Friday, May 13, 2011

Back Up

It looks like Blogger is finally working again.

I bought some June 1500 calls about an hour ago.

I'll have a full update in a few hours. TF


  1. Wow, I'm the first to post do I win a hat?

    USDX at .76 is the top in????

    Thx Turd we missed u.

  2. Turd, has BlogSpot lost all of the comments that were made yesterday, Thursday, 12 May? I hope not, but it seems that way.

    As you probably know, this outage affected the blogs of SilverGS and Harvey Organ, too.

    -- Paul D. Bain

  3. Turd,could have used your two cents today. Fucking hammered. Sold all my silver miners in a 2008 flashback, self-preservation, head for the bunker, smash up the room moment.

    Yeah, it was that bad. I am out of silver until a bottom is reached and an upswing kicks in. This is fucking nuts. It is 2008 all over again. And that almost killed me.


  4. WOW I get to be first to comment.

    Thanks for all your work on this !
    And try to pay no attention to the trolls.

    I would gladly pay a fee to post, if that would keep away the trolls...think what the comments section of ZeroHedge has come to with no supervision. It's really not worth reading anymore.

  5. thank god it's back up. I've been getting withdrawals all day!

  6. glad this is back .... came at a bad time as we look for a bottom ... i went in gold anyway when it dipped below 1490

  7. well, normally I just go underwater, especially I got hit so hard during the past two weeks (or rather, two years to me)during the storms. But I've decided I need to speak up because Turd's site is such a good place and I know I can't "live without it" :-)

  8. I have to say it really looks like the dollar strength will continue for a while with the end of QE around the corner. Looks like the masses still believe the dollar is the safe place to run unfortunately.

  9. Thanks for the advice on silver hitting $36 today, I made a quick 10% in less than 8 hours because of that advice. Thanks once again Turd, I look forward to your post.


  10. Sumo,

    I was not expecting that takedown at 11:00 today. Totally new time for a scalp. It's always closer to noon when the selling kicks in. I went big last night in lots of miners. This morning, I was up nice and it just fell apart. Watching the GDX hit 53.37-- well, this is a simply a collapse of 2008 proportions.

  11. ditto, these past two weeks I should have gone short instead of trying to catch bottoms going long. I knew it was going to be crazy so I have only been trying with small positions, thank goodness. same here...just waiting for a bottom. there is money to be made with these swings but also lots to be lost!

  12. "Turd, has BlogSpot lost all of the comments that were made yesterday, Thursday, 12 May? I hope not, but it seems that way."

    Something there must have really bothered the EE a LOT, for them to have taken down Blogger like that. :>)

    Seriously, good to have you back TF.

    Oh, suggestions for the new blog/website (which I tried, unsuccessfully, to post yesterday):

    1) Have the capability for you to ban commenters, kind of like Karl Denninger has at The Market Ticker. Between that and the $20 fee you propose to keep out trolls (with which I agree, btw, as your information and commentary is certainly worth it), the idiots ought to be really limited, making it a fantastic site.

    2) I'd also like to see people have the ability to edit their own comments (at least for an hour or a day), again like Denninger's site. We all make stupid typos, or leave something out, or even say things that we later regret and wish to remove, and I think that it would contribute to the quality of the site to allow corrections of this type.

    That's my $0.02. Thanks for everything.

  13. Turdites sorry for off-topic!

    Go get yourself and watch "Why gold and silver" from M. Maloney.

    You already know it all but it's wonderful feeling when you hear somebody else justify and strenghten your stand/opinion that average Joe fights with.

    I think he did in in 2009 or so, he refers to Silver spot @ 15 at the time of the movie making. Just impressive.

    Cheers anyone & long live the Turd

  14. Missed the community here! ...Looking forward to the new site where I KNOW outages will never happen. :-]

    If you are on here.. I went back and re-read some threads/posts and saw that you said your nephew is having success with his options.. Please do let us know how he is doing and what he is teaching you! Congratulations to him btw.. ..I learn SO MUCH from you ..and I absolutely devour all of your options-speak! :]]

  15. POSX will go up as long as we have no qe?

  16. I agree with others here, it is looking to shape up just like 08', maybe just short the dow?

  17. If you want to know the identity of TPTB (AKA the EE) read this.

    Long but worth it. This is what we are up against. American business and business regulators are totally OUT OF CONTROL

  18. btw, I BTFD @ 34. Would I be crazy to hold it over the weekend?

  19. flyin blind turd today bought zsl early sold now goin for pzg

  20. Dollar lose some of its strength with gold/silver rallying post comex with oil catching a bid leaving hammers in mining indexes. I hope this is the case :P

  21. Glad you are back up Turd. People say you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone. Truth is, you knew what you had, you just never thought you’d lose it.

  22. Truly a strange trading if that were even possible. CPI numbers came in hot and for awhile I really thought we could have a nice rally on our hands.

    Then it all fell down like a pack of cards. You knew something was wrong after every rally up kept being sold off.

  23. Was EE trying to rig Blogger to shut this blog down? Just thinking.

  24. Sorry to hear that SSK. I dumped everything this morning and stating long matter what the market does from here on in.

    Bought some more physical gold this morning as well, something is in the air for sure.

  25. THIRD PALESTINIAN INTIFADA: All Arabs to March on Israel on May 15th could be the reason why youtube, yahoo, blogspot, and many other sites are down.

  26. Anyone have any thoughts about what Monday will bring for us with the debt ceiling officially being breached?

  27. Turd,

    Do you think the down time was a normal glitch or something sinister?

    I can picture Blythe outside your residence middle of the night parked in her Bentley wearing sunglasses with her cigarette glowing. I know Vamoose would like that!

  28. This morning I was thinking of what Rothschild did in England when news arrived back from the Battle of Waterloo. England won, but he panic sold and then bought it all back a lot lower.

  29. And yes Turdie Bird, of course we missed you ;)

  30. Looking to buy CEF and GTU. What are suggested price targets?

  31. @Scottj88

    My crystal ball is fuzzy, but I think we see some lower lows for silver into the $31-$32 range Sunday/Monday and then a rally back up to $36-$37 around mid week and then *sigh* another roll over back to retest the low around Thursday/Friday or the following Monday.


  32. is long term silver bull still intact ??? wat say people !! are v on bottom ??

  33. Check This out: Gvernment selling just about EVERYTHING, they are broke, as we all know.
    The great government fire sale is on
    Towns and cities with ravaged revenues are selling municipal treasures to pay the bills..more reason to stock up on PM's

  34. Scottj

    PM's up!!?? USD down!!

    Either way. I think. Been wrong a fair amount the last 2 weeks though.

    Has a double bottom in Silver held?
    Are the flash crashes in Gold yesterday and today acts of panic combined with price manipulation?

    Sure seems worth the risk to put some cash to work. Might hear soon that the go'vt gets another 2 tril to spend in 1.5 years. USD loses another 12-13% ?????

  35. Incrementally added to my positions yesterday & today, almost all in the miners. So far so good, with most entries at or slightly above the lows for the day.

    Used up all my ammo now, so can only wait, watch & hope I made the right move. Also acquired another 150 oz of the AG.

    Glad to see ya back Turd & ites.


  37. > SSK

    I think the spectre of 2008 hangs over all of us silver investors. Many miners lost 80-90%. This was the opposite direction that we all thought they'd move in the meltdown. Flash forward to the present day and now with a 35% loss in just two weeks, it is very hard for almost anyone to keep a cool head.

  38. Oh, and I'd like to inform you that we've got an open interest low for the year at 121k.. 123k was the low for Turd's bottom at the end of January.

    If you don't know how to interpret this, best stay out of the paper game altogether.

    Can't give any better advice, you need to do your own homework or this game will swallow you and puke you out in pieces.

  39. @jng: so Monday looks like a nice buy bet to trade up to $36. Why not right?
    Gotta make some dough to cover these past two weeks. :P

  40. Long term silver bull is very much intact, we might see $28 before we see $50 however. I'm looking forward to seeing what the Turd has to say about this.

  41. I suspect that there is a deal in the works for the debt ceiling. There is no way that the bond market would be behaving like nothing is going on.

  42. If silver drops below $26 I believe, we'll be looking at an intermediate Bear Market.

  43. Are there yet?
    I freaking hope so... but think it's too soon to say... huh?
    35 didn't give up easy today - it put up a pretty good fight - both ways!
    I like it better as support rather than resistance.
    But I'm optimistic =[

  44. Strange trading day for sure. I sold my remaining silver puts this morning. As much as I'd love to see $32 or $30 as a bottom, silver is exhibiting strength and keeps bouncing off the $34 area. My options expire next Friday, and I figured it was better to lock in the gains than to take a chance that next week's trading will be even nuttier. If I've left some money on the table, so be it.

    I'm net long again, and if the price goes down further from here, I'll keep adding to my longs and keep buying physical. Have a good weekend, all!

  45. hey turdites,

    Marting armstrong posted a article yesterday stating that gold will have to correct to 1227 in 2011 or 1237 in 2012 so that the bull market can make its next transition phase. The bull needs to retest and validate its support lines as it did in 2004...

    Here is the link

    here is the pertinent quote from the article...

    "When we came to the 1999 low, you can see how gold initially supported on the bottom of this channel, but failed to ever really bounce. It faded the bottom of the channel and then it gradually traded around this channel. It then closed back up into the channel and rallied
    nicely. Then gold fell back in 2004 to support on it testing its validity from above. That was the key test from which the explosive rally began. Now that we exceeded the top of this channel, it will be the test to fall back to make it support which lies at 1227.90 in 2011 and 1239.30 in 2012 (mathematically calculated). Technical resistance stands at 2000.90 in 2011 and 2037.20 in 2012 with initial support at 1374.10 in 2011 rising to 1410.50 in 2012.
    So those who think I am long-term bearish by merely saying a retest of support is the next stage to prepare for the big rally, need to understand that this is simply a pattern that unfolds in how markets actually trade. We still face the Bonfire of Wealth."

  46. Gold got taken to the cleaners. Anyone else doing long XAU short XAG spread on forex?

    Would like some opinions or feedback.

  47. This correction is beautiful. The panic is palpable and references to 2008 all over again just make it that much clearer that the bull will shake off the maximum number of riders possible, before it's all over. Listen to the Turd - DO NOT SELL. Go for a walk!

  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

  49. @JoeKa

    I'm betting you are seeing the same pattern I'm seeing, silver gets the crap knocked out of it to a lower low or around that area, and then it rallies into the next day on Asian buying and short covering. I just time the lows and put in a stop loss and ride the Asian trade up and sell in the pre market hours, or if we are at the short term top and my funds are settled I'll short and ride it down for the day and close out in anticipation of the Asian buyers and short covering. This pattern will hold until it doesn't.....

    so, yes Monday does look a like a good time to buy and trade up to $36 give or a take a extra day. I'm skittish about holding over weekends after getting my nuts kicked by the drop from $48 to $ buy protection for sure if you can!

  50. Sounds like a good stratedgy there silverLeaf.
    I wish I had some Puts to sell:)

    Gold has now had 3 pretty good tests of 1480.
    Silver now with 3 terrifying pretty good tests of 34.

    Seems like only a regulatory change or some other wild card piece of news can stop PM's from moving higher here. Course options expire next Friday.

    Test 1570 and silver mid 40's in a week or 2????

    Turd - Just wondering how much (%) of your account is still in $.

  51. @jng: I had a nice trade goin right after the CPI numbers and benefitted from a nice pop up in spot. Knowing the mood of the markets that didn't last long and I ended up taking a small loss instead. LoL

    It's getting really difficult to read the market these two weeks I have to say.

    Yeah I plan on a Monday long entry on this range trade.

  52. Turd, just to balance out your readers' answers to your question:

    No way would I pay ANYONE for the privilege of commenting on their blog.

    It's a freedom of speech thing - some of us do stick to our principles.


  53. test... chicken dinner that was blythe for sure in the electronics stuffed Bentley, in fact she knocked out quite a few of my PM sites. So. how. right you are, I was tempted to take it personally, but being a bit past that, i am rather glad to see it wasnt just me she got to, that scamp. the police came to min as well, albeit briefly.

    i know this cunning vixen, you are entirely correct, it was her.

  54. I bought in a third of my powder. Also took a bunch of small hits on the way down. In XAG@44 gold @1489

    Hope this one works out.

  55. Has anyone noticed that the GSR has stalled in the 42,43 area?

  56. MAMMOTH: Agrred, I will not pay either to post on a blog.

  57. Hey All, nice to have the neighborhood restored.

    I'm still long on my AGQs picked up around 165, and I think I'm going to just hold them and see what happens, I'm in a situation where I can just ride out any big dip, and sell when we get to $50 silver. The overnights can be such big move up I'd hate to miss out (although I know it can move down the same way). With QE3 a lock IMHO, I just need patience to get to my goal.

  58. I don't know if that qualified as a bottom test or not on silver. It seemed to qualify price wise, but on a 15 minute chart it just looks like a right neckline of a small head and shoulders starting from yesterday's low. If so the real bottom test will probably be Monday.

  59. So, the other day I posted a comment here about seeing a stack of Morgan & Peace Silver Dollars on Craigslist for $27/ea.

    I chose to sit on the fence and watch.

    That advertisement was gone, i.e; the coins SOLD, less than 24 hrs. later. So at least around here, there is no shortage of demand at the current prices.

    Might be a good idea for the Physical-lovers to keep some dry powder just in case we have a repeat of 2008 and Silver prices go tits-up.


  60. CISCO: AP estimates that 4,000-5,000 job cuts,2817,2385266,00.asp

    That recovery is looking mighty weak.

  61. @JoeKa

    Ha, don't feel bad, I had a short on silver from Turds top of $39 or so (I shorted around $38) and rode it down to $33 and was up 15% via ZSL over a two day period, I got greedy and silver rallied up and my 15% gain shrunk to a 8% gain in less than two minutes.

    Lesson Learned...10% per week is good enough for me.


    and your're right, this market is very hard to time right, unless you have the Turd giving directions.


    DEA to auction five tons of jewelry

    El Paso, Texas--Five tons of gold and silver jewelry is being sold by sealed bid by the United States Marshals Service after it was seized as a result of a money-laundering investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration.

    The lot consists of more than 40,000 ounces of mixed-carat gold jewelry and more than 100,000 ounces of silver jewelry. A complete lot description identifies earrings, rings, watches, chains, pendants, bracelets and more, and can be viewed here.

    read more here...........

  63. @SSK,

    I'm with you 100%. In the process right now of trying to reverse miner positions taken last week. This doesn't look like it's over by a long shot.

  64. I think the $20 fee is a bad idea and might very well discourage desired Turdlings for 3 reasons.

    1. The occasional posters who can, many times, inject a great thought, observation or web site for everyone's consideration

    2. The possible insider who creates one identity for just a few posts and will not leave a trail.

    3. I thought one had to have some "hard bark" to be able to withstand silver market trading.....and you can't handle the occasional troll? Toughen up boys and girls.

    TURD !
    All we need is an ignore poster option. Very simple fix.

  65. @ILUVPMS i have been trying to tell the turdites exactly that. GOLD will be the alltime low of the year in JUNE. I was scoffed at.

  66. Why is there so much negativity and gloom and doom today?

  67. @mammoth

    i understand when people don't want to pay...but what does freedom of speech have to do with this? it's a free privately-owned blog???!!!??? it's not ur corner bodega.

  68. Sweet gold sale. I'd love to see $1460 again before June. Anyone think it will double dip? Looks to be the 100% retracement level from the tip top at 1575 or so.

  69. The Turdites eagerly anticipate our long delayed King's Speech without stutter.
    Oh Turd, we hang on thine every word!
    Beknownest to us as Silver and Gold crash.
    Address us your loyal turdsters
    So that we could make some cash.

  70. TF,

    I agree with Mammoth. Also, having a fee for the right to post makes it too easy for the takers to take and harder for us all to find a way to give back (contribute) to the site.

  71. Eric Janszen @ iTulip had some interesting things to say about silver recently. He DID call the top @ $48.50. For those of you not familiar with him, he is a prolific bubble top-caller and bull bottom caller. He bought silver in 2001 @ $4.50 and didn't say sell until late April @ $48.50. Not trying to promote him here, just pointing out that he's not a hack or "topcallingtroll".

    Right now the 200dma is looking mighty attractive from a cycles perspective. That would jive with Martin Armstrong's June 2011 low based on his money cycle theory...

    People should remember silver is one of the toughest markets to trade out there. I know pros who wouldn't touch silver with a 100ft pole because it would hand them their own heads. I've been trading silver for 5 years and it took me a while to get the hang of it, and only after lots of pain and suffering. And I'm a PRO.

    I'm up 30% this month, was up 59% in April, 39% in March, etc... you get the picture. Listen to the great Turd, Turd the great.

  72. Turd, I have the Thursday post and comments 1-200 open on a browser if you'd like for the archives.

  73. how about transferring 1 cent to a bank account to create your website account. so when somebody trolls you can track back his real identity. just a thought.

  74. How many time can Blogger eat one post?
    4th was the charm.

  75. Regarding pay-to-post: I'm sure most current posters would gladly ante up, but new visitors may balk.

    IMO a slashdot-style karma system that allows self-moderation would handle the trolls without keeping noobs away...

  76. Thats right,Bruce, ....
    this correction feels like panic for anyone who bought too high.....and feels like dinnertime for anyone with good entry points from last year . Imagine those lucky folks who bought everything in march 2009 ....and maybe sold 1/3 at the top in april....and now are just waiting to buy their next tranche whenever a nice bottom happens.....maybe a little more silver at 30....maybe a little more SLW at 28, AG at 14, EGO at 14..... etc like Armstrong forecasts...I was expecting gold to make a bottom around 1250 in february but it 'bottomed' at 1310
    Now I wouldnt touch the buy trigger until it drops at least to the 1420 area

  77. "Cash will be King". At least for a short time. That's what I think.

    As much as I'd like to add to my Gold/Silver/Platinum stack, I'm not buying now. Soon perhaps, but not now. It just feels too weird right now.

  78. As for the new site... Turd, can't you contact Tyler @ Zero hedge and see if he's willing to license Zero hedge software to you? Seems to be a robust platform.

    My vote is donation. Use junk system. A certain amount of junk votes automatically move the post to trash bin or penalty box, subject to admin's discretion for delete.

  79. SLV Trader a mouse could have predicted the top of the silver market. Just have to look at 1980's top. The population saw it, I saw it and you saw it. MOST just didn't/wouldn't/couldn't believe it.

  80. So what type of time line for silver to start climbing again...?
    with the velocity of the correction being a bit underestimated, is this going to be a prolonged period of sideways movement?
    what are people's thoughts...
    - recover from correction and make healthy move up in near/ mid term?
    -Make no major move up or down for near/ mid term?
    - Or much deeper correction for PMs dragging silver back below the surface...?

    Just trying to steer the course... Some may have navigated these rough seas in years past. What is on the Horizon?

  81. Silver has the look of a late afternoon raid again, gold too. Larger volumes to bid it up than bring it down today.

    Need an illusion of a strong dollar for weekend of debt ceiling talks. Dollar close over 76 and tops next week at 77.

  82. I'm following you into gold Turd...but I picked up some double long DGP doesn't move like AGQ...and then doesn't move like AGQ!

    Thanks for the post!

  83. Turd: Regarding a troll fee

    Yes, the trading info is more than worth it for those who wish to but your site has evolved beyond just the trading aspect into a lesson in the corruption of our economic system to point the new & unwashed to.

    A fee won't completely stop trolls and may negatively affect the drawing in & education of "Joe Fleeced Sheep/Six-pack.

    A filter & poster rating system will help the new to quickly identify the shills & trolls.

    Any use of Facebook for logging in is contrary to common sense security & privacy principals, who ever suggested that needs to get educated on what they are dealing with.

    "Don't make the mistake of thinking you're Facebook's customer, you're not, you're the product,"

    /#6 attempt?

  84. There was a young man named Turd
    Who no one could shake or perturb
    The Trolls he would fight
    And give Blythe a fright
    He then kicked them all to the curb

  85. Blogger is choking on hot linking urls? SMH...

    The new site can't get up soon enough, I hope Jessie & Sinclair move away from it as well.

  86. If the trolls pay a fee, and they will, they will come back more often because they paid for the right. Put a "Gong" button on and once a poster gets so many gongs they are on probation and banned if they continue their gong collecting. Turd, you seem like the Gong Show type to me. It fits!

  87. On the 8-hr silver chart it looks like a falling wedge.

  88. Edward

    ( Note grabbed this from another blogger I Figured it fit here. )

    USA Inflation is low because Rest Of The World (ROTW) has been absorbing the inflation we're creating; soaking up the excess $ we're creating via various ways.

    However ROTW is done; they're increasing interest rates, wages climbing, etc. The inflation will start fire back towards USA like a coiled spring action. The conundrum we've faced with consistently low inflation despite our pumping will roar back with it's opposite cousin: conundrum about why inflation keep climbing no matter what we do or how high our interest or is set to.

    We're entering phase 2 of the final collapse. I hope everyone's had a chance to move your wealth offshore, coz when the tsunami starts, you won't have a chance to react. If it's still in USD when phase 2 hits full force, you will have nothing to run to.

    TPTB want you to believe the dollar is king, don't fall far it, its a dieng currency.

  89. 3rd try on this post! (Luckily, I compose offline first)


    I have been pretty quiet the past couple of weeks. Reading your posts carefully and soaking up what all the more sage Turdites have to say. But patience has never been my long suit. Lots of tolerance, but not so much patience. One of my weaknesses. So, I am getting a little desperate to gain a sense of what the next few weeks are likely to bring. (Of course, that’s what everybody always would like to know, isn’t it?)

    I got really hammered in the May Day Massacre. If I had liquidated on Friday, I would have been up close to 80% on my combined positions. But greed kept me long, looking for that other 15-20%. Of course, you know the rest of the story. That which I was already intellectually cognizant of, I now KNOW at a gut level. I will never make that mistake again.

    The question now is, how to recover? I know the silver bull is not dead. I am a firm believer in the fundamentals a la Maloney, and Turd. But has it had the wind knocked out of it for a while? Will it take months for the longs to come back? Is the old “sell in May and walk away” going to be everyone’s mantra now? I am reading SOOOO much along those lines that it is hard to not wonder if it’s valid, or at least that it’s what is going to happen, and therefor valid.

    I know we are in uncharted territory now and you are honest about that. I am not asking you to be a soothsayer, psychic or witch. Just be our navigator. Use whatever information and judgment you can to help us decide which course to steer now.

    Thanks, Turd!

    Oh, and all you pure physical cats, you can save your breath. The whole purpose of my paper trading is to accumulate enough fiat to buy massive amounts of physical so I can be you, okay? The strategy is: FIAT -> MORE FIAT -> METAL -> REAL ESTATE (Actually, I want to be Fortinbras!) :)

  90. anybody else still have other pm sites down, Harvey Organ for example, also GATA, sorry for off topic, strange though.

  91. Turd's morning E-mail post

    The "Blogger" service is down. Apparently Google tried to upload an update and the entire service blew up.
    I have had no communication from them regarding when it will be back online, so here's a quick update:

    The metals rallied overnight while the dollar backed off. Gold got to 1516 and silver made it to 36.45.
    That's probably as far as they are going to go until next week. As mentioned yesterday, let's watch for a dip now.
    Hopefully, silver will head back down toward 33-34 and then stop and reverse. Gold looks like 1495, at which point I'll be a buyer.
    Hang in there today. Personally, I've kind of enjoyed the "vacation". If Blogger isn't back up by later today, I'll send you another email with a closing summary. TF

    Thanks for the update Turd. Got back into GLD June calls after the waterfall.

  92. sp said...
    "what does freedom of speech have to do with this? it's a free privately-owned blog"
    a. The principal of freedom of speech was intended by this nation's founders.

    b. Turd does not delete blog comments which run counter to his views, so evidently he believes in freedom of speech.

    c. Stifling the voice of those who refuse to pay to speak just seems to go against the grain of the openness of the Internet and this blog as a community.


  93. Fear is a good and healthy thing. Make it work for you and not against you. You are supposed to buy on fear and sell on greed. I get a rush buying when I am fearful. I assure you that if everytime there is a smackdown you buy 100 shares of exk or sil or ngd, you will end up making a great return. Just lay off the buy button when they are going up and keep the buy ins small on the way down. GTLA

  94. Correct me if I am wrong but in gold and silver according to charts over at Jesse Cafe Americain, there tend to be price spikes up following OE but what I see is also some selling tendencies into OE.

    Does anyone have a different read on this? For the last three options expirations in Gold, price spiked up substantially after the expiration but before the expiration it sold down.


    Click below to read why silver market manipulation will not end soon:

    Click on the next link to watch a hilarious animation telling you why you should buy physical silver:

    Finally, click on this last link to read why the CFTC is doing nothing about market manipulation:

  96. Gramps asks what is next for Silver:
    "-Make no major move up or down for near/ mid term?
    - Or much deeper correction for PMs dragging silver back below the surface...?"
    Just my guess:
    30% no major moves for near / mid-term
    70% deeper correction (because with Oil's price spike just beginning to really ripple through the System, things are starting to smell like 2008.)

    Again - just a guess - other more seasoned members of this community may have a different opinion.

  97. @ Joe Ka..."Has anyone noticed that the GSR has stalled in the 42,43 area?"

    Joe looking at the monthly chart on netdania for the gold/silver ratio, there appears to strong resistance from about 46 to 50 range. So this would be a place to buy silver. I was targeting 25/1 to buy gold using silver but we never got there. Now we know that 31 will be a support area and time to buy some gold. Good luck

  98. Just for fun to forecast....whaddya think of watching SLW now.....sell it at 38 and rebuy it at 28? does that sound crazy? The chart shows the idea . As I look at the chart, I dont want to buy it anywhere above it fail at 36 struggle around 35,drop to 31 struggle at 35 drop to 30 ...I might buy a little at 30, watch it struggle at 35 etc.... if it gets to 38 sell my highest entry (35) in preparation for the next wave down to retest 30 and wait for 28 to buy ,and anticipate buying more at 27 and 24.50 the bottom zone. If this occurs around late summer it fits last years rhythem.
    this is just my guess work.not advise.

  99. anyone know if Trader Dan is having same site problems

  100. @mammoth

    b. he just posted asking if we should charge to eliminate trolls. clearly the jury is not 100% out.

    c. openness of the internet?

    u r getting free trading information which could be sold to a hedge fund prob for 7 digits. no joke.

    the trolls simply increase the noise to signal ratio. it is not as much of a problem at zerohedge b/c i doubt anyone goes there for true trading info. it is more of a general info site than a trading site. if u read buffet's letters he has commented in the past about how important it is for him to be in omaha and away from all the noise on wall street and how that has helped him make decisions and stick with them.

    it's ok to have different viewpoints, it's also good to have information that adds to our analysis even if contrary. it does no good to anyone to say i told u so every time it crashes. most of us r here b/c we already understand implications of the fed policy. the last thing someone needs who is just learning about this process is to be knocked back into the keynesian world simply due to a few anonymous troll posts.

    u get what u pay for.

  101. @Mammoth - It's not a Free Speech issue. This blog is private property.

  102. @edd

    yes, I got the same thing yesterday and today when trying to read his site. And I believe his last post disappeared, too. Same with ...he even mentions he had to report his post from yesterday...

  103. @Markus
    "Oh, and I'd like to inform you that we've got an open interest low for the year at 121k.. 123k was the low for Turd's bottom at the end of January.

    If you don't know how to interpret this, best stay out of the paper game altogether."

    Hope this helps those of us educating ourselves:

  104. Regarding the new site, I would caution against turning the whole site into a "pay to post" deal. Part of this site's appeal is that anyone can post a question here and get informed answers.

    Keeping the primary discussions in a Troll-Free zone would be nice though.

    Personally, I would like to see 3 types of areas set up:
    1) Open to the public.
    2) Pay-to-post, but open to all for reading.
    3) Closed forum for paid members only, because exclusivity sells.

    Most of the current discussion would fall under the 2nd section with most of us ignoring the first one unless we are really bored.

  105. Mammoth,

    Thanks for reminding me about Craigslist - I looked on my local and there's someone selling Eagles for $35, posted yesterday. Don't know yet if I'll get them, but I emailed him about it.

  106. @ScottJ,

    Thought of you as I came across these political sites.

    Comeback America Initiative. David Walker is involved with these folks.

    and, I can't view due to connection speed issues. Looks like a non partisan political movement.

  107. @ Mammoth... thanks for the relpy! and in %'s... that's how i like to think also!
    OK... just a 30 year old newbie here...
    So if silver works it's way down into the mid/ upper $20's, what type of timeframe for advancing agian? 3 months? 3 years?
    No crystal Ball I know...;)

  108. pforth wrote:

    "I think the spectre of 2008 hangs over all of us silver investors. Many miners lost 80-90%. This was the opposite direction that we all thought they'd move in the meltdown. Flash forward to the present day and now with a 35% loss in just two weeks, it is very hard for almost anyone to keep a cool head."

    Definitely lost my cool. Almost lost my head!

    After every bad loss, I just repeat my mantra: Time to go make it back.

    It's the reversal days that drive me nuts. One minute you're sitting there with thousands of dollars in good trades. Then it evaporates and you're down ten grand and you're stopped out.

    I only own gold miners (and some very old HL). I'm out of silver until this bizarro world rights itself.

  109. Economic analyst.

    I find it hard to believe that we will correct 200 dollars by june.. how do you see this playing out.. Armstrong in his latest letter does not call for a low in june.. now he says we either hit support in 2011 at 1227, or in 2013 at 1237... he says resistance is arount 2000 during those time frames..

    can you please elaborate what a low in june is for you and how we get there.

  110. Re: the proposed fee -

    I've reconsidered my original position, and I now favor a modification of Ninja Report's proposal. Here's what I'd like to see:

    1) Open to public for reading and posting - but with an ignore feature and/or gongs so that trolls could be identified and/or tossed overboard. Turd MUST have the ability to toss someone in his own discretion.

    2) Private viewing and posting for a fee.

    Why avoid a public viewing/for-fee posting area? Because I think that the very best analyses and advice/opinion will be there, and why should people be able to glom off of that info without paying?

    Whatever Turd decides, however, will be fine with me...not that any of us really have a choice (other than not looking or paying). I trust his judgment and, anyway, its his site (or Mrs. Ferguson's, as the case may be).


    CNN now covering US Dollar to possibly loose reserve status

  112. If the new site does go with an ignore button for trolls, I suggest that in honor of the Turd, we call it a "flush" instead of a "junk" button. ;)

    I vote in favor of a $20 membership fee.

  113. @Markus

    Where's the best place to get OI info? Thx.

  114. Medicare, Social Security outlook worsens

  115. Under "normal" circumstances our low in silver would play out like this chart:

    Pardon my poor drawing skills.....

    It will be interesting to see how accurate this chart is 4-5 weeks from now.

  116. I agree with SwiftBoatVet and his reasonings on the whole fee for the new site deal. I *may* be there if I have to pay ..but I may not as well. Depends on the fee amount as much as anything I guess. Not that I add much to this site..I know that I don't. But there are many like me who are newly awakened and who literally are trying to get and keep their noses above water by learning and preparing as fast as we can. TF started this site as a way for us all to learn and prepare. A fee will knock many out of the game around here.

    I just hope there is another way for TF to finance the site...thru continued donations even...but not a mandatory fee. I have no problem with donating. I have done so in the past albeit was a very nominal amount (so far).

    I guess the bottom line is what you really want to turn the site into. If it's a place for only day traders or centered around any one concept of 'preparing'...then charging a fee will probably be a good idea because it will naturally only attract those who are interested in that one topic ...sort of the best and brightest who want to discuss that topic. But if you want the site to be a gathering place where many different topics regarding preparation for the end of the great keynesian experiment are discussed..then you are going to cut out many who would be valuable contributors by charging them for the privilege of discussion.

  117. Washington Debt Limit Talks Embroiled in Chaos...

  118. Since you asked TF, I'm not in favor of a 'pay for post' membership. It's your site, and I'll still visit it for the insight of both you and my peers here, but I too think that this is not the best way to keep the trolls out.

  119. Does the owner of post here? found your site during the blogger outage, not cool to steal content like that, man...

  120. Today is interesting. We got a strong dollar rally, yet SLV is up. Would it be that $33 is the solid support for SLV? Crude is also not falling so far.

  121. Can anyone buy calls of gold or siler on Scottrade? How?

  122. @uptofreedom

    Great catch. Looks like the guy is lifting directly from Turd and ZH. Pretty weak.

  123. @SSK

    these markets are truly insane.

    Despite being generally right by being long USD, I have been day trading 30-40% of my position in and out of CAD the last few days and have gotten it almost completely wrong each time, so have managed to worsen my average despite having the right overall position.

    I really thought today that we would crack, so I bailed out of all my long CAD positions...but now that looks questionable. Panicking sure seemed the right move to me at the time.

    Silver has been moving OPPOSITE to stocks, and opposite to some other commodities too, which is really bizarro world, IMO.

    In the end I have decided to stay completely away from the intra day moves in everything, oil, silver, gold, and currencies. At least until some of the big issues overhanging markets are settled.

    Especially over this weekend I do not want to have any position of substance. I am holding USD over anything else, just because I think the euro is in deep trouble.

    But I also wonder if the commodity bull run is over? I don't want to stick around to find out, as I think any correction could be massive,like 10% or 20%.

    Greece is done for, just a question of time.

    I still believe the realization of either massive bank losses or more taxpayer bailouts will cause stocks and commodities to finally crash.

    My confidence level on that actually happening though is about a 3, as nothing is happening as it 'should' lol.

    Experience tells me the dollar should move up again at the close (big trends are very often continued at days end, as people caught the wrong way scramble to cover before the close) but I am pretty sure it won't, as that would make too much sense.

    Cash may not be king, but it sure seems the best thing to hold right now.

    Good luck.


    Rather than repeat what has already been well said, I want to go on record as supporting the comments of: JohnBoatCat, Alyce, Jeff, J, ScottJ88, SBV, Catseyenu and others who have basically said it's a bad idea that runs counter to the stated purpose of the blog. It will not stop trolls but will discourage new/infrequent/insider posters and result in loss of valuable new input.

    Personally, in the last 4 months I don't think trolls have been much more than an annoyance. They have been dealt with pretty effectively. Everyone just needs to remember not to feed them.

    And some who were thought to be trolls have turned out not to be. IMHO the current system is all that broken.

  125. im out of this crazy market just about completely as of yesterday. sitting in mostly all cash right now. i dont think im going to bite on anything perhaps for the next month or even two. There are huge jitters happening in random market sectors. Im not experienced enough to know if this is all just 'normal' bs but it feels like a precursor to 2008 all over again (until further central liquidity is supplied i suspect).

    My new strategy is to buy puts on any strength. i cant possibly see us doing some moonshoot past 36, so if we go into monday feeling good and happy and we're over that price target, im going short.

    On a side note, being able to function normally and not obsessively check spot price is a nice change from the past two weeks worth of behavior.

  126. Charging to comment is a bad idea. The trolling problem is not really a problem and I've noticed anyway, a lot of times, the "trolls" are just people with opposing views. There's nothing wrong with that and it's certainly more healthy to have different points of views than having a bunch of "I agree" comments around.

    Ignore/flag buttons are easy to implement in platforms like wordpress, drupal, etc.

  127. My .02 on the fee-

    If it had been a fee site, I wouldn't have joined...lots of "stock tip" sites out there charging money, and totally worthless, I would have just assumed this was another one.

    At first, I just came over here as a way to read about metals and economics without the endless ZH flaming, it was several weeks before I really started paying attention to what Turd was saying.

    And finally, I think it would get stale to just hear the same old folks chime in (except for afrum, he's special... ;-).

    If Turd wants to do a once a year "pledge drive", I'd buy an expensive t-shirt or tote bag, or even "The collected afrum" on CD.

  128. average joe , i'm with you on xau - i brought about the same as you (average in about 1489),

    i didn't do xag though as i'm waiting for 32.5

  129. In the end I have decided to stay completely away from the intra day moves in everything, oil, silver, gold, and currencies. At least until some of the big issues overhanging markets are settled.


    Agreed, i am leaning more toward food producers myself, and supermarkets for the time being.Seems the EE has the mining stocks in their rearview and can take them in any direction they seem fit. My move is a temporary one but I have to grab what I can when I can.

  130. p.s. average joe - are you using a stop loss for xau , or are you in it for the long term ?

  131. Turd if your objective is to educate the masses do not charge any fees. On your own website you will be able to get rid of anyone you choose and I even think you can ban an IP-Address not just a user name. Don't let the Turkeys get you down.

  132. Turd,

    Great to have you back! It felt strange not having the community around.

    You have a real knack for calling the trends. It looks like I'm becoming a daytrader instead of a swing trader thanks to this volatility. Loaded up on SLV puts this morning expecting the retest.. sure enough we got one and rode it down to 34.15 as the RSI pointed the way to the exit.

    Anyone think we have the bottom? I'm thinking we will see more EE fingerprints on the charts next week with OPEX and we will probably retest the low 33's as a result.

  133. I have no problem with a one time membership fee. I think it would do wonders to keep the population of trolls in check.

    If people are too damn cheap to pay for sound financial advice, fuck em; I wish them much luck as they enjoy the ( free ) brilliance of Seeking Alpha and the Yahoo Financial message boards.

  134. @Larry, you can buy GLD or SLV options. Did you fill out the options form to get access to this? If you are talking about future contracts I don't think Scottrade does that.

  135. LOL kiwi.. ...afrum just never gets old. I agree. I seek his posts out now too. He has a mysterious way of putting things. I always feel like there's a veiled prediction in there somewhere that I need to decipher and be aware of ..combined with a poetically written and explained history lesson and topped off with a expertly delivered verbal body blow aimed at taking down all the rat bastards. :D

  136. @Rowley,

    That is just silly dude. Opposing views are not trolls, and trolls are not opposing views.

    Do you think a bunch of hardcore contrarians like us are somehow unfamiliar with the stark difference between the 2?

    Do you not see the distinction then?

  137. @MB

    People claiming the USD will stop being a 'reserve' currency don't understand the most basic economic principles.

    A simple example:

    If China wants to sell stuff to the USA, they must either accept US$ or US goods in return.

    So far they opted for the paper, which they hold in treasuries as part of their total reserves.

    The USD stops being a reserve currency when the US has trade surpluses (in the most simple terms)

    Think about that. That will not be a bad place for the US to be. In fact it's one of Bernanke's real goals.

  138. @ILUVPMS, we could get to Armstrong's new numbers via a deflationary wave hitting the markets. In a centrally planned economy, it could be the setup for a justification of QE3. In a selloff like that, slamming the PM's would be cake, silver could actually retrace to $25 temporarily, especially with the combo of spec longs who got into the parabola late waiting for a retrace to lighten up and panicking out + spillover liquidation from general selloff + Blythe's thugs pushing down on the market hard with HFT algos.

    Silver is going higher, but the market is DESIGNED to wipe out retail traders.

    Someone else made a comment about expiration and the price action in PM's beforehand. The price is usually pinned according to max pain. Checkout to get some more info on the topic. It's basically market-makers and the big traders sloshing institutional $$ who stand to make the most profits as a result of their option-selling closer to expiration.

    @Economic Analyst - Do you follow Janszen? He is not your run of the mill market caller. - his reputation is well-deserved. Again, I m not promoting him, but unless you know the man, it's tough to downplay his calls. He is, in fact, a genius. It's like dismissing Sinclair or Armstrong in relation to gold and fiat. Just saying...

    @ the rest of you looking to repair some of the $ damage in your brokerage accounts:

    hi ho silver

  139. Can any of you experts shed some light on the falling open interest? A couple of posts mentioned this and that we should know what it means. I think a lot of us don't and this blog board would be a great place to help us understand. I was under the impression that the extremely high open interest is the reason They are beating silver down; to get some positions closed.

    So, falling open interest means They are finally going to back off silver?

  140. Stevy

    I notice turd is also waiting on silver. Will hold over weekend and decide if I sell out Sunday or Monday hopefully for profit. Option expiry has me worried

  141. There is very little doubt in my mind we will see $150 - $200 silver in the next 2-3 years. The question is, will we see $50 silver in the next 4-5 months?

    @ Ginger

    You have brought a lot of value to this blog over the past few months, I am presuming to speak for what I think are many lurkers/infrequent posters who identify with you. When I post, it is usually aimed at that unseen audience as well. IMHO, that's who the blog was created to serve. It's not that the more seasoned pros who have joined us are not important, they certainly are and they have become a bigger part of the conversation recently, much to our benefit. But if the purpose of the blog is still outreach and education of those who are just beginning to prepare, then we need to constantly remember that audience. (And we need to remember that there are five categories of wealth.)

    So post away, Ginger!

  142. Thanks Mike for info. I am good to go on options. I thought about GLD and SLV right after I posted. Thanks!

  143. @Brian - Yep... I shot abuse at zerohedge dot org an email, figured Turd's inbox is prolly overflowing right now so didn't bother. Hopefully he catches these comments...

  144. Turd, this may have already been mentioned since I don't have time to read all the posts today.

    In addition to educating the masses objective . . . you will still get trolls who pay $20 and then it complicates matters to ban a paying member . . . keep it free and rule with an iron fist because it is free.

  145. What would happen to the short PM ETFs like ZSL if the market crash ala 2008?

  146. Just an update from my 200,000 June calls at $40 that i bought yesterday for $75,000 at $34.....made me a sweet 100% return within 24 hours on the bounce and sold around $36 for a profit of $75,000...gotta ,love this volatile market for a nice "bottom bounce".

    Seems like we have carved ourselves a "tripple bottom" in silver which leads to some credence that the chinese have put a floor under the market at certain levels in the metals. Gotta love the CME and the american establisment for pushing thier precious metals east at below market value...god bless america!

  147. word verification was "gessabit"

  148. Thank you OldNavy!

    You and so many others here are the real assets to TF's blog (well....and of course TF himself!) I'm just an every-mom ...and no one who's talents lie within the realm of investing AT ALL. That is what I meant. I'm not someone who can teach others how to invest and make money. What I can do is talk about preparing on the most basic of levels where it has to do with loving one another and being there to offer a helping hand. That almost sounds rediculous in this world nowadays. "/ ...But it's all I can offer. .....Well, ...that and being an options guinea pig. :D :D

    Speaking of which...I'm still hanging in there with you on trying to recover. :| ...Hopefully the next few weeks will be kind to us!

  149. Not keen on the fee paying idea. No one can complain about free guidance when it goes wrong.
    I followed the tip to buy AGQ before the crash;
    it was a good free lesson in taking responsibility ! If it had gone the other way & made quick money there is the donate button.
    Must be a way to weed out the trolls and still spread the word to the wider world.

  150. Here comes Oanda 15 cent spreads in silver again. Hope it isnt for volatillity coming. Spreads do get larger after market closes ussually

    No stop losses on XAU

  151. Hoo boy, my Pelangio Exploration (PGXPF) has just been killin' me. Bottom of my board today, down 11+% on the day. Oh happy Friday ye shareholders.

    This thing has been up from the teens to a buck plus twice, and is now into the low .50's after its last trip to 1.30.

    I'm in it for the long haul but won't buy again for fear of grabbing a falling knife... Very surprising to me. But this is a great example of what happens in Minerworld for ya. So not that surprising after all :-)

  152. Oh, and I want to add KiwiQuest07's last post to my list of views I support. If there had been a fee to join, I probably would have passed this site by. Of course, I think the suggestion on the floor is for a fee to POST, right. Still, I vote no. I think it would stifle newbies.

    This a wonderful learning place. It's like an open dojo where Turd is the sensei and there are many black belts and brown belts practicing here as well. But to be of maximum value, it needs new white belts all the time.

  153. Being in this market is really not a thing
    of joy or delight. Have cut back on my miners
    today, again. The SPY seems to hold together,
    but the HUI and CVE just seems to be slipping
    away. I'm just half in and half out. They could
    be very close to a bottom, but not holding my
    breath. Thought about taking out a coffee short.
    It seems to have missed out on its turn for demolition. There are concerns about frost
    damages crops in Brazil, but thats just a fundo, should be pretty safe to overlook that
    one. Let them drink Tea.

  154. on that note, oldNavy, the open dojo aspect is what I think the underlying game changer is: the internet. It's exactly this free flow of information that TPTB didn't plan on, imo...

  155. @ewc58 One, I said "a lot of times," not all. A perfect example, just a few days ago some of the regular was calling humahuaca a troll because he was long the dollar and ruffled some feathers because he didn't agree with everything that was being said. Everyone wanted to ignore him, told him to go away, yet he's certainly not a troll and I think is providing a nice different perspective. I've seen it happen a few times in the two months I've been here. There is not a troll problem here, so does that mean distinction between the two is getting lost? I don't want to sidetrack from the real conversation, just giving my two cents. Worth the price charged.

  156. My view having been in a reader and poster of this blog since I found it from Zero Hedge 6 months ago is to say that it should remain true to its goal of educating people to "the end of the great keynesian experiment" and that in my mind means free access but a self regulating structure that allows people to see who has + or - on their posts as to weed out trolls and retards. I personally have had my eyes opend to the markets in the last 6 months and have profited as a result and intend to pay back in kint to Turd again for this egalitarian website.

  157. Old Navy - like the Dojo analogy a lot.

    Silver trading is truly a martial art.

  158. Nice rounded bottom pattern forming with TRE since September of last year. Looks like the worst is behind for Santa's stock, looking to nibble on retests at $6.50. I'm thinking we could break $7.50 by June?

    Out of all stocks in the traditional IRA today, asking for the distribution next week. Loading up on physical gold down near $1420-$1445. Praying for patience, as I don't want to chase higher.

  159. @Hillsie
    are these exchange traded or OTC?

  160. I, too, like the dojo analogy. We will be black belt testing next weekend (not son) and just yesterday my son told me that some of the masters in a management team meeting were talking about a lack of new white belts signing up (the economy?) ...Doesn't take much to look out into the future and see that without the new blood...the white belts...the place would eventually dry up!

    Every enterprise needs new blood, new ideas, new thoughts on ways to do things better. So it goes with the martial arts AND with preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment.

  161. So many stocks to watch bottoming now..... but two that I see are making a wave 5 drop now into next week might complete a bottom as they move into a decent buy zone....I like PIRGF around 5.70 - 5.40 area and ICMTF around 1.05 area

  162. Very elated to hear so many of you throwing in the towel. Turd, I suspect you maybe correct.

  163. @wayne Edwars

    I used to trade forex spot but found it too volitile so switched to covered warrants on the spot price of silver from Sociey General.

    I trade it via an online stock broking account in the UK and I have found it better than day trading as it takes out the risk of unfunded accounts gettng closed positions. Like I said i made 100% on the bounce today and had previusly madsalot more in the run up from $36 to when I sold at $46.5 at a 500% mark up. I like them because i can relax about not losing a position in volatility but benefiting from the leverage.

  164. Rowley, fair 'nuff, you did qualify it. At times however, we do suffer from real trolls.

    But I like many do not want to see this go to a paid site. Why? Mostly, I'm worried it might limit my exposure to... opposing views! We're on the same track mate. And same team: Team Turd :-)
    Have a great weekend, see ya here on Monday

  165. Perhaps a little off topic, BUT:

    I used to think there was no way we would ever face confiscation.

    Two recent developments make me think otherwise:

    We are quickly devolving into a nation where fundamental rule of law is starting to break down.

    Turd posted the 60 Minutes piece about open fraud in home foreclosures.

    And I think back on the Citizen's united decision, giving corporation unlimited ability to influence elections with money.

    All of these things are literally being BLESSED by the courts.

    We are becoming a fascist oligarchy.

    Sometimes I beleive we already are.

  166. @ Larry

    I have a Scottrade account and do not believe you can buy and sell calls and puts on the actual metal. That said you CAN (if your account is approved for option trading) buy them on GLD and SIL the fake proxies for the metals. Just go to the tab labled trading and select options.

    Recently I discovered that I can place orders from 7:00 am until 8:00 pm via pre-session and post-session trading and have been putting in orders there. I caught EXK at $8.40 in yesterday's pre-session. To do that takes placing the order 3 times - pre-session order, again when regular trading begins and a 3rd time when two minutes after regular trading ends.

    I'm trading in an IRA so for options I'm limited to covered calls.



  167. before i pop off, have alook at this junior producer/explorer

    im in for 1.25 million shares and believe were going to be looking at a ten fold increase in resources coupled with a 3 fold increase in silver value from last estimate of $17. Could be a 10 pound a share company in 6 months from the 34p at the moment.

    100 mil oz indicated in the ground at $50 = $5 bil / 330 mil shares = $15 per share....... not including inferred or the other mine thery have estimated at 50 mil oz.

    top tip ;-) (im loaded up...cant get anymore b4 resource JORC comes out in summer)


  168. Haven't caught up with everybody, just wanted to say I bought a little paper gold (SGOL) this morning at 1485. Scared money never gets it right, but I feel really good about this one. If it gets cheaper, I buy more. F 'em.

    If you buy something that you can hold forever, then you win.

  169. TF,

    Please, leave this blog free to read. Had your sage counsel been pay-to-view, I would have assumed you were another 'Kachingo! $50 million dollaroonees in three months!' a-hole, and would never have known what I was missing.

    Pay to post (nominal, say $10/yr), paypal only, WITH the gong system/benevolent dictatorship. Refund if you get the boot. Don't come back.

    Areas I'd like to see:
    Financial preparation
    Food preservation
    Power generation
    Water purification
    HVAC options
    Alternate vehicle fuels
    Firearms basics
    Medical necessities
    Trade and commerce post melt-down

    Markets and Trading
    Patterns of interventions
    Market interactions (spot/futures/slv/agq)
    Intra-day trading
    Swing trading
    Instrument Correlations
    Specific instrument trading discussions
    - Futures
    - ETF's
    - Options
    - Miners
    People who don't suck

    Ummm, is that too much?

  170. Averagejoe, was your experience with AVAFX good and would you recommend them?


  171. Ahh, the nuclear disaster That Time Forgot. Sounds like Fuk-u-shima is soon gonna make a BIG reappearance in the "news" cycle, very likely bull rushing its way back in.

    While they lulled us into dreamland and stole our lunch money over the past 5 weeks, little ole Fukie just kept percolating. And now things have gone to, well, hell:

    PLEASE buy kelp, spirulina, and chlorella supplements to help your bodies deal with any trace nastys we may be encountering. Or encounter lots more of. The best way to deal is to NOT let toxicity build up. Leave the liquid iodine for any major, local nuke event (as in near Reactors up and down the Mississippi). These green foods, taken daily, help cleanse toxins and also have a long list of other benefits. All natural. Organic.

    Chin, please feel free to chime in on how we can play it smart dealing with this from a nutritional standpoint. I'm probably missing something important.

    Here's links to these items on Swanson. I almost always find their prices are lowest or nearly lowest on most supplements. Even for non-Swanson brands. Great service too.

    Buy these items wherever you like, just start supplementing your diet as soon as possible. More so your KIDS!

    kelp (iodine source):


    Please act.

  172. @humahuaca

    Really? So global trade encompases only the USA selling products to china in return for fiat? That's news to me!

    When a Canadian business purchases product overseas, they pay for it in USD. They purchase USD with their CAD for delivery to whichever business they are dealing with. When oil is pulled out of the ground in the ME, it's priced in USD regardless of where it is delivered. Everything is priced in USD's as the worlds reserve currency.

    Losing the reserve currency status is much bigger than USA vs China since is's the rest of the world that buys USD in order to conduct trade. If the buying power of the USD continues to deteriorate, what manufacturer or producer will want to continue to accept USD in return for products/services they provide?

    Over time - none. It's inevitable anyone would look to trade in some form of currency deemed less volatile.

    Sure, its in China's interest to prolong the decline as long as they can. Unlike France in the early 1900's China is in no position to force the USA to repay the debt. France was and did so by sending troops into Germany who ensured repayment of the rebt using hard assets (coal).

    It is an orderly decline until it becomes disorderly as the world starts to think twice.

  173. @humahuaca said...

    Quote: "People claiming the USD will stop being a 'reserve' currency don't understand the most basic economic principles. A simple example: If China wants to sell stuff to the USA, they must either accept US$ or US goods in return. "

    Trade has to be mutual beneficial to start with. Once China realizes they are trading real fruit of their labor for phony papers they'd stop to trade instead with someone else that has valuable product for exchange. With 70% of GDP coming from consumption there's not enough productive output, ergo the perennial trading deficit and the inevitable weakness of US$.

  174. Latest COT is out. EE didn't get the chance to cover much in the last reporting period, it seems.

  175. For OandA traders out there, forgot to mention I also have positions in AUD/USD.

    AUD position is a carry position to hedge interest charge on XAU and XAG positions. Sometimes I just need to wait it out and cool the jets, impulse and emotional trades just kills trades.

    Agree on no stop loss with XAU. I do set trailing stops on profitable positions. Profit is profit. Having made some $$ is better than losing. Trade in smaller lot size in high volatility market. Trade larger positions in low volatility, trending markets.

    As a trader, I trade to be right (profit follows right trades), protect the profit, and convert profit to physical. Hind sight is 20-20. Could have, should have, etc etc.

    Past two weeks had been humbling. Going from +50% yoy to -50% yoy realized P&L. Lessons learned. Reality is a harsh teacher.

  176.'re not done with us yet?

  177. Turd - if you're going for a forum rather than a blog, go vBulletin. Assign a few moderators to act as troll slayers. Come up with a detailed TOS (terms of service) so everyone knows the deal.

    I think $20 FEE to join is a conflict of interest. If that's what it comes down to, then anyone who pays should know where that money is going. A simple donation button would be plenty!

    Reading through all these comments gets painful. The last post was completely off topic. I don't come here to read about nutrition, there's all sorts of blogs and forums for that. I come to bask in my Turdyness.

  178. Silverbleve's idea but not sure if out here at moment.

    The idea was to get us all turdites to buy together and try to put a up tick in the market. I think it 42.50 next week would be a great chance. Seems most are willing to take a stand there. Yea I know were a spit in the bucket, but it would feel good to see a bounce. Which it most likely will anyway, then we take credit:)

  179. Rui,

    that sounds like awful news then. =/

  180. ewc58

    You like the sea-based greens (spirulina,etc.) I like the land based (wheatgrass,barleygrass), but clearly we are on the same page. Amazing Stuff. :D

  181. Ginger

    A buddy of mine is leaning on me real hard to start selling covered call options. Will probably give it a try. I'm sure it's just a gateway drug to being a wild and wooly steely eyed option trader just like you!! Wish me luck!!

  182. EWC58,

    Don't know if it says so in the article but it is my understanding that one of those storage pools, possibly #4, has 25 spent reactor cores in it.
    I'm calling Swansons.

  183. I sort of chuckle when someone starts a sentence with "Once China realizes" if they have no clue we are giving them nothing for production. Peter Schiff says this all the time. I wonder if he really thinks they don't know what they are doing or if this is just a pattern of speech. I'm certain "they realize". That's why they've been hoarding gold and silver like it's going out of style. They realize alright. They are just accumulating and biding their time.

  184. I'm not a coffee drinker, but now I know what withdrawal symptoms are like. I thought this blog had been hacked when I checked in this morning and things seemed amiss. Dammit, it looks like I'm developing a dependence on Turd, and I don't know if that's good or bad.

  185. anyone think china's easing on silver margins are behind the late afternoon rally? wasn't it announced last night, though?

  186. Was just watching this youtube

    and watching the clock run down on a winning gold bid. Happy Happy Joy Joy!!!!!

  187. From Jesse's Website:

    The weekly range in silver was remarkable, but notice that it ended the week fairly close to where it left off last week.

    The banks are desperate, and facing a large amount of potential demand in the June contracts. They do not seem to be able to find supply, so they are struggling to dampen demand and obtain corollary trading profits in the miners and related sectors.

    A very unsettled set of markets indeed, with the BRICs buying heavily, and the Anglo-American financial cartel fighting it every step of the way.

    Shanghai Metals Exchange Reduces Silver Margins

    This is going to be interesting.

  188. @BBL

    The leverage at AVA.FX has costed me lately. My Oanda is only 28.5x leverage and that is where all my profits are.

    I like avafx and all the options but leverage makes for huge swings.

  189. Looks like we'll end pretty flat for the week. Higher low and higher high today, but I await better TA reading than that. A good week to be patient, but being patient is not easy, especially when the blog went down.

    Enjoy the weekend, all. Day is done. 35.32 close for July silver; 1494.20 for June gold.

  190. @ewc58

    I would caution any of you to not start swallowing handfuls of potassium iodide pills based on what you read on a blog. Not in this hemisphere at least, yet.

    It is good to be prepared and have such things, but don't take them until there is a need. A little iodine in the diet is a good thing though, many people do not get enough.

    I happen to have a Geiger counter, and have been checking for any rise in the very low background radiation levels in my area. The first thing I did when the disaster happened was to establish a baseline, and there has been no discernible increase above the normal several random clicks per minute. I am in Texas, so I can't speak for Hawaii or the West coast, but I suspect at this point it is hard to detect any increase. I will keep checking though!

  191. Turd, $20 seems like a fair admission price. Hell, there are a lot of things a guy could blow $20 on and not get near as much value as is offered here. I'm ok with a $20 troll deterrence fee.

  192. @Alex

    China is just one, simple example, as I said.

    The point is, the US is the world's biggest consumer, and has the biggest trade deficits.

    One of the main reasons every CB holds USD as reserves is because they don't have much choice.

    If everyone tried to sell their USD for something else, be it paper or real, what would happen?

    Of course the USD would be driven down, and as it dropped manufacturing would become wildly profitable in the US again, wouldn't you say?

    Do you really think the USD can fall to say 1 cent vs the Euro and Boeing won't drive Airbus out of business?

    Will 737's really sell for a few thousand euros or an oz of gold?

    Some already argue the US is rapidly becoming the cheap place to manufacture. The dollar does not need to fall much more before it is clearly going to be ultra competitive, even with the chinese (who also steal any technology shown to them, providing further impetus to avoid sending work there).

    These people predicting the USD will be worthless are guilty of extreme hyperbole, and even complete lack of foresight, to say the least.

    They completely ignore the other side of the coin, that devaluation brings back jobs to the USA, which is why BB is trying so hard to devalue without openly admitting it.

    This hyperbole reminds me of the peak oil guys who seem to think that oil will suddenly disappear one day, and we will not have spent one cent over the next 50 years finding new technologies or supplies, not to mention simply switching to nat gas, coal, wind, solar, etc etc etc

    Humans have proven very capable of adapting to change, at least for a million years or so, so I don't see that stopping next week.

  193. Little insider info, and take it for what it is worth. DOW will crash at least 3000pt in June.

    No I don't have a source and no I don't have a link. Just speaking with a long time broker friend....

    Just sharing a thought, use it to your advantage.

    Enjoy your weekend Turds talk to you all Sunday, enjoy your weekend