Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Hoping To Be Wrong

Back on Monday, one of our astute Turdites pointed out that the $/Yen was approaching 80 and that, below there, all risk assets would come under pressure. Astute, indeed.

Under 80, it seems that nearly everyone expects the Bank of Japan to flush trillions of new yen into the market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/yen-surges-boj-intervention-watch-defcon-1
Currency traders seem to be trying to front-run this move and have thus bid up the POSX from its lows right at support of 73.51. Having now broken the 2-week downtrend, technical buying may drive Pigatha all the way back up toward 74.50 and even 75.

The dollar rally has added to what was already a rather tenuous position for gold. Take a look at the chart below. If we again use the white-out to wipeout the blowoff from early May, we get a chart that made a top about five weeks ago, corrected down, moved back up and now has made an attempt at a "new high". Failing the new high, it instead has rolled over and is now pointing lower. I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we have found our range for the summer. It looks now like gold will trade between 1470 and 1550 for the foreseeable future. Do not despair, this pattern of four months UP and two months sideways has been going on for years in this bull market. This new range would just be a continuance of the pattern and it certainly is consistent with the "roadmap" I posted several weeks ago. I still believe that, by late summer, gold will finally break higher and rally toward a December high between 1700 and 1780.

On January 21 with gold at 1346, I wrote this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html
Here is the most important paragraph:


"I firmly believe that there is absolutely no reason not to expect the pattern to continue so, follow closely, as this is some pretty complicated math...
20 weeks from this Friday...assuming the lows for this correction are made this week, is 6/10/11.
19 weeks from next Friday...assuming the lows are made next week, is 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1345 puts us at $1614 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1320 puts us at $1584 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
Let's split the difference: $1600 on or before 6/10/11."




August gold actually bottomed at 1314.20 on 1/28. Adding 20% to that number gives us 1577.04. The high (so far) of the August contract came on 5/2 at 1577.70. I'd say that's pretty close. 

Again, if we are now rangebound through the summer and, sometime during the next two months, we retest the low of the range near 1465, then we get this:
1465 + 20% = $1758 December target

And I'll also give you this: The 12/31/10 close of the August contract was 1427.70. The average annual gain for gold since this bull market began back in 2001 has been around 25%.
1427.70 + 25% = $1784 December target

So, again, don't despair when you look at this chart. It is what it is.


Like gold, silver looks somewhat foul. If you're trading, you must watch that lower trendline very closely as a break of it may indicate that a move back toward 34 or even 33 is coming. I'm still hoping for 42-43 before the end of June but this, too, is beginning to look like it has found its "summer range", bounded by 33 at the low end and 39 at the high end.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't take time to thank those who defended me overnight against the continued attacks of Spalding "maradona" Smailes. As you know, I can no longer afford the time and energy it takes to tackle the trolls one by one so I appreciate the help. That said, it's probably best for everyone to simply take the same course and ignore them. Without the attention, they may just drift away.

Hang in there and have a great day! TF

p.s. For those looking for a crude chart this morning, here it is. No change you can believe in.

207 comments:

  1. Good Morning Turd

    Thank You!

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  2. Thanks Turd... must look to get out of my paper silver longs with as little damage as possible!

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  3. Turd you dont think oil strength will help the metals complex after the saudis were not able to use their pull to increase production (at least thats the headline we all know they will pump as many barrels as they can and just want to sell at higher prices so they tell the market they are not increasing production)

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  4. Jason: I HOPE they do but that's for today. This post is more concerned with the next 8-10 weeks.

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  5. Hopefully you'll have a ban feature on the new blog. Stick a boot in his ass...

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  6. your suspicions are prolly right.....this will provide a perfect exit strategy for the shorts and they can chop up the trade during consolidation/accumulation.....time is on their side.....(and ours)

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  7. Oil prices today going up for the obvious OPEC reason, but I find it interesting that Ben basically said that Japan and oil/gasoline were what constrained growth, and those things (being transitory, yeah right) will not harshly impact Q3 and Q4. As far as I can tell, oil is not going down (much less gasoline), and the reactors in Japan are still dangerous.

    Talk about damned either way. If those growth estimates are still over optimistic (like I think), and no QE3 by the end of the year, the potential tanking of some markets in the fall will be ugly. That's the one thing that really does scare me about my overexposure to metals and ag.

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  8. Silver and WTI look to be running out of breath...

    Heres hoping they're just resting...

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  9. So I guess I'm not gonna win that floppy yellow hat then - damn!
    (I'm gonna have to get out some shinny and take a treasure bath to cheer myself up)

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  10. Turd...

    There has only been one person who was right about every thing.... Don't feel like you must be 100% correct about the market.

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  11. @ tesla -
    my downside target for s & p is 1250, but i think it will overshoot. i got short @ 1295, so i've got a bit of breathing room. initiating a new short today would all depend on the $ strength. pivot point for s & p is 1283.75, so if it closes below that, you've still got plenty of room between there and 1250 to short.

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  12. @flaunt
    Sorry bout that, had a buy order at 1539 that I wanted to watch. Then I took the time to read this next post.

    Let's not lose sight of the fact that we are only 1% from the recent gold high and 2.5% from an all time high. If anyone is in gold and you are losing alot of money with gold down this little bit, maybe you shouldn't be trading.

    Also, this mornings tree shaking in gold bounced nicely off the 13 day MA. Silver is a little trickier since it took such a beat down. I suspect the strength in gold will pull up silver and not vice versa. Once it gets going though (carves through the break even longs) silver will again move faster than gold.

    I'm a true believer in Turds Bottom #2 and I believe it will hold. It seems I'm at odds with TF and his golden boy atlee with what the summer will look like. That's ok. So far this looks like a normal pullback to support in gold with silver being the typical freak show that it is. Today's finish may tell us alot.

    As a side note, I was a little dissapointed that when I get individually attacked TF doesn't scold them but when his favorites get their feelings hurt he promptly calls the offender a troll. Oh well, I still like the analysis and this blog community. No need to reply to this paragraph.

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  13. Pm's have now much more space to go down than high, POSX is the opposite, I would take care.
    Maintain liquidity

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  14. Well I for one am glad I missed the troll action :) you are referring to, I hate those fu#$sticks.

    Thanks for the post Turd!

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  15. Turd- From a TA perspective if we close above the 20dma on USO it will look to fill that gap between 42-43 which puts WTI between 103-105. I could see silver def under-performing in this period, but SLV holding the 20dma at 35.14 will be important from a short term trend as in about 3 weeks. If that fails the 125dma would be the lowest moving average slv tested on the turd bottom with it now at 33.61. That leaves downside for silver at about $2 and upside at about $6 so I feel pretty confident here and below.

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  16. It is really something how many times you have been right in PMs that we know are traded at crimex with naked fraud. The fundamentals have not changed and that is on our side long term. Silver and gold outperform all other asset classes. Keep it up Turd, we are counting on you and fuck these guys. Just look at this:

    http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/22/john-exter%E2%80%99s-inverted-pyramid-of-assets-2/

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  17. From the standpoint of phyzz accumulation, the prolonged sideways leg is welcome news.

    From the standpoint of owning miner shares for the purpose of turning paper gains into phyzz, not so much. I'd say go get some great buys but now I don't know if they so great. Keep powder dry as it seems like we could revisit some 08/09 lows in the sector.

    For the Options Team, go with Turd. Y'all should make some dough on a a few puts this summer.

    Bear in mind ONE little thing: we are the next global disaster away from a game change in PM prices. I'm mostly referring to gold. Get more.

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  18. what SPX contract are you shorting? I see a June and a September and for some reason September does not seem to be trading. Isn't June past its commit date or does that not apply to indexes?

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  19. NCOT, I have been watching WTI myself. It looks just like someone has hit a pause button doesn't it?!

    Weird, but I guess when you got brainless HFT computers doing all the trading stuff doesn't always make logical sense. They sell one day and buy it all back another, I call it "PONZI LEVITATION" :)

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  20. Looks like a long stairway down to hell at some point paper and physical wiil de-couple Loading up on ammo and beans

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  21. @Jimmy, yes, but Silvers having a proper pullback already... I'd have been happier at it stalling around the 36.60 mark!

    WTI is hanging on though...

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  22. have to say I love the Kitco 3 day chart.. look at it now, similar time yesterday, Silver had a W formation, now completing an M formation... which doesnt look good!

    I want a big V :)

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  23. I'm looking at the 100 SMA (daily) for POSX... Looking bearish to me cuz it can't get above it. Guess it all depends on the other paper midgets in the
    ugly contest. (for whatever my lame attempts at TA are worth)

    What you smarter than me guys think - LMK what think?

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  24. there are views that strong yen to buy cheap oil is good for the peak summer months without enough electricity from the nuke plants

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  25. here it comes...dollar is rallying, hopefully dow will fall off a cliff here.
    for etf shorts, tza 3x small cap usually makes the most, but it has slippage as it's mostly for day trading. but a few days it can be quite profitable.
    other shorts, sdow, sds, short dow, sh, short s & p.
    i am not shorting financials here as they are already where s & p 1250 would have them be. basically, the financials are telegraphing where the s & p is headed.

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  26. Turd,

    Not sure if you answered my question.. but for silver... the it looks like a bearish flag forming.. if so, the implications are for a drop to 29 dollars...

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  27. darn can't beat that 74.25...this is like this morning instant replay.

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  28. Colonel Presscott:
    "Don't fire till you see the whites of their eyes!"
    because he had limited ammunition and didn't want to waste it.
    I believe the Dollar will at least double bottom here. The markets as well are efficient killing machines, and wasted ammunition is not wise.

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  29. Sticking with my previously explained view: on timeframes of 24-72 hours, painful downward moves in stocks, PMs, and forex, resolution will spit out lower SPX, higher Gold, and lower USDX.

    Indeed, while I have been bearish on the USDX for a decade--and have benefited greatly--I am so bearish now on the USDX that frankly I am spooked. Because at some point, downside risk in the USDX and the implications of such overwhelms any personal benefits. To this point: the one pillar that remains in global markets upon which many can still depend is that UST's remain anti-risk. When that changes, I sort of don't want to even think about what will unfold thereafter.

    G

    G

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  30. Cookie if you can explain some of the features of the SPX futures contract I would appreciate it. Seems like the June one is due to rollover but there is no action in the Sept SPX yet - I am interested in shorting but should I wait until the June has rolled over? Says it is the 9th which is tomorrow.

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  31. Turd unfortunately I think you're right about being range bound for a while. The EE has shown that they have the firepower to blast the price down anytime it begins to show a bit of life. They do not want silver in the 40's again. I can see only two things that would allow us to move forward:

    1) Something big breaks: The financial system implodes, the COMEX defaults, WWIII. It would have to be the end of "business as usual" to render the EE powerless.

    2) QEIII is announced publicly. This would be a big enough event that gold and silver would have to respond. Of course the EE would be the recipients of the $, so I think that they would continue to suppress things again once they let the steam out. Until item #1 happens of course..

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  32. As always - BTFD ! Have a great summer.

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  33. Interesting video presentation by James Turk while at a conference in Munich.

    http://www.goldmoney.com/video/james-turk-presentation-on-gold-and-the-US-dollar.html?gmrefcode=gata

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  34. Silver's looking really weak, so I picked up some ZSL for a day trade. At least today I figure I'll go with the downward trend. But I'm setting stops in case silver decides otherwise.

    Although it does feel funny to be "wishing silver down", and thinking backward, down = $. Weird....

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  35. Don't despair folks. This is a great opportunity to keep range trading paper and to keep stacking physical.

    I wouldn't mind if we stayed range bound between $33 and $39 all summer. It would suck if we stayed between $36.50 and $37.50 like we have so far this week. You can siphon off a lot of fiat to buy more physical with a $6 range. I'd much rather be playing this game with silver in the $30s than in the $300s. Your exposure and ability to recover from a downdraft isn't nearly as significant at these levels.

    Good luck to all!

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  36. @ Shill

    Glad UBT is working out for you, I felt bad yesterday when it was tanking.

    I soooo wanted to double up at 83.30...but chickened out. Stupid.

    Not sure what range to expect now? I will sell somewhere between 85.70 and 86.50 I think, and plan to buy back at 84.00

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  37. so silver steady w/ dollar rise while equities crashing.
    this is same scenario as last wednesday, right before silver got kicked in the teeth.
    i would not be long here.

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  38. OIL

    So the saudis say oil demand will exceed supply by 1.5 mio bbls a day by year end.

    What I don't get is, where the hell is demand coming from if the economy is collapsing?

    Either oil is coming down, or stocks are going up, IMO.

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  39. @ kurt
    i day trade using the vehicles i mentioned above.
    right now i hold
    zsl
    tza
    sh
    dust

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  40. Ok you use those instead of futures - gotchya

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  41. tense...

    All who are following the "I'm going to get super paid both ways" strategy might consider haveing buy stops just like you would do if you are long and have sell stops.

    Gold stops at 1543 or 1545.50 are pretty tight and make sense. Silver 36.85.

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  42. Ok, I'm subscribed to this blog via email and Twitter

    Twitter updates me instantly when the Turd has spoken, Google / Blogger take forever to email me!

    Turd, if you get numbers on email subs, its gonna drop by one!

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  43. For those familiar with Back to the Future,

    I'm seeing Silver as Marty McFly on his skateboard and WTI as the car he hangs on to to get pulled around town....

    Here's hoping!

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  44. Anyone notice Corn just went up a lot. Who was it here who knows what is going on in that market?

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  45. @Kurt

    Art is our grain specialist.

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  46. Take the 5 hours chart on forexpros.

    Construct a trend line connecting the lows of 32.20 and 32.98 and you will notice silver is testing this trend line on the downside. This entire formation looks like a bearish flag ?

    any views on this ?

    thank you

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  47. thank you level headed.
    your advice is always...level headed. thanks!

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  48. @Kurt ART LOMAX is the king of grains and Agriculture posts as far as I can tell. He should drop by and dial us in on whats up sometime soon. Smart guy too! Posted in prev thread at 9:39 re OPEC stuff

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  49. Somewhat meaningful humor from last year. Still good.

    http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-economy-grinds-to-halt-as-nation-realizes-money,2912/

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  50. I have your Back Turd. If your in Metals as a short term trade, your in the wrong field, stick to day trading, metals is LONG TERM. Screw the naysayers and screw the trolls...Thanks for all you do Turd.

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  51. @cookie
    No problem. Good luck to you all.

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  52. @Atlee

    Sorry for being a dumb gullible newbie BTW you totally told me so but I wouldn't listen re "IT" I'm was a dumb a**

    My official apology - thanks, cuz now I know you were really REALLY trying to help me not get F***ed.

    Peace Brother (and thanks!)

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  53. @Telsa

    no apology necessary but thanks. Everyone makes mistakes. If we didn't we would not be on this planet. Peace.

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  54. I'm with Pforth; He said "The EE has shown that they have the firepower to blast the price down anytime it begins to show a bit of life. They do not want silver in the 40's again". That was EXACTLY my thinking yesterday afternoon around end of trading. Consequently, I got out of a big chunk of my silver, as it appears to have gone virtually "flat" in a range for the foreseeable future. The EE will not allow it to rise without a continual beat-down. Going into gold on the pull-back, as the slope for increase in gold is much steeper and shows promise.

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  55. Sometimes I wish I could start my own planet! (Your invited!)
    Thanks =]

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  56. seems like a pretty indecisive day. rather be outside.
    got my stops in so if silver goes back to 37.2, i make nil.
    ciao ciao.

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  57. Darn. Stopped out of my ZSL for a loss, but it's less stressful than my usual looking and wondering if I should sell now or if it might come back up/down.

    And probably the noon raid will arive in 3,2,1... ;-)

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  58. The way I look at it, FRN's are a long ways from being worthless (although they are getting constantly eroded and worth LESS). So, I'm happy to sock my salary away there for now. I'm comfortable with my current PM holdings and I don't YET want EVERYTHING in PMs. There's a lot of uncertainty right now (isn't there always! LOL). But, I'm just going to be patient and see if there's not going to be some good new buying opportunities.

    I think one of the best ways you can take positive action right now, as well as protect your savings, is to accumulate PMs. Slow and Steady. Let that be your statement on what you think of "fiat notes" vs the traditional store of real value. As much as you can, stop playing in their "reindeer games". If you're regularly reading this blog, you probably already have a strong opinion of where the price of PMs is REALLY going. Don'w sweat the day to day stuff, if you're not actively trading it.

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  59. Turd, it's not very clear why you'd need anyone to "defend" you, nor thank them for it. No one defended your point, they only told me to go away and called me a troll which isn't much of a defense. Not a single one made a case for why you were right to dismiss Jim Rickards' thoughts on the matter which is what my original comment was in regards to.

    I was accused of supporting Rickards(I don't necessarily), pumping newsletters(I don't), etc. yet no one actually attempted to address the subject although one wonderful poster did "defend" you without having actually listened to the Rickards' interview in question. Your army is strong with knowledge. :)

    Perhaps you'd care to enlighten us with a post on why Rickards' is wrong, and I know it would please your reading audience to no extent if you were to write Mr. Rickards an open letter criticizing his comments on the matter and see how he responds. Something tells me you wouldn't do that becuase you, most likely(I'm giving you a chance here), have no idea what you're talking about when you wave off his thoughts even though he's got 30 years of high level financial experience including saving the entire financial system from collapse and you've got white out, a yogurt stand, and a blog powered by donation money. ;)

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  60. @Maradona.. have you got nothing else to do with your time?

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  61. On corn, we have a crop report coming out tomorrow morning and the ethanol inventory came out light this morning; with oil news = short covering ahead of big report tomorrow. Not the expert, just reporting what I've read on Bloomberg & DTN service.

    Not the expert by any means, so looking for Art's commentary as well.

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  62. @Maradona

    Please find something else to do. We dont give a shit.

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  63. Cost to insure Greek debt soars on Schauble letter - MarketWatch

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cost-to-insure-greek-debt-soars-on-schauble-letter-2011-06-08?link=MW_latest_news

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  64. maradona.

    You don't agree with Rickards.

    Neither does Turd.

    What's the problem again?

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  65. @Happy, maybe Maradona is Rickards?

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  66. @Maradona said:
    even though he's got 30 years of high level financial experience including saving the entire financial system from collapse and you've got white out, a yogurt stand, and a blog powered by donation money. ;)

    -------------

    Ha ha ha ha Ben Bernanke does as well, and look how that's turned out.

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  67. @Dennis
    11:00 am post edit:
    That would IMO be the Yen/Carry Trade protected from ~123 level basis Yen index....as per post Sunday night. As stated there, the Ignored Japanese problems will have huge consequences on global stability. It is out of the news for a reason. It will enter the news when needed.
    Once again, I am agreed strength in the dollar ahead. First the head fake of double bottom or lower to harm the most. Burn the fingers, so to speak, of those jumping back in metals.

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  68. MARAdona, get a life dude. No one goves a crap what you think.

    Going forward, I will not be reading your posts. I encourage everyone to do the same.

    Grasshopper

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  69. @NCOT: Have I got nothing else better to do? Than question someone who criticizes(without any insight) what might be a very legitimate answer to the "who will buy" question that everyone is pondering and scratching their head over? Well, considering I invest for a living I do have nothing else "better" to do but try and find what seems like a logical answer to the question; Turd doesn't have one but he quickly discredits Rickards' and I was hoping that others on the board would be curious as to what magical knowledge Turd has that lets him so easily write off one of the most legitimate guys in the financial world...you're not curious? Easier just to believe that Turd must know something that Rickards has no idea about?

    If you blindly believe that Turd is right and Rickards is wrong that's great. If you aren't sure it's odd that you, and other folks on this board, don't say "Hey Turd, can you expand on your dismissal of Rickards' comments...because he is one of the most knowledgeable people in the financial world" but instead you guys attack me for questioning Turd. If you don't see how silly that is then I've got a blog you can donate money to...

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  70. All the mainstream academics already support QE3. Sumner, Tyler Cowen, Paul Krugman: Now they just need to brow beat the tea partiers as the markets crash and the path will be cleared to renew the pruchases of US government bonds.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo5JEl8GHU4

    If people here like it I will be sure to mention Turd Ferguson on the next movie.

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  71. Maradona: "I'm BAAAACK!"


    Ever played that game of "whack-a-mole". Great fun, as the little fellers pop up out of their little holes you use the mallet to bop 'em on the konk so they retreat. Why do I feel this is relevant here? Maybe it's the alliteration between "mole" and "troll".

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  72. levelheaded said
    As a side note, I was a little dissapointed that when I get individually attacked TF doesn't scold them but when his favorites get their feelings hurt he promptly calls the offender a troll. Oh well,
    ++++++++++++++++++

    I missed the action. Sockeye will come to the rescue. You are one of my favs. My head is on a roller coaster. I need some level head!

    I suspect the trolls are the same few people sent here by the EE to make trouble. They have a thousand handle names and personas. I ignore all the crap. I do not want it in my mind. It screws with the mind. so I do not allow it to enter into me. Thus I do not know it is happening. and I can live in peace.

    Now back to the action at the local race track at the Comex. As the EE fights the common man in the street. We need Luke Skywalker to save the good guys from Darth Vadar.

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  73. European Rating- Agency Fari downgrades USA-Rating!

    http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/Feri-stuft-die-Bonitaet-der-USA-herab,a2560303.html&ei=pSrvTaePMceztweF0rmzCQ&sa=X&oi=translate&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBwQ7gEwAA&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.godmode-trader.de/nachricht/Feri-stuft-die-Bonitaet-der-USA-herab,a2560303.html%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3D2pt%26sa%3DG%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26prmd%3Divns

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  74. @Maradona,

    everyone here is up for a debate, sometimes its not what you say but how you say it.

    Walk into my house and pee on my carpet, you'll get kicked out. Walk in and ask where the bathroom is, you'll be more welcome.

    Get it?

    ReplyDelete
  75. Folks were here at ATW are much better than that..Ignore the Born and Bred Dopes...

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  76. I looked up a bio on Rickards. Sounds like an elite member of the EE. He even works with Fed Reserve and Darth Vadar to give away public tax money to the rich. What a guy.

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  77. Atlee,

    Any thoughts on NGD? I'm going to have to dump some I'm afraid.

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  78. If THIS is what a saved financial system looks like, I think i will take the failed one.

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  79. I gotta admit, the miner action has me worried. You've got EXK down 9% on a <1.5% move in Silver. All the majors are beaten badly.

    What would the timeline be for a recovery, do you think? They sat out the big rally, almost all peaking at around the price of silver today. How inflated could the prices of the first week of April been that we see them down 30-40%? Does a summer of 33-39 and another record quarter of earnings change things? Hitting 45 at the end of the year? Does it have to be a post SHTF where silver miners are the new printing press to make miners a value?

    I'm willing to just sit it out until silver really moves, but if they can push silver even back down to 33, this is looking like near unlimited downside. There's no way if silver closes above Monday that Miners are gonna be flush. OTOH, if silver opens even 15 cents down tomorrow, they'll have gapped down another 3%. This is pure craziness.

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  80. @Turd
    Thank you very much for having tis blog. Ive been reading it for the last couple of months (since I started investing my saved money) Unfortunately I've had some bad luck. I've been thinking of starting with investing from the 2nd half of 2010 but only started halfway march. Only a few days after I did my investments everything started to turn red. I've had some nice gains on silver turbos but also some bad losses. All in all I'm more or like break even with those. As I dont really like the gambling aspect of those leveraged products anymore I want to go full physical silver. The only thing I am wondering is:

    If the USA/ Dollar/ Comex collapses, will this immidiately drive up the spot price of silver all over the world? What if you live in China or have a healthy currency like the Swiss Frank (I believe its healthy). Sorry if this sounds really stupid but I hope someone can help me.

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  81. @MARAdona

    I did NOT defend Turd in my comment to you last night (although I would gladly, but that wasn't the point). Nor did I attack or dismiss Jim Rickards. I did ask you some pertinent questions. You did not answer or even address them. You simply continue to spout the same rhetoric over and over like an idiot.

    I am now going to observe the pig rule: Don't wrestle with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it. Cheers!

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  82. @Gabe

    Anything Paul Krugman is "For", I am "AGAINST".

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  83. Hahahaa... sounds like Someone got under MARADONK'S skin...
    Maybe you are trying to be helpful, but what do you propose to be done differently here MARADONK?
    Do you think this site has been made available w/ the intent to misinform and misguide people?
    YES OR NO?
    Most people do not give 2 sh*ts about the other guy let alone "Teach a man to fish"... EVERY DAY.
    Say and do what you want.... how many people/families have you legitimately tried to helped today MARADONK?

    ReplyDelete
  84. I missed the pissing contest, but I can clearly see that someone is wanting an all-out debate. We can all read, and we can all watch videos and look at pictures. We can also make up our own minds. Why don't you just put the information out there and let each decide on his own?

    ReplyDelete
  85. @ALL

    STOP TAKING THE TROLLS BAIT !!!

    That little bitch Rickards cheerleader won't go away EVER if you keep feeding his ego. Classic inferiority complex - has to talk trash about Turds amazingly successful blog because he envies Turd and has ZERO success with his own blog. He's just distracting us so - and making us angry.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Greece is the Word!!
    http://theeveningchronicle.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  87. @ssk

    Dumped it this morning and doubled my exk short first thing this morning. It looks like things may get very ugly this summer. Is this the best price to dump. don't know but it was begining to get too far out of hand. Good luck

    ReplyDelete
  88. @SSK
    I know you asked atlee but I'll chime in for you. Everyone here knows I do not like the miners. I've posted twice about it so no need to go into it. Having said that, this is the spot that it is likely to bounce. The low today was 8.91 and the 200 day is 8.88. Last of 8.95. 9 has been very strong support before. If you get a bounce here it may put in a low. I would see if the 200 day can hold.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Atlee,

    I hear you. I got trapped with the slow dribbling drops and today just really hurt. My stop is 9.87. I need to protect capital. Not a good week on the beach.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Treasurys stay up after 10-year auction
    Indirect bidders buy 50.6% of 10-year auction
    Bidders offer $3.23 for each $1 in 10-yr debt
    Treasury sells 10-year notes at 2.967%

    ReplyDelete
  91. I'm not sure if you guys think you're getting under my skin or you really don't care about not knowing why Turd feels that Rickards' opinion is only worth a casual dismissal. I'm assuming, by this point, that your choice to attack me rather than ask questions regarding the topic means none of you actually care about what will happen in the market; if you did at least one of you would have asked Turd for an explanation by now.

    Good luck guys, you're going to need it!

    ReplyDelete
  92. looking like 36.80 is now a struggle... bounced off there 3 times today...

    ReplyDelete
  93. Correction:8.87

    Sorry, not really focusing today.

    ReplyDelete
  94. July corn limit up again. Notwithstanding Bernankenstein's plug for rice, I don't see sake replacing Maker's Mark...market closes 2:15 NY time, so a fun one to watch in between PMs and WTI

    Meanwhile, Fed out with more word salad at 2:00 with the Biege Book

    ReplyDelete
  95. @SSK
    even if it bounces these mkts arent going anywhere for the next fes months. Higher probability we are goin lower than higher.

    I would not buy silver at 36.85 with stolen money. Your max upside is 37.50. Your downside is at least 35.

    good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Levelheaded,

    Thanks for the post. I too have been looking at that 200 day average. Shitty place to sell, but I just might have to.

    ReplyDelete
  97. SSK
    you on the eastern shore of Md or Va?

    ReplyDelete
  98. @SSK
    No problem. Just trying to help. I like your stop. Might as well make it prove it. No point in being down $2 and then selling 5 cents higher than the 200 day.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Can someone take a look at James G. Rickards' explanation of perpetual QE going forward, and explain how this differs materially from Turd's outlook? Or offer a better, more direct source to learn about J.G. Rickards' thoughts on the matter:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/11_Jim_Rickards_-_QE_is_dead,_long_live_QE!.html

    "The Fed is now like a 400-pound man who can eat 5,000 calories per day without gaining weight because his morbidly obese metabolism requires it to function. The discussion of QE, QE2 and QE3 has become irrelevant. What we have is permanent QE until such time as the Fed decides to tighten financial conditions. This is unlikely to happen until mid-2012 at the earliest, perhaps later in view of the housing double-dip and increasing oil prices. In any case, QE will be with us for an “extended period” no matter what the Fed announces."

    ReplyDelete
  100. Both. Chincoteague island. Go back and forth. It's hotter than hades today. Perfect for the beach. Can't believe I'm inside dealing with the latest wave of selling. BUt here I am.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Dollar failing at 74 and the 50Ma on the 2hr chart. That's a good sign.

    A move above 74 at this point would not be a good thing.

    So far so good.

    ReplyDelete
  102. @NCOT
    re: 36.80
    Be mindful of the fact that (so far) we haven't even touched yesterday's 4pm close or (slightly higher) overnight high. The overhead resistance isn't really 36.80, it's really the lack of buyers anticipating fresh 37+ action. Today's move up was reciprocal to that OPEC walkout, likely small short cover and small gamers looking for an "in" on a dip. Otherwise we'd probably have tested 36 at least once more and maybe broken through. That's what will happen tomorrow, barring PM positive news, if overnight doesn't bite again tonight.

    Lower highs, lower lows. It's, at best, a hold signal - in a bull run. Since we're somewhere not bull right now, it's a sell or wait for better days to buy signal.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Might have missed the conversation, but you'd think oil's rallly would help us out here.

    ReplyDelete
  104. In an effort to expand my horizons, I activated my Zulutrade Forex account today. Stuck 500 beans in it and selected goldseekradio.com as my signal provider. Chris Waltzek is the host of the show and is also one sharp money making dude.

    He predominantly trades USD/EUR. I'm hoping the financial chaos on both sides of the pond makes for nice moves and returns.

    Waltzek sports a 92% win rate. Man do I hope that continues. This is SUCH an easy way to finally gain some exposure to forex.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @SSK
    just take care of biz and forget it. enjoy your time on beach. plenty of time for this nonsense later. Been to Chincoteague. Nice place.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Always more to consider. I would think that WTI isn't going to like the Beige Book, which is probably going to say everything sucks, so who needs oil this month. On the other hand, PMs might like more weakness as a sign of more printing.

    Plus we've got ECB and BOE announcing interest rate decisions tomorrow--anybody think there's a chance of a raise there? Not me.

    Anyway, took off 1/2 my WTI position at breakeven - a major victory given the last week; waiting to see what's next.

    Lot of negative vibes on PMs, but, hey, numbers is numbers and fear is still winning.

    ReplyDelete
  107. oil is up for one reason: Iran and Venezuela got their way and ended the OPEC meeting early. If oil wasn't up as much as it is now, we would be lower in the PM's.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Thanks Atlee. Will do. Or try to do.

    ReplyDelete
  109. @ Shill

    The cost to insure Greek debt has been too high recently to be of any use to anyone dumb enough to be holding greek bonds.

    So anyone holding it is pretty much stuck, 50% loss more or less.

    Some german banks claim they have already written down the debt, but you can't believe anything these days.

    Greece on its own is not that big a deal, but clearly if they go then there will be no point trying to save Ireland or Portugal, and then we start to see some serious bank pain.

    My understanding is the euro banks are already short $500 BILLION in capital...so add another trillion to that, pretty soon you are talking real money.

    This is why I want to short the euro.

    But I guess it could go to 1.50 as the can gets kicked down the road for a few more months.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Truth v. Fiction:

    Truth: Physical silver has no counter party risk. An oz. in your hand is no one's promise.

    Fiction: a FRN is a store of value.

    Example:

    On Feb. 28, 2011, it cost $33.92, plus $3.00 premium to buy one oz. silver ASE from CMI (note, this is the unit cost, but there is a hefty minimum order). Delivery occurred within one week. Today, it costs $36.70 plus $4.00 to buy the very same one oz. coin, with delivery time of over one month.

    So, the cost differential today, not including the delay of time, or the time/value of the delay, equals $3.78 ($40.70 - $36.92 = $3.78). The local coin guy is buying ASE's at $40.00/oz. or better.

    Had one held that same money in the stupid FRN-sanctioned bank, one would have made 1.25%, or almost a whole penny by now in nominal terms. How much did purchasing power decline, though?

    Truth v. Fiction: is physical silver a better store of value than FRN's? You decide.

    When dorky trolls come aboard to hijack the discussion, I simply go back to my truth vs. fiction detector.

    I am plenty okay with physical silver being spot-price range bound for the time being. Uptrend line is still strong, with strong fundamentals. Right now, silver should be between the daily chart channel boundaries of $41.50 and $36.00, which I drew in on Netdania based on the low from August 2010, the low of Jan 25, and the low of May 23. No problem.

    Now all you trolls, kindly take your worthless comments and go back to Kitco.

    ReplyDelete
  111. This may have something to do with corn's up day: Ethanol production is up to highest level since January, and stocks (inventory) are down. This was reported today.

    My other theory is that it's my garden's fault - some critter went through the corn section of my garden and clipped about a third of my corn stalks, as I found when watering last night. :(

    ReplyDelete
  112. Crude inventories fell 4.845 million barrels also; didn't hurt the spurt. Looking weaker now below the 101.50 line

    ReplyDelete
  113. Having difficulty making sense of the fact that
    with the S and P broadly flat, the ventures
    exchange and even the HUI engaged in a bloodbath
    where 3-4 % drops are the norm. Does one assume
    that the S and P is getting some kind of gigantic and continuous blood transfusion to
    help keep its lifelike appearance ?

    ReplyDelete
  114. That was a fun COMEX close. I'm looking for any semblance of a bounce to close positions. THis is a hurting day for many of us, I presume.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Unsolicited advice:
    Unless they announce the begining of QE 3 tomorrow, there is a world of hurt coming down on the paper mkt. Keep in mind the trading range Turd mentioned this morning and position your paper accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  116. My guess is that a lot of traders were short oil going into the meeting, and covered when it ended that way.

    The Saudis made it pretty clear they will pump whatever it takes to meet any shortfall (yeah yeah I have heard all about their inability to pump more)

    Just wait until Libya gets back online. Even if they need to rebuild some facilities, the news alone will be enough to hit oil hard.

    And reality is that there's way too much money at stake for Libya not to get pumping at full speed asap. It won't take long for them to get going again, months I am willing to bet.

    ReplyDelete
  117. "Does one assume
    that the S and P is getting some kind of gigantic and continuous blood transfusion to
    help keep its lifelike appearance ?

    --------------------------------------

    That is the result of two things. QE money goes to the fed's Primary Dealers who prop up the indicies.

    And the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), who actively buy the indicies.

    You can also include the Fed's POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) as the source of funding.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  118. @humahuaca
    I'm pretty sure Libya's new Central Bank will start moving the oil out at exactly the pace that best suits their needs...lending money as needed at favorable low rates to help rebuild infrastructure, they're helpful like that :)

    ReplyDelete
  119. @ssk
    I live on the ocean on the east coast. nothing more beautiful than watching the sun rise over the ocean. This mkt is not bouncing today. do what ya got to do and enjoy your time at the ocean.

    ReplyDelete
  120. On CNBS the other day, somebody predicted Dow 10k for the bottom of this down trend and the anchors scoffed, etc. I've got that say, the very thought of that number kind of excites me. A dose of reality would do the sheeple good.

    For those of us watching DGR for 1:1...time for gold to start working on closing that range from the low end :)

    ReplyDelete
  121. Good luck guys, you're going to need it!

    ------------------

    YAWN!!!!!!!!!!!! I heard good luck guys when silver was $5 bucks...STFU and go away.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Happy to announce that I just recieved a FedEx package, with the paperwork and deed for property I bought in the Caribbean.

    When my kidsget out of college in 7 years, I am outta here.

    Can't wait.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  123. Turd,

    im not sure if you or anyone bothered to reply to my statement as to whyyou think the pennant for silver should break to the upside... you negated the big drop that we had from 50 allows us to form a bearish flag... and has the possibility to drop to 29?? Have you taken this into consideration? Has the rest of the members here as well..

    Thanks, and I like your work... WIllie speaks highly of it in the last letter.

    ReplyDelete
  124. @humahuaca

    I did very well on UBT...thank you..And yes I will short the Euro @ 1.50.

    ReplyDelete
  125. @Pailin,

    I agree, but be careful what you wish for. A stock market drop like that can cause a short-term (and for me short term is a few or several months) hammer to drop on metals and commodities. On the bright side, short term interest rates would go to 0 again. If that's a bright side.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @ILUVPMS
    I won't speak for Turd, but there are a number of us that see a larger seasonal pattern here bottoming anwhere from 30 to 22. Until the QE juice gets turned back on, some of us are short term bears.

    ReplyDelete
  127. ME short term bear. Joined EE yesterday. Still stacking though but paper bear.

    ReplyDelete
  128. @agauinvest
    I'm already reasonably prepared for any eventuality short of a dude sneaking up behind me with a loaded gun in Mad Max world. Dow 10k won't be Mad Max, but some will think it is based on their 401k quarterly statements :)

    The best thing in the world would be if everybody that had assets locked up in retirement accts, borrowed against it and paid off all their debts. That would push back on the banks and remove much of the slavery in this country. Using the banks products (stocks) to try to beat the bank on debt is a loser's game...at least until this country has positive GDP resulting from something other than govt spending. That's when stocks will actually be earning their keep again.

    ReplyDelete
  129. You guys realize that every time you retaliate to these douchebag trolls it feeds them and they keep combing back, right?

    Love the math breakdown on gold, Turd. Hope it goes down that way as it does seem quite likely and many "insiders" are predicting almost the exact same future trend.

    ReplyDelete
  130. @atlee
    Keep stackin' baby :)
    I'm East Coast too, but no ocean view :(

    ReplyDelete
  131. Atlee, you still short oil?

    ReplyDelete
  132. I'll touch on this Rickards thing one time because it's a non-issue. I do this NOT for Spalding but for interested Turdites.

    Rickards is obviously a smart and well-connected guy. However, when I listened to the interview on Kwn, he tied himself up in so many competing arguments and theories that he didn't know if he was coming or going.
    He made a statement that the banks and hedge funds are held "hostage" by the Fed and will, therefore, loan the cash necessary to fund the federal government in 2012. This is preposterous as is his idea of "interest rate caps". Classic Keynesian nonsense. Just like price controls, interest rate caps will never work. Central planning can't and won't work in a world where capital flows freely.

    ReplyDelete
  133. just back from lunch...my best performer...dust.
    will europe raise interest rates? well that might send the euro up, dollar down, in which case gold/silver/markets won't crash, making ben's 'prediction' that commodities will come down wrong. i'm sure merkel and obama must have talked about the plan to crash the american markets...
    euro likes to spit in america's face though.

    ReplyDelete
  134. @ pailin,
    it is really weird seeing a my little pony talk about finance...i had the whole pony dream spa castle, and i don't remember any conversations on the dow.

    ReplyDelete
  135. @flaunt

    No. They picked my stop off. Took me out at 100.70 July mini contract. Was short from 99.73.

    ReplyDelete
  136. @ mad max pony pailin:
    http://videosift.com/video/Robot-Chicken-My-Little-Pony-Apocalypse-Ponies
    word ver: unfun

    ReplyDelete
  137. If someone could tell me for sure whether the Dow will hold 11.7K this month or if the USD can or can't break 74 by Monday, I could trade something with conviction. Meanwhile, bored sitting here on my investment hands and doing my actual job work.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Well, I think there is a broad misunderstanding of Rickard's interview on KWN. First, the thesis of financial repression is not Jim's. It's Carmen Reinhart's. So, in that regard, Rickard's is not telling you so much what he thinks--but is instead just explaining the paper. I would not reject the thesis, btw. Just as in every great inflation, a number of large players are indeed trapped in government bonds because of allocation mandates. Again, Rickard's is a huge advocate of gold, is very concerned about inflation, and regards the FED as conducting a war on savings. These are the themes sounded out in Reinhart's paper.

    G

    ReplyDelete
  139. @ Shill

    Glad you made out ok on UBT. I just missed selling at 86.30, dammit.

    I might keep it overnight though...really not sure. I'd like to sell above 86 and I'd buy TBT if it goes even further.

    I really don't think we'll see Euro at 1.50, but you never know. I have a very small short in it now, just to keep me paying attention.

    Of course, if it gets to 1.50, it will look like we should wait for 1.52 or 1.55 to short, as always, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  140. @ agauinvest -
    real time $ chart
    http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart

    ReplyDelete
  141. so the cycle traders are saying buy today. They say pm mkt goes up through friday. They say best price for short for all of next week is sunday night.

    My magic eight ball says they are wrong, but if you believe in short term cycles and wave theory, there is a touch of hope.

    ReplyDelete
  142. MaraDona - we wish you all the very best too. Pls take good care of you and yours. Indeed, it is a tough world out there and looks to get tougher.

    Best wishes, LM

    ReplyDelete
  143. Well, I chickened out and liquidated all my WTI just off the short bounce we saw at a small loss. Screw it, I feel better on the sidelines. Naught but collecting phyzz and enjoying lower gas prices for me all summer long.

    GLTA.

    ReplyDelete
  144. @ Pailin

    I think your avatar should be mad max. Mind if I call you max? Just kidding ya know.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Atlee, sorry to hear you got stopped out. I thought about trying to establish a short position but that OPEC mini-fiasco made me think twice. It's interesting that gold is not up with oil, however.

    Must be nice living on the ocean. One of these days though that's where I'm going to be! :)

    ReplyDelete
  146. @humahuaca

    Imo, betting on anything going according to plan in the MENA at this point seems risky.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Quick post. Will try for more tonight.

    @Tesla, I'm not so smart, just read a lot and I do have some contacts in the grain industry.

    Agree with DE, pre-report positioning today and oil up helping corn. Ethanol production up so no rationing from this industry yet. Fundamentals still bullish IMO.

    Kurt, expect big trading ranges with $7.50 corn. Looks to me like we are in a trading range from 7.20 gap to 7.80 high. Trade it.

    Next big story to affect grain trade is flooding on the Missouri River. Not sure it is getting the headlines it deserves.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Still have my small bid XAU 1525 on. We're 1533 right now, so it might get tapped today/overnight. Have mixed emotions on that but (at least for now) now not pulling the bid.

    @CookieMonster
    MLP is the anti-Soros. Be happy :)

    ReplyDelete
  149. @ flaunt

    except for the hurricane season, it is great.
    I was early on the crude but the chart pattern set up was good. I have never had much luck trading crude.

    ReplyDelete
  150. @CookieMonster

    what do you mean by the financials when you say the financials are telegraphing where the stock market will go.

    I like your trading the ETF's. I might choose that. I really need to find someone to sit down with to discuss all these various options of commodities, etf's, options on everything etc.

    I like the limited risk that a short etf gives. it seems to me it is sort of like an option. but then there are options on the etf's.

    crazy world all these possibilities.

    Thanks ahead of time.

    Peace

    Sockeye

    ReplyDelete
  151. @atlee
    Max is cool, but the pony stays...we need Hope You Can Believe In around here.

    ReplyDelete
  152. @ Robert L P

    Yeah, I can't argue, and I am more or less thinking out loud here.

    I have no position in oil, but follow it actively as my interest is trading USD/CAD and stock and bond indices.

    So being short CAD is like being short oil, and it just feels like the right position right now.

    If we get a decent dip in either, like par for USD/CAD or $85 oil, I'll be a buyer.

    If MENA blows up and oil skyrockets, I'm screwed, but then my back up plan is wait for $150 oil to kill US and Canadian economies, and I'll buy then.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Pailin, wouldn't a unicorn be more appropriate? ;)

    ReplyDelete
  154. @Cookiemonster -
    got it. See, all I had to do was pay attention to something else for a little while. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  155. Unless I am really missing something here, the question of whether Rickards is right or wrong is a red herring. Whether the bonds are purchased by the central bank or its member banks is academic. Call it QE or call it something else, either way the US Government continues to live on borrowed money that it is not able to pay back. Which, I believe, was Turd's main point.

    ReplyDelete
  156. @ sockeye
    overlay rifin financial services index rifin.x w/ s&p 500

    ReplyDelete
  157. B-word getting options orders filled this late.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Atlee I'm playin the dead cat bounce here......short covering and bottom pickers playin the same game.......EXK GPL

    ReplyDelete
  159. Regarding what Jim Richards said on KWN, does it really matter who will be supplying the FIAT outta thin air to buy bonds? If it's thin air then it's thin air. Makes no difference if it's Fed's thin air or WallSt's. Someone somehow has to come up with 1.6T this year (and a ton more the years after) to cover Uncle Sam's Ponzi @$$.

    ReplyDelete
  160. @ sockeye
    http://etfdailynews.com/2011/02/24/the-perfect-storm-for-the-next-leg-down-tza-dxd-sds-faz-vxx-spy-tna-fas-dia-eem-bgz-bgu-sh/

    ReplyDelete
  161. @Rui
    Indeed. The only way to truly destroy gold/silver secular bull (vs. knocking the price back from time to time) is to allow rates to honestly reassert themselves to fair risk/reward levels, stop deficit spending, streamline budget year over years for years, and begin paying down principal on national debt. This is not austerity. It's called responsibly working within your means. Otherwise mo' money is required and it has to be the fiat kind. So they'll either steal it or print it.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Hi Guys, newbie here and just trying to decide what silver and gold hold for tomorrow and whether to get out of my long position in Great Panther Silver and take my losses and wait or hold as it tests double bottom low with likely good financials coming out Tuesday. Hope the question is not inappropriate here.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Just curious and never knew who to ask about this - anyone else have an easy time splitting the bid/ask when buying, but almost never successful getting a better price when writing?

    ReplyDelete
  164. @kliguy

    OK. that is fair play. I think thee is more coming but not one way street.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Atlee, looks like silver has bounced off (to the downside) five times today around the 36.70ish area. Is that some sort of topping pattern or meaningless?

    ReplyDelete
  166. My JUL11 40 silver calls are deep under water (bought effectively 0.8, compared to around 0.3 now). In the worst case silver stays between the 35-37 range this month, so I am thinking of buying an AUG11 34/35 put, when silver gets above $37 (during the proper trading hours that is) and sell some JUL11 43 calls.
    Any other views?

    ReplyDelete
  167. Rickards was explaining Rienhart's paper, expaining why those theories basically ARE Fed Policy, and then goes on to explain why it won't work.

    Then Turd attacks Rickards, saying IT WON'T WORK!! Well, Rickards already said IT WON'T WORK!!

    The only difference is timing. Turd is looking at a 1 year timeframe. Rickards thinks they can still kick the can for 2-3 years before the wheels really come off. Both solid opinions worthy of consideration. But is it worth getting into a Civil War on the blog over? I don't think so.

    ReplyDelete
  168. @ flaunt

    We are really in neutral territory. It can go anyway. My bias is bearish to flat until we get something to move the market definately back into a trend. The channel is 37.50 to 32 and change. Some would say the top is 39.50 and that is probably more accurate.

    Yesterday after Benny we got no movement. then we had that usd/jyp cross thing, and we have the seasonals on us. We also have japan is a complete disater much worse than anyone thought. we are coming to the end of QE 2 with no official annnouncement of a continuation. We have a lot of headwin here. Selling paper rallies and buying physical on dips in my summertime thinking at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Insiders said they'd be shorting tech, emerging markets, s & p, financials... and looky there, they're all getting destroyed.

    You're either on the inside or you're on the outside.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Off topic but this will affect a lot of people.

    Missouri River Flooding

    ReplyDelete
  171. @ flaunt

    I hope that made sense. I was typing quickly while watching something else. slv can go either way. the bouncing off the 36.70 area is probably because their is a moving average line there on shorter time frames. 18 period on my charts.
    I dont think we get QE 3 without some pain first. If they flush the risk trade we can go lower. a lot lower. Fundo longer term we go much higher so by physical on weakness,

    ReplyDelete
  172. by slv i mean silver not the eft damn

    ReplyDelete
  173. Eric, you're right, and I don't want any part of a civil war. We cannot afford dissension in the ranks nor among the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    Dude, Tinka getting clobbered today. TKRFF down almost 16% to .413 Bid. Maybe it's extra soft on the Peru election outcome, but that guy will moderate his rhetoric now that's he's in power. They all tend to do that. I'll continue to keep an eye on Tinka, they've got a great Ag resource. Now nearly 44% off its 52 wk highs. But there's probably a bit more decline left in it so I'll hold fire for now.

    Has the Bragg ACV helped your agita?

    ReplyDelete
  174. well this is interesting.
    everyone waiting on trichet's move.
    1278 on s&p might hold and we go higher tomorrow.
    very, very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Thanks Atlee, I understand what you're saying. I think the bernank walked a tightrope yesterday but the markets wanted a "bernanke put." I guess this is when we find out whether things are trading on fundamentals or liquidity.

    ReplyDelete
  176. ewc58

    I haven't been faithful on the ACV everyday, but I'd say YES, when I take it, it definitely seems to do some good. In fact, less of a problem lately even when I don't take it! So bottom line, YES YES YES. :D

    OMG, miners are ugly. We have consensus on that. Pull out a chart of GDXJ though. Draw a line at today's price, straight across back to October. It's been support a bunch of times. Will it hold now? No idea, I'm just clutching at straws like everybody else, but it's food for thought.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

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  177. I don't like the 50MA crossing the 200MA on the 10 minute chart. It happens sometime without consequence, especially while te daily is flaggin down, but it is negative evidence.

    ReplyDelete
  178. Look at Gold and Silver gain in late trade...Sweet!

    REAL MONEY FOLKS not that paper your chasing..Well ya I chase it as well, but I never lose faith in my real goal.

    ReplyDelete
  179. @Hum

    I will be buying TBT on Friday, and hold for 2 days, I am doing well in that pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  180. I like the 13 day MA touch and bounce today, would like to see a close near 1540. We're rallying, we may get it.

    ReplyDelete
  181. Bending and not breaking. It just doesn't "feel" like it wants to crack.

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  182. @ Humahuaca;

    It occurs to me that, for the last few years, OPEC has had many squabbles over member countries over-producing. This will probably continue, and the bad vibes from this meeting might be the straw that breaks the camel-jockey's back. In other words, this might be the beginning of the end of OPEC! In the mean time, the Saudis are scared sh*tless of the "Arab Spring", and the Iranians ending up running the show. I expect the Saudis to go rogue and flip off OPEC entirely and produce like hell. This should drive crude down relatively quickly. It has come to a point where the Arabs must choose sides, and it way not be so much a sectarian issue as a pro/anti western issue.

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  183. Strong finish. SLV and GLD. Especially SLV.

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  184. Rob McEwen's XAU looks tempting, I thought it
    would be more tightly held than that. Tempting
    or not, Santa says we have an eight bagger on
    the way with fizz - maybe a bird in the hand will
    be worth three in a bush, probably we should all
    stop looking for shortcuts and start learning the noble and ancient art of stacking.....

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  185. COMEX silver supply dwindling

    http://profitimes.com/free-articles/comex-silver-supply-continues-to-decrease-sharply

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  186. Turd, don't worry, the chart is telling me to expect a strong rally tomorrow in everything across the board, this definitely includes silver, I bought all my silver back today, I'm going to celebrate this evening, yes even before they hatch... LOL!!!

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  187. @ Russh

    That's what it looks like to me...if the saudis really have the extra capacity. I'm not sure why they are so pissed about the whole thing, why not just pump like mad, since all the other guys cheated for decades?

    @ Shill

    Finally sold my UBT at the end of the day...it was like pulling teeth to sell above $86.

    That probably means it will shoot to $88 tomorrow, haha.

    I might buy TBT tomorrow...if the price is right.

    Almost embarrased to admit I bought a small position in SSO too...just seems like time for a bounce, nothing more.

    By far my best trade continues to be buying CAD at 1.02 and selling at 1.0240-50

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  188. huma, we're definitely going to see $150 oil.

    But the timing of your CAD short may work out. Thought I remembered you saying buy CAD at 1.2 :)

    Timing is everything tho. It does look like the dollar might rally up to 74.5 or more.. who knows.

    What's your price target with the CAD short?

    ck

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  189. Jimmy Rogers coming on CNBS RIGHT NOW! It's hot as hell here in Texas right now. Think I'll build an ice cream truck and make the big bucks! ;)

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  190. Can any of you experienced traders offer suggestions on resources on options trading (book, web sites, etc.)? I don't want to waste everyone's time asking quetions without trying educating myself first. Thanks.

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  191. @russh, please fill me on on what Jim Rogers says, his info is the most valuable commodity :0

    Ex partner of Soros.. I'm sure he has no insider info.

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  192. @Freddie Mercury

    The CBOE offers free options trading webinars. I also recommend that you check out investopedia.com. They have a broad range of free resources, including trading tutorials, glossary of economic terms, wealth-building tutorials, etc.

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  193. @kasscoos89;

    I'm paraphrasing, so you guys cut me a break. Rogers sez that right now he is mainly holding commodities and currencies long. He is holding some USDs until he sees the opportunity for a good trade. Still bullish on Asia. Sees another leg down in US economy and coninued malais in US equities.

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