

    That will be the time to get the hell out of dodge.

  93. SGT interviews James Turk. Here's part I:

    Part 1:

    Part 2:

  94. The justification for gold confiscation in 1933 was the Trading With the Enemy Act (1917). Does anyone reading this believe that Americans owning government issued gold coins were "trading with the enemy"? Look for a similar act to be passed, or one still on the books dredged up to justify seizing retirement accounts.

    You missed an earlier law or declaration. WE THE PEOPLE were declared the Enemy. There were 3 big finagles in 1913 and the Civil War has not technically ended. We still are the enemy. The Constitution was long ago ended. The Government does not operate under a Constitution. The Government operates as a Corporation. I think the corporation was a 1913 finagle.

    The United States of America is a Constitution.

    The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is a Corporation. All capital letters is a corporation.

    The Yellow fringe around the american flag is a signal that we are not under the Constitution.

    Just like the government is at war with all the people called the WAR AGAINST DRUGS. That is an illegal war against WE THE PEOPLE. In every drug case before a jury the people should vote freedom. no conviction. end of the laws of the war on drugs. But the judge lies to the jury and says they can not do that. total lies.

    This country is totally corrupted beyond belief. We need a French Revolution and starting all over.

  95. @sockeye1

    I like gold better, but for different reasons. One being that the futures leverage is greater. Two, for physical holding, gold is way smaller and I like the fact that I can put a few 100k in a backpack and be on the move.

    The reason why I state that Silver is a better purchase due to it being 30%+ below its all time high is because we're in a bull market in commodities. In all bull markets, prices will reach new all time highs. It is my personal belief that Silver will break 100 and even 150 in coming years. I know gold will soar past 2k-2500 and probably even 3k.

    All in all, gold is the safer investment, silver is the more depressed, and possibly the more profitable play.

    Based on the past 6 months, at current levels Gold is a 2x short on the USD. Silver a 5x short on USD.. (at its peak it was a 7.5x short) ... will be watching these numbers in coming months for more confirmation.

  96. Any predictions what the G/S ratio will be 5 years from now? 10 years?

  97. @ Torx1953 - re: 401K grab

    Agreed that there most likely won’t be an opportunity to opt out. But I can’t imagine something of this magnitude sneaking through without the public catching wind that it’s being debated. Might require a gutsy call - withdrawing the 401K – before the jail door closes. A 401K grab by the government would certainly cause a further crash of the markets. But then they could just use that as evidence that their actions were justified and already working to protect the people, and unfortunately many of the sheeple would believe them.

    Perhaps the scenario would be that existing balances are left alone but future (perhaps mandatory) contributions are invested in U.S. treasuries. Imagine how far out into the future they could carry this Ponzi scheme if 4-5% of everyone’s pay is withheld and invested in treasuries. All speculation, but could these commodities raids just be a test for bigger things to come?

    @ JoeKa

    Busting my butt out I the yard today…. Taking a break every now and then. But you’re right, sometimes we get too caught up in all this. This stuff can give people ulcers.

  98. I've heard 16/1 so many times, and to be honest, it really would make sense.

    It's all a guessing game unless ur on the inside and know for sure, but I see $3000 gold and $200 silver on the horizon.

    Btw , get your money out of your IRA's and 401k's immediately, the government is about to rob all of you. Buy physical.

  99. AgApe,
    Love the new Blythe hat!

  100. Tribute to Sean Connery on Jepordy

  101. Just want to wish a happy Memorial Day holiday to all. I will be holding in my heart lost friends and those others that have given their lives in the service of this country.

    Best to all on this day of remembrance.

  102. @mrgttt63

    Some would say that it is wrong to profit from trading the LBMA fixes. I see it as a known market inefficiency that if enough people were to trade, would cause it to be different/change/no longer exist. These same people would say that selling short is unAmerican. Trading is trading and capitalism is the name of the game. If my neighbor is not smart enough to buy and stack physical gold and silver, that's his misfortune. Free markets, not entitlements.

    Although Top Gun was not the reason why I became an American Fighter PIlot, it was motivational!

    I trade GC (gold futures) on the NYMEX. The traditional rule is to sell short at the London AM fix (1030 GMT), then cover at the PM fix (1500 GMT) and go long at the PM fix and close at the next day's AM fix. I call it the "Golden lightswitch" because you go long/short/long/short/etc. flipping your position like a lighswitch.

    This technique is well known and has been documented on such sites as zerohedge. Why doesn't everyone trade this system? Let me share my thoughts:

    1. Don't know how to trade futures. Don't understand margin required, rollover rules.
    2. Hit unacceptable drawdowns and quit b/c of fear of losses. I mentioned before that the losses trading this type of system can be as high as a total wipe out. Risk and money management are key to survival.
    3. Greed causes traders to take early profits or hold on too long and give back winners.
    4. Well, pretty much any self-sabotage for any trader applies.
    5. 0530 EST trade time

    I will say that I have completed extensive research beyond anything that I have found on the web. Not to discourage you, but you will never get the LBMA prices that are published either on Kitco or the LBMA site. Studying this phenoma has told me that the LBMA does not necessarily set the AM or PM fixes exactly at those times. In fact, I have seen them publish up to 45 minutes past the fix time. It takes hard work to extract profit around such as system, but it can be done.

    Here's a test for anyone wanting to trade this type of system:

    Put a short position on at 0530 EST Friday, May 27th with gold at 1526, then hold it to the PM fix at 1000 EST Friday at 1534. That's an $800 lost per contract. In order to trade this system you have to be able to sit on your hands and take losses like this every day.

    So for all you naysers and critics of LBMA fix trading, it ain't all that easy.

  103. If you wait for the gov to allow the stock market to crash to 1000 on the Dow there will be no money left in the IRA 401K anyway. That is the way they will rob the public. Then at the bottom they force everyone to go into TBills or TBonds. Sounds like the obvious call by your government acting to help protect you from yourself.

    Best to get it out now and into physical gold & silver.


    Which is better silver or gold. I dont know. Probably will get a bigger profit out of silver. But the pull backs are bigger. Gold is probably smoother.

    silver 50 to 200 = 4X
    gold 1500 to 3000 = 2X

    I definitely like silver for physical. Much less chance to have silver confiscated. And easier to sell silver coins for cash without government audit.

    Does anyone know how to put on a gold/silver ratio spread. What I mean is are there any ETF's or other means to put on the spread. It seems hard to do the spread yourself with equal dollar amounts. Playing the ratio long term might be a lower risk way to play the game.

  104. To the Fifty Swift Boat Sailors 'still on patrol'. Squadron 1

    Squadron 1
    Coastal Divisions 11 and 13
    Oct '67 - Oct '68

    I wish all of you Turdites a wonderful weekend with friends and loved ones.

    Looking forward to a great week for silver and gold.

    Thank you Turd, best of everything to you and yours.

  105. Fast Mover

    So how do you find out the london fixes. where is it published at the time. there must be a data feed.

    I congratulate you on your ability to execute.

    How much money do you allocate for each contract of gold? approximately what is margin on gold today.

  106. @fast mover

    If you are talking about paper gold (Sprott/CEF/GTU/SVRZF then you just pick the ratio you want and invest in the fund that has the lowest premium (or lately the highest discount) to NAV.

    I'm out of EVERYTHING - just holding cash except my CEF which is a G/S ratio of 1:1

    I was in a much higher G/S ratio but before I went parity was very much heavy on the gold.

    CEF's only problem that I can divine is that you don't get to choose your own GSR.

    You can also mix the ratio around with great ease if you are buying the Closed End Funds.

    IF you are talking about physical in your posession, changing the ratio is much less handy so pick the ratio you want and buy it.

    In either paper investment or physical holdings you will need to adjust the amounts as things change but it's lots easier to do it with paper gold.

    I'm WAY heavy suddenly on physical silver so I started to go way heavy on my paper gold.



  107. @eric#1

    The Mother Earth News DVD came today. I'll say that I prefer to relcine and read the real issues but you never can find anything that way - 41 years of magazines even with indexs aren't very easy to locate specific topics. I played around with the search which is kind of slowish - again 41 years of issues - but also my computer isn't the most modern. I got all sorts of bacon and pig articles (Was going to send you some via megaupload but something from Trinity Blue got in the archive by accident so I'm not inflicting her on you.) Three dowsing articles. I didn't check for astrology or other stuff. Will do that on an as needed basis. I'd say that for the price, you can't find more or better self-reliance information.

    This magazine came out and were about geodesic dome, straw bale building, etc. and don't have anything to do with the "mad max" scenerio that some here are anticipating. I am sure we won't reach anything like "mad max" but it's nice to know how to do lots of thins for yourself.

    A N
    J G
    A O
    A and the wedge of bees

  108. Sushi/Long,
    My read of Santa's statement and knowledge of Santa's and Armstrong's writings is if TPTB choose hyperinflation, gold will very, very soon vault up to at least $1650, and thereafter continue to follow the angels, if TPTB choose no QE/deflation it will proceed to Armstrong's $12,500 by 2015. Hope others chime in.

  109. I'm expection a mostly red week for the PMs next week.

    Perhaps that's because I WANT one but whatever.

    It will be what it will be.


  110. @ Fast Mover

    Maverick. I am very happy you are making a fortune using that system. I am surprised that in your exhaustive study beforehand you didn't learn that the times of 10:30 and 2 pm (GMT) London time are the times they begin the discussion as to what the fixed price will be. It never is determined and published at precisely those times. And the reason so few use your system is it is not very good. Not because it is unAmerican to short gold. Again, thrilled is working for you but the risks in that system are unacceptable to every successful trader I know. You would do better to just buy and hold.
    Passing on the I am an American fighter pilot part. Good luck Iceman.

  111. Bingo

    Thx for the update on the Mother Earth News thing.

    Well, the coals are just about hot on the Weber grill, and the rain just stopped and the sun came out for the first time all day. Gotta go.

  112. And the EUR/USD rate is HIGHER in pre trading in spite of Greece concerns

    Who knows what that means for PM's in these crazy markets

  113. e736e346-

    Where do you go or what do you use to see the pre trading?

  114. Hi rckt,

    netdania show the pre trading once it starts

    I believe Oanda do too but I have never used it


  116. hey guys, I need an advice. I'm from Italy. I've lastly been able to sell my house (let me say that it's been really tough to find a buyer) and with all my savings I will reach 500 k on my bank account next month. How much gold and silver would you buy and in which proportion? Thank you very much for any useful advice you could give me. I'm quite scared for what we're going to face in the upcoming months so I think I'd better be quick.
    Oh, and you are great Turd!

  117. kliguy38 - Your not supposed to put your family photos on here man, come on!

  118. @ eric#1

    Here's the URL for a pig and a TV article I snagged for you.


  119. Oops


  120. Found a couple of great and pretty funny videos regarding economists and politics.


  121. James Turk and Bill Murphy of GATA in multiple video’s recently posted on Treasure trove of info dated 27 May, 2011 in Munich.
    By the way, when they mention “the few smart people” – that’s you.

  122. mrttt63 said...
    "FastMover. I can just marvel at the ignorance sometimes. Its like saying - I can see my neighbour committing a crime but will not do anything about it because I profit from it!!"

    Uh, it's not truly ignorance. This is the natural progression resulting from a corrupt government. People follow the leaders. Old as time.

    This change in values will only grow until we have honest leaders, or at least leaders that align with what's right for most folks.

    Sir somebody said "absolute power corrupts absolutely." I say, absolute corruption corrupts almost everyone.

    - Jim M.

  123. Howdy, Y'all!

    I'd like to add my perspective on the potential for a major artificial correction in the next 24-36 hours.

    1. I do not know if it will happen. None of us do.

    2. I spotted the same thing Turd did - a pattern that seems similar or something more sinister, particularly with the gold/silver disparity Friday. Sold all gold before I read his comment. Silver after that, but you need to keep reading to REALLY see why I sold it.

    3. I got burned a bit on the last one. Got lucky, too, but the scars linger longer than the profit rush.

    4. I fear getting burned again on the same thing. Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice....

    Now, I'd bet anyone fearing a smack-down shares my sentiments above. So, what to do?

    I am trading paper to buy PMs and RE. Trading. Not investing. It's important to KNOW which you are doing.

    A trader must minimize risks. So I flattened.

    Investing is different, particularly with phys. You simply need to KNOW you are right and that you can outlast the fear and panic.

    If you can't hold through the emotions, minimize risk. If you need a place to calm your emotions, you've found it here. If you believe in the smack-down and want to trade, you raise dry powder and lick your chops.

    If you determine who you are, what you believe, and how you respond under duress, then the decisions are easy with a little sounding board action at a blog. Like this one.

    As long as you're not heavily on margin, and as long as you don't panic and sell at the bottom, this too shall pass. Bank on it. Most of us already have. A few might be able to buy a bank by now. Or a yogurt stand. :-)

    Be patient. We're early to the party. Very early, I think. But even if not, you're definitely not late to the party.

    Trust Turd and this blog. No better resource anywhere. And trust yourself.


    - Jim M.


    So after one year of beating around the bush, it is finally made clear that, as many were expecting all along, the ultimate goal of the Greek "bailouts" is nothing short of the state's (partial for now) annexation by Europe. According to an FT breaking news article, "European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens. People involved in the talks said the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens’ repayment schedule, as well as another round of austerity measures." Thus Greece is faced with the banker win-win choice, of not only abandoning sovereignty, a first in modern "democratic" history, in the pursuit of "Greek" policies that are beneficial for Europe, or not get a bailout, which would only serve to prevent senior bondholder impairments. How could Greek leaders and its population possibly not accept such an attractive option which either leaves the country as another Olli Rehn protectorate, or forces it to not bailout Europe's overleveraged banker class. In essence Europe is now convinced, just like Hank Paulson was on September 14, 2008, that the downstream effects from letting Greece implode are manageable. But the key development is that the Greek bankruptcy, which from the beginning, and as Peter Tchir's note below demonstrates, was always simply a Greek choice, was just made that much easier.

  125. @ Jim - you said, "I'd like to add my perspective on the potential for a major artificial correction in the next 24-36 hours... I spotted the same thing Turd did - a pattern that seems similar or something more sinister, particularly with the gold/silver disparity Friday."

    Jim, where did Turd say anything like what you referred to? Can you offer a more specific reason you think a correction is imminent? Is it possible that you are just edgy because you got burned on the last manipulated takedown or are you yelling FIRE in this theatre?

    No offense or disrespect intended, but you make some pretty bold timing claims and I just don't see it. Help us out here and explain further.

  126. Excellent Post Jim. Evening Turds hope everyone had a nice weekend, Especially our Men and Women in Uniform.


  127. sockeye1 said:

    So based on the above you want to be in gold not silver in my opinion. Why would you want silver under tho above condition? Makes no trading sense to me.

    Silver has still not taken out the 1980 Bunker Hunt high. Gold has long since almost doubled above its 1980 high.


    Agree here from a purely technical analysis, short-term perspective. A defined trend of strength is the short-term play, whether it's PM's or oil or stocks.

    The chart is telling us where the big money is flowing. Until it's not. :-)

    - Jim M.

  128. "Titus Andronicus said...
    James Turk interviews Bill Murphy. Good stuff.

    May 27, 2011 2:05 PM"

    Hey hey Mr. Jackass - thanks for posting a month old interview.

  129. Little evening read:

    The denationalization of money


    word ver: candor (yeah Too Much candor i'd say)

  131. Just for clarification, *they* cannot "crash" your 401k or retirement accounts if you don't own any stocks in them. If you need to play it safe, then sell everything and sit in cash in an intrest-baring/money market account. I did this when the DOW hit 12,600 or so and will just wait this summer out.

    Just sayin'...cause not everyone can afford to take the hit on the early WD tax and penalties.

    The gvmnt "stealing" them is a whole other story all together.

  132. Simone:
    One thing 99% of us on this site don't know is what kind of tax situation you face in Italy concerning gold and silver. It seems like some European countries have VAT taxes on some PMs. What is the situation in Italy?
    I would think that besides gold and silver you should look at a bank account in Switzerland and a bank account in one of the stronger Euro countries (Germany, France). Diversification seems like a good idea for you.

  133. A drive by shooting was clearly done on silver/gold. Once I heard of the margin hikes and saw the osama nonsense, I reversed my position and shorted SLV options very aggressively at around $45.

    I'm pretty sure this "drive by" was to scare people away before our next huge up move. It was also a massive robbery. If this "drive by" raid isn't over yet, it will be over very very soon. Perhaps the dollar hasn't totally given up yet, I tend to think the dollar is a zombie with not much life left in it. A good strategy is to short every dollar rally, or to keep buying more silver & gold/foreign currencies everytime the dollar rallies.

    It's over for the USD.. any upcoming rallies will be short-lived. This $38 mark for silver is very important. If it holds, expect to be at $41-$42 pretty quickly.

    Doing the opposite of what I say would probably be the most profitable short term, haha, but long term there's nothing in the world that will stop gold and silver.

  134. Hey, JoeKa, What is that a Halloween costume you got on? I thought the theme was changed to "Circus"!

  135. @ Larry

    "Jim, where did Turd say anything like what you referred to? Can you offer a more specific reason you think a correction is imminent? Is it possible that you are just edgy because you got burned on the last manipulated takedown or are you yelling FIRE in this theatre?

    No offense or disrespect intended, but you make some pretty bold timing claims and I just don't see it. Help us out here and explain further."


    Regarding the first point, he did mention the pattern of advancing gold vs flat silver reminded him of patterns that preceded margin hikes in weeks past, I can't find it now, but to the best of my recollection it was mentioned.

    Regarding the second point, turd said:

    "Lastly, I've read in the comments that there is some concern regarding holding positions over the 3-day weekend. Recent pattern on 3-day weekends has been for a rally on the holiday, only to have The Wicked Witch immediately claw back the gains on Tuesday for a net effect of zero. No reason to expect different action this time around. Be not afraid."


    So I think he's looking for a rally into the 39-39.50 region, followed by a beat down back to the 37.75-$38 range (close on Friday). That would be a fairly "major" correction if you are a short term trader.

    To clarify further: in today's post he's still looking for $42-$45 by June End.

  136. @Larry, et. al.-

    Let me elaborate. And apologize, since my post was misleading.

    Turd's statement came in the comments Friday @ 12:46 "blog" time (EST?)... see bottom of this post.

    I agree with you, my words just now gave the *incorrect* impression TF said it was a bad sign. As it shows below, he did nothing of the sort.

    Thanks for pointing it out.

    It was *my* interpretation that the action was identical the *prior* smack-down, similar enough to warrant *my* reducing risk.

    My thought at the time was that the only reason I needed to stay long over this weekend was to be in position to make more profits if the price went up. Not a solid reason for me to take on the risk.

    Is that more clear now?

    Again, sorry for the confusion. It was not intentional in the least.

    - Jim M.


    Turd Ferguson said...

    From this distance, I have no idea what caused the steep, sharp drop we just saw in silver. Today suddenly looks eerily reminiscent of four weeks ago today when gold was sharply higher and silver wasn't participating.

    Not sayin, just sayin.

    Not a time for panic or concern but a time for caution.

    Watch the silver close and Globex trade very closely.

    May 27, 2011 12:46 PM

  137. Fuel cells use ('ta use) a lot of platinum.

  138. This comment has been removed by the author.

  139. Turd was also referring to two holiday weekends that occurred before the "Sunday Massacre", so with that in mind there is probably *potential* for a heavier correction than just back to the Friday close levels.

    I think Turd's words are the best though:

    "Be not afraid"

  140. hey johnboatcat! that was quick!
    was gonna wait for the rest of the gang to get back before changin...but why not now right? :)

    i chose Homey D Clown, because the MAN wants to keep a good brutha down. And as my favorite clown always says:

    "Homey don't play that!"

  141. My favorite clown was painted on an elephants rear with the tail for the nose. Wish I had a photo of it!

  142. @Larry,

    Sorry, forgot to address your questions. I have no idea what might happen, so no way I'm shouting fire.

    Prior losses did play a role. I was at Disneyworld with my kids during the beat-down week, completely unaware until Wednesday.

    The Friday before, I noticed that SLV was not moving with the same trend it had been for weeks ("not acting right"). Didn't want to worry during vacation, so I flattened out for the vacation. Almost flat.

    I left $30K in SLV $50 July calls in case it ran up. House money from the run-up. Let 'er ride!

    Bad bet; house won.

    The calls are worth about $1.5K now. Yes, painful, but I am still up nicely. "Teachable moment."

    BTW, they're still in my account. All that bloody red is a great reminder when I got green everywhere else.

    Last week, I had a tidy profit... mostly on gold, not silver (I was late to buy). Thought to myself, this feels familiar.

    While considering the holiday beat-down possibility, I kept concluding I wanted a long position in case it went up.

    Then I recognized the chart was similar to "before Disney." That triggered my awareness that I was thinking of leaving money in for the same (stupid) reason I did before Disney (house money, let 'er ride!).

    Not wanting to repeat my stupid mistake, I sold all the GLD calls and waited for a possible bump to sell all the SLV calls.

    Then I read TF's post. He didn't say "sell" or "look out!" But he did say "caution."

    I realized my reason to stay long was stupid, and that I'd been burned by that before.

    Sold ALL of it this time and started my weekend early in a great, risk-free mood.

    I didn't (and don't) know what could/will happen with the raids. I am as plugged in as a fireplace.

    I've mentioned here before that traders need to wait for the "fat pitches." Hoping for the price to go up with the risk of a price push down in an abnormally thin market is not a fat pitch.

    That's what I was thinking. Sorry the post is so long.

    - Jim M.

  143. This comment has been removed by the author.

  144. Thanks for sharing your experience Jim. Lots to learn there.

    Yeah it sucks to leave your trades seeing it all Disney and Fantasy Island only to come back to see profits on Stranger Tides and the account at World's End.

    Damn these dastardly cartel pirates.

  145. thanks for clarifying Jim. Just checking...

  146. JoeKa, that was funny!

    It did make the money flow during the trip (I'm normally notoriously cheap). Best trip ever when money is no object.

    In making the decision to stay long ("PD" - Pre-Disney), I did think for several hours about how I'd feel if I lost it all. Concluded the gamble was worth it.

    And make no mistake - it was pure craps table gambling. And just as fun until the roll ended.

    Good news is, as Concerned pointed out, we have nothing to be afraid of.

    - Jim M.

  147. Will anyone dare do any buying this eerie monday? At what levels are you looking to get it in?

  148. This comment has been removed by the author.

  149. Whoa atlee...that's fierce bro!
    I know what Hux is gonna say seeing that:

    "Please don't EAT me Mr Lion..." which point you're gonna run into a corner and hide! ROFLMAO

  150. @Jimmy: personally I'm gonna be chillin on the Silver trades til end June. If there is a REALLY NICE entry point, i'd buy big and go long til Oct or Dec.

  151. @ atlee

    I am not a frequent poster but have been here since last December. I agree that trading this system is difficult, I am trading a variant that took time to develop that has been reliable and profitable since the beginning of 2008. My sincerest thanks for your I know you have much to offer here,

  152. Hoping for a massive beatdown tonight or tomorrow, during the US holiday so I can BTFD. Short covered as well so win-win if that happens. I believe like Turd that we'll see Silver in the mid 40s sometime in June... the yearly seasonal weakness for PMs will not occur this time around. There's just too much political garbage going on in the world that will result in the continuing support and demand for Gold and Silver.

  153. A lot of people are very cautious, and to be fair I am playing that same card with suggestions to others... However, I focus more on mining stocks, and I am in an IRA so I am trying to make limited trades and play the swings instead of the intra-days. (Yet I follow forex like I am a day-trader, obsessive at times). However if I could type just for fun here it goes.

    I think everyone here is way to bearish on the short to mid term on their estimations. Maybe I am in just in extreme bullish camp, but I feel there are going to be world moves in these markets (gold and then silver will get some major attention too) in the very near future. Think about all the trouble we are in in the Western World... and the only solution we have to really fix anything is to print more money or let everything collapse. I am expecting even more out of the ordinary things (such as we see hinted at in the post above where the entire EU could be taxed to help bail out Greece....

    This is the type of stuff we are going to start seeing... from my above post

    "European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens

    Look at what is going on... China is making its move now, and we can see it in their actions.

    Wherever in the curve China is focusing, the fact that it continues to actively buy JGBs after 5 consecutive months of declines in its UST purchases (coupled with the news broken by Zero Hedge that Fed custodial accounts of foreign UST holdings suffered the largest one week drop in almost 4 years) is sending a very clear political message to the US.


    We are being very naive to think that old cycles are at work here. We are dealing with a very dangerous cycle for the health of the system, the ending of a currency through massive inflation... one where the comforts that those who are priviliged enough can still take advantage of these days will not exist in the future. The future society we are going to be forced to live in is going to be a lot of suffering and fear around us.

    Personally I think we are on the cusp of something that sends PM's off to the races... and once silver breaks $50, watch out... I think the buying will go into a frenzy.

    We will see.

  154. Not trying to be a downer, there will be good that emerges from the suffering. Just meant to say that bad financial times (why gold and silver are going up) will not be good for those who don't understand what is going on and already in trouble.

    We must focus on the solutions. Can't wait for Turd's new site.

  155. YAY.. I'm back.

    Blogger had me locked out for days ..Well, I could read and so that was good. :]

    THANK YOU to Kliguy38 who had this posted on his blog:

    "..Google blogger doesn't like us I guess. So when you try to comment go into your google account (it may come up when you commment) When you sign in MAKE SURE YOU UNCHECK the "keep me signed in box" .. There is a glitch that will not allow you to comment if the box is left checked."

    That was the problem and quick as I changed that checkbox thing.. I was able to post again. Thanks Kliguy ..and it may help others here as well.

    Happy Memorial Day all! ...Our thoughts & prayers are with families whose loved one has paid the ultimate price. We are in your debt and remember you this weekend.

    ps.....Sorry JoeKa about the gingery indian food ...but I take no personal responsibility for that. :D

  156. "kliguy38 said...
    Just a brief thankyou and a sobering word of caution to everyone. When reality does indeed begin to take over the Ponzi we will enter the Kondratiev winter and I hope all of you realize that this will be unlike any period in your lives or any period you can probably imagine. Pray and hope that somehow our world manages to get through this period without completely imploding. This will be end o days stuff if we slide into chaos. So in a sad way I am rooting for the strategy of extend and pretend now....knowing it will fail but hoping the outcome is not catastrophic as it might be..."

    Assuming there are no major wars, it will probably take 50-150 years to exceed our current average standard of living. This, right now, is as good as it will ever get in our lifetimes, at least for the average person. Us metals investors will probably be very well off as technology will still advance, but it will only be available to few, as resources become ever scarcer.

    I mean, we could be in luck, and maybe population will regulate itself so we won't need to consume resources ever more rapidly, and maybe the world as a whole will kind of grow up and realize the situation and work constructively on alternate energy means, recycling resources etc.. but realistically speaking, the world will need an extreme trauma to wake up to the new reality - that we can't go on like this forever.

    We here on this blog are prepared. We will survive, and there's a good chance that during all the chaos and suffering, we will actually prosper.

  157. Btw, lol, "Moo!"

    You're always good for a laugh to cheer us up, Turdiebird.

  158. ff32..

    I think (?) TF meant the MOO etf Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (ticker symbol MOO) which invests its assets primarily in companies engaged in agriculture. I could be wrong!...but I had looked at this ETF sometime back. I do not own any of it...but would like to!! :]

  159. 2 personal favorite silly sounding market ticker symbols are the MOO one ...and DIG for oil. ..Those can't be unintended. :]

  160. Jim M. here. Changed to LiveJournal... couldn't figure out how to change my profile otherwise.

    Decided to join the circus...

    - Jim M.

  161. Went to salute the troops today at the Jones Beach Air Show in NY. Its a part of fleet week celebrations here. Absolutely phenomenal stuff!!!

    Those f-18 super hornets always know how to close a great show!

    Was having a discussion with some of my buddies while there, here's the gist of it:

    How many wars have been fought for economic reasons or for our "strategic interests?" Yet these corporations who gain access to these new markets, refuse to bring their trillions of dollars back home or to pay taxes. Got to discussing if this would be a reason to break the euro and shake the Middle East up? Seems we all can agree that this would be overall dollar positive. No other currency could absorb that kind of net flow, only the USD. We just couldn't agree on how positive this would be for PMs. On the surface it seems PMs would catch a bid. But at some point (per kitco's PM index) it would be very very PM negative.

    Here's the rationale:

    As the euro approaches $0 the price of gold would approach infinity in euros. But, if the euro is worth $0 who really cares what the price of gold is in euros? The euro would still be worth $0.

    Inversely, however, the price of gold in dollars would be nearing $0 (per kitco's PM index).

    Meaning, the dollar would once again become the absolute currency of the world. And gold would get a serious kick in the teeth.


  162. I posted a link earlier to a blog where the author was calling for a 30% drop next week. I should have been clear that I wasn't endorsing that call. For my part of the bearish snowball, I only said it was a bold call. Since that same blog had been linked to a few times previously I thought with such a bold call it was worthy of note and will quickly play out one way or another.

    That being said, I hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Isn't that what we're doing in silver? Paper traders make good money playing the game but us all metal guys want low prices because we don't leverage our FRNs prior to purchase. We are just happy to preserve what we've earned. And let me tell you, me and my guys work damn hard for the money. I'm a cash buyer and I would love to TRY and get real metal at $27 again but I'm not betting on it. I bought more at $36 and will buy more in a week whatever the price. I only buy local and you can't always get what you want. No you can't always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, you might find, you'll get what you need. Ah yeah.

    Dollar cost averaging as I go. I started at 15 and continued at 18,21,24,27,33,37,48,35 and on it goes. 45 or 27 next? I don't know. I just buy. I know I get more when it's less so that would be good. I don't plan on spending any of my stored wealth in the next few years so what do I care. I know what's going to happen. I do know I can't just walk into my local and buy whatever I want at the bottom. You buy some all the time, get to know your local coin guys and get a heads up on fresh stock.

    I find the more I talk to friends the more anxious I am to be proven right. The less I talk shop, the more content I am to have prices fall so I can stack. Secretly stacking with only the clinktink of silver silently slicing the shackles of slavery. Suckers.

    Ok, it's late, I'm high and stream of consciousness keyboards are dangerous.

    Focker out.

    word ver: asessamo (good idea)

  163. Soo, anyone trading today? :)

  164. Still waiting for the dip Mikael :)

    Target buy level 36.5 today

  165. Ginger

    Welcome Back!! I was beginning to wonder what happened to you.

    Yes, I think unchecking that box for "Stay signed in" DOES seem crucial. I unchecked mine a while back just because I thought it made sense security-wise and I haven't had a problem with Blogger since.

    (knock on wood)

    BTW, yes DIG is 2X oil & gas stocks, while it's sister fund is DUG for 2X short the same. DIG & DUG. cute. easy to remember.

  166. Dunno, I'm usually very positive about PMs and trading as a whole, but this starts to piss me off.

    1. Manipulation at its finest, even now when they've already used up huge firepower (nearly 1500 tonnes of SLV silver gone) they won't let it go.

    2. You just can't hedge this thing. Like now for example, silver goes down, the USD goes down.. or silver goes up, the USD goes up - although both SHOULD move in opposite directions. Same with the stock market, no even half reliable correlation with silver can be found. Sometimes silver will even move inversly to gold!

    Well, I lightened up here a little. Still have a position with some leverage that I built up around 35$.. but trying not to be overleveraged.

  167. Seems to me that if there is a yin and yang of financial preparedness, it would be stacking physical on the one hand and debt reduction on the other. It's hard to do both at the same time.

    I've been heavy into stacking phyzz for about the last year and a half, the bulk of it over the course of 2010, but just today I felt a wave come over me that it was time to go the other way for a while. Looked at my stack and suddenly felt like "it's enough". A rather nice feeling, I must say.

    Word Verif: pologies

    haha, don't know where to start on that one. My 'pologies for (fill in the blank)

  168. Hey Ginger! Something's really wrong with Blogger these days. There are a number of people who are having issues with posting, not being able to see the comment box and a litany of other issues.

    For some reason I can no longer post from my iPad even after signing in/out with the 'Remember Me' unchecked. But Google Chrome works fine...until it doesn't! LOL

    As for the gingery food...I went back for seconds yesterday! YUMMY! :)

    Having to bring your own MOO and DIG your own oil is just TYPICAL of the MAN. And since I have absolutely no idea what I just said, I'll leave it as:

    "Homey don't play that!"

  169. I dunno why everyone is suddenly assuming there's gonna be a major dip today or tomorrow. It's strange.

    Just for that I may actually buy-in now and scratch my contrarian BULL itch.

  170. When people are greedy, take your profits.

    When people are fearful, make money!

  171. The reason I'm not bearish on PMs at the moment, is simple:

    I would love to see Greece leave the euro, to create another currency, to repay debts made in euros, which they couldn't pay while they had euros.

    Just think about that! And when you're done, think about what the exchange rate would be for that new currency, 2 hours after its creation.

    I do not purport to know how the eurozone will deal with Greece. I assume they will privatize the infrastructure of the country, because way too much of it is government run, but them leaving the euro is laughable at best.

    I don't mind the dollar "RESET" and the new Au record highs in euros. But do bear in mind, that when the dollar falls again, there will new Au record highs in dollars too. So, at the moment, I'm a buyer.


  172. JoeKa

    I am not saying there will be a dip. I am just saying that if there is one I will buy. At 38 the price is nothing special and it could go either way.

  173. Morning / Afternoon / Evening!

    Hope everyones having a good weekend.

    I can confirm I have not been able to comment using my iPhone or iPad, the comment window doesn't appear.

    Roll on the new site.

    Glad to see we're holding up the price.. I dozed off last night and had planned to close 1 long position at 38.50 if it got there.. I slept through 38.39, not sure yet if I'm glad or not.

    I don't mind we're not shooting through highs here, as long as its slow and steady, I'm good.

    I am a bit concerned that the last few days the price has only really held at over 38 during the Asian trading hours.

    Lets hope google sort out this blogger issue.. and that Silver stays up!

  174. Does anyone here study Elliot Wave cycles in TA?

    I am looking at the H4 Silver chart again and seeing that Silver has been failing to crack the 38.2 FIBO which lies at the 38.80s.

    Now if it fails to crack this early in the trading week I wonder if its being setup for C-wave correction?

  175. To add to that, if C-wave correction does pan out, the haircut will take us to 33s again if buyers stay out. That's Turd's Bottom #2 all over again.

    I'm not saying this will happen, but it sure looks like a possible setup on the BEAR side.

    So if you are indeed an Elliot proponent, chime in with your thoughts.

  176. “The bull walks up the stairs and the bear jumps out the window”

  177. I have one last, long night before I can sell the ZSL I bought going into the weekend (if I want to.)

    In my other account I'm all cash except core CEF and can't make any move in there until Thursday when the funds of sales settle so obviously a haircut down to the 33s again is what would work for me.

    I'm anxious to learn Timer's silver price prediction since I have no way to do that like he does; I just have points in cycles that are beneficial for me personally - which work mostly - but the logic of that escapes me.

    Good morning to all and have a happy Memorial Day. I am conflicted about Memorial Day in the USA since we are taught in grade school here that we were officially invaded five times by the USA, eight more by groups of USA Citizens (in campaings called "filibusters,) and lose half our land to you in the 1830s and 1840s,

    I doubt if that is taught in USA grade school history books but next time you run into an urchin on the street who is so polite and friendly to Mr. Gringo, know that he has the USA invasions clearly in mind.


  178. Hey guys,

    I'm from Belgium and I can confirm it's the Belgium bank called Dexia.
    Apparently it sold it's us-debt-stake within a few hours when the stock started to tumble due to the rating issue.
    The funny thing was that the bank even didn't informed the government in advance while they have foreseen a major bailout a few years back.
    The Flemisch prime minister was pissed off due to this non-informed-situation.

    The even more strange thing is that the average person overhere continues to talk about Greece while one of our own banks made a pretty critical ad-hoc move.


  179. Is it just me, or am I somehow missing the supposed decay in AGQ in this chart:,$SILVER


  180. Pretty much nothing at all happens today, im currently bear silver but i wonder if i should sell before the market opens ( US right?) or not

  181. These are a howl if you haven't seen them yet.

    Hayek v. Keynes battle of the rappers.

  182. @ JoeKa

    hey buddy. Just checking out my avatar see if it is working

  183. Not much of a takedown last night... CAD markets to open soon.

    JoeKa you seem to be calling for bearish Silver all the time...

  184. Silver is a bit week today, in 7h it needs to be at 38.250 or I will be a bit neutral

  185. Those who are still using Oanda, do you feel comfortable with this new FIFO regulation bullshit ?

  186. youks said:
    JoeKa you seem to be calling for bearish Silver all the time...


    Er sure about that statement?

    I don't think so.
    Coz Homey don't play that.

  187. This comment has been removed by the author.

  188. @atlee: hey buddy. It's lookin regally good.
    Are you on the greens today?

  189. Hope the Turd and everyone is enjoying the long weekend. I am currently long with silver. Someone (my apologies I don’t remember who) brought the below links to our attention here. Just a bit concerned reading from this Cyclical Market Analysis blog that's predicting a major downturn this week in all markets. Any thoughts from you or anyone here? Thanks much!!!
    Anticipating Lower Lows:
    Beware the Silver Snake:

  190. I believe I have a tenacious grasp of the obvious. Ready?

    Silver isn't going anywhere without gold. Gold seems to be resting up for tomorrow's action.

    wrd ver dismktft

  191. @ joeka
    no resting up for tomorrow. So my avatar ate the ringmaster.

  192. news headlines on bloomberg and CNBC these days generally say 'silver and gold stronger on euro problems'.

    So looks like we have left the dollar/PMs inverse relation behind, at least for now.

    Nothing going on in the Toronto market, zzzzz.