Thursday, June 9, 2011

Cartel Cap at $1550 Still In Place

All in all, a very good day for the PMs today.

It is clear to everyone but Ray Charles that The Cartel is making a concerted effort at keeping gold under $1550. Take a look at this weekly chart:
The question is, why?
To me. it's quite clear now. Although overt quantitative easing will eventually continue, The Fed is making every effort to convince the world that it won't. If/when gold closes above 1550, it will quickly move toward a new all-time closing high above $1558. Pretty tough to SPIN a brand new all-time high in gold as somehow indicative of coming austerity and Fed hawkishness.

Silver, though still pennant-bound, is also looking pretty good in the short term. As I type, it is trading in the Globex at 37.54, just 0.08 off of its high. The longer it can stay above 37.50 this afternoon and evening, the greater the chances that silver will jump toward 38.40-50 tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed.

I think you could tell that ole Turd was getting a little nervous yesterday but things are looking quite a bit better today. Let's see what tomorrow brings but, right now, it looks like we'll close out the week on an up note.

TF

p.s. Would someone please sign up to follow TF Metals at Twitter. I'm stuck on 666 followers and its making me a bit uncomfortable...

141 comments:

  1. Man it feels like Friday...

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  2. twitter is the best way to know the moment you publish these!

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  3. Maybe gold can't break 1550$ because it is not valued more by most.

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  4. @SB - following up from last thread... duh, I see it now...

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  5. Twitter is a great way to know a lot of things!

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  6. Well I am going to cap this day off as a Yawn, and a nice move too get the shorts out of position...Nothing more really as this day lacked anything rosy.

    And volume.....what volume.

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  7. MrMiyagi, you really need to include emoticons or other tags to indicate your sarcasm -- else do a lot more reading of past Turd posts and linked materials...

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  8. @turd
    you have 675 followers on Twitter

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  9. TF,
    I think the numbers in your name are wrong, unless your middle name has 6 letters and we add them to the 12 letters you already have and divide by three. Then we if your head starts turning around when silver hits $50, we'll no we got are guy. LOL

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  10. TF, asked on last thread, still very curious about how the PM's have been acting these past few days... Could our assumption that no QE3 (or, more accurately, noise about no QE3) will cause PM's to fall with the market be off? Flight-to-safety factor being overlooked mebbe?

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  11. seems odd that the market,dollar ,silver,and gold all advance at the same time......

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  12. I'm wondering if I change my avatar to this if you will read my comment in the voice of the professor from futurama in your head? I'm already a twitter fan Turd!

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  13. Some weird shit going on.

    Anyone see the ZH post about the nat gas manipulation last night? They managed to flash crash it 8% at one point.

    I was short NG via HND (2x bear NG etf on TSX) so it would have been nice to have that happen during TSX hours...

    Instead I decided to bail today at a small profit, as once again I have no idea what is going on in that market. Might be my first profitable NG trade ever.

    Someone else mentioned weird options activity on JPM...look at the aug $38 puts and $43 calls...20,000 plus contracts.

    I don't have enough info to figure out who's buying and who's selling, but clearly someone expects big moves in the next 2 months.

    I'm going to continue to stay flat as possible overnight, I think we'll see firewroks soon, just no idea what kind.

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  14. @sockeye1

    Thanks for the kind words! I guess I do have a few trading scars, and I find the more I learn the more cautious I get. I miss out on some of the wild gains (was thinking about buying GPL yesterday...sigh). There were a lot of newbys like me last fall who were playing options, and a lot of them are no longer here.

    Just trying to internalize investing rule #4 "Be patient and wait for the fat pitch". But boy, does that trading money burn a hole in my pocket.

    Maybe tomorrow we will get a Blythe prostate exam and we can both dive in for a good runup. (is that mixed metaphors or what?)

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  15. CD,
    No sarcasm here, just saying that maybe that's all gold is worth in the eyes of many.

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  16. At this time anyway, not talking about 4 months down the line.

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  17. Wow silver stuck the close. That was pretty impressive.

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  18. I am signed up on the twitter!

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  19. Spot on Turd. dead head fed central bankster fraudster black magic illusionists actually believe they're fooling smart folks. Whomever doesn't know gold is taking it's place as the real reserve currency of the world? Need get ready to bendover soon. The paper ponzi house will burn to ashes and you better have an economic fire proof stash of REAL MONETARY STORES OF VALUE, or you burn also.. If it burns it isn't money! Physical Gold/silver for money and food, guns, ammo, & durables for barter. .22 rounds are one of the best stashes of ammo to have for barter. Everyone has access to a .22! I bought quantities when they were available at under 10 bucks for 550 rounds. Did lot'uv ammo for guns when I cashed out my 401K and started buying silver eagles 3 & 1/2 years ago. Try buying 550@ under 10 bucks now of .22. 308/7.62& 223/5.56 have doubled if not tripled as we need get those nato rounds to the war effort. Glad I stocked up and saw this cluster flock coming years ago. You don't think guns & ammo will be needed? 100% possession will be the law among the lawless bankster gangsters. Better go back & read your ancient books which some call fairy tales and see how the blood flows the last days. Those who beat their guns into plow shares will become slaves for those who don't!

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  20. @humahuaca

    i have a feeling if volume is low this summer and stocks have little bid, we will see a lot of "glitches" as the underlying programs running the markets are revealed. that nat gas thing looks like a gamma scalping algo gone wild

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  21. yeah patience is hard for me too - I know you can't really catch the exact bottoms or tops, but every time I don't I feel like I am missing out.

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  22. i fell asleep after 10 am, what did i miss? i woke up to over 6% in first majestic and ANV disappointing...

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  23. Sensei Turd, I am #700. Thank you for all your generosity.

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  24. @Afrum

    Your AWESOME love your posts - don't stop!

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  25. @Kurt

    Yeah, I was kicking myself for not buying GPL yesterday, but then I looked at the YTD chart on it and some of the other miners, and none of them looked like they have bottomed (at least to my poor eyes)... little spikes up, but the trend is down and down.... so "that great GPL buy" could have easily been "WTF was I thinking buying that POS". Bull markets are easy to trade, and boy will I clean up on the next one, but right now it's small gains on small trades, and set a few long term positions that I keep my itchy trading fingers off of.

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  26. Hey Turd, I'm pretty sure that Ray Charles is dead.

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  27. Sorry, Turd, I don't tweet, I don't twit, I don't bleet, I don't blit.... but I have been known to rumble in the jungle... ;-)

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  28. @C F

    Hence, the not being able to read the chart.... ;-)

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  29. Its all a trade in this rangebound time period. Until the Fed makes a move its chop shop time.

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  30. Kiwi - I think it was more about the fact that he was blind....but hey, Stevie Wonder is still alive.

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  31. Turd said...

    "Silver, though still pennant-bound, is also looking pretty good in the short term. As I type, it is trading in the Globex at 37.54, just 0.08 off of its high. The longer it can stay above 37.50 this afternoon and evening, the greater the chances that silver will jump toward 38.40-50 tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed."

    Okay, tired of sitting on the sidelines. Got a trip to Colorado later this month for my son's wedding - would be nice to pick up a little fiat spending money.

    So, what to do:

    A. Put in a lowball bid hoping to pick up a dip overnight (maybe 37.30)

    B. Place a buy stop (maybe around 37.80) looking for a breakout trade.

    C. Stay on the sidelines.

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  32. oh snap

    goldman sachs finally got screwed:

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/goldman-fined-10-million-over-trading-huddles/?hpw

    they got fined 10 million dollars for cheating! wow that kind of fine is gonna totally destroy them. oh wait, did i read that correctly...10 million!!!!! what the shit is that? that's like a $1 fine for most of us. stay away from 85 broad tonight, douchebag party about to go down

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  33. @ sp

    I think a low volume summer is a sure thing don't you?

    So yeah, I think you are exactly right, we should see some exposed algos.

    Personally I love the volatility, as I tend to be contrarian and try to take advantage of extremes, and I rarely use stops.

    My question is, if/when I get filled on a stink bid 8% away from the 'real' market, are the bastards gonna cancel the trade on me?

    I think the end to all the bullshit would be to just make all trades stick, error or not.

    It will never happen of course.

    To protect myself I never, ever use a pure market order, even if it's a liquid stock. If I want to buy MSFT at the current market price of 23.95, I'll put in a limit buy at 24.10 or something like that.

    I honestly believe we can beat the machines, as long as the exchanges don't screw us by not honouring trades when the algos f up.

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  34. @C F

    I'll agree with you... so what Turd was saying you'd have to be blind AND dead to not understand the chart. Stevie Wonder would get it just fine... unless he's dead too, and then the "blind/dead" clause would kick in.

    I think I'm creeping myself out.

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  35. Yes, I know Ray is dead. He was just the first blind guy that came to mind.
    Dead and blind, however, is a bad combo, that's for sure.

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  36. @Turd - especially for your Ray!

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  37. New "LOVE" mail from CME:
    -------------------------------QUOTE--------------------------
    Expansion of Listings for COMEX Silver Options
    Effective Sunday, June 19 (trade date Monday, June 20), CME Group will expand the listing schedule for Silver options (tag 1151-SecruityGroups=SO) for trading on CME Globex as follows:

    Strike prices for the first three maturities will be at an interval of $.05 and an additional ten strike prices will be listed at $.25 increments above and below the highest and lowest five-cent increment, beginning with the strike price evenly divisible by $.25.
    All other trading maturities, strike prices are set at an interval of $.05 if the underlying futures price is less than $25.00 per troy ounce. If the underlying futures price is greater than $25.00 per troy ounce, strike prices are set at an interval of $.10 for the ± 20 ATM.
    An additional 10 strike prices will be listed at $.25 increments above the highest $.10 increment and an additional ten strike prices will be listed at $.25 increments below the lowest $.10 increment, beginning with the first available strike that is evenly divisible by $.25.
    These contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of COMEX.

    The expanded strike price listings are currently available for customer testing in New Release.
    -------------------------------QUOTE--------------------------

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  38. Good article from Santa on Oil.

    http://www.jsmineset.com/

    Dr. Philip Verleger’s knowledge of the oil industry is, in our opinion, second to none. We had seen the announcement and e-mailed Philip on Sunday and we both agreed that the Saudis “were up to something.............

    word Ver "teter" The world is tetering on the brink of financial collapse

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  39. One thing I am trying to do is hold onto a longer future position like Sept/Oct and then range trade the short term future. It is working Ok for me so far.

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  40. Oh I wanted to ask again if anyone here prefers futures to say options. Options have less downside risk, but you pay a large premium for that which futures can translate into profit instead, and you don't have to worry about them expiring worthless either. I just find the premiums too high when I look, it always seems better to get the future to me - this assumes you have the margin capital to do so.

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  41. Turd,
    For reasons perhaps not easily apparent, your HUI Pukey post was in many ways your best post in weeks....so OK, I'll sign up for the twitter following.

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  42. Been off doing other stuff. Some folks brought up my trading strategy in the last comment string, I'll elaborate.

    When I was actively trading, I was using RSI 5min 20/70 during low volume hours and 30/60 during high volume for buy/sell targets. If the larger trend (and time of day) was down, I'd have a bias towards shorting and the reverse if the the trend was up. No matter what my net position was, I'd take full advantage at those points. If it was a waterfall, I'd make several trade points and then unload the same way back up. This typically resulted in full position turnover at least twice a day, so I was making good money while the daily market would open and close with only a small change 1-1.5%. We remember those days, right? That worked pretty well in the bull March/April, and even May and has kind of sucked in June.

    After enough failed trades I switched to my present "light" hedge short against my core long. I'm net long, but only 66%. Not trading it until a trend emerges.

    I've no doubt that we're going to have a great late summer-early winter run up again this year, but I can't tell where we'll be in the next month. So that's the hedge. It stops out negative if we explode up at any point (hello QE3 or public peak oil news!) and otherwise pays me to the down on waterfalls. I keep refreshing it, closing on dips and resetting on peaks. Closed yesterday at 36.25, put it back on this morning at 37. Again, not meant to be a winner, just some coverage for the season.

    If you've read this far - you need to spend more time with your family :)

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  43. Hello Turd,

    Just Fed ya...you are a very funny guy!

    p.s. Would someone please sign up to follow TF Metals at Twitter. I'm stuck on 666 followers and its making me a bit uncomfortable...

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  44. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  45. Hey Turd, what's your guess for mid/late june Silver at the moment? Are you still optimistic that we could hit a top at around $42-43?

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  46. Kurt yes the futures options are pretty expensive. Its the volatility that makes them so expensive. I like your idea of doing futures farther out as the core and then trading the front months. Was it you a few days ago that suggested bloggin out just general info about daily trades you do? I would read it:) I've started writing mine down, but mainly for my own reference just today.
    I'm thinking it will be an easy way to keep a log.

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  47. Huma, I noticed those JPM trades too.

    Financials, S&P, Emering markets, Technology stocks -- all to get raped this coming month.

    They already have for the most part, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them go up for 2-3 days, even a week. I'm hoping they go up as much as possible, as I am waiting to short heavy.

    I bought CAD around 1.02 and sold around 1.027.. For some reason I think crude oil will take CAD higher now. Hopefully that news tomorrow drops it heavy and we can get in cheap.

    CK

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  48. The videos mentioned by sockeye are done by Bill Still. They have some valid points (like abolishing FRB), and I liked them for some historical facts, but careful:
    1) this guy "misses" some important historical facts like the coinage act of 1792, and doesn't talk at all about the great prosperity brought about by the classical gold standard prior to 1913.
    2) he is a leftist that believes in a "trustable" central bank and fiat money (!?!?@!?).
    3) he hates gold! (his reasons against the gold standard are ridiculous, like "gold his held only by the bankers", etc...).

    For a better explanation than mine about this shaddy character see Edward G. Griffin (IMO he is a gentleman and a sage), here:
    http://www.freedom-force.org/freedomcontent.cfm?fuseaction=meetstill&refpage=issues

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  49. There's a couple other things which to me point to a "not-bear" market for PMs and commodities.

    1) PA and PL. Palladium in particular is on a scream and holding very well. They have both been hugging the top of the BB for a while now. A single PA contract would have netted almost $10k over the last month.

    2) Per the silver COT, the net position of the commercials has not been this high since 2009. The net position is negative, but much more positive than any time in 2010. To me, this is very bullish. Gold, platinum and palladium are OK, but not fantastic.

    3) Gold is STILL holding up pretty well.

    There are other things, of course, but these are already mentioned often on this blog. I'm mentioning points here that I haven't seen posted yet.

    I would expect point #1 and #3 at least to fail before the market looks bearish to me.

    Still, I'm on the sidelines waiting for now.

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  50. Hoping natural gas drops to 4.5, preferrably 4.3-4.2. Have my doubts on it going lower than 4.5 tho.

    Still think natural gas, rice, sugar will be 3 of the best plays this year. Silver will eventually kill it as well.

    Pretty sure Cocoa, Coffee and Cotton have all bottomed. Beef probably did too. Waiting on Wheat for some more confirmation.

    Nothing's more profitable than going long at the bottom :)

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  51. Ira's back on the silver bull, fwiw...

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  52. @uptofreedom
    Ira's analysis sounds good to me, note the cautionary about bullishness being non-seasonal. That's his hedge that the move may not stick. Still kind of my feeling too. Not enough to go heavy in either direction though and I'm fine to cover my 37 short around 36.5 if the next down move looks like it lacks steam. I may just even flip it to a small long there too...we'll see :)

    Wouldn't it be nice if 36 turns out to be the bottom of these long weeks of misery?

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  53. SilverBleve - Yes, that was me. Let me get started with Gold:

    Date(Sold) Qnty. Month Year Contract Price(Close) Price(Open) Enter Date Profit
    5/31/2011 1 JUN 2011 CMX GOLD $1,539.10 $1,492.70 5/13/2011 $4,640.00
    6/6/2011 1 JUL 2011 CMX GOLD $1,550.00 $1,538.00 5/31/2011 $1,200.00
    5/11/2011 1 JUN 2011 CMX GOLD $1,519.10 $1,430.00 3/25/2011 $8,910.00
    $14,750.00

    let me see if that pasted in right.

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  54. not quite but close - anyway - nice gold!

    Current positions:
    July Gold = $1538.1 - right now $1545.6 = $750
    Sept Gold = $1496.5 - right now $1547.4 = $5,090

    So my plan remains - sell gold at $1550 or so and buy back on dip. Hold Sept for any breakout.

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  55. @ampmfix

    Thanks for the link!
    A thought about national Gold standard...

    Gold in reality should be the world reserve currency as all nations have some. But since no one nation can control what other nations do with Gold (and since we are well aware that perceptual and real manipulations of supply and demand are possible even before the COMEX) How safe is a Gold only standard as a national currency viable...??

    I don't know the answer - but there must be one, thanks

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  56. Oh wait - in the interest of disclosure lop off $2,500 for the day I bought a bunch of options on gold that expired the same day. Very stupid, so that was ($2,500)

    So net mark to market on Gold = $18,090

    see, doing something stupid seems less terrible that way

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  57. Fed has to do qe3 cuz raising interest rates to attract buyers makes debt service outrageous. They will let things run down until everyone is crying for injection and the tit suckers are screaming for assistance payments to make it politically palatable. It's all a dog and pony show.

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  58. Tesla - read FOFOA blogspot (if you have a strong mind and a LOT of time - it is very deep and well written) for all you need to know about gold standard - it was years I never understood how it could work until I thoroughly got what FOFOA says.

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  59. Kurt, what exchange are your gold contracts on?

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  60. sure would, Pailin. Would confirm Trud's #2. Did lighten up today, but might not pull the remaining two bullets out as soon as I was thinking...

    Btw, I noticed the "non-seasonal" hedge, too. He seemed suprised by today's pop and sounded like he didn't fully trust it.

    Mebbe atlee can comment, but it could be that he's a pure technician and lacks the "the end of the keynesian experiment is upon us" outlook most of us here in Turdville share, so is oblivious to the flight-to-safety factor?

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  61. Copper has been my kryptonite but I started there so without it I may not have tried my hand at other futures. Bought right at the peak! Here she is (reformatted to fit better) - hell blogger sucks - took out type but these are copper:


    Open Close Net
    JUL 05/26/11 $409 05/27/11 $418 $2,250
    JUL 06/01/11 $410 06/03/11 $413 $763
    APR 02/14/11 $461 04/26/11 $432 $(7,188)
    JUL 04/27/11 $425 05/09/11 $400 $(6,250)
    JUL 06/08/11 $408 06/08/11 $409 $325
    $(10,100)

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  62. these are Comex Gold (it does say, right? CMX) - or is that not an answer? I can trade 24x7.

    anyone know how to post better using this messy blogger?

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  63. you can see with copper being rangebound I am going in small bits trying to eke some profits from low 400's and selling at - hoping for 10 points but been scared off early lately.

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  64. No current position in copper. Thinking of putting in a bid for a dip buy in low 400 range.

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  65. Silver:


    JUL CMX SILVER 03/09/11 $3,622 03/09/11 $3,609 $(625)
    MAY CMX SILVER 03/25/11 $3,712 04/25/11 $4,750 $51,900
    JUL CMX SILVER 04/26/11 $4,494 05/04/11 $3,900 $(29,700)
    JUL CMX SILVER 05/05/11 $3,539 05/11/11 $3,883 $17,175
    JUL CMX SILVER 05/16/11 $3,496 05/27/11 $3,750 $12,700
    JUL CMX SILVER 05/31/11 $3,850 06/06/11 $3,700 $(7,500)
    $43,950

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  66. OK enough of the Gold Standard bullshit.....you guys seriously need to spend a little time and look at the history of the "gold standard". I'll be brief. Gold is real money....but it has been throughout its history MANIPULATED when used as a reserve or as a "standard". You will NEVER outsmart the banksters. We will always have fiat and we will always have a fractional reserve system to steal your money. If gold is the standard then they WILL leverage it and destroy over time whatever fiat it underlies. Good luck if you think a "gold standard" will bring back integrity. They could care less. Look at Greenspan's early treatise on this subject. He LOVED gold....hehhehehe. HE LOVED ANN Raynd.... As long as they control the money they control you. THEY will always control the money.

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  67. see that first trade? she was a margin call since I didn't know what I was doing and the margin amounts are not easy to find. They still are confusing but I now keep a big pad underneath. I do soon want to take some off the table to re-invest in some more physical.

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  68. On top I have a small closed position from last night (it doesn't show yet where I got that table from) of $2,000 - so net silver has earned me $45,950. Nice, pretty silver lady. However I closed that too soon after getting beat so many days and TF talking the range he was (low 30s to high 30s) it looked like a downcycle was coming.

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  69. and on that note...

    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/06/handling-of-economic-crisis-may-lead-to.html

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  70. I'm trading the CMX August Gold, which is the current active month's contract. July has pretty small open interest, and I don't even see Sept on Bloomberg. This might magnify the moves with wide bid/asks, but sounds like you're hitting the cover off the ball, so go to it!

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  71. Kilguy - that is why freegold works. It is not tied to any fiat money. Gold acts as the standard of savings, and fiat stays in its fiat realm where it can't do as much damage since it will no longer be a reserve currency. Reserves will now be physical gold only. Read FOFOA - it takes a LOT of explaining and I cannot do it on a post, if at all.

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  72. DE hang on I didn't look closely at the current ones:

    GCN11 - so yes it is July, which should have a last trading day in June. I actually see now trading is light - why is that? Still seems to tick fairly often enough.

    GCV11 - It is an October gold - my bad there is no September.

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  73. maybe I should get out of the July gold. I really am a beginner here - there are subtleties to which months are forward vs. other months and when you commit that I am just beginning to understand.

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  74. @Kilguy

    Pretty much my point - the real enemy IS private banking system using fractional currency reserve system mandaterd by any private central bank - the boom and bust cycles are then easily manipulated by these crook bangsters. With the ability to strip the 'working class' of their assets using this system they will. Said differently - it doesn't matter what backs the money as long as those pricks control the supply we are ultimately screwed.

    Right?

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  75. Left out this: Decent hard working people lose. Get prepared folks this ain't gonna be fun.

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  76. Turd - no matter what happens in the coming years - no matter how right or how wrong you might end up being you will always be the funniest guy in the PM market. Don't change a thing.

    Dead and blind... LMAO!!!!

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  77. @Tesla

    If cycles are so easily manipulated, then why are we in the crisis that we are in?

    All their manipulations accomplish is to delay dealing with the inevitable. As time passes They do get better and better at putting the inevitable off, but sooner or later the market will return to equilibrium and the piper will be paid.

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  78. @Tesla, you're welcome, I had written a longer post but it got lost somehow...

    @kliguy, what do you think is the long term outcome for gold?

    @kurt, isn't freegold what we have now, except for the massive revaluation of gold?

    According to FOFOA, there are 160T$ in financial assets ww, and around 7.7T$ in gold ww, and at some point the 160T will rush to gold so gold will revaluate by x20 so 30k$/oz, or so, does this make sense to you?

    Thanks all.

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  79. Freegold won't happen until the current fiat regime collapses. Then it is (I hope I/FOFOA am right) inevitable.

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  80. @ampmfix:

    So THATS what FOFOA has been trying to tell us with such large blog entries!

    Best description ever ampmfix!!!

    Thank you!

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  81. @uptofreedom

    I believe the current crisis was intentional and by design

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  82. Just bought a little gold at 1543. No special reason, just looking ok there, targeting 1549. If it's moving strong up near there, I'll put a trailing stop underneath instead and let it run. Or we'll see 1515 tomorrow :)

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  83. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  84. @Tesla
    The basic rule of thumb is bankers get paid on volatility, they play the middleman taking % from both sides (buyers and sellers). The only thing more volatile than a worldwide financial crisis is a world war. It may not be coincidence that the latter generally follows the former :)

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  85. I have some other positions too:

    (Sept) Corn I closed out making $650 - I don't feel I know enough to trade these but would love to hear some advice from Art and DE.

    (Nov) Beef I still have at roughly neutral with a slight negative bias. Looking - have no idea what made me buy November. Looks like another thinly traded one.

    I also have the following trades I finished:


    SEP IMM J-YEN 04/28/11 $123 05/27/11 $124 $1,213
    JUN NY CRUDE 05/11/11 $99 05/18/11 $100 $390
    JUL NY CRUDE 06/07/11 $98 06/08/11 $100 $2,480
    SEP US$ INDEX 06/07/11 $74 05/27/11 $75 $1,455

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  86. ...and I have a long Sept crude @99.69 basis now at $102.70 for a $3010 gain.

    PLUS I just shorted the POSX again today and it is roughly neutral still. I shorted the Sept. since the current month is almost done for. Again these confuse me as to when you have to "commit" and all that nonsense. I can't see how June is still trading then. Same with indexes I want to short them soon but can't find a month that appears active that is not almost expired.

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  87. silverbleve you know I do post at an Objectivist site and they have threads like that - it works well - I think with a real site not blogger I can do that. I don't really have time for a blog even though for now I am posting a lot here. A new site will solve this I think.

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  88. Just up at ZH. No wonder the banksters had lame duck senator Herb Kohl introduce legislation that will limit the control you have over your own hard earned retirement monies. Only for your own financial safety mind you.

    Never spend another dime in Kohl's Department Stores. Tell your friends.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/record-number-people-have-taken-out-loan-out-against-their-401k

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  89. I found my company's site at www.orionfutures.com has Ok charts. It also appears they only post the futures that have some volume. So I will use this as a guide as to what to buy. I have a very poor web-based freebie trading system. I think now that I made some profits I will buy a platform. Anyone have any advice on which ones to use?

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  90. @Pailin
    I'm no optimist in that regard! ww3 is an eventual certainty IMHO

    Like I've said before IMO the ultra wealthy behind the worlds central banks are or might as well be the Beast of Revelations (singular) and the central banks controlling the currencies and governments (including fiat, gold and silver) are the heads of that beast. They have been screwing us for centuries while accumulating real assets and building their world domination / one world government.

    To each his own - but that's central to my beliefs

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  91. Thanks Kurt, I was missing that condition (I must be stupid...).

    You are welcome Raul, as an engineer I like things simple and clear, I get lost in the wordiness, after reading FOFOA for months he finally explained what I copied in my previous post, finally some hard numbers! but he always talks about 55k$-60k$, I still don't know where he gets the x2 factor from 30k...

    word verif: bratum, noise of the fiat collapse...

    Cheers!

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  92. looks like tokyo and sydney want their silver, go silver go!

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  93. what is turds twitter account named these alot of turd fergasons

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  94. next stop 38.50? It seems that is where a lot of people are getting off the train for a while. Is the consensus here that we are in the doldrums right now, or will they set in after July contract expires? If so the Indian wedding rally starts in August, that's a pretty short window, maybe the doldrums are just getting shorter in duration.

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  95. ferGuson not fergAson i found it thanks never mind

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  96. I just don't know with silver. I like the rally but I am not going to buy here I think it is going to get knocked down again.

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  97. Hello all, went to the bank today to wire tulving some money. That always feels good. Not better than the delivery though.

    Anyway, everyone knows I think we go higher. B efore we do, I think there is a decent possibility of a raid and go in gold. Shakeout and go, whatever you want to call it. I say gold because that's what I mainly trade. I don't think it's a sure thing but if it happens, I'm expecting a spike down to the low 1530s to clear out the stops.

    The 200MA on the 2 hr chart is 1531, the bottom BB on the 2 hr chart is 1532, and the most recent low is 1531.80. This may be similiar to what happened on 5/20 at 9AM ET. That king of shakeout. We have been grinding around for a while and I'm sure many longs have thrown in the towel just to have JPM catch them, so I don't think we "need" the spike to get going. I have seen it many times in so many markets though (metals, stocks, currencies, etc). Look no further than the shakeout in the dollar before it fired just this morning. Also I feel terrible for the NGD holder yesterday (can't remember his handle), NGD hovered over the 200 day for a long time, then spiked down through it and five minutes later it was firing like it jumped off a trampoline. Countless NGD stops were triggered and shares "stolen".

    I doesn't have to happen but it may. Just a heads up to watch those stops.

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  98. all this bearishness, caution, shorting and hesitation to commit to long positions is great news for silver bulls

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  99. i haven't traded anything in a few days seriously. only thing worth doing is income theta positive trade. but for that u have to watch all the time. not wasting my time till summer is through unless something better pops up.

    @huma & all

    r u guys realizing what this whole nat gas thing means? i think it is a HIGHLY critical piece of info.

    1- i will never get into any short-term trade lasting less than a day (yea right i'll violate that this week prob but still). basically with these algos u have no chance, this is the first time i've seen such a vicious virus up close.

    2- i will not use real stop-losses anymore (except for options and futures). this algo was lifting peoples bids rocketing up grabbing the ask and ping ponging back and forth. after it broke through most of the adjacent bids on the downside, it tore through the stop losses and shot down. must be the work of programmer with an evil sense of humor!!!!

    btw, i don't know what u guys are talking about "WW3", afaik that started on 9/11/01. ok granted it is not the same type as WWI and WWII but that is b/c the world we live in is different. those types of wars are over i think (they were geographic b/c planet was truly separated geographically, now it is not). i can't say this for 100% but in 50 yrs this will prob be described in history as WWIII!!! (& financial crisis as a result)

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  100. kliguy38 said...
    "We will always have fiat and we will always have a fractional reserve system to steal your money. If gold is the standard then they WILL leverage it and destroy over time whatever fiat it underlies."

    While I enjoy immensely your superb analysis and commentary most of the time, I beg to differ with the above comments.

    The fundamental issue here is power. Money is power and the kind of power that can and has purchased political power. If you want to defeat the bankers, then a free people must come en masse to understand that any form of concentrated power is inimical to the interest that free people anywhere and has been at every point in mankind's history. This is the axiom, premise, or foundational prerequisite to a just political or monetary system. The idea is to keep the power spread amongst the people, broken into the smallest units possible, whether it be monetary, political, or the power of knowledge. It has always been the concentration of power that has led to the dissolution, destruction, and deterioration of all civilizations; their rise and fall. Until mankind grasp this concept on a broad scale we will never defeat the bankers, the elites, or their correlative political henchmen. So when forming a government, the people must make as their first principal the absolute necessity of preventing the concentration of any kind of power and/or monopolies of any kind or form.

    When anything is legally permitted to act or function as money, as is every individuals contractual right, you have made it virtually impossible for any kind of monopoly or concentration of power. Under such circumstances, then almost anything can act as money, the only caveat being that the contractual fiduciary relationship be honest and involve no fraud or deceit. Formally and legally in such a system you might have competing forms of money in the form of any kind of metal that has value. Gold, silver, platinum, copper, nickel,palladium, whatever could be used as money. Also, warehouse receipts,coupons, tokens, bills of credit, all have been used as money in the past. So, the simple principle is, as in the division of labor, let there be a free division of monetary power in whatever form people may contractually care to establish. If people have control of their political system they can easily outlaw any form of fractional reserve systems, such as the Comex, SLV, The FED, Gld, or any form of hidden secretive non transparent market such as derivatives. The key is knowledge the ultimate form of power, and that power being fully divested with every member of a body politic. We can form such a society now that we have the internet.

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  101. @ragedmaximus:

    it is @TFMetals

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  102. nah I wouldn't buy here either but I did buy at 36.60 and I'm staying long. Last time we broke 37.50 it ran right to 38.80 before meeting resistance, of course it might have found real resistance at 38.50 and just overshot, it was followed by a beatdown of course (shaking fist at sky)

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  103. @level

    basic 101 trading rule is to NEVER put ur stop adjacent to the real support. those u can kiss goodbye.

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  104. @sp

    I agree. My long story made short: "If anyone has stops in the low 1530s, be careful".

    Also, "king" should be "kind" in the post.

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  105. Remember for five thousands years both GOLD and SILVER have been the most preferred from of money. Both have been debauched when the power has been concentrated in the hands of a few, as in the Caesars of the Roman Empire.

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  106. LH do you think we hit that gold down tonight/tomorrow?

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  107. @ kasscoos (or CK? that's easier to remember)

    Long CAD at 1.02 has been brilliant, and I sure hope we get a bad employment number tomorrow to be able to load up again.

    If it's really bad, and oil and the s&p also happen to dip maybe we'll break below 1.02 finally?

    Anyway, after the 'adjustment', it will be back to buying CAD on dips, whatever the new range is.

    OIL: Yeah, I am going back and forth on this one. Frankly, with the horrible stats out last week, and the saudis talking oil down, we're still above $100, so it really makes me wonder.

    That seems pretty bullish in retrospect.

    Either we are going to see some kind of delayed reaction and finally oil will test the downside, like $90 or so, OR, it really is bid and we'll see $110 very soon, and CAD at 1.05 again.

    I get the long term oil supply problem, but thats a problem for 10, 20 , 50 years from now, not this week, that's what makes me hesitant to buy in now.

    If the US economy really sucks, as it seems to, and China really is a bubble, then oil is going to crash, and I could see $65 even, or $55.

    But maybe we are in a slow recovery, or the QE2 effects are time delayed 18 months, and soon inflation is going to hit and we see $150 oil in 6 months.

    So there's my range, somewhere between $55 and $155, lol.

    Well I continue to be proudly unmarried to any position until some of this confusion is cleared.

    If I see any signs of US economic recovery, I'll be the first to jump on the oil bandwagon, as it will vastly outperform CAD.

    Holding my breath 'til 7 am tomorrow.

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  108. Ben.Roberts13
    Well said - very well said, agree 100%

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  109. @kurt

    I'm not sure if we even will, but about 2AM ET always seems like a good time for some stop triggering ounce stealing in these markets.

    If you have a low cost basis or you aren't heavily leveraged I wouldn't worry about it too much. I move a fair number of contracts so the possibility is important to me.

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  110. @ sp

    I agree with you, this is the first time I saw some algo manipulation that made me think I better get the hell out of the way.

    For now I am going to stick to what I know best, FX, as currencies can only be pushed so far, unlike NG or any particular stock, or even the index.

    If you are vigilant and patient, you are bound to get some real opportunities though.

    Like you I know I can't stay away from the game completely. Even when I lose I still would rather do this than lie on the beach.

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  111. Was wondering if it might be used to my benefit to get in another buy. I do notice these early morning (for me) spikes that seem to happen.

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  112. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  113. You're sounding more like trader dan these days turd.

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  114. This photo has made the rounds before, but I wanted to pass it on as I got it in my email today.

    http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4145/5129561767_2dab77c718_b.jpg

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  115. here is the video http://www.everydaynodaysoff.com/2010/09/30/cnn-on-chappell-hill-bank-concealed-carry-supported-and-encouraged/

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  116. Is it just me or is XAG/USD behaving like it used to. It just "feels" like it is doing that slow crawl upwards again. To be safe I'll just keep more weight in other FX pairs.

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  117. andres,
    agree with that. I'm seeing less opportunities to buy the sudden 30-50c price drops that had become common during Asian trading hours over the last month or so.

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  118. Kurt- Stupid newbie question so please don't flame me BUT are you trading options or futures on the comex as far as gold and silver?? I think I know but don't want to look like more of an idiot than I already look if I am wrong.

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  119. Freegold is basically BankerGold. The guy advocates FreeGold - FOA - is a central banker as many figured. It's simply a different kinda FIAT central government control - the same old thing never works and always collapses at the end. With all due respects it's always people that don't understand economy very well believing in this kinda banker controls.

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  120. Sean at SGT Report put up a good 3 part interview of G. Edward Griffin earlier. The discussion is about the increasing pace of govenmental & financial tyranny and the need for us to recapture the system. If you're buying phyzz, you're already pitching in.

    http://sgtreport.com/2011/06/g-edward-griffin-a-sgt-doc-style-interview/

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  121. terri I am trading comex futures - full contracts

    RUI - you could not be more wrong

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  122. Huma, I know oil will go up to $150-$200, not because there's not enough oil, there is tons of oil.

    The bankers that runs this country knows there's 2 trillion barrels under the rocky mountains alone. There's also tons in Alaska, Montana, North Dakota.. so many places.

    The bottom line is they don't want to drill in the US until the price of oil is $150-200 .. it's written in stone. Inflation, along with middle east unrest/wars (Yemen, Syria, Saudi Arabia coming before end of 2012) will contribute to this huge spike.

    I am super bullish on the CAD because of this. I knew of this before 2011 and was recommending the CAD & AUD. It's nice to see we still have the CAD at lower levels. Wouldn't mind 1.02 again tho :)

    By the way, do you think there's a decent chance the number tomorrow will send CAD past 1.03? I just rebought some CAD thinking the USD will go down now for the night. @ 1.0266 after selling around there. Got some swiss francs and euros too :) Probably shoulda added some AUD/NZD as well. The dollar is nice to those currencies.

    These trades may be very short term if the USD breaks out.

    CK

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    The bankers that runs this country knows there's 2 trillion barrels under the rocky mountains alone. There's also tons in Alaska, Montana, North Dakota.. so many places.

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